STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY NOV 10....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday November 10, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 441
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 357
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 332 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 23 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 232
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 716
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 7, 2003

Dow... 9,809.79 -47.18 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq... 1,970.74 -5.63 (-0.28%)
S&P 500.... 1,053.21 -4.84 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.45% +0.03 (+0.72% )
Gold future... 383.40 +2.70 (+0.71%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"Lessons From The Past"

As a market historian, it is my belief that if we study the markets of the past, we can gain valuable insight into the future. If you think about it, how can you discern a given market situation if you have never been exposed to it before? So, it’s logical to me that we can gain our experience in one of two ways. We can learn from the school of hard knocks and let unfamiliar situations teach us the hard way or we can learn from history. Now, I also realize that simply studying the past is not exactly the same as first hand experience. However, I would much rather be armed with the lessons of the past than not. Also, if you think about it, our formal education is really nothing more that the study of history. Our professors taught us to be the engineer, doctor, accountant, lawyer, or whatever, largely through the study of history. The engineer learns design structure through the experience of his predecessors. The doctor is taught based on analytical and diagnostic principles that were learned and developed by his predecessors as well. The lawyer studies case law and so forth. If you think about it, a large part of any profession is learned through the study of history. Yet, it seems that most participants in the market make very little if any study of the past.

William Peter Hamilton, 1922 wrote, “The small speculator, and more particularly the small gambler, suffers at the hands of the professional. He is a follower of “tips” and “hunches.” He has made no real study of the things in which he trades. He takes his information without discrimination at second hand, lacking the ability to distinguish good from bad.”

<cut>
Now, I’m not saying that just because I’m a market historian that I have all the answers. What I am saying is that history is our best teacher and in believing that, I have not limited my study of the averages to recent history. I have analyzed the markets from 1896 to present and as a result I feel fairly confident in saying that we are still in the first primary phase of a monster bear market that is not likely to end until 2006 or possibly 2010. The only questions are when will this rally be over and how can investors best position themselves in light of this primary bear market?

more...

[JNelson6563]

6. my money's on the market historian

I'm a regular historian, amatuer of course, and I know the value of history. Every player ont he world stage today has had a pedecessor that, if one is familiar enough, one can make a very good guess at what is to be expected. I see no reason why market historians would be any different.

Very insightful read, I recommend reading the link.

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. U.S. financial statement flawed - reported after Friday's close

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The annual financial statement of the United States government, the broadest outline of the government's bottom line, still has serious accounting weaknesses, according to a congressional watchdog agency.

"The net position reported in the is derived by subtracting liabilities from assets, rather than through balanced accounting entries. In other words, the CFS is 'plugged' to make it balance," the General Accounting Office said in a recent audit of the 2002 statement delivered to Treasury Secretary John Snow and Josh Bolten, director of the Office of Management and Budget.

<cut>
While the government's monthly budget statements look at the government's finances from a cash accounting point of view -- how much cash was brought in compared to how much was spent -- the financial statement is aimed at providing a more complete picture by taking into account expected future liabilities.

story

[JNelson6563]

7. *gasp*

Whaaaaaaaa?????? You mean.....maybe the picture they gave us is fuzzy?? Who woulda ever guessed??? haha

I guess this is as close as we'll ever get to a confession.

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. Oil could pressure Wall Street (rough start today)

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors will be keeping one eye on oil prices and the other on economic and earnings reports due later this week when Wall Street reopens for business Monday.

Stocks fell Friday despite the stronger-than-expected October jobs report, but the major indexes managed to close the week higher.

Oil prices climbed to three-week highs Monday after a weekend bombing in Saudi Arabia heightened fears over the supply of Middle Eastern crude, Reuters reported. December New York crude futures gained 40 cents to $31.25 a barrel while London's benchmark Brent crude rose 49 cents to $29.40 a barrel.

Friday's jobs report, as well as the economy's third quarter growth rate of 7.2 percent, the best in nearly 20 years, have pointed to a pickup in economic growth, and in the job market. The question for investors: are those already baked into the stock market's cake?

story

[DUreader]

9. Funny thing about gasoline prices

AP radio news when I went to bed 7 hrs ago said National Avg./Gallon $1.51

When I got up 2 hours ago, same AP radio news was saying $1.55 / Gallon

Was it News Anchor Error, Typo or more shennanigans?

[JNelson6563]

14. trouble in Saudi Arabia

results in higher crude prices. Prepare for an expensive winter.

Julie

[ozymandius]

4. Worldwide shortage of steel forecast

Soaring demand for steel - including a huge increase in Chinese consumption - means that a global shortage is likely next year, industry experts are warning.

World Steel Dynamics, a US-based consultancy, says there is an 85 per cent chance of a shortage in the first quarter of next year.

Steel prices have been ramping upwards in the past year, together with the outlook for industry profits. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of a group of 35 large global steelmakers studied by WSD are likely, according to the consultancy, to be up 10 per cent this year compared with 2002.

Investors have taken note. The shares of quoted steel companies across the world, relative to the FTSE World index, are up about 40 per cent this year, and by 150 per cent since a low point in late 2000.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning all!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:
I must leave at this point. There's much catchup to do at work. I will check in later if possible.

Have a great day at the Casino! :hi:

[JNelson6563]

8. Good morning Marketeers!

Lots of great stories out there, thanks to Ozy for posting all that news!!

Watching CNBC this morning I see on their crawler that Al Gore made a speech to a liberal audience! Funny, I never see pResident Bush made a speech in front of a hand-picked, very friendly neo-con audience. Interesting they felt compelled to comment on the audience, no?

Listening to the cheerleaders one would think it's nothing but blue skies ahead. Mmm hmmm. Even though everyone's wincing when they look at Crude prices.

So how many indictments will there be today re: the mutual fund fiasco? Rock on Spitzer!!

More later. Happy Monday everybody!

Julie

[TAH6988]

10. Hey

My portfolio is up over 35% this year. There's always money to be made if you don't believe in nothing by gloom and doom.

[JNelson6563]

11. Oh yes, there is money to be made

there is no doubt. I've made some $$ too.

One must be very careful these days though. With all the fake numbers coming out of Washington one must look to their own intuition....

One thing about knowing history is that you know there is always money to be made no matter what hardships may hit a society. For instance, when you bomb the shit out a country, let's say...Iraq, there's gonna be a big run on lumber and other rebuilding materials. When you've got a war-monger chickenhawk-in-chief there's gonna be lots of money in military stocks. On and on the list goes. I for one do not play the stocks where human lives fuel the bottom line. It's just a thing with me....

Most of all, it is unfortunate though that those who thought they were taking the safest of roads (mutual funds) are now faced with horrifying scandals.

Lastly, I see good things in Gold. ;-)

Julie

[TAH6988]

12. People have been seeing good things in gold

for over a year now...seems to me stocks are much better than gold right now.

[JNelson6563]

13. not me

but then again, I am a historian. ;-) (Think Ray-gun years)

Julie-who thinks long term

[TAH6988]

17. So am I

And one can see what one want's out of history...Long term, stocks are still a good bet!

Troy--who understands long term

[JNelson6563]

15. Put down the horns....

TradingMarkets.com
What I Saw Today: Put Down 'The Horns'
Friday November 7, 5:31 pm ET
By Chris Tyler

The running of the bulls hit a barrier in today's trade--the 2000 mark in the Nasdaq Composite. You wouldn't have known it of course, seeing how CNBC was pulling out the proverbial party hats and balloons all session long--in anticipation of this key psychological benchmark. Hmmm, it might just be time to put down those party 'horns' for a bit, as the celebration, much like many other highly anticipated numbers (anyone care for the Dow 10k hoopla) failed to provide the actual favors for all those attending today's celebration. With that said, after the price spike over the 'latest number', the major indices failed to regain their composure (although they did give it the ol' college try intraday), closing at session lows and off between .70% to .89%. No 'yahoo', although the lighter trade will definitely give IBD (I'm sure) the impetus to write something positive about today's price action. Personally speaking, I'd rather bow to a fellow technician's words of something about a market fraught with flyers and plungers.

You've heard it here before, but it bears repeating, 'bulls and bears, but not pigs'--I think you can fill in the rest. In the past week the S&P 500 is only up about .50%, which realistically isn't a whole lot, so the overbought thingy is less qualified--but personally speaking, the cautious bull in me says to 'watch your hide', or should that be 'run and hide.' I agree with Don Worden, the man behind the first-paragraph quote. It's a strange one indeed, and when you don't understand something, my philosophy is to 'steer clear', and stick to what you do know. The one thing that still seems to make perfect sense in my book, is to stick with the consistent, disciplined daytrading that got you to Nasdaq 2000 in the first place.

They did it again--no, not the elusive Market Makers that try to hurt our portfolios. No, the 'they did it again', would be a hats off to the consistent, disciplined daytraders of the world. In an uncertain market, our style or way of life has been an excellent opportunity to trade from both sides of the coin. Shorts, longs, just not piggies--have all been able to take a piece out of the current volatility. How will the coin come up on Monday??? Dunno, but I'll guarantee that it ain't no 50/50 proposition what we'll continue to do each and every day, regardless if we dance with the bear, or end up running with the bull.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/031107/10900_2.html

today's word: caution.

Julie

[UpInArms]

16. daily dollar watch

Good Monday Morning Marketeers!

the dollar shows up but has fallen from last week's highs -

what will this week bring? Probably will hold for the short term - at least until Thursday (jmho)

so here are the numbers:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.17 Change +0.15 (+0.16%)

[JNelson6563]

18. here we go

5 minutes in:


Dow 9,806.83 -2.96 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,969.61 -1.13 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,052.26 -0.95 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.426% -0.024

No telling which way it may go.

Julie

[UpInArms]

19. here's another thing to

look at -

inflation may be seeping back -

http://www.news-leader.com/today/1110-Consumerpr-213131.html

Consumer prices starting to edge up
Business owners are using increases to offset costs of health insurance, materials.

By Barbara Hagenbaugh

Usa Today

Washington — Some business owners are starting to get what they've wanted for years: higher prices.

As consumer and business spending improves, a growing number of firms are raising the prices they charge for their goods and services. According to preliminary data from the National Federation of Independent Business, a net 8 percent of small business owners surveyed in October said they were raising prices, up four percentage points from September and the highest level since June 2001. The net is the number of firms raising prices minus the number cutting.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

20. 10:13 update

Dow 9,785.13 -24.66 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,962.16 -8.58 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,050.16 -3.05 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.430% -0.020

I'm off to prop up the economy. If I don't go grocery shopping there could be a revolt around here. ;-)

Julie

[JNelson6563]

21. high noon--looks grim

Dow 9,763.79 -46.00 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,954.28 -16.46 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,048.69 -4.51 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.426% -0.024

12:04

But what about all those great numbers???? ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

24. "Quiet day on Wall Street" Yahoo calls it

Bear paws make less noise than bull hooves.
Dow 9,768.46 -41.33 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,955.06 -15.68 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,049.02 -4.18 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.438% -0.012

Sorry to be MIA, but our power just came back after three hours off.

[KoKo]

22. This Week's Merriman's Astrological "Market Week" Forecast

Rapid economic growth and increasing federal budget deficits are a recipe for higher interest rates. And higher interest rates are a recipe for an economy that will soon be forced to pull back. And along with that, equity indices will eventually begin to fall. All of this is completely consistent with the historical correlation of the Saturn-Pluto cycle that has been discussed several times in this column over the past couple of years. That is, interest rates decline, equity markets rally sharply, federal deficits turn to surpluses, and the economy grows during most of the 16-20 period of the conjunction to the opposition of Saturn and Pluto. The last time Saturn and Pluto were in conjunction was in 1982. Then, during most the 16-20 year period from the opposition back to the conjunction, the reverse happens. Government surpluses turn into deficits, interest rates rise, equity markets struggle, and the economy turns sideways to down, and in some cases, turns down very sharply (i.e., recessions and even depressions). The opposition of Saturn and Pluto unfolded in 2001-2002. And the next conjunction is not until 2020. The assumption from this cycle is that the 16-20 year period from the conjunction to the opposition is the time to focus on appreciation of one’s capital. It is a good time to be "in the market." However, from the opposition to the conjunction, the focus is better placed upon protection of one’s capital. It is a good time to concentrate on saving money, and not being in the market as an investor, but perhaps more as a shorter-term trader.

Still, Chairman Greenspan also reiterated his wish to keep interest rates low, in spite of the improving economy and deteriorating federal deficit. That could prove troublesome for equity markets, too, for if interest rates are kept low while the economy continues to grow strongly, you get inflation. And this in turn depresses the value of the U.S. dollar, which is already in a bear market for most of the past year. If the dollar continues to lose value—and it will if other countries raise their rates to support their currencies—then there is danger of foreign investors pulling out of the U.S. equity and bond markets. Whatever they might make in gains in U.S. bonds and stocks will be diminished by what they lose ion the currency conversion.

more.........http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

[JNelson6563]

23. these more in depth articles

are laced with reasons for anxiety IMO.

Good article, thanks for posting! :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

25. Hello all - 1:15 numbers

Hope everyone had a good weekend. This week in the casino could get rough, as it looks like the glow from last week's good news is wearing off.

Dow 9,761.72 -48.07 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,953.91 -16.83 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,048.40 -4.81 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.439% -0.011

[mrsteve]

26. Yahoo Finance is blaming it on the techs -

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"1:00PM: The major averages have stabilized near their session lows... The Nasdaq continues to underperform its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis due to the lagging technology sectors... Given the tech composite's 46% year-to-date advance, traders are using today as an opportunity to unload some of their positions and turn paper profits into hard cash... Especially weak is the semiconductor sector, which is down -2.34%, as indicated by the SOX index...
Supporting the market's apprehension is First Albany's call suggesting to trim exposure to the Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment sector going into the year-end mark-up..."

[TrogL]

32. I'm confused (as usual)

I listen to the CBC market report on the drive in and the economist guy said the market was all shiny-happy over good coputer sales causing upward movement with IBM (and Intel as a side effect).

:wtf: happened?

[mrsteve]

38. Sometimes good news does not raise the market

There are usually at least three different takes on why not:

1) The market is not rational - this is a more meta-level view of market behaviors, but studies have proven on a given day that market movements are more random than not. Thus, just because something should be good news that raises the markets doesn't mean that it will have that effect.

2) Market speculation has already expected result X and moved that market (or a stock or stocks) up, and thus when X happens the the markets have already assumed that changes would happen and thus do not rise. Results of the good news has "already been baked in" according to the pundits and the markets stay put or perhaps fall a little. This is also implied by the advice "Buy on rumor, sell on fact" that gets tossed around sometimes.

3) Sometimes the goods news is not good enough. Especially lately, the markets have punished companies or even entire sectors who's results are good, but not as good as expected or hoped.

That's a little bit of info for you why the markets can be conunter-intuitive, especially where good news is concerned.

[UpInArms]

27. Dollar falls 1 pct vs yen

http://www.forbes.com/technology/newswire/2003/11/10/rtr1141904.html

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped 1 percent against the yen on Monday as the Japanese currency extended gains across the board after weekend elections in Japan reinstated Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's ruling Liberal Democratic party to power, but with a reduced majority.

The dollar fell to 108.18 yen <JPY=>, down 1 percent on the day.

...more...

[mrsteve]

28. 1:55 update - still near lows for the day

Dow 9,774.53 -35.26 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,957.05 -13.69 (-0.69%)
S&P 500 1,049.93 -3.27 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.455% +0.005

(on edit - oops, the 10 year is above waterline, better change font color)

[JNelson6563]

29. 2:23 and still red

Dow 9,762.83 -46.96 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,953.74 -17.00 (-0.86%)
S&P 500 1,048.73 -4.47 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.010

So money leaves stocks and Treasuries, hmm? Interesting. Good thing it's all good or I might be concerned. ;-)

Good to see ya Steve! Glad you're up and running again Maeve!

Julie

[mrsteve]

30. Hey Julie

Good to see you also. I had to get my star back today. I guess I've been running around for several weeks naked without it. :scared:

Hope everyone reading the thread gets a chance to donate, also.

[mrsteve]

31. 3:10 - stil moving sideways with only 50 minutes to go

Dow 9,770.24 -39.55 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,952.79 -17.95 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,048.94 -4.27 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.466% +0.016

Wow - that 10 year just keeps rising. Looks like gold took a big jump also.

[JNelson6563]

33. 3:27 smackdown

Dow 9,745.57 -64.22 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,948.05 -22.69 (-1.15%)
S&P 500 1,046.91 -6.30 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.010

Ouch!

Julie

[mrsteve]

34. 15 minutes to go - still falling

Dow 9,741.94 -67.85 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,941.56 -29.18 (-1.48%)
S&P 500 1,045.98 -7.22 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.010

[Maeve]

35. No, don't put it negatively

This is the Land of Happy Talk....look at all the nice profits being taken!

See? Doesn't that sound soooo much better? :P
Dow 9,743.05 -66.74 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,940.72 -30.02 (-1.52%)
S&P 500 1,045.88 -7.33 (-0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.010

[Maeve]

36. Final figures for the day

Dow 9,756.53 -53.26 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,941.64 -29.10 (-1.48%)
S&P 500 1,047.10 -6.10 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460% +0.010

[JNelson6563]

37. just a small welt

not too bad.

Catch you all in the AM! :hi:

Julie

[Media_Lies_Daily]

39. The financial beatings will continue until morale improves...

...so shut-up and buy more stock.

[mrsteve]

40. Ha! I Love it!

If we buy enough stock will * just go away?

Hmmm. Didn't think so.