Tropical Storm WILMA Forms in the Caribbean

[Maddy McCall]

I'll keep this thread updated as news emerges. Will post latest computer models, discussions from other sites, and NHC.NOAA updates. Also, please check the links below for the sources I use to find my info.

Tropical Storm WILMA Forms in the Caribbean

LONDON (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Wilma formed in the Caribbean Sea on Monday and could move into the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Wilma is the twenty-first named storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, making this the equal most active year on record, the NHC said.

The last time so many named storms formed in one season was in 1933.

Oil prices rose over $1 on concern that the storm may yet again batter the U.S. Gulf oil infrastructure. U.S light crude futures were up $1.39 at $64.02 a barrel at 0833 GMT.

The storm was forecast to move toward the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico on Thursday before reaching the Gulf on Friday. The pattern of the storm was likely to be erratic for the next day or two, the NHC said on its website (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).

more at: http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2005-10-17T084112Z_01_MOR731255_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENERGY-WEATHER-WILMA.xml


NOAA LATEST 5-DAY WATCH/WARN CONE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/083849W_sm.gif

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS COMPOSITE



INFORMATIVE HURRICANE LINKS

www.skeetobiteweather.com - Good link for models, although sometimes not frequently updated.
www.wunderground.com/tropical/ - wide array of hurricane info
www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html - meteorologist's blog
www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html - meteorologist's blog
http://flhurricane.com/ - perhaps the best source of links for hurricane info.
www.nhc.noaa.gov - government hurricane prediction center
www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml - the VERY latest info; hurricane hunters recon as it's gathered
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ - absolutely the best site for most recent computer models

Please post good links when you come across them.

[fleabert]

1. great! just what the yucatan peninsula needs, not to mention the

potential for this to hit the gulf coast pretty hard.

I adore the yucatan, and that looks like a direct hit, but hopefully at only a TS or H1, let's hope it dies after that. mexico's funds are severely strapped after that flooding. And I know I don't have to remind anyone of how we are doing these days. Sheesh.

you'd think we had pissed god off or something! Nothing like assholes speaking and acting in her name to make her mad! Thanks a lot Bush!

[opihimoimoi]

2. Shit comes in 3's

NOLA better keep an eye out for this one too.

[Maddy McCall]

3. It's silly, I know....

but I have a hellraiser of a relative named Wilma. I've had a bad feeling about the hurricane that would be named Wilma ever since I first saw the names for this season, back in June.

I do have a bad feeling about this one. :(

[malaise]

4. There is an unbelievable amount of

rain associated with Wilma. It has not stopped raining in Jamaica since Thursday and several parts of the island are under water. Mudslides are another serious problem. She is moving so slowly that she will create a mess.

Most models suggest she will head for the Yucatan, but they cannot handle another drop of water without losing thousands of lives. Wilma has time to become a very serious hurricane.

Here's the rain associated with Wilma


Edit -add link

[bunny planet]

30. I hope you're wrong. My little house is right in one of the paths on the

model. Charlee missed us last year by a hair. This is awful.

:scared: :scared: :scared:

[uppityperson]

5. wunderground 5 day forcast

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

6. What do they do when they get to letter Z and there's more storms? (nt)

[Richardo]

7. "Wilma" in the last named storm this year.

Now they go to the Greek alphabet. Next one will be "Alpha".

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

11. What do they have against the letters X, Y, and Z?

Xerxes?
Yorick?
Zebulon?

[Richardo]

12. I'm pretty sure it somehow ties to a pervasive anti-Brazilian bias

They blame Lula.

[strategery blunder]

8. They start using the Greek Alphabet

Hurricane Alpha, Tropical Storm Beta...

This question has been asked and answered on DU many times...and by the way, there aren't any storms with Z names...unless you count Hurricane Zeta from the Greek alphabet.;)

[RebelOne]

9. They will be starting with the Greek alphabet.

When they run out of names, the next storm will be called Alpha.

[Arkana]

10. There's going to be some jackass newscaster

who does the inevitable joke. "WIIIIIIILLLL-MAAAAAA!!!!"

[Maddy McCall]

13. 2PM Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171748
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY AS IT GATHERS STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.1 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[CAcyclist]

14. kick

[Maddy McCall]

15. SKEETOBITE'S LATEST MODEL PLOT.

[iamjoy]

22. Oh, Yippee Skippee

The Florida peninsula in the projected path. We were starting to feel neglected after all the company we got in 2004.

:eyes:

[Maddy McCall]

23. I wish it would just circle between Florida and Cuba and go into...

the Atlantic and die. It'd be nice if no one had to experience Wilma. :(

[Maddy McCall]

16. Sea Surface Temps showing Gulf is still in 90s.

[gulfcoastliberal]

17. Sick of this shit. More sat imagery:

Page link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[Maddy McCall]

18. Animated Spaghetti plots.

If the plots don't animate in this post, go here:

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?24

[dapper]

19. Oil prices on the rise again...

SSDS

[althecat]

20. Great thread Maddy... I'll give you a hand in Wilma Watch...

Cheers

[Maddy McCall]

21. Hi, Al!

I didn't see your thread when I started this one. :hi:

[Maddy McCall]

24. LATE CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE. AUTO-UPDATES HERE

[althecat]

32. Guidance very clustered now....

[existentialist]

25. The ONLY other year there were this many storms was 1933.

Your original post stated the last time. That is correct, but it was also the only other year with so many named storms. And one more will make 2005 the clear all time record.

This record will probably last until at least, oh, say, maybe 2006.

[Maddy McCall]

26. UP TO 65 MPH, SITTING STILL

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[althecat]

27. Nasa Modis piccy.. (1)

wilma's in the bottom left corner

[Maddy McCall]

28. Up to 70 MPH, pressure dropping.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 180842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS STRENGTHENING.
THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 982 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND
THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT
WILMA IS A HURRICANE. IN ADDITION...TWO MICROWAVE PASSAGES FROM
DIFFERENT SATELLITES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER
THAN 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SHEAR AND
VERY WARM OCEAN...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS MODELS. WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.

WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...
WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH SHOWS A HURRICANE MOVING EITHER OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENISULA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. REMEMBER...THERE IS A
LARGE VARIABILITY AND LARGE ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECASTS. SO AT THIS TIME STAY TUNE AND MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.7N 80.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.8N 80.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 81.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.3N 82.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.6N 84.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 84.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND

[Maddy McCall]

29. Now a Hurricane.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A
DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.

[althecat]

31. NASA Modis Satellite Pic of Wilma (2) - Closeup Of Eye

Note this image was taken today... probably just before Wilma became a hurricane - if you want to see the source pics see.. http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T052911555


closeup of the eye...

[Maddy McCall]

33. HOLY SHIT! SHE'S UP TO 175MPH AND DOWN TO 892MB-LOWEST THIS YR.

3:15 AM UPDATE
The last recon pass measured a central pressure at 892 Mb, which is equivalent to the lowest pressure recorded in the Labor Day Hurricane. Wilma is now very near the lowest pressure threshold known for Atlantic Hurricanes. Winds are also up to 175 MPH, making it a Category 5 hurricane... the unprecedented third of the season. -HF

WWW.FLHURRICANE.COM

[althecat]

34. She is now well past 888... at 881 is the most intense hurricane ever

[althecat]

35. Dupe... self delete

[althecat]

36. Latest advisory a warning for New England

and at this range... I would think you could possibly add CT and Maine to the list.... have a look at post No....

#24 Here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1854920&mesg_id=1857440

to see the forecast long range model tracks..

000
WTNT44 KNHC 191459
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT


$$

[althecat]

37. Much Better NASA Modis Satellite Pic Of Wilma... With Eye Closeup

From: http://tinyurl.com/9xrxt

[althecat]

38. Report by me on Scoop..... GFS indicates Miami to be clobbered...

Supercomputer Weather: Super Hurricane Wilma
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0510/S00260.htm


Still it is a while away yet.. and it could move north or south or perhaps even dissipate over the Yucatan... (unlikely)

[althecat]

39. NHWC Discussion: Cat 5 On Yucatan - "IMPACTS COULD BE CATASTROPHIC"

000
WTNT44 KNHC 202031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY
FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE
MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE
BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

[althecat]

40. New Nasa MODIS image

[althecat]

41. & a close up of the eye