UK Heads for Heatwaves

[sintax]

Siestas forecast as UK heads for heatwaves

John Vidal, environment editor
Saturday August 13, 2005
The Guardian

Britain can expect heatwaves similar to the one which killed up to 40,000 people across Europe in August 2003 every other year, say scientists.

The 10-day European heatwave, which saw the highest temperatures the continent has experienced since 1500, killed 2,093 people in Britain even though it was less affected than other parts of Europe. Research by Peter Stott of the Hadley centre for climate prediction, and Nikolaos Christidis of Oxford University, suggests there is a mounting risk of similar extreme events within decades.

Mr Stott's research suggests that very hot summer days are likely to become more extreme in the UK, with peak temperatures rising from about 35C to 42C (95 to 108F) by the middle of the century. It also shows there has been a mean average increase of about 1C for the warmest nights between 1950 and 2000. The bonus is that deaths from the cold are now practically unknown. "In the 1980s it was common to have 150,000 cold-related deaths in a winter. Now the deaths are down to about 20,000 a year."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/Story/0,2763,1548240,00.html

[mtnester]

1. Shoot, you want heat wave and no rain you all can come to central Ohio

100 degrees at our house today, been HOT since Memorial day, with only 3/4 inch of rain in the rain gage since June 1. Our air quality index is miserable, and everyone is looking limp and tired.

Corn is in bad (REAL bad) shape, and soybeans? They are not setting flower. Farmers in this area will suffer hard this season, tomatoes are small and WON'T turn red, it is horrid.

[sintax]

2. Same here

in Northeast.

Worst Midwest drought in years is wilting crops

By Scott Kilman
The Wall Street Journal
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/12307...


"We're getting to the point where the plants don't have much flowers left. It's not good news." – Agronomist Bill Wiebold

The worst drought across the east-central United States since 1988 is shrinking potential harvests of corn and soybeans, and slowing commercial shipping on some rivers.

The dry spell, now in its fifth month, is blistering productive farmland and draining tributaries that feed the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. Those are crucial pathways for hauling commodities such as salt, petroleum products and cement-making materials to Midwest cities.

Several barge operators are reducing their loads to keep vessels from scraping the bottom. The move is threatening to slow the delivery of building materials to some construction projects in Chicago and could snarl the movement this fall of newly harvested crops.

If river levels don't rise soon, the U.S. grain industry "will have significant delays," said Royce Wilken, president of American River Transportation Co., the barge unit of Archer Daniels Midland Co.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1697564&mesg_id=1697564

[ramapo]

10. NJ too

Ten days 90 or higher just since 8/1. 102 today. No rain. Not much different in July. Bushes are grasses are wilted or brown. Trees are dropping leaves. The air is filthy.

[Lisa]

3. uh oh. A lot of older British homes don't have air conditioning ...

Could make for some uncomfortable situations in the summer.

[hatrack]

4. Not to worry - when thousands die, the WP can mock them in an editorial

Just as they did the 30,000-odd in France, Switzerland, Italy and Germany who died in 2003. Why didn't they do the sensible thing, the Post mused, and get air conditioning, and fill their glasses to the brim with refreshing ice! :puke:

No, I am not making this up.

[Lisa]

5. Wow. I'd missed that editorial ...

Is it possible that they were being ultra-ironic, and got carried away? I really hope that's the case, or that paper looks not just callous, but stupid as well.

Particularly since Europe appears to have a significantly-lower per capita energy consumption than North America (and if heatwaves like this are indeed caused by global warming, they aren't the biggest contributors to the problem).

[NYC]

6. But they may be forced to become part of the problem by

installing air conditioners. Could happen.

[Lisa]

9. that's been predicted for over here, too

Increased energy use due to extreme temperatures was actually overlooked in the first set of climate change impact scenarios.

[barb162]

8. They typically have a much more moderate climate than we do

so they typically use less a/ca and heat. I was there once in January a few years ago and they were having a blizzard and really cold weather, at least according to them. Well, I thought it was a joke. About 6" of snow and it was in the 20s, like BFD. Over there, it was the headline story for days.

[MisterP]

7. Blair said not to do anything, just "adapt" and move inland

of course, incinerating "bad" Muslims will contribute, both in the Provinces of Mesopotamia and of Britannia Blairiensis

[Delphinus]

11. How in the world???

"In the 1980s it was common to have 150,000 cold-related deaths in a winter.

This is a civilized country! How can there be so many deaths?

[fedsron2us]

12. Britain sits at the confluence of four air masses.

For the vast majority of the year the climate is very temperate but it does occasionally find itself plunged into air streams from the Arctic. When that happens it can get quite cold quite quickly. Sadly, people here in the UK do not always adapt very quickly to these changes. In particular, unlike Scandinavians or Continental Europeans they do not always dress properly for the cold by wearing headgear, scarves etc. This means that mortality from strokes or heart attacks in winter is often higher in Britain than in a country such as Finland. Houses in the UK also tend to have less insulation against the cold than many of those in mainland Europe. Finally, Britain may not be the coldest spot in the world but being surrounded by the sea it is always quite damp. This does not help those with respiratory problems.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3349863.stm
http://www.metoffice.com/education/higher/air.html#introduction

On edit - I have to confess that I have my doubts whether the extreme heat predicted in this article is likely to be that common in the UK. In my 50 years in the UK the main climate change I have noticed has been the reduction in the amount of frost or snow in winter not the dramatic rise in temperature in summer. The fact that the country is surrounded by water means that the chances of the thermometer getting over 100 F on any one day is rare.

[T_i_B]

13. Not this summer.