Greenspan: Economy Set to Create Jobs

[durutti]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031106/ap_on_bi_ge/greenspan_economy_5

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) delivered an upbeat assessment of economic prospects, saying Thursday the odds "increasingly favor" a revival in job growth.

However, he also warned about long-term threats posed by the soaring federal budget deficit. If that red-ink problem is not brought under control by the time Baby Boomers start retiring, it could have "notable, destabilizing effects" on future growth prospects, he said.

In the debate over how to fix the deficit problem, Greenspan sided with President Bush (news - web sites) and the Republicans, who argue that government spending should be cut to deal with the deficit rather than raising taxes.

On the economy, Greenspan cited a number of favorable recent developments pointing to stronger economic growth and said that even the job market, which has continued to shed jobs this year, seems to be finally turning around.

"The odds ... increasingly favor a revival in job creation," Greenspan said in a speech to the Securities Industry Association. He cited such hopeful signs as the need of businesses to replace inventories, which have dropped to extremely low levels, given the strong buying spree consumers went on during the third quarter.

[atreides1]

1. He's Right

Look at all the jobs being created in India, China, and other countries, other then the US.

[Skidmore]

2. Greenspan signals his buddies--

"if you want to stay in power, start hiring--I can't bottom out interest rates to make money anymore".

[Fovea]

7. Yeah

Should read-- Greenspan issues warning that without a massive hiring boom in the next quarter, the economy is going to nosedive in May.

He is all out of rope, and there is a still a long way to fall.

[Flying_Pig]

3. Yadda, yadda, yadda. He's been spouting the same shit for months.

He's been saying the economy is "poised for a rebound" for the last two years. Horseshit. He's a Bush butt-licker, and will say anything to support Chimp's "re-election" (sic) efforts. Sorry Alan, you old, toothless whore, we no longer buy what you're selling.

[haele]

4. Excuse me while I clean off my monitor...

Economy poised for creating jobs?
Let's look at history to see what sorts of jobs there are to be created - specifically, the era of the 1920's.

Then, as now, you have most employers who were not associated with one of the great monopolies living on credit and bottom lines. You had a few large monopolies based on financing rather than actual production controlling the market place.
You also had barely trained with minimal english competancy immigrants or displaced rural general workers flooding the job markets and making lower wages than average urban and factory workers for a chance at a daily square meal for their families and a roof over their heads. The majority of those workers searching for employment were not actually poor to begin with, most had run into bad luck or a sudden downturn in income, either as immigrants who spent most of their money to get to what they considered to be a better way of life, or farmers/general handymen who had lost work due to drought, or post-WWI belt tightening when "the boys" came home to a changed local economy.
Nowdays, you have outsourcing, low wages for the lower and middle ends of skilled labor, an increase in temporary and contract employment due to a flooded job market and changes in financial thinking of the status of a workforce by companies, and a reduction in amount of well-paying service jobs for "outsourcing" to remain competitive. A large number of formerly comfortable middle managers and skilled labor are now finding themselves in fields where the chances for upward mobility are extremely limited.
As all the employers in my field of experiance tell me, there's only so many supervisory positions around after you've done your apprenticeship and worked your way up to a senior labor catagory. Once you get up as high as you can with "hard work" - further success depends on your ability to suck it up and compromise.

Then, as now, there's also a losening of regulations that benefit larger businesses; protections for small and mid-sized businesses and community-based employment and benefits that protect and level the economic playing field for both those who work and local communities have been eroded due to the "golden rule" - they who have the gold get to enforce the rules.

So, my historical understanding tells me that the "more jobs" that will be created will be in whatever fields are most profitable for whichever monopolies are in power.

I expect a larger amount of low-paying or "commission" type jobs that would normally be set aside for trainees or interns. I expect those jobs to have minimum benefits, if at all, and to be "fire at will" in nature.
I expect a lot more short term contract work in jobs that would normally require a support staff that spends most of their time on standby - including jobs that tend to have seasonal loading, such as county firefighting in fire areas, insurance/evacuation support in hurricane/tornado/flood areas, general community security, ambulance and hospital emergancy room service during long holidays...
In fact, I fully expect organizations such as the military and the national guard to expand their drilling reservist programs to cover many of these jobs at a minimal pay scale; one weekend a month, on call for the rest of the year for $150 - $400 a month and benefits -including the standard food, medical, and board for the service member only while in drill or duty status. And since dependants don't come in the GI service ditty bags, no benefits for their families unless they are called up for more than 30 days...

I also expect the only increase in long term jobs with a reasonable living wage in America will be in jobs that support the Military or the nebulous "Homeland Defense"; because those particular jobs require the ability to hold a security clearance or be supporting a particularly sensitive project. This is because those jobs require a certain amount of employee stability.

So, in my estimation, we can probably look at an increase overall of about half a million permenant jobs, with perhaps another million contract or commission jobs.
That's not counting the perhaps 3 million estimated downsized jobs that have lost wages and benefits for workers struggling to remain employed and will take anything...

How many people have been layed off due to "consolidation", outsourced out of a job, or or otherwise downgraded to temporary/on-call work status that require them to suppliment their living expenses with other jobs and government aid over the past three years, hmmm?
How many workers are now skirting with disability and poor health due to increased work loads and the un-natural physical stresses of taking over the jobs - most of the time without an increase of pay or benefits - of a decimated local workforce?

I doubt the "job increases" Greenspan "sees" will allow the majority of them to regain anything close to the standard of living they had five or six years ago.


Haele

[area51]

10. haele mentioned ...

... "I expect those jobs to have minimum benefits, if at all, and to be 'fire at will' in nature...."

Heh, try living in a "right to fire" state such as Texas. Right to fire states are a republinazi's wetdream.

[JackDragna]

5. Hey, we're getting increases in jobs!

At least, the jobs that ask you to wear a paper hat.

[mhr]

6. Hmm, Shamespan Must Not Read The News, October Layoffs Surge 125%

A short snippet from CBS news indicates that US job losses continue.

------
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=37929.4167939815-809414361&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

10:00am 11/04/03

U.S. October layoffs surge 125%, Challenger says By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Layoff announcements from U.S. companies more
than doubled in October to 171,874, the highest in a year, according to
the monthly tally released Tuesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray
& Christmas. October is typically the largest month for layoff notices,
as companies slash costs at the end of the fiscal year. The Challenger
survey is not adjusted for seasonal factors. Layoff announcements had
fallen for three months in a row before October's 125 percent increase.
In October, the auto industry sacked 28,363 workers, followed by 21,169
in the retail sector. Telecommunications companies cut 21,030. So far in
2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced.

[Gin]

8. He didn't mention which economy.

gin

[Tempest]

Does anyone really listen to him anymore?

I mean, his credibility is completely shot to hell.

[Yavin4]

9. Never Before Has A Fed Chairman Done More For A President

than Greenspan has done for Bush.

[ferg]

11. absolutely -- borrow and spend

It wouldn't be surprised is jobs do get better.

With the massive tax giveaway and Greenspan's ultra-low interest rates, letting everyone borrow lots of money cheaply, it would be surprising if the economy didn't improve.

You can make the economy hum by borrowing tons of money, just as long as you don't care about the effects 5-10 years later.

[Yavin4]

12. When We Have Pay Federal IncomeTax Rates of 45%

with almost all of that going to pay off the debt, Greenspan will be long gone, and his cult of Greenspan worshippers, which includes a lot of DUers, will be sorely disillusioned that their father-like hero was nothing more than a cheap pimp for the Republicans.

All that we're doing is borrowing from the future to make the current day's economy look good, but there's one huge problem. Wages will be decline dramatically across the board for all laborers because of globalization. We're borrowing from a zero, or negative, growth future. To put it simply, we're borrowing to buy a $500,000 house, but the only job that we'll have five years from now will be a minimum wage job in retail.

[joeunderdog]

13. "government spending should be cut ..."

"...to deal with the deficit rather than raising taxes."

So maybe the Chimp should reconsider the $87-fucken-Billion tab to pay for his fruitless mess over in Iraq.

Instead what will happen is that we will continue to "starve the left" and cut social programs.

And this will lead to layoffs. And we all know that in BushSpeak...

LAYOFFS=JOB-CREATION