STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY NOV 20....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 20, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 431
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 342 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 33 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 242
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 726
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 19, 2003

Dow... 9,690.46 +66.30 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq... 1,899.65 +17.90 (+0.95%)
S&P 500.... 1,042.44 +8.29 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% +0.07 (+1.63%)
Gold future... 394.90 -2.70 (-0.68%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Corruption, Greed and Propaganda

The financial markets are a big mess these days. Greed and corruption seem to be the standard on Wall Street. Mutual fund managers and prominent Wall Street brokerage houses have been blatantly ripping-off the investing public, and it’s been going on for quite a long time. Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow are calling for new legislation to regulate mutual funds and to punish the “criminals” who use mutual funds to steal from investors. If these rip-off artists were exposed when the Dow was trading at 7,600, investors would have been SCREAMING, but with the Dow closer to 10,000 the investment community seems indifferent. The scandals have been non-stop since Enron was exposed as a bunch of crooks.

<cut>
Pressure Building

The falling value of U.S. dollars is building pressure under commodity prices. Gold is at the verge of taking out the $400 level, silver is working to break through the $5.40 level on its way to $6.00, then to $7.00, then to the moon, and oil is still hovering in the $33 per barrel area ready to move toward $40. As I say that commodity prices are heading higher, today was a big down day in most of the commodity pits. Meats were down 1 to 4%, metals were down 0.5 to 2%, energies down 1 to 3%, and the grains were clobbered for 1 to 4% on average with wheat down a whopping 6.25% today and soybeans down almost 4%. The falling dollar is the primary contributor to rising commodity prices, but there are now some new developments emerging.

Currency Wars Lead to Trade Wars

The falling dollar has led to turmoil in the currency market and has created a real wrestling match with foreign exchange rates. China’s Renmibi is pegged to the dollar causing the Chinese to be more competitive in world markets. Mexico has lost tons of manufacturing business to China as has Japan. Japan continues to intervene weakening the yen, and Europe has maintained better fiscal discipline than the U.S. giving strength to the euro. The currency wars are now leading into heated trade wars as countries run for protectionist policies.

<cut>
The geopolitical developments are sure to affect our financial markets. Just look at what happened to the price of wheat and soybeans today. China was getting ready to send an entourage here to the U.S. to negotiate soybean contracts and arrange for wheat processing equipment until they learned of the newly proposed import duties. They canceled their trip today. According to St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole, "Protectionist measures, even short term, impose costs on an economy that outweigh any benefits."

Protect yourself as best you can...

[ozymandius]

2. Blasts worry Wall St.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stock futures fell early Thursday, signaling a selloff when markets open, after new explosions rocked Istanbul.

The explosions come less than a week after two car bombs exploded near synagogues in Istanbul, killing 25 people. They serve as a reminder of the terrorism fears that are a backdrop for trading throughout the world since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks that destroyed New York's World Trade Center.

Hewlett-Packard's cautious outlook, the anticipated results from Walt Disney and a handful of economic reports will also get the attention of investors when U.S. trading begins Thursday.

story

[ozymandius]

4. Eurostocks After Istanbul Blasts

LONDON (Reuters) - A series of deadly explosions in the Turkey's largest city sent European share markets sliding on Thursday as nervous investors bailed out of travel and insurance stocks in favor of safe-haven bonds and gold.

"Clearly, geopolitical worries are back to the fore and they are increasing nervousness," said Rupert Thompson, strategist at E*Trade Securities.

Such incidents as those in Turkey were unlikely to be a major drag on markets over coming months, but a major outrage in the West may have a more significant impact, Thompson said.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Markets reel at specter of vote-driven US protectionism

PARIS (AFP) - Protectionist sabre-rattling by the United States ahead of presidential elections is unsettling financial markets, which fear that ensuing currency disarray or a trade war could defeat a global economy struggling to recover.

Already on the brink of a trade war with the European Union (news - web sites) over US steel tariffs, Washington upped the psychological ante Tuesday by announcing quotas on some Chinese textile products, analysts said.

The news unnerved world financial circles, especially raw materials and currency markets, and pushed the euro to a record high 1.1978 dollars.

<cut>
The US protectionist measures themselves are destabilizing the markets by raising new -- and legitimate -- doubts about the viability of the US economy confronted with its giant twin deficits in the current account and budget, he said.

story

Person quoted is Murat Tropak, an economist at French bank Societe Generale.

[ze_dscherman]

17. China to raise tariffs on U.S. goods

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&for

[ozymandius]

5. Wall Street Seen Lower on Turkey Blasts

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street was expected to open much lower on Thursday as geopolitical uncertainty re-emerged after explosions rocked Turkey's capital city of Istanbul and ahead of a key earnings report from Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS - news).

<cut>
Sentiment was damaged by the explosions in Istanbul, one of which hit the headquarters of London-based HSBC Bank (HSBC.L) and another the British Consulate, killing five and injuring 169 people. The blasts follow Saturday's car bomb attacks on Istanbul synagogues.

"It's bad news coming on top of what happened earlier this week and it raises the uncertainty and the risk premium for equity markets," said Adolf Rosenstock at Nomura International.

story

[JNelson6563]

6. Good Morning Marketeers!

Well things look grim and I sure wouldn't want to be a cheerleader today!

Jr is about to speak on the Turkey bombings in about 10 minutes or so. A little swagger, a little tough-guy cowboy talk and I'm sure he'll feel he did his part. I hope he enjoys the protests!

Fabulous wrap-up today BTW Ozy. Endless scandals and now Greenman rethinking the fake-number startegy. What interesting times we live in.

Must get child one off to bus-stop....

Julie

[ozymandius]

9. I can only guess what President Moran will say.

"We grieve for the loss of life..."

"Turrists will not drive us from our mission..."

"Those responsible will be brought to jussice..."

"Now watch this drive...(or something else inane and inappropriate)"

Will the Green-man reign in his "fixers"? It looks like the markets yesterday were driven by some hot wind in their sails.

[JNelson6563]

10. Doesn't it seem interesting

that this is happening while Jr is there and they can point to the terra-threats and claim they were "right" to go into Iraq?

I think the timing is remarkable advantageous for these war criminals.

Julie

[ozymandius]

11. Conversely, I see it as a failure of their policies.

Though I concede your point as logical down-the-rabbit-hole stance on these bombings.

It is not flattering at all that the interests hit in the bombings were British. Just like Bremer's green-zone getting shelled regularly, the utter vulnerability of the British and American positions speak to my mind of utter futility in their goal of enforcing some Pax Americana/Brittania. For Britain, it is looking like Iraq circa 1930 all over again. They (and we) are engaged in a conflict that is impossible to win.

Factor in suicide bombings (a tool that is impossible to fight) and you have a compounded impossible situation. Modern technology and machinery does not change the sum effect of guerilla warfare and terrorist acts.

[fishnfla]

7. Can someone put a smiling face on this gloom and doom already?

Car bombs in Istanbul and Iraq(Kirkuk).

Thousands protest the chimp in Britain.

Hey I know-there's a holiday coming up! The day after Thanksgiving should signal Christmas sales!

Oh Bah humbug already.

[ozymandius]

8. I can suggest a smiley face.

None of these events puts a shine on Bush's stewardship. His comments about the world being "freer and more peaceful" since he took office fall flat in the wake of his loathesome hegemony. And now his economic policies, wholly subborned to his election campaign, inject chaos into the markets - making the US more enemies still.

The distilled message from our outpost here is that we cannot afford another four years of this. The world cannot afford it. Pitiful approval/re-elect numbers for Bush suggest that many outside DU recognize the same. Better yet: this is a year away from the election.

[fishnfla]

13. Amazing isnt it?

The entire world will heave a huge sigh of relief Nov 5th, 2004.Literally the entire fricking globe!

But we are gonna be saddled with the echoes of his failed economic policies for years.

so its "YAY!......and BOO!"

[Maeve]

12. That time of the week again

For the record--Last week, Initial claims were at 366K and are expected (surprise) to fall again this week to 360-365K. However, until the creation of new jobs reaches 170,000 per month, the hole is just getting bigger slower. We need that many to handle population growth, more to make up for the jobs lost since Dubya took office.

The relief that the markets gained yesterday instead of a fifth down day is almost palpable...there is a whiff of fear among the talking heads again. We shall see what we shall see.

[JNelson6563]

14. Futures have been pretty grim

and with the foreign currency debacle getting more press and the terra! Terra! Terra! Oh and Freddie Mac overstated earnings in '01 by a billion dollars.

What a surprise to see gold going up.

At least 25 dead now in Turkey and some 400+ wounded. Dare we hope there are no more at least for today?

Julie

[Maeve]

16. Initial Claims lower than expected

Jobless claims fall to 355,000 in latest week from revised 370,000 in prior week. Details coming.

edited to add link and caveat from bottom of the article:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/20/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

"But continued claims, the number of people out of work for a week or more, rose to 3.5 million for the week ended Nov. 8, the latest data available, from a revised 3.48 million the prior week."

[Maeve]

18. BTW, I found a chart of Initial Claims over the past 5 years

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp

Looks like it might be an interesting site, too.

[JNelson6563]

20. as was commented on on CNBC this morn

UE #s have been revised 51 out the last 52 weeks. The most whorish Bushista on the show (Steve Leaseman) quickly shut down that concept and moved on.

51 out of 52 weeks. Hmmm.

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.62 Change -0.28 (-0.31%)

and it sure looks like an iffy day for the dollar - talk of BoJ intervention is keeping it from dropping like a lead balloon, but it make take more than talk to prevent that

here's a little bit of opinion

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE0EF5D85-5195-4401-9992-576B54CA093C%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

Is the dollar a looming crisis?

Foreigners have played a key role in financing both deficits.

Should they now balk at continuing to do so, something will have to give in order to provide them with a higher reward for continuing to invest in what they perceive as increasingly risky dollar denominated financial assets.

Two possibilities come immediately to mind: the exchange value of the dollar and dollar interest rates. Or both, meaning the dollar down and interest rates up.

If this thinking is correct, then what we are now seeing is just the beginning of a major financial readjustment.

There are those who believe that such a readjustment could very well come in the form of a currency crisis if China and Japan -- the two countries that play key roles in recycling dollars back to this country through their massive purchases of U.S. government securities -- should suddenly stop doing so until the price is right.

he then goes on to cheerlead that the above will not happen - guess he got his memo and directions :D

Have a great day Marketeers!

[Maeve]

19. A commentary for bond marketeers--remember Stagflation?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/20/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stagflation, that dangerous mix of high inflation and low growth that socked the U.S. economy back in the 1970s isn't on anybody's radar screen these days. Except, apparently, the bond market's.

Over the past several months there has been steady buying in Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, the returns of which rise and fall with inflation. As a result, the spread on the yield between 10-year TIPS and 10-year Treasurys has grown to 2.37 percent from around 1.75 percent back in June. The spread is near its widest levels since 2000.

A relatively new asset class, buying TIPS makes sense if you are worried over the prospect of a rise in inflation; if you expect falling inflation or, worse still, deflation, TIPS are not a good bet. The Fed is worried about the latter scenario but some big investors are more worried about the former. Bill Gross, the bond manager who overseas PIMCO's more-than $250 billion portfolio, has said he is an active buyer of TIPS.


At the same time, however, absolute yields on 10-year Treasurys, at 4.2 percent, are quite low. That suggests a forecast of a less than robust economic environment in the years to come -- one where the Federal Reserve will not see fit to raise rates by all that much.

Put the rising TIPS spread and low Treasury yields together and what do you get? That's right: Stagflation.
<more>

[Maeve]

21. Out of the gate---they're off!

Dow 9,676.46 -14.00 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,883.76 -15.89 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,039.94 -2.49 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.200% -0.035

[Maeve]

22. And off-er

Dow 9,658.76 -31.70 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,888.65 -11.00 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,037.31 -5.12 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% -0.045

[JNelson6563]

23. and off-er-er

15 minutes in and here's where we are:

Dow 9,645.71 -44.75 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,890.12 -9.53 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,037.12 -5.32 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.046

I don't like the looks of things. Seems as though so many things hitting at once. Like a build-up to something....something not good.

Julie

[jamesinca]

24. almost all of yesterdays gains gone in the first 1/2 hour

A cup of coffee is easier to wake up to than that, even burning your tounge on the coffe is easier than this I suspect. Your right Julie, something is not right( Bush) and it is hitting us.

[ozymandius]

25. A sudden lurch upward...

10:09 bounce?

Dow 9,674.08 -16.38 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,898.50 -1.15 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,040.64 -1.80 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168% -0.067

[Maeve]

26. You know the drill--"buying opportunity"!

Buy at the bounce and hope the lemmings don't catch on...

Dow 9,664.74 -25.72 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,903.70 +4.05 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,040.92 -1.52 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% -0.045

[ozymandius]

27. 10:55 and losses abate

Dow 9,683.87 -6.59 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,909.43 +9.78 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,042.57 +0.13 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% -0.039

I must leave for the rest of the trading day - work calls. I'll check back this evening. Be well, all.

Ozymandius

[Maeve]

28. 12:42 Update with blather

Dow 9,689.87 -0.59 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,911.03 +11.38 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,043.10 +0.66 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.047

12:30PM: The Philadelphia Fed Index report, announced at 12ET, checked in at 25.9 (consensus 30.0)... All of the major averages were in positive territory at the time the report was released and have taken a hit since because the number checked in worse than expected... Keep in mind, though, that 25.9 is a very strong number indicative of strength in the manufacturing sector, which is consistent with the better than expected NY Empire State report from Monday, continued increase in industrial production, and an expanding economy...
Combined with this morning's better than expected Initial Claims report (at 355K), which was telling of a stabilizing employment market, expectations remain set for the economy to continue accelerating... As a result, underlying fundamentals remain bullish for stocks longer-term, as long as interest rates maintain their historically-low levels...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[mrsteve]

29. 1:30 - sideways for a mid-day lull - hello everyone

After the bump upward caused the Fed report at noon, little market movement.

Dow 9,716.83 +26.37 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,913.37 +13.72 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 1,045.37 +2.93 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.204% -0.031

[mrsteve]

30. Yahoo Finance Cheerleading - "ability to build...encouraging to the bulls"

Hmmm...gold is taking quite the hit in the last two days.

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"1:00PM: The slight pullback on the heels of the lower than expected Philly Fed Index proved to be a knee-jerk reaction, as the major averages extend their upward track, with the blue-chip indices having joined the Nasdaq in positive territory... Biotech and technology sectors maintain their leadership position to the upside, but the majority of the sectors are currently in the green...
Among the few remaining laggards of note are the gold, drug, and retail sectors...
The market's ability to build on yesterday's gains, especially in the face of this morning's geopolitical concerns is encouraging to the bulls... The small- and mid-cap averages are also catching a bid, with the S&P 400 and the Russell 2000 outperforming the Dow and the S&P 500 on a relative basis... Overall, the U.S. equities are relatively outperforming the European bourses, which closed with the DAX, CAC, and FTSE down -0.4%, -0.6%, and -0.5%, respectively..."

[JNelson6563]

31. Nothing to be to excited about.

Hey Steve! :hi: I don't care what they say I think gold looks good.

At 2:18 here's a snapshot:

Dow 9,699.94 +9.48 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,908.05 +8.40 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,043.53 +1.10 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% -0.045


I leave now to take my virtuoso off to her lessons. The lion's share of our investment money seems to go into raising cultured children with straight teeth. ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

32. looks like they're

saving their "chips" at the table until nearer the bell to get it up to 9700 for the day


Dow 9,694.24 +3.78 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,902.61 +2.96 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,042.82 +0.39 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% -0.058

[mrsteve]

33. Yes, but children are a much better investment

As I pointed out when comparing Saturday morning chores with a friend - I had to take my car in for service, he had to take his children to the dentist - my time and money was going into something that depreciated, his time and money was going into something that appreciated.

A much better way to think of child rearing expenses, I believe.

(on edit - typo)

[mrsteve]

34. 3:10 - okay, who pushed?

Market dropping like a rock off a cliff in the last 10 minutes.

Dow 9,643.72 -46.74 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,890.07 -9.58 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,036.93 -5.51 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% -0.062

(on edit - moved time from CST to EST)

[Robbien]

35. How high was that cliff, it looks like a long hard fall (at 3:24p)

Dow 9,623.13 -67.33 (-0.69%)

Nasdaq 1,883.95 -15.70 (-0.83%)

S&P 500 1,034.57 -7.87 (-0.75%)

10-Yr Bond 4.173% -0.062

[mrsteve]

36. Wow - roughly 100 point Dow drop in the last 2 hours

And most of that (60%) in the last 15 minutes.

Maybe it's Greenspan - he spoke at 2:00, and although he tried to be reassuring maybe Wall Street isn't so sure. Not a happy headline below, either.

How hard will the dollar fall?

"Fed Chairman says wide U.S. trade gap can be corrected in orderly way, but it's not a sure thing.
November 20, 2003: 2:01 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Though Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday the huge U.S. trade deficit can shrink without crippling the dollar, and U.S. financial markets along with it, analysts warned a dollar plunge can't be ruled out.

In a speech in Washington, Greenspan said the U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the world, which has widened to about 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), can shrink without a sharp dollar correction."

<snip>

[mrsteve]

37. More good quotes from the same CNN/Money article

"But things are different this time, with rock-bottom U.S. interest rates making the country less attractive to investors from abroad, while those same investors are growing more worried about Washington's approach to foreign relations and trade. All that adds up to a bitter cocktail that could turn off foreign investors, raising the risk that things could get ugly.

"Markets become disorderly due to aggregate psychology. That's difficult for anyone to assess at any time, but you look for red flags, like significant overreactions to data," said David Gilmore, currency analyst at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Connecticut.

Tuesday's sharp dollar decline, which hurt U.S. stock prices, was an example of just such an overreaction, Gilmore said. The "fairly minor news" that the United States was imposing quotas on a small number of Chinese textiles was met by much gnashing of teeth in the currency market, evidence, Gilmore said, of a "very nervous market.""

[Robbien]

38. fairly minor news? Quotas on Chinese textiles?

I want some of whatever that reporter is smoking.

[mrsteve]

39. Market close - Wap! Big smackdown for end of day

Interesting end to what looked to be a boring day during lunch.

Dow 9,619.42 -71.04 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 1,881.92 -17.73 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,033.65 -8.79 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.154% -0.081

See everyone tomorrow.

[JNelson6563]

40. Zowie!!

I really hadn't expected a bloodletting when checking in for final #s. Ouch!

Catch you in the AM!

Julie