Conservatives Remain In Lead (Canada, but only 5 points)

[daleo]

Results of CPAC-SES tracking show the Conservatives continue to maintain a lead over the Liberals. Nationally, support for the Conservatives stands at 36.9%, followed by the Liberals at 31.5%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 10%, and the Green Party at 4%. On the Best Prime Minister front, Stephen Harper leads Paul Martin by three points.

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&template_id=46&lang=e

[samhsarah]

1. Please Canada, DON'T DO THIS!!!!!

It's only 5 points, it's not too late.

[stepnw1f]

2. I Just Don't Get It

Is FOX News up there?

[daleo]

4. Our media can be almost as bad as FOX.

The polls being shown in some other media are much, much different. The Globe and Mail today claimed the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals 42-24 (or 26, can't recall). So, this is actually the closest poll. Furthermore, it is a nightly tracking poll which has been tightening up over the last week. The Conservatives have come down from a high of 40 about a week ago to 37, and the Liberals have went from about 29 to about 32. So, the gap has narrowed from about 10 points to about 5.

Personally, I think it will continue to narrow to dead heat territory by election day. Time will tell, I guess.

[Bill McBlueState]

3. if that's how it turns out

If that's how it turns out, does any governing coalition by necessity involve the cons? If they were so inclined, could the Liberals, the NDP, and one of the other parties form a coalition that would have a majority?

[daleo]

5. It is really hard to project seats from popular vote

When things are close. For example, some of the Conservative vote is "wasted" in Alberta (they get all or most seats there). Quebec is hard to project since the Bloc Quebec takes a lot of non-Montreal seats lately, meaning that some of the Conservative popular vote may not be meaningful there. The same is true for the Liberals in the Toronto area - they win some seats handily, so that just pads their vote with no additional seats.

With these results almost anything is possible come election day and afterward. Don't put much stock in news stories until then. Like the U.S., the media here is trying for a Conservative bandwagon effect with some of their polling.

This outfit polls for the Parliamentary Channel, which is mostly watched by political junkies, so I trust them more than the others.

[Village Idiot]

6. Polls in Canada vary quite widely and are not a good indication...

of what's going on.

I keep reading about how much Harper has gained in Quebec at Liberal expense (nearly 17% increase), but I will believe it when I see it.

If the CPC gets in, it will be with a narrow minority mandate. They will need help from BOTH the Bloc Quebecios and the NDP to govern AT ALL, let alone effectively.

The CPC are not completely evil, either. I LIKE the idea of an elected Senate, of the Provinces having more control of health care costs, cutting the GST by 2%, refurbishing the military, etc.

I don't mind having to pay my taxes to do this...it is, after all, why I pay my taxes.

Still, they will NOT get support from the Left-leaning parties on the more radical elements of their agenda - like outlawing same sex marriage, tax cuts for the rich, etc.

I wouldn't vote for the CPC, but after 13 years of Lieberal corruption and mismanagement, I'd sure as SHIT vote for anyone else!!!

[yvr girl]

12. I almost want a Conservative Minority government

I think the Liberals need to be booted out of office. It troubles me that we have virtually turned into a one-party state. The fact that they could lose an election is the only thing that keeps corruption in-check. The Liberals haven't had a truly viable opponent in years.

My Liberal MP in an idiot. The NDP candidate is an attention whore. I like what I've read about my Conservative candidate, but Harper is a tough pill to swallow.

I have no idea who I'm voting for.

[arikara]

19. I voted in the advanced polls

... for the NDP. I would have voted for the Canadian Action Party because I really like them, but NDP has a real chance to take the seat and I can live with them more than the neocons or the Liberals. I would rather jump off a bridge than vote for Harper. Do you know that he's using the same campaign manager as who got John Howard into Australia?

The MSM would like us to believe that its inevitable that the neo-cons win but its not. The alternatives are reporting differently.

http://tinyurl.com/9o45y

The Globe and Mail has shifted to victory mode this week, with columnist after columnist smugly asserting that the Conservatives are coasting to victory. The only question left is whether the party will reach the magic threshold of 40- 45 per cent to win a majority of the seats. The Globe's polling firm, Strategic Counsel, claims that the Conservatives still have room to expand their support, particularly in Quebec and urban Ontario. The sky's the limit, it would appear.

But if one takes a critical look at Strategic's polling methods, and compares them to polls prepared by other firms, things don't look as if they're in the bag yet for the Conservatives.

<more>

[Darth_Kitten]

20. The Conservatives have peaked....

37-38 if the polls can be believed. (laughs)

[applegrove]

7. Yeah & releasing exit polls is very illegal. Gag Law just reconfirmed.

[daleo]

8. I don't get your meaning

This is just a nightly tracking poll. Do you mean releasing exit polls on election day in the east to sway the vote in B.C.? Because that does seem like it could influence things this time around.

[applegrove]

13. Yes. That is what I mean by Exit polls. Yes. The reason there are

gag rules in the first place is so that electors will not be affected on that day. Not just BC. Canada has more time zones than the USA. Two more time zones in fact. Atlantic & Newfoundland.

[daleo]

15. Thanks, I figured that was it. n/t

[wakeme2008]

9. Don't you just hate AP headlines

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Canada-Election.html?pagewanted=print

anuary 18, 2006
Conservatives Surging in Canadian Polls
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 3:44 p.m. ET

TORONTO (AP) -- The Conservative Party, which supports policies similar to the Bush administration's, appeared unstoppable Wednesday as it surged in the polls only five days before Canadians elect a new government.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper was now setting his sights on two traditional Liberal strongholds -- Ontario and Quebec -- where he addressed supporters chanting one of the campaign's central themes: ''A time for change.''

..more BS at link

[daleo]

10. This is why I posted the CPAC poll

The rest seem heavily torqued to me, in the manner you are implying. They are trying to turn a squeaker into a landslide by pure force of propaganda.

[AX10]

11. Hopefully, Canadians will see the light and not let...

Steven Bin Harper in the back door.

[Spazito]

14. This is the reason the faux Cons did NOT want to 'surge' in the polls

until the last week. They never did really surge, imo, but did gain and their fear was peaking too early which is what seems to have happened. Once Canadians start paying serious attention to the election which has happened only recently, after the holiday season and the faux Cons become the target as the leader, Canadians' concerns about the faux Cons comes back to the forefront and that is NOT good news for them. They wanted to sneak in under the radar, as it were, and that didn't happen, thank goodness.

It will still be very close, too close to call other than we will have a minority government, imo, after the vote on the 23rd.

My riding, for example, is looking like a loss for the faux Cons and a gain for the NDP, due, partly, to the faux Con candidate being charged with smuggling, tax evasion, etc. The Liberals were never in contention here so it isn't even a potential gain/loss for them.

All in all, election night will NOT be boring, that's for sure!

[AX10]

16. Something has to be done about your media.

It is too much like our so called "media" here in the states.

Also, what's this all about?

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1137582110105&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home

[NEOBuckeye]

17. Support these guys:

www.iwtnews.com

[Spazito]

21. I hadn't read that, thanks for the link!

Martin seems to be 'gun-shy' even when he should just say Hargrove speaks for Hargrove and those he represents and is simply voicing his concerns as he sees them, they are not my words, they are Mr. Hargrove's words.

Martin is a piss-poor campaigner, imo, and responding to this 'issue' as he did just re-enforces my belief that Martin is doing the Libs no favours.

[ConcernedCanuk]

18. It doesn't matter really - it will be a minority government

.
.
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I'm voting NDP - as are close to 20% of Canuks - and another 10% or more are voting Block Quebecois

Even if Harper manages to get in - he'll be curtailed by the Liberals and the NDP and the BQ power-wise - so he'll have to watch his step

Any tendency to support the US War Machine agenda will get him booted out quicker than you can say "whaddafuckhappened??"

He wouldn't be the "chimp in chief" up here like the pResident of the USA is -

It will be an interesting year for us Canuks no matter

- but not a deadly one like is soon to happen south of our border

- y'all can't just run around the world killing people without expecting a backlash

Just My Canuk Opinion anyhoo . . . .