STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY NOV 5....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 5, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 446
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 352
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 327 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 20 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 227
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 711
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 4, 2003

Dow... 9,838.83 -19.63 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq... 1,957.96 -9.74 (-0.49%)
S&P 500.... 1,053.25 -5.77 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.31% -0.06 (-1.44%)
Gold future... 380.00 +3.00 (+0.80%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif (Jeez, dry as a mouthful of sawdust again)

"The Market At A Glance"

Go read this "WrapUp" if you like charts, technical data and pat "positive" and "negative" comments with little explaination.

Here's a sample:

As we can see from the chart below, both the 10 and the 20-day components are rising, which means that the intermediate-term trend for the SP500 remains positive.

At the moment, the S25 is rising, which means the majority of our technical indicators are rising, implying technical strength.

The Quantifiers are well above zero and rising, which means the overall technical picture is positive.

Notice that the 10-day BSE is rising strongly, it is also far above the zero line, signifying that there is far more buying pressure than selling pressure.

and so on...

[JNelson6563]

3. Ah well, they can't all be masterpieces

I suppose! The Toon on the other hand, haha brilliant!

So Wednesday! Just a day away from UE #s. Do I have any wagers on what the revisions will be??

I suspect today will be much like yesterday, kinda quiet and, in the end, a bit to the downside.

Anyone notice how much Team Bush is hanging on that fake GDP #? Pretty ballsy move, I think it will backfire. Their arrogance seems to be doing a lot of that lately.

Anyone going to be around today? I have to head out with hubby later to birthday shop for my daughter, turning 15 this Saturday. I'll be in and out but first half of the trading day, more out I suspect.

Will catch some blather in a bit, time to inspire a sense of urgency in my sleepy young lass. :-)

Julie

[Maeve]

4. Making a few guesses

Tomorrow, the initial claims are expected to go from 386K to 380K, according to this chart I'm betting that they might actually go up, but the revision will show a drop from week to week--that has been the consistant pattern of late, although there has been a gradual over-all decrease in the numbers.

Today's Factory Orders report is expected to go from August's -0.8% up to 0.6-0.9%--and the crowd will go wild.

On the positive side--Hubby went to a computer seminar yesterday and came home with more goodies/freebies than he has in a long time. that is a strong indication that the computer folk believe the economy is improving or about to.

And on the homefront, Eldest Son attended a speech at Ohio State yesterday by John Glenn. He forgot his camera, but came home with Glenn's autograph on his PDA ("Guess I won't be upgrading this anytime soon!" he said)

Kids have a late start day, so I had a bit of quiet this morning...which is just about up. Have a good day at the casino, folks!

[mhr]

13. Hmm, I Wonder How This Might Be Reflected In The UE Numbers?

A short snippet from CBS news indicates that US job losses continue.

Despite the GDP growth hype last week, it is clear to those unemployed
that the US economy is still faltering.
------
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=37929.4167939815-809414361&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

10:00am 11/04/03

U.S. October layoffs surge 125%, Challenger says By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Layoff announcements from U.S. companies more
than doubled in October to 171,874, the highest in a year, according to
the monthly tally released Tuesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray
& Christmas. October is typically the largest month for layoff notices,
as companies slash costs at the end of the fiscal year. The Challenger
survey is not adjusted for seasonal factors. Layoff announcements had
fallen for three months in a row before October's 125 percent increase.
In October, the auto industry sacked 28,363 workers, followed by 21,169
in the retail sector. Telecommunications companies cut 21,030. So far in
2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced.

[ozymandius]

2. At this moment, I must leave.

A good morning to you!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I look forward to reading this stock market story later today. Thanks to all who tracked the markets' performance yesterday. Do you think that the observation I posted is, in any way, a reliable guage?

All things good,

Ozymandius

[WillyT]

5. That 'Toon Is Priceless !!! --- Thanks For All You Guys Do !!!

:bounce::toast::bounce:

:hi:

[Maeve]

6. Quick note on how "news" can mislead

Today's news on home mortgages:Demand for new home loans surges http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/05/news/economy/mortgages.reut/index.htm

Last week's news:Mortgage Applications Slip http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34600-2003Oct29.html

Follow the story, not just the latest spin.

[JNelson6563]

7. Well! What do you know?!?

They've made things look better than they are!! I can't believe it!! <snarf>

You know what I look forward to? The revisions to the GDP. Wonder what the final real number will be.

Julie

[54anickel]

9. Perhaps CA folks locking in rates...

for rebuilding? Also know a few folks here that are selling and buying smaller, less expensive homes..."downsizing" and cashing in on their home equity.

Numbers could very well be up, but for not so rosy reasons?

[JNelson6563]

8. At the starting gate:

Dow 9,813.72 -25.11 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,956.01 -1.95 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,050.20 -3.05 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.295% -0.010


5 minutes in.

Seems the cheerleaders are scraping the barrel for new cheers. Hmmm.

Julie

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.74 Change +0.51 (+0.55%)

and some interesting words about the yen

http://www.mondaq.com/i_article.asp_Q_articleid_E_23143

Top-Down: "Sterilized" Versus "Unsterilized" Intervention in the Currency Market. The Result is the Same Under ZIRP

After using over JPY13.5 trillion in an effort to keep the yen from appreciating, the BOJ apparently has changed tactics. On Friday of last week, it made a surprise and unusual decision at its Policy Board meeting to ease monetary policy further by raising the upper limit on the target of current-account deposits by¥2 trillion to ¥32 trillion yen, for a new range of ¥27-¥32 trillion yen. This is the first easing of its policy in nearly five months.

What is the BOJ up to? Just weeks ago, Governor Fukui was denying there was a need for such steps. The stock market evidently liked what they saw in the BOJ policy move, while the Yen shot up to the ¥108/US$ level, or well above the ¥115/US$ level the BOJ had fought so hard to maintain with massive currency market interventions to date.

The BOJ action appears aimed at several policy goals:

They want to offset the deflationary impact of a stronger yen, as a strong yen does work to reduce GDP growth as well as corporate profit growth.
They hope they can keep a lid on the spike in long-term bond rates, and to show the markets they are as committed as ever to maintaining their quantitative easing measures.
Since the G7 pronouncements have apparently made it more politically difficult to aggressively intervene, they appear to be trying a different tactic, as inevitably the stronger yen will illicit howls of protest from corporations and their supporters in the government.

But economists have long maintained that currency market intervention, particularly "sterilized" intervention, does not work if the economic fundamentals do not support it. Moreover, there is essentially no difference between "sterilized" and "unsterilized" intervention under a ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) regime. The level of the yen-both under sterilized or unsterilized intervention-is only relevant to the extent the level of the yen is a function of interest rates, but the monetary base (defined as banknotes and coins in circulation plus current account balances at the BOJ) and short-term government bills are almost complete substitutes under ZIRP. Thus it makes no difference whether the intervention is sterilized or not.

Ergo, foreign exchange traders correctly assumed that by changing tactics, the BOJ was giving them a green light to trade the yen higher. This makes us even more convinced that the Japanese yen is heading through ¥100/US$ and could very well challenge its prior high of ¥79/US$.

[JNelson6563]

11. 10:53 update and blather

Dow 9,790.52 -48.31 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,941.26 -16.70 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,046.19 -7.06 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.307% +0.002


CBS MarketWatch
Selling accelerates on Wall Street
Wednesday November 5, 10:38 am ET
By Michael Baron


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -The major U.S. equity indexes tumbled Wednesday, moving convincingly lower after seesawing in lackluster early action amid mixed earnings results and slightly upbeat data on the factory and services sectors.
Traders are also awaiting the October employment report from the Labor Department on Friday, and tech bellwether Cisco Systems' financial results after the bell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) lost roughly 46 points, or 0.5 percent, to 9,792.83, while the Nasdaq Composite (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) dropped 13.34 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,944.52.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) lost 0.6 percent to 1,046.72, while the Russell 2000 Index (CBOE:^RUT - News) of small-cap stocks slumped 1 percent to 533.25.

The selling follows a strong October performance for equities, and a rally on Monday before Tuesday's slight losses.

Despite a sharp falloff in demand from the Pentagon, orders for new factory goods rose 0.5 percent in September and the decline in August orders was shallower than earlier estimated, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Orders for factory goods in August fell a revised 0.3 percent, less than half the 0.8 percent decline initially estimated by the department.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/031105/6812f8dcb9b5bda36229d2b3c463bfe9_1.html

Onward hooooooooooooooo!!!

Julie

[mrsteve]

12. Afternoon all - 12:00 numbers

Lunch lull started early this morning, as the movement has been pretty much sideways for the last hour. All under the red, though.

Dow 9,799.86 -38.97 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,948.09 -9.87 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,047.49 -5.76 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.320% +0.015

[mrsteve]

14. Yahoo Finance blather

Lots of apologies in here...
"12:00PM: What promised to be a relatively unexciting session ahead of tonight's earnings announcement by Cisco (CSCO 21.40 -0.18) and Friday's Employment report turned into a round of moderate profit-taking, instead... While the major averages opened the session right around the unchanged line, their neutral sentiment turned sour on the heels of two second tier economic reports... Specifically, the ISM Services report checked in at 64.7 (consensus 63.4) and was telling of the expanding services sector... Separately, the Factory Orders report checked in at 0.5% (consensus 0.6%)...
Although slightly below the consensus, the report displayed a healthy upward revision in the durable orders portion and a decrease in inventories, which is likely to result in a production pick-up in the months ahead... Nevertheless, according to Briefing.com's sources, institutional trading desks were disappointed with the economic data, noting that the market had been pricing in strong numbers... Accordingly, sellers took control of the session, forcing the market and the bulk of the sectors lower...

Among the most notable laggards are the internet, networking, semiconductor, telecommunications, hardware, and financial sectors... Leaders to the upside include the oil services, gold, drug, and homebuilding groups... The latter is resilient on the heels of a Mortgage Bankers Association report indicating that applications for mortgages rose 11.1% and refinances rose 0.3% in the week ended Oct 31... Elsewhere, the bond market is in the red across the yield curve, with the 10-year note down -6/32, bringing its yield up to 4.32%..."

[mrsteve]

15. 12:45 - slowly rising

Although in the red, the indexes are only down under a half percent, so all in all a pretty nothing day so far (compared to the last month, that is...)

Dow 9,800.09 -38.74 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,948.84 -9.12 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,047.86 -5.38 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.320% +0.015

[SpyHunter]

16. Stock market is UPP, GDP UPPP!!

The economy situation is deplorable, I can't believe it is rising at such an exponential rate. 7.2% is not good for the nine. Dean better start coming up with ideas about economy if he wants to combat this incredible growth. Did you know that we have not had this type of growth since the Reagan era. This is not good. People might start liking these crazy ideas of cutting taxes.

[JNelson6563]

17. haha! Funny stuff

Good one.

Is this the first official disruptor visit in the SWT? If so how exciting!!!!

Julie

[htuttle]

19. They seem to be making the rounds today...

:eyes:

[mrsteve]

20. Good pickup Julie

I've gotten so used to not seeing problem posts on this thread that I quickly read his comment and just thought the guy was sarcastic.

Didn't even notice the very low post count.

[KayLaw]

22. Pretty funny

I thought he was just being sarcastic, too. Does he really think the stock market has gone up since Bush took over? Does he not realize the economy was growing at 7 percent the last quarter of 1999? Well unemployment and the defecit are sure way up so I'll give him that!

Speaking of the big whoopty-doo 7.2 number, if it's revised downward I wonder when they'll let us know? I'm keeping track.

[mrsteve]

24. You make a good point, according to the 5 year charts

You are right - the market still has to go up about 10% to get to where Clinton left it in 2000 before * trash talked it down.

[ozymandius]

27. Welcome to the Casino Watch, Spyhunter.

Now that we know the game is rigged, perhaps we can try to explain why October unemployment is up 125%. If time allows, we might also turn our attention to ways to boost the economy without the pillar of defense spending.

[mrsteve]

18. 1:40 - oops, back down and sideways

What little joy that seemed to pop up in the last hour is now gone.

Dow 9,789.35 -49.48 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,949.28 -8.68 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,047.35 -5.90 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.326% +0.021

[mrsteve]

21. Yahoo Finance is bored too

Also, it's "wait for the jobs report, wait for the jobs report, wait for..."

Based on what I heard on the radio yesterday from Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the report will really stink. Layoff announcements were the highest in October since 2002.

Yahoo Fi Updates:
"1:30PM: More of the same with the Dow drifting near its session lows and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq vacillating off their worst levels of the day... With 790 mln and 1.2 bln shares traded on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, respectively, volume is lighter than the levels witnessed of late, particularly on the Nasdaq... The moderate volume reflects a lack of conviction on the part of traders... The hesitation comes ahead of tonight's earnings release by market mover Cisco (CSCO 21.43 -0.15) and Friday's Employment report...
The latter will shed more light on the employment situation, which has been the only component missing in the recovery ... Briefing.com, for one, believes employment is a lagging indicator and continues to look for signs of stabilization..."

[mrsteve]

23. Link to Challenger report - tomorrow's market could get bloody

October Layoff Report:

"The number of job cuts announced by U.S. employers more than doubled in October to the highest level in a year, a report said Tuesday, raising worries that persistent layoffs would undercut the economy's robust recovery.
Planned layoffs at U.S. firms shot up to 171,874 jobs in October, from 76,506 in September, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in their monthly job cut report. That was the highest amount since 176,010 job cuts were announced in October 2002."

[ozymandius]

29. So how long will the Bushit Administration hang onto those fake GDPs?

Like Julie said above - Bush keeps waving that 7% growth around like it's the goose that laid the golden egg.

employment is a lagging indicator and continues to look for signs of stabilization..."

How long have they been looking?

Do I sound like a disruptor or what?

[mrsteve]

25. 2:15 - more of the same

Dow 9,791.20 -47.63 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,949.39 -8.57 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,047.66 -5.58 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.328% +0.023

Maybe a few more disruptors would liven things up around here.... :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

26. Hi folks. Did I miss much?

The boy is asleep. So I have a few moments to look around.

[JNelson6563]

30. Nice catch up reading today

Lots of excitement for such a dull day.

Holy cow I can't believe the lay-offs in October posted above! Two questions...what will last week's #s be revised to? How much will they "adjust" this week's #s tomorrow??

Think about this, while much has been made in the librul meeeedia about the GDP, the market seems disinterested, even, dare I say it? Skeptical. I think everyone but those most blinded by wishful thinking know, deep down, that number is as fake as the weekly UE #s they feed us. Call me crazy but I think the game is up and the situation thus far kept at bay may now begin to erupt.

(Here's hoping a disruptor or two were able to sound out all the words and join in the fun. ;-) )

2:39 and $$ leaving Stocks and Treasuries.....


Dow 9,791.57 -47.26 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,952.82 -5.14 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,048.47 -4.78 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.332% +0.027


Julie

[ozymandius]

32. I find the UE figure appalling.

The weekly figures equalling a 125% increase are final figures - no updates forthcoming. So it makes me consider the importance of the weekly figures even with the add-on revisions. Krugman spotlighted the fallacy in his column last week of weekly UE figures and their subsequent upward revisions, as you may recall. So I propose to the universe a paradigm shift from weekly to monthly import. At least monthly figures provide a more 'unedited' picture of this paradox of booming GDP and massive job loss.

[JNelson6563]

33. I'll second your motion!

They've been using the weekly to play the numbers. Up until now they've played well and won plenty....

Julie

[54anickel]

35. Hope low post counts don't automatically = disruptor...

Certainly do not mean to be....

[JNelson6563]

38. Not at all!

It's all about content. :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

28. Was it something I said??? Lookout below!

Dow 9,778.75 -60.08 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,949.06 -8.90 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,047.11 -6.14 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.337% +0.032

[JNelson6563]

31. Isn't it sort of odd to see

$$ flow is out of both Stocks and Treas. at about equal pace? That smells funny.

Glad you're getting a quiet afternoon home. Good for the spirit. :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

34. 3:15 - Into the last hour - Nasdaq noses up, Dow stays put

A little activity to wake people up before close.

Dow 9,781.86 -56.97 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,953.02 -4.94 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,048.38 -4.87 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.351% +0.046

[mrsteve]

36. 4:00 - Casino closing numbers

Nasdaq heroically throws itself into the positives just before close.

Dow 9,820.83 -18.00 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,959.37 +1.41 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,051.81 -1.44 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.350% +0.045

[Shrek]

37. Cisco smashes estimates

CNN Money link here.

Cisco is supposedly a bellwether so this may be a market mover tomorrow. After-hours trading in the futures market is already showing noticeable gains.