Alberta, as I recall ... perhaps not the best vantage point for analysing Toronto municipal elections.
There were three main candidates in the late days of the Toronto mayoral election: one Conservative (John Tory ... by name, and Tory by nature), one Liberal (Barbara Hall, former mayor), and one New Democrat (Miller). No one in Toronto would be so naive or disingenuous as to suggest that there was no party politics in the race.
"It was individual and personal."No, it was
political. Once Hall became irrelevant, it was a race between a candidate who made the usual tax/spending-cut, more-police-on-the-street promises, and a candidate who promised to spend money to try to solve problems like Toronto's homelessness situation. It was fundamentally, to the core political.
Certainly there was a well of resentment of the back-room politicking etc. of the Lastman reign, but that could have been tapped by a Liberal just as well as anyone else. In a campaign where there were substantive issues and clearly different agendas, the Liberals were just unable to do their mushy-centre act and persuade the electorate that the Liberal world was the best of all possible worlds.
And given the presence of a strong, real alternative to the right in the Toronto race, the Liberals couldn't soak up the left vote with that fuzzy "liberal" image -- we're good because we're not bad -- as they did in the provincial election for instance.
(A municipal campaign in Canada is the closest we get to a US-style state or federal election: there is a direct vote for mayor, as there is in the US for governor or president. In provincial and federal elections, there is no direct vote for premier or prime minister, and so who wins those offices depends to some extent on local preferences for the local representative.)
Obviously there were local issues in the Toronto election that don't break down neatly into party compartments -- such as the Toronto Island airport issue. But Miller's overall approach is the historical approach of the left in Toronto municipal politics, which goes back to John Sewell and his crowd, and the anti-blockbusting etc. of the 60s.
The NDP is deeply entrenched in Toronto city politics -- as are the two right-wing parties in all municipalities in Ontario, it's just that their activities are not as open and direct and visible to the public. The NDP's entrance into the municipal arena was of course later in most places; the Liberals and Conservatives had simply been there since time immemorial. When Jane Bigelow was elected mayor of London, and Marion Dewar was elected major of Ottawa, there was no doubt in the public mind as to their party affiliation: NDP. When Liberals and Conservatives have been mayor of those cities, there were undoubtedly people who actually believed that their mayors weren't big Libs or big Tories, which is just how those parties wanted things.
The NDP has pulled ahead of the others in Toronto in its ability to focus its efforts and present a consistent and coherent vision to voters. But the party lines are of course not as rigid on Toronto city council as Canadans are used to in provincial and federal politics, in which party standings determine who is premier and prime minister. With a directly elected "executive" (mayor), votes get split, and the mayor may not have a majority or even plurality on council. Here's one
Toronto Star columnist's take:
Before yesterday's vote there were 13 New Democrats on council, plus three or four centre-left sympathizers. Miller and the left-wingers won three seats from the right, but also lost three (counting centre-left veteran Anne Johnston). The rest are mostly moderates, as in the old council. But they are new and younger and many of them are more progressive than the ones who have left.
Miller must govern from the centre, like all his predecessors, or risk a polarized, gridlocked council. He can't be too doctrinaire. And the first evidence will be the people he chooses to lead out in his administration. For example, right-winger David Soknacki (Ward 43 Scarborough East) is pegged as a good budget chief and Miller could signal he takes the city's finances seriously by appointing him.
He will also have to reach out to the right-wingers, but that is not a difficult task. Council's moderates and centre-right members are a numerous but not well-organized. They don't have a natural leader — a role Paul Sutherland would have assumed had he not run and lost in the provincial election. Miller should be able to co-opt them easily, with choice appointments. Most councillors, left or right, tend to gravitate towards power. The power now rests with Miller and so council will tilt to the left. But if he tries to take them too far left, he might be in for a tussle.
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