STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 12 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 12, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 162 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 235 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 299 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1356
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 11, 2005

Dow... 10,685.89 +91.48 (+0.86%)
Nasdaq... 2,174.55 +16.74 (+0.78%)
S&P 500... 1,237.81 +8.68 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.33% -0.07 (-1.59%)
Gold future... 450.90 +8.90 (+1.97%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

There Always is a Bull Market Somewhere,
but There Never is a Bull Market Everywhere (for long)

It’s an expression to which I was introduced after coming on board FSO, and one that is used universally in the financial community, from the logical and studious, to the television frauds. “There’s always a bull market somewhere.” It makes investors comfortable that their adviser is going to sift through all information to identify the location of the only bull market in the world. Trouble is that so too is everyone else’s adviser is looking (somewhere) for the bull market. In today’s super liquefied and inflated global economy, with so much money looking for a bull market home, there is not only a bull market somewhere; there is almost a bull market everywhere! A scan of global exchange-traded funds using a point-and-figure analysis reveals practically all global stock market indices as well as most US sectors are now in bullish trends. While it may be a safe bet that there always is a bull market somewhere, it is probably unsustainable when there appears to be a bull market everywhere.

Is the bull market everywhere sustainable? When a key component of economic growth, oil, is in a bull market, it is unlikely that a bull market everywhere is sustainable. When low cost money appears to be trending toward high cost money, it is unlikely that a bull market everywhere is sustainable. Cracks are beginning to show in the fundamentals of companies fueling the US upper middle class spending spree and it seems to me that this is where the everywhere-bull market will end.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The stock market rallied today with all major indices up by about 3/4 of a percent. Practically all sectors seemed to go up by a similar amount. The market is completely ignoring the rise in oil prices (for now) as crude oil closed today at $66.75 per barrel. I cannot come up with any explanation why the market is ignoring oil except that the impact on corporate earnings is still over one quarter away, and the market is only looking to the next quarter. For its part, although it is in a bull market, oil appears to be due for a correction. Over the last 3 years oil has kept in touch with the 2 trendlines depicted in the chart below.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[bluestateguy]

2. 3 years and 162 days

My God, what will this country look like then.

:scared:

[ozymandius]

11. I shudder to think.

Hopefully, by then, the people responsible for the current mess will have been run out of town on a rail.

[AnneD]

21. You forget Ozy

the last minute Presidential Pardons. I predict that he will give such a huge number of them as to make congress consider curtailing that privilege. Too bad Congress can't get it togather and fashion a law NOW, before it is too late.

[ozymandius]

25. Doubt they would do that.

Because many may have already pinned their hopes on Bush pardoning them.

[legin]

3. A correction for the 1980 oil price (inflation adjusted) ??

I posted $82 the other day (got the figure from the Daily Telegraph).

But I can find $94.48 here:
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp

[legin]

4. The graph hopefully (bit out of practice)

[legin]

5. The graph appears not to show recent prices

these figures would make the red line go up quite a bit.

[ozymandius]

6. Thank you for this.

Even with relative value between then and now - the price still hurts. I paid $2.50/gallon in the Atlanta suburbs this morning. The really sad component to filling up with prices like this is the person at the same pump before me could only put $6.00 worth of gas into their tank. I hope they were only filling up a gas can, not their car.

[AnneD]

22. Morning Marketeers

:donut: I am using more gas because of job # 2, but I have a rickity but reliable Tercell. Gas is $2.35 (I found it at $2.23 yesterday but price jacked up today). I take a Jackson to fill er up now. I don't know how others and poor make it here-our public transport is spotty or poor. People here HAVE begun to change their habits (more car pools, fewer trips etc).

[ozymandius]

7. pre-open blather and opening numbers

9:31
Dow 10,659.78 -26.11 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,157.82 -16.73 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,234.04 -3.77 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 42.97 -0.37 (-0.85%)
NYSE Volume 18,659,000
Nasdaq Volume 40,566,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the cash market, as futures indications trade below fair value... While another record in oil is again weighing on early sentiment, it is worth noting that the market was resilient yesterday even as oil hit $66/bbl, getting a boost from bonds and leadership in the Energy sector... Bonds are up again and Energy could provide additional support after Bear Stearns upgraded COP, OXY and AHC... Tech, however, could be weak all day following Dell's tepid sales guidance

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady following trade data, still indicating a weak start for the indices... The June Trade Deficit widened to $58.8 bln from $55.3 bln in May, exceeding expectations of $57.2 bln but still below Feb.'s record $61.0 bln figure... Bonds have also held firm, as the 10-yr note is still up 5 ticks to yield 4.28%, while the dollar remains weak against the euro and yen

[ozymandius]

8. Trade Deficit Up As Oil Imports Hit High

The Commerce Department reported that the imbalance between what America sells abroad and what it imports rose to $58.8 billion in June, an increase of 6.1 percent from the May deficit of $55.4 billion.

So far this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $686 billion, 11 percent higher than last year's all-time record of $617.6 billion. The trade performance has presented President Bush with a political headache as critics have charged that the soaring imbalance represents the failure of the administration's free trade policies.

The June deficit came as U.S. exports of goods and services rose by $52 million to a record of $106.8 billion, reflecting higher sales of telecommunications equipment, aircraft engines and chemical fertilizers.

Imports, however, rose a much larger $3.44 billion to also set a record at $165.7 billion, reflecting an increase in both the price and volume of petroleum shipments and higher imports of toys, clothing and other consumer goods.

more...

[ozymandius]

9. Oil Prices Hit Record $66.15 Per Barrel

BUDAPEST, Hungary - Crude oil prices remained in record territory after soaring to new highs Friday past $66 a barrel as reports of new U.S. refinery outages rekindled fears that gasoline supplies in the world's biggest consumer would struggle to meet rising demand.

A spate of refinery glitches, an unusually active hurricane season in the U.S. and concerns over Iran's decision to resume uranium conversion activities weighed heavily on people's minds, pushing prices upward, analysts said.

-cut-

With bullish sentiment unabated and crude prices hitting consecutive highs this week, analysts expect front-month crude contracts to test the $70 a barrel threshold.

more...

[ozymandius]

10. Stocks Are Trading Lower on Oil Prices

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are trading lower Friday as oil touches $66 a barrel, pushing equity markets lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average is down 22.69 points, the Nasdaq is off 15.29 points and the S&P is down 3.07 points.

America's trade deficit increased sharply in June as surging oil prices pushed petroleum imports to an all-time high. The politically sensitive deficit with China also set a record.

more...

[loudsue]

13. G'mornin' Marketeers! Any news on the Dollar yet?

Seems like the rest of the world is "pulling the rug out" (great cartoon, Ozy!) from under the dollar...slowly but surely.

Well, not THAT slowly!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

17. Good morning loudsue. Here's some dollar news.

Forex - Dollar steady at lower levels as markets brace for US trade numbers

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was steady at lower levels against the euro and pound as markets braced for a widening in the US trade deficit in data due for release at 1230 GMT today.

'Today the trade data will be pivotal,' said Mark Austin at HSBC.

'If our analysis is correct, the market has been ignoring the strong cyclical data, the better treasury budget data and beginning to focus on the forthcoming deteriorating trend in the trade data,' he added.

Many reckon the US trade deficit may well exceed the consensus estimate of a 57 bln stg gap, to levels around 60 bln usd due to higher oil prices and a surge in imports from China and Japan.

more...

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/08/12/afx2179017.html

[ozymandius]

18. Forex - US dollar rebounds vs yen in Asian trade on Japan Q2 GDP, equities

SINGAPORE (AFX) - The US dollar regained some lost ground against the yen in mid afternoon trade here after Japan announced second quarter GDP data that disappointed, prompting a slight pullback in Japanese stocks, dealers said.

But they noted the greenback's modest rebound from an overnight slump in New York may be short-lived if US international trade data for June due for release today does not come in better than market expectations. China reported yesterday that its trade surplus increased to 10.4 bln usd in July, the second-highest on record, and this is fueling concerns of another sharp increase in the US trade gap deficit.

-cut-

Concerns about the robustness of the American economy, some upbeat economic reports from Japan and worries that some central banks may be continuing to reduce holdings of US dollar denominated assets combined to push the dollar to fresh multi-week lows against both the euro and the yen in New York last night.

However the dollar had recouped some of those losses by mid afternoon in Asia.

more...

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/08/12/afx2178763.html

[loudsue]

20. Thanks, Ozy! "Steady at lower levels"?????

Dontcha just love the spin on that?

:kick::kick::kick:

[ozymandius]

24. kinda like "destitute with promising outlook for further

destituteness..."

[ozymandius]

12. the bleeding continues

9:43
Dow 10,645.53 -40.36 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,155.22 -19.33 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 1,232.67 -5.14 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 43.00 -0.34 (-0.78%)
NYSE Volume 98,626,000
Nasdaq Volume 117,692,000

[ozymandius]

14. numbers and blather

9:51
Dow 10,632.55 -53.34 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,152.20 -22.35 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,230.77 -7.04 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 43.05 -0.29 (-0.67%)
NYSE Volume 156,398,000
Nasdaq Volume 175,114,000

9:40AM: Market opens lower, as a disappointment from Dell and record oil incite profit-taking following yesterday's rally... Even though more than 90% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings, and the market has shifted its focus to concerns about rising oil prices and the possibility of a lackluster economic report here or there, Dell Inc.'s (DELL 36.33 -3.25) disappointing quarterly report has weighed most heavily on the market this morning...

Last night, Dell matched analysts' Q2 earnings forecasts of $0.38 per share; however, revenues of $13.4 bln fell short of an expected $13.7 bln - the first time significant sales miss since the Jan 2001 quarter, prompting management to lower its Q3 sales outlook... Separately, investors will get a preliminary read on Aug. consumer sentiment (consensus 96.5) within the next few minutes...

[ozymandius]

15. no 10am bounce

10:05
Dow 10,634.06 -51.83 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,151.59 -22.96 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,231.82 -5.99 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 43.05 -0.29 (-0.67%)
NYSE Volume 233,675,000
Nasdaq Volume 242,359,000

[ozymandius]

16. 10:20

Dow 10,621.24 -64.65 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,150.26 -24.29 (-1.12%)
S&P 500 1,231.21 -6.60 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 42.82 -0.52 (-1.20%)
NYSE Volume 304,364,000
Nasdaq Volume 305,953,000

[ozymandius]

19. 10:54 and ugliness continues

Dow 10,624.75 -61.14 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,152.28 -22.27 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,232.10 -5.71 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 42.81 -0.53 (-1.22%)
NYSE Volume 461,604,000
Nasdaq Volume 439,072,000

10:30AM: Equities remain on the defensive as virtually every sector relinquishes yesterday's gains... Pacing the way lower has been Technology, as a 7.9% drubbing in shares of Dell (DELL 36.47 -3.11) and weakness throughout Semiconductor offset a 3.4% surge in Nvidia (NVDA 29.21 +0.96), which beat Q2 estimates by $0.07... Consumer Discretionary has also been an influential leader to the downside, as investors lock in profits following yesterday's surprise real estate-related run-up in McDonald's (MCD 33.27 -1.42)...

Despite decent follow-through in bonds, which has knocked benchmark yields below 4.30%, the interest-rate sensitive Financial and Utilities sectors have also lost ground... Industrials has so far failed to benefit from a Banc of America upgrade on United Technologies (UTX 51.95 +0.32) while even Energy, which had opened to the upside amid record high oil prices, has been under pressure...DJTA -0.8, DJUA -0.4, DOT -0.8, Nasdaq 100 -0.8, Russell 2000 -1.1, SOX -1.5, S&P Midcap 400 -0.6, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 822/2070, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 659/1973

[ozymandius]

23. lunchtime check-in

12:31
Dow 10,577.22 -108.67 (-1.02%)
Nasdaq 2,146.54 -28.01 (-1.29%)
S&P 500 1,226.94 -10.87 (-0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 42.71 -0.63 (-1.45%)
NYSE Volume 827,520,000
Nasdaq Volume 756,450,000

12:00PM: Market trades at its worst levels of the session midday as a disappointment from bellwether Dell, a new all-time high in oil and discouraging economic data leave investors little incentive to hold onto recent market gains... Underpinning much of the early weakness that has left all ten economic sectors underwater has been Dell Inc. (DELL 36.49 -3.09)... Dell met analysts' Q2 earnings expectations but on revenues of $13.4 bln (consensus $13.7 bln) - the first considerable sales miss since in more than four years - which resulted in a downward revision to Q3 revenue guidance...

Adding insult to injury, the June trade deficit widened to $58.8 bln (consensus $57.2 bln) from $55.3 bln in May, as a 2.1% rise in imports (i.e. oil) to an all-time high of $165.7 bln has raised concerns that a previously reported read on Q2 GDP of 3.4% could be revised lower... Another imperfection to the recent string of upbeat economic data has been a decline in August consumer sentiment, which unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months to 92.7 (consensus 96.5) from this year's best levels (July's read of 96.5), due in large part to high fuel prices...

Speaking of oil, a fifth consecutive record high in crude oil futures ($66.90/bbl +$1.10), amid ongoing refining capacity concerns, has renewed fears of crimped profit margins as earnings season comes to a close... With regard to sector strength and weakness, Technology has led the charge lower following Dell's tepid sales outlook as well as broad-based consolidation in Semiconductor and Software...

[JNelson6563]

26. Price of oil ruining all else

No longer does the business community seem to be giddy over the oil companies' raping of us all. Seems some have gotten a clue that they will all be screwed in the end. Idiots.

Here's a snapshot and it's ugly (12:35):

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,581.37 -104.52 (-0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,146.77 -27.78 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,227.72 -10.09 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% -0.06


Looks like plenty of dough flowing into Treasuries.

Julie

[ozymandius]

27. giving it all back, with interest

Blather tells all...

1:03
Dow 10,578.49 -107.40 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,146.81 -27.74 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,226.98 -10.83 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 42.70 -0.64 (-1.48%)
NYSE Volume 930,660,000
Nasdaq Volume 842,880,000

12:30PM: Market continues to deteriorate as selling remains widespread across most areas... Unlike yesterday, when Energy benefited from a 1.4% surge in oil prices, the absence of leadership from a sector that continues to provide the largest contribution behind the overall growth of the S&P 500 has merely exacerbated the willingness to lock in recent gains, especially in Energy, ahead of the weekend... The Energy sector has soared 32% in 2005 while oil prices (following a 2004 gain of more than 33%) have surged another 38% since closing at $43.45/bbl on Dec. 30, 2004...NYSE Adv/Dec 885/2228, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 734/2151

[PATRICK]

29. A question on behalf of thrift savings etc.

The variegated risk programs now offered to let the plans diversify into stocks FOR you bothers me more than a little, as logical as it seems for the responsible plan directors. How can the real value of stock, over time, be as good as the past with the future shortages of life necessities and grasping mismanagement locked in stone now?

If the market is overinflated or in a bubble and one does NOT have confidence that someone will fill that vacuum enough or in time or restore a collapse, why should one go ahead and invest in the very instruments of rape and destruction? "The wise murderer invests in rope production, knowing that someday there will be a real demand for it." The unions trapped in the logic of influencing the market from within are the peak of people power and self-defeating logic once things are in the domineering control of people far worse than the already questionable capital doctrine that runs the planet's (human)economy. I wrote to my TSP something to that effect. It is called lack of consumer confidence, a pale definition considering.

So should plan members try to play the system and keep their pensions at least in the race and solvent? Or entrench in lonely safe havens that if emulated might cause entropic dissolution but with a better conscience? "What profits a man to gain the whole world" has been scaled back to "give your soul to calm your retirement fears". Plus that the weighted risk to the younger generation especially looks like yet another money raid on the young to sustain the sins of the old. Apparently the plans are already shaken by what is happening to the decisions and indecision among its slow to react members managing portions of their own accounts. This is a mirror already of what must happen under the SS "reform" when the people who will end up taking your decisions are not as well motivated to your best interests.

[JNelson6563]

35. My view these days

I don't want others managing my money and I am in an ultra-conservative mode as far as investing is concerned.

I agree that the system is being played to serve as temp fixes for stuff and there will be a very steep price for that in the future.

Julie

[ozymandius]

39. Listen to Julie. Social Security privatization is a temp fix.

There is nothing good that could come of that for a small investor. This is an attempt to circumvent the shareholder accountability component in corporate malfeasance. No one besides you can tell what investments are good for you. The important thing is to do your homework on the investment options.

[PATRICK]

44. The problem is

that few, very few hardworking people do. And when they get burned catch up or flight is not so hot a response either. To some degree people have to learn to avoid delegating trust upward. It can't always be trusworthy and workable like the sun coming up in the morning. Most of our public trusts have been betrayed or hollowed out under this generation's watch, because no one watches. Specialization and delegation in a complex world for the overworked and misinformed means that a majority is in peril. If the majority, then me too to some inevitable degree however I go smartly survivalist.

My best investment and for the future appears somewhat political not monetary.

[Martti]

28. Ahem,

First, thank you all for this daily "routine", I have been silently following it for months now.

Could someone please explain to me why "refining capasity conserns" raise the price of crude? One might think that : less refining capasity = less demand = lower price? What am I not seeing here?

Martti, Finland

[Roland99]

30. I was thinking the exact same thing.

What good is buying more crude if it can't be refined. Wouldn't that drive the price *down* in order to sell the crude if no one's buying?

[ozymandius]

34. Here's one angle.

The refinery is not the only destination for recently acquired crude oil. Much of the oil is going into storage tanks offsite of the refineries for future processing.

Oddly (and this bit of information has bolstered claims that the U.S. military is not done waging war in the Gulf) - the U.S. government is one of the biggest buyers of crude. The Bush administration has worked continuously to maintain the strategic petroleum reserve at full capacity. Notice that Bush has not wanted to tap this resource to lower gas prices at all.

Not that releasing oil to the refineries would do any long term good. We might get four days of lower prices with a littleglut on the market.

[Roland99]

41. I agree tapping the strategic reserves isn't necessary

But, I wonder where they're putting the rest of the oil if the reserves are topped off?

[AnneD]

45. Oil for the reserves

are housed in giant salt dome formations....Believe me, we have plenty of domes here in Tx. to take alot of imported oil. It could be years before they are topped off. Just an FYI.

[Roland99]

48. Thanks for the info.

[hatrack]

42. Also, the bulk of the excess oil from Saudi Arabia and OPEC . . . .

. . . such as it is, is sour crude - that is, oil with high sulfur content. Traders and refiners don't like sour crude. It takes extra time and energy and money to refine and clean it up for conversion into gasoline, kerosene and so forth.

The bulk of oil from Venezuela - the key American foreign supplier - is heavy crude - thicker, denser oil that also takes more time and energy to refine. America has very few refinieries that can handle heavy crude.

So, although production may increase slightly in the next few months, most of the extra oil is going to be grades of oil that people in the markets don't want to buy. Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Arab Light - these grades will continue to command premium prices, and demand for them will (at least IMHO) continue to push prices higher.

We have apparently inexhaustible demand butting up against very real constraints in refining capacity and production of key oil types. Ergo, no price declines, at least for now.

[AnneD]

46. And how about the oil they want to get from Alaska.....

If memory serves me right, that is the hardest to crack. They want to drill into a pristine wilderness for oil that will be so difficult to process.

[54anickel]

43. Week-end flight to quality in the 11:30 blather

11:30AM : Bearish bias persists in early trading, as stocks continue to chalk up widespread losses... Bonds, however, have again been a bright spot for investors as a weekend flight-to-quality bid has positioned the Treasury market to close higher for the first time in about seven weeks... The benchmark 10-year note is up 8 ticks to yield 4.27%... While bond traders basically shrugged off the widening deficit, a disappointing read on consumer sentiment and concerns that oil prices at record highs will temper economic growth have provided the impetus behind the relief rally in Treasurys... NYSE Adv/Dec 1045/1966, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 792/1993

Down has become pretty typical for Friday's lately. :eyes:

[54anickel]

31. Daily dollar watch (better late than never)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.01 Change -0.09 (-0.10%)

Settle 87.10 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.98 Previous Close 87.10

High 87.33 Low 86.76



http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp
Market Awaits Trade Data, Dollar Weakens by Ezechiel Copic


The US dollar is once again lower across the board this morning as the hits just keep on coming with Europe and Japan showing an improvement in fundamentals, diminishing foreign interest in US Treasury auctions, surging commodity prices (as witnessed by yet another new record this week in the price of crude oil above $66/barrel), and speculation that an appreciation of the yuan is inevitable. Unfortunately for dollar bulls, the biggest slugger – the US trade deficit – is up to bat this morning.

The amount of goods and services the US imported in June is, once again, expected to exceed the amount it exported – this time by as much as $58-59 billion. Although May’s trade deficit came in lower than expected at $55.3 billion, there is a better chance that the June figure could surprise on the upside due to the increasing price of crude oil, which averaged $56.70/barrel in June from May’s average of $50.52.

Increasing oil prices also translate into higher prices for gasoline, which now average $2.397 a gallon in the US – the highest ever. These record prices threaten to take their toll on consumer confidence. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index is expected to show, this morning, that confidence among US consumers dropped to 96.0 in August from 96.5 in July, which was the highest level all year. As we discussed in an earlier article (“Consumer Confidence Leads the Way” – 8/2/05), the state of the US consumer has a profound effect on the US economy and thus, by extension, the behavior of the Federal Reserve. A prolonged spell of declining consumer confidence could signal an end to the Fed’s current policy of tightening monetary policy.

snip>

Much anticipated trade data could see euro top $1.25

The euro is currently testing upward resistance at $1.2465, which corresponds to its 100 day MA. Further resistance occurs at 1.2495 – the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.3123 to 1.1862. If the US trade deficit comes in higher than the expected value of $58-59 billion, there is the potential for EURUSD to reach the 1.2530-35 territory. Support for the pair starts at 1.2430 and 1.24.



http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp
Oil Pushes Deficit to 3rd Highest Figure

The US trade deficit rose 6% in June to $58.82 billion from a revised $55.43 billion (initial $55.35 billion) in April. Imports increased 2.1% to $165.7 bln, while exports barely rose --0.05%-- to $106.8 billion.

We noted yesterday that: “... tomorrow’s report on the US trade deficit expected to have widened to $58.5-$59.0 billion in June from May’s $55.3 billion. An accumulated 15% rise in oil prices in May and June as well as soaring oil imports--as reported by the US Department of Energy yesterday—could be the main culprits to the deterioration of the imbalance.” Indeed, US imports of petroleum imports rose 9.8% to $19.9 billion, posting the highest percentage increase since December. As a percentage of total US imports, petroleum imports stood 11%, twice as much as it was in Jan-Mar 2002—the months prior to the dollar’s 3-year bear market.


The chart below shows a broad deterioration in the US deficit; China (+12.1% to $14.1 bln), Canada (+14.2% to $6.8 bln), Japan (+6% to $6.2 bln), Eurozone (+1% to $7.5 bln) and OPEC (+7% to $6.1 bln).



With the trade gap having worsened by 3% and 6% in May and June respectively totaling $171.1 billion, we could see a downward revision in the prelim Q2 GDP figure of about 0.5% later this month year, especially now that June inventories came out flat. There is also the issue of personal consumption expenditure, which slowed to 3.3% in Q2 from 3.5%, 4.3% and 4.4% in Q1 05, Q4 04 and Q3 04 respectively.



more...

[54anickel]

32. U.S. Consumers Lose Confidence in Aug. on Fuel Prices (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aceBGSfAYmW8&refer=us

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell in August from the highest level of the year as Americans confronted record prices at the gasoline pump.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index declined to 92.7 from July's 96.5, the first drop in three months and the lowest since May's 86.9. The reading was below the lowest estimate of 93.5 in a Bloomberg News survey of 50 economists.

Average gasoline prices reached an unprecedented $2.41 a gallon this month, threatening to siphon spending from other goods and services. While an improved job market and income gains have helped Americans cope with the higher prices, economists said the higher fuel prices may be starting to take a toll.

``The economy is fundamentally quite strong, but there is no question that surging energy prices have the capacity to push spending off track temporarily,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a Valhalla, New York, forecasting firm.

snip>

Economists expect gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, to grow faster this quarter even amid the higher fuel costs. Growth will probably increase to 4.1 percent at an annual rate from 3.4 percent in the prior three months, according to the median forecast in a monthly Bloomberg economist survey released Aug. 9. That's up from a forecast of 3.5 percent in July's survey. :eyes:

[54anickel]

33. U.S. June Trade Gap Swells to $58.8 Billion on Record Imports (SPIN)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aX7azWwt6rEE&refer=home

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in June to $58.8 billion, as a strengthening economy prompted companies to import more expensive crude oil and a record amount of goods from China. :rofl:

snip>

Crude oil prices increased 13 percent on average in June, and retail sales rose as consumers bought more foreign-made apparel and appliances. Companies also imported more equipment to replenish inventories. Record energy costs this month and an accelerating economy suggest little prospect for improvement in the trade gap for the rest of the year, economists said.

The rise in imports ``reflects in part the strength of the U.S. economy,'' said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``With oil prices where they are and growth appearing to have strengthened in the third quarter, I would expect the trade deficit to widen as we go forward.''

snip>

The economy grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said July 29. A narrowing of the trade deficit compared with the first quarter added 1.6 percentage points to GDP, the most since the fourth quarter of 1996. The June figure may prompt the government to revise how fast the economy grew in the second quarter.

The bigger June deficit ``probably means that trade added less to second-quarter growth'' than the government estimated earlier, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, before the report.

more...

[54anickel]

36. Bond Futures Industry Debates Steps to Protect It From 'Fails'

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wrap12.1aug12,1,3503170.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Key players in the bond futures industry are at odds over what steps, if any, should be taken to avoid a repeat of a situation in June that saw a large imbalance in supply and demand for a particular Treasury security used to settle futures trades.

The Chicago Board of Trade, a major trading venue for Treasury bond futures, said Thursday that limits it imposed on bond futures holdings in the wake of the June market disturbance were a "prudent and proactive" response to concerns that the problem could arise again.

But the Futures Industry Assn. is urging the exchange to rescind the limits for investors who use the futures contracts to hedge, or guard against losses in, their bond portfolios.

"There has been no indication that Treasury bond or note deliveries have either caused or exacerbated any market dislocations," the association said in a recent letter to the Board of Trade.

The trouble in June revolved around scant supplies of the 10-year Treasury note that was cheapest to deliver against expiring bond futures. That set off a scramble to get the bond. Some traders' inability to find securities — or unwillingness to pay the prices sellers were demanding — triggered "fails," costing the traders hundreds of millions of dollars in penalty costs, by some analysts' estimates.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Hedge funds see oil price surge inevitable

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-08-12T092513Z_01_L12623453_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-FINANCIAL-FUND-HEDGE-CRUDE-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - In chasing oil prices higher hedge funds are only hastening the inevitable because they anticipate a global shortage within years, a London-based fund manager said on Friday.

Hedge funds, lightly regulated and normally able to deploy a wider range of investment tools than traditional fund managers, are often accused of pushing prices up or down beyond levels justified by underlying economics.

But Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London & Capital, expects demand for crude oil to rise by 2 to 3 million barrels per day each year if global economic growth continues at around 4 percent a year.

"Excess capacity at the moment is only 2 million barrels a day," he said. "Hedge funds are only accelerating a process that is unavoidable ... They are basically the new vigilantes in financial and commodity markets."

more...

[54anickel]

38. A Real Morale Booster on Jobs?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock081205.html

snip>

Seriously, mergers, outsourcing, and other consolidations are costing the United States hundreds of thousands of jobs. Massive amounts of announced layoffs in the banking and telecom industries will start kicking in the second half of the year. Eventually, this will spill over and affect housing just as it has in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Some consumer discretionary spending is already taking a huge hit. It will be affecting even more jobs as we go forward.

snip>

We have already seen consumer spending and home sales drop like a rock in both the United Kingdom and Australia. One argument currently floating around in the United States is that we aren't making any more land. The last time I checked, they were not making land in London anymore either. Japan has not made any land recently, but that did not stop prices from falling for 18 consecutive years.

The United Kingdom has just about finished year one of a housing bust, and Australia is well into year two. Already, U.K. retailers are clamoring for lower interest rates to prop up consumer spending. The first of probably many rates cuts in the United Kingdom is likely in August. I doubt it will do any good. Consumers are just plain tapped out, and job losses are mounting.

The U.K. "Consumer Spending Express Train" has left the station. It is now heading south. It may be years before it heads back north.

more...

[ozymandius]

40. range bound in the triple negative digits

1:53
Dow 10,578.16 -107.73 (-1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,148.01 -26.54 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,227.21 -10.60 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 42.70 -0.64 (-1.48%)
NYSE Volume 1,067,887,000
Nasdaq Volume 967,923,000

1:30PM: Range-bound trading persists in stocks, as the market continues to trade sideways near session lows... However, while every economic sector remains under pressure, there are a few S&P groups trading higher... Home Furnishings (+1.7%) continues to enjoy the day's best performance in a down market, catching a bid after Leggett & Platt (LEG 25.48 +0.43) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust, while the Wireless Services Index (+1.4%) has climbed on news that Sprint (FON) has closed its $1.3 bln cash tender offer for US Unwired...

Electronic Equipment Manufacturing (i.e. A, SBL) and Department Stores (i.e. FD, MAY) have also surged more than 1.0%...NYSE Adv/Dec 851/2321, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 727/2190

[nolabels]

47. That 10,500 mark works for me

Is reality starting to set back in again :shrug:

A score card to find out who is winning kinda, that dead heat race is coming on strong again :woohoo:

Btw since we all know the rich are getting richer, where are they all hiding their money now?

[54anickel]

51. Stock investors pour billions into Asia in bet that yuan will rise

From yesterday's thread (Title has changed)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/11/business/flow.php

International investors have been betting big that Asia's economies will get a lift from China's move last month to revalue its currency, the yuan, perplexing those analysts and economists who had argued that China's move would not have much effect.

In the past month, foreign investors have poured almost $6 billion into Asia's stock markets, with $1.2 billion entering last week, according to Nomura International, which tracks foreign trading data from Taiwan, South Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. That does not include the deluge of funds analysts say is flowing into Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, which do not disclose data on foreign trading.

According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, equity funds dedicated to Asia outside Japan received $370 million in new investments the week following China's revaluation and another $471 million the week after that.

That money is being spread far and wide. Last week, foreign fund mangers bought $519 million worth of stock in China's next-door neighbor, Taiwan, according to Nomura. They bought $244 million worth of stock farther away in Indonesia, a market roughly one-sixth the size of Taiwan's.

more...

[Roland99]

52. FYI...Jan. 19, 2001 closing values (last day before *'s inauguration)

DJIA: 10,587.59
NASDAQ: 2,770.38
S&P 500: 1,342.54



YESTERDAY
DJIA: 10,578.24
NASDAQ: 2,757.91
S&P 500: 1,342.90



NET
DJIA: -9.35
NASDAQ: -12.47
S&P 500: +0.36




Wow! What a legacy!

[54anickel]

49. 3:13 and creeping up a bit (Zowie - look at bonds!)

Dow 10,596.58 -89.31 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,150.51 -24.04 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 1,229.18 -8.63 (-0.70%)
10-yr Bond 42.39 -0.95 (-2.19%)
30-yr Bond 44.47 -0.80 (-1.77%)
NYSE Volume 1,315,682,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,206,146,000

3:00PM: Stocks, while still under pressure across the board, continue to trade at modestly improved levels, as benchmark yields close at low rates not seen since July... The 10-year note, up all day amid safe-haven-weekend buying, has recently finished up 18 ticks to yield 4.23%, perhaps providing some relief with regard to borrowing costs for both consumers and corporations...
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that limited participation, amid a typically light volume summer Friday (as the NYSE has yet to see1.0 bln shares exchange hands), has provided little conviction behind today's broad-based weakness in equities... NYSE Adv/Dec 1008/2197, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/2132

2:30PM: Market backs off session lows but hardly enough to make a significant change in the standings... Even with crude oil futures trading near their highest levels ever, investors may be finding some solace from the fact that the commodities market is now closed... However, the damage has been done, as oil unofficially closing at $66.80/bbl (+$1.00) - its largest weekly gain (nearly 7%) in two months - has helped erase all of yesterday's market gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 930/2273, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 781/2176

[ozymandius]

50. 3:18 numbers and blather

Dow 10,596.72 -89.17 (-0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,151.16 -23.39 (-1.08%)
S&P 500 1,229.49 -8.32 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 42.38 -0.96 (-2.22%)
NYSE Volume 1,333,741,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,223,242,000

3:00PM: Stocks, while still under pressure across the board, continue to trade at modestly improved levels, as benchmark yields close at low rates not seen since July... The 10-year note, up all day amid safe-haven-weekend buying, has recently finished up 18 ticks to yield 4.23%, perhaps providing some relief with regard to borrowing costs for both consumers and corporations...

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that limited participation, amid a typically light volume summer Friday (as the NYSE has yet to see1.0 bln shares exchange hands), has provided little conviction behind today's broad-based weakness in equities... NYSE Adv/Dec 1008/2197, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/2132

[54anickel]

53. What oils the wheels of GCC-Indian cooperation?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=17579

The foundation of relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and India is very strong given their historic links, the presence of about four million Indians in the region, leading to about $5 billion in annual remittances, and the potential for a trade bill of more than $15 billion in 2005. Though both sides are beginning to see eye-to-eye politically as well, trade will remain the bedrock of bilateral ties.

As part of a new "look East" policy, the GCC chambers of commerce and industry have called for prioritizing economic cooperation with Asian countries. Reciprocally, India and others have unveiled a multifaceted economic dialogue, including "energy diplomacy" to power economic growth. Already ranking sixth in global petroleum demand, India meets 70 percent of its needs through crude oil imports. By 2010, India is projected to replace South Korea and emerge as the fourth-largest consumer of energy, after the United States, China and Japan. The bulk of supplies in the past have come from the Gulf and this can change only marginally.

New Delhi was jolted into action after the hike in global oil prices fueled inflation to three-and-a-half-year highs at the end of 2004. The oil import bill rose 58 percent to $14 billion during the first six months of the current financial year ending March 2005.

While it is unclear if the robust policies are a product of India's proactive Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar or a strategic change in the outlook of the government, there is no denying India's newfound desire to address its energy security needs. This includes plans to build strategic oil reserves of 5 million tons by 2008 to cover 15 days' domestic demand for oil products. To achieve its mission, New Delhi is searching for new reserves, augmenting supplies from its traditional suppliers, and sealing acquisition deals abroad.

Of its 90 million crude oil requirements, about 26 percent, or 24 million tons, is being met by Saudi Arabia, at an estimated rate of about 430,000 barrels per day, which translated into $4.7 billion in 2003. This made India the fourth-largest consumer of Saudi oil in Asia and will, according to Mani Shankar Aiyar, soon be doubled.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Oil bonanza offers new opportunity for wealth distribution

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1731754,00.html

THE good news is that the Gulf states are keeping far more of the oil bonanza at home than they have done before — and investing some of it in new businesses, schools and universities.

snip>

For the six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman — it forecasts economic growth of nearly 25 per cent this year. Most of that is due to record oil prices, which have trebled since 1999. Howard Handy, IIF director for the Middle East and Africa, said he expects that those countries’ revenue from exporting oil will rise by 49 per cent this year to $291 billion.

Of course, there have been booms before. Much past wealth was soaked up by palaces, Bentleys and trappings coveted by those in power. A lot went into US stock markets.

The spectacle spawned a vigorous academic debate on whether wealth in resources always fosters corruption.

But the IIF report is one of several saying, cautiously, that this time, the use of the windfall looks promising. Charles Dallera, IIF managing director, notes that this boom “appears to be having more dynamic effects across the region”.

This time, much more of the cash is staying at home, encouraged by tighter financial controls in the US and Europe since September 11. According to the Basle-based Bank for International Settlements, “oil revenues have not been channelled into the international banking system” — overseas bank deposits of the main oil countries have barely risen.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Gulf nations to embark on a major foreign asset spree in 2005-6

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=103165

(MENAFN) Gulf oil-producing countries will embark on a massive accumulation of foreign assets this year and the next as they cash in on record oil prices and soaring worldwide petroleum demand, Financial Times reported.

The region will buy about $360 billion of foreign assets, from bonds to real estate, in 2005 and 2006, 50 percent more than its total purchases of the past five years, according to the Institute for International Finance (IIF).

It estimates accretions of foreign assets this year and next by the governments and private investors of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar will outpace China's accumulation of foreign exchange reserves over the past two years.

snip>

Arab Gulf oil countries will earn about $290 billion this year from sales of oil, three times the average income of the 1990s. Next year revenues are forecast to hit $300 billion.

more...

There's that $360 Billion again. Which is it, foreign or domestic investing? From Tuesday's thread:

Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Aug. 7 (UPI) -- Saudi Arabia said Sunday it was working to bring back to the kingdom a total of $360 billion invested abroad in the last 18 months.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters the government was working on returning these "national assets" back to the oil-rich Arab country and to attract foreign investments in Saudi Arabia.

He said the kingdom has "established qualified institutions for that purpose," but did not elaborate.

more...

[loudsue]

58. The new Iranian Oil Bourse?

"RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Aug. 7 (UPI) -- Saudi Arabia said Sunday it was working to bring back to the kingdom a total of $360 billion invested abroad in the last 18 months.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters the government was working on returning these "national assets" back to the oil-rich Arab country and to attract foreign investments in Saudi Arabia.

He said the kingdom has "established qualified institutions for that purpose," but did not elaborate."

I wonder if they're repositioning themselves for when the dollar tanks after 2006, when the bourse opens. That's only 8 months away.

Of course, bush/cheney plan on nuking Iran before the bourse opens, but my guess is, the Iranians and Saudis have taken that into account. Saudis have pretty good "inside intelligence" here in the UCSofA (United Corporate States of America).



:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

59. Not sure, but sumptin's up. This may relate to the new Saudi King,

Abdullah who wants to push reform.

Bemildred re-posted this older article last week. It's an interesting read when taken in with what's going on in the GCC and ME in general.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200305/baer

The Fall of the House of Saud

[ozymandius]

55. moving toward the close

3:44
Dow 10,622.12 -63.77 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,157.44 -17.11 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,232.81 -5.00 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 42.38 -0.96 (-2.22%)
NYSE Volume 1,484,845,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,366,951,000

3:30PM: Renewed buying interest lifts the market to its best levels of the afternoon, but the recent momentum shift appears somewhat exaggerated, as volume continues to taper off into the close and investors look beyond the day's drubbing in preparation for next week...
Even though the majority of the S&P 500 has reported earnings, reports from the last three Dow components to post quarterly results (i.e. HPQ, HD and WMT) should garner some attention while investors will also digest the latest reads on inflation (i.e. CPI and PPI), industrial production and regional manufacturing activity (i.e. Philly Fed)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1052/2181, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 891/2104

[54anickel]

57. PIEHOLE: Bush hints at military option for Iran

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16245680%255E1702,00.html

US President George W Bush refused to rule out the use of force against Iran over the Islamic republic's resumption of nuclear activities, in an interview with Israeli television.

When asked if the use of force was an alternative to faltering diplomatic efforts, Bush said: "All options are on the table."

"The use of force is the last option for any president. You know we have used force in the recent past to secure our country," he said in a clear reference to Iraq.

"I have been willing to do so as a last resort in order to secure the country and provide the opportunity for people to live in free societies," he added.

more...

[ozymandius]

60. Ford fires salaried employees (YIKES!)

Ford Motor Co., for the first time in generations, has resorted to firing employees and immediately escorting them from corporate buildings -- roiling the company and compelling Chief Executive Officer Bill Ford to send a message this week to reassure the so-called Ford Family.

Until now, Detroit automakers have cut thousands of white-collar jobs almost exclusively by getting employees to voluntarily quit through early retirement, buyouts or letting open positions go unfilled.

But not nearly enough people have come off Ford's payroll to meet its initial goal of cutting 2,750 of its 35,000 North American white-collar workers.

Even worse for workers, the company reported a $907-million loss in the April-June period this year for its North American division, and says now that cuts may have to go even deeper than 2,750 positions.

more...

http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/ford12e_20050812.htm

[54anickel]

62. Wow, sounds like it wasn't from the sales staff they originally announced

yet either. Sounds like Ford's hurting a lot more than they were willing to let on to. Very sad news for workers. Cuts going higher and higher up the food chain. What was that BS Snow was spewing about how the un-educated were being left behind?

[54anickel]

64. Will the laid off workers hunt O-Liely down like the mangey dog he is?

O'Reilly Econ 101: Those who "fail in this country" are "stupid," "addicted," or have "mental problems"


http://mediamatters.org/items/200508120002

Calling Sen. Edward Kennedy's (D-MA) recent criticism of Bush economic policy "victimology" and the "class warfare game," Fox News host Bill O'Reilly offered his own explanation for unemployment and lack of economic success: "n order to fail in this country, you've gotta be one troubled individual." He also said that those who are a part of this "permanent underclass that does not succeed" are "stupid," "addicted," or have "mental problems." "All these things," O'Reilly said, "encompass all of our underclass."

O'Reilly repeated the theory in his August 11 nationally syndicated column, claiming that "less-educated" Americans, plus those who suffer from "addiction, mental incapacities and other serious maladies," equal "a full explanation as to why some Americans fail in the marketplace." "hese are not "average" Americans who are earning six bucks an hour," wrote O'Reilly. "These are adults who most likely sleepwalked through their school years."

From the August 10 broadcast of Westwood One's The Radio Factor with Bill O'Reilly:

more...

[ozymandius]

61. closing numbers with blather

Dow 10,600.31 -85.58 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,156.90 -17.65 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,230.39 -7.42 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 42.38 -0.96 (-2.22%)
NYSE Volume 1,697,634,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,551,436,000

Close: As if a disappointment from tech giant Dell was not enough, oil hitting another record high and dispiriting economic reports was all investors needed to lock in yesterday's market gains and close up shop for the weekend with the vast majority of stocks showing losses... Even as investors continue to shift their focus away from corporate profits - as more than 90% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings - and more on concerns about rising oil prices and economic data, discouraging news out of Dell Inc.'s (DELL 36.64 -2.94) weighed heavily on the market...

Before the opening bell, underlying sentiment was already negative, after Dell matched analysts' Q2 earnings forecasts but posted its first considerable sales miss ($13.4 bln versus expectations of $13.7 bln) since its Jan. 2001 quarter, which resulted in a downward revision to Q3 revenue guidance... Fanning the flames, investors also digested some rather disheartening economic data...

The June trade deficit widened to $58.8 bln (consensus $57.2 bln) from $55.3 bln in May, as a 2.1% rise in imports (i.e. oil) to an all-time high of $165.7 bln raised worries that a previously reported read on Q2 GDP of 3.4% could be revised lower... And then, just after the market opened, August consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months to 92.7 (consensus 96.5) from this year's best levels (July's read of 96.5), due in large part to high fuel prices... To that end, crude oil futures, which briefly surpassed $67/bbl, closed at fifth consecutive record high of $66.86/bbl (+$1.06), posting its largest weekly gain (+6.8%) in two months...

[hatrack]

63. Where did oil prices end up?

I know they bounced off $67 earlier but haven't seen much since.

[ozymandius]

66. Oil prices hit record near $67

AUG. 12 3:38 P.M. ET Oil prices settled at a record high near $67 Friday, as U.S. refinery outages looked set to test gasoline supplies in the world's biggest-consuming nation.

The threat of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and concerns over Iran's decision to resume uranium-conversion activities also fueled the price increase, analysts said.

But some traders said purely speculative buying was a big factor behind the $10 per barrel surge in just over three weeks.

more...

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8BUFLN80.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

[54anickel]

67. $66.86 - Up $1.06

[54anickel]

68. Heh-heh, but hey the DOW and S&P are up for the week!!!

While down on the day, the Dow and S&P finished the week to the upside while huge sell-offs (8.0% declines) from two of the Nasdaq's most influential components - DELL and CSCO - closed the tech-heavy Composite lower for the second straight week...DJTA -0.4, DJUA -0.3, DOT -0.5, Nasdaq 100 -0.6, Russell 2000 -1.0, SOX -1.3, S&P Midcap 400 -0.2, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1202/2040, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1097/1939


What an ending for the week that Shrub has his little economic pop-wow down at the pig farm. They've been shouting "strong, growing economy" all damned week. Sheesh, look at the damned reports and numbers coming in. Yet economists are still revising Q3 GDP up? What a bunch of propeller head "morans". Still can't see the damned elephant in the room.

http://www.galleryone.com/images/kate2/bullas%20-%20element%20of%20surprise,%20the.jpg

[54anickel]

65. Oil: The US' Achilles' Heel

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/aug122005.html

snip>

The US consumes about 9 million barrels of motor vehicle gasoline per day. That equates to roughly 140 billion gallons a year. Gasoline prices have increased from $1.50 per gallon to over $2.30 per gallon in less than two years, and prices are still rising. That eighty cent increase in gasoline prices means that the US will spend over $100 billion more on gasoline this year than two years ago, and that works out to an average of about $1,000 per household. Some households can afford to spend an extra $1,000 a year on gasoline, but some cannot.

The bottom line is that rising gasoline prices will ultimately reduce consumer spending and the US economy is so dependent on consumer spending that the rising oil price might just turn out to be its Achilles’ Heel. 70% of US economic activity is personal consumption expenditures.

The dollar fell this week and the gold price (not surprisingly) increased. Part of the reason for the fall in the dollar was better-than-expected economic numbers from Europe and an increase in capital flows to Japan. But part of the reason was weak US retail sales figures for last month. Excluding the auto industry that, as I described two weeks ago, is practically giving cars away, US retail sales were very soft indeed. Excluding autos, all other retail sales rose on average a mere 0.3% last month and that included a 2.4% increase in gasoline sales due to higher gasoline prices. Could the increase in gasoline prices already be taking its toll? Sales at furniture stores fell 1.3% and sales at building material retailers fell 0.4% despite the fact that we are still in the midst of a roaring real estate bubble.

Here are some interesting statistics I got from the US Census Bureau (latest figures are for 2003).

more...