STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY NOV 25...(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 25, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 426
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 347 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 38 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 247
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 731
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 24, 2003

Dow... 9,747.79 +119.26 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq... 1,947.14 +53.26 (+2.81%)
S&P 500.... 1,052.08 +16.80 (+1.62%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% +0.08 (+1.93%)
Gold future... 392.70 -4.50 (-1.13%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"NASDAQ Showing Technical Weakness"

If you watch any of the financial cable TV shows that are aired during the Thanksgiving Day holiday, you are sure to be exposed to a healthy portion of bullish sentiment. The market is going to continue to go up and everyone knows it. There will be a host of reasons why the “new bull market” will continue that will be buttressed by various economic data. There will be Wall Street analysts with stock tips aplenty, including recommendations to buy retailers, homebuilders and of course, technology companies. I’m expecting a festive atmosphere; similar to Thanksgiving of 2000, when CNBC had a band in the studio playing, “I Got the World on a String, Sitting on a Rainbow”. This was CNBC’s follow-up to the hit TV commercial that featured the song, the distinctive blue CNBC ticker, and relaxed people watching the ticker as they lounged by a pool or played golf. The band played the day after Thanksgiving of 2000, when in one-half day of trading; the NASDAQ was up 150 points to close at 2,954. Then as now, stocks seemed cheap to a very optimistic, active, and vulnerable public.

The general sentiment is that we are in a new bull market. We are not. Last October’s “bottom” will continue to be referred to on TV as “the mother of all bottoms”. In truth, we have just experienced the mother of all secondary corrections. This too shall soon pass. There have been a host of clear technical and fundamental descriptions why this is a secondary correction and we are still in a primary bear market. They include overvaluation, overtrading, overconfidence, more Wall Street chicanery, lack of quality new stock market leadership, and an unsustainable economic recovery. Although practically all of us including me hope for an economic recovery, the overvaluation and excessive speculation in the stock market results in stock values that are actually disconnected from underlying business fundamentals. This is true with or without an economic recovery.

There are several technical indications that this rally has probably run its course. The most impressive leaders of this the market rally have indicated probable tops in their charts, which will probably hold. Some key groups that have clearly topped include the Internet stocks, and the Chinese Internet stocks. Two of the less liquid homebuilding stocks have also taken on water – MI Schottenstein Homes Inc (MHO), and Orleans Home (OHB), proving that as with Internet stocks, a rising tide no longer lifts all boats.

In this article, I will describe:

1. Technical evidence comparing the trading volume during and after the 1929 primary market top to that of the 2000 top. This analysis suggests that the current rally is not a “new bull market”, but rather “a mother of a secondary correction”.

2. A NASDAQ chart indicating that the secondary bull correction in a primary bear market has probably ended.

3. Application of Victor Sperandeo’s “4-day Rule” to the NASDAQ chart, also indicating that the secondary bull correction in a primary bear market has probably ended.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm">Our Bubble Compared to Our Grandparent’s Bubble...

[teryang]

4. Couldn't agree more

<Although practically all of us including me hope for an economic recovery, the overvaluation and excessive speculation in the stock market results in stock values that are actually disconnected from underlying business fundamentals>

It is very hard to find a stock where the fundamentals don't look awful. If anyone knows of a such a stock, I'd like to hear about it.

[Yupster]

14. As a stockbroker,

I'd love to give you a list, but I'd risk being fired for giving advice over an internet chat room where I haven't done my due dilligence. Call your broker and see what he has.

[Maeve]

5. If you can't get the above link to work

Take the extra http:// out of the address in your browser--or click here:http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

One of the quirks of DU HTML that trips us all up at some time or another.

Thanks, Ozymandius, for starting this thread at a time when most of us still lay asnooze in our beds! And for highlighting that phrase about hoping we're all wrong...

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

2. Have a great day at the casino Marketeers!

I must get to work. I'll check in later if time (and my son) allows.

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

3. Good Morning Marketeers!

Looks like another bright dayon the Street. Overseas markets have had a good day and our futures are lookin' pretty bright....

More later...

Julie

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.63 Change +0.04 (+0.04%)

looks as though the dollar hinges upon the GDP numbers - and there is a regrouping on the euro - some are looking for it to slip below 1.17 (a support level)

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/11/25/rtr1159675.html

"The market was extremely long of euros going into the weekend which is why we saw such a sharp pull- back yesterday. My guess is the euro could break through support at $1.1730 if the U.S. numbers are good."

but there are others who seem to believe that the euro has a destiny

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031125/15/3g6q7.html

Intraday EUR/USD: Short-term toppish with the $1.1749 to $1.1680 zone being targeted next from where a rally in the euro should take place.

Week EUR/USD: Bullish, eyes the $1.21-$1.23 zone in the weeks to come.

guess it will all depend on how they jiggle the GDP prelims

Have a great day Marketeers!

[Maeve]

7. Today's calendar

At 8:30 we expect the revised GDP for the third quarter(expecting 7.3-7.6%, even better than initially reported). 10:00 brings the existing home sales (expected to decline slightly) and Consumer Confidence(expected to rise).

Another big batch of reports for tomorrow--see here: http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. GDP Grows at 8.2 Percent Pace in 3Q

http://www.starbanner.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031125/APF/311250661

The economy roared ahead at an astounding 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace in nearly two decades and a much stronger performance than previously thought. It raises hope that a long spell of lackluster business activity is finally over.

The revised gross domestic product (GDP), released by the Commerce Department Tuesday, was a full percentage point higher than the 7.2 percent growth rate estimated a month ago.

<snip>

The 8.2 percent growth rate - more than double the 3.3 percent pace registered in the second quarter - represented the best showing since the first quarter of 1984, when the economy surged at a 9 percent pace. Economists were predicting third-quarter GDP would be revised up, with estimates ranging from a 7.3 percent pace to an 8 percent pace.

(short news blurb)

gosh - 1984 .... hmmmmm

oh yeah, now I remember!

VooDoo Economics!!!!

[Maeve]

9. You know, I trust these numbers

About as far as I could comfortably spit a rat....

Sorry, but there are lies, damn lies and statsitics and I think we're into fuzzy math BIG TIME.

[JNelson6563]

10. mega-dittos!!

to make our GD spammer more at home. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

11. Your boyfriend? Heh, heh!

Some notes on the "fantastic" GDP

"Third-quarter growth was also boosted by a 6.4 percent pace of growth in consumer spending after growing at a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter. Consumer spending growth was originally reported as 6.6 percent.

Much of the strength in consumer spending in the third quarter was due to a 26.5 percent rate of growth in the sale of durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, and much of that came in sales of motor vehicles and parts.

Home sales also soared, with residential investment up at a 22.7 percent annual pace, compared with 6.6 percent in the second quarter."
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/25/news/economy/gdp/index.htm

[KoKo]

23. This little sentence in CNN Money's Report begs a question:

"Investment in equipment and software rose 18.4 percent, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 1998 and more than double the prior quarter's pace of 8.3 percent."

My reading of what we are doing in Iraq (besides bombing the hell of of it)is that we are bringing in Computer equipment to all the schools and rebuilding the "infrastructure." Since the computer equipment needs software and the military probably needs some software and server equipment, wouldn't that explain the "equipment and software" rise of 18.4%? Plus, given the amount of weapons we've depleted with all this bombing wouldn't we have to replace all of that meaning the defense industry is in a boom cycle?

A friend of mine's nephew is in the Army in Iraq and his job is to replace all the computer lines and install new ones as they are bombed out. He's been to all the major cities in Iraq working strictly on installing computer lines and new equipment.

We need to know how much of the GDP growth is companies getting a boost from War spending which would make the "recovery" very localized into just the favorite BFEE companies. Meaning the recovery would be in defense and tech specific to Iraq and the auto sales would be the "humvee's" being refitted with armour plating, plus the new ones on order that are being built to the new specifications.

[KoKo]

21. With that kind of "overheated" growth rate, Interest Rates need to go up!

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.............

[Barrett808]

16. Remember Poppy Bush's sudden unemployment dip in 1991?

Turned out, as I recall, that he cooked the books a bit to get re-elected.

Or am I completely misremembering that?

[zinsky]

17. Is It Healthy Growth or Cancerous Growth?

That should be the question that Democrats are asking about this economy.

Greenspan has had the pedal to the metal for three years now (after having it on the brake throughout the Clinton years) and it isn't surprising that GDP is growing. Interest rates are so friggin' low that banks are practically giving money away!

The spin that Dems need to put on it is that it is cancerous growth, it is unsustainable and the reason is that we are "eating the seed corn" by not investing in the future of this country with education, new infrastructure and new energy sources!!!

[JNelson6563]

25. Yes.

And Gore did address this somewhat in a speech a few months ago when talking about "false impressions" given us by Team Bush.

Greenspan has saved Bush by practically giving the $$ away.

Julie

[Maeve]

12. And with such cheerful news, we start...oops

Dow 9,744.83 -2.96 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,947.20 +0.06 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,051.14 -0.94 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.233% +0.006

[UpInArms]

13. seems that we are not the only ones

questioning the veracity of these reports


Dow 9,732.82 -14.97 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,942.75 -4.39 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,049.95 -2.13 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.229% +0.002

[Maeve]

15. 10:01 and we have bounce!

Dow 9,751.79 +4.00 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,951.86 +4.72 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,053.91 +1.83 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% -0.018

[Maeve]

19. "bounce" may be the word of the day...

Dow 9,740.38 -7.41 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,948.75 +1.61 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,051.43 -0.65 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% -0.016

[Maeve]

22. 11:28 numbers--above the water line

Dow 9,754.09 +6.30 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,950.88 +3.74 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,053.82 +1.74 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.200% -0.027

[Maeve]

18. Big bounce for Consumer Confidence, dip for Existing housing

Confidence up to 91.7 (from 81.1, expected was only 85-86)

Home sales down to 6.35M from 6.68M (expected was 6.5-6.53M)

[UpInArms]

20. guess all this "good" news was factored in yesterday

Dow 9,740.01 -7.78 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,947.74 +0.60 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,051.23 -0.85 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.203% -0.024

and the dollar took its good news in advance also?

Last trade 91.45 Change -0.14 (-0.15%)

[sandnsea]

24. Tumbled 7 pts to 112.9 in March 2000

We've gone from economically suicidal to depressed and that's GOOD NEWS!! Well, I guess it's better....

http://oldwww.roymorgan.com/polls/2000/cc03/

[JNelson6563]

26. fighting for air

12:34

Dow 9,749.20 +1.41 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,947.01 -0.13 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,052.95 +0.87 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% -0.030


I smell doubt in the fabulous numbers.

Julie

[mrsteve]

27. 1:06 - checking in with sideways numbers near the open levels

After a bit of low level rollercoastering both above and below the open level, we're now pretty much back to where we started.

Dow 9,748.61 +0.82 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,948.71 +1.57 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,053.19 +1.11 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% -0.039

Guess all the good news today was "already baked in". Ha!

[jamesinca]

28. So who is this group "Conference Board research organisation".

Shoppers in US 'plan to spend less at Christmas'
By Christopher Swann in Washington
Published: November 25 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: November 25 2003 4:00

US retailers should brace themselves for a lean holiday season as shoppers plan to cut back on Christmas spending, according to a report published yesterday by the Conference Board research organisation.


The report suggests the average household is expecting to spend just $455 (£267, €383) on gifts this year, compared with $483 last year.

Such belt-tightening, the Conference Board said, could trigger a 5 per cent dip in sales compared with 2002.

The last few months of the year are vital for retailers in the US, with many making more than half of their year's profits in the run-up to Christmas.

snip

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493468826&p=1012571727162

[Maeve]

29. Predictions about the holidays

Wal-Mart downgraded expectations for the holidays the other week and here's another story:
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/25/news/economy/holiday_shopping.reut/index.htm
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. holiday shopping season may not live up to economists' robust expectations, a survey out Tuesday suggested, with more Americans saying they would cut spending from last year's already weak levels.
A surprisingly pessimistic survey from the Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association said consumers are cautious because of lingering concern about the economy and worries about household debt.
The Consumer Federation of America, in conjunction with Credit Union National Association, released the fourth annual survey on holiday spending habits. CNNfn's Louise Schiavone reports.
Most private-sector economists have predicted strong U.S. holiday spending, fueled by leftover cash from summer tax cuts and renewed confidence in the economic recovery.
But 34 percent of consumers surveyed said they would spend less during the holidays than they did in 2002, a big jump from the 21 percent who said so last year. The survey of 1,017 adults was conducted from Nov. 13 to Nov. 16

:shrug:

[jamesinca]

32. Thanks

I don't understand. Some places are saying that things are going just swell. Other places are saying it is not so swell. I don't think it is going very nifty or dandy based on my impression of the Christmas shopping cataloges being mailed out earlier. It seemed like they were at least. To me that was fear in the retailers mind. States are running in the red, George Bush in in the White House. These are all unscientific things, but to me they add up to a general direction that is not a good one for any economy.

[mrsteve]

30. 1:45 - Sliding below the water

Dow 9,741.50 -6.29 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,946.52 -0.62 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,052.55 +0.48 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.165% -0.062

Hmm..maybe those Christmas reports are the thing holding the market down today. After all, Christmas is 30 - 40% of most retailer's business for the whole year, so 5 - 8% of off of that is painful.

[mrsteve]

31. According to Yahoo Finance - yep, it's already "baked in"

Yahoo Finance Analysis:
"2:00PM: Little change since the last update, or much of the day, for that matter... As they have for the entirety of the session, the major averages are not doing much of anything today and are vacillating around the flat line...
While much of this morning's strong economic data, including the preliminary Q3 GDP at 8.2% (consensus 7.6%), was thought to have already been priced into the market, it's contributing to today's slightly positive bias and is providing support for the market in today's going...
The strong economic data also speaks to the underlying long-term bullishness of stocks, given the strong economic growth, mild inflation, the Fed's accommodative policy, and historically-low interest rates... With respect to the latter, the 10-year note is currently up +16/32, bringing its yield down to 4.17%..."

Although money is apparently flowing into the 10 year - what do they know that we don't?

[Maeve]

33. I prefer the phrase "you're soaking in it"

Someone is getting all happy again...
Dow 9,767.12 +19.33 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,950.01 +2.87 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,055.18 +3.11 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.045

[mrsteve]

34. 3:25 - big rise in the last 90 minutes

Looks like the last hour is quite valuable today.

Dow 9,786.75 +38.96 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,953.46 +6.32 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,057.20 +5.13 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% -0.041

[mrsteve]

35. And Yahoo Finance is all smiles

"buyers stepped out of the woodwork" - what are they, termites?

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"3:00PM: With the major averages having held up quite well on the heels of yesterday's impressive session, buyers have stepped out of the woodwork, catapulting the major averages to their best levels of the day... In the Dow, 20 of its 30 components are in the green, with leaders to the upside including Caterpillar (CAT 75.07 +1.73), Alcoa (AA 32.29 +0.61), and DuPont (DD 40.43 +0.47)... CAT, for its part, is higher in sympathy with Deere (DE 61.47 +1.27), which beat the consensus by $0.10 with its earnings of $0.27...
Biggest laggards in the Dow are Boeing (BA 38.31 -0.58), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 50.63 -0.85), and Merck (MRK 41.21 -0.88)... JNJ and MRK are weak on the heels of the Senate's passage of the Medicare reform bill, which has left the bulk of the drug companies struggling in today's session..."

[Maeve]

36. And now for some quick profits

Dow 9,775.49 +27.70 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,950.19 +3.05 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,056.08 +4.00 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% -0.041

[Maeve]

37. And finally

Dow 9,763.94 +16.15 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,943.04 -4.10 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,053.89 +1.81 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% -0.041

[JNelson6563]

38. pretty flat for absoluely fabulous numbers

wouldn't ou agree? ;-)

See you in the AM

Julie