STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY NOV 17....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday November 17, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 434
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 339 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 30 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 239
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 723
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 14, 2003

Dow... 9,768.68 -69.26 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq... 1,930.26 -37.09 (-1.89%)
S&P 500.... 1,050.35 -8.06 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% -0.04 (-0.89%)
Gold future... 398.00 +3.70 (+0.94%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"Could it be different this time?"

I decided to take one of the e-mails that I received last week and answer it through this week’s commentary. Below is the e-mail as well as my commentary on this topic.

How does Dow Theory factor in the liquidity from 401K payroll deductions? This is almost an involuntary stimulus to the market not seen before. You have never had this much unsophisticated money being supervised by jackals. I can't believe the investment trusts of ‘29 had a DREAM like the present. If the Fed keeps printing money and workers are given only equities as their retirement bet, couldn’t this be a NEW ABERRATION of DOW THEORY?

This is an excellent question that I’m sure many of you have pondered. To me this question goes hand in hand with another question. Could it be different this time? The answer, in my opinion, is both yes and no. Unfortunately, there are no quick answers, so please allow me to elaborate a bit. In order to answer the question, I want to draw from some of my historical market observations. Most of this material I have talked about before so many of you may have seen this. However, this is a good way to apply some of my historical observations to real questions. So let’s walk through it.

<cut>

The Third Great (Greatest) Bull Market 1974 - 2000
Now, let’s take a look at our most recent new paradigm. This time the new paradigm began with our nation’s third and greatest ever Bull market. From a cyclical perspective, the greatest Bull market of all time began with the 1974 4-year cycle low and ran to the 4-year cycle top in January 2000. This "Primary" Bull market comprised a series of seven 4-year cycles and the market advanced a total of 2,061% from the 1974 low of 570 on the DJIA to the January 2000 high of 11,750 on the DJIA. Notice how once again this Bull market doubled the percentage advancement of the preceding Bull market. Also, notice how the duration was stretched by an additional 4-year cycle. Each of these great Bull market periods has been fueled by more money.

My point to all of this is that yes, this time is different in that we have seen more money flow into the market than ever before. This has in turn created the greatest Bull market ever. This time will not be different in that we will see the Bear market correct the preceding Bull market. This process began in 2000 and I can assure you that it is not over.

If you observe the brief history lesson above, you should see that the greater the Bull market, the greater the Bear market that follows. So, I would argue that this time will be different in one respect. That being that this bear market will very likely be the longest and nastiest of our nation's history. We are still only in phase one of this great Bear market.

read more on the nastiness of a "phase two" bull market

[Maeve]

15. Post THAT and still have the nerve to say "Good Morning"???

Sigh. I got out of high school just as the greatest bull market began and now I get to face the prospect of my kids graduating into the greatest bear mauling, er, market....and I can't even go back to bed today! :eyes:

The futures continue to forecast a dismal start to the market. I may have to get ZombyWoof up here to make strong enough virtual coffee for this Monday!

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

16. I think like that too

about the kids' future. I especially get nervous of draft talk(worse for you I imagine) with my son being twelve and things being set up tp get started in '05--brining him to age 16, 2 years closer!! If I can just manage to get them as educated as possible hopefully they'll stand a better chance of avoiding misery and helping others do the same.

We have no choice but overthrow the fascists. ;-)

Julie

[Code_Name_D]

38. Shame on you. That is not good Markatire-thinking. Is it kids.

Child audiance: Nooooooo!

Mr. Bull Market: Vary good kiddyes. Just remember, bad news is good news, and good news is Great news! Remeber that kids, and that will keep that nasty old bare away, for ever.

Child audiance: YAAAAAAAAAAA!

Mr. Bull Market: That's right ittle Marketires, chear on the investors. They need all the chearing they can get. Now, lets all sing a song.

[Maeve]

41. LOL! And then, kiddies, we'll all have some Kool-ade!

[jamesinca]

2. Good morning

I wonder what the world hold for us today? Only 4:00 knows

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning James.

The futures look a bit ugly. It is my impression that when the market tends to look down before the open, it usually follows through. There seems to be some acknowledgement that bad economic news has permeated the ivory tower on Wall Street.

[jamesinca]

9. Tokyo's Nikkei plunges below 10,000

Tokyo's Nikkei plunges below 10,000 By Allen Wan

TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Tokyo's Nikkei Average plunged over 250 points to below 10,000 in early Monday trade on worries that upward pressure on the yen could haunt Japanese exporters going forward after Wall Street ended down Friday. The Nikkei Average tumbled 253 points, or 2.5 percent, to 9,913.68 -- the first time it fell below the key 10,000 mark since Aug. 18. The broader Topix slipped 2.4 percent to 982. Technology exporters were getting hit hard by the appreciating yen, which was trading at 108.26 yen in early Tokyo, compared with 108.35 yen in late Friday trade in New York. <snip>
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Picked this up in another thread this morning. On the up side though, the Green Bay Packers won yesterday and I have full faith that they can change the course of the world.

[ozymandius]

4. Market jitters seen

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The fear of terrorism, never far from Americans' minds the past two years, appeared to be creeping back into U.S. stock trading early Monday after two car bombings n Turkey.

At 5:25 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a broadly lower open for the major indexes, after Tokyo's Nikkei index plummeted 3.7 percent overnight.

The terrorism concern was raised when car bombs exploded Saturday outside two synagogues in Istanbul. Turkish officials said at least 23 people were killed in the attacks. An Arab-language newspaper published in London said al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attacks, and is planning similar attacks in the United States, Japan and other allied nations.

<cut>
Quarterly results from key retailers Lowe's and Toys 'R' Us will greet investors at the start of the trading week Monday.

story

[ozymandius]

5. Economists see solid, if not spectacular, US growth into 2004 (ha ha)

WASHINGTON, (AFP) - The US economy's blistering pace of growth in the third quarter is unlikely to continue, but most analysts see solid if not spectacular growth into 2004.

The sizzling 7.2 percent pace in third-quarter gross domestic product may be a one-time event, economists say, but momentum should carry into the fourth quarter and well into 2004.

David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, said the economy will get another dose of stimulus in early 2004 as more tax cuts kick in, with other factors providing tailwinds.

He noted that tax refunds will provide the equivalent of a wage boost of 2,500 dollars per family.

story

I regard the "averages" as meaning that Dick Cheney will receive a hundred thousands of dollars in a tax cut windfall and I will receive about twenty bucks. Considering that income ranges from my level to the Cheney level, that somehow averages to about $2,500 per family.

[jamesinca]

10. It is an average

They play on the average word a lot in this administration. But they also have a target group of middle class people that make $50-70k per year that get exactly the average. The rest of the average goes to those that make more than that amount. Most Americans don't make 50 - 70 per year if I remember right.

[JNelson6563]

13. haha Averages

I believe it was in Franken's Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them pointed out that on the average, me and Bill Gates are worth several billion each. haha So much for averages.

Julie

[ze_dscherman]

6. Gold edges closer to key $400 mark as dollar continues to sli

See: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=223371

Very bad day for both Nikkei (-3.74 %) and German Dax (at noon -2,43). But Euro crawling closer to all-time-highs.


Have a good morning!

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning ze_dscherman.

With the euro going higher and the European union threatening a trade war (Britain too - over steel), I wonder how this will effect the US economy as the dollar loses buying power and targeted commodities increase in price due to tariffs. Double whammy of biblical porportions?

[ze_dscherman]

11. Rising Euro equally threatens European exports

Good morning Oz

Small to medium companies can't afford to hedge(?) exchange rates. E.g., the company I'm working for heavily relies on U.S. sales and has a U.S. competitor. Since product pricing in the U.S. was/is in $$$, the rising Euro hit us really bad.

These trade wars and irresponsible fiscal policies hurt all sides, and most vulnerable are the "little people" and smaller/weaker companies.

[ozymandius]

7. Iraq Violence Gives Another Reason to Sell Dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A spate of bomb attacks in the Middle East has raised concerns in currency markets about rising geopolitical risk for a U.S. dollar that analysts said was already hurt by worries about the U.S. economic recovery and the widening trade deficit.

Gold and the Swiss franc -- classic safe-haven assets in times of global turmoil -- are clearly tapping more of a bid this week. But the greenback's broad retreat is also benefiting a raft of other currencies.

<cut>
BROAD DOLLAR EXODUS

<cut>
"I think the resurgence.... of geopolitical concerns.... should not be taken lightly, due to the mounting difficulties that the U.S. is facing in Iraq from a military angle and from an administrative angle: the complications dealing with a rebuilding phase," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst with MG Financial in New York.

In part, the dollar's woes are being driven by a lapse in confidence about the pace of the U.S. economic rebound and the so-called "twin deficits," the U.S. budget and current account deficits, each in the order of 5 percent of gross domestic product, which are a heavy underlying drag on the dollar.

story

[ozymandius]

12. You folks have a wonderful day!

I am running late to work - DU is so addictive! Keep your umbrellas handy. I get the feeling that it's going to rain today.

[JNelson6563]

14. Great day to you Ozy!

Thanks for kicking things off today, and every day. My kids have the day off of school so I got to sleep in till about 6:30.

Futures like dark and Gold, well rock on gold! I saw that comin' as many others did. Mutual fund scandals still kickin'. Geo-political stuff is so big and so ugly they can't be ignored by investors anymore and I don't think dropping a few daisy cutters on brown skin folks far away will do it this time--like last week.

Malls here jammed over the weekend. Wal-Mart was packed. I went in there the other day, returned a bunch of returnables (cans) and got my cash at service desk (haha love to squeeze a few bucks out of those bastards and leave). Store looked decimated as did the help. That was Sunday morn. Still wiped out from Saturday.

So anybody else notice crude these days? As I was browsing DU I hear on CNBC that it's down to $32 a barrel! Ouch!

Dollar vs. Euro 1.18+ Let's see what the boy king does about the steel tariffs.

Stake out your positions marketeers, strategy is key.

Julie

[jamesinca]

18. Let's see what the boy king does about the steel tariffs.

Every policy he makes is based on money making for big business. Clear skies initiative is a fine example of what I am taklking about, so is the Healthy forest intiative. Haliburton no bid contracts in Iraq the list goes on and on. His advisors are split on the decision, they don't want him to back down because that would seem weak, they don't want him to go thru with this because that would be irresponsible. When his million dollar "Pioneers" and such complain he will gladly reach out and work with the Europeans if they are willing to at least meet his overly generous offers half way. Until such complaining goes on, he will stay the course, he will show his resolve to those that hate us for our freedoms. I wish he would put his resolve back in his pants and be a leader for once. I don't really care to see his resolve. Because he gets his resolve out for big money that makes him a very expensive whore.

[UpInArms]

17. daily dollar watch

and if I were to make a prediction, I would say that the BoJ would be intervening later today - they have to continue to prop the dollar for fear that their markets will follow ours and their economy will become even worse (although it is throwing good money after bad imho)

the dollar is off its earlier lows, but we'll see where today goes

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.33 Change -0.11 (-0.12%)

[Maeve]

19. Starting OFF at 9:42

Dow 9,716.98 -51.70 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 1,914.85 -15.41 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,043.97 -6.38 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% -0.041

[wetbandit2003]

20. man...

There is a lot of negative views on the markets......

[Maeve]

22. 10:00 and desperately seeking bounce

Dow 9,706.16 -62.52 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,910.99 -19.27 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,043.02 -7.33 (-0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% -0.041

[Maeve]

21. Toys R Us reports wider loss, some stores will close

Toys 'R' Us posts wider 3Q loss
No. 2 toy retailer's stock falls on weak U.S. sales and soft demand, cuts 2003 earnings forecast.
November 17, 2003: 9:41 AM EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toys "R" Us Inc., the No. 2 toy retailer behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc., posted a wider third-quarter loss Monday, missing Wall Street estimates because of weak sales at U.S. toy stores and its Kids "R" Us clothing stores.
The company also said it plans to close its 146 Kids "R" Us stores and the 36 free-standing Imaginarium stores, as well as three distribution centers that support those stores.
The closures will boost operating earnings, the company said. Most of the facilities are expected to close on or before Jan. 31, it added

[radwriter0555]

37. You know it's BAD when TOYS R US is taking a header... I mean it's XMAS

fercryinoutloud.

Serious, serious stuff here. Hang on to your hats, and go nanotech.

[JNelson6563]

23. Snow-job spoke but did no good

What a surpise, a member of Team Bush jsut couldn't give convincing assurace it's all good.

10:14 and here's where it is:


Dow 9,688.53 -80.15 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,902.44 -27.82 (-1.44%)
S&P 500 1,040.25 -10.10 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% -0.041

Bloody Monday or will someone pull a rabbit out of the hat?

Julie

[wetbandit2003]

25. All this BLah....on Terrorism in the markets......

instead of me talking about a terrorist threat about 15,000 miles across the globe in the land of chow-mein and Karate-Do and its adverse effects on the DOW I will say some good news like the Empire State Index jumping up this month..... I guess the wall streeters will be kicking themselves in the Arse when the thrifties buy their sold shares and make a killing off them when the prices go back up.....In my opinion, the greedy suits are just looking for a lame excuse to sell shares and not look like money hungry gluts.

[Maeve]

24. 11:15 and not getting better

Dow 9,666.98 -101.70 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,900.44 -29.82 (-1.54%)
S&P 500 1,038.57 -11.78 (-1.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.174% -0.059

[Sagan]

26. 11:26am EST

Dow 9,659.50 -109.18 (-1.12%)
Nasdaq 1,897.36 -32.90 (-1.70%)
S&P 500 1,037.60 -12.75 (-1.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% -0.060
NYSE Volume 472,197,000
Nasdaq Volume 743,522,000

[jamesinca]

27. This and the toys-r-us news are wreaking havoc

Will taking credit for the economy be bad for Bush? Is this a bad omen for the upcoming quarterly reports? Will the tariffs and this news along with that of toys-r-us kill the recovery that some are expecting for the spring? Just how large will the average have to be on the tax refunds actually be to get the economy going? So many questions and only time will tell.

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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20031117/bs_nm/economy_inventories_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent in September as unsold stocks of autos accumulated at the fastest clip since February, a government report showed on Monday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had been expecting inventories to remain unchanged.

Motor vehicle and parts inventories rose 1.5 percent, the sharpest increase since a 2.1 percent rise in February, the Commerce Department said. Retail inventories excluding cars rose 0.8 percent, the steepest climb since May 2000.

It was the biggest rise in overall inventories since a matching 0.3 percent gain in March.

[Maeve]

28. At the risk of repeating myself too often...

Dubya tends to do his victory dance WAY too early...like on the 30 yard-line when he should wait for the end-zone.

But what you'll hear down the road is "We told you it was improving, but there's still a long, hard slog ahead!"

[gratuitous]

29. Why isn't the market soaring today?

Musclehead taking over in Sacramento, Stupidhead marching triumphantly through the alleys and back roads of London, I mean, what more could investors want than to see these two statesmen ascendant?

[Maeve]

30. 12:42--lost at lunch

Dow 9,667.27 -101.41 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,901.28 -28.98 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,039.30 -11.05 (-1.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.202% -0.031

[mrsteve]

31. Hello everyone - looks like an interesting morning

...in that old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" kinda way.

Heard the pundits on the radio on the drive in already spinning today - "oh, it's terror worries" or "oh, it's worries about possible interest rate hikes".

Geez. I wish they would just admit that Republican administrations are bad for the economy and have done with it. That would be the only sane interpretation of the last 23 years of economic cycles - up, then down with Reagan, down with Bush I, way up with Clinton, way down with Bush II.

Now how hard is that to figure out?

[Maeve]

32. 1:27 and fading

Maybe it's not just the insiders anymore...

Dow 9,637.79 -130.89 (-1.34%)
Nasdaq 1,891.77 -38.49 (-1.99%)
S&P 500 1,035.93 -14.41 (-1.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% -0.040

[Maeve]

33. 2:31 and off the day's lows

Which isn't saying much...

Dow 9,660.46 -108.22 (-1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,896.91 -33.35 (-1.73%)
S&P 500 1,038.65 -11.69 (-1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% -0.042

[ozymandius]

34. Hi folks. Checking in and it looks like low wasn't low enough.

Dow 9,646.53 -122.15 (-1.25%)
Nasdaq 1,894.85 -35.41 (-1.83%)
S&P 500 1,037.26 -13.08 (-1.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% -0.058

[jenk]

35. has the lates bubble burst?

just curious, I'm no economist but are we heading for another downturn? The stock market is supposed to predict these things right?

[JNelson6563]

36. it may be a bursting we see

2:51 and it looks like this:

Dow 9,649.20 -119.48 (-1.22%)
Nasdaq 1,895.69 -34.57 (-1.79%)
S&P 500 1,037.45 -12.90 (-1.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.179% -0.054


Julie

[ozymandius]

39. vultures come to eat - 3:26

Dow 9,682.46 -86.22 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,902.16 -28.10 (-1.46%)
S&P 500 1,040.66 -9.69 (-0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.045

[Maeve]

40. Say rather..."buying opportunity"

:eyes:

Dow 9,709.35 -59.33 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,906.14 -24.12 (-1.25%)
S&P 500 1,042.91 -7.44 (-0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.045

[ozymandius]

42. at 3:53 - losses look mild

Dow 9,703.57 -65.11 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,906.78 -23.48 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,042.60 -7.75 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.045

[ozymandius]

43. finals

Dow 9,710.83 -57.85 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,909.61 -20.65 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,043.63 -6.72 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.045


Looks like a whole lot of dealing was going on. See you folks tomorrow.

Ozymandius