CNN reports exit polls indicate Berlusconi has lost

[burythehatchet]

in Italian elections. YES!!!
no link yet.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/04/10/italy.elections/index.html

edit to add link.

second link

http://direland.typepad.com/direland/2006/04/berlusconi_defe.html

[marmar]

1. Another neocon bites the dust...

Goodbye Aznar. Goodbye Berlusconi. Tony Blair, your time's almost up.....And then we've got to deal with our Neocon problem.
I have a feeling wannabe neocons like Merkel and Harper won't be around long enough to do much damage.

[TomInTib]

2. Well, we all know about the accuracy of exit polls, don't we?

James A Baker,III is probably on his way to Italy right now.

[xultar]

3. Ahhh so exit polls in Italy work but not inthe US. I get it...

:crazy:

[w4rma]

44. Exit polls in the US worked fine in 2000. I do not think you get it. (nt)

[xultar]

49. Nah I do get it. I was joking. Seems like you didn't get it.

[w4rma]

69. Good. (nt)

[KansDem]

70. "Get it? Got it. Good"

For a moment there, I thought I had stumbled into a showing of "The Court Jester" :D

[Cooley Hurd]

4. Buh-bye, Berlusconi!

http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=16578

[electropop]

5. Berlusconi's grip on Italian media is absolute.

If he can be defeated even with the huge power he has in every aspect of Italian society (He's like Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, and George Bush rolled into one), it gives us hope here. Let's wait and see though if he has rigged the count.

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

10. May be so, but the Italian RAI news

has been very unbiased during the elections (I can watch RAI telecasts here in NYC). Despite his hold over his own media outlets and the national government outlet (RAI), the election coverage is quite unbiased. Of course, newspapers are a different thing, as some do wear their political allegiance on the sleeves (Il Manifesto, L'Unita`, etc.).

[joefree1]

18. Yeah, that's amazing.

He runs the two biggest networks in Italy and has saturated the airwaves with his campaign. Where are people getting their news? From the "internets"?

Kinda makes USA look foolish though. Bush has nowhere the media power yet we got bushbots who still think he walks on water.

[Cha]

42. Love your Muy Macho

Liberal there :) "A meat eating, gun toting, Liberal Democrat" who cares about the environment :)

[peace frog]

6. Buon lavoro, Italia!

Possiamo fare lo stesso qui negli USA?

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

12. Auguri! - good luck -

:D

[UpInArms]

7. First it was Aznar, now it's Berlusconi - next Blair

To the Hague with them all!

[DavidDvorkin]

20. But Blair's opposition isn't to his left

Not the same situation, and not so appealing a situation.

[Auntie Bush]

46. (((((((((((Then George Walker BUSH!!!!!!!))))))))))))))

[BlueEyedSon]

8. Freedom is on the march!

[rodeodance]

14. except for US

[CottonBear]

9. Holy cow! Next on the list: Blair and then Bush/Cheney et al. n/t

[burythehatchet]

13. Rumors are that Blair will be stepping down

and Bush/Cheney will be sent to The Hague in leg irons and handcuffs. :)

[erpowers]

21. Heard That

I am not sure if you are joking but I had heard that Blair would probably not serve a full term. That at some point he would turn over leadership to the second in line I think Martin. I heard that is what labor promised its supporters to get them to vote for labor and keep the labor party in power. "Vote for Blair and you will get Martin".

[burythehatchet]

22. Not kidding about Blair

WISH I weren't kidding about Bush/Cheney

[CottonBear]

65. That would be a dream come true!

:hi: How ya doin'?

[burythehatchet]

66. I'm good. Missing you folks though :(

[CottonBear]

68. When is a good time for you for an Athens DU Spring meetup?

:hi: The Graveyard event was so very nice! We had a great time. There's never enough time to talk to everyone though. :(

[Vidar]

11. Great news! Thanks for posting.

[thereismore]

15. berlusconi spent 3x as much money as Prodi, and still lost. Ha! nt

[Kelvin Mace]

16. But what kind of voting machines do they use?

[Mnemosyne]

41. Italian paper electoral procedures

It sounds like a system with integrity. If only...

>snip

In almost 60 years of democracy in Italy they NEVER had any problems with the vote count or with the declaration of the election results. Even in the 1950s and 1960s, years of strong contrasts between the two principal parties (Communist and Christian Democrats), NO-ONE has ever questioned the legitimacy of the electoral results. How has this been possible?

Through the use of tangible ballot papers and public procedures open to democratic monitoring!
Hand-written ballot-papers publicly counted (in the same place where they have been voted) by randomly selected citizens

The Italian Government has decided to introduce some informatics in counting votes in the next general elections of April 2006. Votes will still be hand-written on ballot papers and manually counted by scrutineers at each polling station using the good old procedures. Electronic data collection occurs at the end of point 27 of the following list. Same seggio will all so send its results directly to the Ministry of Interiors using computers. Such a data transmission will be experimental (point 28 of the following list).

>snip

much more at link! A very honest system, paper! :hi:
http://www.electronic-vote.org/TERMINI/italians_en.php

[paparush]

17. Since When Do Exit Polls Mean Anything.............

Oh, wait, I forgot, we're not talking about the US...

[erpowers]

19. Read It Over Internet

This is a pretty interesting story. My first thought was why is it that most of the people who supported Bush during the beginning of the Iraq War are being beaten and Bush has stayed in office. I then thought well maybe those foreign leaders are not connected to Diebold. I am not saying I completely think the election here was stolen. I just find it interesting that most of the leader who supported this war have either lost their job or suffered great loses in elections, but so far Bush has been able to survive. Maybe 2006 will be different and the Republicans will suffer.

[lovuian]

23. WOOHOO!!! Everyone of Bush's cohorts are loosing!!!

Everyone of them first Spain now Italy soon Blair will be out...

[stephinrome]

24. not looking so good now

I was on the square where Prodi was supposed to speak. Things were looking so good. 158 senate seats to 151. Just got home and things have taken a turn for the worse. Now it's 151 to 158 in favor of Berlusco. :(

Send good thoughts!

[NYC]

36. What kind of voting machines do they have in Italy?

Serious question.

[Mnemosyne]

43. Paper. Here is a link with more.

It sounds as if they have a very good system. 60 years with NO problems.

I would hate to see Berlusconi win. (just checked not looking good for Prodi):(

Here's the post and another link page.

snip>

italian paper electoral procedures

In almost 60 years of democracy in Italy they NEVER had any problems with the vote count or with the declaration of the election results. Even in the 1950s and 1960s, years of strong contrasts between the two principal parties (Communist and Christian Democrats), NO-ONE has ever questioned the legitimacy of the electoral results. How has this been possible?

Through the use of tangible ballot papers and public procedures open to democratic monitoring!
Hand-written ballot-papers publicly counted (in the same place where they have been voted) by randomly selected citizens

The Italian Government has decided to introduce some informatics in counting votes in the next general elections of April 2006. Votes will still be hand-written on ballot papers and manually counted by scrutineers at each polling station using the good old procedures. Electronic data collection occurs at the end of point 27 of the following list. Same seggio will all so send its results directly to the Ministry of Interiors using computers. Such a data transmission will be experimental (point 28 of the following list).

much more at link! A very honest system, paper!
http://www.electronic-vote.org/TERMINI/italians_en.php

snip>

To date (2006) the great majority of democracies of the world elect their Parliaments and Governments using hand counted ballot papers without any serious problem (small, very localized doubts are always solved recounting ballot-papers).
Only Brazil, India and USA use electronic voting for nation-wide political elections.

A very good example of paper elections which to date (2006) never had any problem are the italian paper electoral procedures.

http://www.electronic-vote.org/TERMINI/italians_en.php


snip>

On March 14th 2004, Spain has elected its new Parliament using the traditional ballot-papers system. Ballot boxes were beautiful transparent plastic boxes, not invisible and unverifiable memories of computers! Soon after the closing of the election, the first projections showed who the winner was and the morning after the final results were available. Those results, being manually counted and checked (and verifiable again), were not only official, but even without a shadow of a doubt.

snip>

"Without a shadow of a doubt", if only we could be so fortunate here!

[NYC]

50. Accenture (Arthur Andersen) in 4 districts.

The shadow of a doubt has been introduced.

[Mnemosyne]

53. It begins. n/t

[NYC]

54. Maybe not. It looks like Berlusconi lost.

He's demanding a recount.

[Catrina]

26. And don't forget what's happening in South America! I just read that Peru

may be joining other SA countries who have said no to the radical right dictatorships so loved by this administration. Chile, Venezuela, Paraquay and now Peru! The whole world is turning against them ~ next up, Australia!

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. Polls Now Say Italy Race Too Close to Call

:banghead:

12 minutes ago

ROME - Exit polls indicated Monday that the Italian parliamentary election pitting center-left economist Romano Prodi against flamboyant billionaire Premier Silvio Berlusconi was too close to call. Projections showed Berlusconi's coalition leading in the Senate, but the two sides running neck-and-neck in the lower Chamber of Deputies.

Based on 86 percent of pollster Nexus' sampling, Berlusconi's alliance won 157 Senate seats, compared with Prodi's 152. The margin of error for the sample was between 1 and 3 percentage points.

Also, the projections did not account for six seats chosen by Italians abroad.

Earlier projections showed Prodi set to beat Berlusconi. Prodi postponed a news conference after the latest projections were released.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/italy_election

[no name no slogan]

27. NPR's "Day To Day" says Berlusconi losing by sizable margin

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5334260

audio at link


Smell ya later, Silvio.

[IndianaGreen]

28. Italian media is reporting a Berlusconi slim lead

SENATO - 6a proiezione (95% campione):
CDL 49,1% e UNIONE 49,8%
CAMERA - 1a proiezione (44% campione):
CDL 49,9% e UNIONE 49,6%

http://www.rai.it/

The Unione is the opposition coalition. They trail in the race for the Chamber of Deputies to the conservative coalition.

[PATRICK]

34. Exit poll already

showing a discrepancy with the total?

I suppose someone here, and I wish in Italy, is monitoring a side by side comparison on some sort of time frame.

I doubt that Berlusconi could rig a sizable fraud without mangling it.

[IndianaGreen]

29. New numbers from Italian Radio, 50-49.5%

SENATO - 7a proiezione (97% campione):
CDL 48,8% e UNIONE 50,2%
CAMERA - 2a proiezione (67% campione):
CDL 50,0% e UNIONE 49,5%

http://www.rai.it/

The anti-Berlusconi coalition, Unione, leads in Senate but trails in Chamber of Deputies, with 67% of ballots counted.

[stephinrome]

30. but what really matters are the seats in the senate

Right now:

158 - CDL (Berlusco)
151 - Unione (Prodi)

:(

[UrbScotty]

31. Which means he won (nt)

[IndianaGreen]

32. Extremely close now, Berlusconi 49.8-49.7% with 89% ballots counted

SENATO - 8a proiezione (100% campione):
CDL 49,2% e UNIONE 49,8%
CAMERA - 3a proiezione (89% campione):
CDL 49,8% e UNIONE 49,7%

http://www.rai.it/

[burythehatchet]

33. CORRECTION

Just learned on another thread that this was the first election with electonic voting machines. The project was handled by Accenture (f/k/a Arthur Anderson). So all bets are off.

Link to other thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x896441#896554

[stephinrome]

35. there is no electronic voting here (yet)

Just some counting, in 4 regions out of 20, as an experiment. All votes on paper ballots and counted by hand.

Here's my post in another thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=884377&mesg_id=885526

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. BBC just said projections now put Berlusconi ahead by 0.1%

in the lower house. That's got to be the closest prediction ever.

[Judi Lynn]

38. Berlusconi hanging on in Italian election cliffhanger

11/04/06
Berlusconi hanging on in Italian election cliffhanger

THE fate of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s longest-serving premier since World War Two, hung in the balance last night as vote projections from parliamentary election returns swung dramatically back and forth.

After a campaign dominated by economic issues, projections based on 98% of pollster Nexus’ sampling of votes cast gave the flamboyant billionaire’s centre-right alliance 158 seats in the Senate compared to 151 for challenger Romano Prodi’s coalition. But with a margin of error of one to three percentage points and six seats chosen by Italians voting abroad unaccounted for, the Senate majority was far from assured.

For the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house, 89% of the voting sample gave Mr Berlusconi’s alliance 49.8% to 49.7% for Mr Prodi’s coalition. No seat breakdown was given.

The projections giving Mr Berlusconi a narrow lead in both houses came just hours after exit polls predicted a slim parliamentary victory for Mr Prodi.
With such uncertainty, politicians from both camps appealed for restraint until final results were in.

“All day long we have called for caution and prudence,” said Sandro Bondi, a top official in Mr Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. “We have to wait for real results.”
(snip/...)

http://www.examiner.ie/pport/web/ireland/Full_Story/did-sg-SlwCV5d2-Isg0aewFBADppk.asp

[MattP]

39. It's Tied

It's 49.8-49.8 with 92% in http://www.rai.it/nexus/proiezionicamerapercentuali for real time results

[Pachamama]

40. Why do I feel a sense of deja vu from Ohio '04?

:shrug:

I just had this sickening feeling that just as Italy uses the new "electronic voting technology", a race that is close will suddenely "turn" in the wee hours of the night and they will attribute it to some areas that hadn't been counted yet.

Ah, yes....those pesky exit polls...so what if they say Prodi won and was leading Berlusconi? The electronic machines know better....:eyes:

The flip will happen in the middle of the night....

[Lorien]

55. Ohio? How about Florida in 2000

This is getting to be standard operating procedure when electronic voting methods (and out and out fraud) are employed.

[Judi Lynn]

45. Prodi Claims Italian Election Victory; Berlusconi Seeks Recount

Prodi Claims Italian Election Victory; Berlusconi Seeks Recount
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Romano Prodi claimed victory in the closest Italian election since World War II, as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi demanded a recount.

Final results for the Chamber of Deputies showed Prodi's alliance winning by a margin of just 25,224 out of more than 38 million votes cast. In the Senate, Berlusconi's coalition held a one-seat lead, with the final outcome dependent on six seats set aside for Italians living abroad to be determined later today.

The returns raised the prospect that the two houses of parliament may wind up under divided control for the first time in half a century. Whatever the final result, the prime minister may be vulnerable to the demands of small coalition partners and find it hard to keep campaign promises to stimulate Italy's lagging economy and reduce the world's third-largest debt.

``A divided parliament would most likely lead to a temporary government,'' said Salvatore Zecchini, a professor of international economic policy at Rome's Tor Vergata University. A narrow majority for Prodi ``would make it very difficult to pass measures to boost growth and balance the public accounts.''
(snip/...)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=akNR96LIApJQ&refer=europe

[Mr_Spock]

47. Will the new person have a cool name too?

:D

[robinlynne]

64. good one!

[liberaliraqvet26]

48. One less fascist in the world

[Ediacara]

51. The latest from La Nazione

Roma, 10 aprile 2006 - L'Unione conquista la maggioranza dei seggi alla Camera dei deputati. Con il 49,81% dei voti, secondo i dati definitivi del Viminale (esclusa la circoscrizione elettorale della Valle d'Aosta), all'alleanza di centrosinistra vengono attribuiti i 340 seggi riservati alla coalizione di maggioranza, mentre alla Cdl con il 49,74% dei voti vanno i residui 277 seggi. In base ai dati definitivi diffusi dal Viminale l'Unione ha ottenuto alla Camera la maggioranza per 25.224 voti.

http://lanazione.quotidiano.net/art/2006/04/11/5411100

Translated (rather poorly):

Rome, 10 April 2006 - L'Unione gains the majority of the seats to the Chamber of the Deputies. With the 49,81% of the votes , according to the data definitive of the Viminale (excluded the electoral district of the Valley d'Aosta), all'alleanza of center left come attributed the 340 seats reserved to the coalition of majority , while to the Cdl with the 49,74% ; of the vows the remaining 277 seats go. In base to the definitive data spread from the Viminale l'Unione obtained to the Room the majority for 25.224 vows.

http://fets3.freetranslation.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Flanazione.quotidiano.net%2Fart%2F2006%2F04%2F11%2F5411100&sequence=core&language=Italian%2FEnglish

LONG STORY SHORT: Looks as though Prodi's coalition wins the Chamber of Deputies (Camera), while Berlusconi's coalition may take the Senate by one seat.

[varun]

52. Very close!

Almost like FL in 2000 elections...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4897994.stm

Centre-left claims Italy victory

Italy's centre-left opposition has won a narrow victory in the lower house of parliament, official results say.
It won 49.8% of the vote against 49.7% for the centre-right, according to interior ministry figures.

The head of the centre-left coalition, former Prime Minister Romano Prodi, told cheering supporters in Rome: "Victory has arrived".

But the claim has been contested by the ruling centre-right coalition of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

His spokesman Paolo Bonaiuti said his bloc would demand a "scrupulous" check of election ballots.

....

[biggles1]

56. Arrivaderci Silvio! Non ti ritorni....!

[lala_rawraw]

57. T hank GOD, now indict him and convict him that killer

[malaise]

58. According to BBC Breaking News

The Centre Left Pary has just held a press conference claiming four of the six Senate seats. If confirmed this means that Prodi takes both houses of Parliament -fugg you Berlusconi.

[muriel_volestrangler]

59. And there are also 7 'life senators'

Italian newspapers on Tuesday also wondered whether Italy's seven life senators might make a difference in determining who gets the majority in the Senate should ballots cast by Italians living abroad not be decisive. Five out of seven life senators are considered close to the centre-left coalition.

http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_English.php?cat=Politics&loid=8.0.285864789&par=0

[malaise]

62. Prodi, winner of Italy's parliamentary election

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-04/11/content_4412179.htm

[allemand]

60. Italy left to win slim majority in Senate: reports

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's center-left coalition is projected to win a slim majority in the Senate after most ballots from overseas voters were counted, Sky Italia television said on Tuesday.

Partial results showed that the center left had won at least four of six Senate seats allocated to expatriate voters, Sky Italia said, making a projection from Interior Ministry data.

That would give the center left a total of 158 seats in the upper house against 156 for the center right, with only one seat left to attribute.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060411/wl_nm/italy_senate_dc_1

:bounce:

[muriel_volestrangler]

61. Let's hear it for the expats!

Perhaps they've benefitted from not having to watched Berlusconi-controlled TV all the time.

[robinlynne]

63. wait a minute. CNN doesn't believe in election polls in our elections

Funny thing. Gore won in exit polls. Kerry won in exit polls....

[caligirl]

67. can we get into the Niger forgeries now that the crook is out of office?

[KansDem]

71. Wait! What about all those neo-Cons who vote late in the day?

Or who don't regularly speak to exit pollsters?

I think we need to wait until Berlusconi's first-cousin "calls" the election...