Tax refunds expected to jump 27%

[underpants]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&ncid=676&e=1&u=/usatoday/20031114/ts_usatoday/11952445

Taxpayers' refund checks will increase nearly 27% to an average $2,500 per family early next year, according to new forecasts from tax experts and economists, who say the windfalls will aid consumers, the economy and President Bush (news - web sites)'s re-election campaign.

As a result of the 2003 tax cut, about 8 million families who did not receive refunds this year will likely get them in 2004, says tax software publisher Petz Enterprises. It estimates refunds for the tax season will go to 108 million households vs. 100 million this year and will total $227 billion. That's up 38% from 2003. Merrill Lynch estimates total refunds from February through May will be up 34% from this year.

The Treasury Department (news - web sites) estimates it will collect $100 billion less in taxes in the first half of 2004 than it would have without the tax cut. That reflects not only the higher refunds but also reduced tax payments by those who don't get refunds.

"There is a real strong correlation between after-tax income growth and the share of the vote the incumbent party candidate gets," says Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte who has studied the historical links between economics and elections.

"The economy should actually help Bush," he says.

[MetaTrope]

1. So the newly unemployed get higher tax refunds?

Makes sense to me.

[Mountainman]

7. Well taxes were withheld at a rate for a yearly salary amount

and many folks like me will never make that yearly amount after being laid off. So in effect my deductions were too high for the amount of money I will actually make this year.

I don't think those unemployed who get a tax refund will vote for Bush.

[The_Gopher]

2. key word is *AVERAGE*....i'd be interested in how much lower the median is

[RobertSeattle]

13. Exacta-mundo

The median refund will be considerably smaller.

BTW - Here'a nice Quicken website where you can estimate your taxes for this year.

http://www.turbotax.com/calculators/lawchange/notemplates/

[underpants]

17. I just did a rough figuring on that site we will only owe $2,500

as opposed to the $4,300 we would have owed under the old law. So we "saved" $1,800 and we are right in that bracket listed in the article, but we don't have a kid.

I had to guess at some of my wife's information, I don't know what she is having (has had) withheld.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[denverbill]

6. Underpants a freeper? Jebus, you must be new.

[underpants]

9. Look it's news

It may not be GOOD news (we'll see) but it is news.

[UpInArms]

14. it's the USA Today spin zone

and it is the Florida paper whitewash job :)

Please don't shoot the messenger (Underpants) because of the source of the "news" -

if you don't know how the RW is spinning the stories, how can you know what information to present to offset it?

thanks for the post, Underpants!

[gratuitous]

4. An "average" of $2,500

So, when Unka Dick gets $250,000 and 99 of us get squat-ah, that's an "average" of $2,500, right?

[Noordam]

5. ONLY looks good in Newspaper headlines

But you are right..... Most ppl will get ZIP.....

[UpInArms]

8. similar to when

Bill Gates walks into a homeless shelter (like that would ever happen) and everyone in the room becomes a millionaire.

[many a good man]

10. "will collect $100 billion less in taxes in the first half of 2004 "

That's a nice round number. An even nicer round number would have been $87 Billion .

That's a number the average citizen can understand.

[mumon]

11. BULL.

What is the MEDIAN "refund???"

[Cocoa]

12. so we should rack up the debt this Christmas season?

because we're going to get a lot of money to pay it off in Jan.?

Ok, will do, whatever you say Mr. Economist Man.

[Maeve]

15. Lies, damn lies and statistics

And what's the average per person for the national debt going to be by then?

[bushisanidiot]

16. More Nickels For The Mattress Savings Account

gawd, will there be an economy left when AWOL get's out of office? he's raiding the treasury!

[snippy]

18. This is the result of a slick move by Turd Blossom Rove.

When the tax cut was passed, the reductions in those marginal rates which were lowered were made retroactive to the beginning of the year but the new withholding tables did not account for the retroactivity. Some republicans wanted to adjust the new withholding tables which went into effect in July to further decrease the amount withheld to account for the excess amount withheld under the old tables. Their argument was that this would further stimulate the economy. The White House rejected this because it wanted refunds to be higher in the election year. In fact, in its notice of the new withholding tables, the IRS instructed employers not to have employees adjust withholding to accurately reflect their reduced tax liability.

[leesa]

19. This probably WON'T be good for Bush...because those tax cuts

are going to the wealthy and most people will get nothing. They will find this out round about April next year.

[TacticalPeek]

20. As many posters note above, the median would be more informative

than the average here, considering the effect of the salacious skewing of the tax cuts.

I was impressed by the dems' use of graphics in the 39 hour Senate overkill. I thought the signs etc. were pretty good, production-value-wise. They should use similar and improved techniques to portray the financial and ecomomic truth behind the mish-mash of smoke-and-mirrors talking points that wind up in newspapers and tv accounts.

In addition to the median, I would want to know the spread of refund amounts over income levels, etc.

When it comes to numbers, most people look at a good graph and quickly perceive quantitative relations, trends, etc., whereas relatively few folks can scan a set of numbers and tell what's going on, or even care about the difference between median and average.

[underpants]

21. Yeah but look at who the big winners are

The biggest winners, Petz says, will be the approximately 10 million married couples with a combined income of $46,700 to $56,800. Those couples dropped from the 27% bracket to the 15% bracket.


That is a $10,100 window to hit there. In apost above I stated that my wife and I were in that window, we aren't we make more so we missed it.

We will still owe ~$2,500 but have a "savings" of $1,800 (we would have owed $4,300 in the old tax system which isn't right either we paid $2,900 this year).

[54anickel]

22. What's that line, Past performance is not indicative....

or something like that.

"There is a real strong correlation between after-tax income growth and the share of the vote the incumbent party candidate gets," says Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte who has studied the historical links between economics and elections.

We have an entirely new dynamics going on here today. Many of those NASCAR Dads we used to hear about are unemployed, don't think that refund is going to have them hollering Ya-hoo this pres is great!
Tax cuts and record deficits hand in hand - don't think anyone else has been loopy enough to try that strategy. And in a loosing war against terror, hmmm a war against an unknown enemy. Terrorist, that would include folks like McVeigh, the bomber at the Olympics, the abortion clinic bombers and Dr. shooters, along with the only ones that Shrub is willing to recognize i.e. the "Insurgents" in the ME.

Shrub needs a miracle beyond a simple tax refund. Contrary to what he believes, I don't think God is on his side.

[durutti]

23. What?!!

A few points...

1. Why is Yahoo? editorializing? Why is this journalist (read: propagandist) writing as if all economists endorse the tax cut, when in fact a great many opposed and continue to oppose it?

2. As several other posters noted, the "average" is misleading. 50 percent of taxpayers will get less than $100 from the tax cut. Enormous sums for the wealthy alone won't do much to spur the economy, especially when not enough is being done to increase demand.

[leetrisck]

24. "Likely", "Maybe", "average", - when people

don't have jobs, they rarely get tax refunds. If people have cash flow problems on a month to month basis, this doesn't help either - yes it's nice if one gets it back at the end if one doesn't starve to death while big brother decides when and if, etc., etc.

[Wednesdays]

25. Who are these people?

...according to new forecasts from tax experts and economists...

I love it when they toss out figures from these faceless "tax experts and economists."

You mean, like tax experts and economists from the Heritage Foundation?