STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY NOV 13....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 13, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 438
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 335 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 26 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 235
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 719
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 12, 2003

Dow... 9,848.83 +111.04 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq... 1,973.11 +42.36 (+2.19%)
S&P 500.... 1,058.56 +11.99 (+1.15%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.41% -0.05 (-1.08%)
Gold future... 395.00 +6.80 (+1.75%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[leftyandproud]

1. Gold and SILVER are soaring...

I've been reading some articles...I seriously think the dollar is doomed.

500 billion in debt and MASSIVE amount of printed dollars being injected into the system every day...They are devaluing the currency to make it easier to pay off the debt. Cheaper currency = higher prices (inflation) = BAD for consumers

It also equals a higher dollar amount for gold and silver...which tend to hold their value regardless of currency fluctuations. There may also be a reason to invest in silver on basic supply/demand fundamentals.

...at least thats the read I'm getting from my recent research on economics...and how badly bush is screwing us...

[ozymandius]

7. The evidence is weighty.

On a recent rare occasion when I watched TV - the gold and silver salesmen were hocking their wares shamelessly. Imagine the guy in a nice suit with a posh British accent telling you that gold is going higher than $1000/ounce. Despite the smarmy snake oil showmanship - there rings some truth to the sales pitch. There is a renewed attraction to precious metals not seen in many years. The reasons why, I believe, can be patly stated in that wheels are about to come off something.

[ozymandius]

2. ~ SPECIAL EDITION WRAPUP ~ "To the moon, Alice."

Fundamental Review
by Jim Puplava

As an investment, it isn’t on anyone’s radar screen, at least not on the screens of the general public. Yet in the last three years, the price of the yellow metal has risen 54% from its nadir of $255.55 on April 2, 2001 to today’s 7-year high of $394.45. The last time we saw gold prices this high was back in May of 1996. The movement in the price of the metal is nothing compared to what has happened to the price of gold shares. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has soared by an incredible 440% since January of 2001. The index is up 82% over the last 52 weeks and has surpassed even the gains in the NASDAQ this year. The HUI is up 53% this year compared to 47% for the NASDAQ.

What's The REAL Reason?

There is something going on here and it is more than just the price of the dollar. Demand for commodities has been rising each year and most commodities are running a supply deficit. The real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices is demand. The other driver is the value of the dollar.

What's So Strange?

Several friends of mine have expressed the same sense of strangeness whenever the topic of investing comes up and I talk about commodities--whether it is gold, energy, or the price of soybeans. They simply don’t understand it. When I explain the returns of 400-1,000 percent from precious metal equities these last three years, they look at me like there is something wrong. I tell them about the demand and supply fundamentals and how you want to buy when things are out of favor and the price is low. It still doesn’t make sense to them until I start talking about what they now have to pay for gasoline, their groceries each week, or their monthly utility bill. It then starts to make sense because they can relate and lament at what has happened to their cost of living each month. They have trouble when it comes to gold and silver. I try to explain to them that the inflation that they are now experiencing is all related to Fed inflation polices. The Fed is printing more money than has ever been printed before in all of history. The reason prices are rising for most things they need to buy each month is that the value of the dollar is depreciating.

The reader should ponder and arrive at your own conclusion. Which one of the charts reflects a new bull market and which one represents a bear market that is just in its formative stage? As for my own views, I believe we are just in the formative stage of what will become the greatest bull market for metals in all of history. It's to the moon, Alice, and maybe beyond.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[TrogL]

39. My daily "I am so confused" post

So does the US want foreigners buying greenbacks in the hopes of driving up the price, or are they admitting they're decreasing in value as they run the presses overnight and just thankful for any foreign currency that crosses the table?

What about all the currencies that are pegged to the greenback?

What I'm most worried about is the loonie. The CBC (of course) keeps trumpeting that the loonie is rising, but compared to what? A greenback that isn't worth the paper it's printed on? The Euro? The price of a loaf of bread?

[ozymandius]

41. I can only offer a half-baked response.

I think that what the currency trade seeks is parity and stability. Neither exists in today's financial world because of international crises. When you think about the absence of reliable economic rhythms and standards, then it is not hard to understand how someone like George Soros became so wealthy. Soros learned to anticipate crises in currency and commodity. He moved ahead of the herd to establish himself as the "point man" when the rest of the world needed currency to flow in a particular direction.

Economics tolerates ebb and flow, loves certainty and hates crisis and uncertainty. Recessions are tolerable and they redirect out-of-whack economic systems. It's a bit like "thinning the herd", if you will.

About currencies that are pegged to the greenback - I suspect that their value fluctuates with the greenback unless nations decide to peg their currency to something else, like the euro.

I do not know about the loonie.

About relative value: even when the Soviet system collapsed and the ruble was essentially worthless, it could still buy commodity. There is a psychological aspect to cold hard cash that transcends international market value and even relative gold value.

There are others on this board who know all the answers to your questions. I feel that some clues have filtered into my head. That is what I have attempted to share with you.

[radfringe]

3. Good Morning all

:hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi:

mighty winds and snow showers here - has me bent over like a question mark this morning... big aches

so Baghdad Bush is touting the "recovery"... methinks he speaks too soon to trumpet "triumphs"... One good quarter does not a recovery make

Wonder why no banner behind him saying "Recovery Accomplished" ? :evilgrin:

he's still in record deficit spending and deficit job creation

Lower interest rates have helped, lots of refinancing of homes - many at a variable rates. Big hit to the pocket book when Greenspan raises the rates as been hinted to happen in March '04

This is a bubble that is heading to pop. I suspect the markets know it too from their less than delirious reaction to the GDP announcement last week.

The latest scandal - Mutual Funds - will put a dent in things. Investor confidence will take a hit.

PPT has it work cut out for them.

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Rad!

I'm very sorry to hear your ailing, dear.

I have just returned from Financial Sense Online to post something that happens to be a-propos of your comments. It seems that one economist shares your views albeit expressed a bit differently. History is not on our side for many reasons. One: we, collectively, have never managed an economy this big with debts this big. The current fiscal mis-management is a time bomb that will make the 1929 crash pale by comparison.

Have you heard the news: insider dumping of stocks is at an all-time high, even greater than the massive outflow experienced in the Enron economic microcosm.

Be well soon, Rad.

[radfringe]

6. Insider more significant that the media reports

just my little opinion...

Think about it - Insider trading/dumping is based on information that the regular-joe-investor doesn't have

sooooo what do they know that we don't?

"Insiders" trade/dump to maximize their profits and minimize their losses..
sooooooooooo if they are dumping, then they know something is barreling down the highway

[ozymandius]

5. A Letter to My Grandchildren by Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.

<excerpt>
THE U.S. ECONOMY

The Line In The Sand
November 3, 2003
Bob Wood ChFC, CLU, RIA is President of Kaizen Managed Assets, Inc., an independent money manager in Clearwater, Florida

No one has ever been responsible with the oversight of an $11 trillion economy before. We can't just look back in time at how others managed something this big through good and bad times. That book, and all the lessons contained therein are being written now.

<cut>

The bigger risk now I think is to the overall economy. Greenspan has been taking the battle to his fight against deflation. When asked how he would deal with that menace when confronted, he basically said that he didn't know. We have never had to deal with deflation before, he explained.

But the Fed and President Bush continue to advocate printing, borrowing and spending. The recent spike in GDP to a reported 7.2% for the most recent quarter was fuelled by tax rebates. That loss of income to our mutual financial statement will have to be replaced, if not by stellar new growth then by higher taxes.

<cut>
We are writing history here. But the potential that we have gone way too far looks likely now. Politically, its too hard for our leaders to do what the Brazilian government has done. They cut spending and reined in their balance sheets, not typically popular.

more...

[JNelson6563]

8. Good morning marketeers!

And a special hello to our dear old friend Rad!! We got some serious weather here too, hard winds but most snow went around us, more inland.

So judging by all that's posted this morning the watchword is Sustainability. I still can't get over gold. I have long held it to be the safest bet out there. :-)

So I see Wal-Mart missed by a penny. Good. I hope they get hammered, greedy bastards. (To any interested trolls out there, I've got a few years on the inside of the evil empire so if you want to get into discussion let me know).

They are whining about Soros on CNBC. Crybabies. hahaha

Julie

[Maeve]

9. And a good Initial Claims Day to everyone!

With a special call-out to radfringe! :hi:

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

Windy and cold here today, too, and I get to go tell stories to kids after school (so I'll leave early afternoon). The CURRENT readings on the Initial Claims for unemployment--last week, we had the remarkable drop to 348K from 391K (revised up from 386K). Current expectations are for today's number to rise to 364-370K.

Expect last week's numbers to rise, too. We may see the usual pattern--the number will jump this week, but last week's will be adjusted up so it looks like a DROP.

Also, remember--just as it's harder to lose weight as the diet progresses and you have less to lose, so too do jobs disappear slower when the economy has been paring them this long. We have to add 170,000 jobs a week to account for population growth AND we have almost THREE MILLION jobs to recover since Dubya took office. I want to see some progress in that direction before I celebrate a "recovery."

[Maeve]

18. Too late to edit above but...

That should be 170,000 jobs per MONTH, not per week, needed to maintain the job market. Mea culpa.

[JNelson6563]

10. UE up 13K to 366,000

Trade deficit up to $41 billion.

Ouch.

Julie

[Maeve]

13. Up 13K?

Then they revised last week's to 353K from 348....not so bad. Trade balance is worse than expected, but that may have no effect on the casino today.

[jamesinca]

15. Good morning all

If the deficit is $41 billion now and that is an ouch how do you think the EU $2 billion tariffs will influence it? Dec. 17 will be an interesting day, just in time to put a damper on the holiday spending season.

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.81 Change -0.50 (-0.54%)

and here it is Thursday - reports due out - dollar may either make a "comeback" on strong data or take a bigger "dip" on weaker data. We shall have to wait and see, but it looks like there is very little "good will" and "faith" left to prop it up.

Iraq-nam has got investors spooked and the money people seem to understand that a monetary "war" with the US is just as effective as a weapon.

Have a great day Marketeers!

[JNelson6563]

17. "Iraq-nam" good one

Today's numbers point to a rough day for the green-back.

Julie

[ozymandius]

12. Bulls ready to proceed

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wal-Mart's slightly disappointing earnings report might not deter Wall Street's bulls Thursday as they await economic reports on labor and trade, and Dell's results after the close.

At 7:15 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a higher start for the major indexes, although S&P futures retreated after the Wal-Mart results were announced.

more...

[ozymandius]

14. (rebuttal) Stocks Seen Flat as Wal-Mart Disappoints

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to open nearly unchanged or slightly lower on Thursday, after strong gains in the previous session, as a small earnings disappointment from Wal-Mart offset upbeat comments from IBM on technology spending.

<cut>
But Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - news), the world's biggest company, just missed Wall Street's loftier expectations with quarterly results announced early Thursday.

"Wal-Mart took a bit a bit of steam out of the futures," said Peter Dunay, chief market and options strategist at brokerage Wall Street Access. "Missing by a penny doesn't look good in the headline. There's a lot of focus on the Christmas season, so if you start seeing retailers being lackluster, that's a concern."

story

[Maeve]

16. Mortgage demand dips to 15-month low

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/13/news/economy/mortgages.reut/index.htm
Overall applications for home loans falls 8.6%, led by 10% slump in demand for refinancings.
November 13, 2003: 7:22 AM EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home loans dropped last week to their lowest level in almost a year and a half, a trade group said Thursday, as rising rates cut into demand for homes and mortgage refinancing.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its market index, a barometer of mortgage applications, fell 8.6 percent to 626.0 in the week ended Nov. 7 -- its lowest level since the week ended June 14, 2002.

[ozymandius]

19. At long last - I can get to work.

A bit of tummy trouble has been dogging me this morning. It seems to have quieted down. So I leave you with best wishes for the day.

As tummy troubles and all our troubles, this too shall pass.

Ozymandius

[UpInArms]

20. Record imports widen U.S. trade gap in September

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2003/11/13/rtr1146567.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened in September to $41.3 billion, as the strengthening U.S. economy propelled imports from China and the rest of the world to record levels, the government said on Thursday.

The trade gap was slightly larger than the mid-point estimate of $40.5 billion from analysts surveyed before the report. The deficit widened for the first time in six months as surging imports outstripped the biggest increase in exports in over three years, the Commerce Department said.

Imports of goods and services totaled $127.4 billion. The 3.3 percent jump was led by higher imports of cars, auto parts and capital goods, including computer accessories and civilian aircraft. Imports of services also set a record at $21.1 billion.

Although overshadowed by the record imports, exports jumped to $86.2 billion in September, the highest level since May 2001. The 2.8 percent month-to-month gain was the highest since June 2000. Services exports set a record at $26.3 billion.

...more...

widening trade gap a good thing? hahahahahahahahaha!

yeah, and I have a lovely lot of swamp to sell :D

and the dollar continues to drop ('cause our economy's is doing so well!)

[ze_dscherman]

21. Meanwhile

China's monthly trade surplus widens to record

China's trade surplus hit US$5.74bn in October, its highest in more than half a decade, despite a 40 per cent year-on-year climb in imports, according to official statistics released on Thursday.


The monthly trade data, which showed exports rose 37 per cent compared with October 2002 to US$40.93bn while imports reached US$35.19bn, are likely to add fuel to complaints from the US and elsewhere about China's trade and currency policies.


More: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565854473&p=1045050946495

[UpInArms]

22. isn't this a wonderful story

and yet the cheerleaders are so excited that the Big 3 automakers are going to be able to export 15,000 vehicles into China next year - great strides in offsetting that trade balance.

hahahahahahaha

when Squal-mart goes under, I will believe there is hope for the trade gap, but as long as we race to the bottom, we are screwed.

[Maeve]

23. At the top of the hour (10 EST)

Dow 9,808.60 -40.23 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,967.52 -5.59 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,055.79 -2.74 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.321% -0.091

[Maeve]

24. 10:42

There was an attempt at a rally earlier this hour, but....

Dow 9,807.12 -41.71 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,962.45 -10.66 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,054.54 -3.99 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% -0.082

[JNelson6563]

25. failed attempt

things still floating around what you posted.

What a batch of sorry numbers. And Jr's in a pickle. There are those on his side of the aisle that feel repealing the tariffs is "giving in" to the EU. There are others proclaiming the tariffs were wrong from the start, illegal and that Jr will knwo to elimiante them.

Either way some in his camp will strongly diagree.

What interesting times we live in!

Julie

[UpInArms]

26. does anyone else find it a bit odd

that the Yahoo cheerleading section has remained quiet all morning?

no blather since 9:15 am EST

current numbers are:

Dow 9,800.38 -48.45 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,958.31 -14.80 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,053.37 -5.16 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.329% -0.083

and the dollar is:

Last trade 91.78 Change -0.53 (-0.57%)

[Maeve]

30. Yahoo has had a few problems this week

So I went to Briefing.com, the folks who supply the blather. (see post below)

[On the Road]

27. Uptrend Broken?

Up to now, it has been a nice set of higher highs and higher lows.

Yesterday may have been the first lower high of recent months. Beginning of a trend?

[Beetwasher]

28. I've been following the threads but haven't posted in a while

because honestly it's no longer possible for me to even begin to understand what's going on w/ the market. It didn't make sense before and now it makes even less sense.

I suspect there has been MASSIVE amounts of clandestine intervention lately and that can't be good.

[Maeve]

29. 11:52 and climbing out of the hole (blather added)

Dow 9,819.86 -28.97 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,964.53 -8.58 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,055.81 -2.72 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.340% -0.072

And from Briefing.com (since Yahoo isn't hooked in right now)

"11:30 ET Dow -37, Nasdaq -12, S&P -3.89: More of the same, with the major averages vacillating near their session lows... Today's declining session can be attributed to simple profit-taking on the heels of yesterday's sizeable advance, which ranged 1.1-2.2% and does not alter Briefing.com's bullish long-term view for stocks... The economic data continues to be supportive of an accelerating economy... To that effect, the Initial Claims report at 366K (consensus 364K) extended the favorable employment trend exhibited by the strong October Employment report last Friday, which checked in with non-farm payrolls at 126K and boded well for November payroll gains of 100+K... Today's report also brought the 4-week average for initial claims from 381K to 375K, its lowest level since March of 2001... Volume thus far has been running at a heavier clip than the levels witnessed throughout this week, but is lighter than last week's totals at this juncture... "

[mrsteve]

31. 11:57 - Hello Marketeer Club!

Looks like a wee bit of profit taking after the bulls stampede yesterday.

Dow 9,818.68 -30.15 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,964.12 -8.99 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,055.77 -2.76 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.338% -0.074

And yes, I also noticed that the Yahoo Fi updates are notably lacking for the day. What's up with that? Are they in a meeting no one told us about?

[Maeve]

32. 1:26 and mostly sideways

Dow 9,821.42 -27.41 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,962.36 -10.75 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,055.52 -3.01 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% -0.082

[jamesinca]

33. This should play out well in the near future

Wal-Mart, Target Cool Holiday Sales Hopes

By Emily Kaiser

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. on Thursday cooled holiday shopping expectations with muted outlooks for the vital retail season, dimming hopes that a rebounding U.S. economy would bring robust sales.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20031113/bs_nm/retail_earns_dc

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe they are predicting a slow season so they can post higher than expected gains.

[ozymandius]

35. Ya know, James, I could see that psychology playing out in the future.

It's Scotty's old trick from Star Trek: you tell the captain it will take twelve hours to fix a problem when you know it will take you six. Then when you fix the problem in seven hours, you look like a damned genius.

[jamesinca]

36. They pull a lot of Scotty's it seems

UE numbers are Scottied in a way it seems, profits are for sure. We even Scotty our President. Nobody has expectations of him so when he ties his shoes in the morning he is considered a genious.

Hope the stomach is feeling better and welcome back to the board Ozy.

[ozymandius]

34. Hello Marketeers! Checking in with an update.

at 2:34

Dow 9,818.90 -29.93 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,956.82 -16.29 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,054.89 -3.64 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282% -0.130

[UpInArms]

37. update at 2:56

Dow 9,839.72 -9.11 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,962.89 -10.22 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,057.26 -1.27 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% -0.137

and the dollar

Last trade 91.60 Change -0.71 (-0.77%)

where oh where is the BoJ when you need it?

(edit typo)

[ozymandius]

38. 3:36 and sinking again

Dow 9,836.38 -12.45 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,965.69 -7.42 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,058.09 -0.44 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% -0.141

[mrsteve]

40. Closing numbers

After a stong rise in the latter half of the day, the markets close just below the waterline.

Dow 9,837.94 -10.89 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,967.35 -5.76 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,058.41 -0.12 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% -0.141

See everyone tomorrow.