Canada's NDP Ready to Topple Minority Government

[Minstrel Boy]

Canada's NDP Ready to Topple Minority Government

Reuters
Monday, November 7, 2005; 2:39 PM

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's small New Democratic Party said Monday it was no longer willing to prop up the minority Liberal government, raising the chances of an early election.

"We cannot express confidence in a government that is under the leadership of a party that cannot be trusted to clean up the politics that it tainted," NDP leader Jack Layton said in a nationally televised speech. The leftist New Democrats have been the only party keeping the minority Liberal government in power.

If they join forces with the larger Conservative and Bloc Quebecois opposition parties, which have already signaled their willingness to bring the Liberals down, the government would fall as soon as there is a confidence vote.

The first opportunity for a confidence motion will be on Nov. 15, with a vote possible on Nov. 16. If the government is defeated, Prime Minister Paul Martin would have to seek the dissolution of Parliament and a new election.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/07/AR2005110700886.html

Latest poll has Conservatives 31%, Liberals 28%, NDP 20%, BQ 14%

[davidinalameda]

1. this could give the government to the Cons

why are they doing this

is the Liberal gov't that bad

[applegrove]

19. Please. Don't give it to the Cons. Please. I will then have to join the

Block Quebecois.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. I'm pretty clueless about Canadian politcs; is this good?

I'm asking from the perspective of someone considering becoming a patriot-in-exile in Canada if things don't improve here...

[Lautremont]

6. It's not good, but not a disaster either.

It just means an election sooner (just after Christmas) rather than later (in the spring), and so one which will take place with the Gomery Report (a report detailing Liberal fiduciary malfeasance during the Chretien years) a much more recent memory than otherwise.

It could result in a Conservative government, but more likely not. No guarantees either way.

[Greeby]

3. I should think even the right-wingers in Canada are pinkos by comparison

to the Repukes.

Or am I wrong? :shrug:

[stevedeshazer]

38. They're cut from the same cloth pretty much, just not as many of them

Here's a Canadian right-wing site that may seem familiar:

http://www.freedominion.ca/phpBB2/portal.php

[imouttahere]

4. Big mistake, Canada!

Maybe this is why Harper has been so confident recently. And the PQ is making such a big deal about choosing the leadership to replace Landry.

[WhiteTara]

5. Think Ralph Nadir in 2000

same outcome.

[imouttahere]

12. Any chance the spelling of Nader as "Nadir" is a subconscious...

Freudian slip?

[WhiteTara]

26. Nope. That was a deliberate action

his candidacy was a nadir in the intelligence of American voters. They failed to understand that 3rd party candidates are simply spoilers in our system and as an old CIA plant, he came in and did his duty. He hijacked the election for George the Monkey Boy who stole our country.

I saw him at the rally in D.C. and being only 3 feet away from him, I had to restain myself from slapping the everliving shit out of him.

[imouttahere]

28. Oh that's funny!

and good work with the use of Nader/Nadir!

[WhiteTara]

30. Thanks and feel free to use it!

:)

[Minstrel Boy]

14. Not even close.

Nader didn't even poll 3% of the vote in 2000. The NDP are at 20%. The government is polling just 8% more.

Canada has four major federal parties. Does the US have two?

[imouttahere]

29. The answer is clearly NO, we don't have two parties....

I look forward to someday having to decide which Canadian political party I want to join...

[andyarundel]

7. A brilliant move

Is the leader of the NDP were a closet Liberal? Martin is no doubt shaking in his boots, as he can go to the polls with enough support in Ontario to win a majority Gov. I do wonder what Stevie Harper did to Jack Layton to deserve this early exit to being a political footnote in Canadian political history. Jack Layton should be aware that this is not Toronto city hall politics, this is the big time. Big time up also means big time gone, if he pulls this act of stupidity off.

[AX10]

8. If Layton does this, I would support the Liberals 100%

I'm American, but I don't want to see another government go a bunch of right wing wackos. I would want to see the liberals take a majority. The NDP does not deserve to hold the balance of power if they are about to hand the government over to the right wing nutcakes ala Ralph Nader (2000).

[Spazito]

9. Not smart of the NDP, at this point, imo

Force Canadians to go to the polls in January isn't going to please Canadians and fingers will be pointed to the NDP. That will give the CONs a better chance than they would have if the NDP lays off until after the final Gomery report.

BTW, Strategic Counsel is suspect as a polling organization, imo. Here is an interesting article about their polling methods from the last B.C. election:

"On the Friday before the tightest provincial election facing British Columbia this decade, Canada’s most influential newspaper published dramatic poll numbers that appear to be based on biased methodology.

“This is unethical,” Vancouver pollster Angus McAllister told The Tyee. “The Globe and Mail ought to be responsible enough not to publish a poll where the ballot question is preceded by 14 questions that influence people’s answers.”

snip

The Globe’s poll asked 14 questions before inquiring how respondents planned to vote.

“If you’re really trying to find out where people stand, you don’t want to ask them questions that will lead them in any one direction,” observed Steven Rosell, who is a partner to highly respected American pollster Dan Yankelovich."

http://www.thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2005/05/16/GlobePollUnethical/print.html



The Globe and Mail is now using Strategic Counsel exclusively which is interesting in itself.

[imouttahere]

10. As ever, Spazito, you're on top of things....

I think there are big implications with regard to the sovereignty movement in Quebec if a Conservative government is placed in power. Do you think this is why the Bloc is becoming involved? The Bloc & PQ can go back to Quebecers and say "Look, the rest of Canada elected a conservative government. Do you want to be a part of this?"

[Spazito]

15. The Bloc has only one 'mandate' regardless of who is in power

and, sadly, that is to take Quebec out of Canada. They are federal sovereigntists who are biding their time until the Quebec populace is ready to separate and, while they wait, they will fight for the best interests of Quebec first, Canadians, as a whole, second.

It is worrisome, imo, that the numbers wanting sovereignty are increasing again and they are primarily the young people in Quebec. I am hoping this will turn out to be the 'usual' ebb and flow rather than a stronger movement than has been involved since Rene's days.

[imouttahere]

24. I'd bet on "ebb and flow".....but,

not with a conservative majority, which I understand is unlikely anyway.

[Spazito]

25. I think it will be the ebb and flow as well, especially now that there

has to be a very clear question put forward by the PQ in a referendum. There is also the same issues of First Nations land, Labrador, etc, that will not go with Quebec. I don't think the young people supportive of the idea of separatism are aware of the complex issues related to Quebec separation and that their province will not remain intact if a referendum for separation did pass.

[imouttahere]

27. Good point regarding First Nations land, but I thought...

Labrador was with Newfoundland. Not the case?

[Spazito]

31. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to infer Labrador was part of Quebec, I

should have explained more fully. Quebec and Newfoundland (Labrador) have agreements with regard to Churchill Falls hydroelectric power with Quebec Hydro reaping massive profits from the 1969 agreement. It has since been re-negotiated with terms more fair to Newfoundland (Labrador) but the two, Quebec and Labrador, are very much tied due to Newfoundland's (Labrador) ownership of Churchill Falls and Quebec being the province through which the power travels to the U.S. It makes for very complex negotiations if Quebec were to leave and Quebec would lose the millions they now receive as part of the agreement.

Here is an interesting overview of how First Nations would impact the division of territory if Quebec did vote to leave:

http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/bp412-e.htm#B. %20The%20Province%20of%20Quebec’s%20Current%20Boundaries(txt)

[daleo]

17. Interesting

I too think polling has become very suspect. There are many methodological tricks that can be used.

[Lisa]

11. Canadian voters tend to punish those who bring early elections

Especially ones in either the heat of summer, or the freezing cold snow/rain of winter! I hope Jack has taken this into account! Also -- the NDP (and the other parties) are still rebuilding their war chests from the last election. (There have also been provincial elections, in BC for example, and my guess is that a lot of constituency associations just don't have the financial resources right now for a snap election.)

[Minstrel Boy]

13. It's not exactly straightforward, but here's what's happening:

The NDP is indicating they would support a non-confidence motion, but has not announced an intention to introduce one.

Harper today, speaking for the Conservatives, said he does not have a plan to introduce a non-confidence motion, but would support one.

There's a money bill coming up for a vote in early December. My guess is no non-confidence motion will be introduced before then, but the government will be defeated on the money bill. And a post-Christmas election will be called.

Remember this: an election is looming regardless. Martin has vowed to call one within 90 days of Gomery's final report, which is expected in January. Layton's playing it smart, IMO, by distancing the NDP from the Liberals at this stage, particularly when the Liberals are not offering the NDP sufficient guarantees on public health care.

[Spazito]

18. The NDP has not reached the level of 'credibility' in the eyes

of Canadians to be seen 'capable' of governing. Their poll numbers are static as they have been even with their holding the balance of power in this minority government. If they force an election by supporting a non-confidence motion put forward by either the Cons or the Bloc, they will still be seen as forcing Canadians into an early election before it was necessary, ie, after the Gomery Report.

I honestly don't see why he and the NDP would support a non-confidence motion if one did arise. I understand using it as an 'inducement' to the Liberals to strengthen public health care and further restrict any attempts by Provinces to turn to private health care but bringing down the Liberal government early if that is not promised doesn't really achieve anything other than ticking off Canadian voters, imo.

[daleo]

16. I don't believe Layton would do this

Four scenarios:
- Liberal majority, not that likely but possible, bad for NDP
- Liberal minority, most likely, no advantage to NDP
- Conservative minority, not that likely, but bad for NDP
- Conservative majority, very unlikely, but a disaster for everyone.

I just don't see any advantage in pushing an election. It would be a strategic blunder. Better to muscle some health care guarantees from Martin, and go for an election in the spring with some solid achievements to show the Canadian people.

[andyarundel]

20. "This Parliament's Life Is Likely Limited"

"This Parliament's Life Is Likely Limited"
LAYTON'S NON-CONFIDENCE
As Bourque was first to report this morning, NDP leader Jack Layton has decided to pull the plug on the governing Liberals, this in the wake of last week's Gomery Report, a weekend think about a proposed Liberal health care package, various arm twists from the likes of the CAW's Buzz Hargrove and myriad MPs like Ed Broadbent and Bill Blaikie, provincial heavyweights, and ordinary NDP members from one end of the country to the other. The bombshell was let loose an hour or two later in a speech to the Empire Club. Pulling the plug on this Parliament could happen as early as November 15, or perhaps on Dec 8 during a vote on Spending Bills, leading to a Jan 16 vote day. However, Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper, in Montreal today, affirmed he has no plans to advance a Confidence Motion before Christmas. Ditto for Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, who commented in Sherbrooke, both of them reacting after the Layton news broke on this website. Layton said he has no plans to bring forward a confidence motion, noting that "the precise timing is in the hands of the Prime Minister", in a post-speech scrum. Meanwhile, Transport Minister Jean LaPierre was scrummed in Montreal and he indicated that it would be best to wait for the second Gomery Report before calling the election. According to sources inside the NDP, "It could be his finest hour, or it could blow up in his face", this referring to the very real risk that the next election may cost the NDP both seats AND influence due to the election of either another minority government or a new majority government for either the Liberals or the Conservatives. Indeed, it seems Layton is already being blasted for his decision by the Anishinabek Grand Council, who claim "it is not in the best interests of First Nations across Canada". But one Parliament Hill regular told Bourque that "Layton is smart to pull the plug, he¹s hit the end of the road. The only way to capitalize on what he¹s done is to go into an election while the Liberals are down. It¹s about opportunity, and it doesn¹t get much better than this." Already, phone lines are buzzing as NDP insiders reach out to party movers and shakers, all of them waiting, wondering, and watching for the big announcement's blowtorch

[Canadian Socialist]

21. Layton won't back Liberals (Canada)

Last Updated Mon, 07 Nov 2005 17:00:59 EST
CBC News

NDP Leader Jack Layton said his party won't support the Liberal government in any new non-confidence vote as he rejected a Liberal proposal to protect public health and opened the door for a possible Christmas election.

"What the government is proposing is unacceptable," said Layton during a speech in Toronto. "There's no basis for our party to express confidence in this government."

He had said his decision whether to support the Liberals in a future confidence vote rested on the Liberal response to an NDP call for increased protections for public health care.
<snip>
http://tinyurl.com/cybrm

Go Jack! Show that weinie Harper how a real leader leads.

[PDJane]

22. Good Lord, this is

the worst time in the world for an election, what with Harper up in the polls. Bush lite........shit.

[daleo]

23. I don't think the Harper polls will last long.

If they are even true. We seem to go through this every now and again.

[SeanOhio]

32. Confused

If the government falls next week, Martin will have to call an election. Will he also have to call another election when the Gomery report is released?

[Spazito]

34. No, if the government falls on a non-confidence vote, there will be

an election soon after instead of an election after the final report is released.

[daleo]

35. He has promised to call an election after the final Gomery report

Of course, he isn't legally obligated to do that, but I think he would pay a significant political price if he didn't do so. That report (the final one, there has been a preliminary report that was just released) will be in February.

If the government falls on a non-confidence vote, then the governor general would almost certainly insist on an election (although Martin himself would probably drop the writ anyway). There are also some complications about whether the government is defeated on a so-called money bill. It gets into a bit of arcane constitutional law.

[Spazito]

33. Now, another poll by Strategic Counsel has the Liberals up again

in less than a week.

Grits regain support, not momentum, poll shows

It took less than a week, but the Liberals have already rebounded from the popularity hit they took when the Gomery report was released on Nov. 1.

snip

Here are the new numbers, with the percentage-point change from the Nov. 4 poll in brackets:

Liberals: 35 per cent (+7)
Conservatives: 28 per cent (-3)
NDP: 16 per cent (-4)
Bloc Quebecois 13 per cent (no change)
Green Party: 8 per cent (+1)
Regionally, the poll found the Liberals taking a solid lead over the Opposition in Ontario, 44 to 31 per cent.

more

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051107/electionpoll_strategiccounsel_20051107/20051107?hub=TopStories

(This variance in less than a week makes me even more sceptical of Strategic Counsel's polling methodology)

[daleo]

36. Well, upthread I said I didn't think the Harper polls would last long

I have been reading Peter Newman's Mulroney book. Even though Newman is rather sympathetic to Mulroney, going through the book brings back such unpleasant memories that you are quickly reminded of why Canadians still shy away from the Conservatives, 12 years later.

[Spazito]

37. It is very true re Mulroney, he was SO disastrous to Canada!

He is fully to blame for the extinction of the Progressive Conservatives and for the emergence of the right wing Reform/Alliance/New Conservatives.

Given the R/A/C is the extreme of conservative views, Canadians are even more skeptical, imo, than they would be if the Progressive Conservatives had survived.