STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 31 March

[ozymandius]

Friday March 31, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1025 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1926 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1626 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1587
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 30, 2006

Dow... 11,150.70 -65.00 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq... 2,340.82 +3.04 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,300.25 -2.64 (-0.20%)
Gold future... 591.80 +13.20 (+2.23%)
30-Year Bond 4.89% +0.05 (+1.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.86% +0.05 (+0.94%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

-cut past a nice internet history tale-

Today’s Market

As far as I am concerned, all signs suggest that we are now observing the beginning of the helicopter money era. Consider the following intermediate term trends:

* Stocks up.
* Precious metals up.
*Commodities up.
*Bonds down.
*US dollar down.

All of these trends appear to be well-established. And this would be the behavior of the financial markets if the money supply were simply being dropped from helicopters on everything and everyone below. But complacency is also up tremendously as evidenced by the stock market’s inability to turn in even one stinker of a day. So the behavior of the market would also seem to suggest that there is chloroform being dropped from the helicopters. It is also true that Boeing is leading the Dow higher, so there’s more evidence that it is helicopters being used. But then again, maybe not…the Boeing action is probably the market discounting more military activity that is occurring on borrowed money.

I’m hearing so much talk about the fed, and what the fed may do based on the fed’s interpretation of what is best for the US’ economy. I’m far from a fed expert (probably more of an expert than many claiming such a distinction), but the overall assumption that I make in modeling fed behavior is that their overall goal is to enrich those who they represent at the expense of the public. They enrich banking and financial institutions and especially their ownership. The general model is that the fed will, through “monetary policy,” provide loose money conditions to allow portions of the population to do what they otherwise would not do. Usually this is to take on too much debt. In the most recent case, they created the monetary conditions and backdrop (with some media assistance), to entice much of the public to purchase homes with absurd debt structures. Then (now), they tighten policy, thereby shearing the sheep that were enticed into doing what they otherwise would not, thereby resulting in foreclosures. In the extended period of time to run this process full circle, through use of the media, the public is fooled into thinking that everything is AOK. Then when things ultimately come crashing down, through the media, a host of scapegoats are created and paraded about. Say hello to Henry Blodget and Jack Grubman. Wealth is exchanged from the fooled to the fool-ers.

-cut-

The Fed is putting out signals that they need to “fight” inflation. Up will go interest rates. Down go real estate prices. More foreclosures coming on those properties with the absurd variable interest rate zero principle loans. What were you thinking?

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

13. Morning Ozy. So, Martin thinks the scapegoats this time around

will be the short sellers? These days that tends to be a pretty wide group - day traders, hedge funds, speculators...all those "new paradigm" folk that cause old timers to say "this ain't your father's market anymore". The poor little buy and hold guys don't stand a chance these days...and there are sooooo many of them. :-(

[ozymandius]

17. These groups are too easy to scapegoat.

I use them, too, to scapegoat because I believe their leverage on stockprices is far greater than that of any traditional buy-and-hold investor. We have bad governance in the markets that allows hedge funds to run unregulated, companies to fudge/minimize expenses while allowing misleading profit reports.

You're right. The little guy hardly stands a chance against this mafia.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Personal Income Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.9%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar
Briefing Forecast 86.7
Market Expects 86.9
Prior 86.7

10:00 AM Chicago PMI Mar
Briefing Forecast 58.0
Market Expects 57.0
Prior 54.9

10:00 AM Factory Orders Feb
Briefing Forecast 1.3%
Market Expects 1.3%
Prior -4.5%

[UpInArms]

39. 8:30 Reports:

8:30 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. FEB CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. CORE INFLATION UP 1.8% YEAR OVER YEAR

8:30 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3%

[UpInArms]

42. The savings rate was negative 0.5%. 11th straight month for neg savings.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B530CA218%2D25D8%2D4C9C%2D8B77%2DAC54EAF9319E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Prices were unchanged. Core inflation rose 0.1%.

The savings rate was negative 0.5%. It's the eleventh straight month that consumers didn't save.

Core prices are up 1.8% in the past 12 months.

Real disposable incomes increased 0.2%, the slowest growth since August.

In January, incomes rose 0.7%. Consumer spending rose a revised 0.8% in January.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting incomes to rise by 0.4%. They forecast that spending would rise 0.1%.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

45. Consumer Spending Slows in February

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Economy.html?ex=1144472400&en=b28e7ec92c875cf9&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer spending, which had soared because of unusually warm weather in January, slowed sharply in February while Americans' incomes grew by the smallest amount in three months.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that personal consumption spending rose by a tiny 0.1 percent last month, the weakest gain in six months. It followed a huge 0.8 percent surge in January that had reflected a mild winter that lured shoppers to the stores to spend their Christmas gift cards.

Personal incomes rose by 0.3 percent in February, less than half the 0.7 percent jump in January. The January increase had been boosted by federal government pay raises and cost-of-living adjustments for millions of Social Security recipients.

<snip>

Many analysts are looking for the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, to race ahead at an annual rate of 4.5 percent or higher in the January-March quarter after slowing to a meager 1.7 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

<snip>

Consumer spending is closely watched since it accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.

...more...

[UpInArms]

55. Revised March Sentiment @ 88.9

9:47 AM ET 3/31/06 UMICH MARCH SENTIMENT ABOVE 86.7 IN FEB.

9:47 AM ET 3/31/06 UMICH MARCH SENTIMENT REVISED UP TO 88.9 VS 86.7: REPORT

Damn! We ARE THRILLED!

[UpInArms]

58. Chicago PMI @ 60.4 in March - Feb Factory Orders Up 0.2% (below expect)

10:01 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. MARCH CHICAGO PMI ABOVE 54.9% IN FEB.

10:01 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. MARCH CHICAGO PMI 60.4 VS 56.9% EXPECTED

10:02 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. MARCH CHICAGO PMI HIGHEST SINCE DEC.

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S FEB. FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION DOWN 2.0%

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. JAN. FACTORY ORDERS REVISED TO -3.9% VS. -4.5%

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. FEB. FACTORY INVENTORIES DROP 0.4%

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. FEB. FACTORY SHIPMENTS FALL 1.1%

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. FEB. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS FALL 1.7%

10:00 AM ET 3/31/06 U.S. FEB. FACTORY ORDERS RISE 0.2% VS. 1.4% EXPECTED

(edited 'cause I read the wrong line for my header)

[UpInArms]

59. more info on Factory Orders:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAB3ABAA6%2D41EF%2D4523%2D8557%2D5F33A0660AFA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for U.S.-made manufactured goods rose 0.2% in February, as a surge in aircraft orders was offset by a large decline in petroleum, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists were looking for new orders to rise about 1.4% in February after falling a revised 3.9% in January. Shipments of factory orders dropped 1.1%. Inventories fell 0.4%. Unfilled orders increased 0.9%. Orders for core capital goods equipment fell 1.7%. Orders for durable goods increased 2.7%, revised up from the 2.6% estimated last week. Shipments of durables increased 0.2%. Orders for nondurable goods fell 2.5%, almost entirely due to an 11.1% drop in petroleum orders.

[ozymandius]

3. Crude Oil Prices Dip Below $67 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices retreated Friday as traders took profits following continuous gains over the last three sessions due to strong demand for fuel and falling U.S. gasoline inventories.

-cut-

Analysts said concerns over falling U.S. gasoline stocks would continue to keep a firm floor under prices.

"Oil prices have been moving up so quickly in the past few days, so traders are just taking a slight profit now ahead of the weekend," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. "But gasoline demand is strong and inventories have gone down, so I think prices will keep moving strongly up."

Gasoline futures on Thursday jumped more than 4 cents a gallon on top of a gain of nearly 7 cents in the previous session after midweek data showed U.S. gasoline stocks fell by a surprisingly large draw of 5.4 million barrels last week, their biggest weekly draw since August 2003.

more...

[UpInArms]

62. May Crude @ $66.45 bbl - May NatGas @ $7.18 mln btus

10:09 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY CRUDE FALLS 70C TO $66.45/BRL IN MORNING TRADING

10:09 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 31.7C, OR 4.2%, TO $7.18/MLN BTUS

10:09 AM ET 3/31/06 APRIL HEATING OIL FALLS 1%; APRIL UNLEADED GAS DOWN 2.8%

10:09 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY HEATING OIL DOWN 1.2%; MAY UNLEADED GAS LOSES 2.9%

[UpInArms]

95. May Crude closes @ $66.63 bbl - May NatGas @ $7.21 mln btus

3:00 PM ET 3/31/06 MAY CRUDE CLOSES AT $66.63/BRL, DOWN 52C FOR THE DAY

3:00 PM ET 3/31/06 CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 9.2% FOR THE FIRST QUARTER

3:00 PM ET 3/31/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 3.7% TO END AT $7.21/MLN BTUS

3:00 PM ET 3/31/06 NATURAL-GAS FUTURES END THE QUARTER WITH A 35.8% LOSS

[ozymandius]

4. Soft start tipped for Wall St before consumer data

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks are set to open a touch lower on Friday ahead of key consumer sentiment data at the end of a strong first quarter.

-cut-

HEALTH CHECK

Investors will be looking for indications on the health of the U.S. economy from the University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment for March, which is due at 9:45 a.m. EST.

The index is expected to rise from the previous month to 87, bolstered by a strong labor market, according to a Reuters poll.

The preliminary March reading and February's final number were both 86.7.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Nasdaq Abandons Bid for Exchange in Britain

Nasdaq, the largest U.S. electronic equity market, is the third suitor in 14 months to walk away from the London exchange as Chief Executive Clara Furse, 48, holds out for more money.

"LSE looks a little bit left out in the cold," said Stuart Fraser, a director at Brewin Dolphin, which manages $28 billion, including about 500,000 London Stock Exchange shares. While the share price is still above Nasdaq's bid, LSE is no longer "in active play," he said.

Furse, who has touted the London exchange's viability as an independent company, on March 10 rejected Nasdaq's approach. LSE shares surged 34% in the next four days as some analysts said the New York Stock Exchange might join the bidding.

more...

[Dogmudgeon]

12. "Clara Furse, 48 ..."

Why is Ms. Furse's age of any concern? I also suspect that if it was Clarence Furse, his age would not be so prominently displayed.

Anyway, since I'll be 48 in a few weeks, maybe I have a chance with her. Whaddaya think? Do you think I should ask her to go roller skating with me this weekend, when 42nd Grade Algebra class lets out? (That's, what, "21st Form" in British schools?)

--p!
“I was born in Canada, went to school in Colombia and Denmark, and have worked for American, French and Swiss companies. So not much Scottish blood. But the good news is that I'm not English either!” (Clara Furse on Investing In High-Risk Derivatives During Bear Markets, And Looking Dead Sexy Whilst Doing So.)

[ozymandius]

6. Gold, Silver Futures Rise to Highest Since the Early 1980s

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver futures rose to their highest since the early 1980s as investment funds bet precious metals will outperform U.S. stocks and bonds.

Investment and hedge funds are pouring money into precious metals on expectations demand will gain partly as new exchange- traded funds make it easier to own bullion. They're also buying gold on speculation the U.S. may allow the dollar to weaken, boosting the metal's appeal as an alternate investment.

``Gold should be able to sustain its rise after silver's sudden jump,'' Hiroyuki Kikukawa, deputy general manager of research at brokerage Nihon Unicom Corp. who has a ``buy'' rating on gold for next week, said in Tokyo today. ``If the dollar takes a big dip, we may see gold head towards to $600.''

more...

[UpInArms]

34. Metals reach new highs

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060330/bs_nm/markets_precious_dc

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Records tumbled in precious metals markets on Thursday as gold raced to a new 25-year peak, platinum hit a record high and silver spiked to its highest in more than 22 years.

Traders said fund managers pumped more money into commodities before the end of the quarter, further feeding a long-running bull market.

"We had a good showing yesterday in gold and silver and they continued to rally today on fund buying and short covering," said a broker at a futures commission merchant in New York.

<snip>

Precious metals garnered support also from technical buying, strong base metals and a softer dollar, with prices seen heading toward their next big upside targets.

"We have multiyear highs and it's driven by investors' interest in commodities. I think funds are happy to have a strong quarter-end close for all these commodities," said a precious metals dealer in London.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Amex CEO says silver ETF may trade next week: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B06E03611%2D2F3E%2D4E1B%2DA30A%2D4495D4E11E7A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Neal Wolkoff, chief executive of the American Stock Exchange, said a silver ETF from Barclays Global Investors may begin trading as soon as next week pending regulatory approval, according to a Bloomberg News report. Silver prices are up nearly 60% over the past year and could see a further boost once the ETF lists, the report said.

[UpInArms]

56. June Gold @ $588.30 oz - May Silver @ $11.58 oz - May Copper @ $2.503 lb

9:44 AM ET 3/31/06 JUNE GOLD FALLS $3.50 TO $588.30/OZ IN NY AFTER $591 HIGH

9:44 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY SILVER FALLS 8C TO $11.58/OZ IN MORNING TRADING

9:44 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY COPPER RISES 1.85C TO A NEW RECORD OF $2.503/LB

[UpInArms]

74. June Gold @ $587 oz - May Silver @ $11.47 oz - May Copper @ $2.462 lb

11:46 AM ET 3/31/06 JUNE GOLD FALLS $4.80 TO $587/OZ IN AFTERNOON DEALINGS

11:46 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY SILVER DOWN 19C, OR 1.6%, AT $11.47/OZ

11:46 AM ET 3/31/06 MAY COPPER DOWN 2.25C TO $2.462/LB AFTER A $2.51 RECORD HIGH

[ozymandius]

7. Economy gets good news and bad news

WASHINGTON — U.S. corporate profits surged at the fastest pace in four years during the final months of 2005, but inflation also jumped as the nation grappled with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the government said Thursday.

Businesses enjoyed a 13.8% increase in after-tax profits in the fourth quarter of 2005, a sharp rebound from the 4.3% decline in the previous quarter, the Commerce Department said. The pace of growth was the fastest since an 18.1% rise in late 2001.

In addition, a special inflation measure based on actual spending patterns, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose faster than expected. Commerce's index of consumer inflation, excluding food and energy, was revised to a 2.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005, from an earlier 2.1% estimate. That was far higher than the 1.4% rate of the previous quarter.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, called the report a case of good news, bad news. On the plus side, corporations are flush with cash and likely to use some of that money for capital spending. On the downside, higher inflation could be a danger sign for the Federal Reserve as it debates whether to continue raising interest rates.

more...

[54anickel]

14. Actually that's bad news and more bad news for working Murka.

Your pay raises, should you be lucky enough to still have a job, are being routed to corporate profits while everything you purchase is going up in price. As far as that "flush with cash and likely to use some of that money for capital spending" - HAHAHAHA!!! We've been hearing that for years now, on the cusp, time to pass the baton, yada, yada, yada. What have they been doing with the money? M&A (just wonderful for job creation - NOT) and stock buybacks. :eyes:

[AnneD]

61. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I was thinking this morning when I was brushing my teeth (A prime thought time, second only to a long lot soak....OK that might have been an over share). I was thinking about "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." This admin has managed to take way too many lives, both here and abroad. Our liberty was curtailed with the passage of the Patriot Act (now there is a misnomer if there ever was one). And frankly my supply of happiness has been running low. Raises in rent and crime are going to be forcing us to move again into an even smaller place to stay within our budget.

Hubby was denied a promotion and we are certain that it is based on discrimination. One supervisor said he didn't have some paperwork in and they are separate entity from the main HQ across the street. They said to go to HR to get it, and yet HR said all the supervisor had to do was call HR and they would have mailed it and that they ARE all one company. I won't even go into the racial make up of those chosen, but there was not much colour there. I don't know what language Hubby was muttering in, but he was not happy. Many of his coworkers are upset too and have been encouraging him to speak up. But we know what happens anymore when one speaks up.:eyes:

Now this is an international hospital facility and Hubby speaks fluent German, Japanese, Russian, English, Hindi, Urdu (and a host of other Indian dialects) and is learning Arabic and Spanish. Now he did not learn all of these in a classroom so he doesn't have a degree (the degree is in nuclear science applications)-but if you don't speak the language-he is the one you want to help you. Now, you would think that would be an asset you would want to retain and say, pay more than $21k a year to do that.

So instead of being a security supervisor at an international hospital facility....he is now listening to the Norwegian Cruise lines. They are actively recruiting him (the recruiter all but wet himself when hubby started ticking off his languages and his security experience). Hubby had already applied for FBI and CIA as a linguist but was turned down outright. I thought that was very dumb on their part...but then what do I know, right. His talents may not be good enough for HS but Norwegian is scrambling to get a offer to him. :eyes: Well we will see. It sounds good so far.

But until that ship comes in.... here we are, downsizing again rather than living beyond our means and trying to save for retirement. Did I say how much I HATE this Bush economy. They have come close to stealing my happiness too.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears...

[Matariki]

84. Your husband's employers have their heads up their asses

to undervalue his obvious talents. He however, should take responsibility and offer his incredible talent to a company that will appreciate him properly.

[ozymandius]

8. TOM WALSH: Disastrous strike can be avoided

So what if Delphi Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steve Miller files a motion in bankruptcy court today, as expected, asking for permission to void Delphi's labor contracts?

So what if UAW leaders threaten a strike that could destroy Delphi and cripple its biggest customer, General Motors Corp.?

I repeat: Relax, because until the last moment before the clock strikes 12 -- and we're not there yet -- UAW leaders must raise a ruckus to show rank-and-file workers that they are squeezing every possible penny out of Delphi and GM.

But union leaders will not strike Delphi. Here's why:

more...

[ozymandius]

9. Treasurys sell off after revised GDP

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed sharply lower Thursday, sending the benchmark yield to a fresh 21-month high, after the Commerce Department reported an upward revision to the nation's economic growth in the last quarter of 2005.

The fixed-income market has been eager for evidence of economic slowing to help convince the Federal Reserve to become less aggressive on interest rates, but the GDP report wasn't helpful on that score.

-cut-

The fixed-income market abhors inflation because it eats into the value of bonds.

"These numbers today, plus the comments by the Fed, are still pointing to more increases by the Federal Open Market Committee in the coming months," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan.

more...

[UpInArms]

96. Treasurys end higher; benchmark yield up 10% in quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEA0ECBB3%2DECB4%2D4197%2D8792%2D98F30B981ADB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed with a tiny gain Friday, contrasting with some heavy sell-offs earlier in the week, after investors failed to react much to strong economic data or remarks from a Fed official that suggested a possible speedy halt to interest rate increases. The 10-year Treasury benchmark note rose 1/32 to close at 97-8/32 with a yield ($TNX 48.53, -0.02, 0.0% ) of 4.851%. During the first quarter the yield rose 10.4%, as prices dropped under the pressures of strong data, heavy supply, and rising U.S. and foreign interest rates.

[ozymandius]

10. Stocks on inflation, oil watch again

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Investors will be on inflation watch again Friday, as the direction of trading on the last day of the quarter could be set by the latest economic readings.

Stock futures were down in early trading, indicating a lower open for U.S. stocks following Thursday's sell-off on a higher than expected inflation reading in the final fourth quarter gross domestic product reading. Oil, which was mixed in early trading Friday, also hit stocks by closing Thursday near a two-month high.

At 8:30 a.m. ET the government is set to release its personal spending and income report, which includes the Commerce Department's latest reading on prices being paid by consumers.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/31/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[ozymandius]

11. GMAC sale may not end junk status

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The financial challenges for General Motors' GMAC finance unit may not go away, even if a majority stake in the operation is sold, as is widely expected.

Embattled GM (Research) announced last fall that it was looking at a possible sale of its most profitable unit in order to restore its credit rating to investment grade. The parent automaker's junk bond status is what caused GMAC to also fall into junk bond status last year. That in turn has limited GMAC's access to the low-cost capital that it's used to make loans in the past.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that GM is close to selling a majority stake in GMAC to an investor group led by Cerberus Capital Management. The paper reported that GM recently settled upon the broad structure of an $11 billion deal for 51 percent of GMAC with Cerberus, a New York hedge fund and private-equity group.

more...

[54anickel]

15. Biting the Hand that Feeds you

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff033006.html

This week, as statistics revealed that China has surpassed Japan as the world's largest holder of foreign reserves, the U.S. Congress continues to threaten China with 27% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The move, which is akin to a cornered gunman turning the pistol on himself and threatening to pull the trigger, reveals the extent to which American politicians fail to comprehend the true nature of the current Sino-U.S relationship.

In desperate need of capital, America is hardly in a position to insult those providing it, or dictate the terms by which they do so. However, the latest tough talk on China comes shortly after Congressional action which blocked key purchases of American assets by foreign interests. Such posturing sends a very dangerous message to our creditors. If as a nation we have decided to sell off our cows to pay for imported milk, we can not complain when our trading partners actually show up to collect the animals.

For a nation so dependant on the kindness of strangers, it is amazing just how arrogantly we treat them. There were no valid reasons to block Chinese owned CNOOC from acquiring US-based Unocal, especially considering that 80% of the latter's assets were outside the U.S. The same holds true for blocking DP World's proposed acquisition of various U.S. port facilities, especially since the subject ports were already foreign-owned to begin with. Our failure to allow the deal appears to have been racially motivated; hardly the message we want to send our Middle-East allies.

ARRRGH!!! Why does no one bother to point out HOW it was done outside of proper procedures, the cronyism involved, the piss-poor investigation as this was railroaded through! No, they all use the race/xenophobic card right away. Was that a part of it? Sure it was for some people, but there are other, more legitimate reasons.

As a result of the unprecedented foreign-financed consumption binge in the U.S., it is likely that nearly every major U.S. asset will ultimately pass into foreign control, including most companies in the S&P 500 and trophy properties in major U.S. cities. As America lacks the industrial capacity necessary to redeem its IOU's with actual consumer goods, access to capital goods and domestic assets is all that gives its currency value. Restrictions on the ability to acquire such assets will diminish foreign interest in accepting dollars in exchange for exports, and will dissuade foreign governments from holding huge reserves of dollars that they cannot hope to spend.

more...

[54anickel]

16. *@?#»! Bond Trading

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2006/IO+April+2006.htm

Like oil and water, politicians and the financial markets don’t always mix, and there have been some memorable historical examples. 1896 presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan, for instance, railed against Wall Street’s “cross of gold” and decades later FDR threatened “to drive the money changers out of the temple.” More recently and perhaps indicative of the changing times, Bill Clinton shifted his venom from a Biblical reference to one closer to the linguistic gutter when he promised that his budget wasn’t going to be “held hostage to some *@?#»! bond traders.” I think I know what he means since my budget has been hostage to *@?#»! bond trading for over 30 years now, although I suppose I would have to replace the *@?#»! with xxoooxxoo’s to be honest about it. While my respect for George W. Bush knows many bounds, I must admit that he and the bond market appear to be much closer than Bill C. and bonds ever were. That’s because W is and has been a tireless promoter of the globalization of democracy, and while he may not know the difference between a Bund and a bond, his two-barreled philosophy emphasizing democracy and the globe has prevailed in the financial markets for at least the past six years now. Actually, trade has quickened its pace ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the follow-up ascendancy of the BRICs with finance following in lockstep, such that the global bond and stock markets now exceed a guesstimated total of $60 trillion as compared to $25 trillion only a decade ago. And while “democracy” hasn’t totally permeated the global financial markets (much like the resistance Bush has run into in selected geographical hotspots) it has made unimaginable inroads in the United States. CDOs, CDSs, CDXs, CLOs, tranchettes of any of these, as well as countless funny money derivatives in our unique and wondrous mortgage market are but examples of what has assisted the common U.S. citizen to now command an interest rate close to that paid by the titans of corporate America. Andy Jackson, champion of the commoner, would approve I suppose, even if his administration had been held hostage to those *@?#»! bond traders!

My point in politicizing my profession, which I have no outward self interest in doing, is to lay the groundwork for an analysis of today’s new and perhaps improved bond market and to describe PIMCO’s changing role within it. As clients, you no doubt are wondering whether we can keep on keeping on in the face of the growing competition and lowered returns that globalization and in turn the democratization of credit have engendered. Both of these trends, for instance, bring the dreaded dragon image of hedge funds to mind with perhaps the logical query – how are WE to compete with THEM? They charge fees, which supposedly allow them to skim prize talent off the top, and they utilize leverage while scrambling amongst a multitude of markets that old-line bond managers don’t imitate. But if hedge funds are the most ferocious dragon in the financial world of globalization they are by no means the only new predator. Foreign central banks made famous and in fact prosperous by the miracles of globalization are the symbolic elephants of our new financial marketplace, and while they may stampede or charge only infrequently, they have stripped the bond market jungle of its formerly “alpha rich” vegetation and trampled the high grass such that today’s global yields are but a wisp of their former selves. To further complicate the analysis, their investment decisions are in many cases “non-economic” – stressing development at home as compared to yields abroad as the basis for bond investment. In addition, profit-incented/yield-starved foreign individual investors have joined hedge funds and the PIMCOs of the marketplace in what has been called the Yen carry trade, substituting 0% yields in Japan for double-digit rates in emerging market bonds and currencies, high single-digits in spread product, and in turn “settling” for a mere 400-500 basis point pickup in good old fashioned U.S. Treasuries. The universe of bond managers subject to Bill Clinton’s invective it seems, has changed over the past five years. He’d now be swearing in almost every embassy and at millions of foreign citizens turned bond traders no matter which way he looked. The big “players” of bond trading past, such as banks, insurance companies, pension/mutual funds, and investment management companies which serve as their proxies, have been replaced or at least asked to take a seat on the bench in deference to the new first string. But whether first or second string, my point is that there are a multitude of players now where once in our relative innocence there were but a few. Competition is fierce to not only get a hand on the ball but to prove that a player can continue to score alpha-points.

As a consequence, the final game/total return scores these days are much lower than they used to be, not just because of the aggressive and competitive offenses but because as a consequence a lot of the air, yield and alpha has been let out of the ball as rates have declined worldwide – conundrum or no conundrum. Bond and asset managers alike (and PIMCO fits both descriptions) are faced with global real interest rate valuations capped at 2% in major markets, and yield spreads almost everywhere that suggest maximum future bond returns of 5-6%. Equity prospects are not much better except in high growth export dominated economies. Commodities and real estate of course are legitimate growth and inflation sensitive asset classes, and due to higher risk and in the case of commodities, growth of the BRICs, these assets will logically provide higher returns over the long term. My point, however, is to emphasize that the democratization and globalization of trade and therefore credit has now presented investors with a rather diminished array of future returns upon which to feast. That there are scores of growing and still ravenous diners at the table makes the outcome even more troublesome.

All right Gross, to the point please – how is PIMCO going to compete against all these new *@?#»! bond traders? Well, in part, I’ll take sort of a nonchalant Warren Buffett late 90’s approach to all this. Dot Coms? “Let ‘em come and mostly go,” he suggested because in part he didn’t have the inclination to identify the few Amazons or Googles in a high-risk/high-priced market. We all know the result. But the current low level of government yields is not a dot com bubble as long as globalization and democratization of credit persist. These trends are likely to be with us as long as the U.S. trade deficit/Asian mercantilistic growth push continues, and if the substitution of labor for capital continues to dominate global growth. So a total boycott of bonds like Buffett boycotted dot coms is not to my mind a profitable response. Buffett after all, still owned lots of stocks in the late 90s. But Buffett’s assessment of high prices in dot coms has its parallels in bondland even if one accepts the new reality of globalization and the redistribution of wealth and reserves – which PIMCO most assuredly does. When one can buy a U.S. agency guaranteed FNMA mortgage at a higher yield than almost all emerging market debt, then there exists an irrational pricing of credit. In general, almost all risk and associated “premia” are now trading at illogically low levels and as Alan Greenspan warned just months ago, history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. “Periods of relative stability” in fact, “often engender unrealistic expectations of permanence and at times lead to financial excess and economic stress,” he said.

snip>

A similar comparison can be justified when viewing dollar and non-dollar denominated assets no matter whether your index is U.S. centric or global in nature. With the U.S. dollar significantly overvalued, the blanket acceptance of an index amount of dollar denominated assets in order to mimic risk in index space would seem to be accepting an excessive amount of risk in absolute global purchasing power space. The fact that foreign currencies are high beta assets in index space and in fact are not part of most indices at all, limits the amount of non-dollar exposure a portfolio manager or a plan sponsor is willing to assume. But the real long-term risk in my opinion, is in holding dollars, and if so, absolute returns in global purchasing power will suffer if they are held.

more...

[54anickel]

18. Shocks Seen in New Math for Pensions

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/31/business/31pension.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The board that writes accounting rules for American business is proposing a new method of reporting pension obligations that is likely to show that many companies have a lot more debt than was obvious before.

In some cases, particularly at old industrial companies like automakers, the newly disclosed obligations are likely to be so large that they will wipe out the net worth of the company.

The panel, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, said the new method, which it plans to issue today for public comment, would address a widespread complaint about the current pension accounting method: that it exposes shareholders and employees to billions of dollars in risks that they cannot easily see or evaluate. The new accounting rule would also apply to retirees' health plans and other benefits.

snip>

"Old industrial, old economy companies with heavily unionized work forces" would be affected most sharply by the new rule, said Janet Pegg, an accounting analyst with Bear, Stearns. A recent report by Ms. Pegg and other Bear, Stearns analysts found that the companies with the biggest balance-sheet changes were likely to include General Motors, Ford, Verizon, BellSouth and General Electric.

snip to treading lightly>

The rule would not have any effect on corporate profits, only on the balance sheets. The accounting board plans to make additional pension accounting changes after this one takes effect. Those are expected to affect the bottom line and could easily be more contentious.

[UpInArms]

19. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.73 Change +0.32 (+0.36%)

Markets Remain Volatile As Ranges Narrow

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-technicals/7690-markets-remain-volatile-as-ranges.html

EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to push the pair above 1.2115, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see EUR/USD head toward 1.2227, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and target offers around 1.2226, a level marked by the January 25 daily high. However in case dollar longs manage to push the pair below 1.2000 handle, a further advance by the dollar longs will most likely see the pair head lower target euro offers around 1.1932, a level marked by the December 28 daily high and with further advance on the part of the dollar trader seeing the pair head below 1.1900 figure and target bids around 1.1864, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring Euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to consolidate within a tight range as USD/JPY rested in top of the bids around 117.35, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally. A further move on the part of the yen longs will most likely see USD/JPY head lower and target 116.00 figure, a level defended by the January 17 daily high at 115.93. A further move to the downside will most likely see USD/JPY extending its decline toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle, a level protected by the 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and 200-day SMA at 114.90. However in case greenback longs manage to push the pair back above 118.00, , a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and target yen offers around 118.17, a level marked by the December 30 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its gains above 119.00 figure and target offers around 119.39, a level established by the February 3 daily high. Indicators are favoring yen bulls with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. Prestowitz urges Koizumi to call for 'Plaza Accord II' at G-8

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060328/kyodo/d8gki7284.html

(Kyodo) _ Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi should take the lead at a Group of Eight meeting in calling for a "Plaza Accord II," former U.S. trade negotiator Clyde Prestowitz said Tuesday.
"We all need to cooperate on diminishing the role of the dollar in international trade," said Prestowitz, now the president of the Economic Strategy Institute which he founded, at a lecture at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan.

Even though Koizumi is going to step down from the premiership in September, he is in a good position to suggest that G-8 leaders adopt a new Plaza Accord to help reduce current global economic imbalances similar to those seen in the mid-1980s, when the first accord was struck, Prestowitz said.

The 1985 Plaza Accord was signed by the then Group of Five economic powers to coordinate foreign exchange policies. Troubled by a large trade deficit, particularly with Japan, the United States under the administration of President Ronald Reagan aimed to bring down the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Time for Gulf economies to increase gold reserves

Dr. Eckart Woertz is the Economics Program Manager at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_id=23341

There is no doubt that gold is regaining its luster as an asset class. After it has been in a bear market for two decades, with prices plummeting nearly as low as $250 in 2001, its dollar price has more than doubled within four years and stays now well above $500. The women of India and the Middle East, who represent the two most important demand factors in the world gold market, have thus outperformed the sophisticated hedge funds of Wall Street with a very basic "gold, buy and hold" strategy. The performance of gold-mining stocks is even more impressive: The HUI index of gold mining stocks rose from 35 to more than 300 in the same period.

There are ample reasons for this price hike: The U.S. trade deficit has spiraled out of control. Compared to its economic base, the accumulated debt in U.S. dollars has become too high to be effectively repaid; it will either default or will more likely be inflated to such an extent that it won't hurt to "pay" it back. Alan Greenspan's successor as governor of the Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, has made this sufficiently clear when he said that the Fed would rather start the "electronic printing press" and let rain down free "helicopter money" on the people than face deflationary shocks. Additionally, the market has become increasingly aware of the huge supply deficit in the gold market. According to Frank Veneroso (2001), who challenges the official statistics of the World Gold Council, mine production only accounts for roughly half of the annual demand and is declining. Apart from scrap supplies, the most important filling of the gap comes from the central banks, which sell and lease gold into the market. The latter activity is especially tricky and has led to a huge derivative short position in the gold market: Western central banks mainly lease gold to commercial banks, which sell it into the market, the central banks earn a lease rate and the commercial banks invest the proceedings of the sales in higher-yielding assets like bonds, for example. Everybody could be happy, but there is one problem: the gold still exists as an asset on the books of the central banks and as a liability on the books of commercial banks or hedge funds, while the actual physical gold has left the vaults a long time ago and now hangs around the necks of the women of the world, who are the "ultimate longs" in the market without even knowing it. It is inconceivable that this short position can be covered at current prices and the market seems to reckon that at some point the central banks won't be able to cover the supply gap because they will run out of gold or won't be willing to sell more of one of their most valuable assets. First signs in that direction are already discernible: An increasing number of central banks like Russia, China and Argentina are actually buyers of gold in order to diversify their currency reserves and Western central banks appear to be increasingly reluctant to enact further sales (e.g. Germany) or have sold or leased out most of their gold (e.g. England and Portugal). Thus, apart from the inflation fears and the dollar weakness, the supply gap and the derivative short position is the third main driver of the gold price rally of recent years. These underpinning fundamentals are so strong that one can safely assume that we are still at the beginning of a secular price rise rather than at its end. In fact, the accompanying boom in commodity and oil prices and unstable political developments remind one of the gold price rally of the 1970s, when gold prices rose more than twenty-fold from $35 to $850.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb

Individuals in the Gulf countries seem to be well-prepared for these developments, as they are the second-most important buyers of gold in the world after India, but the central banks of the region have not shown the same amount of foresight yet. Their gold reserves are very low, both on an absolute and a relative level. Four countries - the U.A.E., Oman, Qatar and Bahrain - have sold out nearly all of their gold while Kuwait has leased out its complete reserves with uneasy prospects of return, should third parties default. This is all the more astonishing as gold constitutes a superb hedge against inflation and dollar weakness and could thus mitigate the danger of being short-changed by selling precious oil for rapidly devaluing paper dollar receipts. A minimum rate of gold reserves like the European Central Bank (ECB) stipulates for its members (15 percent) and an increase of gold reserves like Russia recently announced (from five to 10 percent) certainly would be an advisable policy for the Gulf countries. But so far they seem to have unshakable trust in the U.S. dollar. After initial attempts at currency diversification, OPEC countries increased their dollar holdings in 2005 again from 61 percent to 69 percent and the skyrocketing amount of U.S. treasury buying out of London has been attributed to Arab investors. This is in striking contrast to Japan and China, which have partially backed out of the dollar supporting scheme as they have kept their treasury holdings stable and refrained from buying as much as they did earlier.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Envisioning a single Asian currency

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/27/bloomberg/bxadb.php#

The Asian Development Bank said Monday that it was working toward creating an index of currencies similar to the European Currency Unit that preceded the euro, to help integrate the region's financial markets.

The lender is working on the "technical details" of the Asian Currency Unit, which it aims to introduce "in the first half of this year," said Pradumna Rana, senior adviser in the bank's office of regional economic integration.

"It is an index that we will be posting on our Web site, which will enable countries to monitor movements of currencies among themselves, and collectively with nonregional currencies," Rana said.

"There have been efforts to promote monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia after the financial crisis," and the Asian Currency Unit "is part of those efforts."

The idea of a shared currency for Asia and of integrating the region's economies came about after the financial crisis of 1997-98 and has been backed by the development bank's president, Haruhiko Kuroda, and his predecessor, Tadao Chino, as long-term goals.

more...

[UpInArms]

20. China's Shenzhen Bank says ex-chairman detained

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-31T110501Z_01_SHA224959_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-CHINA-SHENZHENBANK.XML

SHANGHAI, March 31 (Reuters) - Shenzhen Development Bank (000001.SZ: Quote, Profile, Research), in which a General Electric (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) unit is due to take a stake, said its ex-chairman had been detained by police in connection with alleged illegal loans during his term at the Chinese lender.

Shenzhen Bank, which has the highest bad-debt burden and lowest capital adequacy of China's listed lenders, said in a statement that Zhou Lin had left the bank in December 2004.

It did not elaborate further on the allegations.

"Zhou left the bank in December 2004 and has not participated in the management of the bank since," Shenzhen bank said in a statement seen on Friday.

"Our bank will help and cooperate in the investigations."

U.S. equity fund Newbridge Capital bought a controlling 17.89 percent stake of the bank in 2004 for 1.24 billion yuan ($154 million), as reported by local media.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Hedge funds flock to riskiest derivatives

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T094154Z_01_L30408338_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-CORRELATION.XML

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - European hedge funds are piling into the riskiest parts of complex structured derivatives as pressure to generate higher returns offsets concern over interest rates and record levels of mergers and acquisitions.

Dealers report a rise in sales of equity tranche protection in synthetic collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), the same investments that were hit last year following the downgrades to junk of U.S. auto makers Ford <F.N> and General Motors <GM.N>.

Sellers of CDO equity protection agree to reimburse buyers for the first 3 percent of defaults in a portfolio of up to 125 companies. The investments are lucrative because they are risky -- just one default can cause a 20 percent loss.

<snip>

Investors that sell more equity protection are said to be long correlation (i.e., they think spreads are more likely to act in a correlated way), even though the current wave of European mergers and acquisitions, impacting individual companies, makes that seem counter-intuitive.

"You might say that these moves represent a shift in fundamental views, but what you have to remember is that these are highly technical markets," said Lorenzo Isla, a strategist at Barclays Capital. "What these investors are thinking about is relative value within the CDO universe -- the fundamentals come second."

...more at link...

[54anickel]

22. 'If you start looking at them as humans, then how are you gonna kill them?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1741942,00.html

They are a publicity nightmare for the US military: an ever-growing number of veterans of the Iraq conflict who are campaigning against the war. To mark the third anniversary of the invasion this month, a group of them marched on Katrina-ravaged New Orleans. Inigo Gilmore and Teresa Smith joined them

Wednesday March 29, 2006
The Guardian


At a press conference in a cavernous Alabama warehouse, banners and posters are rolled out: "Abandon Iraq, not the Gulf coast!" A tall, white soldier steps forward in desert fatigues. "I was in Iraq when Katrina happened and I watched US citizens being washed ashore in New Orleans," he says. "War is oppression: we could be setting up hospitals right here. America is war-addicted. America is neglecting its poor."

A black reporter from a Fox TV news affiliate, visibly stunned, whispers: "Wow! That guy's pretty opinionated." Clearly such talk, even three years after the Iraq invasion, is still rare. This, after all, is the Deep South and this soldier less than a year ago was proudly serving his nation in Iraq.

The soldier was engaged in no ordinary protest. Over five days earlier this month, around 200 veterans, military families and survivors of hurricane Katrina walked 130 miles from Mobile, Alabama, to New Orleans to mark the third anniversary of the Iraq war. At its vanguard, Iraq Veterans Against the War, a group formed less than two years ago, whose very name has aroused intense hostility at the highest levels of the US military.

Mobile is a grand old southern naval town, clinging to the Gulf Coast. The stars and stripes flutter from almost every balcony as the soldiers parade through the town, surprising onlookers. As they begin their soon-to-be-familiar chants - "Bush lied, many died!" - some shout "traitor", or hurl less polite terms of abuse. Elsewhere, a black man salutes as a blonde, middle-aged woman, emerging from a supermarket car park, cries out, "Take it all the way to the White House!" and offers the peace sign.

more...

[AnneD]

65. The Romanov Dynasty

was overturned in just such a fashion. Returning troops fueled the Russian Revolution. The US flirted with socialism with the advent of the Great Depression. With the right factors in place, it could happen again. Wealth is currently flowing one way at an acelerating and alarming rate. One big economic downturn and we might see some political shock waves.

[UpInArms]

23. (Corporate) Profits surge to 40-year high

I posted this last night in LBN - you can read the discussion here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2198618&mesg_id=2198618

but I also thought it should go in this SMW thread

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC4257910%2D8351%2D437A%2D8C00%2DE4CF3B782091%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. corporate profits have increased 21.3% in the past year and now account for the largest share of national income in 40 years, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Strong productivity gains and subdued wage growth boosted before-tax profits to 11.6% of national income in the fourth quarter of 2005, the biggest share since the summer of 1966. See full story.

For all of 2005, before-tax profits totaled $1.35 trillion, up from $1.16 trillion in 2004 and just $767 billion in 2001.

Meanwhile, the share of national income going to wage and salary workers has fallen to 56.9%. Except for a brief period in 1997, that's the lowest share for labor income since 1966.

<snip>

Profits have been so high because almost all of the benefits from productivity improvements are flowing to the owners of capital rather than to the workers.

...more...

[fasttense]

29. Does anyone else see the resemblance to 1928?

Seems our economy is marching to the same beat it did in the roaring 20s. I wonder what our 1929 is going to look like?

[UpInArms]

35. from the Timeline of the Great Depression

http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm

1928

The construction boom is over.

Farmers' share of the national income has dropped from 15 to 9 percent since 1920.

Between May 1928 and September 1929, the average prices of stocks will rise 40 percent. Trading will mushroom from 2-3 million shares per day to over 5 million. The boom is largely artificial.

[AnneD]

66. Heads are bumping

all over the thread today reaching for that same shiney coin...:hi:

[Roland99]

70. EPI: Gross domestic income: profit growth swamps labor income

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_20060330

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) today show that in the fourth quarter of 2005 corporate profits claimed the largest share of gross domestic income (GDI) in 37 years.1 The last time profits claimed this large a share of GDI was in the 4th quarter of 1968 (see Figure A ). Since the last business cycle peak (the first quarter of 2001), the share of GDI going to corporate profits has risen by 3.9 percentage points, while the share going to labor compensation has fallen by 1.4 percentage points.




Within the corporate sector, where all income is classified as accruing to either capital (profits plus net interest) or labor (wages plus benefits), the picture is even starker: labor's share of corporate income has fallen by 5.6 percentage points, and capital income's share rose by the same amount. Corporate profits' share rose by 7.8 percentage points, while net interest payments shrank by 2.2 percentage points. This rise in corporate profits' share is, by far, the largest that has occurred 19 quarters after a business cycle peak since World War II, and it is about eight times as large as the average shift that has characterized previous recoveries (see Figure B ). If these shares had remained constant, labor incomes as an aggregate would be $346 billion higher today.




While productivity growth has been strong during the current recovery (averaging annual growth of 3.5%), the fruits of this growth have disproportionately flowed to profits instead of wages and benefits. This strong productivity growth provides the potential to generate broad-based increases in American living standards, but, so far corporate profits have been the only clear winner.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[UpInArms]

26. ...

:D

:hi:

[54anickel]

27. Welcome to DU and the SMW thread, extraterrestrial....

:hi:

[Roland99]

46. How does one get a deleted message in this thread??

[ozymandius]

53. The post must have run afoul of Admin's approved, reliable sites.

Posts have been removed recently because the material has come from websites that are not considered reliable conduits for information. Even if the material in question is written by someone who is reliable - the website that conveys that information sullies its veracity.

[UpInArms]

25. 90,000 Americans die from hospital infections each year

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=health&id=4039258

(3/30/06) - When he entered the hospital in February 2004, Mark Bennett was a vibrant 88-year-old with little more than a bad cough. Within a few days, his leg had swelled and become discolored. Within four months, he was dead.
It turns out that hospital personnel had passed on at least six different bacterial infections, inducing drug-resistant strains, to Bennett, according to his son, Michael Bennett.

"This was passed to him through negligence, and he died because of it," Bennett said. "He was gentle, yet strong, just a great human being."

Each year, more than 2 million people in the United States acquire an infection during a hospital stay, and an estimated 90,000 people die from them -- more than from AIDS, breast cancer and auto accidents combined.

"If 110 people were dying daily from the bird flu, I think we'd be calling this an epidemic," said Marc Volavaka of the Pennsylvania Health Cost Containment Council.

The danger is growing worse because many hospital-acquired infections can no longer be treated with traditional antibiotics. Experts, however, say these infections are almost always preventable.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Study shrugs off prayer's power to heal

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-03-30-prayer-study_x.htm

Some say prayer can move mountains. But can anyone prove it helps heart patients sail through surgery? Researchers from six hospitals across the USA set out to try.

In the largest study to examine the effects of this profoundly personal activity, researchers found that asking strangers to pray for heart-bypass patients had no effect on their recovery. In fact, patients who were told that study volunteers were praying for them were actually more likely to suffer a medical complication. (Related: Study Q&A)

Earlier studies have produced mixed results on the effects of praying for others. Dean Marek, a Catholic chaplain at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., who helped supervise the study, says the findings won't talk people out of asking God to help the people they love.

"What the study might do is help people more on the deeper realities of the meaning of prayer," he says.

While prayer takes many forms, researchers focused on a type whose outcome can be measured: praying that surgical patients would recover quickly without complications. They did not study the effects of praying for oneself, which past research has shown to have a relaxing effect. Study patients and their families also could pray for their recovery.

...more...

[AnneD]

83. The best advice in the article...

'you want to be where the Nurses want to be'.;) Ask about staffing levels-the lower the Nurse to patient ratio-the better your chances of survival and this has been documented in countless studies but still not acted on. Complain to the Admin if you think the staff has too much of a load and couldn't give you the care you need (heaven knows they don't listen to us).Ask about the hospitals unexpected incidence numbers (that is a euphemism for mortality, for example someone that went in to have a baby and then died).

Noscomial infection are a tough and growing problem. I always gel in and gel out (waterless cleaner) of a patients room. I would hate to be cultured. All I know is I have an immune system to beat the band.


Oh and about that power of prayer for healing......it won't replace a good Doc or treatment like some in the Bush admin would have you believe....but I believe it works wonders for some(and have seen faith in action). We are spiritual and physical beings. Sometime we forget we need to treat both.

[UpInArms]

28. Freddie sees lower 2005 income, net could change

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T125622Z_01_N31191831_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIE-UPDATE-3.XML

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac, still recovering from a 2003 accounting scandal, on Friday said an estimate of the capital it held at year-end implied 2005 net income of $2.5 billion, down nearly 11 percent from 2004.

But profits will be cut by $200 million due to adjustments, and could change materially before the mortgage funding company posts final 2005 results in May, Freddie Mac <FRE.N> said.

In a preliminary look at its 2005 business, Freddie said its total mortgage portfolio grew 12 percent to about $1.7 trillion and its share of the mortgage securitization market run by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) rose to 45 percent from 41 percent in 2004.

<snip>

Freddie's earnings have not been current since accounting problems that led to a $5 billion profit restatement and management overhaul. Earlier this month, the company said it would delay by two months the release of quarterly and full-year 2005 results to implement an accounting change.

<snip>

But final results could differ materially from the profit implied by its regulatory core capital, the company said. Further, the implied net income does not include the impact of the accounting change announced earlier this month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Delphi to Ask Judge to Cancel Union Deals

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1789690&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312&business=true

DETROIT Mar 31, 2006 (AP)— Delphi Corp., the nation's leading auto-parts supplier, appeared poised Friday to ask a judge to cancel its union contracts, after months of unsuccessfully trying to negotiate a wage decrease for its 34,000 U.S. hourly workers.

The move would send shudders through an already ailing U.S. auto industry, particularly General Motors and other automakers who rely on the Troy, Mich.-based supplier.

Delphi had set a deadline of Thursday to reach an agreement to lower wages for its blue-collar workers. There was no word early Friday that the United Auto Workers and GM had agreed to Delphi's latest wage proposal.

In a message on its Web site Thursday, the UAW said Delphi would file motions to void its contracts Friday morning. Delphi spokesman Lindsey Williams said the company would not comment on that posting.

<snip>

But the UAW, which represents the vast majority of Delphi's hourly workers, reacted angrily this week to Delphi's latest proposal, which called for lowering production workers' wages from $27 an hour to $16.50 an hour in 2007. Skilled workers' wages would fall from $30 an hour to $24. Local union leaders have said the UAW would not take the deal to its members for a required vote.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. Delphi seeks to void labor contracts, cut 8,500 jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-31T143144Z_01_WAD000118_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-LABOR-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, March 31 (Reuters) - Auto parts maker Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) said it will move on Friday to void its U.S. labor contracts and unprofitable parts deals with former parent General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), and that it will shed up to 8,500 salaried workers and cut its global plant base by a third.

Delphi, which filed for bankruptcy protection last October, also said it would eliminate up to 40 percent of its corporate officers as it exits numerous noncore businesses.

The supplier said it expects to sell or close one-third of its global manufacturing sites by 2008 to focus on profitable product areas including electronics, navigation and safety. It identified only eight U.S. manufacturing sites as core.

...more...

Now where do you think those manufacturing sites might be? :eyes:

[ozymandius]

78. I was just about to post this. Because it is very serious business.

First of all, look at Tom Walsh's column in post #8. He says they will not strike. However, I think he's wrong. Why? Because they have nothing to lose from a strike if Delphi's plan goes forth. I do acknowledge that Delphi's announcement could be a scare tactic.

I do agree with Mr. Walsh in that a strike would be disastrous for GM. The peripheral consequences look to bleed on anyone who has exposure to GM, Delphi and other auto manufacturers.

What would a GM bankruptcy look like?

Even as GM sells off assets to raise cash reserves, a handful of investors are betting that the company will eventually file for bankruptcy protection. Distressed debt investor Marty Whitman, founder of the Third Avenue Funds, is one of them.

-cut-

In a Chapter 11 proceeding, he said, because "GM is so big and important for the U.S. economy, heaven and high earth would be moved to preserve some equity for existing GM shareholders."

-cut-

Just the suggestion of a GM bankruptcy is a matter of deep concern over at Ford.

In a thinly veiled reference to GM, Ford warned shareholders recently that it could be hurt if one of its major competitors files for bankruptcy protection. Ford said a bankrupt competitor could gain a significant advantage since it could negotiate cheaper labor contracts.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/03/detroit_sunset.html

EDIT: and then there's this

Summary of Effects, Under Optimistic Scenario, for US and Canada

The AEG report, which is based on an analysis of Delphi’s reorganization plans, and the structure of the North American automobile industry, indicates that the likely net impact in the year 2007 alone, under the optimistic scenario, would be approximately the following:

Delphi’s employment in the U.S. and Canada will fall by 12,500 from 50,600 to 37,950. Delphi has announced plans to close 11 plants and shrink its business by 20%.

The impact on auto manufacturers and Delphi’s suppliers will be substantial. The net impact, in terms of lost earnings, on auto manufacturers will be $4.6 billion, and the net cost to its suppliers will be $3.2 billion.

The total cost to GM, Delphi’s largest customer and holder of a contingent liability on its pension fund, will be close to $2.5 billion. Delphi, which was organized in 1995 as GM’s parts division, was spun-off from its parent company in May of 1999. The agreement between the two companies, however, left them intricately linked as Delphi adopted its parent’s labor contracts and GM had pension and benefit obligations to Delphi’s employees.

“We believe General Motors can and will survive the Delphi bankruptcy, if its restructuring results in an emergence from bankruptcy in 2007 and GM absorbing about $1 billion in underfunded pension obligations,” said Patrick L. Anderson; “However, a liquidation of Delphi would be very dangerous for GM.”

much more...

http://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/modules.php?name=Content&pa=display_aeg&doc_ID=1792

[UpInArms]

92. Delphi plans to close, sell 21 U.S. plants

Those workers have nothing to lose if they go on strike - and note that I said the plants that would close would be in the US - here they are:

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T201437Z_01_N31223521_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-FACTBOX.XML

<snipping to the plants to be closed>

CORE MANUFACTURING SITES (BY STATE):

INDIANA - Kokomo

MICHIGAN - Grand Rapids

MISSISSIPPI - Brookhaven, Clinton

NEW YORK - Lockport, Rochester

OHIO - Vandalia, Warren

U.S. UNION SITES TO BE SOLD OR CLOSED (BY STATE):

ALABAMA - Athens, Cottondale, Gadsden

GEORGIA - Fitzgerald

INDIANA - Anderson

MICHIGAN - Adrian, Coopersville, Flint, Saginaw (E&C) and Saginaw (Steering)

MISSISSIPPI - Laurel

NEW JERSEY - Brunswick

OHIO - Columbus, Home Avenue (Dayton), Kettering, Moraine, Needmore Road (Dayton) and Sandusky

TEXAS - Wichita Falls

Wisconsin - Milwaukee (E&C) and Milwaukee (E&S)

...a bit more...

(edited to bold the plants slated for sale or closure)

[UpInArms]

93. A strike at Delphi could push GM to empty-analysts

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T202131Z_01_N31371126_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-DELPHI.XML

DETROIT, March 31 (Reuters) - General Motors' Corp. <GM.N> could be forced to shut its North American operations at a cost $1 billion a week or more if a strike hits Delphi Corp., analysts said on Friday.

Bankrupt Delphi Corp. <DPHIQ.PK> asked a U.S. bankruptcy court on Friday to void its U.S. labor contracts and reject unprofitable supplier deals with GM, covering about half the automaker's North American annual purchase volume.

The United Auto Workers union (UAW) said it would be "impossible to avoid a long strike" if the court rejects its Delphi contracts and added that there was "no basis for continuing discussions."

"That's scary -- the fact that they are saying there is no reason to even negotiate now," Argus Research analyst Kevin Tynan said. "If you were to take their statement at face value, that increases the likelihood of a strike considerably."

"If it's a long, drawn-out strike, GM would face an unsustainable cash burn rate that would end up in bankruptcy," he said.

<snip>

GM, which spun off Delphi in 1999, estimates that its liability for benefits to Delphi workers ranges from $5.5 billion to $12 billion.

"I think there will be a strike, but a short one," Burnham Securities analyst David Healy said. "But any Delphi strike would shut down GM totally in a matter of days."

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. UAW: Strike threat after Delphi files to break contracts

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC230055C%2DBD69%2D43F2%2DB057%2D8D62B1BB194C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Delphi Corp.'s (DHPIQ 0.00, 0.00, 0.0% ) plan ask to a judge to toss out its labor contract Friday has killed any momentum gained from the attrition program agreed to last week among the auto parts supplier, General Motors Corp. (GM 20.73, -0.33, -1.6% ) and the union, and it "appears there is no basis for continuing discussions," according to a statement issued by the United Auto Workers. "Delphi's misuse of the bankruptcy procedure to circumvent the collective bargaining process and slash jobs and wages and drastically reduce health care, retirement and other hard-won benefits or eliminate them altogether is a travesty and a concern for every American," UAW President Ron Gettelfinger and Vice President Richard Shoemaker said in the statement. "In the event the court rejects the UAW-Delphi contract and Delphi imposes the terms of its last proposal, it appears that it will be impossible to avoid a long strike."

[UpInArms]

68. GM could be crippled by Delphi strike

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-060330gmdelphi-story,1,6626220.story?coll=chi-business-hed

General Motors Corp. depends so heavily on Delphi Corp. to supply parts for its vehicles that it cannot afford to face a Delphi strike for more than two weeks without the risk of shutting down all of GM's production, analysts say.

If union workers strike Delphi, some critical parts could run out in a matter of days, halting production at some GM plants. All of GM could grind to a halt in a week or two, said Catherine Madden of industry forecaster Global Insight.

"I don't think there's any other supplier capable of just taking over that business without impacting GM's production," Madden said. "You can't just turn that much business over to someone else."

<snip>

Unlike tires or batteries, which can fit dozens of vehicles, components like fuel injectors are designed for certain engines and can't just be plugged into others, Mike Hall, an analyst at CSM Worldwide, said.

Purchasing an injector from a new supplier could take several months to tool up to build it, order raw materials, prove it works and start production, Hall said, and Delphi supplies dozens of parts like that to GM.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Kodak accused of harming digital photo quality

http://www.eet.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=184401030

SAN FRANCISCO — A former employee has accused Eastman Kodak Co. of illegally tampering with the quality of customers' digital photos and making false advertising claims, according to a statement issued Wednesday (March 29) by the former employee's attorney.

Maya Raber, former Kodak director of engineering, filed a lawsuit in Alameda County (Calif.) Superior Court Tuesday, alleging wrongful termination by the Kodak Imaging Network and parent company Kodak. The suit claims that Raber was fired in retaliation for complaining about a Kodak project that Raber alleges deceives customers and irreversibly damages customers' photo files.

"Kodak disregarded consumers' interests in its efforts to save money," Raber said through the statement. "The plan was to hide behind the trusted Kodak brand, instead of promoting and protecting it."

<snip>

According to Raber, she was terminated when it became clear that she would continue to oppose the project.

"We can assure you that Ms. Raber's accusations are completely false," said a spokesperson for Kodak Wednesday through a statement. "We have not compressed images that are stored in the Gallery without our customers' knowledge. "We feel that Kodak has acted in a manner that is consistent with our corporate policies and ethics, and we will vigorously defend ourselves against all claims to the contrary."

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. SEC settles with ex-KPMG auditors - engaged in "highly unreasonable" condu

Tenet auditors engaged in "highly unreasonable" conduct

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE4AAA79E%2D2533%2D47A9%2DA413%2D215A4A13595A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission has settled with three former KPMG LLP auditors for their "highly unreasonable conduct" regarding Tenet Healthcare Corp.'s fiscal 2002 financial statements, officials said Thursday.

As part of the settlement, the auditors can't appear or practice before the commission as accountants, though two may apply for reinstatement in several years.

The commission settled with Clete Madden, the KPMG partner in charge of the Tenet audit; David Huffman, the KPMG senior manager on the Tenet audit, and Aron Carr, a former KPMG manager.

"By failing to perform a proper audit and then altering documents, thereby concealing their audit failures, the KPMG auditors were derelict in their most basic gatekeeping functions," said Linda Chatman Thomsen, director of the SEC's enforcement division, in a statement.

<snip>

Then, in November 2002, the Tenet audit team, led by Madden and Huffman, began altering the audit's working papers -- spending than 500 hours and changing more than 350 papers to create the false impression that the audit was complete when the report was issued, according to the SEC.

...more...

[WhiteTara]

89. that's it? Slap Slap Go and sin

no more? No prison time? But stealing a loaf of bread will get you 10 years. (okay-figure of speech-you get the idea)
Holy Moly! what is going on in this world? Where is accountablity? I watched the censure hearings and that is the answer there. No accountablity. We can just change the law to fit *co's actions and these asswipes here can destroy our economy for their greed and they have to pay a few million. Sometimes I can see a need for the death penalty; to deter this incredible greed.

[UpInArms]

38. Homeowners Beginning to Feel the Squeeze

http://cbs13.com/business/finance_story_090000519.html

(CBS) NEW YORK With interest rates on the rise, and the housing market showing signs of a downturn, homeowners are starting to feel the squeeze.

For many, the trouble started when the market was booming, and buyers flocked to interest-only loans in order to find their way into a bigger home. These interest-only loans were an attractive option while rates were low, but once the fixed term ends, monthly payments are likely to jump up to twice the previous amount.

In the worst case scenario, homeowners could end up owing more money than their home is worth. The Early Show co-anchor Harry Smith had the story of one family that is caught in the squeeze.

Meghan and Vince Jordan recently moved in to their brand new dream home in Denver, but they have one big problem — they can't get rid of their old one.

<snip>

The Jordans are highly leveraged, they have two kids, two mortgages and daycare costs. And their quandary is not unusual. Greg McBride from Bankrate.com joined The Early Show Thursday to discuss ways for homeowners to protect their financial health.

...more...

[InkAddict]

63. WOW what an opportunity!

If the Jordan's (in the article) employers jump on the outsourcing/immigration bandwagon, the * cabal can get a good two-fer deal here. So much for family "value." Result: blighted communities w/lots of new social and public/private health problems!

But, you say: No one told them to have children? :cry:
No one told them to take the job transfer just before their corporate masters downsize
(corporate bait & switch) :cry:

[UpInArms]

67. Housing Bubble Popping is "The Media's Fault"!

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2006/03/media_hype.html?campaign_id=rss_full_topix_bwdaily

While helping my colleague Peter Coy report for the week’s cover story on Buyer(and Seller) Beware: How to Navigate An Anxious Housing Market, I was stuck by the number of realtors I spoke to who were convinced that the cooling housing market was partly due to the “overblown, media hype.” One realtor from Northern New Jersey lamented: “If the press wouldn’t make such a big deal about the changes in the market, maybe the consumers wouldn’t be so reactive and the market wouldn’t be turning.”

As a member of the media, I admit we’re always hungry for an eye-catching story, especially in this voracious content-eating new media world. But, hey--it’s not like we make the statistics up. We just report them.

When new home sales drop, inventory of unsold homes goes up and median home prices fall, it isn’t hard to connect the dots and report that the housing market is headed for “a decline of several years that gradually brings back values to the long-term trend,” as Michael Mandel points out in the cover story commentary.

...more...

Welcome to *Co's Murka! Everything is someone else's fault! Blame the messenger for everything you don't like! Ignore those numbers! They mean NOTHING! Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

[AnneD]

80. Just because you say it is so doesn't make it so....

For way too long media covering economics has been little more than advertising. Reams of copy have extolled the virtue of this new fund or that mortgage option. I will have to give the Bush Admin credit....I have never seen the manipulation to the extent that I have seen.

But a curious thing is happening. The numbers that they brag about and have us believe are becoming more and more removed from reality. In pockets here and there, the press is waking up and connecting the dots and looking at the stats (the public has been way ahead of the press on this one). The Bush team is trying too hard to spin that straw into gold. Yes it may look shiney gold but it feels like straw to most of us.

The public has come to the conclusion long before the press reports the data and no amount of advertising by the Wall Street Economic Hype Machine can make them buy what they can't afford (as those with ARM's are discovering).

[WhiteTara]

90. and the new bankruptcy laws

are going to finish them right on off.

[UpInArms]

40. Refco Fallout: Embattled BAWAG bank up for sale

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/business/14231875.htm

VIENNA, Austria - Austria's trade union federation will sell the country's embattled Bank Fuer Arbeit und Wirtschaft in the wake of revelations that it lost just under euro1 billion ($1.2 billion) in soured currency speculation deals in the Caribbean.

The announcement came late Thursday after the president of the federation, called the Oesterreichischer Gewerksschaftsbund or OEGB, resigned. It was revealed that Fritz Verzetnitsch, the president, knew about the use of trade union funds to cover the transactions.

A week ago, the bank known by its acronym BAWAG said it incurred the losses through the financing of investment companies mainly engaged in interest rate and currency derivative transactions in the Caribbean.

<snip>

Bank officials have insisted that the bank remains financially sound, but the losses have further tarnished its reputation amid disclosures that it lent hundreds of millions of euros (dollars) to the former head of New York commodities brokerage Refco Inc.

Vienna's public prosecutor's office announced earlier this week that it was investigating Refco CEO Phillip Bennett on suspicion of fraud and related charges, along with former BAWAG presidents Helmut Elsner and Johann Zwettler.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. Treasury prices higher after tame consumer inflation

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4BCC108A%2D4966%2D4086%2DBF31%2D9D05510175EB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were slightly higher early Friday, sending yields a bit lower, after the Commerce Department issued data showing slight gains in personal incomes and spending, alongside a tame 0.1% increase in core inflation. The data was interpreted as sufficiently mild that it would not push the Fed to raise rates aggressively. The 10-year benchmark note last was up 2/32 at 97-10/32 with a yield ($TNX 48.68, +0.13, +0.3% ) of 4.848%, down from 4,861% at Thursday's close. The benchmark yield Thursday flirted with the 4.9% level, but backed lower. If the benchmark yield breaks above 4.9%, it will mark its highest standing since June, 2002.

[UpInArms]

47. Morning, Ozy!

(shiny coin headbump)

:hi:

[ozymandius]

48. good morning

:donut: UIA and I just engaged in another shiny coin blathery headbump. :hi:

[UpInArms]

49. since we have now both bumped heads again - here's that blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trade is now indicating a mixed, but still subdued, start for the indices. Since the last update, the price of oil has backed further away from its eight-week high. Crude futures are now trading at $66.32 per barrel. Still, though, interest rates are in the spotlight. Bonds are back in the red, and yields have headed higher. The 10-year is now yielding 4.87%. Another factor helping to temper early buying is GM. Supplier Delphi is today expected to request that a federal judge void its union contracts and impose steep wage and benefit cuts. A strike that could potentially occur could cripple GM.

08:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. In February, Personal Income and Spending rose 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, relatively in-line with the 0.4% and 0.0% consensus estimates. Futures trade has ticked slightly higher in traders' initial reaction, but the market is still headed for a subdued start. Conditions within the bond market remain unchanged (the yield on the 10-year is still around 4.85%), but the other factor that troubled the market yesterday - energy prices - is easing. Crude has given back 1.2% and is currently trading at $66.31 per barrel. Unleaded gas (-1.5%), heating oil (-1.7%), and natural gas (-3.6%) are also considerably lower. Geopolitical uncertainty may come back into play, though, given the fact that the weekend is approaching.

07:56 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures trade is suggesting a downside open for the cash market. Yesterday, the specter of rising interest rates came back into focus. At the close of equity trade, the benchmark 10-year note was yielding 4.86%. This morning, the Treasury market is relatively unchanged, and there is little on the corporate front to distract the equity market from rising rates. There is a batch of data on the economic front, but those items aren't expected to have much impact on trade. First up will be Personal Income and Spending reports for February, which will be released at the bottom of the hour.

[ozymandius]

51. tasty carrion to start the trading day

9:43
Dow 11,174.63 +23.93 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,346.29 +5.47 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,301.52 +1.27 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 48.43 -0.12 (-0.25%)
NYSE Volume 144,264,000
Nasdaq Volume 131,542,000

[UpInArms]

52. Partying early at the Casino!

[ozymandius]

54. wet monitor alert!

:rofl:

That one needs a caution sign!

[ozymandius]

57. Get a load of those futures charts!

When I posted the thread this morning - the chart lines looked like those cliffs Wile E. Coyote is always falling off. I know that the first thirty minutes does not make a trading day's trend (or any thirty minutes for that matter). But Jeebus! It looks like a heavy hand is pulling the levers today.

And... watch out. Those lines for the next half hour could poke an eye out.

[UpInArms]

60. 10:11 EST Markets LOVE Defense Spending - To Hell with Consumers!

Dow 11,182.56 +31.86 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,348.35 +7.53 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,301.99 +1.74 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.855 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 352,234,000
Nasdaq Volume 313,674,000

09:40 am : The equity market opened on positive turf. Just before the bell, the Treasury market improved (albeit modestly), and yields have slightly eased. That market has been on the defensive all week, due to the FOMC event, and yesterday came back under the stock market's spotlight. Still, though, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note is at 4.85%. Lately, the stock market has been impressively resilient to rising interest rates, but that doesn't dissuade us from believing rates are currently a bearish factor. Also lending support is the fact that crude is edging off its eight-week high. We don't see its move, at this point, as all that impressive, though. It's still near $66.50 per barrel, and any bad news on Iran could push prices higher. Today's corporate front is a light one. Garnering attention, again, is GM. Reports indicate that supplier Delphi will request that a federal judge void its union contracts. The strike that may result could cripple GM. On the economic front, the core Personal Consumption Deflator (PCE) was up 0.1%. This modest gain was about as expected and won't have a big impact because it does not necessarily represent a change in trend.DJ30 +24.41 NASDAQ +5.04 SP500 +1.49

[UpInArms]

69. Feds shortchange smaller firms - GAO: Contracts funneled to big companies

http://www.telegram.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060331/NEWS/603310443/1002

WASHINGTON— Small businesses lose out on hundreds of millions of dollars in Energy Department contracts each year because the government often gives no-bid work to large firms on flimsy grounds, congressional auditors say.

A report by the Government Accountability Office, obtained yesterday, looks at small-business contracting practices at the department, whose $22.8 billion in annual awards for research, nuclear weapons maintenance and environmental cleanup make it the largest civilian contracting agency.

The report says the agency failed to meet small-business contracting goals of 5.5 percent or lower in four of the last five years because of a lack of controls, poor planning and questionable assumptions that smaller firms couldn’t handle the jobs.

<snip>

“This administration gives big businesses all the breaks and gives small businesses the shaft,” said Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, when asked about the report.

“We need to break down big contracts so small businesses can get a piece of the federal pie,” he said. “This is evidence of a systematic failure by the Bush administration to look out for small businesses, let alone level the playing field.”

...more...

[skids]

81. But, but, entrepeneurs are the "backbone" of our economy! n/t

[Roland99]

71. 11:29am EST - Markets are pretty flat-lined

DJIA 11,152.80 +2.10
Nasdaq 2,340.25 -0.57
S&P 500 1,298.28 -1.97
Russell 2000 761.64 -0.95
30 Yr Bond 4.90 0.00
10 Yr Bond 4.85 0.00

[UpInArms]

72. a side of blather?

11:30 am : The indices have settled back to the flat line. Movement in the stock market appears to be mirroring movement in the bond market. As Treasuries are shifting back towards the unchanged mark, so are stocks. The improvement within the bond market has stalled. Traders are eyeing next week's economic calendar, which features a relatively heavy dose of data. A focal point is the employment report, which will be released on Friday. With the understanding that Fed policy will be data-dependent, the economic calendar will continue to be closely watched. Although today's data hasn't appeared to have much effect on trade, a strong read on regional manufacturing doesn't help dispel rate concerns. DJ30 +1.76 NASDAQ -0.57 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1318/1511/655.0 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1606/1398/476.8 mln

[UpInArms]

73. Commentary: U.S. dollar eerily parallels the life of Ricky Nelson

http://www.liberty-watch.com/volume01/issue12/frenchconnection.php

America was a much different place in the late 1950s. The dollar was sound. Gold in Fort Knox backed the paper money floating throughout, at least in theory. Nelson's fresh-faced look was considered radical. And some Republicans were fiscally conservative and isolationists.

The U.S. government debt was $276 billion in 1956. A mere pittance compared with the $7.9 trillion as of Sept. 30 of this past year. The nation has gone into hock exponentially at a rate of nearly 28 times since Ricky sang Fats Domino's "I'm Walkin."

<snip>

But, the money supply was anything but roaring in 1957. M-3 was roughly $260 billion. Consider now in the age of gangster rap, the money supply stacks up to $10.2 trillion. If you think popular music has been despoiled, money is much worse for wear at the hands of the Federal Reserve.

<snip>

In the first six months of 1971, assets of $22 billion fled the United States. The same year Rick Nelson was booed off the stage, Richard Nixon closed the gold window severing the dollar's last link to gold on Aug. 15.

Rick Nelson's struggle to regain fame ended when he died on New Year's Eve 1985 in a plane crash following a performance in Guntersville, Alabama. A year and half later, the dollar's fate was sealed when Ronald Reagan appointed Alan Greenspan as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Greenspan was to create more money than any central banker in history, with M-3 increasing by $6.6 trillion in his 18 years on the job, an amount 25 times where M-3 stood in 1957 when Ricky Nelson was making hearts flutter.

Thanks to BNL for the heads up! :hi:

[AnneD]

94. I think out theme today should be Garden Party.....

I went to a garden party
To reminisce with my old friends
A chance to share old memories
And play our songs again
When I got to the garden party
They all knew my name
No one recognized me
I didn't look the same

But it's all right now
I learned my lesson well
You see, ya can't please everyone
So ya got to please yourself
<snip>

If you gotta play at garden parties
I wish you a lotta luck
But if memories were all I sang
I rather drive a truck

But it's all right now
I learned my lesson well
You see, ya can't please everyone
So ya got to please yourself

His plane crashed close to my brother's farm and we were visiting him at the time. Couldn't tell what was more invasive: FAA or media.

I liked his new sound. Too bad people put him in a box and not let him evolve.

[UpInArms]

75. GACK!!!! US Q4 derivatives volume tops $100 trln-OCC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-31T160717Z_01_N31198361_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BANKREVENUES.XML

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - Revenues at U.S. banks generated from trading of cash instruments and derivatives fell $1.7 billion, to $3.13 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005, a U.S. bank regulator said on Friday.

Derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks rose to a record $101.5 trillion after increasing by $2.7 trillion in the three-month period, according to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

In the third quarter, revenues reached a record $4.85 billion.

"When you hit a record in revenues, as in the third quarter, the path of least resistance is down," said Kathryn Dick, deputy comptroller for credit and market risk. "Overall, 2005 was a good year for bank trading results, but it was a bit of a bumpy ride."

She said the five biggest banks earned a record $11.9 billion in 2005, compared with $7.3 billion from the prior year. They earned an average of $8.9 billion over the past four years.

<snip>

Five commercial banks also accounted for 96 percent of the total notional amount of derivatives in the U.S. commercial banking system, the OCC said.

...more...

Now that is scary! Five - 5 - only 5 banks - I wonder which ones they are.

[Zynx]

76. JP Morgan is something like 40-50% of the total volume.

[UpInArms]

77. 12:32 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,156.14 +5.44 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,342.46 +1.64 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,299.24 -1.01 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.851 -0.04 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 969,298,000
Nasdaq Volume 871,438,000

12:00 pm : As had been the case yesterday, attention to interest rates has helped squelch the stock market's advance. Conditions within the Treasury market somewhat improved this morning, but that market has since moved back towards the unchanged mark. With bond action back in the stock market's spotlight, the move has prompted the indices' returns to the flat line.

Bond yields are not, at this point, worsening. Nonetheless, the 10-year is yielding 4.85% and remains near a 21-month high. Treasury traders are eyeing next week's relatively heavy economic calendar, which features the employment report. Meanwhile, today's economic calendar has not provided much of a positive catalyst. The core PCE was relatively in-line with expectations and did not change the current trend, Personal Income and Spending reports brough no surprise, and the Chicago PMI reflected continued strength in regional manufacturing.

With Treasuries' earlier improvement, rate-sensitive areas of the stock market had breathed a sigh of relief. Gains have not been sustained, though. The Financial sector has more than halved its gain, and that erasure leaves the market without leadership. The other particularly rate-sensitive pockets are also declining. The Utilities sector has slipped 0.4%, and the homebuilding industry is putting pressure on the Discretionary sector (-0.1%). Lately, the stock market has been impressively resilient to rising interest rates. That does not change the fact that current rates are a bearish factor for stocks, and they are a premise for our neutral view on the market. With respect to the Discretionary sector, General Motors (GM 20.72 -0.34) is, again, weighing on it. Delphi is expected to ask a federal judge to void it union contracts and impose steep wage and benefit cuts today, and a strike that may result could potentially cripple the struggling auto maker.

The other factor that has returned to stock traders' radars are energy prices. Yesterday, their surges contributed to the market's weakness. Today, crude is about 2% lower and back below $66 per barrel. Natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil futures are also sharply lower. The equity market, however, hasn't gotten much spark from the development as interest rate trends remain its driving force at this time. Additionally, the continued concerns over Iran is an overhang, and the potential for disruptions over the weekend is keeping enthusiasm in check.

Just as declining energy prices prompting some profit taking across the Energy sector (-1.5%), so are declining metal prices. Various commodities have hit or approached historical highs this week, and pullbacks are sparking some consolidation across the Materials sector (-0.8%). Those two areas are currently the market's weakest, and they are countering the modest advances in a few others. DJ30 +7.28 NASDAQ -1.10 SP500 +1.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1471/1391/789.2 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1762/1290/572.1 mln

[ozymandius]

79. Indeces still flat

1:15
ow 11,150.86 +0.16 (+0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,342.91 +2.09 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,298.68 -1.57 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 48.64 +0.09 (+0.19%)
NYSE Volume 1,106,219,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,002,544,000

1:00 pm : Sideways trade persists. The market continues to lack much of a catalyst, outside of energy prices, and investors remain focused on bond yields. That market also continues to hover around unchanged territory. At this point, the benchmark 10-year note is up to a 4.86% yield. The 30-year is continuing its recent trend of underperformance. The back end of the yield curve is the most sensitive to inflation, and the 30-year note is especially reflecting that market's concerns over inflation and interest rates. It's presently yielding 4.90%, which is the highest yield on that note in about a year.DJ30 +4.40 NASDAQ +3.19 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1438/1480/939.1 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1676/1421/693.2 mln

[UpInArms]

82. 1:44 EST Deciding to not "hold over the weekend"?

Dow 11,120.04 -30.66 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,335.55 -5.27 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,295.26 -4.99 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.855 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 1,227,681,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,112,550,000

1:30 pm : Selling has increased, and each of the major averages have moved lower. Here's a look at what is going on in the Dow. Sixteen of its constituents are levying losses, which are at this point fully offsetting the gains in the other fourteen. Alcoa (AA 30.31 -0.41), Caterpillar (CAT 71.61 -0.79), and Verizon (VZ 34.09 -0.40) are the average's sorest spots. General Motors (GM 20.93 -0.13), meanwhile, has managed to nearly recover. Its turnaround relieves some of the pressure that the Dow has been facing. There are three issues that have advanced in excess of 1%. Home Depot (HD 42.86 +0.48), Honeywell (HON 42.85 +0.51), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 33.05 +0.48) are serving as the blue chip average's best sources of support. DJ30 -23.93 NASDAQ -2.71 SP500 -4.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1401/1558/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1637/1503/781.6 mln

[Roland99]

85. A little extra cash for April Fool's and spring break.

[UpInArms]

86. Former DeLay Aide Pleads Guilty to Conspiracy

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/31/washington/31cnd-indict.html?hp&ex=1143867600&en=6c680d0ef1e97146&ei=5094&partner=homepage

WASHINGTON, March 31 — A onetime top aide to Representative Tom DeLay, the former House Republican majority leader, pleaded guilty to conspiracy today and agreed to cooperate in a widening investigation into lobbying fraud and influence-peddling.

Tony C. Rudy, Mr. DeLay's former deputy chief of staff, entered the plea in United States District Court here. The felony charge carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison. Prosecutors asked that sentencing be deferred until Mr. Rudy is finished telling them what he knows.

<snip>

The affair in which Mr. Rudy was caught up is widely believed to be focusing on a dozen or more members of Congress, some of whom were wined and dined by Mr. Abramoff and accepted lavish trips arranged by him. The growing scandal has sparked calls for restrictions on spending by lobbyists and acceptance of favors by lawmakers.



<snip>

As part of the arrangement, prosecutors agreed not to pursue possible charges against Mr. Rudy's wife, Lisa. When Mr. Abramoff pleaded guilty in January, documents described a payment of $50,000 from Mr. Abramoff to Ms. Rudy through a charity organization in exchange for her husband's "agreement to perform a series of official acts."

Mr. Rudy was mentioned in the paperwork accompanying Mr. Abramoff's plea agreement as "Staffer A." Investigators were known to be looking into whether Mr. Rudy helped secure legislative favors for Mr. Abramoff's clients in exchange for gifts and the promise of a future job while he was still on the congressman's staff.

...more...

[UpInArms]

87. Another ex-DeLay aide pleads guilty in US scandal (more info)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T190125Z_01_N31237875_RTRIDST_0_CRIME-ABRAMOFF-UPDATE-3.XML

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - A former top aide to Texas Republican Rep. Tom DeLay pleaded guilty in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal on Friday, the second ex-aide to the powerful congressman to admit wrongdoing and agree to cooperate.

<snip>

Rudy worked for DeLay from 1995 through 2000, while DeLay was a Republican leader in the U.S. House of Representatives. Rudy then joined Abramoff as a lobbyist. They conspired together to influence members of Congress, prosecutors said.

<snip>

Rudy accepted $86,000 from Abramoff while working as a DeLay staffer, according to the court documents. In return, Rudy asked lawmakers to vote against an Internet-gambling bill that would have harmed one of Abramoff's clients.

<snip>

"The American public loses when officials and lobbyists conspire to buy and sell influence in such a corrupt and brazen manner," Assistant Attorney General Alice Fisher said.

[UpInArms]

88. Philly Fed's Santomero departs, replacement not set

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-31T192413Z_01_N29333973_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-SANTOMERO.XML

CHICAGO, March 31 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero steps down on Friday with no replacement in sight, leaving the bank he has led for nearly six years in the hands of his second-in-command.

Santomero's departure comes in a phase of unusually high turnover at the U.S. central bank, both in the regions and at the Washington-based board, with its two new governors, new chairman and departing vice chairman.

The bank has no firm timetable for naming a replacement, said Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp. "Our search is under way and we are considering candidates inside and outside the Federal Reserve System. It is truly a national search."

<snip>

Santomero, 59, announced on Dec. 16 he planned to leave after a tenure during which he never dissented on a single Fed interest-rate decision.

<snip>

Fed vice chairman and long-time Greenspan associate Roger Ferguson announced his resignation Feb. 22, weeks after Bernanke's swearing-in. Two other vacancies on the Fed Board were filled only in February, with Kevin Warsh and Randall Kroszner.

With Ferguson's successor, President George W. Bush will have hand-picked the entire seven-member Fed board, becoming only the third U.S. president to do so.

...more...

The Fed's credibility is soon to be even more non-existent.

[ozymandius]

91. enter the Witching Hour

3:01
Dow 11,139.25 -11.45 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,342.47 +1.65 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,298.23 -2.02 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 48.53 -0.02 (-0.04%)
NYSE Volume 1,544,844,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,369,904,000

2:25 pm : Since the previous update, the indices have attempted to turn around. Each, at this juncture, still remains in the red. Bonds, meanwhile, continue to hover between unchanged and slightly improved. Yield movement remains very modest, though, and the 10-year is not budging much from the 4.85% mark. Presently, the S&P 500 is down 0.20%. Mid caps, as measured by the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, are faring similarly. Small Caps are also lower today, but the Russell 2000 is continuing its trend of outperformance. It's currently down 0.1%. Year-to-date, that index has advanced 13.3%. On a year-to-date basis, the S&P 400 has advanced 7.3%, while the S&P has gained 4.2%.DJ30 -14.41 NASDAQ -0.89 SP500 -2.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1593/1391/1.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1862/1319/949.8 mln

[UpInArms]

97. ConocoPhillips names RICHARD ARMITAGE, 2 other to board

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B503DFF51%2D7000%2D4117%2D9ED4%2D187149ED6AC0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- ConocoPhillips (COP 63.33, -1.15, -1.8% ) on Friday named Richard Armitage, Bobby Shackouls and William Wade Jr. to its board. Armitage was deputy secretary of state from 2001 to 2005; Shackouls was previously chairman, president and chief executive of Burlington Resources; and Wade was formerly president of Atlantic Richfield Co. Houston-based ConocoPhillips' board now has 18 members.

I guess he's now the "former" Deputy Secretary of State

http://www.state.gov/s/d/former/42439.htm

Richard L. Armitage’s nomination as Deputy Secretary of State was confirmed by the Senate on March 23, 2001. He was sworn in on March 26, 2001.

Since May 1993, Richard L. Armitage was President of Armitage Associates L.C. He had been engaged in a range of worldwide business and public policy endeavors as well as frequent public speaking and writing. Previously, he held senior troubleshooting and negotiating positions in the Departments of State and Defense, and the Congress.

...more...

http://www.state.gov/s/d/former/armitage/

Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage


Richard L. Armitage's nomination as Deputy Secretary of State was confirmed by the Senate on March 23, 2001. He was sworn in on March 26, 2001.

The Deputy Secretary serves as the principal deputy, adviser, and alter ego to the Secretary of State; serves as Acting Secretary of State in the Secretary's absence; and assists the Secretary in the formulation and conduct of U.S. foreign policy and in giving general supervision and direction to all elements of the Department. Specific duties and supervisory responsibilities have varied over time.

Richard L. Armitage

Richard L. Armitage is considered to be a conservative "neo con" (neo-conservative). He currently serves as Deputy Secretary of State.

Armitage is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.<1> He is one of the signers of the January 26, 1998, Project for the New American Century PNAC letter to President William Jefferson Clinton.<2> He is also a former board member for CACI International, the private military contractor, which "is being investigated by no less than 5 US agencies for possible contract violations" and "employed four interrogators at Abu Ghraib prison" in Iraq, one of whom was singled out by General Taguba in his report on abuses of Iraqi detainees at the prison.<3>

"Most recently, Richard Armitage was the President of Armitage Associates. Previously, he served with the rank of Ambassador as the Coordinator for Technical and Humanitarian Assistance to the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. President George Herbert Walker Bush appointed him as a Presidential Special Negotiator for the Philippines Military Base Agreement, a Special Mediator for Water in the Middle East and as a Special Emissary to Jordan during the 1991 Gulf War. In addition, Richard served in the Pentagon as Assistant Secretary of Defense and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. He attended the U.S. Naval Academy and then completed four tours of duty in Vietnam."<4>

...more...

[ozymandius]

98. That's the biggest revolving door I've ever seen.

freaky huge...and not without illiciting a raised eyebrow as to who passes through it. It is good to know, though, that Mr. Armitage can get off his feet and into a comfortable job during his declining years. :eyes:

[AnneD]

103. They have a big revolving door...

we have a big tent. I just can't believe the audacity. They don't even try to hide it. Like bold cockroaches in the kitchen-they yell at you to turn the light off after you turn it on.

[Roland99]

99. The world Shadow gov't isn't as unknown anymore.

[UpInArms]

100. daily, I thank Gore for the internets!

:D

[ozymandius]

101. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,109.32 -41.38 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,339.79 -1.03 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,294.82 -5.43 (-0.42%)
Gold future 586.70 -5.10 (-0.86%)
30-Year Bond 4.89% +0.00 (+0.02%)
10-Year Bond 4.85% -0.00 (-0.04%)
NYSE Volume 2,224,967,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,870,824,000

4:20 pm : Like yesterday, the major averages attempted to advance. Again, though, attention was fixed on the Treasury market, and bond yields stifled the stock market's upward efforts.

Yesterday, the equity market finally responded to the upward push in bond yields. Conditions did not worsen today, nor did they really improve. Over the course of the week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note went from 4.67% (last Friday) to 4.85%. That still leaves it at a 21-month high. The 4.9% on 30-year, meanwhile, is a yield that that note hasn't seen in about a year. In the early going, Treasuries started to recover a bit. The attempt was short-lived, and with its return to unchanged territory came the stock market's decline. Lately, the stock market has been impressively resilient to rising interest rates. It could not continue to turn a blind eye to them though, and action over the last two session's shows that the Treasury market is back in the spotlight.

Anticipation ahead of next week's economic calendar, which features the closely-watched March Employment Report, contributed to the bond market's passive stance. Mindful that Fed policy will continue to be data-dependent, the economic front remains in focus. There were a few items on today's calendar, but none had much market-moving impact. The core PCE was relatively in-line with expectations and did not change the current trend, Personal Income and Spending reports brought no surprise, and the Chicago PMI reading continued the trend in regional manufacturing.

The corporate front did not provide much of a trading catalyst, either. General Motors (GM 21.27 +0.21) occupied the headlines again. Concerns that voided union contracts at supplier Delphi will lead to a strike sparked early selling, but the stock recovered and really did not have a big effect today. Still, the Discretionary sector closed 0.4% lower. It and other especially rate-sensitive areas faced selling pressure. Homebuilders were a weak spot, the Utilities sector fell 0.7%, and the Financial sector also declined. The latter sector did demonstrate some resilience, but it could not sustain a gain. Its intra-day reversal left the market without leadership.

The Energy and Materials sectors were the worst-faring. After surging recently, energy prices gave back some ground. Crude retreated from its eight-week high, but its move was not all that impressive, given the fact that it remained at $66.50 per barrel. The equity market didn't take much notice, though, as interest rate trends remained its driving force. Also, ongoing concerns over Iran helped temper enthusiasm that the price declines could have sparked. One area of the market that did take note was the Energy sector. The price action prompted some profit-taking. The same thing happened within Materials. Several metals hit or approached historic highs this week, and pullbacks gave traders a reason to secure some recent returns across that sector.

Technology (-0.5%) was an additional factor behind the market's decline. Semiconductors had a volatile week, and the industry's drop today helped submerge the sector and stunt the Nasdaq. On a separate but related note, Google (GOOG 390.00 +1.56) received some added attention today. After today's bell rang, the stock officially became a member of the S&P 500. Volume was nearly twice as much as usual, as index fund managers had to add the stock to their portfolios, but the stock's price was little changed. DJ30 -41.38 NASDAQ -1.03 SP500 -5.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1193/1889/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1579/1674/1.61 bln

[Roland99]

102. Well, the "bargain hunters" will be back on Monday

Everyone have a good weekend!