STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY NOV 24....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday November 24, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 427
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 346 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 37 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 246
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 730
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 21, 2003

Dow... 9,628.53 +9.11 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 1,893.88 +11.96 (+0.64%)
S&P 500.... 1,035.28 +1.63 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.15% -0.01 (-0.17%)
Gold future... 396.00 +2.30 (+0.58%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

"The Setup Continues"

A lot of technical damage has been done this week. The DJIA lost 140.15 points for the week closing the week at 9,628.53. The DJTA lost 82.32 points for the week closing the week at 2,845.32. It is not the number of points lost this week that is so negative. It is the fact that my intermediate term indicators have turned bearish. However, in spite of the down turn of these intermediate indicators, price has continued to hold up rather well given the technical weakness that has now surfaced. Also, the Dow Industrials have managed to remain above their 50% level at 9,504.64. The Dow Transports have now closed below their 50% level at 2,862.85. The short-term indicators are getting pretty over sold and we are moving into the timing window for a short term low. Therefore, we should expect to see a short term low in the market in the next few days. It is certainly due. Any rally that materializes from this short term low is very important. Should any such rally prove to be a failure it could be real trouble for the market.

<cut>

Anatomy of a Typical Crisis
The Model

“We start with the model of the late Hyman Minsky, a man with a reputation among monetary theorists for being particularly pessimistic, even lugubrious, in his emphasis on the fragility of the monetary system and its propensity to disaster. Although Minsky was a monetary theorist rather than an economic historian, his model lends itself effectively to the interpretation of economic and financial history. Indeed, in its emphasis on the instability of the credit system, it is a lineal descendant of a model, set out with personal variations, by a host of classical economists including John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, Knut Wicksell, and Irving Fisher. Like Fisher, Minsky attached great importance to the role of debt structures in causing financial difficulties, and especially debt contracted to leverage the acquisition of speculative assets for subsequent resale.

<cut>

Although Minsky’s model is limited to single country, overtrading has historically tended to spread from one country to another. The conduits are many. Internationally traded commodities and assets that go up in price in one market will rise in others through arbitrage. The foreign-trade multiplier communicates income changes in a given country to others through increased or decreased imports. Capital flows constitute a third link. Money flows of gold, silver (under gold standard or bimetallism), or foreign exchange are a fourth. And there are purely psychological connections, as when investor euphoria or pessimism in one country infects investors in others. The declines in prices on October 24 and 29, 1929, and October 19, 1987, were practically instantaneous in all financial markets (except Japan), far faster than can be accounted for by arbitrage, income changes, capital flows, or money movements.

<cut>

The specific signal that precipitates the crisis may be the failure of a bank or firm stretched too tight, the revelation of a swindle or defalcation by someone who sought to escape distress by dishonest means, or a fall in the price of the primary object of speculation as it, at first alone, is seen to be overpriced. In any case, the rush is on. Prices decline. Bankruptcies increase. Liquidation sometimes is orderly but may degenerate into panic as the realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable everyone to sell out at the top. The word for this state---again, not from Minsky---is revulsion. Revulsion against commodities or securities leads banks to cease lending on the collateral of such assets. In the early nineteenth century this condition was known as discredit. Overtrading, revulsion, discredit—all these terms have a musty, old-fashion flavor. They are imprecise, but they do convey a graphic picture.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[JNelson6563]

3. Good morning Marketeers!

So today's word is "revulsion" eh? haha

Lots of data out this week so it should be fun to watch it all play out. Showdown in the Senate too.

Great Toon Ozy. So true. Quite a feat though that the GOP has the world convinced of the opposite, that it's us Dems who would have such a thing with our "big gubberment" ideas. Framing the language and controlling the flow of imformation and disinformation and voila. Black is white, up is down.

I wonder how many people will die this day and if the Street will even notice?

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning! (hopefully)

Tim Wood and our friends in the Economic Issues forum speculate on an imminent popping of a bubble. Big bubble. The questions are: how will this happen? At what speed will this happen?

With the PPT on guard, I doubt we will see a minimum 25% decline in market value like we did in 1987. But then, we have been seeing the PPT getting short on strings to pull. The fact that the Dow dipped below 8000 in recent memory is testiment to that. So I suspect that the markets will step down as the PPT would prefer. Nothing pleases the powers-that-be like turning tragedy into promise as I am sure they will proclaim (once again) "there's value in the market" when valuations reach a decrepit point.

[ozymandius]

2. Has anyone seen this in the Economic Issues forum?

I am not trying to play the part of Chicken Little. I am curious as to the veracity of these issues. Could our bond and currency traders comment on this?

link to thread

Here's a snippet:

I am not saying that the economy of the globe will crash, rather that the financial system will crash. Argentina still has an economy, albeit a seriously altered one, but no financial industry to speak of...

this has to do with the
1)global price suppression of gold (an illegal activity which will come out due to 2 or more of the recently arrested FOREX criminal traders singing the real tune and naming names)
b) the crashing dollar due to the lack of foreign inflows....bear in mind that our 'economy' by which I mean the dollar reserve financial system that we have sold to the globe DEPENDS on 2.123 BILLION DOLLARS A DAY in new purchases of US financial paper BY FOREIGNERS.

Now, in case you had not noticed...and it is a bit esoteric...that inflow has ceased since August of 2003 having fallen below critical levels since the US invasion of Iraq. Recent geopolitical problems for the US are being blamed, but in reality the trend has been developing since the crash of the dot coms, and the subsequent FED actions including the pumping of consumer credit to try to 'reflate'.

3) also in case you had not noticed, the FED has been pumping the money supply like there is no tomorrow for the dollar. Unfortuneately for all of US/us, there is no tomorrow (in the long term sense -say months) for the dollar. But the FED is going to 'reflate or die'. Problem is that they will 'reflate and then die'.

[JNelson6563]

8. I don't think "chicken little", I see clear vision

I agree with the contents of this post. There is a gathering storm and the pieces of it are so large that they have been slowly rumbling toward the same direction for a long time now. They've been played down to where I liken it to the gubberment writing off UFOs as weather balloons.

I talk economy around here and came across a little pretend newspaper one of the kids put together for some game they were playing. haha It was a minature so no real articles. Large scribblings for headlines and little ones for content. Some things got real headings, like the classified columns (Freebies and Toys/Video Games). What caught my eye and I thought you all might get a kick out of was the "finacial section". There listed was "Dow" (scribblings after it-not real numbers but an arrow pointing down), Nasdaq (same content as DOW with down arrow), Gold--up arrow, the 10 yr. (my favorite that they actually retained and thought to include) and oil (arrow up). Hahahaha!! My devoted followers. :-) I didn't have the heart to chide them for leaving out that insightful S&P index. What a hoot!

The futures are looking bright and sunny this morning. Overseas markets faring pretty well. Could be less bloody than last week. And I don't care what they say, I remain steadfast in my faith in the gold values. Scandal or no scandal. Flight to quality and all that.

Julie

[ozymandius]

4. The dragon binges

China soon may be producing more than the world can take.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Companies around the world, it seems, have caught China fever. When the fever breaks, there could be hell to pay.

Building out operations in China, with its business-friendly environment and low-cost work force, is all the rage these days. Flip through the financial pages and you'll find that Toshiba plans on boosting its notebook production in China by 70 percent in the next half year, that Ford plans to spend over $1 billion on two new plants there, that $2.8 billion of Motorola's sales last year were made in China.

And this does not even take into account China's booming homegrown companies, which, thanks to cheap credit from state banks and intense rivalry between local governments, are stepping up production of everything from cars to cement.

Put it all together, according to Credit Suisse First Boston chief non-Japan Asia economist Dong Tao, and you have a classic overinvestment story. Tao reckons that China's steel-production capacity, already more than that of the United States and Japan combined, could double in three years. Ditto for China's mobile-phone production, which already accounted for 43 percent of sales globally in 2002. A swath of other industries -- from automakers to ethylene producers -- could see similar surges.

What's unclear is how the world is going to absorb all the capacity coming on line in China. Or, putting it another way: Who is going to buy all this stuff?

story

[ozymandius]

6. 'Market timing is systemic'

By Simon Targett

A majority of executives running pension schemes in the US think that the market timing abuses uncovered by regulators are "systemic", according to a report by Greenwich Associates.

In a survey of 131 funds, some 60 per cent said that improper trading - which is the subject of a major investigation by Eliot Spitzer, New York state's attorney general - was systemic to the US mutual fund industry. But for those funds with money managed by firms under investigation - 76 were surveyed - some 71 per cent considered the problem to be widespread across the industry. John Webster, managing director of Greenwich Associates, said: "When the problem surfaced, the prevailing view was that there were a few bad apples. But that's not how it's viewed any more."

He said: "People are very angry, and they want to see companies clean up their act. Some 54 per cent of funds viewed the problem as "very serious.

story

[ozymandius]

7. At last I must leave you Marketeers.

I will try to check in later today.

Try to relax.

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

9. Things looking pretty happy this morn!

Heading for a happy open. Hooray! Maybe it's because Bush's smashing success across the pond. I hear the Queen was just delighted with the er, renovations, of her property after Dubya's goon squad left. ;-) didn't some heavy shit go down between the Normans and the Saxons after just such an episode? haha (Answer: yes)

Preparing to make buckets of money today, jsut like the cheerleaders tell me I will. :hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

10. Oh, did he mess up her roses?

Actually, I'm thinking of the Beverly Hillbillies in England and Jethro....Still playing the game of expectations--since the protestors didn't destroy London, it wasn't as bad as hyped. Now, the government of Georgia changes with 100,000 in the street, but 200-700,000 is nothing in the Bush-Blair universe. Democracy in action.

Turkey Week is generally a happy one on Wall Street. What few traders are left in town are getting into the buying mood...

Dow 9,693.79 +65.26 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,918.16 +24.28 (+1.28%)
S&P 500 1,044.14 +8.85 (+0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205% +0.058

And speaking of buying...I'm off to do some of that lil thing myself!

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

and it appears that something strange is afoot - can't put my finger on it - but the major currencies have not dropped appreciably and yet the dollar has risen - something is definitely screwy here - have they found yet another way to jigger the books?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.16 Change +0.53 (+0.58%)

[JNelson6563]

13. Jigger-shmigger! Who cares? It's all GOOD!

and here's proof!


Dow 9,735.50 +106.97 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,928.51 +34.63 (+1.83%)
S&P 500 1,048.29 +13.00 (+1.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.203% +0.056


Those folks without jobs? Whiners! People without healthcare? More whiners. Questions regarding the counter-intuitive numbers put out so consistently? You just hate America. Don't like what we're doing in Iraq? You must love that homicidal maniac Saddam. Think geo-political events look grim for America? You're an obvious terrorist sympathizer.



Hope everybody's making a few pennies today! :hi:

Julie

[Timefortruth]

12. Ever feel like the market is the lotto?

I learned after the last crash just to stay the hell out and think coffee can buried in the yard and a safe investment choice. But this is maddness, how long can it continue?

Forever?

[Code_Name_D]

14. I figured it would shoot up this morning.

Both pork barrel bills now in congress are heading for pasage.

[54anickel]

15. I think they'll pull all they can for this to be a good week. Set that

holiday shopping mood. Sooner or later their bag of tricks will run out.

[mrsteve]

16. 12:45 - Yee-haw! Everybody's riding the bulls!

Big day today from the start. Hello to all!

Dow 9,729.13 +100.60 (+1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,926.98 +33.10 (+1.75%)
S&P 500 1,048.04 +12.75 (+1.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% +0.076

[mrsteve]

17. 1:40 - sideways at the top

Little movement in the last 3 hours, all sideways very near the highs for the day.

Dow 9,725.73 +97.20 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq 1,927.08 +33.20 (+1.75%)
S&P 500 1,047.90 +12.62 (+1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.217% +0.070

[mrsteve]

18. 3:30 - "Flat as a pancake"

LOL - that's how Yahoo Finance described the markets today, as they glide along at their highs. Provided nothing major happens in the next 30 minutes, it will be a very good day for the markets.

Dow 9,740.16 +111.63 (+1.16%)
Nasdaq 1,937.06 +43.18 (+2.28%)
S&P 500 1,050.41 +15.12 (+1.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% +0.080

[JNelson6563]

19. looks that way

3:44 and ridin' high, 'cept the 10yr. a bit of a slap to them:

Dow 9,731.64 +103.11 (+1.07%)
Nasdaq 1,939.38 +45.50 (+2.40%)
S&P 500 1,050.41 +15.13 (+1.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% +0.080


Julie

[mrsteve]

20. Closing numbers and Yahoo Finance happy blather

Dow 9,747.79 +119.26 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq 1,947.14 +53.26 (+2.81%)
S&P 500 1,052.08 +16.79 (+1.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% +0.080

Yahoo Finance Analysis:
"Close: With gains of 1.1-2.5%, today's session represented a rebound that retraced the entirety of last week's losses... The advance materialized on virtually no economic or earnings news, which was in stark contrast to the action witnessed over the past two weeks in which good economic and earnings announcements failed to produce a market rally... Accordingly, today's advance reflected stocks' underlying investment appeal and the market's tendency to use dips as buying opportunities, just as it has throughout its advance since March...
While historical trends have not necessarily been the best indicators for this year's market, the realization that the shortened Thanksgiving week is usually a winning one contributed to today's favorable sentiment... Providing further impetus to buy was the market's clearance of significant technical levels, which included the 50-day simple moving averages for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as the 20-day exponential moving average for the Nasdaq... The advance was broad-based, with the bulk of the sectors participating and the technology and biotech groups particularly strong...

Also contributing to the favorable bias were gains in the financial, drug, transportation, and utility groups... As a matter of fact, the only laggard of note was the gold sector, the weakness in which coincided with a drop in the price of gold to $391.50/oz (down $4.50) associated with the greenback's strengthening against the euro... Breadth figures were bullish, although disappointingly volume remained moderate at best... While some of the limited participation can be blamed on it being an abbreviated trading week, it would've been encouraging to receive some confirmation for today's move higher via higher-than-average volume totals..."

See everyone here in the Casino tomorrow!

[nolabels]

26. They always try to pump it up around turkey week,

I bet trading volume low, haven't been keeping track but that would be my guess. They want to keep up when it easy to do.

[Robbien]

21. Just read this theory on the Barrick turnaround last Friday

"Allow me to speculate on what really happened between Thursday and Friday to cause Barrick to do the embarrassing about-face.

"When Barrick's CFO went to New Orleans (presumably for a meeting on the Blanchard lawsuit, maybe with Barrick's own attorneys, maybe with both sets of attorneys, maybe a settlement conference, maybe a
strategy session with counsel), he was shown some specific evidence that Blanchard intends to use to prove its case in court.

"I surmise that this evidence must be some kind of iron-clad proof that Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase have indeed been manipulating the gold market. It would have to be some form of evidence that is incontrovertible and undeniable, where the probability of successfully challenging it is small -- like a letter, an e-mail, an
admission, a sworn statement by an insider witness, or possibly a paper trail.

"I can't imagine what it is, but that is the character it must have had to have produced such a dramatic change in Barrick. Sweating profusely and perhaps wrestling inside to control other involuntary bodily functions, the Barrick CFO hastily excuses himself and telephones Barrick Chairman Peter Munk, who is at that financial conference in London. They strategize and Munk agrees that Barrick has no more options and that its best choice from a business standpoint is to flip and go long.

"That is, the era of manipulation of the gold price is over and any further attempts are seen as a losing proposition. For the viability of its business, Barrick has no choice.


If this is true, the next couple of weeks will be interesting

[mrsteve]

22. Provocative indeed - do you have a link?

It would be interesting to see this article you quote in total.

[Robbien]

23. Sorry, but it is a paid subscription financial site

Harris capital management. So linking will not work. Here is a little more discussion from another paid subscription site:

We have maintained from the beginning that Barrick, the
huge short in the gold market -- and the huge
short in the silver market too -- was the agent and cover
for bullion bank and central bank suppression of the gold
price. Events seem to be supporting this interpretation
and to be suggesting great stress and even an upheaval in
the gold market. In any sort of disreputable collusion,
when one of the leading bad guys defects, the others are
probably in jeopardy as well.

The odds still may favor the bullion banks and the central
banks in the suppression of the gold price at least through
futures contract expiration this week. But the greater part
of the utility of the gold price suppression scheme has been
its surreptitiousness. As the Harris Capital Management
letter suggests, when people begin to realize that the gold
market has been rigged and WHY it has been rigged, the
confidence game that central bank management of the world
financial system has been may be in grave danger of failure.

[mrsteve]

24. Damn - wish I had the money to buy those silver futures two months ago

Things really could get ugly soon, if the gold market kicks the legs out from under the dollar.

[Robbien]

25. The gold futures closed at end of business today

Tomorrow should be a very interesting day in the metals market.