Poll: Dean Leads Pack In New Hampshire Race

[arcos]

Poll: Dean Leads Pack In New Hampshire Race

DURHAM, N.H. -- Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has expanded his lead over his rivals in the New Hampshire primary race, according to a new poll.

The telephone poll of 446 likely voters, conducted by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows 38 percent of New Hampshire voters plan to choose Dean at the polls with less than three months to go before the Jan. 27 primary.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is second, with 16 percent of voters. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards have 5 percent support, while Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is fifth, with 4 percent.

Four percent support Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, who has spent more time campaigning in Iowa than New Hampshire. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has 1 percent support, while the Rev. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun trailed with no significant support.

<snip>

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2638619/detail.html

[Emboldened Chimp]

1. Dean is going to be the nominee

I can feel it. And Clark will be his VP. That'll be a devistating one-two punch.

[MaineDem]

2. Is a base of 446 likely voters large enough?

I know NH has a small population but are 450 responses enough?

I never was good at statistics.

[Endangered Specie]

3. well, the national polls have 1000 or so in their surveys

If its done randomely amongst likely Democratic registered voters, in such a small state, that is surely enough. That, and deans lead is over 2:1

[ozone_man]

4. "The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent."

I assume they have a statistician on board. Alot of the national polls seem to be about 500, so I would say it is large enough for NH.

Dean is doing incredibly well here.

[TomNickell]

6. Size of state doesn't matter....

The statistical margin of error depends on the number sampled, regardless of the size of the total population. It takes the same number of phone calls to poll NH as California.

[Zynx]

5. Looks like those who say Dean doesn't have appeal don't know what they're

talking about.

This is the state that he is the most known in besides Vermont and he has a 75% favorability rating.

[TomNickell]

7. That'll be the spin....

Dean or Kerry were -supposed- to win NH. They're neighbors and already known. Kerry's not caught on at all.