Deadly 1918 Epidemic Linked to Bird Flu, Scientists Say

[RedEarth]

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why this virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new research indicates that the 1918 virus, unlike more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans. The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share a few of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all, of those changes.

In a joint statement, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "The new studies could have an immediate impact by helping scientist focus on detecting changes in the evolving H5N1 virus that might make widespread transmission among humans more likely."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/health/05cnd-flu.html?ei=5094&en=054b7bbcd1082219&hp=&ex=1128571200&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print

Below is a link to a very good resource site dealing with Avian Flu...

http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Main.HomePage

[Lerkfish]

1. more fog of war....now we will see a flurry of reports on how bad

this flu is....

and how we need the military to enforce quarantine.


the reports will come in from a variety of sources, but they will all be the same:

Rovian scare tactics to quell the masses into forced stupor of fear so that when the soldiers shoot their grandma, they'll run up and kiss the killer's hand in gratitude for keeping them safe.


we as SOOOO in nazi germany. Its time we wake up to it.

[1956]

23. Yes, and the reason it is so scary...

Is because part of Shrub's "summer reading" was a book about the 1918 flu!!!!! Whatever is up our fascist's sleeve has been planned and pondered on for awhile!! The implications are the most horrorific(sp?) thing I can think of!!!
HOW MUCH MORE DO WE HAVE TO TAKE!!!????? WHY CAN'T WE IMPEACH HIM!
HIM and the other asses of evil!!!????

[LizW]

27. Did you see CNN this morning?

They did a report on the 1918 flu epidemic. There was a person giving a gruesome report of how the people looked -- they were so blue from lack of oxygen that the doctors couldn't tell African Americans from caucasians. Often the patients bled from the eyes, nose and ears.

Immediately after that horrifying report, they cut back to Sodedad O'Brien, who said something like, "President Bush yesterday discussed the use of the military to enforce quarantines in the event of an outbreak of the deadly bird flu in the United States."

So, there you go. They're terrorizing us.

[raccoon]

56. Great post, good analysis. Thanks for passing that on.

As you said, they're terrorizing us. It's obvious.

[Javaman]

2. This is the new terror alerts....

The crappy bullshit color coded terror alerts of old is now replaced with FLU ALERT!!!! They make it sound like The Andromeda Strain.

folks, this is a non-airborn virus, meaning, you can only get it via touch or someone blows their nose on you.

Simple rules to follow during flu season.
1) don't put things in your mouth. ie: pencils, pens, paper, etc.

2) wash your hands

3) don't share cups or other utencils.

[notadmblnd]

11. and wouldn't someone have to be around chickens/birds first?

I realize that people will be pass it around via mucous (people sneezing and touching things without washing their hands) once the disease is out amongst us, but perhaps the best way to avoid this flu is avoiding birds and not coming in contact with chicken?

[raccoon]

57. " not coming in contact with chicken?"

You mean, avoiding Bush and his friends?

[Silverhair]

72. Asia is the incubation ground for H5N1.

They are in close contact with poulty there. Once it makes the mutation there to enable it to easily jump for human to human, than it will raced through humanity. Staying away from chickens in the USA will accomplish exactly - nothing.

[drfresh]

13. it could be airborne

I am not a pathologist, but I've been following the bird flu story for over a year now. My old doctor was very interested in pandemics for some time and through him I learned about the 1918 flu... NASTY thing, 50m dead in a year's time.

Resources that I have found suggest that H5N1 can be spread airborne:

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Flu/story?id=910389&page=1

Airborne Danger

Bird flu was believed to infect birds only until 1997 when the first human cases were seen in Hong Kong. Humans contract the disease through close contact with live infected birds. The virus is particularly dangerous because it's an airborne disease that acts swiftly. Birds that survive infection excrete the virus for at least 10 days, orally and through their feces.

The disease, which was first identified in Italy more than 100 years ago, occurs worldwide. There are 15 different strains of the virus, but the current strain deadly to humans is identified as H5N1.

Influenza mutates a lot, so if it can't spread easily in the air now it could mutate to become better at it. (Ahh-choo) ... and the really big worry is that if it mutates to become human-to-human transmissible, we have a problem as that nobody has immunity to H5N1 and that it kills about 75% of everyone it infects. Compare that to 2.5% for the 1918 Spanish Flu and 0.5 to 1% for "normal" influenza and you have a deadly scenario there.

When the WHO says the world is in the "gravest possible danger" I take it pretty seriously!

[Javaman]

21. Wow, if it's airborne, that's a whole other story...

Pick up "Flu" by Gina Kolata, if you haven't read it already. It's a good read. It tracks the 1918 flu through today and how influenza is dealt with.

[woodsprite]

3. I'm not buying it. It sounds a wee bit too "convenient" to me. n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. BS. You probably said three years ago that it was convenient that

You probably said three years ago that it was convenient that they were exhuming Alaskan Inuit out of permafrost to get at the viruses that are the foundation of this study.

Take your tinfoil hat off, and join the thoughtful people who are looking at the real issues, not conspiracy junk. The real issue in this case is that the federal Republicans want to invoke the military on the civilian population.

[Conservativesux]

69. All these years a NOW they decide it was a bird flu? Beachfront property

is still available in Arizona too.

Not buying it.

[SoCalDem]

4. Bush solution? We must kill all the birds

Fight 'em there, so we don't have to fight 'em here..

Granny..turn a loos of that parakeet..we gots ta kill 'im..

[Lexingtonian]

5. That's great and important research work, indeed

It should end up helping beat these viruses.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Wow, 1st four replies all "don't believe the scientists, it's pro-Bush "

Come on people, this is published in Nature and Science. Those are not controlled by Bush - they spend their time trying to get real science out, against the wishes of Bush and his petroleum buddies.

Take this seriously. A lot of lives might depend on that.

[Journeyman]

9. For months, DU's been abuzz with how deadly a bird flu pandemic could be..

and how its effect would be amplified by BushCo's incompetency. Now, BushCo has put forth a plan (flawed though it may be), the possible effects are made clear through this article, and everyone wants to go paranoid over how BushCo will use this to its own gain. There's no pleasing some DUers. In their case, paranoia is a comfort, and it doesn't matter which end of the argument fuels the fear.

[Bridget Burke]

20. Bush's "plan" is using the military for quarantine.

No research? No plan for how an already-stretched health care system could handle this?

Somehow, I don't trust Bush.

[Demeter]

22. Bush (Rove/Scooter) Would Capitalize on Anything--for Political Gain

His parents could be abducted by Martians and he would turn it into something promoting his crime syndicate. They could get head colds. They could lose a grandchild. Anything.

If they are out to get you, there's nothing wrong with being paranoid. And Bush is out to get us all.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. Just goes to show that the right has no monopoly on shallow thinkers

Folks: The threat posed by avian flu is real, though it may be distant in time and space for the US at this moment. To deny that is to stick your head in the sand. With luck it may not develop into a global pandemic. However luddite anti-science reactionary attitudes should be left to the Republicans because those attitudes will not find the true measure of the problem or solutions.

[fishnfla]

24. Todays NYTimes reports 32 Dems signed letter to Bush

after a briefing on the potential out break, requesting action. 2 of the signers that I recall were Reid and Obama.

DUers are being stupid with the tinfoil crap on this

[kestrel91316]

86. Sad to say, muriel, that even here on DU we have some devotees of

PSEUDOSCIENCE.

[0007]

7. junior has the military standing by.....

What is the risk to people in the United States from the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Asia?
The current risk to Americans from the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Asia is low. The strain of H5N1 virus found in Asia has not been found in the United States. There have been no human cases of H5N1 flu in the United States. It is possible that travelers returning from affected countries in Asia could be infected. Since February 2004, medical and public health personnel have been watching closely to find any such cases.

There currently is no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus that is being seen in Asia. However, vaccine development efforts are under way.

[kestrel91316]

33. Ever consider how airline travel can get somebody to the other

side of the world in several hours??? THAT is why Asia's bird flu problem is OUR bird flu problem, and everybody else's. THAT is why the WHO is involved.

The flu in 1918 was indeed an avian flu, but it wasn't the H5N1 flu. I forget which other one it was, but it has been in circulation around the world for nearly 100 years and we all have been exposed to, and are protected against the evolved version of the 1918 flu. It cannot do the same thing again to us, but another bird flu can.

Most flu comes from birds before getting into humans, IIRC.

[cyberpj]

12. Read this Mother Jones article from early last year:

Does anyone doubt that "seeking to" might already be a done deal?

snip...

In another project that has raised eyebrows among bioweapons experts, a U.S. Army medical scientist in Maryland has been seeking to bring back to life key parts of the 1918 Spanish flu, a lethal influenza virus that killed 40 million people worldwide. While such research could be immensely valuable in fighting another deadly flu outbreak, it might also be used to create such an outbreak, notes Ed Hammond, director of the Sunshine Project, a group critical of American biodefense spending. "If worked in a Chinese, Russian, or Iranian laboratory," he says, "his work might well be seen as the 'smoking gun' of a bio-warfare program."

http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2004/03/02_400.html

I'd like to figure out just when the first case of avian flu was found with respect to this Army scientist's research...

[superconnected]

18. Excellent. Thanks for the link.

[kestrel91316]

34. Today on NPR they reported that they have finished recreating the

1918 flu bug, and have learned some interesting new things about it already. Like it didn't have to do any special adaptive mutation to become highly lethal in humans (please do not ask me how they concluded that, I am not a genetics/virology/flu expert).

[The Kicker]

40. "Labs scramble to purge virus"

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/04/13/flu.recall/

Labs scramble to purge virus


On September 10, the College of American Pathologists sent samples of the virus that caused the "Asian flu" pandemic of 1957 to laboratories in 18 countries, including the United States and Canada.


…The samples, PART OF A PACKAGE OF PATHOGENS sent to laboratories to test their ability to identify them, were last seen in nature in the United States in 1968, Gerberding said. Anyone born since then would presumably have no immunity to the virus, she said.


I wonder if there is something relevant to the current situation in this article. ( The bolded letters are not bolded in the article.) WHO knows?

[cyberpj]

51. I wonder if a LOT of things are relevant - not much response to this post

though:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4980133


I think I'll try again and post it over the weekend...

Probably shorten it and add your info as well.

Thanks.

[northzax]

14. ahh, but how resiliant is it, really?

it spread in the cramped confines of the time, with the lower standards of hygiene in 1918. Frankly, the single best thing you can do is carry a handkerchief (not a kleenex) and wash it daily, and WASH YOUR HANDS all the time.

[bloom]

15. and don't touch the bathroom handle.

or any other doorknob?

If there is an outbreak - people will be carrying bleach bottles around.

(Sounds like entrepreneurial idea for someone - mini-disinfectant wipes/sprays)

People are going to be so paranoid.

[northzax]

16. it's called purell

disinfectant wipes already exist, and soaps. ever wonder why doctors and nurses aren't sick all the time? they wash their hands all the time. it's the biggest single connection.

[kestrel91316]

35. It will spread by way of our money. Dollar bills, coins, etc. Fomites.

[kestrel91316]

87. Roccal is a much nicer disinfectant than bleach - it's a

quaternary ammonium compound. We use it to disinfect in the kitty hospital. Smells nice. Kills germs dead 47 ways. lol

[Bridget Burke]

19. Cramped confines like offices & schools?

Camps for evacuees? Cities? Didn't more people live on farms in the past?

Hygeine is a good idea. Let the dirty people die!

[fishnfla]

26. Dont you mean how virulent?

This is no garden variety virus. It is infinatly more virulent than any common flu.
The bigger problem is nobody has immunity against it.

[northzax]

38. no, not virulent, actually

resiliant. virulent is how quickly it kills you, resiliant is how long it can live outside a host

[Spinzonner]

17. Revenge of the Dinosaurs

[TheWraith]

25. Much ado about nothing.

The risk of bird flu has been magnified out of all proportion. For one thing, the virus itself is nearly harmless. No wild strain is capable of human-to-human transmission. The one strain that did develop this was quickly contained and eliminated. It's not airborne. Many of the people who have developed it have done so as a result of living in the same conditions that their poultry does, or by doing incredibly stupid things like drinking duck blood. These are not hallmarks that make for a pandemic, or even a serious local outbreak.

Even if it did miraculously develop these new traits without compromising its lethality--which is highly unlikely--modern medicine is quite adequate to the task of keeping the thing in check.

Anyone remember SARS? It was supposed to be the big scary new virus on the block, but it turned out to be a firecracker. The same for Ebola, and plenty more examples. The reality is that these things are not a global threat. They're containable. In the past, disease killed millions because it ran virtually unchecked. We understand enough about medicine now to keep such things from happening.

[kestrel91316]

36. Avian flu (the H5N1 in Asia now) is HIGHLY LETHAL in humans.

It has a mortality rate of 50% in humans. Ask any infectious disease specialist - this is NOTHING TO TRIFLE WITH.

1918 flu only had a mortality rate of, what, 15%??

[Irish Mastiff]

41. The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2.5%, not 15%

This flu is 20 times more deadly than the Spanish Flu.

[TheWraith]

48. So what?

Ebola is 85% lethal to humans. We don't have a worldwide Ebola epidemic. High lethality doesn't automatically make an epidemic. And the lethality in an infected host doesn't change the fact that it's extremely difficult to get infected in the first place.

Moreover, as any infectious disease specialist will tell you, highly lethal viruses have a tendancy to self-destruct, because they kill all available hosts, preventing themselves from propagating.

[kestrel91316]

55. Don't lecture me about viruses. I've forgotten more about virology and

immunology than you will ever begin to know. The problem with a virus like bird flu is that with its inherent propensity to mutate and "change its stripes", it can easily go from not highly contagious among humans to highly contagious among humans. Combine this with a high mortality rate and you have a recipe for catastrophe.

Get it????

[Irish Mastiff]

42. There has already been human to human transmission

of this flu. Read the following:
-------------------snip---------------
There have been probable cases of human-to-human transmission before but this is the first in which the person infected - the mother - contracted severe illness and died. It proves the virus can be passed from person to person without losing its lethality. <<

The above comment, with regard to the case cluster in Thailand, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, is not true. The current H5N1 pandemic, which began in December, 2003 has generated at least 9 familial clusters of cases, resulting in 11 likely human to human transmissions, and 8 of the 11 have died (one was in critical condition Jan 22). Unfortunately, the efficiency of human to human transmission of fatal H5N1 influenza is much higher than transmission of H5N1 from birds to humans.

The misconception quoted above, comes from repeated comments from WHO that human to human transmission of H5N1 is very rare. These comments are supported by a flawed database. Collecting and testing of samples, especially for index cases of familial clusters, is poor. Of the 9 clusters, no sample was collected from the index case in 4 instances, including the cluster published in the New England Journal of Medicine. However, the clinical presentation is quite clear and in each cluster a relative has been laboratory confirmed, so there is little doubt that the fatal cases of children or young adults were due to H5N1. However, WHO excludes these cases, thereby eliminating the cluster. These clusters however, answer many questions about human to human transmission of H5N1 this season and last, in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.

-------------------snip--------------
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02040503/Efficient_Human_Transmission_H5N1.html

[TheWraith]

47. As mentioned in my msg, the human transmissible strain was eliminated. NT.

[NickB79]

59. You can't simply eliminate it

Influenza has a fairly simple genome, which mutates rapidly. If such a strain evolved once, but was stamped out, something very similar will surely evolve again over time. With millions of ducks and chickens throughout Asia to replicate in, who are in constant contact with millions of humans on a daily basis, the threat is never fully contained.

[Irish Mastiff]

65. Wraith, I have no idea what you are talking about.

The H5N1 strain hasn't been eliminated, that is what this fuss is all about. The problem will be if the H5N1 infects a human host who already has a regular flu. The two strains could combine, leading to a strain that has the lethality of H5N1, with the transmissability of the regular flu.
You state there is no human to human transmission. You are wrong. I gave you the link. You just blithely state that "As mentioned in my msg, the human transmissible strain was eliminated." How so? I'm sure that there are a lot of doctors and health care workers in southeast Asia who will be glad to hear that news.
Please provide us with the link to support your assertion. Since you also state in the same post that the virus is nearly harmless, I would have considerable doubts about your statement. Try telling it to those who have died. Health care workers who took precautions have contracted this virus, and at least one has died of it. It is human to human transmissible.

[TheWraith]

76. Try figuring out what the fuck you're talking about before you speak

If you had read my message and comprehended it, you would have noticed that I never suggested the entire bird flu had been eliminated, but that the one strain discovered to be capable of human-to-human transmission had been contained and destroyed. And if you seriously believe that there's still a human-to-human transmissible strain in the wild, I strongly suggest that you actually read the available information rather than the panicky, we're-all-going-to-die media reports.

Bird flu is "nearly harmless" in the sense that it's not going to bring about the apocalyptic terrors that everyone is proclaiming it will. It's going to end up as a footnote in the history books.

[Irish Mastiff]

83. You would be more convincing without the profanity.

I asked you for some documentation. I don't see any.

You say thay "eliminated" the strain. I am asking for you to produce some back up for this incredible assertion. We are talking about a pool of millions of potential carriers in the poultry population, and wild geese and ducks besides. How do you know only one strain,as you put it, is responsible for all the person to person infections? And how do you possibly know that all the birds that have that particular strain are dead? Wild birds mixed in with local flocks, then flew away. Thats why poultry in Turkey are now showing up with the H5N1 strain. How on Gods earth can you make that assertion, not knowing if any wild bird had that strain? I would love to see some documentation. I have shown you some.
I am not doing your panicking "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE" response. I am not getting my information from the media. I am getting in from Flu Wiki and web research. I very rarely get any information from the MSM.

There is a difference between panic and concern. I see no indication that you are aware of the difference.

[kestrel91316]

88. I think the person you are responding to must not have any

medical or possibly any biology background. Doesn't seem to be able to properly interpret the stuff he reads............

[artemisia1]

49. Nearly harmless? Dude, get real. The 1918 Influenza was a bird flu

and it killed tens of millions. Hype is hype, but sometimes when someone cries wolf, it is BECAUSE THERE'S A FREAKIN' WOLF AT THE DOOR!!! Now, the odds of this hitting us in any given year are not high, but eventually it will hit. History is littered with the wreckage of plagues - why should our civilization be any different? Because we're more advanced? Uh, we're not much better equipped to handle a 1918 style outbreak than they were in 1918. Sure, we'll be able to describe what killed so many of us better; but little more able to stop it from taking many, many lives.

[TheWraith]

77. Look at recent history, rather than distant history.

Ebola. Super AIDS. SARS. Anyone remember the last dozen times we ran through this dance? It's media-driven panic, pure and simple.

Knowledge of disease and medicine today, as compared to 90 years ago, is the difference between modern astrophysics and believing that stars are holes in the celestial sphere. We're so much better prepared that it's not even funny. Part of the reason that we're so well prepared is that we jump on these things before they ever have a chance to spread.

Sit back, and let the medical community do their work. This is what these people live for. They can deal with it. Running around worried that the sky is falling really isn't going to help.

[Irish Mastiff]

82. We could deal with it if the government had a clue.

--------------snip---------------
Bush administration is 'woefully unprepared' for a flu pandemic
by Plutonium Page
Sat Oct 8th, 2005 at 14:55:12 PDT

Pandemic Flu Awareness Week ends tomorrow. Please visit the Flu Wiki and use their resources to blog about bird flu. The more accurate information people have, the better off we'll be.


So, you're probably wondering what the U.S. government has in the way of a plan for dealing with a possible flu pandemic.

Here's some quick history:
----------------------snip----------------
A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

-----------------------snip---------------

Read the thread, then go to Flu Wiki. Get some facts that you can back up, then respond.
And watch the profanity. You sound like a freeper.


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/8/175512/165

http://www.fluwikie.com/

[kestrel91316]

89. Given the abundance of unqualified cronies in the gov't and

especially in critical positions like the head of Emergency Pandemic Response, I have no confidence whatsoever in our country's ability to deal successfully with Avian Flu. The medical professionals need support from higher up, they need adequate budgets, and they need facilities and equipment and planning that they are being denied year after year.

Remember, the RW wants to shrink gov't down so it's small enough to drown in a bathtub. And that doesn't allow for anything resembling a public health system.

You can pay now, folks (taxes) or you can pay later (deaths).

[NYC]

95. Modern medicine.

...modern medicine is quite adequate to the task of keeping the thing in check...

How many people in the U.S. do not have health insurance, and cannot afford to go to the doctor? Modern medicine only works if you have access to it. Many Americans do not. That is what makes bird flu, or any other communicable disease, a threat.

[savemefromdumbya]

28. is th egovernment going to release bird flu here on purpose?

indictments = bird flu and martial law

[HereSince1628]

29. Gee, I thought Jerry Ford said it was linked to SWINE Flu.

Really. I thought he did. I even got the vaccination via the military although I think it wasn't fully approved.

[doc03]

90. That's the way I remember it too and many people died

from the vaccine and the flu never did show up.

[kestrel91316]

91. For many years, virologists thought the 1918 flu was a swine flu, but

just recently they discovered (by recreating the 1918 virus through genetic engineering voodoo that I do not comprehend)that was, in fact, a bird flu. Not a swine flu.

Please do not ask me how they decided this. The experts do actually know what they are talking about. I think it was published in Nature, and they have to PROVE EVERYTHING to get published.

[Lori Price CLG]

30. Delete - don't want it in this thread. Thanks! n/t

[greenman3610]

31. for the popcorn movie version, try

Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman,
and 12 Monkeys, with Bruce Willis

[mom cat]

32. They actually synthesized this stuff: And it is in a secure location, just

like the anthrax that they sent to Tom Dashchle and that killed people in Florida and the Brentwood post office. Oh yeah, I do NOT feel safe!

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

[kestrel91316]

37. Relax. The 1918 flu virus is virtually harmless to us by now. We have had

nearly 100 years to be repeatedly exposed to its progeny.

RELAX.

The H5N1 in Asia is the one to worry about.

[mom cat]

44. Yes, but what else are they synthsizing? And who is killing all those

microbiologists?

[TNOE]

60. EGGGSS EXACTLY

Exactly my thought too - why have so many scientists died since little Georgie took office? I believe the last number I heard dead was 17?

[pola]

61. do you have the link to the dead microbiologists ?

thanks

[Silverhair]

73. That has been debunked here on DU.

In another post on this thread, someone says that 17 microbiologist have died since W took office. So that is about 4 per year. That is NOT an outrageous number. Do you think that microbiologists live forever? There ARE a LOT of them, so to have 4 drop over in any particular year is no big deal.

How many of any profession die in any particular year?

The tinfoil hat cramps the brain and prevents logical thinking. Automatically assuming that EVERYTHING is a result of a great, all encompassing conspiracy is STUPID.

[Hardrada]

43. My Grandparents were in Chicago in 1918

and near a military camp where there were a lot of casualties. Had they gotten it, I would likely not be here. The other relatives of mine around then lucked out too. Or just kept their distance from everybody. Knowing them, that wouldn't surprise me.

[AccessGranted]

39. Who is Paranoid? Has Anybody Purchased Medication Just in Case?

There are only two anti-viral drugs that treat the H5N1 strain and one more is being tested. Countries including the U.S. are stockpiling these drugs and supplies are running out. In my area it's almost impossible to get a flu shot. It was the same way here last year. I've never gotten a flu shot, but I'm starting to get a little paranoid. Is anybody else nervous about this or do you think it's just another scare tactic? So many times, they screamed "EPIDEMIC" and not much happened? I don't know, maybe it's me, but something feels different this time.

[Bravo411]

46. I would if I had the money

Tami-Flu is expensive stuff. Plus there's a doctor prescription needed. Without any insurance you could be looking at $150 to $200 to get a 5 day supply.

[Nataska]

54. It's resistant already...

I was thinking of getting some TamiFlu, just in case, but it's really expensive, & then I saw this report that some strains of H5N1 are becoming resistant to Tamiflu already. One of my Great grandmothers was killed by the spanish flu.

http://dbs.cordis.lu/cgi-bin/srchidadb?CALLER=NHP_EN_NEWS&ACTION=D&SESSION=&RCN=EN_RCN_ID:24551

[fudge stripe cookays]

63. Sorry about your granny.

My grandma was working as a nurse in Beloit at the time, and told my aunts years later about giving the patients whiskey to drink to keep their throats open (before they started giving them masks).

It's a scary thought. If I get sick, I'm sure I'll go pretty fast. I already have a compromised immune system.

FSC

[Mojorabbit]

70. No it's not

TORONTO (CP) - It appears a misunderstanding, not a mutation, is behind recent reports suggesting the H5N1 avian flu strain is developing resistance to the drug Tamiflu.

The professor of pharmacology from Hong Kong University quoted as warning of an emerging resistant strain of the virus says he was citing old data, not new evidence, when he gave an interview last week.

He was trying to urge GlaxoSmithKline to reintroduce an injectable form of their rival flu drug, Relenza. The resulting report suggested Tamiflu was becoming less useful - a claim that was widely repeated.

"My point is to emphasize on the introduction of injectable drugs. But they use a headline 'Resistant H5N1 appears in Vietnam,' " Dr. William Chui, who is also chief of the pharmacy service of Hong Kong's Queen Mary Hospital, said in an interview.
http://mediresource.sympatico.ca/health_news_detail.asp?channel_id=0&news_id=8048

[Silverhair]

74. Current flu shots are NOT good again Avian Flu.

A flu shot is only good against a particular variety of flu. Last year the flu shot was successful against one type of flu, but then another type of flu rushed in to take it's place. So most of us caught the second type.

We can't make a vaccine against the Avian flu until it mutates to H-H form and we get a look at it. Then we can make a vaccine. The problem is that it will be racing through humanity at the same time that we are trying to make a vaccine.

[rfkrfk]

45. avoid commercial air travel

the ventilation system on commercial jets
is the ideal breeding ground for BIRD FLU.

[drduffy]

50. Folks, this is the real thing....

For further reference go to:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7041/full/435400a.html

You will want to have a store of appropriate masks (if you have to have human contact)

You will want a good store of bleach available for disinfecting.

You will want a good store of food so you don't have to go to grocery any more than absolutely necessary.

You will want to avoid being around people.

Also, as soon as the first case is reported anywhere in the US and it has been established the person to person contact is sufficient for transmission I will be requiring my patients to wear masks when working with me,

and I will be pulling my son from school (a great disease breeding ground).

And I am glad I no longer work at the huge psychiatric hospital down the street.

Now all of this may seem paranoid to you all but my Dad survived the 1918 flu (he's still truckin' at age 93) and I fully intend for my family to survive it - EVEN if folks think I am being paranoid. So be it.

Also, as far a tin foil goes, after 911 and the other crap the corporatist/neocons have done, I am not beyond believing the worst of these folks. I also know that when the world's ferilizer supplies disappear (and they will) and the 'green revolution' ends, the world can't support 6 billion people anyway and you will be looking at 2-to-4 billion die off simply because the food will not be produced to support them.

Don't be naive to think the neocons/corporatists don't already know this. We are the ones behind the curve on this.

p.s. and whether this is a lihop or mihop or 'use it if it happens'.... the end of posse comitatus and use of American military to restrict travel + martial law will be the end of this republic (whatever is left of it right now).

see: http://www.dojgov.net/posse_comitatus_act.htm

[Enraged_Ape]

64. I'm sorry to tell you, drduffy, but you are going to DIE

We all are. No one gets out of this life alive. That's just how it is.

Tomorrow you could be washing the dishes and be electrocuted by some strange wiring SNAFU that you had no idea existed in your home.

Or some stranger will come up to you on the street and ask you for your wallet. You'll give it to them, thinking that will appease them, and then they will shoot you anyway. You will bleed to death in the street.

Or you will scratch your nose and unwittingly inhale some sort of pathogen that will almost instantly set up an inflammation in your meninges. After a few days of delirium and semiconciousness, you'll be stone dead. We will all miss you.

Or you will be diagnosed with a malignant tumor in a part of your body you NEVER thought would be at risk. You will wonder what all that eating of health food and drinking of distilled water was all about. You will rail at the gods (or not) and wonder why they (or whomever) deserted you when you were so good to yourself. Again, as the doctors unplug you from your ventilator and as you breathe your last breath, we will miss you and think of what a great person you were in this life.

The bottom line is this: YOU ARE GOING TO DIE. The central question, though, is this: Are you going to be afraid? Are you going to let this gang of crazies in Washington dictate your daily activities? My answers are no and no.

[abburdlen]

84. I don't live my life in fear

but I still wear a seatbelt when I'm in a car.


Thoughtful precautions don't equal panic

[Logansquare]

52. The 1918 influenza literally killed within hours of first symptoms

It caused the mucus membranes in the respiratory tract to hemorrhage. Strong, healthy young men would feel a malaise and be dead twelve hours later. We have better medical procedures for preventing this kind of death, now...but if millions are effected?

[Bridget Burke]

53. A bad RSV epidemic can put all of a city's hospitals on Drive By status

RSV generally manifests as the common cold, but can be more serious for the very young, very old, etc. Avian Flu would be much worse.

Even if modern medicine has supportive therapy that might help flu victims--how can the public health system provide that therapy? What if health care workers get sick?

Who will pay? Hey, a good excuse to round up the poor. Bush has already announced his plan.

[raccoon]

58. Please, everybody, let's don't lose our heads.

Avian flu is NOT the genetically engineered, shifting antigen "Captain Trips" that wiped out 99.whatever percent of the world's population in Stephen King's THE STAND.

Even IF there is a pandemic and IF there is human-to-human transmission, it doesn't mean we're all going to die.

Not everybody contracted the 1918 flu. Of those who did, many survived it.

The Junta is, as usual, trying to scare us. Trying to get rid of the posse comitatus act. And, as usual, trying to distract us.

[TheWraith]

81. Thank you.

Sometimes it seems as if everyone here goes into a paranoid tailspin when something slightly ominous comes up. I can understand being cautious, but this is rather ridiculous. For a group that is otherwise so distrusting of the media, DUers do seem to lack immunity against these sorts of scare-stories.

[yellowcanine]

62. Hitchcock's "The Birds" comes to mind. I hate those birds. Kill em all.

[pola]

66. DANGERS OF VACCINES - read before you get bird flu vaccine !

www.vaccinetruth.org/doctors_against_vaccines.htm

www.prisonplanet.com/articles/october2004/201004shouldavoid.htm:kick:
Read 'A Shot in the Dark' by Harris Coulter

How America Was Blinded by Merck's Vaccine Lies
http://www.whale.to/vaccines/merck34.html

According to my N.D. (naturopathic doctor) and my homeopathic doctor, a bird flu vaccine will be dangerous, experimental, and ineffective, like all vaccines. (not to mention the danger of Alzheimers' proven in a major study from flu vaccines) But it will make a 'killing' (excuse the pun) for the big pharma companies who just met with G.W. to discuss the Big plan for (what I believe will be) a 'manufactured' pandemic.
God, I hope nothing comes of all this.
Don't you think the timing of the bird flu scare, and bomb threats being all over T.V. is strange, given the impending indictments ?
Doesn't ANYONE but US see the connection ?????






:kick:

[pola]

67. sorry, one of the links above was wrong - here is the right one

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/vaccines/index.htm

[muriel_volestrangler]

68. You are just plain wrong, and spreading false claims

"ineffective, like all vaccines" - that is wrong, and a dangerous falsehood to spread. Many vaccines save lives, and it's extremely irresponsible to claim that non of them work. What do you think eliminated smallpox? A vaccine, of course (hint - that's why we use the term 'vaccine'). Any 'doctor' telling you that no vaccines work is a quack - you should have nothing to do with them.

If you didn't notice, pharmaceutical companies do not make huge profits from vaccines - the problem with vaccine distribution in the USA last year came about because they don't bother making flu vaccines in the USA, because they don't think there's enough profit in them.

The sites you link to are hysterical anti-vaccine sites, peddling their own agenda and products - or, in the case of Prison Planet, a far right nut job site.

[pola]

71. Do a search on 'dangers of vaccines' and see thousands of links

I should not have listed Prison Planet, I agree, BUT the other links I listed are good.
Homeopathy works.
I am living proof.
We can respectfully disagree on the vaccine issue.
Take care,

[TheWraith]

78. Do a search on flying turnips and you'll see thousands of links. NT.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

96. Only 490, but your point is just as valid

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22flying+turnips%22&num=30&meta=site%3Dsearch

[kestrel91316]

93. muriel, here's one possible outcome of the bird flu we can look

forward to: the pseudoscience fans won't get vaccinated, and won't accept conventional treatment, and will be at greater risk of dying, fulfilling Darwin's theory of survival of the fittest.

I say LET them remove themselves from the gene pool if they insist.

[kestrel91316]

94. muriel, here's one possible outcome of the bird flu we can look

forward to: the pseudoscience fans won't get vaccinated, and won't accept conventional treatment, and will be at greater risk of dying, fulfilling Darwin's theory of survival of the fittest.

I say LET them remove themselves from the gene pool if they insist.

[earth mom]

75. Thanks for your posts!

I'm also against the pharma giants vise like grip over the entire country using fear tactics and slick marketing catered to the hypochondriacs they've so successfully created. While I do believe traditional medicine and prescriptions are fine when really and truly needed, I say don't knock naturopathy and homepathy until you've tried it!


As for the indictments, the bird flu hype and the subway threats... the "game" is on...who knows who will come out on top? Us or them? Good or evil? Hmmm...well, you know what they say...good ALWAYS triumphs over evil. At least that's what I'm counting on.

p.s. Welcome to DU! :hi:

[pola]

80. thank you

if you are talking to me, thanks for the welcome !

[Ladyinblack]

85. Bush and the bird flu

I might be tempted to think and hope that this was hyped to distract us from Bush failures, if it were not another failure.

He has again been caught with his pants down. Other countries have made plans and have purchased vaccines to prevent Bird flu. We are way down on the recipient list for vaccines as Bush has failed to plan and act again.

[kestrel91316]

92. "quack, quack, quack, quack ........."

[Mojorabbit]

79. 2,000 turkeys dead from avian flu in Turkey-TV

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L08159068.htm
ANKARA, Oct 8 (Reuters) - About 2,000 turkeys have died from avian flu in western Turkey, CNN Turk reported on Saturday, in the first known case among domestic birds in this country since the recent outbreak of the disease in Asia.

"Yesterday, unfortunately, we experienced a case of bird flu. But everything is under control, every precautionary measure has been taken to prevent it spreading," the television channel quoted Farm Minister Mehdi Eker as saying.
#######
Yesterday Romania and today Turkey. The birds are migrating.
It may or not develop into a pandemic type of flu but hubby brought
me home some tamiflu and amantidine and I have stocked my pantry. If nothing comes of it this year I have plenty to eat and as the tamiflu has a five year shelf life I am good to go. It makes me feel at least like I am doing something to be prepared and this is how I deal with my anxiety.

You can by tamiflu online without a prescription. Hubby is a physician and wrote me a script and then filled it for me.