STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY NOV 18...(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 18, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 433
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 340 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 31 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 240
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 724
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 17, 2003

Dow... 9,710.83 -57.85 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq... 1,909.61 -20.65 (-1.07%)
S&P 500.... 1,043.63 -6.72 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% -0.05 (-1.06%)
Gold future... 391.50 -6.50 (-1.63%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Good and Bad Inflation

Inflation has and will always be a monetary phenomenon. This is to say that inflation is the direct consequence of government policies. Spending more than it takes in, governments often resort to policies of inflating the currency. What a government can’t politically extract in the form of taxes it extracts through inflating the money supply. This, in effect, is another form of taxation. The government is taking what is not lawfully its own by expanding the supply of dollars in the economy. Unlike citizens who have to work for wages or investors who earn returns from their investments, the government contributes nothing for the dollars it creates. It is simply adding dollars to its account through fiat means, which depreciates the value of the national currency.

The consequences of these actions are that the value of the currency declines and in this case, the value of the U.S. dollar. When a government or central bank creates additional money through fiat means, it creates inflation. The real definition of inflation is an increase in the supply of money beyond any increase in specie. 1 By its very definition, it attributes the real cause of inflation to its root source which is expansion of the supply of money and credit through artificial means. Its real cause is an act of fraudulent intervention into the financial and economic system distorting values, investments, and in the process, the distribution pattern of wealth and income within the economy.

<cut>

Prices are rising, but why?

By focusing more on the symptoms of inflation (rising prices) rather than its root cause (expanding money supply and credit) shifts attention away from government. Government decisions or central bank decisions to expand the supply of money and credit is what causes inflation in the first place. The fact that prices are rising is simply the way that expanding money and credit surfaces in the economy. By creating more money and credit than can be produced or gained from productive resources or through savings, the government has interjected an artificial source of demand in the economy. There is now more money and credit floating around the economic system than there is the capacity to produce goods or services. Since the additional money did not result from producing additional goods or increased savings, its source is artificial. The additional dollars created through fiat means creates additional demand in the economy beyond its ability to produce, so the prices of goods or services rise as a result.

And Bubbles Everywhere

As repeatedly annunciated through press releases following FOMC meetings and Fed research papers, the Fed was concerned over the possibility of asset deflation or the bursting of bubbles it had artificially created through its own polices. Money supply growth expanded at double-digit rates as the Fed expanded liquidity in the financial system in an effort to keep asset prices from deflating. We now had multiple bubbles taking place in not only bonds, mortgages, and real estate, but another mini-bubble was developing again in the stock market as the price of profitable and unprofitable companies rose sharply. In the most recent rally it was the shares of unprofitable companies with balance sheet problems that rose the sharpest. Rather than looking at the various asset bubbles and their cause, attention was directed at the rise in asset prices. The inflation that was occurring in real estate was viewed more in terms of a bull market than its inflationary cause. This once again stems from the distorted definition of inflation as rising prices without examining its cause. This definition doesn’t apply to assets. Rising asset prices are always viewed as favorable regardless of their cause. In this case rising real estate prices, rising debt levels as a result of refinancing, and above-normal consumption financed through debt was viewed favorably as a sign of economic recovery rather than the distortion created through excess money and credit.

When John Q Wakes Up

[ozymandius]

2. Blair urges US to respond to WTO ruling on tariffs

BIRMINGHAM (AFP) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair (news - web sites) called on the United States to respond to a World Trade Organisation ruling that US steel tariffs are illegal.

Blair told an audience of business leaders in the city of Birmingham, central England, that he would be arguing Britain's case on trade with US President George W. Bush (news - web sites) on his state visit to the country this week.

"Obviously in relation to the United States and the issues to do with steel tariffs we will make the points as we have very forcefully to them," Blair told the annual conference of the Confederation of British Industry.

"What is important to us is to hold very firm with the rest of Europe, actually, in this case.

story

There Bush goes again - uniting people.

[ozymandius]

3. Toys "R" Us Reports Wider Quarterly Loss (updated after the close)

TRENTON, N.J. - Toy and children's retailer Toys "R" Us Inc. said its third-quarter loss widened due to higher overhead and stagnant sales, and announced plans to close 182 Kids "R" Us and Imaginarium stores, cutting up to 3,800 U.S. jobs.

The loss reported Monday by the nation's No. 2 toy retailer behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was larger than expected, and Toys "R" Us lowered its earnings forecast. Shares fell $1.56, or 12 percent, to close at $11.18 on the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites).

<cut>

Standard & Poor's changed the company's credit rating to a negative outlook. With its long-term rating currently at the lowest investment grade level, BBB-, any move down would shift Toys "R" Us' credit rating to speculative grade.

"The outlook change is really due to the deterioration of the U.S. toy business and growing concern that the holiday business in 2003 will not meet Standard & Poor's expectations," said its retail credit analyst, Diane Shand.

story

[ozymandius]

4. Have a great day at the casino Marketeers!

I must away to work. But first...

Something really disturbing that comes to mind is the idea that fear of terrorism is driving down prices of stocks. I know that this is part of the psychological element of the stock markets' performance. This issue is often the most important driving principle. (Why else would we have the hyper-inflated stock valuations that bear no relationship with company earnings and long-term strategies?) So this makes me think that if either my broker, trader, financial advisor or institution is somehow swayed by "fears" then I want no business with them.

</editorial>

[SahaleArm]

5. Home Depot (HD) reports record earnings, raises guidance

The Home Depot cited its best three-month advance in same store sales in four years as it reported a 22 percent jump in third-quarter earnings, handily beating Wall Street expectations.

The nation's largest home improvement store chain said Tuesday it earned $1.15 billion, or 50 cents a share, for the three months ended Nov. 2, compared to a profit of $940 million, or 40 cents a share, for the same period a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 46 cents a share.

Revenue in the quarter was $16.6 billion, a 14.7 percent jump from the $14.48 billion the Atlanta-based company brought in during the same period a year ago. Same-store sales increased 7.8 percent, Home Depot's best quarterly comparable sales performance since the fourth quarter of 1999.

...

Home Depot reiterated its annual sales growth guidance of 9 percent to 12 percent and raised its full year earnings per share growth guidance to 15 percent to 17 percent.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/7290455.htm

[JNelson6563]

6. Good morning Marketeers!!

CPI #s out 8:30, should be fun!

Futures looking sunny for the moment.

Great wrap-up this morning BTW. Much political doings in my neck of the woods today. Security issues. Seems supporters of a certain campaign are taking member info and misusing it for their campaign. Not cool.

Implementing info lock-down. A cryin' shame when the enemy is within.

Julie

[SahaleArm]

7. Energy Bill Deal With Tax Breaks OK'd

After months of sometimes bitter wrangling, Congress is on the verge of approving a far-reaching energy bill that would provide billions of dollars in tax breaks for oil, gas and coal industries and bring an economic boon to farmers who grow corn for ethanol.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=512&ncid=703&e=3&u=/ap/20031118/ap_on_go_co/energy_bill

Let's see how this plays in early trading of energy stocks; already built-in? GW on his corporate welfare mission.

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

and it looks like the pound is supporting the dollar (along with the yen)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.69 Change +0.16 (+0.17%)

Good morning Marketeer!

Great "Wrap-up" Ozy! - the printing presses are on overdrive -

[Maeve]

9. Morning, all

Looks like there might be a bit of bargain-hunting today after the past couple of sessions' losses.

Also, in light of the Wrapup discussion of what "inflation" is, I found this in a report on the Consumer Price Index (flat for October as oppposed to the slight gain that was expected)

"The report seemed unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's view that inflation is a distant threat to the economy, and it could support fears of a continued slowdown in consumer inflation, which could hurt corporate profits, given the recent rise in the price of commodities."
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/18/news/economy/cpi/index.htm

[Maeve]

10. And we're off! 9:33

Dow 9,718.09 +7.26 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,922.77 +13.16 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,046.78 +3.14 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.225% +0.037

[Maeve]

11. 9:51 and cheerful

Not out-right giddy, but cheerful enough...

Dow 9,731.35 +20.52 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,921.70 +12.09 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,046.87 +3.24 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% +0.045

[Maeve]

12. 10:10 and some slippage may occur

evidence that Wall street is all wet :shrug:

Dow 9,726.46 +15.63 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,918.27 +8.66 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,046.08 +2.45 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% +0.035

[Maeve]

13. 10:41--didn't think I'd need the red ink today

I was wrong!

Dow 9,699.20 -11.63 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,911.61 +2.00 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,043.28 -0.35 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.194% +0.006

[UpInArms]

14. something's up (and it's not the markets)

the dollar is in a fall this a.m. -

Last trade 90.92 Change -0.61 (-0.67%)

and the market is slip sliding away, too

Dow 9,701.13 -9.70 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,911.63 +2.02 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,043.46 -0.18 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% +0.004

[ze_dscherman]

15. Euro just broke all-time high

Euro just shot up to 1EUR=1,1912$, breaking the all-time high of 1,1902.

Someone trying to approach the 1EUR/1,20$ barrier?

[ze_dscherman]

17. FOREX-Dollar slumps broadly on China quota news

Sorry, my reference course was 1,1902, so the Euro did not break it's high (yet)

FOREX-Dollar slumps broadly on China quota news

A sleepy currency trading session awoke with a start on Tuesday after the U.S. Commerce Department said it would set new quotas on imports of clothing from China, sparking a sell-off in the dollar on protectionism fears.

The dollar quickly lost more than 1 percent in value against the euro and Swiss franc and extended its decline against the Australian dollar.

A surge up for the euro brought it within a whisker of its record high $1.1932, reached in May.

SNIP

Currency traders took note in early New York dealings of a report from the U.S. Treasury showing foreigners' net purchases of bonds and notes fell steeply to $5.6 billion in September, down from $25.2 billion of net purchases in August. The dollar reacts to shifts in this report because of the U.S. need to finance its wide current account deficit.



http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3845156&newsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies

[UpInArms]

18. that current account deficit

is a real and growing problem - the US needs $1.6 Billion daily in inflows just to cover it debts -

$25.2 in August wasn't enough - and September's $5.6 is just a downright bad joke -

hating to be a pessimist (because it's just not my nature), I am going to speculate that the dollar will be making some precipitous falls in the near future.

[aneerkoinos]

20. now...

1.1930

Will it make it today...?

[aneerkoinos]

23. 1.942!

n/t

[ze_dscherman]

28. 1.1960 - All Time High

nT

[Beetwasher]

21. Foreign Investment Has Been in a Dangerously Steep Decline

They have NO confidence in the US financial system anymore. This is a story that is largely ignored in the press and yet it's incredibly relevant because w/out foreign investment the US economy is fucked.

[JNelson6563]

16. Pardon my absence Marketeers

Had a bit of an upset around here lately. Sometimes, in politics, the enemy is within. Even in our Utopian little burg.

Not to worry, it's all under control though northern Michigan Dems can once again sleep knowing the most precious info is safe. Just a few more steps (as in blcoking some access etc) and it's all good.

Crazy ass day in the world of economics. Euro kicking green-back booty. I wonder, if one day long ago someone would have said the US dollar may not always be the most valuable currency, if they'd have been laughed off the stage. This is what happens when the small join together to fight the big. After money come military. We need to make diplomacy a less foreign concept in Washington real quick.

I may not be back in today, after I wrap up safe-guarding Party assets kids should be getting home. Will check markets whenever I pass TV and speculate how my fellow marketeers will be reacting. :-)

Dems in 04! Keep the faith!

Julie

[ozymandius]

30. You and I have missed the frenzy.

Hair and eyeballs on the floor.

From the figures noted above: in order to support our public debt, we are woefully underfinanced by the generosity and faith of foreign investors. What does this mean? Does this mean that we will look to Argentina for economic guidance?

[JNelson6563]

36. or IMF!

I'd flee if it came to that.

Geez, what a day I missed! I really had to though. I see even Beetwasher stopped in among a few others!

Isn't what is happening underneath it all scary? It's like there really is a boogey-man under the bed.

I'll be back tomorrow and expect a normal (??) day.

G'nite marketeers! :toast:

Julie

[Maeve]

19. 12:43 and no buying interest

Don't even feel like putting it in bold type, since there is nothing bold about this market day

Dow 9,698.38 -12.45 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,908.36 -1.25 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,042.41 -1.22 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% +0.004

[mrsteve]

22. 1:40 - glub, glub, glub (slipping below the water)

Hello marketeers! Looks like no rally for yesterday yet, as the indicators drop below the open.

But look at Gold go!

Dow 9,697.20 -13.63 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,907.06 -2.55 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,041.79 -1.84 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.194% +0.006

[Maeve]

24. 2 pm and sucking water

Back to bold

Dow 9,665.87 -44.96 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,899.67 -9.94 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,038.80 -4.83 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% +0.004

[Maeve]

25. 2:24 glub

Dow 9,661.20 -49.63 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,895.30 -14.31 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,037.61 -6.02 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.179% -0.009

[Maeve]

26. 2:54...is there a bottom?

Dow 9,635.57 -75.26 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 1,890.58 -19.03 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,035.37 -8.26 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 4.171% -0.017

[jamesinca]

27. I have decided there is a bottom

I have also decided that Bush can not wrap his mind around a number 9875.63 for the Dow. I am coming to the belief that he likes nice round numbers like 9500 or 9600 or 9000 etc... but nothing with a decimal point. Long division is not his best subject and anything more than 2 digits is just plain scary to him. We will not go below 10 and if Bush has his way we will not get above 99. Unka Dick and Laura need to tell him to imagine all those nasty zeros are gone and you can treat 10,000 like 10 or 11,000 like 11. Please somebody step in and help this idiot do the math that he does not seem capable of.

[ozymandius]

29. Hi Marketeers! What's all this blood doing on the floor?

My boy is taking a nap. It gives me a chance to check as the markets are about to close. Looks like I missed the beginning of the dispensation of the myth that Republican leadership is synonymous with economic prosperity.


Dow 9,651.42 -59.41 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,891.16 -18.45 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1,037.43 -6.20 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.167% -0.021

[Maeve]

31. Final figures--bring a mop

Little peroxide will help with the stains....

Dow 9,623.94 -86.89 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,881.75 -27.86 (-1.46%)
S&P 500 1,034.16 -9.47 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.167% -0.021

[ozymandius]

32. Where is the floor?

Losses just keep coming. How mnay days in a row have we seen losses across the board?

[54anickel]

33. How low do you think it can go? Is this Phase 2 of the Bear?

[Dogmudgeon]

34. I'm ... Dreaming ...

... of a RED Christmas ...

... not like the GREEN ones Clinton had ...

--bkl

[ozymandius]

35. It surely feels like it.

The proof is the direction in which money has been flowing. Quoting Tim Wood: Phase Two Bear Market ?
Phase two is the longest and the ugliest of all. This bear market rally is dying a slow death. There is no doubt about that. However, it will wear itself out and when it does, I believe that we will most likely then move into phase two. Once phase two gets in gear, there will be little doubt that the Bear is alive and well.

and a little more from his column...

Robert Rhea described the three phases of the bear market, which I have also talked about in the past. More importantly, Rhea went on to state: "Each of theses phases seems to be divided by a secondary reaction which is often erroneously assumed to be the beginning of a bull market.” Does this sound familiar or what? Rhea also states: “Such secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory.”

So based on these observation, I say it is starting to smell like phase two.

[54anickel]

38. Thanks Oz, that's what I was afraid of. Oh well, the sooner we get

this started with the better. No sense putting off the inevitable.

on edit:
Oh yes, and thanks to you and all in the Market Watch Thread. I follow you folks everyday and I am learning so much.
Thanks to you all again! :hi:

[mrsteve]

37. As of today - we are almost giving back all of November's gains

On the all three indexes, we have either completely given up all of November's gains, and on the Nasdaq even more besides.

So much for the recovery. :shrug: