TIMECNN POLL: Most Registered Voters Would Choose Bush

[meisje]

New York – If the 2004 Presidential election was held today, registered voters surveyed for TIME/CNN would choose President George W. Bush over any of the declared Democratic candidates.

In a direct run against Bush, Gen. Wesley Clark fares the best among registered voters (Clark 42%, Bush 49%), closely followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (Kerry 41%, Bush 49%).

Bush would beat any of three other Democrats, 52 percent to 39 percent, in a direct match: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, or Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Against Bush, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards would lose, 38 percent to 52 percent.

When registered Democrats are asked which Democratic presidential nominee they would vote for, Dean edges out Clark 14 percent to 12 percent, followed Lieberman (11%), Kerry (9%), Gephardt (6%), then Edwards and the Rev. Al Sharpton (5%).

The TIME/CNN Poll, conducted November 18-19, 2003 by HarrisInteractive, surveyed 1,330 registered voters by telephone. The margin of error is +/-2.7% points for registered voters, and +/-4.7% for Democratic voters surveyed for TIME/CNN.

Developing... Smudge

[jenk]

1. yea, we've seen similar numbers for a while

still, america barely knows our candidates yet.

[goforit]

13. And you beleive then, eh?

This is a problem for for many on the DU.

Total acceptance of phoney polls to be reality!

[liberalhistorian]

18. The problem isn't whether or not we on DU

believe it, the problem is that most Americans believe them, whether they're accurate and true or not.

[Occulus]

75. Know what I keep hearing though?

People are buying these polls... and then stating they won't vote for *, even if they did the first time.

Makes me wonder if some of these "polls" are completely fabricated. Lord know I've never been polled, nor do I know or have ever met anyone who has....

[Eochaidh]

79. it doesn't matter

the real problem is that of course all of us here are politically active, but the majority of americans aren't. it doesn't surprise me that bush ranks high among REGISTERED voters. most of the people in the nation, however, aren't registered. and of those that are, something like 30-40% regularly vote. the people who are being screwed the worst don't think that their votes will count, and they're probably right. and yet, we have to keep a certain idealism, or even the flicker of hope could die. it's damned hard trying to convince people of that, though. they'd rather watch survivor.

[newyawker99]

80. Hi Eochaidh!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[La_Serpiente]

2. Looks like we got some work to do

We still have a year left, more than enough time to campaign.

[Military Brat]

3. Big surprise, coming from "put on a happy face" CNN

Maybe if they actually reported genuine news once in a while, the polls would reflect something other than Bizarro World.

[Cha]

9. Exactly! Take England for instance where they

get the real news!

"George Galloway delivers a great line: "God bless the people of America, but God damn George Bush!"

[SaveAmericaPlease]

4. These Polls Don't Exist....

1. You know this poll is a lie. I have a question...a question I have been asking from NY to LA from Detroit to Miami...for over a year now......

Have you, your uncle, mother, father or anyone ever been polled by CNN or other mainstream pollers or know anyone who has? I have yet to have found ONE PERSON WHO HAS EVER BEEN POLLED......now we are talking about people here who are in their 60s....they've never been polled...and they dont know anyone who has been polled!!!.... soo soon....this fraud...is coming to an end.

2. In 'O4 the question is simple. Are you an American or are you facist? Which one are you bro? Vote accordingly.

See you there....

[Tuttle]

7. Exactly....

did you know that AARP poll that had 75% approval of the Medicare Prescription Drug Bill? They polled 494 members (according to their website) - they have over 35,000,000 members (also according to their website - though many members are resigning). So roughly 370 members have decided policy for 35 million!!!

These polls are VERY UN-SCIENTIFIC!

Tut-tut

[Teaser]

8. Your study doesn't sound scientific to me

What is your sample size?

[Dr Fate]

71. Well, I've NEVER been polled, or known anyone who has either...

...

[alarcojon]

17. A thought on polling

There are roughly 300,000,000 Americans, and a typical poll uses about 800 people. It would take hundreds of thousands of polls to give a fairly good chance that you individually were asked. I, for one, am 37 years old and HAVE been polled.

The mathematics behind polling is sound. That having been said, polls are widely misconducted and misinterpreted in this country. Who here has noticed how the Fox polls are freqently more skewed in Bush's favor than the others? This may be due to poor collection of data, different wording of questions, fraud, or some combination of these.

B-)

[newyawker99]

81. Hi alarcoeg!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[bikebloke]

45. Number 3

Has anyone ever heard of an independent body that verifies the legitimacy of these "polls"?

And considering the source, CNN (Corporate Nazi News), it's merely a propaganda nudge for the junta.

[Catherine Vincent]

69. That is true. and we all know that the pollsters more than likely

go through thousands of people that don't answer their phones or hang up on them. Whenever I see an unavailable number or something of that nature, I don't pick up. We're not being polled because we don't pick up or we just hang up on them figuring they are soliciting.

[tabasco]

5. If true, this is downright scary.

We have a needless war on out hands and this many idiots would vote for more. Jesus Christ, maybe it does take a draft to get people's attention. How many of these people would do a little bit more critical analysis if their ass was on the line? I hope the newly unemployed people remember to vote.

[0007]

6. yawn! so if junior is such a cinch to retain his stolen prize..

..why tell us? Why waste money going out and polling people?

[Nashyra]

11. They don't even know our candidates

and Clark polls at 42%. Since Kerry and Clark poll the best it seems that a candidate strong on national security would fare best in the general election. If Clark is at 42% and he is not yet the nominee, if or when he becomes the nominee he will clean *'s clock. Clark has the ability to go over the chimp's head with national security and diplomacy. He is their worse nightmare.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[alfredo]

32. Don't be so negative. We have just begun to fight to regain our

democracy. A defeatist attitude is surrender to the corporatist powers.

You need to get out, get involved with a candidate, or a cause. It will do wonders for you and those around you.

[devinsgram]

33. Yeah, right.

[MoonRiver]

58. "Bush's numbers will probably go UP"???

:wtf:

Did you simply mispeak or do you need a link to Freeperland?

[ldf]

66. Once the get to know them

you mean in contrast to how americans HAVEN'T been informed about bush's history, and his screwups?

but again, you are counting on that, aren't you?

[NashVegas]

34. Ding! Ding! Ding!

Quick!

How many debates have been carried live on network - not cable - TV?

[0007]

40. PBS did one - I think ABC is doing the next one?

[AntiCoup2K4]

64. FAUX has done two

But how many Democrats watch Faux??

(Aside from those of us who sacrifice our sanity now and then to keep an eye on the PNAC agenda)

[janx]

59. Good point. Most people don't pay any attention until the

general election. I don't even know why CNN or anyone else does a poll re the general election this far ahead of time.

[aquart]

10. Is "registered" the same as "likely"?

Edit: Let me answer that: NO.

Polls ask if you are registered as one question and if you are likely to vote in another. A good one will also ask if you voted in the last election(s).

Why aren't they giving us the number for likely voters?

[SadEagle]

20. Do they know if they are really registered, to?

Since I imagine people are somewhat likely to lie on this type of question.

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[janx]

60. and the pollsters know this...how?

"The likely voters are those who will actually vote."

??

The likely voters are really those who the pollsters THINK will vote.

[TomNickell]

61. right, they're guessing...

Statistical juggling of the data. Anyone not registered is unlikely to vote. College educated more likely, etc.

[liberalhistorian]

12. A similar poll showing similar results

was in my paper, the Cleveland Plain Dealer today, and I just couldn't believe it. Actually, considering how the sheeple have been acting the past couple of years, I guess I do believe it, I just don't want to.

And this shows, once again, why I'm deadly damn serious about taking the kid and moving to Canada, because I just can't take it anymore. I've been fighting the stupidity and apathy of the sheeple since I was 15 years old, when Raygun was first elected by the idiot majority, and I'm tired.

When I saw that poll this morning, and realized that, after all that's happened and all he's been responsible for and how he's systematically, methodically, and ruthlessly destroying and trashing this country, everything it stands for, and, as Paul Krugman put it, radically assaulting and dismantling all of the institutions that make life bearable and livable for those not in the top 10% economically, the damn ignorant apathetic stupid numbskull clueless idiotic dumbass American sheeple STILL approve of him in the majority, that was it.

In fact, that makes it even worse as far as I'm concerned, that Americans would totally disregard all the shit that surrounds him and that has happened, and vote for their own destruction. I, for one, am tired. Call me a traitor, call me a lily-livered, chickenshit sell-out, call me a treasonous bitch, call me what you will. But I have a son to consider (no WAY am I raising him in this continued situation, especially since they'll probably bring back the draft and he'll be considered nothing more than cannon fodder to use for our leaders' own political games and ambitions), and my own life and sanity to maintain. He's even afraid of school, now, since that little fascist police state incident in the South Carolina high school, worrying if it could happen in his own school and being afraid of the police.

[Woodstock]

14. The generic Democrat still beats Bush in 9 out of 10 polls

The rest is just a name recognition issue.

If someone asks the average Joe,

Would you vote for Tobias McGuillicuddy or George Bush?

(which is what Howard Dean or Wesley Clark sounds like to the uninformed)

then they are picking the one they know, Bush.

But when they are asked if Bush deserves another term, most say No

and when they are asked if they would vote Democratic or Republican, most say Democratic.

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TomNickell]

65. Right.

The polls really haven't looked good for * for some time.

Even when his Approval numbers were still very high, his 're-elect' numbers were low (for an incumbent).

Any Democratic nominee who is not a goat and does not sleep with small boys will be able to beat this joker.

[SheilaT]

15. What doesn't make sense

is that numerous other polls give Bush's re-elect numbers as well under 50%. Why the discrepancy?

Also, the difference between the margin of error for registered voters vs Democratic voters is interesting, and indicates they didn't get enough Democratic voters for it to be a very good (meaning valid) survey.

In years past I've been polled on the telephone, but always much closer than this to election day.

The other really huge problem with polling results these days is that so many people use caller ID to screen calls and won't answer if the call is one they don't want to answer. And apparently about half of the people they call refuse to participate in the polls, so they have to go to the next name on the list. Reputable pollsters don't think they're getting a good (valid) result anymore.

[The Zanti Regent]

16. I do not believe anything in Time Magazine

Time has always been a GOP Propaganda organ, no matter who, Henry Luce, or the assholes at CNN, run it.

[leesa]

19. Forget the polls ...open your eyes and talk to people

Cox Communications today. Spoke with a rep getting my service back on line. She was talking about how terrible the economy is and how it looks like we're headed toward a great depression again with all the jobless, etc...
This is CNN and Time for God's sake, they work for the Bush Crime Family!

[meisje]

21. If this poll were pro dem you would be gloating, I don't get it

People here only seem to believe the polls or news that are pro dem and want to discredit anything else that says otherwise. If you think for a second that this poll could not be true and Bush has no chance then you are in a massive amount of denial

[leesa]

31. No, that's not true. I don't give polls credence one way or another

I know they are as unreliable as CNN and Time are regarding news, which is why I say to look around. Bush will only win by stealing the election which he fully intends to do as they did in 2000 and 2002 and the California recall. I don't believe any of the polls because they are controlled by the same people that control the media.

[janx]

68. Not so. I just don't think that a national poll like this,

so far ahead of the general election and pitting an unknown candidate against Bush, is indicative of much.

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mbperrin]

36. Exactly what encouraging news would that be?

Consumer spending down .3% last month?
Productivity up (which means fewer people working to do the same work)?
Record number of bankruptcies in history?
Biggest deficit of all time to finance?
Potential trade war with Europe to the tune of $6 billion US lost?
Potential trade war with China to the tune of God only knows?
Nearly 3 million Americans who've lost jobs in the last 3 years?
The coming oblivion of the Social Security system?
More soldiers killed in 6 months in Iraq than the first 3 years of Vietnam?
The freedom from liability of MTBE contamination?
Which news was that?

[calimary]

39. I hope you encouraged her to vote for change next November...

[Cocoa]

22. how many of them could name a single dem candidate?

back in the summer, it was something like 30%. My guess it's up to 45%.

Remember, that's being able to name a SINGLE dem candidate.

[schultzee]

23. I don't believe this poll.

[scarface2004]

24. timecnn polls....

are absolute bullshit!!!!!!!!!

[Turbineguy]

29. Sure, but what about

1). Bush

2). Anyone but Bush

3). My goldfish, Ferdinand

[enough]

30. The FEAR factor?

I think things have gotten to the point where many people called at home on their own telephone would be afraid to say they will vote against Bush.

The Republicans are shouting that dissent is treason, and we know what the Patriot Act lets them do with anyone they think is a "threat." Gitmo has its subconscious reverberations -- very useful for them.

Yes, I think we are at that point.

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[shamanstar]

35. did anyone vote in this survey?

i didnt vote in this survey- neither did anyone i know. hmm...

[davhill]

76. I was polled last week

I said I was undecided but leaning toward Dean. I wonder how they put me down? I wonder if a lot of the people they polled said something similar and got counted as undecided.

[Zynx]

38. This isn't surprising.

Most people simply hear a title and a name and think "Who the hell is that?". Bush's father had similar numbers over all of his opponents at this time with Tsongas doing the best back then IIRC.

[imax2268]

41. That's funny...

I can remember hearing that same information about Bush a few months ago on Drudge...

and something else...everyone that I talk to whether it be normal conversation or what have you...everyone I meet says that they can't wait to vote his a$$ out...now grant it I haven't spoke to everyone in the country...but I would say about 6 out of 10 people say they are NOT going to vote for Bush...

This poll is utter garbage...just my honest opinion...

[young_at_heart]

42. Maybe the media could tell these people about Bush's cuts to veterans

$28 billion was the amount of proposed cuts to veterans' benefits in the congressional Republicans' budget resolution for fiscal year 2004. In the end they ONLY cut $6 billion.

[Skydiver]

43. They don't need real humans

to produce any poll results as requested by the junta. They simply use Diebold software.

[newyawker99]

82. Hi Skydiver!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[imax2268]

44. I saw something else that

caught my eye...when I went to CNN.com and Time.com...the searches for that poll are nowhere to be found...only when I did a web search did I find this listed under Drudge Report...so this raises my doubts that it's actually true...!

Any thoughts...?

[Kinkistyle]

46. "Dem Nominee" versus Bush - Dem wins

Bush consistently beats individual Democratic candidates in most polls, but when it comes down to a choice between a Democratic Nominee (regardless who) versus Bush, the Democratic Nominee wins. The point is, people are tired of Bush. They just want him out of office.

[Name removed]

47. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TheWatcher]

53. The Problem is Pondo.....

You don't seem to know how to address any point you've been challenged on....

Now before you breathe anymore hot air on everybody here, kindly explain to the class, with detailed, verifiable, supportable facts, as well as links to back up your information, as to HOW the economy is improving.....


Otherwise, spare us your disruptive, mindless one-liners, and kindly STFU.....

[alfredo]

67. Stop feeding the trolls.

I replied once to him before i looked at his other posts. He/she/it is a disruptor.
If you believe the admin should take a look, hit alert.

Pondo, you are not adding to the discussion, just seeding FUD. Show us the data, and a possible solution. We come here to vent, and to work for a common goal. Your body of works display a lack of support for the goals of this community. Those goals are the betterment of this country through promotion of the ideals of the Democratic Party. If you are in support of leading through fear, uncertainty and doubt, then you should seek out a Republican or neo fascist bulletin board.

[wabeewoman]

48. +/-2.7% points for registered voters, and +/-4.7% for Democratic voters

What this means is they polled fewer democrats because the margin of error is higher- they must have talked to about 600 democrats. I thought you had to have about 2000 people polled to be a statistically valid sample but I notice the numbers they are using get smaller and smaller with some polls using only 500 people. Of course, they list a larger margin of error because of the size but I think it decreases the creditability of the poll. Isn't it about 50% of registered voters who vote in a presidential election? So something like 20% of the population decide the presidency. I think those 20% feel much stronger about bush (negatively) than the general population and they are damn sure going to vote!

[TomNickell]

63. They took 1 big sample and

divided it up. Whatever % said they were Democrats, they used.

Margin or error -increases- as the number sampled -decreases-. Any number above 10 or so is 'valid'. The MOE is just bigger.

[JI7]

49. moron voters

it's the moron voters again. they aren't very informed and probably want to have a beer with bush.

[kodi]

50. actually, except against fringe candidates, a non-bush voter is "most"

in fact, "most" would not vote for bush when one is objectively considering the top and likely opposition candidates.

the claim could as well be made that in a head to head race against the top three leading democratic candidates, bush does not get a majority of the votes, in fact, he gets less than 50%, less than a majority, placing it actually in a "non-most" category against each major candidate.

this is what is hidden in the expression of "most" would vote for bush.

this is the way language is abused for ideological ends.

[JCMach1]

51. This indicates a horse race-- incumbent below 50%

Also, it is VERY early in the season... As soon as there is a Dem. nominee the picture changes dramatically and so will the polls.

There will be a real race next year and the nomine (regardless of the person) will have a decent chance.

[Oreegone]

52. What a bunch of crap

If you aren't looking at something real like the Zodby poll, its just shit. Its like us taking a poll on DU and saying that's how the American public feels. CNN has no real poll. It has people who happen to be on the website or watching the news and decide to respond....I can't even believe anyone takes this shit seriously but then there were a bunch of liberals who bought the Republican myth that Gore and Bush were alike....yeah right lets see our clean air, clean water, Medicare, logging mining laws have all been rolled back, like Gore who wrote a book on Environmentalism would have done any, I mean any of that shit let alone stick us in Iraq....wake up Sheeple time is running out.:nuke:

[farmboxer]

54. The Republican Manufactured And Programmed Voting

machines, that's what the poll is counting on!

[mrdmk]

55. Here is an internet poll done by MSNBC

Tell us what you think about Iraq, Bush, Rumsfeld and the 2004 election. Click the “Vote” button at the bottom to submit your results and see others’ responses, then click here to see how Americans nationwide answered these and other questions in this week’s NEWSWEEK poll.

The percentages in blue represent the results of the national poll, not including your responses. The black numbers are results from this online poll and include your responses.

The NEWSWEEK poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, which interviewed 1,007 adults by telephone on Oct. 23 - 24. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For those questions which surveyed registered voters, 829 people were interviewed, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For those questions which surveyed Democrats and Democratic leaners, 356 people were interviewed and the margin of error is plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Internet surveys are not scientific polls.


8630 web site responses
* Percentages may not total to 100% for each question due to non-responses

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

MSNBC
Approve 10%
Disapprove 89%
Don't know 1%

Newsweek
Approve 51%
Disapprove 40%
Don't know 9%

2. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term as president?

MSNBC
Yes 10%
No 88%
Don't know 2%

Newsweek
Yes 46%
No 47%
Don't know 7%

3. When you are deciding whether or not to vote for George W. Bush in next year's presidential election, how important do you think his Iraq policy will be in making up your mind?

MSNBC
The single most important issue 8%
One of several very important issues 85%
Only somewhat important 5%
Not important 2%
Don't know 0%

Newsweek
The single most important issue 11%
One of several very important issues 50%
Only somewhat important 24%
Not important 12%
Don't know 3%

4. Do you think the amount of money the United States is spending for operations in postwar Iraq is too high, too low, or about right?

MSNBC
Too high 82%
Too low 3%
About right 9%
Don't know 5%

Newsweek
Too high 58%
Too low 3%
About right 31%
Don't know 8%

5. Which of the following two statements comes closer to your own views about Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his leadership in the war against terrorism?

He is providing the kind of strong leadership that is needed to root out terrorism and make Americans safer
MSNBC
10%

Newsweek
47%

His approach to fighting terrorism is too ideological and insensitive to the concerns of those who don't share his views to be successful

MSNBC
87%

Newsweek
37%

Don't know

MSNBC
3%

Newsweek
16%

6. In general, do you think the Democratic Party's next presidential candidate should be

Someone who generally supported the war with Iraq and Bush Iraq policy

MSNBC
8%

Newsweek
20%

Someone who has been a strong critic of the war and Bush Iraq policy

MSNBC
65%

Newsweek
44%

Doesn't make much difference either way

MSNBC
24%

Newsweek
32%

Don't know

MSNBC
3%

Newsweek
4%

Of course, do not think the MSNBC numbers refect the general public's opinon. The MSNBC poll does refect the opinons of people who want to be polictly informed/active.

Also, I hope these numbers do make some people feel a little better (another words, a hope for humanity).

P.S. I did the best I could with the formatting.

[newyawker99]

83. Hi mrdmk!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[okieinpain]

56. well this is up from a few months ago, when they were going

most people don't even know who the democratic runners are.

[dusty64]

57. This poll doesn't

jibe with all the others I've seen, including faux. Most show chimp's elect numbers in the LOW forties.

[young_at_heart]

62. Can we tell voters how he has suppressed presidential papers?

He signed an executive order which enables him to suppress the release of his presidential papers and those of his three predecessors. Where is the outrage? What is he hiding and why doesn't the press talk about such an important issue?

[shrike]

70. I've seen other polls with different results

Two I saw recently put Clark about neck-and-neck with Bush. Also, other polls have put Bush about even with an unnamed Democrat. So there's no need to panic over one poll.

[Nashyra]

72. This polling might work against *

Talked to two greens this morning who had said they would never vote major party again but have got to vote for Dem now, also a Repub lite who has said before that she would not vote at all because she could not vote for * but could not vote for a Dem has now changed her mind and will grudgingly vote for a Dem anything to get * out of the WH.

[davhill]

74. oops

[Dr Fate]

73. Like CBS, CNN probably clears it's content through the RNC...

...Apparently all networks have to have their content cleared by the RNC before it can air. This is a documented fact with CBS, so it could also be the case w/ CNN...

[mobuto]

77. And Clark is on top

Not only is Clark more liberal than Dean, but he's also electable.

Kerry is the most liberal by far, and he's in front as well.

[Triana]

78. same old same old

...and the PropOGanda begins...

This is the old tactic of the White House and the complicit media putting out 'fake' poll numbers to DISCOURAGE Democrats and Democratic voters.

That is the SOLE PURPOSE of these bullshit polls.

We all KNOW that Zogby recently and numerous times, had polls that indicate JUST THE OPPOSITE. Zogby may be (IMO) a tad bit more reliable than TIME/CNN (WHO owns them, again?)

Think about it.

C'mon folks. DON'T BUY THIS BULLSHIT! Sheeesh!

[robbedvoter]

84. Clark fares best. As the Quinnipiac guy once said:

Bush is ahead, but he's hearing footsteps. The loudest come from Gen. Wesley Clark's combat boots...."

Quinnipiac University's polling director, Maurice Carroll.

[chillwindblowing]

85. don't believe this crap

LIES LIES that is all they know whistle ass is whisting in the dark. Have a little faith in the good of the American People. they will not stand for all of the lies and destruction . O8)

[young_at_heart]

86. Have you forgotten their code?

Keep saying something over and over and it becomes "the truth". They have so MUCH money they can bombard the media with ads saying whatever they choose over and over and over. It's beyond depressing!

[ikojo]

87. This is why we must get to educating people and

registering them to vote. Most unregistered voters are poor and do not see the politicians really caring about them and their family. I can understand where that feeling comes from, especially seeing that overtime pay is now something of the past (with very little real union opposition...after all they have negotiated contracts so it will really only affect the MAJORITY of workers not in a union).

[number6]

88. I've nvr been polled, or known anyone who has either...

I don't buy it....* hsnt got more than 49% unless he cheats.

[Rose Siding]

89. In Dec '99, Gore trailed Bush by 11 pts

http://www.cnn.com/1999/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/22/poll.cnn/

And Gore trailed Bush by SIXTEEN points in Oct '99

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/10/25/poll.gore/