Poll: Dean tops Kerry in Bay State -- Dean leads by 9 in MA!

[Dems Will Win]

http://www.bostonherald.com/HiasysTools/PrinterFriendly.bg/www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/kerr11242003.htm


<snip>

Sen. John F. Kerry is facing a backyard beating at the hands of presidential primary nemesis Howard Dean, losing his own state by a staggering 9 points in a new Boston Herald poll.


Dean, who already stole the primary leads from a faltering Kerry in New Hampshire and Iowa, would pummel the hometown senator 33 percent to 24 percent if voting were held today.

Worse for Kerry, Dean leads here by riding the longtime senator's supposed core base - liberals, Democrats and older voters.

The fact that he can come into Massachusetts, John Kerry's home state, where Democrats are so familiar with the senator, and still have a 9-point lead really speaks to the strength of the Dean campaign and his core messages, said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

<snip>

They called it a "backyard beating". Kerry is a surprisingly weak candidate...

[Vikingking66]

1. holy crap!

I'm a MA Dean and I thought leading by 4 was amazing,
but a 9 point lead is insane.
Poor Kerry. He should get out before he really damages
his reputation.

[THUNDER HANDS]

2. I hope Kerry

Didn't plan on resigning from the Senate. Maybe 2008 or 2012 is his year. :(

[BayCityProgressive]

3. If Kerry

with all his experience and connections is losing to Dean in his own state, than I don't think he would ever make a good candidate and I actually like the guy. I think he is dull and boring though, I found Gore more exciting.

[Sean Reynolds]

4. Well look at the sample size....

SNIP:

The Herald poll of 424 probable Democratic primary voters, taken by RKM Research and Communications Wednesday through Friday, is the first to show Kerry outright losing his home state. It has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error.

Now I love Dean, but only 424 people? That is a small sample for such a large state. I'd of felt better if the sample size was over 1,000. But it's still a good sign.

[ozone_man]

5. I think its about the average sample size.

Supposedly, if you do the sampling well, 500 is enough. I think most of the polls that I've seen have been around this size.

I am amazed that Dean is leading in Mass. That's great!

[Dems Will Win]

6. I've run a lot of polls and 424 is a good sample for a state

If you structure any poll so that it reflects the demographics of the area you are polling, I've found that after 160 calls or so, you almost always have the placement of the candidates correct and the percentages don't even change much after that.

[mb7588a]

8. I don't buy the poll for a second.

Two similar polls, found here: http://wbz4.com/nhnews/NH--Kerry-Poll-en/resources_news_html

show them nearly neck and neck.

[truthisfreedom]

7. drudge is hyping a coming story about kerry's aids overheard in a bar

from drudge:

EXCLUSIVE: HIGH-LEVEL KERRY STAFFERS OVERHEARD PLOTTING IN IOWA HOTEL BAR: SENATOR TO RIDE MORE MOTORCYCLES, CULTIVATE 'PROTESTER' CREDENTIALS; DEAN CASH 'COMING FROM REPUBLICANS'... DEVELOPING...