STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY NOV 14....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday November 14, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 437
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 336 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 27 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 236
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 720
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 13, 2003

Dow... 9,837.94 -10.89 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq... 1,967.35 -5.76 (-0.29%)
S&P 500.... 1,058.41 -0.15 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% -0.14 (-3.20%)
Gold future... 394.30 -0.70 (-0.18%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"Is Recent Stock Behavior Signaling Holiday Season End to Market Rally?"

The holiday party season is here in both real life and the stock market. Have you noticed that some of the people who you only see at these affairs tend to act the same year after year? These same tendencies occur with stocks. We already know that the market is going through a secondary correction in a primary bear market. The magnitude and duration of this correction has surprised many market observers including me. Some fundamental analysts believe as I do, that the current rally is being fueled by the same hot air that inflated the bursting bubble in March of 2000. Therefore, the question many people should ask at a holiday party is, when will the market resume its primary down trend? Evidence to help answer that question can be found in the behavior of some stocks during the sudden drop of the March 2000 stock market.

<cut>
The behavior of the low and high quality Internet and Technology stocks will soon provide us with insight as to when, the secondary correction will be over. The definitive topping of the higher quality Internet stocks will likely provide a signal of what big market-moving speculators are doing and not saying. Although there have been some clear signs that the lower quality Internet stocks have topped, additional evidence is needed to safely time and trade with a NASDAQ stock market top. The flight to and not from quality will also provide a secondary signal of when the market top has passed.
<cut>

All is Not Rosy at the Strip Mall

The cliché is that, “the consumer continues to do his job.” Well, apparently Wal-Mart and Target shoppers don’t watch CNBC. Although thanks to Uncle Sam, most consumers had more money in their pocket last quarter (to coin the headline slang), “Wal-Mart missed by a penny, and guided lower for the Christmas quarter.” Target also forecast a slower 4th quarter than its previous forecasts. This from Lee Scott, President and Chief Executive Officer of Wal-Mart, “I don’t think consumer spending is slowing, but I also don’t see the strength that many of you in the investment community appear to see.”

<cut>

In general, retailers are selling at the high end of their historic valuations. Although things appear to be tough at the lower end department stores where guidance was lowered, things appear better at the higher end department stores such as Neiman Marcus, May Department Stores, Federated Stores, and JC Penny. They are generally maintaining their guidance numbers. So what’s going on? I think there is a consumer confidence gap between the lower middle class (Wal-Mart) shoppers and the upper middle class shoppers. The Wal-Mart shoppers generally do not have stock or mutual fund portfolios. They are not as tuned in to all of the positive economic jobs data broadcast on CNBC. They live the actual job losses and job loss threats through their personal experiences. In general, they are closer to the US’ geopolitical situation as well. Many Wal-Mart shoppers do not own homes, but those who do own homes are not seeing the same relative appreciation that the upper middle class is seeing.

more...

[Maeve]

2. TGIF, Marketeers!

The question is--"Are Wal-Mart and Target playing the expectations game or is their pessimism real?" I think the assessment Martin Goldberg gives is persuasive that there is a split, altho I would hesitate to put Wal-Mart shoppers in the "lower middle class."

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Maeve and all. Here's some rhetorical data from yesterday.

Wal-Mart's chief executive officer, Lee Scott, said holiday spending should be better in 2003 than last year's dismal performance, but he added that customers are still buying the cheapest items -- a sign household budgets remain tight.

The market sagged early as the comments cast some doubt on the ability of the American consumer -- whose spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity -- to continue driving the fledgling economic recovery.

story

[Maeve]

6. As we get into shopping season, I'll be watching the parking lots

The malls have been much emptier the past year or two and the discount stores busier....even while the happy-talking local "news" readers try to talk up the buying.

And which report has been more accurate?

October PPI, Retail Sales and November Michigan Sentiment(prelim) are out later this morning, along with a few lesser followed numbers. Also watching Dell.

Mortgage rates are rising and property taxes are rising in many areas as well (on top of rising house values, that can be a double whammy). Housing remains an "interesting" sector.

:donut::donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

7. Found it! Here's more from a story yesterday.

Wal-Mart Profit Falls a Bit Short

Although revenue in the quarter rose 13.1 percent, to $62.5 billion, and came in ahead of estimates, it appeared that profits were squeezed, despite rising 15.5 percent from 40 cents a year ago. A spokesman for Wal-Mart said shoppers, while filling the aisles, tended to buy the lowest-priced items in a category. "We think the consumer is cautious," said the spokesman, Tom Williams. "They are looking for that low price."

In addition, shopping patterns followed paycheck cycles, a sign that consumers were not comfortable spending more than they had in their pockets. "By the 15th of the month, you have the beginning of a V," he said. "Then on the 16th, you have the V going back up again."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/14/business/14shop.html

[leftyandproud]

5. go Gold...go Gold...woot woot! ;)

looks like a flight to safety (gold n silver) in Dubya's economy

[mrsteve]

17. Lots of interesting analysis in this article

Especially, it contains a lot more facts that you can use to patiently explain to your friends as to why the current stock market rise is a bubble, not a trend.

[JNelson6563]

3. Lots of #s today Marketeers!

Willit be like yesterday?? Could be...

Will check in when some #s come in. Hope all are faring well!!

Julie

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

and it looks iffy, but I think the BoJ will pull through today (just a hunch)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.33 Change -0.28 (-0.31%)

[Maeve]

29. Dollar stumbles to 3-week low

Dollar Stumbles After Data Clouds Outlook
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled to a three-week low against the euro on Friday after mixed data released earlier clouded the outlook for U.S. economic recovery.
Data showed a drop in U.S. retail sales, a bump higher in producer prices and an improvement in consumer sentiment. Those reports weakened prospects for recovery and weighed on the greenback.
"People bought (dollars) in anticipation of better numbers and then bought after the numbers came out; then there was no interest to buy more," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets

[Maeve]

9. Producer prices up, retail sales down

Producer prices gain a surprisingly high 0.8% in October
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly posted their biggest gain in seven months in October as food prices rose sharply and car prices spiked with the introduction of new models, according to a government report Friday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Retail sales fall
Key measure of consumer activity down more than expected in October, as auto sales slump.
November 14, 2003: 8:32 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Retail sales fell in the United States in October, the government said Friday, as consumer spending continued to cool down from a red-hot third quarter.

The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.3 percent after falling a revised 0.4 percent in September. Excluding a decline in volatile automobile sales, retail sales rose 0.2 percent after rising a revised 0.2 percent in September.

[Maeve]

10. At the kickoff

Punt
Dow 9,833.94 -4.00 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,968.09 +0.74 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,057.95 -0.46 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292% +0.021

[ozymandius]

11. 9:48 update

Dow 9,886.31 +48.37 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,976.60 +9.25 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,063.53 +5.12 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.285% +0.014

[Maeve]

12. 10:19 and going the other way

Dow 9,820.97 -16.97 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,955.97 -11.38 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,055.89 -2.52 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.273% +0.002

[ozymandius]

13. 11:08 and up a bit but still in minus land

Dow 9,834.68 -3.26 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,951.27 -16.08 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,056.83 -1.58 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% -0.048

[JNelson6563]

14. update

Dow 9,843.27 +5.33 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,955.29 -12.06 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,058.00 -0.41 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236% -0.035


11:56 and mixed is the word.

Hope everybody's having a good day! :hi:

Julie

[mrsteve]

15. Wow - what a ski slope this morning - also 11:15 numbers

Pretty cool graph for the Dow and Nasdaq this morning. The Dow and S&P have pulled a little above water in the last hour, but the Nasdaq is still padding around below the open level.

Dow 9,845.27 +7.33 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,956.52 -10.83 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,058.82 +0.41 (+0.04%) )
10-Yr Bond 4.240% -0.031

[Maeve]

16. 12:47 and red again

Dow 9,832.90 -5.04 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,954.03 -13.32 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,057.62 -0.79 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.240% -0.031

[mrsteve]

18. 1:15 - into an afternoon lull

Looks like lunchtime tried to rally, but now it's just moving sideways.

Dow 9,837.49 -0.45 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,955.52 -11.83 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,058.45 +0.05 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% -0.014

[mrsteve]

19. Yahoo Finance is a little bored, but still cheerleading based on Wednesday

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"1:00PM: Today's sluggish trade persists with the indices trading at, or below, the unchanged mark.... Despite today's weakness, the broader market is still poised to finish higher for the week... Wednesday's impressive rally has offset the (now) four sessions of downbeat trade... For the most part, this week's economic and earnings reports have been supportive of the market's advance, with notables such as Dell (DELL 35.66 +0.02) and Starbucks (SBUX 32.24 -0.76) reporting solid earnings numbers...
Briefing.com continues to call for stocks to move higher over the intermediate-term, due to the improving corporate profits outlook and the low interest rate environment..."

[mrsteve]

20. 2:05 - sideways and down across the board

Loks like Wednesday's rally took out almost all the energy for the week.

Dow 9,825.12 -12.82 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,949.52 -17.83 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,056.82 -1.59 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.256% -0.015

[Maeve]

21. 2:37 and falling

Dow 9,796.83 -41.11 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,941.88 -25.47 (-1.29%)
S&P 500 1,053.54 -4.86 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% -0.017

[mrsteve]

22. Sputtering toward the last hour - down a little more and dropping

Almost 90 minutes left in the day and the trend is slowly downward.

Dow 9,796.53 -41.41 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,941.75 -25.60 (-1.30%)
S&P 500 1,053.48 -4.93 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252% -0.019

[ozymandius]

23. 3pm - OMG!

Dow 9,764.83 -73.11 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,936.22 -31.13 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,050.98 -7.42 (-0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% -0.027

[Maeve]

24. Beat me to it! What the halliburton is going on?

:shrug:

[ozymandius]

25. Here is a clue.

Tech selling, weak data stall U.S. stocks

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks slumped Friday due to largely disappointing economic data and across-the-board weakness in the techs.

Smart gains from Merck and J&J carried the Dow higher for much of the session before succumbing to broad selling. Breadth within the blue chip index was negative with 21 of the 30 components losing ground. Recent strength in techs dissipated after a ho-hum report from Dell, and disappointing earnings news from BEA Systems and Portal Software.

<cut>
The economic data provided cause for concern in the form of an unexpected jump in prices in October, as well as a wider than forecast decline in adjusted retail sales, and a slight decline in industrial production for the month. On the bright side, consumer sentiment bounced in early November.

The data came just as a Fed official expressed the government's desire to keep monetary policy "accommodative" as long as inflation remains low and excess capacity persists. The comments came from Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He added, however, that rates must rise as the economy regains its footing.

story

[UpInArms]

26. continuing to slip

Dow 9,740.83 -97.11 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq 1,930.79 -36.56 (-1.86%)
S&P 500 1,048.29 -10.12 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236% -0.035

[mrsteve]

27. 2:10 - Eeek! A slight drop has turned into a full fledged rout

Per Yahoo Finance, today is rolling back the last of the week's gains.

Dow 9,745.20 -92.74 (-0.94%)
Nasdaq 1,931.38 -35.97 (-1.83%)
S&P 500 1,048.81 -9.60 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% -0.036

Yahoo Finance is worried:
"3:00PM: The bears continue to exert their influence over the proceedings, and knock the indices down to progressively lower levels... As it stands now, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are slated to finish the week lower... The Composite stands to be the biggest loser for the week, poised to close more than 30 points lower... Significant selling in the semiconductor/semiconductor equipment group over the past two days has undercut the Nasdaq, and led to its demise...
Applied Materials (AMAT 23.70 -1.14) has tumbled despite the world's largest chip maker's better than expected Q4 (Oct) report and Q1 (Jan) revenue guidance on Wednesday... Such pronounced selling in technology has contributed to the Nasdaq's decline below its 20-day exponential moving average at 1938..."

[mrsteve]

28. So, are we looking at that trough in the Nasdaq that Goldberg mentioned?

He gave some interesting methods for predicting the pop of the current bubble in the Wrap-up that Ozy posted above.

Oh yes, and nice duplicate posting with you Up in Arms. I gotta remember to refresh before I post!

(edit for typo and content)

[ozymandius]

31. curious phrase

The definitive topping of the higher quality Internet stocks will likely provide a signal of what big market-moving speculators are doing and not saying.

So my question is, "Where is the money flowing?" We would need to look at individual trends and niches inside the tech sector rather than the big Nasdaq picture. So what is suffering the most: the trendy niche markets or the meat-and-potatoes tech sectors?

[JNelson6563]

30. Ral-ly! Ral-ly!!

3:36 and things inching upward (in unison even!):


Dow 9,771.57 -66.37 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,937.19 -30.16 (-1.53%)
S&P 500 1,051.49 -6.92 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% -0.038

Julie

[UpInArms]

32. wish I could impersonate

a "televangelist" and exclaim:

It's a miracle!!!

[ozymandius]

33. Vultures have come to feed.

Bleeding proceeds feeding, and so it goes...

3:39
Dow 9,776.24 -61.70 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,937.90 -29.45 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,052.00 -6.41 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% -0.038

[ozymandius]

34. looking to end the day ragged and bloody (w/ yammering)

3:57
Dow 9,766.83 -71.11 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,932.62 -34.73 (-1.77%)
S&P 500 1,050.26 -8.14 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% -0.038

3:30PM: The bleeding continues on Wall Street as the indices head lower and set new session lows in the process... Buyers just couldn't find much to get excited about in today's trade - with a batch of economic data (see Briefing.com's Economic Calendar for the full list of reports) coming in around the market's expectation, and the bulk of analyst commentary slanted towards the negative... Consequently, traders took the opportunity to take some money off the table, using the indices' fall through a series of support levels as further reason to lighten positions...

[JNelson6563]

36. the end is upon us

and it looks like this:


Dow 9,768.16 -69.78 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,930.26 -37.09 (-1.89%)
S&P 500 1,050.29 -8.12 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% -0.038


At least we made it through another week. Yesterday's amazing gains may have to hold us for while.

Have a good weekend Marketeers!! :hi:

Julie

[gratuitous]

35. Just rolled right off the end of the table, didn't it?

What is that, three or four days in a row of losses? Looks like the Sunday shows are going to have to scramble a bit for good economic news for Stupidhead. I have confidence in them, though. After toadying this long, facile lying has become second nature.

[Maeve]

37. "Profits were taken, nothing to see"

Look, it's Kolbe! And Rosie! And did you hear the latest about Scott Peterson???