STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 18 April

[ozymandius]

Tuesday April 18, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1007 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1944 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1644 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1605
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 17, 2006

Dow... 11,073.78 -63.87 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq... 2,311.16 -14.95 (-0.64%)
S&P 500... 1,285.33 -3.79 (-0.29%)
Gold future... 618.80 +18.70 (+3.02%)
30-Year Bond 5.08% -0.03 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.01% -0.03 (-0.58%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

AN ODE TO THE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

There is something about technical analysis – and its application to accurately predict future price levels these days that is making me sick. It seems to me that virtually every analyst, many of whom I respect, are too hung up in their beliefs that mining shares de facto must revisit “lower bollinger bands” or their 200-day moving averages. The rationale most often cited is that these critical chart points are “always” revisited – history tells us this - according to their chartist’s discipline. After all, everyone knows that prices never go “straight up” – or do they?

Well, here are a few bites of history compliments of George J. W. Goodman:

“Before World War I Germany was a prosperous country, with a gold-backed currency, expanding industry, and world leadership in optics, chemicals, and machinery. The German Mark, the British shilling, the French franc, and the Italian lira all had about equal value, and all were exchanged four or five to the dollar. That was in 1914. In 1923, at the most fevered moment of the German hyperinflation, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Mark was one trillion Marks to one dollar, and a wheelbarrow full of money would not even buy a newspaper. Most Germans were taken by surprise by the financial tornado.”

-cut-

Shaky governments, an external threat, a state of war and corporate entities that somehow manage to rise above it all and prosper despite the conditions – all against the backdrop of a yearning for a lower currency; I guess they simply desired a little more “flexibility.” Now I’ll bet you are all wondering what the 200-day moving averages were of Krupp, Thyssen, Farben and Stinnes were, eh?

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[InsultComicDog]

10. Oy yoy yoy

So how does one insulate oneself from when the economy goes "Enron"?

[RawMaterials]

12. Let me know if you can figure out that one

:hi: welcome to the smw,

I used to think it was gold but i don't know anymore, I'm leaning to other currencies but my :tinfoilhat: makes me think thats
a lost cause also. I think the next reserve currency is going to be a global currency replacing all currency's, that screws the absolute most
people from protecting their existing wealth and also fits in with the crazy right wing end of the world scenarios

[Danascot]

18. What to do?

About a year ago, based on the trends that appeared to be developing, I put a significant portion of my portfolio into gold & precious metals, energy resources, and international/emerging markets. That portion is up close to 70% in a year. I think those trends will continue in the foreseeable future ... only my opinion ... but so far, so good.

[AnneD]

43. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and all you lurkers. Wish I had gotten into metals sooner, and will still get in as I think they are a good hedge and will rise for some time still. I did get into immerging markets so I am doing well there.

I know this sounds funky, but I have always been into commodities, of the practical kind. My family background (until my parents) has always been farming so I grew up believing that it was important to have as big a pantry as I can afford. I keep a years worth of food stored away. You can catch a good sale, store and rotate. It can really protect you in an emergency (unemployment, shortage, etc). It was a real lifesaver when I was unemployed for so long in the mid 80's. I look at it the same as I would a savings account. Just a practical suggestion from someone that has had to face natural and man made disasters.

And speaking of man made disasters, we had a lot of fun with the not so rolling blackouts yesterday. It hit during rush hour and it took some time to get home yesterday. The lights on my street were out in spots. I can never recall them going out this early. I hope summer is kind to us. I hate to see the utility bill. I got up early this am and ran the dishwasher and cooked dinner just in case.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Building Permits Mar
Briefing Forecast 2110K
Market Expects 2100K
Prior 2179K

8:30 AM Core PPI Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Housing Starts Mar
Briefing Forecast 2090K
Market Expects 2025K
Prior 2120K

8:30 AM PPI Mar
Briefing Forecast 0..4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior -1.4%

2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Mar 28

[UpInArms]

13. 8:30 Reports tumbling in:

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH INTERMEDIATE GOODS PRICES DOWN 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH CRUDE GOODS PRICES DOWN 2.7%

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH ENERGY PRICES RISE 1.8%

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 4.4% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.1% IN MARCH

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. CORE PPI UP 1.7% IN PAST YEAR, UNCHANGED VS. FEB.

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. PPI UP 3.5% IN PAST YEAR, LOWEST SINCE SEPT. 2004

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH CORE PPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH PPI UP 0.5% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 5.5%, BIGGEST SINCE SEPT.99

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS BELOW FORECAST OF 2.04 MLN UNITS

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 2005

8:30 AM ET 4/18/06 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS DOWN 7.8% TO 1.96 MLN UNITS

[UpInArms]

14. U.S. March housing starts down 7.8% to 1.96 mln units

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B04CD7D16%2D2C67%2D4EFB%2D81DD%2D85D4C7D60C8E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Construction of new U.S. houses retreated for the second straight month in March after hitting a 33-year high in January. Starts fell 7.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted 1.96 million annualized units, the lowest level since March 2005, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Starts of new single-family homes fell by 12.0% to a 1.59 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The decline was larger than expected. Economists were looking for starts to fall to 2.04 million. Building permits for new housing fell 5.5% to a 2.06 million annual rate, the largest decline since September 1999. Permits are also at their lowest level in a year. Permits for single-family homes dropped by 6.9% to a 1.54 million annual rate.

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. March PPI up 0.5%, core PPI up 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFA8F083F%2D9D2C%2D47CC%2DBFF9%2D562BA2C77005%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March as gasoline prices showed the biggest gain in 16 months, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Outside of food and energy, however, seasonally adjusted finished goods prices showed little movement. The core producer price index increased 0.1% in March, the smallest gain since November. Economists were expecting the PPI to rise 0.4% and the core to rise 0.2%. The PPI is up 3.5% in the past year, the lowest year-over-year gain since September 2004. Core prices are up 1.7% in the past year, the same year-over-year gain as last month. Prices fell further back in the production pipeline.

[UpInArms]

28. Gas Prices Push Up Wholesale Inflation

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060418/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

WASHINGTON - A big jump in gasoline prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up in March at the fastest pace in three months, as oil prices above $70 a barrel sent consumers a high-octane warning of expensive fuel costs ahead.

The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices rose by 0.5 percent in March following a 1.4 percent decline in February, which had been the largest drop in nearly three years.

The March increase was slightly worse than the 0.4 percent rise that Wall Street had been expecting and was driven by a 9.1 percent surge in gasoline prices, the biggest one-month gain since November 2004.

Consumers can expect even worse numbers in coming months, given that crude oil prices this week have climbed to new records above $70 per barrel. That reflects worries about supply disruptions in Nigeria and increasing tensions between the West and
Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

<snip>

Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, was the biggest one-month gain since a 0.8 percent increase in December, a jump that was also driven by surging energy prices.

...more...

[UpInArms]

97. FOMC Minutes:

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC SAW HOUSING MARKET DOWNSHIFT, BUT IMPACT UNCERTAIN

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 SEVERAL FOMC MEMBERS SAW NO SLACK IN LABOR, PRODUCT MARKETS

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC: ENERGY, COMMODITY IMPACT ON INFLATION STILL CONCERN

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC SAID INFLATION NOT MOVING HIGHER IN FEB. AND MARCH

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 SOME ON FOMC SAW RISK MARKET WOULD ASSUME SEVERAL MORE HIKES

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 SOME FOMC MEMBERS WANTED TO ALTER POLICY STATEMENT

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC CONCLUDED THAT CHECKING RISKS TO INFLATION IMPORTANT

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 SOME ON FOMC WERE WORRIED ABOUT DELAYED IMPACT OF TIGHTENING

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC MINUTES: SOME SAW DANGER OF TIGHTENING TOO MUCH

2:00 PM ET 4/18/06 FOMC MINUTES: MOST MEMBERS THOUGHT RATE HIKE END WAS 'NEAR'

[UpInArms]

98. FOMC minutes: Most members thought rate hike end was 'near'

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B288F9A60%2D410D%2D46FF%2DBA50%2DC882EDC0C1A0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Most members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee agreed that the Fed's recent chapter of steady rate hikes was coming to a close, according to a summary of the March 27-28 meeting released Tuesday. "Most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near and some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much, given the lags in the effects of policy," the summary said. The Fed has hiked rates for 15 straight meetings, bringing rates back to 4.75% after hitting a low of 1.0% in the spring of 2004. During the discussion, Fed officials agreed "the effects on spending of the substantial increase in short-and intermediate-term rates since June 2004 had probably not yet been fully felt." The FOMC decided on March 28 to hike rates to check the upside risks of inflation. Some Fed officials wanted the change the policy statement released at the end of the meeting. "Several members were concerned that market participants might not fully appreciate the extent to which future policy action will depend on incoming economic data, especially when an end to the tightening process seems likely to be near," the summary said.

[UpInArms]

103. Odds of June rate hike fade after minutes, data, Yellen

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAA2C2574%2DDEAF%2D4BEA%2D9CB2%2D557294BFAFBC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5.25% in June faded on Tuesday after comments and data suggested the end of Fed tightening could be near. In the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade, investors were pricing in a 28% chance of a rate hike in June, down from 54% earlier. The market still expects the Fed to boost its overnight rate to 5.25% by the August meeting. The market reacted to dovish comments in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes saying most members thought the end was near. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said earlier she's worried about overshooting. Earlier, economic data showed benign core inflation and a falling housing market.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hits record $72 on Iran fears

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil surged to a record high above $72 on Tuesday on concern that
Iran's nuclear stand-off with the West could cut oil exports from the world's fourth-largest crude exporter.

In London, North Sea Brent crude oil jumped 74 cents to an all-time high of $72.20 a barrel as Iran and the West exchanged increasingly sharp words over the Islamic Republic's determination to push ahead with a nuclear program.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit a record $70.88, smashing through its end-August high of $70.85.

"The Iranian situation is making us all very nervous... We don't seem to be getting anywhere on the diplomatic solutions," said Deborah White, an analyst at SGCIB in Paris.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Crude touches post-Katrina highs

Light US crude oil for May delivery touched $70 a barrel in Monday trading in Asia as ongoing political dramas continued to drive commodity markets. Brent crude reached a record $71.40 a barrel.

The post-Hurricane Katrina high for front-month crude came on the back of renewed fears over the consequences of Iran's nuclear programme. At the same time, tensions remain high in the oil-producing areas of Nigeria where large volumes of production remain shut in by rebel groups.

Concerns over output from West Africa - a region from which the US hopes to source 25 per cent of its crude imports in the future - were further exacerbated by events in Chad. Late last week, opposition forces managed to strike the capital N'Djamena and the regime then threatened to cease exports unless an Exxon-Mobil led consortium paid it $100m, in contravention of World Bank controls of the finance flow.

-cut-

Silver also pushed higher, tracked by platinum and palladium. Spot silver reached $13.33 an ounce.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Uncle Sam's hand in high gas prices?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - As gasoline prices spiral upward ahead of the high-demand summer season, some traders and consumer advocates are laying at least part of the blame squarely on the doorstep of the federal government.

While near-record crude prices account for nearly 60 percent of the cost of making gasoline, and unabated demand from U.S. drivers has done nothing to ease prices, part of the run-up has to do with problems with switching from one type of gasoline additive to another.

The switch is happening because lawmakers didn't include liability protections for makers of MTBE, a cancer-causing additive easily soluble in water that has been the subject of several lawsuits, when they enacted an energy bill last August.

So refiners are scrambling to switch to ethanol, a corn-based additive that also makes fuel cleaner burning, which is required in most major metropolitan markets. But with just six months to make the switch, supplies of ethanol and the trucks and rail cars needed to bring it to market are stretched, which has helped push gasoline futures to their highest level in over six months and prices at the pump closer to the $3 a gallon mark.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/news/economy/gas_prices_ethanol/index.htm

[54anickel]

16. Bastards have no one to blame but themselves for the ethanol scramble.

If they would have done the ethical thing to begin with and changed the additive when the dangers of MTBE were uncovered they wouldn't be scrambling today. But noooooo, they were holding out, counting on the federal government would protect them from those nasty "frivolous lawsuits".

Greedy, unethical, immoral bastards! :grr:

[AnneD]

47. I remember reading a paper on ethics and business...

and the gist was that it is always more cost effective to do the right thing (moral, ethical, enviromental) and that it is better to invest that way too. This may be a case in point.

[54anickel]

50. Nah, that's long-term thinking. Nobody does that anymore - it's so 70's

Long-term planning interferes with the need for greed and gotta have it now! It all fits in with that re-edumacating. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

62. Well...

cover me in tar and call me a fossil.:evilfrown: That makes a sad 'pitch' for edumacation now don't it. :spray:

[Roland99]

66. It's all about the short-term, bay-bee!!

[UpInArms]

29. Record oil prices shake investor confidence

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-18T124839Z_01_L18398367_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-4.XML

LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - A new record oil price above $72 a barrel in London shook investor confidence on Tuesday, dragging down European shares, boosting demand for safe-haven bonds and sending gold to 25-year highs.

The dollar was steady, having recovered some of its weakness from Monday. Japanese shares rose on the back of gains in the oil stock sector.

Wall Street looked set for modest gains at the open, but with the high price of oil pressuring.

"Earnings will be coming in full gear ... but even if they were to be good, stock investors will question the sustainability of such results given high oil prices," said Andre Bakhos, president at the Princeton Financial Group.

Oil was the key driver for financial markets, with high prices seen by many investors as the biggest risk to continued global economic expansion and benign inflation.

U.S. crude futures <CLc1> rose past their previous record high, hit during the Hurricane Katrina aftermath, to $70.88 a barrel, on fears of possible military action against Iran and as a major Nigerian supply outage dragged on.

<snip>

"We expect oil prices to continue climbing over the next couple of weeks and would not be suprised to see $75 a barrel be breached," Danske Bank said in a note.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Iran parades its military might

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-2139246,00.html

Iran staged a show of military might today as thousands of its troops paraded with guns, rockets and even small submarines through central Tehran.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took the salutes at the Army Day military parade, and remarked that any aggressor attacking Iran would live to regret it.

The Islamic Republic is involved in a stand-off with the international community, after defying the United Nations Security Council and restarting its uranium enrichment programme.

<snip>

Analysts say much of Iran’s military equipment is outdated but that its forces could still disrupt oil shipping routes in the Gulf, which they said was the message behind the manoeuvres.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. Russia Still Opposed to Sanctions on Iran

http://abcnews.go.com/International/print?id=1854288

MOSCOW - Russia said it remains opposed to sanctions against Iran, while China expressed hope for a negotiated solution as senior diplomats from six countries converged in Moscow on Tuesday to map out the next step toward solving the Iranian nuclear standoff.

The United States and Britain say that if Iran does not comply with the U.N. Security Council's April 28 deadline to stop uranium enrichment, they will seek a resolution that would make the demand compulsory.

<snip>

Senior diplomats from the five permanent Security Council members that wield veto power Russia, the United States, France, Britain and China plus Germany will meet over dinner Tuesday in Moscow to discuss the latest moves in the standoff.

Discussions were expected to continue Wednesday during a meeting of envoys from the Group of Eight major industrialized nations.

<snip>

Russia and China, which have strong economic ties to Iran, have opposed punitive measures.

...more...

[54anickel]

141. Sanctions against Iran (Ron Paul)

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2006/tst041706.htm

As the drumbeat for military action against Iran grows louder, some members of Congress are calling to expand the longstanding U.S. trade ban that bars American companies from investing in that nation. In fact, many war hawks in Washington are pushing for a comprehensive international embargo against Iran. The international response has been lukewarm, however, because the world needs Iranian oil. But we cannot underestimate the irrational, almost manic desire of some neoconservatives to attack Iran one way or another, even if it means crippling a major source of oil and destabilizing the worldwide economy.

Make no mistake about it: Economic sanctions are acts of aggression. Sanctions increase poverty and misery among the very poorest inhabitants of targeted nations, and they breed tremendous resentment against those imposing them. But they rarely hurt the political and economic elites responsible for angering American leaders in the first place.

In fact, few government policies are as destructive to our economy as the embargo.

While embargoes sound like strong, punitive action, in reality they represent a failed policy that four decades of experience prove doesn't work. Conversely, economic engagement is perhaps the single most effective tool in tearing down dictatorships and spreading the message of liberty.

It is important to note that economic engagement is not the same thing as foreign aid. Foreign aid, which should be abolished immediately, involves the US government spending American tax dollars to prop up other nations.

more...

[UpInArms]

61. Crude touches Nymex high at $70.55 a barrel

10:00 AM ET 4/18/06 CRUDE FUTURES HIT NYMEX HIGH AT $70.55 A BARREL

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3A26B367%2D837E%2D4259%2D8558%2D8E37DE2D65FA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose to their highest-ever level on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Tuesday amid continued concerns about the nuclear standoff between Iran and the west. Crude for May delivery was up 15 cents at $70.55 a barrel. The contract touched a high of $70.88 in electronic trade overnight. Gasoline futures rose 0.4 cents to $2.1735 a gallon, heating oil dipped 0.3 cents to $2.02 a gallon and natural gas was up 12.3 cents at $7.7 per million British thermal units.

[UpInArms]

65. Behind the curve: CIBC ups '06 oil price to $65 bbl

10:35 AM ET 4/18/06 CIBC UPS '07 OIL PRICE EST. TO $65/BARREL FROM $60/BARREL

10:36 AM ET 4/18/06 CIBC CUTS '06 NAT-GAS EST. TO $8.50/MCFE FROM $9.75/MCFE

10:35 AM ET 4/18/06 CIBC UPS '06 OIL PRICE EST. TO $65/BARREL FROM $60/BARREL

:rofl:

Have these jokers looked at the charts lately?

[UpInArms]

72. Laugh of the Day: Bush 'concerned' about rising gas prices

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B52B3DFE8-B4EA-421A-AB89-050FC0237916%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush said he's worried about rising gasoline prices, and that the administration will be on the lookout for any signs of illegal price gouging.

"I'm concerned what it means to the working families and small businesses. And I'm also mindful that the government has the responsibility to make sure that we watch very carefully and investigate possible price gouging. And we'll do just that," Bush told reporters at the White House during an appearance to announce the nomination of U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman to head the Office of Management and Budget. See full story.

Bush said rising prices are the result of three factors -- high crude oil prices that have resulted from tight supplies and strong global demand, a seasonal increase in driving, and the changeover to summer fuel mixes.

Crude-oil futures rose to their highest-ever level on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Tuesday amid continued concerns about the nuclear standoff between Iran and the west. The May contract rose as high as $70.88 a barrel in electronic trading overnight, surpassing the previous record of $70.85 reached Aug. 30, in the midst of a record hurricane season in the United States. See full story.

[Roland99]

84. "As he turned around and gave his trademark shoulder-raising cackle"

[UpInArms]

77. Crude-oil futures hold near record high (@ $70.50 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5F7D736C-A2F2-4E29-8E7F-E6B3DC549AE0%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures traded within a whisker of a new high for a front-month contract Tuesday as continued concerns about a possible military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran bolstered prices.

Light sweet crude for May delivery was trading up 15 cents at $70.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose as high as $70.88 a barrel in electronic trading overnight, surpassing the previous record of $70.85 reached August 30, in the midst of a record hurricane season in the U.S.

"Iran is still the main driver," said Tobias Merath, an analyst for Credit Suisse in Zurich, which is forecasting oil prices between $65 and $72 in three months, with a level of $75 a barrel seen as the top.

The oil market is worried about the increasing tensions between Iran and Western governments seeking to pressure Tehran into halting its nuclear program.

...more...

[UpInArms]

94. Crude @ record $70.90 bbl

1:35 PM ET 4/18/06 CRUDE FUTURES TRADE AT $71 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME

1:31 PM ET 4/18/06 CRUDE FUTURES CLIMB TO RECORD $70.90 A BARREL

[UpInArms]

121. Crude closes with a Nymex record @ $71.35 bbl

3:02 PM ET 4/18/06 CRUDE FUTURES CLOSE UP 95C AT RECORD $71.35 A BARREL

[UpInArms]

122. Crude closes at record $71.35 a barrel

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDB30BB6E%2D772A%2D4737%2D8E3C%2D90F7978816B8%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed at their highest ever level on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid concerns of a possible military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Crude for May delivery finished up 95 cents at $71.35 a barrel. The contract set an intraday record for a front-month contract of $71.60 a barrel. The previous record was $70.85 a barrel, set on Aug. 30, 2005 in the middle of a record hurricane season.

[ozymandius]

5. Gold rises as fears over 'nuclear' Iran see oil prices spike

GOLD surged to a fresh 25-year high yesterday, buoyed by concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and surges in oil prices, which breached the $70 a barrel level for the first time since Hurricane Katrina hit the US coast last August.

Meanwhile, silver powered to its highest since May 1983 on hopes for the first silver exchange-traded fund. Hedge funds and operators investing in the short term were anxious about shifting their funds into gold and silver for the purpose of diversifying and raising higher returns.

Spot gold rose as high as $606.10 an ounce - the highest since December 1980 - while silver rose to $13.33 per ounce, the highest since May 1983.

-cut-

"We all know both gold and silver prices are too high, but no long-holders are willing to sell, while short-holders were getting heavily squeezed," said Takashi Ogura, a risk management section manager at Kanetsu Asset Management. "People don't want to go against the present bullish trend, so prices are surging," he added.

more...

http://business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=583892006

[UpInArms]

69. Gold keeps rising on Iran fears and record crude - June Gold @ $620.10 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B8B12CE07-9A34-495D-B56C-3AD320553100%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures resumed their bull run Tuesday, climbing to a fresh 25-year high above $620 an ounce as Iran fears pushed crude prices to record levels and the dollar weakened.

"The gold market is fulfilling the promise that gold bugs like myself have touted for years: safe haven in uncertain times," said veteran trader Kevin Kerr.

Gold for June delivery was last trading up $1.30 at $620.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having earlier touched a high of $622.30 an ounce in electronic trade.

Gold briefly eased after the release of March producer price data, showing core inflation - excluding food and energy prices - still tame. The core producer price index rose 0.1%, better than economist forecasts for a 0.2% rise and the smallest gain since November. The reading overshadowed the rise in headline inflation of 0.5%, which was greater than the consensus forecast of 0.4%.

"Overall, U.S. inflation remains biased to move higher on rising commodity prices, though the core figures remain remarkably resilient to strength in headline inflation," said economists at research firm Action Economics.

The dollar fell on the inflation report while Treasurys rallied. The dollar was last trading down 0.2% against the yen and down 0.3% against the euro. See currency report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

95. Gold closes @ $623.30 oz - Silver @ $13.785 oz - Copper @ $2.971 lb

1:52 PM ET 4/18/06 GOLD CLOSES UP $4.50 AT $623.30 AN OUNCE

1:53 PM ET 4/18/06 SILVER FUTURES CLOSE UP 42C AT $13.785 AN OUNCE

1:53 PM ET 4/18/06 COPPER FUTURES CLOSE UP 7.60C AT $2.971 A POUND

[UpInArms]

96. Gold closes at 25-year high of $623.30/oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B88A42492%2D94F4%2D4F15%2DAF84%2D928950514FB8%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed at a fresh 25-year high Tuesday, pulling other metals with them, amid record crude prices and a falling dollar. Gold for June delivery closed up $4.50 at $623.30 an ounce. Silver for May delivery was up 42 cents at $13.785 an ounce, having earlier risen to a 22-year high of $13.82. Copper set a record of $2.975 a pound, closing just below that level at $2.971, up 7.60 cents on the day.

[ozymandius]

6. Chief Executive of Wendy's Retires Amid Declining Sales

Wendy's International, the third-largest American hamburger chain, said yesterday that its chairman and chief executive, John T. Schuessler, 55, retired after 30 years at the company.

Kerrii B. Anderson, 48, was named interim chief and president, and a director, James V. Pickett, 64, was elected chairman, Wendy's said yesterday in a statement. The company also said it would conduct a nationwide search for a successor to Mr. Schuessler.

Wendy's reported this month that sales at stores open more than a year had fallen for the sixth consecutive quarter. A group of store owners and investors called for the company to improve results, cut costs and consider selling the Baja Fresh chain.

"The company was being pressured from three different areas — franchisees, shareholders and the competition — to turn things around," said Dennis Jean-Jacques, portfolio manager with Basso Capital Management "The board is sending a signal to all the stakeholders that enough is enough."

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Eat responsibly, McDonald's says (trans.: Do not eat here.)

CHICAGO - Facing yet more criticism over the healthfulness of the food it offers, McDonald's has responded by intensifying its efforts to sway public opinion through the news media.

-cut-

The publicity effort comes amid more slings and arrows pointed at the hamburger giant.

Next month, Eric Schlosser, author of ``Fast Food Nation,'' a harshly critical study of the industry, releases a new co-written book targeted at teenagers called ``Chew on This: Everything You Don't Want to Know About Fast Food.'' Later in the year, a movie based on ``Fast Food Nation'' is set to be released in movie theaters.

Last week, in another example of the heat McDonald's faces, a study published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine claimed that McDonald's sells healthier french fries and chicken strips in Europe than in America.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/14367552.htm

[acmejack]

9. That Kirby piece was some compelling reading, Oz

Great start to the morning as always! I can't tell you how much I appreciate your posts, I really anticipate them with my morning coffee.

Get thee to Austin someday and I will be quite pleased to stand you to lunch or a drink or whatever, kind sir!

What I am trying to say though, is thank you so very much for all your hard work & for sharing it with the community!
a

[ozymandius]

32. If ever I venture to Texas -

Austin is the one sure place I would hang my hat. Thank you for the kind offer. I happily extend the same should you find your way to Atlanta someday.

best to you,

Ozy :hi:

[InsultComicDog]

11. Guess their stock isn't "Biggie" sized

They look forward to a time when thei company's value is once again "hot and juicy"

[AnneD]

52. Maybe....

their previous earnings reports were filled with Whoppers-then you can expect future investors to be rather chili to Wendy's stock.

[UpInArms]

57. Wendy's ex-CEO to get $3M under retirement pact

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B6F87976F-8C51-4788-838F-1DA90E02F044%7D&keyword=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Wendy's International Inc.'s (WEN) recently retired chairman, president and chief executive, John T. Schuessler, is entitled to receive $3 million under terms of a retirement agreement, according to a filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Dublin, Ohio, operator and franchiser of fast-food restaurant chains reported Schuessler's retirement in a press release Monday. Wendy's International said its board elected Kerrii B. Anderson as the company's interim CEO and James V. Pickett as the chairman.

Wendy's International said the $3 million is payable to Schuessler in installments through April 17, 2008, subject to the terms of the retirement agreement. Schuessler agreed to serve as a consultant with the company through April 17, 2008, the SEC filing said.

Separately, the company said Schuessler is also entitled to receive a cash payment tied to its senior executive annual performance plan. Depending on some performance standards under the plan, if his nominal 2006 cash bonus amount exceeds $900,000, he will be eligible for the cash payment.

Also, the company said under pre-existing retirement provisions of its 1990 stock option plan and 2003 stock incentive plan, Schuessler is entitled to exercise vested nonqualified stock options to purchase 489,000 common shares until the earlier of the option expiration date or 48 months after April 17.

...more...

[AnneD]

87. More lettuce..

than I'll ever see......

[UpInArms]

17. daily dollar watch

[UpInArms]

26. Dollar dips after PPI, housing starts data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B39B47DF4%2D13C1%2D4C06%2DAA35%2DCC5E2B6302CC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar eased early Tuesday in the wake of a tame core producer price index reading and weaker-than-expected housing starts data. The core producer price index increased 0.1% in March, the smallest gain since November, the Labor Department said. The headline producer prices rose 0.5% in March. Economists were expecting the PPI to rise 0.4% and the core to rise 0.2%. The PPI is up 3.5% in the past year, the lowest year-over-year gain since September 2004. Separately, new construction on U.S. houses fell 7.8% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.960 million units in March, the lowest level in a year. Economists were calling for a decline to 2.04 million. In early New York trading, the euro was up 0.2% at $1.2270, while the dollar fell 0.6% to 117.79 yen.

[UpInArms]

38. dollar diving

Last trade 88.38 Change -0.23 (-0.26%)

Settle Time 15:05 Open 88.62

Previous Close 88.61 High 88.85

Low 88.34 2006-04-18 09:00:05, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

48. Interest Rates

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville041806.html

Short-term interest rates and the stock market

The following chart compares the performance of the S&P500 Index with the performance of the yield on a 2-year Treasury Note. Clearly, over the 8-year period covered by this chart the 2-year interest rate and the US stock market have moved in lock-step, that is, rising trends in short-term interest rates have invariably been accompanied by rising trends in the stock market, and vice versa. Notice, for example, that the 2-year interest rate and the S&P500 bottomed together during October of 1998 and then rallied together into the first half of 2000. Notice, as well, that the S&P500 embarked on a major bear market in March of 2000 while the 2-year yield began a major bear market of its own a couple of months later; and that within 3 months of the March-2003 beginning of a cyclical bull market in the S&P500 Index the 2-year yield began to trend relentlessly higher.



Now, short-term interest rates in the US are controlled by the Fed. The above chart therefore makes the case that the Fed's monetary policy has been, and continues to be, strongly influenced by what is happening in the stock market. Specifically, the chart implies that the Fed can be relied upon to cut interest rates in response to persistent stock market weakness and to hike interest rates in response to persistent stock market strength.

We think the chart's message is that the Fed will continue to hike the official short-term interest rate until after US equities commence their next bear market. The idea that the stock market outlook is bright because the Fed is about to end its rate-hiking is therefore nonsensical since the thing that is most likely needed in order for the Fed to end its rate hiking is the commencement of a large and lengthy downturn in the stock market.

The global bond market is the setting of some of the most interesting developments happening in the financial world at this time. The first of the following two charts, for example, shows that US Treasury Bond futures have just closed below important support and are now at their lowest level since July of 2004, whereas the second chart shows that Japanese Government Bonds have completed a massive multi-year top formation to end their secular bull market and are now at their lowest level in more than 5 years.

We expect that there will be sufficient additional weakness over the next few months to take US T-Bond futures below major support defined by the August-2003 and May-2004 lows, but making short-term bets against them doesn't appeal to us. There are two reasons for this. First, bonds are very oversold so there is a significant risk that a sharp counter-trend rebound will temporarily interrupt the decline. Second, there are easier ways to make money than to bet against the world's most manipulated market.

more...

[Festivito]

99. Not including inflation of money supply or deflation of dollar trade value

That's a one-year gap that
starts March '03 and
starts to react March '04, then it
plays catchup to the S&P.
By October '04
1.5% difference, then 1.5 years later,
0.7% difference, and closing.

Personal guess 2007.0101: 1350, 5.25%

[UpInArms]

120. checking the pulse of the ailing dollar

Last trade 88.30 Change -0.31 (-0.35%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.62

Previous Close 88.61 High 88.85

Low 88.18 2006-04-18 15:07:25, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

19. Bank mergers are costing you

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1B517155-975B-42B0-82BA-CFE9714FBA45%7D&symbol=

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- There's more evidence that bank mergers may be bad for your financial health.

A study in the April issue of the Journal of Finance found that in the three years after a merger, competition for loans typically declines. Interest rates the bank charges customers for loans rise significantly and borrowers get smaller loans.

The bottom line of the study by University of California-Los Angeles Prof. Mark J. Garmaise and University of Chicago Prof. Tobias J. Moskowitz: Bank mergers may reduce competition in an area. When there is less competition, loan rates tend to be higher.

The end result is less local construction, lower real estate prices, an influx of poorer households and more property crime. The study's authors conclude that regulators should apply greater scrutiny to mergers affecting delicate and marginal areas.

This is only the latest of many studies that have analyzed the effects of bank mergers. The FDIC Banking Review in January also reported that there is little evidence that bank mergers benefit either consumers or shareholders.

...more...

[54anickel]

37. Whodathunk? n/t

[54anickel]

20. Bulls Are Running to India, Raising Fears of a Bubble

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/worldbusiness/18india.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1145364098-ybyH8PKjUPDF8HIG8hfZjw

snip>

Thanks to investors like Mr. Reddy, the bellwether Sensex stock market index in Mumbai soared 45 percent in 2005, and it has already risen 20 percent in the first three months of this year. The impressive gains have been spurred by India's surging economy, which posted a growth rate of 7.5 percent last year.

At the same time, the country has attracted more overseas investors, who poured $10.7 billion into Indian equities in 2005, and $4.13 billion in just the first quarter of this year.

But analysts and fund managers are cautioning that the stock market pendulum may have swung too far, and they warn that some companies are highly overvalued.

As a result of such concerns, the Sensex recorded a two-day decline of 3.6 percent last Wednesday and Thursday, the steepest in six months. The markets were closed Friday for Good Friday, but investors saw a buying opportunity Monday, sending the index up 2.7 percent.

"India has never had this kind of sustained economic growth; therefore, price-to-earnings ratios of companies are in uncharted territory right now," said Satish V. Betadpur, president and chief investment officer of Anagha Capital Management, where he manages $120 million in global hedge fund money.

more...

[AnneD]

49. IMHO

India is overvalued, China is not. That is just my sense of things based on my readings, travels, and conversations. My opinion and $1.00 still won't get you :donut: in some places.

[UpInArms]

21. Boeing to Scale Back Wichita Operations - layoff 900

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/18boeing.html?ex=1303012800&en=a2c1c011d8f6edb3&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

{free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WICHITA, Kan., April 17 (AP) — Citing cuts in military spending, Boeing announced Monday that it would revamp its Wichita operations and lay off some 900 workers, or about 25 percent of the plant's work force.

The company said the factory here would focus on military 747 and wide-body aircraft modifications and upgrades. It also plans to continue its engineering center, focusing work on the B-52 and other military and civil aviation businesses.

"Today, we are telling our employees that we must right-size our operations for available work performed in Wichita," Derek McLuckey, general manager for Boeing Integrated Defense Systems there, said in a statement. "And we are telling them that we now have to execute a revised business plan in order to ensure our future."

Boeing said it would issue 60-day layoff notices to 360 workers on Tuesday. An additional 240 employees will be laid off by the end of July, and 300 more jobs cut in mid-November. By the beginning of 2007, the Wichita plant will have about 2,700 workers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Very Curious: Citing Security, C.I.A. Seeks Suit's Dismissal

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/us/nationalspecial3/18hearing.html?ex=1303012800&en=6ac20f862493dfd2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

State secrets are involved in a lawsuit against the Central Intelligence Agency brought by the wife of a former covert operative, lawyers for the agency said yesterday in a New York federal court, arguing that national security will be at risk if the case is allowed to proceed.

At a hearing in Federal District Court in Manhattan, the lawyers asked Judge Laura Taylor Swain to dismiss the case, saying that all of the vital information in the suit was highly classified and could not be disclosed to the woman or her lawyers.

The agency has already combed the documents presented to date in the suit, which was filed last September. Among the information the C.I.A. classified and blacked out were the names of the woman bringing the suit and of her husband, most of the events in dispute, and the name of a second government agency that the woman is suing.

In a declaration presented in court, the director of the C.I.A., Porter J. Goss, said he had determined that classified information about the woman and her husband was "so integral" to the suit that any further court action would require secrets to be disclosed. Publishing any details of the case would cause "serious damage" to national security, Mr. Goss said.

Invoking an unusual state secrets privilege, lawyers for the agency asked Judge Swain to dismiss the case immediately.

<snip>

The original suit Mr. Zaid filed, now extensively edited with the agency's blackouts, said the woman's husband was in the securities business, with a New York Stock Exchange license, when he became an undercover agent for the C.I.A. The agency sent him to several foreign countries, then brought him back to the United States in 1999. Sometime later he was "summarily separated" from the C.I.A.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Wow, very curious indeed. I'm surprised this couple wasn't

"disappeared" before they were able to file suit - well in a way I guess she and her children were. Very strange.

[54anickel]

23. Japan's giant sucking sound

http://atimes.com/atimes/Japan/HD18Dh01.html

On March 9, the central Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled that the era of free money, known as "quantitative easing", would soon begin to wind down. This change has spurred broad international commentary focused mainly on the timing of Japan's return to normal interest-rate-directed monetary policy and the broad implications of this return for both Japan's economy and the global economy.

Much more significant, the end of quantitative easing will pull an enormous amount of liquidity from Asian and US stocks and bonds, prompting widespread asset price depreciation and yen revaluation.

snip>

The $300 billion question: Where did the liquidity go?
The cash available to Japan's financial institutions, via their reserve accounts with the BOJ, was not limited to just the nominal increase in liquidity in these accounts from 50 trillion yen to more than 300 trillion yen. Rather, this excess liquidity was made continuously available to the financial system, like an inexhaustible fountain, for nearly three years.

Though this open monetary tap provided more than enough liquidity to increase the supply of domestic credit, demand for domestic credit remained very weak. Total credit in Japan contracted, in nominal terms, by 4% in 2003 and 3% in 2004. Domestic credit stopped contracting in 2005, when total credit growth was flat, before finally beginning to grow in February and March of this year - the first such growth since 1998.

The flood of cash into Japan's financial system didn't go anywhere in 2003 and 2004. Financial institutions used this cash to bolster their own balance sheets - a process that greatly improved the creditworthiness of Japan's banks. This sharply reduced counterparty risk for foreign banks, which began earnestly to tap into Japan's never-ending supply of liquidity. Using a Japanese bank as a counterparty, foreign banks borrowed huge amounts of yen at very low interest rates in 2005. This yen was swapped for foreign currencies and invested in other Asian countries as well as in the United States.

more...

[54anickel]

53. Gotta point this little bit out from the article before I head out to do

some chores. Hope to be able to check back in between chores and running errands later. :hi:

As Japan's excess liquidity is mopped up, investors that borrowed Japanese yen to fund investments in other countries will find it impossible to renew their swaps. Because international currency and interest-rate swap liquidity is very concentrated in tenors of one year or less (the life of a swap is called its tenor), the majority of these swaps will mature this year. Consequently, investors will be forced to sell the equity and fixed-income assets that these swaps financed. In addition, these investors will have to buy yen to repay their yen loans.

The end of quantitative easing is another factor that will propel a sharp correction in global investment asset values this year. It will also produce substantial yen appreciation against most currencies.

[UpInArms]

24. Bush picks Portman for budget, Schwab for trade

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T125059Z_01_N18342386_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-PORTMAN-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Tuesday will announce U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman as his choice to become White House budget director, a senior administration official said.

Bush will also announce he has picked Portman's deputy, Susan Schwab, to become the next U.S. trade representative, the official said.

Bush was to make the announcements at 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT).

Portman, a former member of the House of Representatives from Ohio who helped Bush win that critical state in the 2004 presidential election, would succeed Josh Bolten as budget director.

...more...

I wonder if Susan is related to Charles?

[54anickel]

34. I thought that name was familiar. She's the great free-trader that was

getting a lot of TV time when Clinton was opening the doors to China. She was with the U of Maryland then.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june00/trade_offs_5-25.html

Looks like Bush picked her up as deputy Treasury secretary in 2003 http://www.newsdesk.umd.edu/facts/mm/02_03/jul.cfm

Dean Susan Schwab Picked as Deputy Treasury Secretary
Susan Schwab, dean of the School of Public Affairs, was nominated by President Bush to become deputy Treasury secretary. Previously, in April, Schwab was nominated by the President to be first vice president of the Export-Import Bank of the United States.

[UpInArms]

36. here's what I found:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EUY/is_39_11/ai_n15801266?pi=cal

President George W. Bush has nominated Susan Schwab to be a deputy USTR. Schwab began her career as an agricultural trade negotiator at USTR in 1977, and during the past 25 years, she has worked at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo; for former Sen. John Danforth (R-Mo.); as assistant secretary of Commerce and director general of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service in the administration of George H.W. Bush; and as director of corporate business development for Motorola. Between 1995 and 2004, when she assumed the presidency of the USM Foundation, she served as dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

129. Way To Go Natalie!

I realize this is not the same Portman, but one can dream.

I've seen her interviewed anyways, and I'm sure she could probably do a better job than whichever "Crony" that King george picked.

[UpInArms]

25. Glatfelter to close Wisconsin facility

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T113111Z_01_WEN4722_RTRIDST_0_TIMBER-GLATFELTER-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - Specialty papers maker Glatfelter (GLT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it will close a facility in Neenah, Wisconsin, by June 2006.

The company will take pretax charges of $60 million to $65 million to account for the closure.

[UpInArms]

30. Krispy Kreme Sees Losses

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/18donut.html?ex=1303012800&en=012ce5bd83537399&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts said yesterday that it expected to report a net loss for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2006 after sales dropped.

Revenue dropped 26 percent, to $120 million, in the fourth quarter, and fell 24 percent, to $540 million, in the fiscal year, which ended Jan. 29, Krispy Kreme said in a regulatory filing. The company did not provide income figures in the filing.

Krispy Kreme said its financial results continued to be "adversely affected by the substantial costs" for legal and regulatory matters. It said sales were dropping because the company was losing revenue from franchises and store closings.

...a bit more...

[silverlib]

40. Why did Carlyle buy them?

For the life of me, I can't figure it out. Why would Carlyle by Krispy Kreme/Bask n Robbins?

[ozymandius]

54. They purchased Dunkin' Donuts.

Carlyle Bidding On Food Chains

The Carlyle Group is among the final bidders for the Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins restaurant chains, in what would be the first U.S. consumer retail investment for a company built around its expertise in defense, aerospace and telecommunications.

Carlyle has been eyeing Dunkin' Brands Inc. since this summer and has joined with Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Bain Capital LLC, both of Boston, to submit a bid for the French-owned food chains, according to two sources familiar with the bid who spoke on condition of anonymity because the bidding process is supposed to remain private.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/08/AR2005120802033.html

[AnneD]

55. I said at the time...

that I thought those businesses were bought for their money laundering capability. I know it sounds :tinfoilhat: but I think not.

[wordpix]

89. I think you're onto something. The losses might help the bottom line

[AnneD]

93. Not only that but.....

these businesses are world wide and deal mainly in cash (small amounts) and can provide the perfect cover. This was one way that Al Quida moved their money around. They established front stores that sold ethnic food stuffs (honey, spices, oil, and nuts). Remember, mafia families frequently started with olive oil or other such dry goods.

[wordpix]

88. they're making US soldiers live on white flour, sugar and grease now?

[UpInArms]

31. I.R.S. Says Symantec Owes almost $1 Billion in back taxes

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/18soft.html?ex=1303012800&en=46e186ef4b70d94e&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Symantec, which makes computer security software, said yesterday that the Internal Revenue Service claimed that the company owed $900 million in back taxes as a result of its recent acquisition of Veritas Software.

Symantec, which is based in Cupertino, Calif., said it would protest the assessment. Symantec said the I.R.S. claimed it owed additional taxes, plus interest and penalties, for the 2000 and 2001 tax years based on an audit of Veritas.

Symantec's shares have tumbled in recent months on investor concern over executive departures and questions over the Veritas deal.

...more...

Wow! Those mergers always are so good!

[ozymandius]

33. pre-open blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures indications are off their best levels but the stage remains set for the market to open on an upbeat note as investors embrace tame inflation data and continue to digest strong earnings. Within the last 30 minutes, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Boston Scientific (BSX) have joined the ranks of several other notable names beating analysts' expectations and improving sentiment following recent market weakness.

[UpInArms]

39. 9:35 EST Doing the happy dance in LaLa Land

Dow 11,114.52 +40.74 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,321.77 +10.61 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,290.79 +5.46 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.984 -0.23 (-0.46%)

NYSE Volume 76,934,000
Nasdaq Volume 77,153,000

[UpInArms]

35. Hot Temperatures Force Blackouts in Texas

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/custom/newsroom/sns-ap-power-blackouts,1,431688.story

HOUSTON -- Faced with the prospect of another day of record heat, the state's power suppliers urged Texans to cut down on their electricity use in the hopes of avoiding more rolling blackouts.

Power companies throughout the state imposed the blackouts Monday because of an electricity shortage during unseasonably hot weather. Thousands of people were caught without electricity for short periods of time as highs reached into the low 100s, and police rushed to direct traffic during the afternoon rush hour.

Highs were expected to reach into the upper 90s on Tuesday before returning to a more normal range in the 70s and 80s on Wednesday.

"We are asking everybody to pitch in and do the best they can by minimizing electric consumption between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., the peak hours," said Paul Wattles, spokesman for Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the state's electricity grid.

As much as 15 percent of the state's power supply was already off line for seasonal maintenance to brace for the summer's energy usage peaks, but four power generating plants also shut down unexpectedly, Wattles said. Officials were pushing to get power flowing again from the generators that had been idled.

...more...

reminds me of California in 2000 :eyes:

[AnneD]

58. Yes but we have a lot of solar energy....

You can place your dinner in tinfoil and lay it on the dash of you car and it will be nicely cooked by the time you get home in the evening. You can baste eggs on the sidewalk. And solar tea....I haven't made tea on the stove top in years.

Say, why did they call it a blackout...it looked pretty bright to me.....

[UpInArms]

41. Treas. Dept Official: US hedge fund industry now less risky

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T133249Z_01_N18347787_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-FUNDS-UPDATE-1.XML

ATLANTA, April 18 (Reuters) - As corporate and public pension funds follow high net worth individuals and endowments into hedge fund investments, these vehicles have become less risky, a Treasury Department official said on Tuesday.

Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment pools that use strategies such as short selling and derivatives trading that differ from traditional equity and bond funds. During three years of U.S. market weakness between 2000 and 2003, institutional investors sought higher returns at hedge funds, with the industry growing over a few years to around 8,000 firms with more than $1 trillion under management.

"I think it is safe to say that as pensions continue to invest in hedge funds, the industry will further adjust and further impose upon itself an institutional risk management regime which should -- at some level -- mitigate risk," Assistant Treasury Secretary Emil Henry said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference in Atlanta.

Among signs pointing to greater institutionalization of the hedge fund industry, Henry said investors are now demanding more transparency. The growth of funds of hedge funds has also subjected hedge funds to greater scrutiny, he said.

Treasury will continue to monitor any potential for systemic risks associated with hedge funds and will focus in particular on credit derivatives, Henry said.

...more...

:rofl:

These guys should just take their comedic act on the road!

[UpInArms]

44. Printing Press Hums:Fed adds temporary bank reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T133804Z_01_N18337097_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.750 percent, at the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[bain_sidhe]

80. Is it just me, or have they been doing this every night...

since they stopped publishing the M3? And isn't that new? I don't remember them doing it every night *before* then - but it could be that my memory's faulty.

Anybody know?

[UpInArms]

81. hiya bain_sidhe!

here's a site you'll enjoy

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

this guy has been tracking the printing presses since 9/11 - he notice they were running abnormally high soon thereafter and has been charting it ever since :D

:hi:

edited to add the Fed activity right after 9/11:

Fed adds combined $22.75 bln in temporary reserves	Wed 09/19/01	$22.75 billion	
Fed adds $27.6 billion in temporary bank reserves	Wed 09/19/01	$27.60 billion	
Fed adds $36.25 bln in temporary bank reserves		Tue 09/18/01	$36.25 billion	
Fed adds $57.25 billion in temporary bank reserves	Mon 09/17/01	$57.25 billion	
Fed adds $81.25 bln in temporary banking reserves	Fri 09/14/01	$81.25 billion	
Fed adds $70.2 bln in temporary bank reserves		Thu 09/13/01	$70.20 billion	
Fed adds $38.25 bln to U.S. banking reserves		Wed 09/12/01	$38.25 billion

[bain_sidhe]

83. I'd probably enjoy it more

If I understood it! I mean, I see all the repurchase agreements, but I can't tell if it's high, low, good, bad or sideways.

And :hi: backatcha!

[UpInArms]

91. here's an attempt to make some sense of it

in the archives links for the period of Jan-Feb 2002

the debt as of Jan 27, 2002 was $5,932,251,321,548.21 (http://www.americaheldhostile.com/ed012902.shtml)

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res_03.html

the Fed added temporary reserves 29 times - the debt at the end of that period was

National Debt $6,003,453,016,583.85

this added approximately $71 billion to the debt

now, let's go to Jan-Feb 2006

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res_27.html

the debt at the beginning of that period was

National Debt $8,153,881,581,212.99

the Fed added temporary reserves 46 times - the debt at the end of that period was

National Debt $8,269,885,515,386.04

this added approximately $116 billion to the debt

JMHO, but it looks like it is definitely moving faster and in a more furious manner.

[Roland99]

67. The players will watch themselves. Nifty.

[UpInArms]

68. Fed's Moskow: Many worry about future of Midwest auto sector

11:05 AM ET 4/18/06 MOSKOW: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AUTO INDUSTY DOMINATES MIDWEST

11:05 AM ET 4/18/06 FED'S MOSKOW: MIDWEST HAS LOST 17% OF AUTO JOBS SINCE 2001

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B398C4351%2D47FE%2D431A%2DB1BF%2D5DFA5B739AC2%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Uncertainty about the automotive industry's future is "foremost on the minds of many in the Midwest" given recent changes in the sector, said Michael Moskow, the president of the Chicago Fed Bank. The traditional auto states of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio have lost 17% of their jobs in the motor vehicle and parts industries since 2001, Moskow said at the start of a Fed conference on the sector. Moskow said the difficulties of the Big Three automakers and their suppliers reflect a confluence of factors, including rising costs of inputs, a shrinking customer base, high labor costs and heightened import competition. "As these developments play out, the industry and its traditional core region face a painful adjustment," Moskow said.

[UpInArms]

42. For Enron foes, some similarities

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0604150262apr16,1,3213254.story

HOUSTON -- They grew up in Illinois with high-achieving older brothers, went to college in the Deep South on academic scholarships, and then moved on to Harvard.

Both have worked practically non-stop over the past two years preparing for the battle of wits set to unfold between them here as the Enron Corp. criminal trial reaches a pivotal point next week.

With one of the best young prosecutors at the Justice Department facing off against the defiant former chief executive of Enron, the stakes hardly could be higher.

Sean Berkowitz, the 38-year-old head of the Enron Task Force, must succeed in undermining Jeffrey Skilling's carefully crafted testimony, or the government crackdown on white-collar crime stands to lose its biggest case. Skilling, the 52-year-old former chief executive of Enron, must fend off his relentless fellow Harvard alum, or face the prospect of more than a decade in prison. Neither man is accustomed to losing.

It will be a cross-examination for the books, predicted John C. Coffee Jr., a Columbia Law School professor who has tracked the case. "I think it will be long and extensive and it will make all the difference," he said. "You won't see a flash of lightning. It will be like a slow drip of water."

...more...

[AnneD]

64. Sean Berkowitz...

has done a great job of bitch slapping Skilling every time skilling has the nerve to argue with him. Sean is good and quick on his feet.

[UpInArms]

79. Skilling Grows Tense During Cross-Examination in Enron Fraud Trial

The lying crapweasel blows his cool :evilgrin:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=1855039

HOUSTON - Former Enron Corp. Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling grew tense Tuesday when challenged about whether a significant portion of the energy company's assets and investments underperformed more than a year before Enron crashed in scandal in late 2001.

<snip>

Skilling told jurors he invested $60,000 in the business. But Berkowitz presented canceled checks and a copy of a wire transfer that showed the ex-CEO invested three times that much.

"$180,000, is that correct?" Berkowitz asked.

"I guess so," Skilling said glumly.

<snip>

Other Skilling statements Berkowitz challenged Monday included the ex-CEO's insistence that his Enron stock sales that grossed $63 million in 2000 and 2001 were proper, and his assessment of the worth of Enron's hodgepodge of international assets when he abruptly resigned from the company in mid-August 2001.

...more...

[AnneD]

86. Sean Berkowitz...

bitch slaps Skilling again! Yesterday, SB drew Skilling into admiting that he talked to his lawyer, and about the jury and before you knew it SB had the lawyer's webpage on the screen and the lawyer's webpage highlighted jury 'influencing' abilities. Needless to say the jury was on the edge of their seat for that one! Can't wait to see him latch into Ken Lay.

[54anickel]

45. High costs of child care can lead to lifestyle changes, adjustments

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2006-04-18-child-costs-usat_x.htm

snip>

The costs of day care, preschools and nannies now consume so much of families' incomes that working parents are basing major decisions about their jobs and families on how much care they can afford. The costs are leading to wrenching choices: Job hunters are seeking out employers that offer subsidized child care, some parents are relocating to cheaper housing, and some are working more than they like so they can afford child care costs.

Nearly 12 million children under age 5 are in some type of regular child care each week, and the challenge to find and afford that care intensifies this time of year: Nearly 40% of employees say they spend more than 12 hours involved in arranging for their children's summer child care, according to Chicago-based employee assistance provider ComPsych, which also reports that calls about the issue peak in March and April. Affording care is always a top concern. Average child care fees for one infant range from $3,803 to $13,480 a year, according to the National Association of Child Care Resource and Referral Agencies, a network of more than 850 child care resource and referral centers based in Arlington, Va. The costs vary widely based on where a family lives. In every region of the country, average annual child care fees for an infant are higher than the average amount families spend on food each year, the study found.

To afford average-priced infant care in a center, a two-parent family would need to spend 10.6% of household income each year. Single parents would have to pay nearly $3 of every $10 they earn. Some states where child care is least affordable, based on average costs for a 4-year-old in a center: New York, Minnesota, California and Massachusetts.

snip>

Wages low for caregivers

Despite the high prices for parents, wages are often on the lower end for the 1.3 million child care workers in the USA. Median hourly earnings for child care workers were $8.06 an hour in May 2004. The middle 50% earned between $6.75 and $10.01 an hour. The lowest 10% earned less than $5.90, and the highest 10% earned more than $12.34, according to the Department of Labor. The current federal minimum wage is $5.15 an hour.

While the child care costs are hitting middle-income earners, the working poor often bear most of the burden, and these families are more likely to wind up with lower-quality care arrangements. They might work shifts that make child care options more limited, and they might spend a greater percentage of their take-home pay on child care costs.

much more with state-by-state chart of average costs...

[Jemmons]

46. This seem a bit more that random $-fluctuations:

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=EUR&amt=1&t=5d

[skids]

60. It may be just me seeing things...

...but lately the dollar seems to be *very* tightly tied to the bond yeild. You know, like we'd expect in a normal world, which is what we have definitely not been living in.

[54anickel]

56. Market Action and Information (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060417.htm

snip>

Presently, the valuation of the market remains unusually rich (see recent weekly comments especially as they relate to price/earnings ratios here). Meanwhile, interest rate action is unfavorable, and we've seen a long period of “distribution” and gradually deteriorating internals. For example, fewer and fewer stocks have been participating in each successive (marginal) new high in the major indices, as measured by the number of stocks above their 10-week averages, the McClellan Oscillator (a measure based on market breadth), the number of stocks achieving new highs, and so forth.

In a richly valued market with upward interest rate pressures, it's a particularly unfavorable sign when within just a few days of new highs in the major indices, leadership “flips” so that the number of individual stocks achieving new 52-week lows actually exceeds the number achieving new 52-week highs. That's exactly what happened last week. The S&P 500 achieved a fresh bull market high on April 5th , at 1311.56, yet new lows have already flipped above new highs.

Equally important, the number of new lows and new highs have both been relatively large, which is an indication of wide internal divergences among individual stocks. Last week, 189 NYSE stocks hit new highs and 280 hit new lows, both representing more than 5% of issues traded. Much of this can be traced to interest-sensitive stocks such as utilities and preferred stocks, but as I've noted before, early breakdowns in bonds and utilities were the main precursors of the 1987 and 1990 market plunges.

Hindenburgs

I've noted often that a great deal of the information conveyed by markets is contained in “divergences” between securities. While investors shouldn't read too much into any indicator, there's an interesting signal that has enough validity as a measure of divergence that it's worth mentioning here. Think of it as slightly more than entertainment value but far less than a reliable guide to investment.

The signal is based on new highs and new lows, and is cheerfully called a Hindenburg (the actual name given to it by Kennedy Gammage is the “Hindenburg Omen” but that strikes me as far too, well, ominous, because it's certainly not a sufficient condition for a market decline). It's a relatively unusual event that has often preceded fairly substantial market declines with a fairly short lead time (usually within 30-60 days, including declines in 1987, 1990, 1998, 2000 and 2001), but has sometimes proved to be meaningless or insignificant as well (such as a cluster of signals in September 2005, among others).

snip>

As it happens, we observed a Hindenburg on April 7th (just 2 days after the market high) and another one on April 10...

more...

[UpInArms]

63. Carl Bernstein (Watergate Journalist) urges Watergate-style investigation

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12361384/

LOS ANGELES - Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Carl Bernstein, who with Bob Woodward helped expose President Nixon's role in the Watergate scandal, Monday called for the U.S. Senate to open a full-scale probe of President Bush's conduct in office.

Writing in the online edition of Vanity Fair magazine, Bernstein said that during Watergate "there was understandable reluctance in the Congress to begin a serious investigation of the Nixon presidency. Then there came a time when it was unavoidable. That time in the Bush presidency has arrived."

He said the investigation should concentrate on the run-up to war in Iraq, the leak of covert CIA agent Valerie Plame's identity to the press and the administration's response to Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

and here's a poll:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12361506

current numbers:

Should the Senate open a Watergate-style investigation of President Bush's conduct in office? * 4995 responses
Yes, this administration has hidden and manipulated information at every turn. It must be called to account.
94%
No, this administration has been making its best effort to deal with many bad situations. We don't need a Senate witch hunt.
6.1%

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

131. We Don't Need No Stinkin' Investigations....

It's only 94% anyways, not like it's a 49% mandate.

Unfortunately that was from yesterday, and the poll is gone. Today's poll is much more important. "Do you think natalie holloway case will ever be solved?"

Monday---Should Congress investigate president?

Tuesday---Will they ever find out how some airhead blonde college chick got killed?

Wednesday---Will the world end in a nuclear holocaust?

Thursday---Will tom cruise make a good dad?

[UpInArms]

133. and here I am anxiously awaiting Friday's big question?

Will this be the year of the shark?

:hi:

[UpInArms]

70. U.S. CDO downgrades dominate in Q1 - S&P

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T150812Z_01_N18347240_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CDOS-SANDP.XML

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - Almost three times as many U.S. collateralized debt obligations were downgraded in the first quarter than upgraded due to some deals being negatively impacted by the worsening quality of certain credits, Standard & Poor's said on Tuesday.

In addition, the number of upgrades in the first quarter was the lowest since the second quarter of 2004.

The number of ratings actions overall was moderate, however, and no simple generalizations can be made by looking just at the ratings changes, the ratings agency said. This is because S&P still has 54 CDOs on review for downgrade and 25 on review for upgrade as of the end of March, said Ramki Muthukrishnan, credit analyst at S&P.

A total of 28 deals were downgraded, while 10 deals were upgraded, S&P said. Of the downgrades, 17 were synthetic structures, which are backed by credit default swaps. That was down from a record 43 downgrades of synthetic CDOs in the fourth quarter, it said.

CDOs pool assets such as bonds, loans, asset-backed securities or credit default swaps and are divided into pieces of varying risk and payments.

"Negative credit migration in the corporate sector, including the bankruptcy filing of Dana Corp., continued to affect synthetic CDOs during the first quarter," S&P credit analyst Jimmy Kobylinski said in a press release.

...more...

[UpInArms]

71. 11:23 EST Markets lovin' high oil, gold and war

Dow 11,154.14 +80.36 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,326.20 +15.04 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,293.77 +8.44 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.997 -0.10 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 808,147,000
Nasdaq Volume 692,858,000

11:00 am : Market is holding steady at higher levels as buyers rally around a rebound in chip stocks. Among the 14 out of 19 components in the PHLX Semi Index trading higher and helping pare some of yesterday's 1.5% decline, Micron Technology (MU 15.73 +0.61) is leading the charge with a 4.0% surge after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight. Texas Instruments (TXN 33.36 +0.68), which reports Q1 earnings after the bell, has been another source of early support. DJ30 +56.75 NASDAQ +11.90 SOX +1.0% SP500 +6.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1015/1715/560 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 846/2145/454 mln

10:30 am : Indices continue to sport early gains with spirited leadership coming from a number of blue chips. On the Dow, gains of more than 2% from Alcoa (AA 34.79 +0.79) and Honeywell (HON 43.83 +0.95), a 1.4% surge from ExxonMobil (XOM 62.90 +0.85) and a 1.4% climb for IBM (IBM 82.77 +1.13) ahead of its earnings report tonight are also providing upside leadership. Meanwhile, Citigroup (C 48.22 -0.13) has turned negative and General Electric (GE 33.24 -0.05) is still struggling to recover any of the 1.8% it lost yesterday.DJ30 +57.11 NASDAQ +12.17 SP500 +7.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 964/1666/418 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 762/2133/332 mln

[specimenfred1984]

73. Fed Speaks, Fed Pumps -- Fascism at its Finest

--- The comments from Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, and the wholesale inflation report boosted hopes the Federal Reserve may end its series of interest-rate increases sooner rather than later.

***

Stocks rallied after Yellen said inflation should remain well contained in the future even if inflation risks are currently tilted "slightly" to the upside. She also said she expects energy prices to stabilize. ---

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9CAC9062%2DC79A%2D433C%2DBFF6%2D210872B96AB7%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo


Ahhhhhh, the stench of fraud wafting up from a lying pile of sht, just what our corrupt markets needed.

[UpInArms]

74. 12:33 EST FedSpew does its trick

Dow 11,206.65 +132.87 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq 2,338.98 +27.82 (+1.20%)
S&P 500 1,299.29 +13.96 (+1.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.982 -0.25 (-0.50%)

NYSE Volume 1,186,140,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,037,532,000

[JNelson6563]

75. Yay!! Ponies for everybody!!

Step right up!! Everyone's a winner today at the Lucky Strike Casino! :toast:

Still glad to have long been long on gold.

Julie

[ozymandius]

78. Yay! I'm gonna be a cowboy! Look at 'em go!

Dow 11,199.69 +125.91 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,338.75 +27.59 (+1.19%)
S&P 500 1,299.02 +13.69 (+1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 49.78 -0.29 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 1,222,685,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,072,719,000

[Roland99]

82. 1:09pm.... YEE HAW!!!!

DJIA 11,211.39 +137.61 +1.24%
Nasdaq 2,344.21 +33.05 +1.43%
S&P 500 1,300.84 +15.51 +1.21%
Dow Util 388.77 +5.93 +1.55%
NYSE 8,341.49 +99.34 +1.21%
AMEX 1,979.92 +20.21 +1.03%
Russell 2000 763.29 +13.82 +1.84%
Semcond 513.77 +13.33 +2.66%
Gold future 620.60 +1.80 +0.29%
30-Year Bond 5.07% -0.01 -0.18%
10-Year Bond 4.99% -0.02 -0.40%

[wordpix]

85. what's this irrational exuberance about? High oil prices? Nuke arms race?

[AnneD]

90. My guess....

Last minute IRA contributions and Treasury is flush with money squeezed from the dieing middle class.

[specimenfred1984]

92. Markets are Pure Corporate & Gov't Frauds Now

They have been 100% manipulated for 2 years and counting.

Banks, derivatives, the Fed, corruption, propaganda, bubbles: all the things that lead to a great big crash and following depression.

Now if the fascist Torture Inc. war machine can just keep inventing wars, maybe this massive fraud can keep going for a couple more years.

[Zynx]

138. Market crashes do not cause depressions.

They never have. Since most of the wealth in the markets is not being used in the economy anyway at any given time, a large decline has little material impact. If it did, the 2002 period from March until October with a 30-35% decline would have caused a major depression.

If one studies the history of the Great Depression closely, they would find that the economy was already in decline months before the market kicked the bucket.

[UpInArms]

76. Systemic risk has grown in U.S.- study

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T162921Z_01_N18361704_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RISK.XML

ATLANTA, April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. financial firms have grown riskier in the last 30 years and while they are individually less likely to falter, the overall industry is more exposed to systemic risk, a study out on Tuesday found.

Presented to a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the paper examined volatility in banks and other financial institutions by studying equity price movements.

Regulators are trying to understand where the financial system is vulnerable to disruption and how this might impact the underlying economy, with the Fed anxious to preserve its twin goals of low inflation and sustainable economic growth.

The paper's authors, Kevin Stiroh from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Joel Houston from the University of Florida, found there was less spill-over from shocks in the financial sector to the real economy than sometimes feared.

"(This) is consistent with the classical view that finance is primarily a 'veil' with little effect on the real economy," they said, although they also noted this had not held for the period between 1985 and 1994. Then, massive bad loans on bank books made lenders wary, making it harder to borrow and crimping U.S. economic activity in a so-called credit crunch.

...more...

[UpInArms]

100. 2:04 EST Champagne Corks Poppin'!

Dow 11,233.71 +159.93 (+1.44%)
Nasdaq 2,349.47 +38.31 (+1.66%)
S&P 500 1,303.31 +17.98 (+1.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.984 -0.23 (-0.46%)

NYSE Volume 1,605,908,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,413,989,000

1:30 pm : Little changed over the past hour for the blue chip averages, but the Nasdaq continues to power ahead. Tech has been strong across the board, with a 2.5% surge in semiconductor providing the biggest lift to the Composite. Non-tech related areas providing support for the index include biotech (e.g. AMGN, BIIB, GENZ, and GILD), retail (e.g. COST, SHLD, PETM, SPLS, ROST, and URBN) and human resources (e.g. MNST).BTK +1.2% DJ30 +131.25 NASDAQ +33.49 SP500 +15.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 937/2025/1.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 770/2407/999 mln

[RawMaterials]

101. Pennies for scrap: it's good cents

IT could soon be worthwhile for Americans to melt down their pennies for scrap, if zinc and copper prices continue their current rate of increase.

Copper prices have risen 30 per cent this year, and zinc is up 55 per cent - a rise of about $US550 a tonne in a little more than three weeks.

Another rise of the same magnitude would make the metal content in the US 1c coin worth more than its face value.

There are 160 pennies - also known as a 1c coin - in a pound, worth a face value of $US1.60. With each penny made of 97.5 per cent zinc and 2.5 per cent copper, based on current prices the metal value is worth about $US1.36.

Therefore another 25c a pound rise in zinc, or about $US551 a tonne, would see the metal value of the US penny worth more than the monetary value.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/printpage/0,5942,18786863,00.html


and if thouse pennites are pre 1982 the deal is even better

1982 - 1982 - Lincoln Cent The rising price of copper finally took its toll on the Lincoln cent in 1982. The composition in 1982 was changed to an alloy of 99.2 percent zinc and 0.8 percent copper, plated by pure copper - making the total composition 97.5 percent zinc and 2.5 percent copper. The year was marked by more than the composition. There were small and large date cents of both the old and new composition from both Philadelphia and Denver, creating what was literally a collection of seven 1982 cents.

coppper is 2.816 a lb

so your 1.60 of pre 1982 pennies is worth $2.81 s


http://www.pennies.org/history/eight.html

[Changenow]

102. Someone humor me please

I've been out.

What the hell is going on? The dollar is dropping, gold is through the roof, there is inflation and bad housing news, but the dow is up?


What did I miss?

[UpInArms]

104. The Fed is saying that interest rate hikes have gone the way of

the dinosaurs.

Market having ecstacy attack - dollar has lost all interest - gold and oil are flying out the window because of inflation (loss of buying power of dollar is hidden inflation) and the oil situation because the Leaker-in-Chief is wagging his nucular dick.

[RawMaterials]

106. This is the best post

:toast:

:yourock: UIA


"
Market having ecstacy attack - dollar has lost all interest - gold and oil are flying out the window because of inflation (loss of buying power of dollar is hidden inflation) and the oil situation because the Leaker-in-Chief is wagging his nucular dick."

we need a best all time quotes section in the DU

[Changenow]

110. Thanks.

But can't banks still raise their rates? So people (and foreign nations) stop investing in US bonds, what's to stop my local banker from increasing his rates for loans and deposits?

I may be revealing myself as a simpleton, but at least I'm an anonymous internet poster.

[Roland99]

105. CPI came in at 0.1% so the markets are going nuts about no more rate hikes

:eyes:


Madness.


Pure madness.

[rfranklin]

108. As long as you don't use food or fuel you're A-Ok!

I now weigh 98 lbs. How much longer can I go without food?

[Changenow]

111. All consumer goods are up

this is just bullshit. No one believes that there is no inflation, it's absurd.

Thanks.

[Roland99]

113. Someone posted a thread (in GD, maybe) about paying more for LESS

something about a jar of mayonnaise being a smaller volume but the price being more.


Might be something to do some sleuthing on.

[rfranklin]

115. This has been well-documented by MSM...

Packaging is getting ridiculous. Larger than ever with less than before inside. Some candy bars have shrunk so much when you open the wrapper it looks like the mice got there first.

[Changenow]

116. It's unbelievable how expensive

things have become. Also, there are just no steep discounts to be found anywhere, which is another form of inflation.

My daughter and I went shopping for a couch this weekend. Perhaps it was just the holiday, but business was so slow and the salesmen pestered us so much that we couldn't shop (this was at "better" stores). I felt sorry for them, truly.

How does anyone making a living in the real world believe the government propaganda?

[AnneD]

125. I know I mentioned it here on this thread a while back...

I calculate by unit price when I go grocery shopping and record some of my routine buy (makes a bargin easy to spot). I noticed the change right away. Same box, same price, higher price per unit. Then I remember my Mom complaining about the same thing in the 70's. They have been doing this with increasing regularity for over 2 yrs now.

[specimenfred1984]

107. Corrupt Banks Pay More When Rates are Higher

If rates stop going higher, the banks then have more money to manipulate the stock market.

People/individual investors do not matter, the markets are now 100% corporate-run frauds. In fact, the more bad news for people there is, the better it is for the markets.

It's called fascism.

[fasttense]

109. Just remember how great the stock market was doing just before the

Great Depression.

[Changenow]

112. Where would you put your money

Is there any investment that is worthwhile?

[rfranklin]

114. My prediction: STOCK MARKET will tank by weekend!

This is the ol' pump 'n' dump at work. Remember how the market was acting at the height of the irrational exuberance?

[Changenow]

117. Likely not that soon,

but soon.

[Sammy Pepys]

127. How far? n/t

....

[ozymandius]

118. enter the Witching Hour

3:06
Dow 11,243.07 +169.29 (+1.53%)
Nasdaq 2,347.58 +36.42 (+1.58%)
S&P 500 1,304.06 +18.73 (+1.46%)
10-Yr Bond 49.74 -0.33 (-0.66%)
NYSE Volume 1,984,307,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,739,028,000

2:30 pm : Indices spike to session highs on the heels of encouraging comments within the FOMC minutes. An excerpt from the text reads: "Most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near, and some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much, given the lags in the effects of policy." The news has lent some credence behind the funds futures contract not pricing in a late-June policy hike as much as it did last Friday, knocking the yield on the 10-yr note down as low as 4.95%. However, further commentary noted that the need for "further policy firming would be determined by the implications of incoming information for future activity and inflation." Such data will hit the wires tomorrow morning when the March CPI is released at 8:30 ET. DJ30 +162.65 NASDAQ +35.98 SP500 +17.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 950/2062/1.56 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 718/2498/1.27 bln

[ozymandius]

119. updated blather

3:00 pm : Onward and upward remains the day's driving mantra as widespread buying lifts virtually every sector and the broader market logs its best daily performance since January. Aside from above-average volume providing more conviction behind's today's broad-based move to the upside than limited participation has offered of late, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have also been successful breaching key resistance levels of 11170, 1294 and 2336, respectively.DJ30 +170.23 NASDAQ +36.93 SP500 +18.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 984/2033/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 744/2494/1.38 bln

[UpInArms]

123. US FEC says Freddie Mac to pay $3.8 mln civil fine

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T191049Z_01_WAT005329_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Election Commission on Tuesday said mortgage finance company Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to pay a $3.8 million civil penalty to settle allegations it violated U.S. campaign law.

The FEC said the fine is the largest in its history.

updating link and blurb on edit:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-18T192121Z_01_N18383430_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIE-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Election Commission on Tuesday said mortgage finance company Freddie Mac agreed to pay a $3.8 million civil fine to settle allegations it violated U.S. law and regulations that prohibit corporations from making or facilitating campaign contributions.

The fine is the largest civil penalty ever obtained by the commission in a civil enforcement action, the FEC said.

According to the Federal Election Commission, Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) used corporate resources to facilitate 85 fundraising events that raised about $1.7 million for federal candidates. The FEC said Freddie also contributed $150,000 in 2002 to the Republican Governors Association, money that was later returned.

The fundraisers benefited members of the House Financial Services Committee and other members of Congress, the FEC said.

...more...

history:

http://www.citizen.org/pressroom/release.cfm?ID=1557

excerpt:

During the 2002 election cycle, Delk hosted at least 45 fundraising events for federal officeholders and candidates – many with direct oversight of Freddie Mac. While Delk reported absorbing the costs of dinners at most of the fundraising events as in-kind contributions to the officeholders and candidates, he paid significantly discounted prices for the events, according to news accounts, the low-balling of which kept Delk’s total contributions within federal limits. But if the actual value of the events were charged, Delk would have exceeded these limits.

Delk enlisted Epiphany Productions – primarily a Republican fundraising business – to organize these fundraising events. In at least 19 of the events, Epiphany Productions appears not to have been paid by the campaigns for its services, which would constitute an illegal corporate contribution to the campaigns. In at least another 19 Delk fundraising events, Epiphany productions was paid late – up to 20 months late – and apparently only after news stories reported the questionable fundraising activity.

Freddie Mac, a congressionally chartered mortgage lending company, is subject to oversight by the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Both committees have conducted a series of hearings regarding the business activities of Freddie Mac, especially since Freddie Mac recently has been drawn into controversy due to financial scandals. More than half (24) of the fundraising events organized by Delk have featured as a special guest U.S. Rep. Michael Oxley (R-Ohio), chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and 19 of these events were held explicitly for the benefit of congressional members with oversight responsibility over Freddie Mac.

"The close fundraising relationship between Freddie Mac lobbyist Delk, Epiphany Productions and the congressional oversight committee is a serious source of concern," said Craig Holman, legislative representative for Public Citizen’s Congress Watch. "Freddie Mac’s lobbyist is out there hosting lavish fundraisers for the same members of Congress who are now deciding the company’s future. This is treading near a quid pro quo."

Whatever legislative favors may have been sought, Public Citizen’s analysis strongly suggests that federal campaign finance laws may have been broken in the process. Delk may have exceeded his individual and aggregate contribution limits in unreported in-kind contributions. The discounted value Delk reported for each fundraiser usually ran between $500 and $750 per event. With the help of his wife, Mandy, who paid $6,600 of the fundraising dinner bills, Mitch Delk was able to keep his reported aggregate contributions of $20,100 to federal candidates and committees in 2002 just under the aggregate annual limit of $25,000. But had Delk reported the true cost of the dinners, which may have been at least twice as much as he claimed, Delk is likely to have exceeded both the individual ($1,000) and aggregate ($25,000) limits.

...more...

http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=DC&last=Delk&first=Mitch

Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie MAC/Executive	
RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	$750
primary	06/20/03	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Executive	
VOLUNTEER PAC	$1,000
primary	05/29/03	
Delk, Mitch Mr
Washington, DC 20016
Freddie Mac/Executive	ROYCE, ED MR (R)
House (CA 40)
ED ROYCE FOR CONGRESS	$500
primary	05/14/03	
DELK, MITCH
WASHINGTON, DC 20004
FREDDIE MAC	ISAKSON, JOHN HARDY (R)
Senate - GA
GEORGIANS FOR ISAKSON	$500
primary	04/08/03	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Government Relations	
AMERICAN LIBERTY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	$1,000
primary	03/27/03	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie MAC/Executive	
RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	$750
primary	03/12/03	
DELK, MITCH
WASHINGTON, DC 20004
FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTAGE	BUNNING, JIM (R)
Senate - KY
CITIZENS FOR BUNNING	$500
primary	03/06/03	
DELK, MITCH
WASHINGTON, DC 20004
FREDDIE MAC	SUNUNU, JOHN E (R)
Senate - NH
TEAM SUNUNU	$500
primary	03/01/03	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Vice President Governme	
LEADERSHIP PAC 2006	$750
primary	01/21/03	
Delk, Mitch Mr.
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Senior VP Gov. Relation	MILLER, GARY G. HON. (R)
House (CA 42)
GARY MILLER FOR CONGRESS	$500
general	07/09/02	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac	CAPITO, SHELLEY MOORE (R)
House (WV 02)
SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO FOR CONGRESS	$750
general	06/30/02	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Lobbyist	YOUNG, TOM (R)
House (AL 01)
TOM YOUNG FOR CONGRESS	$500
primary	06/24/02	
Delk Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/sr. vice-president	HARRIS, KATHERINE (R)
Senate - FL
FRIENDS OF KATHERINE HARRIS	$500
primary	06/04/02	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004	
PRO-GROWTH ACTION TEAM (R)	$500
general	06/04/02	
DELK, MITCH
WASHINGTON, DC 20004
FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE	THUNE, JOHN (R)
Senate - SD
JOHN THUNE FOR SOUTH DAKOTA	$500
primary	05/28/02	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie Mac/Sr. VP of Govt Relation	NORTHUP, ANNE M. (R)
House (KY 03)
NORTHUP FOR CONGRESS	$500
primary	05/07/02	
Delk, Mitch
Washington, DC 20004
Freddie MAC/Executive	
AMERICANS FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	$750
primary	03/20/02

...more repuke donations...

[UpInArms]

124. 3:24 EST Stupidity is the word for the day

Dow 11,269.41 +195.63 (+1.77%)
Nasdaq 2,353.54 +42.38 (+1.83%)
S&P 500 1,307.82 +22.49 (+1.75%)
10-Yr Bond 4.974 -0.33 (-0.66%)

NYSE Volume 2,132,530,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,859,460,000

3:00 pm : Onward and upward remains the day's driving mantra as widespread buying lifts virtually every sector and the broader market logs its best daily performance since January. Aside from above-average volume providing more conviction behind's today's broad-based move to the upside than limited participation has offered of late, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have also been successful breaching key resistance levels of 11170, 1294 and 2336, respectively.DJ30 +170.23 NASDAQ +36.93 SP500 +18.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 984/2033/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 744/2494/1.38 bln

[ozymandius]

128. How many suckers do you think are putting their money on the line

today UIA?

Because this rally has the word s-u-c-k-e-r written all over it.

[Roland99]

130. Precious metals hitting new 25-year highs and oil hitting all-time highs

and the stock market skyrocketing upwards to the heavens.


All is well. Walk into the light. The beautiful light.

[UpInArms]

132. brings a song to my mind, Ozy

If you want it, here it is
Come and get it
Make your mind up fast

If you want it anytime I can give it
But you better hurry 'cause it may not last

Did I hear you say that there must be a catch?
Will you walk away from a fool and his money?

If you want it, here it is
Come and get it
But you better hurry 'cause it's going fast

If you want it, here it is
Come and get it
Make your mind up fast

If you want it anytime I can give it
But you'd better hurry 'cause it may not last

Did I hear you say that there must be a catch?
Will you walk away from a fool and his money?

Sonny, if you want it, here it is
Come and get it
But you'd better hurry 'cause it's going fast
You'd better hurry 'cause it's going fast

Woo, fool that is money

Sorry, if you want it, here it is
Come and get it
But you'd better hurry 'cause it's going fast
You'd better hurry 'cause it's going fast
You'd better hurry 'cause it's going fast

The Beatles

[AnneD]

134. Ah yes

Ringo Starr....from the Magic Christian I think.:thumbsup:good choice.

[Zynx]

137. There are precisely two sectors that should have rallied today:

1. Oil
2. Banks

Oil, well that's obvious. Banks since interest rate increases won't go that much farther apparently.

I guess we can add other raw material companies to that list as well since commodities prices are going nuts.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

126. You People Worry Too Much

See....everything is fine. All your posts about how things are not so good, but the markets know better. Haven't you seen the talking heads on CNBC creaming their suits today?

THIS IS THE BIGGEST RALLY SINCE LAST OCTOBER!! I mean, even Cramer can't contain his enthusiasm.

God I Hate this country so much.

[AnneD]

135. I love this country....

I hate the leadership. Those that are cheering today will be surprised and crying tomorrow. And I'll get a good night sleep thank you very much.

[ozymandius]

136. closing numbers to this fine, fine day

Dow 11,268.77 +194.99 (+1.76%)
Nasdaq 2,356.14 +44.98 (+1.95%)
S&P 500 1,307.65 +22.32 (+1.74%)
10-Yr Bond 49.74 -0.33 (-0.66%)
NYSE Volume 2,567,306,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,252,802,000

4:20 pm : A broad-based rally, spurred by tame inflation data, supported by strong earnings and exacerbated by upbeat Fed commentary overshadowed record oil prices, lifted virtually every industry group and closed the indices with their best one-day gains in several months. Further, above-average volume provided even more conviction behind's today's widespread move to the upside.

However, one could argue that some short covering activity ahead of options expiration also played a hand in today's stellar performance as concerns about rising energy and commodity prices continue to linger and underscore our Neutral market view. To wit, crude oil futures climbed 1.3% to a historic high above $71 per barrel. Be that as it may, Energy's leadership (2.5%) was another reason behind the market's resilience to growing concerns that higher energy bills may crimp discretionary spending.

Before the bell, an encouraging PPI report underpinned the tone to the day's relief rally, especially after record high oil and a 25-yr high for gold stoked inflation concerns yesterday. March core PPI was up just 0.1%, easing worries that tight resource utilization in manufacturing was leading to bottlenecks and inflationary pressures. Even though it is far too early to draw any conclusions about earnings trends, with the Q1 reporting season having just started, a batch of better than expected reports from notable blue chip names was another source of market support and lent some credence to expectations of an 11th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth.

Stocks garnered additional momentum midday after San Francisco Fed President Yellen -- a voting FOMC member this year -- said that she is "highly alert" to the chance policy makers may lift rates too high and that the Fed's target rate is "close to a neutral stance." Speaking of the FOMC, the release of the minutes from the Fed's March meeting at 2:00 ET was the icing on the cake. An excerpt from the text read: "Most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near, and some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much, given the lags in the effects of policy." While some on Wall Street argued that speculation of an eventual end to monetary policy was nothing new, it was reassuring to say the least as the Dow at one point was up more than 200 points or nearly 2.0%. Weaker than expected housing starts and building permits, albeit not all that surprising, was also welcome news for bond traders. The yield on the 10-yr note (+06/32), which fell to as low as 4.95% following the FOMC minutes, finished at 4.97%.

With regard to industry leadership, all ten economic sectors took part in today's rally. The Materials sector turned in the best performance (+2.7%) as shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX 69.60 +4.41) hit historic highs after handily beating estimates by 53 cents. Also posting a gain of more than 2.0% was the Industrials sector, which got a huge lift from Honeywell (HON 44.21 +1.33) ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning as well as positive commentary on Caterpillar (CAT 78.95 +2.50).

Technology was strong across the board, led by a 3.4% surge in chip stocks, which underscores our Overweight rating on the sector. All 19 components in the PHLX Semi Index posted gains and more than erased Monday's 1.5% decline, with Micron Technology (MU 16.03 +0.91) leading the charge after it was upgraded at J.P. Morgan and further supported by a 4.0% surge in Texas Instruments (TXN 33.93 +1.25) ahead of its Q1 report after the bell. Financial was another influential leader to the upside benefiting from both a decline in borrowing costs and strong earnings results. Brokers got a lift after Merrill Lynch (MER 79.24 +0.78) beat analysts' forecasts while better than expected earnings from Northern Trust (NTRS 57.26 +4.50) and Mellon Financial (MEL 37.72 +2.22) were sources of support for the asset management group.

Even Health Care, which turned in the day's second lowest performance, gained a very respectable 0.93%. A solid earnings report from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 58.04 +0.39) and an analyst upgrade on Eli Lilly (LLY 54.47 +1.46) helped offset disappointing FY07 guidance from UnitedHealth (UNH 49.80 -1.87). BTK +1.8% DJ30 +194.99 DJTA +2.5% DJUA +2.4% DOT +2.4% NASDAQ +44.98 NQ100 +1.9% R2K +2.7% SOX +3.4% SP400 +2.2% SP500 +22.32 XOI +2.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 872/2182/2.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 699/2587/1.84 bln

[54anickel]

140. Why Bull Markets Go Up Forever

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53541

The following piece documents the remarkably similar reasons why the bull markets of 1929 and 2000 were unique and should run forever.

Despite this reasoning and with remarkable fidelity, they both lasted for 116 months. That's from the top of the last business cycle with the old era of inflation to the euphoric climax of speculation.

NEW FINANCIAL ERAS: 1990s AND 1920s

The enthusiasms in projecting most new financial eras seem to naturally group into four main reasons. The first is the new era itself, followed by the political shift from left to centre as CPI inflation diminishes with rejuvenation in Europe and opening of new consumer markets. Other points are the celebration of high technology and cost-cutting which were prompted by intense price competition in a disinflationary period. The end of the old era of inflation also provided the appearance of new found discipline in monetary policy.

The 1920s examples are from the well-known article by John Moody in the August, 1928 edition of The Atlantic Monthly. The examples from the 1990s were collected as they appeared in the Wall Street Journal.

more... :P

[Zynx]

142. We are not exactly in a bull market right now.

We are still making up a lot of lost ground from the 2000-2002 bear market, which was historically one of the most severe on record. PEs are not terribly out of whack right now and any talk of a major decline on the order of 2000-2002 is poorly based in facts.

[RawMaterials]

145. hows that pg stock you like so much

what isn't it down what 7 bucks in the last month or so?

[Zynx]

146. It's up $26 since I bought it so I'm not complaining.

Besides, I currently have a 13 stock portfolio and my TXN, JCI, EMR, PBR, ITU, and SPLS in particular have more than made up for the slack in P&G recently.

[hatrack]

147. Ah, yes - "This time it's different" How refreshingly nostalgic!!

:puke:

[54anickel]

139. Oh my! The buck just took another dive straight down

Last trade 87.97 Change -0.64 (-0.72%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.62

Previous Close 88.61 High 87.98

Low 87.96 2006-04-18 18:23:20, 30 min delay

Check out the chart - http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s


Boy, I stepped out to run some errands and missed the party of the year. :party:

[Zynx]

143. The stock market actually likes that a lot.

It makes US assets cheaper for overseas investors and raises US profits by making exports both more valuable to us and cheaper for overseas purchasers, leading to higher volume levels of exports.

[54anickel]

144. Gold and the Global Bombing Index (How utterly sad)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Droke/apr182006.html

With the first three-and-a-half months of 2006 behind us, now would be a good time to look back and reflect on some of the head-spinning events that have already transpired in what is turning out to be a bloody, violent year. But before we get into the financial and economic considerations (including gold), let’s take a look at the socio-political events that have been dominant thus far.

If one had to summarize the two most dominant things of the year-to-date in only one or two words, I’d venture that the following words would best apply: "democracy" and "bombs." The former because of the obvious rush to spread democratic forms of government to developing regions of the globe. The latter because it seems to be an all-too-common accompaniment of the spread of democracy, especially in the early phases of implementation. That is, countries that have been targeted by the world rulers for takeover and democratization are first subject to relentless bombing/warfare campaigns before they can eventually reap the "rewards" of having a democratic form of government.

Put another way, we might say that democracy is brought into a country on the back of bombs. To this end it will come as no surprise that year 2006 has seen more than its fair share of bombings, particularly in the world’s political hot spots. Earlier this year I became so alarmed at the almost daily news headlines announcing bombing activity in a foreign country (usually somewhere in the Middle East) that I was inspired to go back and chronicle just how many bombs have been exploded this year. Using the international version of the BBC News web site as my starting point, I searched back in their archives several months to chronicle the reported bombings in various countries each day, week and month of 2006. I’ve since kept a daily log of these bombing reports and will share them with you in this article. This probably is not the most comprehensive journal of bombings as some smaller-scale bombs undoubtedly are failed to be reported in the BBC news. But since BBC does an overall good job of staying on top of the significant bombings around the world I think the following log is a fairly accurate summation of the bombing trend of the past several months.

By tallying the total number of reported bombings each day beginning in January a linear trend can be easily seen in the cumulative global bombings of 2006. I’ve labeled this cumulative trend the "Global Bombing Index," or GBI for short, and the chart below shows the dramatic rise in the actual bombing trend year-to-date. As of mid-April there have been 129 reported bombings in various countries (mostly in the Middle East region) so far this year according to the BBC. And to think we’re just over one quarter into the year!

more...

[RawMaterials]

148. GOLD $640

:applause: