STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY NOV 19....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 19, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 432
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 341 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 32 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 241
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 725
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2003

Dow... 9,624.16 -86.67 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq... 1,881.75 -27.86 (-1.46%)
S&P 500.... 1,034.15 -9.48 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% -0.02 (-0.50%)
Gold future... 397.60 +6.10 (+1.56%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

The Confidence Game

The dollar is plunging, stock indexes are falling, and interest rates look like they are ready to rise. As the value of paper declines, the value of gold and silver is soaring. Commodity prices from copper to cattle are climbing as the CRB breaks out into record territory. On the economic front the economy is improving, but most of the benefit is going to foreign producers with the U.S. trade deficit at record levels. In addition to record trade deficits, the government is running record budget deficits. On Monday the government reported that the federal budget deficit widened to $69.5 billion in October, an annualized rate of over $800 billion. It is only the first month of the 2004 fiscal year. The deficit was much larger than anticipated. Fiscal 2004 now looks like it will become another year of record budget deficits.

Trade and budget deficits in the U.S. are now at levels that would normally trigger a currency crisis in any other country. The dollar is falling, but its fall isn’t critical at this point. The record trade and budget deficits are producing a surfeit of dollars around the globe. With supply greater than demand for dollars, the price of the dollar is sinking. For the first time in decades, the Fed faces a credibility crisis: how to finance America’s growing twin deficits and maintain the value of the dollar. It has become a game of confidence with the financial markets. How do you continue to run gargantuan deficits and convince foreigners to continuously lend you money? No one wants to own a currency that is headed for a fall. With nothing backing it, owning the dollar has become a confidence game.

The only thing that holds the dollar up is the strength of the U.S. military and faith in the U.S. economy. Currently there is a lot banking on the U.S. economic recovery. It is faith in that recovery that is keeping the dollar from collapsing. Everything rests on the strength of the U.S. economy and its financial markets. If problems surface in either area, the confidence game is over and the dollar is toast. The Fed now has its hands full with holes in the dike everywhere it looks.

<cut>

End Game Approaching

The Fed’s job is to keep investors in paper, in particular the dollar. It must keep investors corralled so that only paper options are considered. What the Fed does not want to see happen is the price of gold and silver soar. When precious metals start flying, as they are doing now, it is telegraphing in advance that the confidence game is coming down to its end game. Greenspan must continue at all costs keeping investors corralled and preventing them from escaping and getting out of paper. Greenspan knows better than anyone else of the danger of a collapse of confidence in paper.

Once confidence is lost, it is gone and not easily regained.

[ozymandius]

2. With this, I must leave you Marketeers.

Have a wonderful day despite all else making the world a harsher place.

all things good,

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

3. Good Morning Marketeers!

I read this wrap-up, which I agree completely with and I can only scratch my head in wonder at the cheer-leaders who continue to try to convince us it's all good and all we need to do is go shopping.

I think an underlying component of this lack of confidence is the record levels of consumer debt. In fact, I think there are many who barely keep panic at bay. With foreclosures on the rise it won't be long before that bubble pops in a messy way.

Housing starts out this morn at 8:30. As far as the Greenman is concerned, I believe he has little left in his bag of tricks. He's carried the simian through with record low rates for soem time now. He can't very well give $$ away and all who I hear believe a rise in rates would actually be a good thing.

No telling what's next.

Julie

[Kellanved]

4. Euro hits Record High against Dollar

Trade disputes pushed the euro to a record high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. Some fear the euro's strength could begin to hurt Germany's stock market and its nascent economic recovery.

American trade disputes over bras with China and steel with Europe sapped the value of the dollar Tuesday, pushing the euro to new heights against the U.S. currency.

The currency, used by 12 European countries, rose two cents to $1.1977 against the dollar, breaking the previous record of $1.1933. The ghost of a possible trade war with the European Union over tariffs on steel imports and a brewing disagreement with China on bras and other garments fueled speculation that Washington was becoming more protectionist.

"This raises overseas concerns over just how far the U.S. will go in appeasing various domestic lobby groups," the head of currency strategy at ABN Amro told the Financial Times.
...

http://www.dw-world.de/english/0,3367,1431_A_1037007_1_A,00.html


:-(

[Romberry]

5. It may not happen in time for 2004 but...

...we are headed for the perfect storm. The falling dollar means negative returns for foreign investors who we must have in order to finance the rather enormous current account deficit. The problems with the federal budget are structural, not short term, which just means that things will continue to deteriorate so long as the current one party government keeps living in denial. And stocks? Stocks are well into bubble territory (never really deflated) with the &P trading at roughly 30 times earnings.

When this all comes crashing down, and eventually it will, the United States is going to go from the world's economic engine to the world's economic weight dragging everyone below the waves.

Hold on. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[JNelson6563]

12. I wonder about time frame a lot on this

I too believe the perfect storm has long been approaching and, I also think, intentionally kept at bay. I get the impression that those doing the keeping at bay somehow think if they fend it off long enough some miracle or two will occur and they will have averted disaster (magical thinking-as it were). I see it the other way. I think they longer they present an artificially bright picture the worse the storm. We could be hitting the end of it if they'd let it hit full force as it developed. I believe all that has been accomplished is a worsening of what will happen.

Julie

[Code_Name_D]

18. The election itself may be the trigger for the meltdown.

It seems as if forien investers are true die hards when it comes to betting on the US economey. This dispite Bush's war campain, and the echos of Hittler that follow in his wake.

But with the election a year away, perhaps they are wondering if a Democrat will take his place, and start turning things around. If Bush should win, or steal the election, an additionl 4 more years of "weak dollar" policy may prove to be the iorn beem to brake the camels's back.

[WillyT]

6. World Markets Not Lookin Good:

Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Some pretty hefty losses overnight, no?

:shrug:

[jamesinca]

7. Good morning all

Maeve I know you are out there somewhere, top 'o the morning to you. I read the wrap up, it will be interesting to see where it all goes over the next year. Interest rates, the dollar and the price of gold watch them, they will be what is telling.

[Maeve]

8. And just in time for the holidays...

This little tidbit from Julie's favorite company...

Wal-Mart kicks off toy price war
Report: No. 1 retailer slashes tags on popular and hard-to-find items; Toys "R" Us admits surprise.
November 19, 2003: 6:41 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is cutting prices on a number of hot toys earlier this holiday season than such sales are normally seen, according to a published report.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a survey conducted by Banc of America Securities found that Wal-Mart's prices of 15 popular toys were 12 percent less than those of Toys "R" Us, the largest stand-alone toy retailer, and 8 percent less than prices at discount retailer Target, the nation's No. 2 general retailer after Wal-Mart.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BTW, I objected to the Wrapup that referred to Wal-Mart shoppers as "lower middle class". The next day I saw an article that said 82% of household in America shopped at least once at the behemoth last year. (Don't shoot, I'm only the messenger!)

Going into a relentlessly busy weekend, here...not even going to have time to watch any of The Game (one of two I watch per year!)

[JNelson6563]

13. Yes, toy-wars all over CNBC

I swear they must all own Wal-Mart stock, what shameless cheer-leaders. Literally saying today that Wal-Mart is good for the economy and fretting how developments with China trade relations may hurt their beloved behemouth. I never cease to marvel at the blatant media bias.

I for one will be sure not to buy anything from Wal-Mart. Supporting our thriving down-town is quite popular around here and we even have lots of smaller, local businesses in our malls/shopping centers.

With the way things are I don't predict an exceptionally bright Christmas shopping season. Frankly I don't think there's enough credit left for many to make it possible.

We can take small comfort in the fact Wal-Mart investors aren't crazy about the cut-to-the-bone price wars as their stock was down some 50-something cents last I saw.

Looking forward to seeing today's 8:30 #s as well as the subsequent reactions.

Julie

[DUreader]

21. 82% of Americans may well be 'lower middle class' now

getting closer anyway

[Zynx]

9. The news that is most troubling to me is the decline in the dollar.

It has crashed against every major currency out there from the Euro to the Brazilian real and this is likely to scare off more foreign investment as we saw in September and continue a downward cycle. These stupid trade moves that Bush has made are even more dangerous.

[Code_Name_D]

20. Beware the lie!

The dollar has been sliding for some time now, and the forces that are pushing it down are sestemic. But Bush's trade moves have little to do with it. That is part of the "happy talk" lie they like to spew.

The point with the trade talk lie is it lets them say "we will do better tomarow" and to try and give the excuse a "short shelf life." But it woun't work for ever. I wonder what the excuse will be for today?

[jamesinca]

10. Cost cuts at Ross pay off in earnings

More jobless recovery in CA

Jenny Strasburg, Chronicle Staff Writer Wednesday, November 19, 2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Ross Stores Inc.'s third-quarter per-share earnings gained 14 percent on improved sales and store openings, the company said Tuesday.

The 573-store seller of discounted name-brand clothing and accessories is based in Newark but plans to move its headquarters and 500 home-office employees to Pleasanton in July.

The retailer also will close its Newark distribution center next month, eliminating 800 East Bay jobs in a move announced in 2002 to consolidate its West Coast distribution operations in Southern California.

About 200 Newark distribution employees accepted transfers to Ross' new, 1.3-million-square-foot facility in Perris (Riverside County), about 70 miles southeast of Los Angeles, Ross spokeswoman Katie Loughnot said.

Of the remaining almost 600 Northern California distribution jobs, about 80 employees left the company in October, and 500 will work through December before their jobs end and severance packages kick in, she said.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/11/19/BUGP6353DD1.DTL

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

and I have no predictions for the day - could go either way very easily

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.64 Change +0.31 (+0.34%)

and a bit of news

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/19/markets/dollar.reut/

Tuesday's news of the import restrictions was compounded by data showing net foreign purchases of both U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds fell in September. This stoked concerns the U.S. may not be attracting enough foreign capital to fund its current account gap.

"The mix of portfolio flow data from the U.S. along with the announcement of trade quotas on China have brought the funding issue back into the fore," said Derek Halpenny, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"The Japanese authorities seem to have shifted tactics from covertly supporting to actual intervention to try to drive dollar/yen higher. It seems a logical conclusion to make that the Japanese have been given the wink from Washington to be more aggressive to bring some order back into the market."

Traders said it appeared that Japanese authorities sold yen for dollars in two quick rounds of intervention after the dollar broke below key support at ¥107.86.

http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1278732003

New York’s foreign exchange market, whose trading worldwide amounts to more than a trillion dollars a day, remains largely unregulated in comparison with equities and other securities.

Good Morning Marketeers!

Isn't it wonderful that we can watch the re-runs of the Jacko child molestation accusations and not think about the state of our country??

And don't you just love all the tight shots of the *es visit to London (kind of like the pulling down of the SH statue) so that you don't see the background? I hate people telling me what to focus on :mad:

Oh well, if only our fellow citizens were not so easily led :sigh:

[Maeve]

30. Anyone following the currency trading arrests story?

Feds charge 47 in currency trading sweep
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Federal prosecutors are set to charge dozens of currency traders Wednesday with bilking retail investors out of millions of dollars in the latest scandal to rock the financial sector.
A sweep dubbed "Operation Wooden Nickel" by the Federal Bureau of Investigation netted 47 arrests late Tuesday in a crackdown on foreign-exchange-trading scams.
A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney's Office in New York declined to comment, but a formal announcement has been scheduled for 11 a.m. Eastern with James Comey, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, as well as officials from the FBI.
The arrests of many of the suspects were made after an 18-month undercover investigation, principally involving a variety of alleged criminal conduct in the foreign-exchange markets, Comey said in a brief statement.

[Maeve]

14. Hot, hot housing market

Housing starts explode
Red-hot market gets even hotter in October, again defying Wall Street expectations.
November 19, 2003: 8:34 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - New home construction in the United States accelerated to the fastest pace since 1986 in October, the government said Wednesday, defying Wall Street forecasts for a decline.

The Commerce Department said the pace of housing starts rose 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.96 million units, after rising a revised 4.0 percent to 1.91 million units in September. Economists, on average, expected housing starts to fall to a 1.85 million-unit pace, according to Briefing.com.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Caveat--boom precedes bust, and the fall of the new mortgage rate should not be forgotten

[UpInArms]

15. does anyone else remember the

bust of the 80s?

all those empty half-built subdivisions and apartment complexes and shopping strips?

so when they say "not since 1986", it doesn't bring back a "boom", it brings back a "bust"

[Maeve]

16. Honeychild, I lost my first home in that bust!

My retirement fund went into that house, but we couldn't sell it and had to mail the keys to the mortgage company...screwed our credit up good for a decade.

Now y'all know why I'm so pessimistic.

[UpInArms]

17. I knew that we had

economic connections - lost my home in that bust also - broke my heart and my finances

[jamesinca]

19. Chip maker to build factory (overseas)

Frankfurt, Germany- U.S. computer chip maker AMD will build a second factory in the eastern German city of Dresden, a local lawmaker said on Tuesday. AMD, based in Sunnyvale, will invest about $2.8 billion to go ahead with the second plant, said Ronald Weckesser, a deputy in the parliament of Saxony, where Dresden is located.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is on the front of the Fresno Bee business section today, don't have a link

[Maeve]

22. Here we go! 9:38

Up at the start...but I'm forecasting red ink before the day is too old (hope I'm wrong, but...getting bad vibes today)

Dow 9,629.13 +4.97 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,888.80 +7.05 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,035.74 +1.59 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% -0.017

[Robbien]

23. It is starting to crumble

After the market closed yesterday, Dow Jones reported Citibank is bailing out of the US Dollar. This is scary stuff. Per Yahoo:

NEW YORK -- Citibank one of the largest traders in global foreign exchange markets and biggest dollar bulls, closed all its existing long dollar positions Tuesday.

The move, on the day the dollar plunged to record lows against the euro, is significant in that the dollar's slide has forced one of the most aggressive dollar bulls in the market to temper its optimism toward the currency.

In a research note, Citibank currency analysts cite three specific reasons: the U.S. decision Tuesday to impose temporary quotas on certain textile imports from China, the dollar's failure to respond to positive U.S. economic data and the breakdown of key technical levels such as dollar index support at 90.56.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031118/1639001518_1.html

[Spazito]

24. Holy Crap!

*

[Beetwasher]

25. Damn!

Now that's some serious bad news...

[Code_Name_D]

26. The light of the end of the tunnel, just blasted its whissle. N/T

The "Beware of side-walk divers" sign has been put out. Becarfule when walking under large buildings.

[Maeve]

27. 10:17 and getting cheerful on Wall Street

Altho the Nas took a sudden dip and bounce at 10 :shrug:

Dow 9,659.79 +35.63 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,888.22 +6.47 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,038.03 +3.88 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.131% -0.036

[JNelson6563]

28. Putting a brave face on it all.

It's undeniable that Treasuries have seen happy days of late and the gold crowd has much to smile about too.

Other than that I see plastic in a china shop. About as impressive as Simian's speech in London (what little could stomach). Looks like his favorite applause cue for the lemmings in US congress and other "friendly" audiences, his pause/smirk, was missed several times. haha He seemed rather lost when they didn't bring down the house with every cliche'.

What a living, breathing embarrassment that man is to us all.

Julie

[Code_Name_D]

29. What are the "three phases of a bare market?"

I heard this mentioned yesterday. Any one want to educate the unwashed massed (er, me actualy) with the 101 on this? (And it don't look like we are to phase 2 just yet.)

[Maeve]

31. A quick Google answer

"The first phase is disbelief, the second is recognition or acceptance and the third is capitulation or the final purging."
http://www.marketsummaryandforecast.com/2001/BiWeeklyMarketLetter/20010723.htm

You might also read last Friday's Wrap-up on bull and bear markets:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/friday.htm

[Maeve]

32. Hey, they finally noticed the Initial Claims revisions!

Kudos to Beetwasher for catching the story on Yahoo

Data Underestimates New Jobless Claims
By Andrea Hopkins

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor Department (news - web sites), at the urging of Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites), is working to fix a statistical quirk that causes the government to routinely underestimate the number of newly unemployed Americans each week, a department official said on Tuesday.

Each Thursday, Labor issues its count of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the latest week. In 51 of the past 52 weeks, it has also revised the previous week's number upward, making the picture less rosy than it originally appeared.

[Robbien]

33. What I find interesting about this is that the push

for correct numbers is coming from Greenspan. Doesn't appear that Greenspan is down with the cheerleading program headed by Snow etal.

[Maeve]

34. Quote from the Wrapup referenced above

"Greenspan knows better than anyone else of the danger of a collapse of confidence in paper."

If you know how fuzzy the math has been on this issue, are you more or less likely to trust future numbers from the administration?

They report, we deride.

[JNelson6563]

36. A good point but I think

even the Greenman feels they've gotten much too bold lately. I don't think he minded a smidgeon here and there, you know, as like an artificial stimulus. I DO think he doesn't like what he sees further down the road of Overly-bold False-numbers.

He has the stature to simply gesture toward this as worth looking at and that should send a loud, clear signal to Team Bush. Of course with these Mayberry Machiavellis nothing short of a swift back-o'-the hand upside the head can get them to pay attention.

We'll see where this goes.

Julie

[Beetwasher]

37. I think he got fed up with this "quirk" being abused

I'm sure it's always been there, but it's never been shamelessly abused for political purposes. Why else make an issue of it now, all of a sudden if it's always been there?

I think Greenspan realized that confidence in the US economy is plummeting and in order to successfully pull off weakening the dollar in order to stimulate the economy, the US absolutely MUST maintain international confidence in the US financial system. Unfortunately, I think it's too late. The jig is up and the international community realizes the US financial systme is just as corrupt and gamed as any banana republic...It's clear that the admin. wants to pursue a weak dollar to offset the trade inequities and to increase US exports, however, this only works if the weak dollar is the result of US policy and NOT a result of loss of confidence. US policy to weaken the dollar PLUS weakening as a result of loss of confidence equals DISASTER, becaus then the US cannot control the plummet...

[JNelson6563]

40. I couldn't have put it any better

Well stated.

Julie

[Maeve]

35. 11:23 and staying cheerful

I may have been wrong about red ink today (maybe a hold-over from last week's flu!)

Dow 9,677.27 +53.11 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,894.48 +12.73 (+0.68%)
S&P 500 1,039.53 +5.38 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% +0.008

[loudsue]

38. Euros vs. Dollars: In Oct. I had to pay my bank $1.25 for a Euro...

Do any of you guys know where I can buy Euros for what they're supposed to be WORTH??

My bank was 4-cents / dollar cheaper than the exchange at the Airport.

Where do I go to buy them for less???

:shrug: I bought roughly $1,000 worth. It seemed high based on what I read on DU StockWatch ....so I didn't buy any more. Can y'all help?

Thanks in advance...

:loveya: Y'all are a great source of knowledge for us struggling financial non-wizards. Thanks for all you do here!

Sue

[Beetwasher]

39. Need Help With A Link Please!

I remember reading an article many months ago that foreign investment in the US was down like 80%. Anyone got a link? TIA!

[Robbien]

41. Not sure this is what you mean

but the currency article today in Marketwatch states:

Purchases of Treasury securities by foreigners fell to $5.56 billion in September, from $25.2 billion in August, and the smallest amount since foreigners were net sellers of U.S. government debt, by $957 million, in February. Foreigners did boost purchases of U.S. corporate bonds while cutting back on U.S. stock buying.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B791CEC59%2D6B44%2D48A8%2DAC54%2DFF481F1F0F72%7D&siteid=mktw

The whole article is very interesting.

[Beetwasher]

42. That's an interesting article, but it's not the one I was looking for

Thanks though!

[loudsue]

43. "The Only Company Wal-Mart Fears".....great article!!!

I guess you guys saw this on the AOL pop-up news today.

:bounce: I LOVE IT!!! :bounce:

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,538834-1,00.html

I'm going to support Costco however I can from now on! Check out this paragraph:

"James D. Sinegal, the president and CEO of Costco, has no palace guard and no profile to speak of, particularly compared to a retail legend like Sam Walton. Yet he's the guy who in 20 years has taken Costco from a startup to the FORTUNE 50 using, as surely as Mr. Sam, highly distinctive practices. He caps Costco's markups at 14% (department store markups can reach 40%). He offers the best wages and benefits in retail (full-time hourly workers make $40,000 after four years). He gives customers blanket permission for returns: no receipts; no questions; no time limits, except for computers—and even then the grace period is six months."

Now there's a story I like to hear!!

:kick:

edited 'cause I forgot to include the link! Ooops!

[mrsteve]

44. Afternoon to everyone - 12:00 numbers

And the sunshine today shows through a few clouds as we move off session highs in the last 30 minutes.

All the indexes still happily in the black, though.

Dow 9,652.46 +28.30 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,889.73 +7.98 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,037.83 +3.68 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% +0.015

[mrsteve]

45. Happy talk from Yahoo Finance with lot's o market makers

Yahoo Finance Updates
"12:00PM: The market is experiencing a relief bounce on the heels of four consecutive losing sessions... The favorable bias is being supported by this morning's better than expected economic releases, which spoke to the continued resilience of the housing sector... Specifically, the Housing Starts report checked in at its highest level since 1986, or 1.96 mln, above the consensus of 1.85 mln, while the Building Permits report came in at a record reading of 1.97 mln, above the consensus of 1.86 mln...
Separately, applications for mortgages rose 5.6% in the week ending November 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association report, which showed the purchase index rising 13.5% and the refinance index dropping 1.9%... Strikingly, the housing sector has been vacillating around the unchanged line, despite the favorable economic data... The bulk of the sectors are little changed, but laggards of note include the hardware, gold, oil services, and broker-dealer sectors... Among the winners to the upside are the utility, biotech, internet, networking, and semiconductor groups...

The gains in the technology sectors are contributing to the Nasdaq's relative outperformance of its blue-chip counterparts at this juncture... Although encouraging, gains are only mild thus far and are nowhere close to erasing the -2.3-4.6% pullback realized over the last four sessions... While Breifing.com's near-term view is neutral, we believe long-term fundamentals for stocks remain bullish, particularly given the mild rate of inflation and the historically-low interest rates..."

[Maeve]

46. 1:09 update--minimal change this hour

Dow 9,653.65 +29.49 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,888.54 +6.79 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,038.13 +3.98 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205% +0.038

[Code_Name_D]

48. Today is a good news day.

I am starting to pick up on a patern, at least on NPR's market place and other market related news. It is eather a good news day, or a bad news day.

[mrsteve]

47. 1:40 - sharp rise in the last 15 minutes

What happened? Something goosed the markets to a new high for the day.

Dow 9,672.61 +48.45 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,894.12 +12.37 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,040.18 +6.03 (+0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% +0.017

[mrsteve]

49. 2:30 - on the rise again

While gold takes a bit of a beating.

Dow 9,705.20 +81.04 (+0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,901.59 +19.84 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 1,043.04 +8.89 (+0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% +0.066

[JNelson6563]

50. 2:50 slowing down some

and a bruising in Treasuries:

Dow 9,688.83 +64.67 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,898.09 +16.34 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,041.77 +7.62 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% +0.081


Julie

[mrsteve]

51. Julie - I have what is probably a dumb question

How does the 10 year bond index work? I thought that bigger was better for the index, but by your comment it appears that is not so. Could you post a link or write a quick blurb to illuminate the ins and outs of the 10 year Bond index to this pathetic seeker of knowledge?

[JNelson6563]

52. higher yields, lower prices

If the interest rates drop on Treasuries the price rises. If you're holdin' 'em you like to see yields drop, it's a rally.

You know Steve, up is down. ;-)

So if yields are rising that is money leaving Treasuries and their prices are dropping. Obviously then, yields dropping means money going in.

It's always interesting to see the flow. A bit alarming to see Stocks drop and yields rise at the same time. Makes me feel investment is fleeing all things America, which makes me nervous.

Julie

[mrsteve]

54. Wait - I might have it...

Demand for Treasuries leads to a cut in yields (e.g., Treasuries no longer need to attract investors), which is a cut in rates (red ink on the index).

Lack of demand for Treasuries lead to a rise in yields (e.g., Treasuries need to attract investors), which is an increase in rates (black ink on the index).

Is that the relationship?

And from a meta view, wouldn't it be interesting to have a worldwide investment model that could track investment inflows and outflows in all the world's markets, not just the US. Of course, such info might just pop the baloon that the * administration has created that they call "recovery." Wouldn't that be pity, though.

[ozymandius]

53. Good afternoon Marketeers!

The boy is asleep so I can now grab a few moments to check the numbers.

Dow 9,689.06 +64.90 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,898.58 +16.83 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,042.20 +8.05 (+0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.068

The conversation earlier in the thread is fascinating, if not downright scary. The dollar is tanking and the treasuries are having a hard time keeping up with the demand our deficits require. The implications are staggering.

EDIT: The implication of the drain in treasuries leaves me wondering how we are going to service these debts. I also wonder if this is the ponzi scheme that Bush has been playing all along. The last time that the economy crashed, the wealthiest bought up everything in sight for pennies on the dollar.

[ozymandius]

55. stable as we head to the end

3:52
Dow 9,691.72 +67.56 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 1,899.27 +17.52 (+0.93%)
S&P 500 1,042.62 +8.47 (+0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.068

[Maeve]

57. Okay, I was wrong

A cheerful day with no red ink and happy numbers at the end

Dow 9,690.46 +66.30 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,899.65 +17.90 (+0.95%)
S&P 500 1,042.44 +8.29 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.068

[Maeve]

56. Maybe it's the tinfoil speaking, but...

Why do you think the insiders are selling now?

So they can have the funds to buy later.

[ozymandius]

58. and the final numbers are...

Dow 9,690.46 +66.30 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,899.65 +17.90 (+0.95%)
S&P 500 1,042.44 +8.29 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.068

My tinfoil is firmly in place, Maeve. Buy low, sell high. Strike when the iron is hot. You gotta have money to make money. The cliche parade keeps rolling outta my head. I cannot help feel that we are being played.