Iraq Exit Plan: New Obstacles

[radfringe]

Iraq Exit Plan: New Obstacles
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/29/international/middleeast/29DIPL.html
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN -- Published: November 29, 2003

WASHINGTON, Nov. 28 — Two weeks ago, the Bush administration settled on an "exit strategy" for Iraq in which the United States committed itself to establishing self-rule there by next summer — well ahead of its previous schedule and just as the American presidential election season will be getting under way.

But the administration's initial plan for that transfer of authority has fallen apart, raising doubts about whether the June 30 deadline for ending the American occupation authority in Baghdad is still feasible.

At stake is whether the administration can reconcile President Bush's desire for a speedy transfer of sovereignty to a friendly Iraqi government next year, with the need to have some sort of electoral process to ensure that government's validity in the eyes of Iraqis and the rest of the world.

The "process," agreed upon two weeks ago, amounted to less than an election. Instead, it was an elaborate arrangement to hold caucuses throughout Iraq and give the Iraqi Governing Council considerable oversight.

The administration's quandary sharpened this week when Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's senior Shiite cleric, laid down his own definition of a legitimate government. Nothing less than an election was acceptable, he declared — a demand the United States and the Governing Council are now having to weigh.

----snip---

"If we turn things over next July 1 to whatever slapdash conglomeration that is out there — let's say the Governing Council plus some others, which is what they want — you could have a civil war in Iraq come next November," an administration official said.

---snip---

"It would be a disaster to have an election whose legitimacy was contested," said Noah Feldman, an assistant professor of law at New York University, who was a constitutional law adviser to Mr. Bremer earlier this year.

"Nobody wants Palm Beach County in Baghdad," Mr. Feldman added. "Historical experience also suggests that quick elections under postwar conditions elect people not dedicated to democratization. Simply put, if you move too fast, the wrong people could get elected."

Suddenly, earlier this month, that view shifted at the most senior levels of the administration in Washington. Mr. Bremer was summoned back for consultations, and a plan was worked out with the Iraqi Governing Council for what he called "a transparent, participatory democratic process" to choose a government.

"It was a document that looked like some treaty between the United States and the Indians in 1882," said Rami G. Khouri, executive editor of The Daily Star in Beirut. "To think they put this thing together in a couple of White House meetings with everyone in a panic mode, it's just humiliating."

Not only was that plan short of an election. But administration officials acknowledge that the Iraqi Governing Council is itself in some disarray.

[opihimoimoi]

1. LOL, the administration should be looking in the mirror before

describing the Governing Council as in disarray

[Barrett808]

2. "It's just humiliating."

"To think they put this thing together in a couple of White House meetings with everyone in a panic mode, it's just humiliating."

Straight to the point. This "slapdash conglomeration" is doomed to fail. Chalabi himself put it bluntly:

"The whole thing was set up so President Bush could come to the airport in October for a ceremony to congratulate the new Iraqi government. When you work backwards from that, you understand the dates the Americans were insisting on."

Then we have this:

"If we turn things over next July 1 to whatever slapdash conglomeration that is out there — let's say the Governing Council plus some others, which is what they want — you could have a civil war in Iraq come next November."

This is the first story I've seen that seriously mentions civil war as a possible outcome. Does anybody have confidence that the Bush mob is capable to averting that disaster?

[opihimoimoi]

3. To them, Force is EVERYTHING.

They will attempt force to keep the Iraqis in line.

[VolcanoJen]

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[goforit]

6. Karl Rove and Chenny messing up royally!!!!!!!!

Oh well!!!!!!!!

[kskiska]

7. "It would be a disaster to have an election whose legitimacy was contested

Yeah, wouldn't it.

[Just Me]

8. Only One Way OUT,...

,...completely against the grain that this freakin' administration is built upon,...BUT,...they have to enroll the people. Instead of their "spoiled" bent upon "privatization" (the only fantasy that they know),...they HAVE GOT TO incorporate every citizen, with pay, in building a country. TOP DOWN building has NO FOUNDATION. Without the investment in a foundation,...all will crumble. That is common sense, for crying out loud!!!

These spoiled without wherewithall freakin' HOs are gonna screw up everything. They have no skill whatsoever in dealing about humanity. I hate them,...I wield my hatred so sparingly and carefully,...but, I do hate these spoiled freakin brats who have no clue about what it is to "make" this world. They have NO idea,...about what they do. Their arrogance will recycle to their souls. Just as it has before.