STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY NOV 7....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday November 7, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 444
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 354
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 329 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 22 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 229
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 713
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 6, 2003

Dow... 9,856.97 +36.14 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq... 1,976.37 +17.00 (+0.87%)
S&P 500.... 1,058.05 +6.24 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.42% +0.07 (+1.56%)
Gold future... 380.70 -2.00 (-0.52%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. Good morning Marketeers! Sorry I could not be here yesterday.

Mrs. Ozy and I spent ten hours in the emergency room with what we think was food poisoning. Very ugly stuff. Anyway, we feel somewhat human this morning.

I will not be around much today as my in-laws have flown into town.

[Maeve]

4. Welcome back, ozy!

Sorry to hear what a miserable day you had! TGIF (:hi: to the in-laws! My MIL is flying up tomorrow, but she won't be here as much as with her siblings)

BTW, in the layoffs for October report--y'all remember at the end of September there were layoffs announced that weren't added to that month's total from Ford and (I think it was)GM? Looks like they caught up with the bean-counters for that "surprising" jump.

Also, the spin has begun--California grocery strikers are being replaced with temps, so that might influence the employment figures. (See here:http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/06/news/economy/jobs_walkup/index.htm">hiring of replacements for striking California grocery workers will add about 40,000 jobs) However, the rotation of 47,000 new reservists and National Guard to Iraq will open up MORE temp jobs.

[ozymandius]

5. Thanks Maeve

My best to you MIL.

Doesn't it seem too elementary that Reserves would be sent before much of the regulars because that is a way to skew the job market to wartime's favor? If I were a corrupt politician intent on making war look like prosperity, I would empty as many jobs as possible so as to make the unemployment figures fall in my favor.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"Reflections and Practical Applications of Dow Theory"

The Dow Theory is the oldest and the most well know technical theory used for determining and investing with the long-term trend of the stock market. But many stock market experts believe that the Dow Theory is no longer relevant. They back up their belief with its underperformance versus other methods over the last 10-plus years. I think that the concept of “confirmation”, which is the basis for the Dow Theory is still sound; although strict interpretation of the Dow Theory applied only to the Industrial and Transport sectors may no longer be relevant in today’s economy. This is because of the overall shift of the US from an industrial to a service economy. In this article, I present a brief description of the Dow Theory, and provide two practical applications of Dow Theory principles applied in an alternate, yet practical way.

Today's Market

There was a “hat-trick” of positive news today that would have frightened market bears:

Nice talk out of Cisco Systems, a company that had a year-over-year (y-o-y) sales growth rate of 6%, which is 1.5% less than the reported growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

The usual infusion of positive economic data from the government (weekly jobless and productivity).

Mid-day happy chirping from Alan Greenspan.

<cut>
With all of this good news, what did the stock market do? The Dow was up 0.37%, the S&P 500 was up 0.59%, and the NASDAQ was up 0.87%. Trading was heavy all week and today was no exception.

Wait a minute! May be I am wrong. May be this is sustainable. May be we can continuously refinance continuously rapid-appreciating houses to sustain growing levels of consumption.

May be we can continuously buy and sell overpriced and rising technology shares to each other for a very long time to come. It worked in 1999 and 2000… Didn’t it?

There will be more positive economic data tomorrow. Have a great evening!

[ozymandius]

3. Putnam Investors Pull $4B Since Charges

NEW YORK - Mutual-Fund investors, like big institutions, are bailing out of Putnam, Friday's Wall Street Journal reported.

Investors withdrew $4.4 billion from mutual funds managed by Putnam Investments in the week ended Wednesday, even as they generally pumped money into stock and bond funds at other companies, according to calculations by AMG Data Services of Arcata, Calif. This is the first full week of such data since the Securities and Exchange Commission and Massachusetts regulators filed civil securities-fraud charges against Putnam on October 28 .

The withdrawals from Putnam funds are above and beyond the more than $4 billion that has been pulled from the Boston money manager by institutional investors, including state pension plans in Vermont, Rhode Island, Iowa and Pennsylvania. Such institutional portfolios are typically managed separately and not invested in mutual funds.
<cut>
A Putnam spokeswoman declined comment on the past week's redemption activity and said it is generally company policy to not discuss flows. Putnam has denied wrongdoing. The company is the fifth-largest fund complex by assets, with a total of $272 billion in mutual funds and other assets under management.

story

[SpiralHawk]

17. Buh-bye Putnammeister Co.

your hour of Karma having come round at last

slouching toward whatever.

[ozymandius]

6. US investors hold their breath ahead of jobs data

US markets look set to follow European markets and open higher on Friday but all will depend on the monthly employment figure due out before the start of trade.

The broader market has drifted this week as investors have been reluctant to take new positions ahead of the crucial monthly non-farm payrolls report.

But expectations of a second successive month of gains for the payrolls figure has been building all week on the back of other encouraging data.

story

[Maeve]

7. Unemployment drops to 6%

8:29a
Government says 126,000 jobs created in October. Details coming.
http://money.cnn.com/

Which is a fraction of what we need to make up for the 3 MILLION lost since Dubya took office, but at least a start in the right direction.

On edit:http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/07/news/economy/jobs/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. payrolls grew in October for the second straight month, the government said Friday, trouncing Wall Street expectations, as the labor market accelerated its recovery from its longest slump since World War II.

Unemployment fell to 6 percent from 6.1 percent in September, the Labor Department reported, while payrolls outside the farm sector rose by 126,000 jobs after rising a revised 125,000 in September.

[UpInArms]

8. here's a "cut and paste" on those jobs

before it changes before our eyes again

Nov 07 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
(Actual) 126K
(Yahoo Briefing expected) 70K
(market anticipated) 65K
(Last Week) 125K
(Revised from) 57K

[Spazito]

14. How many of those 126,000 jobs are the "outsourced" ones?

It seems to me that as long as it is a US company reporting, they can report jobs created even though they were in India, etc. Does anyone know whether the # of jobs reported are limited to domestic jobs only?

[doppledang]

24. Not outsourced

No, you cannot report outsourced jobs as U.S. employment.

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

Last trade 93.82 Change -0.07 (-0.07%)

Sorry to hear about your bout with food poisoning, Ozy - glad to have you back!

So it looks like they have made an entire career of jiggling the jobs numbers - wonder what is behind that curtain of disinformation....

[JNelson6563]

10. Good morning all!

Sorry to hear of your illness Ozy! Glad your are feeling better.

So we have MIRACULOUS job #s!! Whoo-hoo!! I would sure like to know how they pulled that off. Futures look great but what a blood-letting in Treasuries!! Ouch!!

Pete Stark on CNBC kickin' Bushie-butt. :-)

Will check in later, actually slept in today! No school, no alarms, cold and windy out. No wonder I slept so late!

Julie

[Coventina]

11. Stopping in to say hi!

I apologize for dropping out of sight.

My life has been spinning out of control lately, and I just haven't had time in the mornings to do readings and post them. I sometimes can check into DU later in the afternoons, but mornings have really fallen appart for me lately.

I *hope* to have things back to normal by mid-December. But I'll continue to stop in and say hi to all my friends here in the Stock Thread.

Sorry to hear you were ill, Ozy. Food poisoning is no laughing matter! Glad you are feeling better!

:loveya: all!
:hi:

[Maeve]

12. Hang in there!

And congrats again on hitting the 1000+ mark!

[JNelson6563]

15. I've wondered!!

Glad to see you dear!! Hang in there, things will work out, they always do someway or other!

Thanks for stopping in to say hi. Look forward to seeing you more regularly soon.

Sending good vibes your way--:hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

13. And stampeding out of the gate...

Dow 9,899.05 +42.08 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,990.97 +14.60 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,061.74 +3.69 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.475% +0.057

The economy is SO good...and the sales are SO big...I'll catch y'all later! :hi:

[UpInArms]

16. looks like the market

"factored in" the good news in advance once again...


Dow 9,876.60 +19.63 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,985.74 +9.37 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,059.48 +1.43 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.474% +0.056

[UpInArms]

20. update on markets and dollar

something's up with the numbers today - market not responding to "good news" and dollar tumbling back down

Dow 9,872.46 +15.49 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,986.54 +10.17 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,059.36 +1.30 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.472% +0.054

dollar index

Last trade 93.47 Change -0.42 (-0.45%)

[UpInArms]

18. US wholesale inventories climb in September

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/11/07/rtr1139929.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories jumped unexpectedly in September as stocks of nondurable goods such as petroleum and groceries mounted, the government said on Friday.

Sales also rose, boosted by demand for lumber and computer equipment, the Commerce Department said.

Wholesale stocks climbed 0.4 percent in the month after a revised 0.1 percent drop in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts were expecting inventories to climb 0.1 percent.

It was the sharpest rate of increase for inventories since March.

...more...

I might add that on the lumber and computer demand - didn't most of that go to Iraq? Shouldn't that be considered "military spending"?

[JNelson6563]

19. Aren't we the wet blanket today??

Bothersome facts like that serve no constructive purpose when your trying to throw an economic orgy UIA! ;-)

Saw the "factored in" comments on TV too. hahahahaha!!!! Yes, totally unexpected, better than we ever imaginged #s are already factored in. <snarf>

11:00


Dow 9,873.05 +16.08 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,986.43 +10.06 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,059.33 +1.27 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.474% +0.056

What a yawner! One would think we'd be seein' curbs by now. Hmmm.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

21. UpInArms is so right

Something is up and it ain't the markets. With all this incredible news one can only go "Whaaaaaaaa????"

I think they've just gotten way to bold with their number-manipulation program. Perhaps movers and shakers on the Street agree?

11:24


Dow 9,867.71 +10.74 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,983.61 +7.24 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,058.77 +0.71 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% +0.052


Julie

[Don_G]

22. Could It Be This?

The SEC Chairman reported that 25 to 30% of the Mutual Fund brokers enabled late trading?

AP Breaking: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGANQUDFQMD.html

[JNelson6563]

23. Bet that plays into it

as well as maybe a bit of skepticism re: Absolutely fab #s and the Mess-'o'Potamia nightmare.

How will the cheerleading whores spin this lackluster reaction?

Julie

[JNelson6563]

25. Holy Cannolli Johnny!!

This is not going according to plan at all!!

12:46

Dow 9,841.05 -15.92 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,979.35 +2.98 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,056.12 -1.93 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.042

Julie

[wetbandit2003]

I knew this would happen

The market would be volatle today....
I think investors are mainly holding on to their portfolios , but cashing out some portion just for liquidation purposes. we will see mostly sideways movement today across the board.

[Don_G]

26. Lay To Comply With SEC Supoena

Wonder if it has anything to do with Fastow's wife plea bargaining for a reduced sentance?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=205814

[mrsteve]

27. 1:20 - oscillating in a controlled window

Hello all! Sorry to hear that Ozy and Coventina are having life disruptions - hope all gets better quickly. At least my interruptions only seem to last about a day. Salutes to all who keep things going on the old Stock Thread, even when the going gets rough.

Markets are all in the black, even as they move back and forth in a .3 - .4% range.

Dow 9,865.42 +8.45 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,986.13 +9.76 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,058.53 +0.48 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454% +0.036

[mrsteve]

28. 2:00 - Dow and S&P slip below water, Nasdaq up

Still sideways within pretty much the same window as before.

Dow 9,855.34 -1.63 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,985.42 +9.05 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,057.82 -0.23 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.456% +0.038

[mrsteve]

29. 2:30 - still oscillating, going nowhere fast

Sideways within ranges still.

Dow 9,847.57 -9.40 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,984.11 +7.74 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,057.17 -0.89 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.452% +0.034

Even Yahoo Fi is bored:
"2:25PM: Not the must inspiring day of trading as the market has shown little vigor... Valuation concerns have been the primary reason behind the indices' sluggish trade... Industry leadership has been minimal, with the only influential sector showing gains of greater than 1% being the semiconductor group... Elsewhere, the dollar has surrendered its gains against the euro and yen owing to the US equity market's inability to move higher off the strong October employment report, and news that eleven Washington DC post offices have been closed to be tested for anthrax...
Such a decision has stirred up talk that the US Homeland Security office could raise the terror alert level..."

Uh oh, here it comes, all terra, all day. Yeesh!

[JNelson6563]

30. Hey there Steve

Happy Friday to ya!

Well the markets don't seem to be gobbling up the fab news as ws likely expected. All that manipulation for nothing! On top of that the media has actually covered the helicopter crash and now the embassy closing in SA. Things look grim for Jr.

Hey, did you happen to catch Rep Pete Stark on CNBC today?? haha Made my day!

2:55


Dow 9,846.31 -10.66 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,983.63 +7.26 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,057.29 -0.76 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.449% +0.031


Julie

[UpInArms]

31. am not certain that this makes a difference

but the Consumer Credit report was just released and here is what it shows:

Consumer credit is broken down into three categories: auto, revolving (ie, credit card), and other. Since we already have indications on total consumer spending well before this release, there is little to be gained from learning what portion of spending was financed through acquisition of debt. Periods of strong spending can be accompanied by relatively weak credit growth and vice versa, so this measure fails even as a coincident or lagging indicator.

Nov 07 3:00 PM
Consumer Credit Sep
(reported) $15.1B
(Yahoo Briefing est) $10.0B
(market anticipated) $5.3B
(last month) $8.8B
(revised from) $8.2B

and here is the current market and dollar report

3:09 pm

Dow 9,845.05 -11.92 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,983.06 +6.69 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,057.11 -0.94 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.452% +0.034

dollar index

Last trade 93.03 Change -0.86 (-0.92%)

[mrsteve]

32. Nope, no cable here in cubicle land -

But a couple of quick looks at Google news indicates he is trying to hold the Repub's feet in fire about employment.

AP News Story

"They're pointing to the drop in the jobless rate and the creation of an unexpectedly large number of jobs as proof the administration's policies are getting the economy back on track.

Georgia Congressman Jack Kingston says "tax cuts work." The chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, Senator Robert Bennett, calls the report further proof the economy is returning to "a period of strong growth."

While the top Democrat on that committee acknowledged the good news, Congressman Pete Stark also pointed out that 14 (m) million people are still looking for work.
And he stressed the jobs being created aren't the skilled, high-paying jobs that have been lost over the past few years."


Good for him. The republican are going to push for more $@&$%@##! tax cuts next year, and we gotta stop'em somehow. Letting people think that the tax cuts and not normal business cycles are the cause of the recovery will just kill us later.

[mrsteve]

33. 3:35 - is anyone awake out there?

Dow is down a little bit, but for the most part little action either up or down.

Dow 9,842.01 -14.96 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,980.73 +4.36 (+0.22%) ]
S&P 500 1,056.63 -1.42 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.450% +0.032

Yahoo Finance Update:
"3:25PM: It's been a pretty listless day of trading as the indices have run up against a wall - that being, the top of their recent trading ranges... Such a position has led to a fairly cautious session of trade, with investors unwilling to make changes to their positions at these levels... The October employment report, arguably, has prevented profit-taking on a large-scale as evidence of the strengthening economy has signaled that the stock market will continue to run over the intermediate-term... Separately, the September Consumer Credit report was released at the top of the hour to little fanfare...
Consumer credit surged $15.1 bln higher (consensus of $5.30 bln) due to the tremendous pace of August auto sales..."

[JNelson6563]

34. Someone woke the bears

3:43 the bears roar!!!


Dow 9,811.35 -45.62 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,973.93 -2.44 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,053.38 -4.67 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.450% +0.032


Steve you shoulda seen Stark this AM!! He called Jr an "idiot" a "fascist" and "Bush the lessor". They asked about the wonderful work we've done in Iraq re: Democracy. Shoulda seen 'im! He says "What is Ashcroft gonna go teach 'em about civil liberties? Chao about building a labor force??" It was rich!! One of the cheerleader whores said they took exception to what he said and he says "Go ahead! Take exception!" They asked about the "economic recovery" and he waves 'em away with a "You're dreamin'!!" Oh it was a thing of beauty to behold. I called his office today to applaud him. He spoke for me perfectly.

We near the end of today's misadventure. A most interesting day IMO.

Julie

[mrsteve]

35. Wow- looks like I missed a good one.

But if you look at my clipping (hell, do a Google news search on Stark and that's all you'll see) it said nothing to that effect.

Good ol' librul media for you.

Applause to Stark for speaking truth to power! Wish I could have seen it.

Looks like someone better wake up the PPT, though. The markets are raining on the boy king's parade.

[mrsteve]

36. Close of day - down and a little out

Small rise at the very end, but not nearly enough. Stocks are still in the red.

Dow 9,809.79 -47.18 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,970.74 -5.63 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,053.21 -4.85 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.450% +0.032


See Everyone on Monday. Hope everyone can make it, including Ozy and Coventina. Hang in there! :hi: :grouphug: