Press Release Source: Newsweek
NEWSWEEK POLL: The Economy and Iraq
Saturday November 8, 1:17 pm ET
Fifty Percent Would Not Re-Elect Bush; 48 Percent Disapprove Of Bush's Handling Of Economy, But 44 Percent Approve, A 6-Point Jump From One Month Ago
Fifty-One Percent Disapprove Of Bush's Handling Of Iraq, A Record High; Three-Quarters (75%) Are Concerned (45% Very Concerned) U.S. Will Be Bogged Down For Years
In Trial Heats, All Leading Dems Now Even With Bush In Head-To-Head Matchups
NEW YORK, Nov. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Fifty percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see President George W. Bush re-elected to another term, and 44 percent say they would, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. In the past month, those who supported Bush's re-election and those who didn't were statistically tied in the Newsweek Polls.
Bush's lead over the Democratic contenders in test match-ups has also decreased. In the latest Newsweek Poll, Bush and Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark are in a statistical dead heat: 45 percent of registered voters say they'd vote for Clark or lean toward voting for Clark, compared to 48 percent who'd vote for Bush or lean toward Bush. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry both get 45 percent of the vote compared to 49 percent for Bush in each match-up. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman trails Bush 44 percent v. 48 percent and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt loses to Bush 44 percent to 49 percent, the only leading Democrat to lose by more than the margin of error, the poll shows.
This week, there was good news about the economy and jobs, yet 48 percent of those polled say they disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy. However, 44 percent approve, the current poll shows, a 6-point jump since the October 9-10 Newsweek Poll, when only 38 percent of Americans approved of Bush's handling of the economy. When asked about the overall state of the economy, 43 percent of Americans polled say it's in fair shape, 33 percent say it's in poor shape; just 23 percent say it's in good shape. Americans are divided about the prospects for the future. Over the next 12 months, 41 percent of those polled say the economic conditions will get better; 39 percent say they'll stay the same; only 16 percent say they'll get worse. They're also divided over whether changing presidents would make a difference: 43 percent say a Democratic president would handle the economic conditions better than President Bush; 42 percent that wouldn't be the case.
Looking at their personal financial situation, 41 percent of those polled say they are in good shape; 34 percent say fair shape. Only 9 percent say their personal financial condition is excellent and just 15 percent say poor. During the next 12 months, 54 percent expect their situation will stay the same, but 36 percent believe it will get better, the poll shows. Although majorities say they are not worried about things like maintaining mortgage payments (65%), a major wage earner in their household losing a job (60%), or maintaining their current standard of living (54%), 56 percent of respondents are worried about having enough savings for retirement and 53 percent are worried about being able to pay medical or health care costs, the poll shows.
On the subject of Iraq, just 14 percent of Americans polled say they are very confident that the U.S. will successfully establish a stable democratic form of government there over the long term; 36 percent are somewhat confident, 26 percent are not too confident and 21 percent are not at all confident. And just 10 percent say U.S. efforts to establish security and rebuild Iraq have gone very well; 35 percent say somewhat well, 30 percent say not too well and again, 21 percent say not well at all. A majority of Americans polled (53%) say the U.S. does not have a well-thought-out plan to establish security and a stable government in postwar Iraq (35% believe it does); while 75 percent are at least somewhat concerned (45% very concerned) that the U.S. will be bogged down in Iraq for many years without making much progress in achieving its goals there.
A 60-percent majority, a new record-high, says the amount of money the U.S. is spending for operations in postwar Iraq is too high and 54 percent say the U.S. should reduce the number of military personnel now in Iraq and start to bring the troops home; 23 percent say to keep the same amount. Just 16 percent say the U.S. should send more troops. Americans are not worried about a renewal of the draft; 63 percent of those polled say the U.S. commitment to rebuilding Iraq will not lead to a reinstatement of a military draft in America; 23 percent say it will.
President Bush's job approval rating remained steady at 52 percent, one percentage point up from the previous Newsweek Poll, the same level it's been for the past month. Approval for Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq dropped to 42 percent, from 47 percent in the September 25-26 Newsweek Poll and from a high of 74 percent in April. The disapproval rate was 51 percent, the highest ever recorded in the Newsweek Poll.
Among all Democratic contenders vying for the nomination as the party's presidential candidate, Dean edges Clark with 16 percent of the vote among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners; Clark gets 15 percent, the poll shows. Gephardt follows with 9 percent of the vote; then 8 percent for Lieberman; Kerry and former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Brown each get 7 percent of the vote, then North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 6 percent of the vote. After the drop from Clark to Gephardt, all of the other candidates are separated by from one another by less than the margin of error.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,002 adults aged 18 and older on November 6-7, 2003. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the November 17 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, November 10).
(Read Newsweek's news releases at www.Newsweek.MSNBC.com . Click "Pressroom.")
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