STOCK WATCH THREAD, Thursday, November 6, 2003

[Maeve]

Thursday, November 6, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 445
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 353
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 328 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 21 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 228
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 712
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............S&P FUTURES



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 13, 2003
Dow 9,820.83 -18.00 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,959.37 +1.41 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,051.81 -1.14 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.35%

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DOW…...........NASDAQ…........S&P (auto-update, hit refresh/reload)


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details &
links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actionsCitizens For Legitimate Government
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Top o' the mornin' Maeve!

I hope nothing is seriously wrong in Ozy-land. Great Toon BTW! haha

Well it's EU #s day!!!! Futures have improved somewhat but I can smell the anxiety.

Could be lots of fun today....

Julie

[Maeve]

5. Morning, Julie!

:donut::donut::donut:

Haven't heard from Ozy; just figured he must have his hands full so I went ahead and started the thread.

Cisco's numbers don't seem to be carrying as much weight as last night's reports thought they would (gee, is the expectations game wearing thin?)

Tomorrow we'll see how many jobs were added to the total pool. That should be interesting.

[wetbandit2003]

23. Good mornining DU

Looks like there is caution on the street...
Dow Down 49......
From the stuff we have been going over in my finance class...
I conclude that Selling at this point might not be a bad idea,,,
But if the friday reports show a recovering labor market, Some
investors are going to learn a painful lesson that hindsight is 20/20.
I predict the unemployment level will be between 5.9-6.0% due to
the increase in the ISM numbers.
WET--- :hi:

[JNelson6563]

2. A wee bit o' the Wrap-up

Oil is the name of the game....

"The Oil Game"

Crude oil in New York had its biggest one-day gain in three months after the Energy Department reported that US inventories increased less than expected in the week ended Friday. The Energy Department reported that supplies rose 100,000 barrels to 291.9 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected an increase of 209,000 barrels. However, and this is where it gets interesting, The American Petroleum Institute said that stockpiles fell by 1.38 million barrels last week. As an investor in the Oil E&P sector, I am beginning to ask what the intent of each of the reporting agencies are; if there is one. Taking into account that the inventory numbers affect the price of the commodity so severely as today when the price moved some $1.55 a barrel on the news that inventories had shrunk, maybe we need some accuracy here. The problem is who is telling the truth and which report do you use in evaluating the current market conditions?

With today's 5% spike in the price of oil, one would naturally expect the bids for many of the integrated oil companies and producers to follow suit. However, as has been the case for some time now, that was not the case. The Amex Oil Index fell today 0.20%, as most of the large producers ChevronTexaco, RoyalDutch and ExxonMobil, all finished in the red. These companies are still out of favor within the investing circles even with $30/barrel oil and record revenues and earnings on the books. At some point investors are going to stop chasing the money losing technology stocks of today and 1999 and shift to the companies “actually” earning money for their shareholders.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

"Who is telling the truth?" indeed!!!

Julie

[Maeve]

3. Happy Initial Claims Day, Marketeers!

Well, let's see where the figures end up today....y'all know my bet--no change in tactics over the last few weeks. For the record, (currently) last week's figure is 386K, with predictions for 380K.

To correct one mistaken impression that I've seen--the numbers of Initial Claims is just that; first claims for unemployment. That figure is not influenced by people "dropping off the rolls" due to long-term unemployment. The unemployment rate of 6.1% is, but the Initial Claims just reflects how many folks are new to joblessness, however temporary or long-term that may be. However, in an economy which has been down so long, a decrease in Initial Claims can indicate that the job market has shed to the point of "bare bones". (Not saying that IS what has happened, just noting the alternative explanation you don't always get from the happy-talkers) Until the economy starts adding net jobs to make up for the @THREE MILLION we've lost, folks are still going to be hurting.

[mhr]

6. Amen, Tell It Brother Maeve, Been Unemployed For 39 Months

eom

[Maeve]

9. Thanks, but please....

It's Sister Maeve...and good luck!

[mhr]

32. Sorry Sister Maeve, Duly Chastised, Tail Between The Legs

eom

[Maeve]

33. Guess I need to bring this gif out more often!

[JNelson6563]

8. I wonder about this

I realize the thing about initial claims and all but at nearly 400,000 a week of newly unemployed how come we're not at like 20,000,000 unemployed?

Julie the simple

[Maeve]

11. Rollover

Some if not most find new jobs. Not necessarily jobs that pay as well, or jobs they can keep, but jobs.

The 400K figure is supposed to be the point at which the job market is still contracting--being under it is at best an indication that the hole isn't still getting larger.

[DUreader]

15. Isn't this the beginning of the Holiday Hiring Season or...

What we could now call the Holiday Lowered Firing Season(we'll need to keep you til the new year)?

[jamesinca]

4. Good morning

I still have the question of the National Guard coming home next year. What happens when they are given back their jobs that are being held by temporary workers now?

[Maeve]

7. The temps will get other jobs--from other Reservists

We're sending more over, since no other country wants to join our bully little war effort.

on edit: see this thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=202978

40,000 new National Guard and Reservists to go to Iraq.

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.62 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

and it appears that the BoJ will continue with its intervention policies -

on the other hand, it is interesting to note that someone else has noticed that the market appears a bit odd

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33759-2000Jun21.html

The Nasdaq Composite, which had been down as much as 20 points, closed up a point and a half, which was what the Standard & Poors 500 stock index lost. The S&P closed at 1051.81; the Nasdaq index at 1959.37.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9820.83 with an 18 point loss after being off as much as 60 points during the session.

Analysts offered the usual explanation for stock prices pulling back after hitting a new high -- profit taking. Traders who jump in and out of stocks on a daily basis often figure that any big gain or new high is an opportunity to sell, so it is routine for prices to fall after a big day like Monday, when all the indexes hit new highs for the year.

have a great day marketeers!

[JNelson6563]

12. Jobs

348,000 down by 43,000 (last wk revised to 391,000)

IMO they are getting bolder and bolder withthese tactics.

Julie

[UpInArms]

14. I agree with the "bolder" statement

and wonder if the market sees through such a cheap trick -

the weekly upward revisions - the twisting of statistics -

will they "tweak" the unemployment figures tomorrow?

how can they justify this decrease in claims? are there just more people in the long-term unemployed and therefore, fewer people to layoff each week?

[JNelson6563]

16. the revision will be tossed in as an afterthought

when next week's incredible drop is announced. I'm thinking next week will be 215,000. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

13. Initial Claims fall to lowest since Bush took office

Jobless claims fall to 348,000 in latest week, lowest since Jan. 2001. Details coming.
http://money.cnn.com/

Okay, color me surprised and pleased to hear that low a figure! Not surprised that last week's figure went up, tho....and on edit, I wonder if the fires in California might have impacted the numbers. We tend to see drops the week a disaster hits a major area as folks don't get to the unemployment office to file.

[JNelson6563]

17. 9:57 and the party has started

Dow 9,790.83 -30.00 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,960.07 +0.70 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,049.46 -2.36 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.402% +0.052

The Street seems wholly unimpressed by the absolutely fabulous GDP and EU #s. Maybe they don't like plastic in a china shop either.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

18. The Greenman speaketh

Things were heading up until Greenman had to come out and blather on about deficits and other bothersome facts. Now they are heading down again.

10:18

Dow 9,786.68 -34.15 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,958.87 -0.50 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,048.19 -3.62 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% +0.046

Julie

[UpInArms]

22. link to Greenspan's double-good+ speak

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2003/20031106/default.htm

excerpt:

The foregoing relatively optimistic short-term outlook for the U.S. economy is playing out against a backdrop of growing longer-term concern in financial markets about our federal budget.

As you know, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that, if current policies remain in place, the unified budget will post deficits throughout the remainder of this decade--a sharp turnaround from the large and growing surpluses projected just a few years ago.

Given the events of the past three years--the economic downturn, the retrenchment in equity markets, the increased need for spending on homeland security, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq--some deterioration in the federal budget balance was probably unavoidable, particularly in the short term. One source of deterioration--the buildup of a larger military force structure--will not persist indefinitely. Merely maintaining a given force structure rather than increasing it will remove an important factor driving the deficit higher.

Of course, the deterioration in the fiscal balance has already increased the level of debt relative to GDP, and thus has elevated the starting point from which policymakers will soon have to address the budget implications of the impending retirement of the baby-boom generation.

Recent budget deliberations are not encouraging. The current debate appears to be about how much to cut taxes or how much to increase spending. No significant constituency seems to support taking the actions that will be necessary to move toward, and one hopes achieve, budget balance. In retrospect, the emergence of budget surpluses in the late 1990s eroded the discipline that emerged as a consequence of the earlier fear of ever rising and, hence, potentially destructive deficits.

Indeed, many of the rules that helped to discipline budgetary decisionmaking in the 1990s--in particular, the statutory limits on discretionary spending and the so-called PAYGO rules--were allowed to expire. Many analysts properly continue to be concerned that, without these enforcement mechanisms and the fundamental political will they signal, the built-in bias in favor of red ink will once again become entrenched. Policymakers have become all too aware that government spending programs and tax preferences can be easy to initiate but extraordinarily difficult to shut down once constituencies develop that have a stake in maintaining the status quo.

The now-expired major provisions of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, and the act's later modifications and extensions, provided a set of rules that helped translate a general commitment to fiscal discipline into the actions necessary to achieve it.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. the joys of overpriced plastic

Dow 9,787.57 -33.26 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,958.78 -0.59 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,048.16 -3.65 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% +0.046

and the shock (shock, I tell you) of the Yahoo cheerleaders

10:00AM: Equity market weakens further with the Nasdaq surrendering most of its gains... Stocks have gotten little mileage from today's influx of upbeat news - a 43K decline in jobless claims for the week of November 1 to its lowest level in 34 months, a preliminary Q3 productivity figure of 8.1% that rose at its fastest rate in 18 months and nearly matched the consensus estimate of 8.5%, a batch of mostly upbeat October same store sales, and a number of solid earnings reports...

The market's attention, rather, has remained fixated on the idea that such results have been arguably priced into the market following its double-digit run this year... Such an unenthusiastic response is reminiscent of the market's reaction to Intel's (INTC 33.61 -0.13) strong Q3 (Sept) report on October 15... The indices made little headway, undercut by valuation concerns that quelled buying activity off the reassuring numbers...NYSE Adv/Dec 1084/1394, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1191/1280

[Maeve]

20. 10:52 and redder

Dow 9,783.79 -37.04 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,956.44 -2.93 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,048.13 -3.68 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.398% +0.048

[JNelson6563]

21. Ok first one to solve the mystery wins

an all expense paid trip to the middle-east destination of your choice: Incredibly amazing GDP growth coupled with absolutely fabulous EU#s equal red-ink pretty much everywhere. How can this be??

Are we no longer voices in the wilderness with tin-foil wrapped tightly around our little heads? Have we skeptics of the DU SWT gone mainstream???

Have the TeamBush thugs gotten too blatant for even their own cheerleaders?

Julie

[On the Road]

24. Bank of England Raised Interest Rates

That's got to get someone's attention.

[JNelson6563]

25. 12:17 update

Dow 9,792.16 -28.67 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,959.58 +0.21 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,049.49 -2.32 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.414% +0.064

Julie

[JNelson6563]

26. ral-ly! ral-ly!!

1:29 and things are looking up ('cept for the bloody nose in Treasuries)

Dow 9,811.28 -9.55 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,966.11 +6.74 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,052.16 +0.34 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.416% +0.066


Julie--heading out to do some shopping

[Maeve]

27. 2:25 and still cheery

Well, it has been cheerier, but...
Dow 9,824.97 +4.14 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,970.00 +10.63 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,053.84 +2.03 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.422% +0.072

[Maeve]

28. 3:07 and ticking up

Dow 9,831.72 +10.89 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,971.02 +11.65 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,054.95 +3.14 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.410% +0.060

[Maeve]

30. Final numbers

Seems to be a pattern lately of "long, hard slogs"--low start rising during the day.

Dow 9,856.97 +36.14 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,976.37 +17.00 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,058.05 +6.24 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.418% +0.068

[better2know]

29. "Not a bear-market rally but the greatest sucker rally in history"-Barrons

Cross posted on general discussion forum too.
-BTW you'all rock-

Barron's magazine

http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/barrons/

Jeremy Grantham — of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co

"With 35 years experience under his belt and $48 billion under management at the firm he helped found, Grantham is well worth listening to.
...
The simple story is the market is overpriced and will go to a trendline P/E, which we now believe is 16 times...Currently, the market is around 24 times trailing earnings, on a fairly generous earnings estimate. This is not just a bear-market rally but the greatest sucker rally in history.
...
What is unique to this cycle is debt has not declined. It has, in fact, risen dramatically at the government level, quite dramatically at the corporate level, dramatically at the foreign level and very substantially and steadily at the consumer level. This is not a good picture."

-in the article he says the boom is tied to third year of the presidential cycle, when everything booms regardless of value to pump jobs, and further that 2004 should be "neutral", and 2005-6 will probably be "painful" a "black hole".

Wow!-The "nut cases" and I having been saying this for years, and now it's in Smartmoney, Barron's, and publicly out of the mouth of a huge trader.

-I think DC will try anything to hold it together, but it all depends on the actions of the international community.-

Do you think that the bubble will burst sooner or later?
When and why?

edit: to remove redundancy

[JNelson6563]

31. Quite a statement!

I agree, it's for suckers and the debt is a big part of why my view is what it is.

Thanks for posting that.

Interesting end to the day. Tomorrow will be the big EU#'s racket. Catch you all then! :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

34. Good read - and hello to everyone

Looks like Ozy and I both had to take a powder today. Sometimes even a lightly annoying job can cause enough activity to keep you tied up all day long.

Love the article - cofirms what a lot of us sceptics and contarians have been saying, that something in the basics of the economy stinks right now, and it's only manipulation and slight of hand that is keeping the stock market up. All in te service of getting * re-selected, of course.

Good to see someone else loudly use the term "sucker rally" in public discourse also.