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My days as an international observer in Venezuela-- my 7th note (I think)
from the front. (Some of these have been picked up on
www.venezuelanalysis.com, an invaluable source of information about what is
happening.)
After unofficially observing part of the first day's signature
campaign to recall Hugo Chavez, on Saturday I joined about 50 others in a
group of official observers. Our group (which includes Italian and Spanish
politicians, European journalists, Latin American activists and
legislators) is hustled into a bus and several vans, and we go off on a
mystery trip to locations selected by the National Electoral Commission.
After about an hour's ride, we were disgorged somewhere in the state of
Vargas. As we approached the signature table (located in a barrio) , we
were cheered and chanted at by about 20 Chavists (many redshirted) to the
right of the tables. To the left of the tables, there were around 50 happy,
singing people accompanied by loud music coming from a nearby bar. It was a
bit like a party. Even though language-challenged, it soon became clear to
me from the 'yo no soy chavista' sung by this 2nd group that the
positioning around the table was no accident. At the tables themselves,
though, only two of the tables were occupied by someone who wanted to sign,
and there was no queue. One of military men there to protect the process
indicated that it was a bit busier there yesterday but not much more so. As
we left, the crowd of anti-chavists dissipated.
At our second location in Vargas, we saw people come to the tables
with a narrow strip of paper filled out on one side. After they signed the
forms, the opposition person taking signatures signed the other side of the
paper. This was a frequent pattern--- except that older people coming to
the tables did not bring a slip. (One might speculate that this latter
group did not need to bring proof to their employers that they had signed).
There were 5 tables. It was quiet, with one or two signing when we arrived,
but shortly after, a truck unloaded a number of people. I begin to wonder
at this point whether the presence of 50 international observers is
attracting opposition displays. In general, the atmosphere was not
antagonistic-- much like between opposition scrutineers in an election at
home. Certainly, people on both sides seem to be happy to see us.
At our third location in Vargas, there is no one signing up at
all--- although the crowd arrives soon after. A bit like a mariachi band
following us. We pass another site on the road-- one person signing, and we
don't stop. Our fourth stop has 5 places for signing up. 3 are occupied,
with people getting white slips to prove they have signed. It is very
quiet. I start to wonder--- how long before the singers arrive? In fact, we
get away before they arrive. I feel a certain sense of loss. On the bus, a
Haitian in the delegation notes that he has spoken with a member of Bandera
Roja, the Marxist-Leninist group allied with the opposition. He notes that
the explanation offered by the BR person is that they oppose Chavez because
he is producing a war of class against class. So much for the
Marxist-Leninists.
The 5th stop in Vargas is at Catia del Mar. I notice very careful
work by the signature collector over whose shoulder I peer. She rejects
wrong identification, makes people sign several times (crossing out
errors). Very conscientious-- perhaps because of our presence. But, it does
make me wonder why this is the first time I've seen crossed-out lines--- is
this the only place that people are making errors? There are 4 tables here
but not much activity. Our stay is short. No mariachi band here either. In
fact, our stays are getting shorter. Is it because we're hungrier (or that
the CNE organisers are)? It's 1:52 now and we've been going since 9 am.
After lunch, we go to centres in Caracas. Our first stop is in
Sucre near St. Mary's University. This is definitely a different class of
people here. People here are well-dressed and look at us very
antagonistically. (Someone comments, who says you are international
observers!) There's an orderly line-up of about 50 there, and I suspect
fraud is unlikely here. A very short stay. We go from there to a closeby
site near Metropolitan University. Also looks like a wealthy area, with
very nice high-rises near these tables. Here we are told that they have no
more papers, that their signature forms for the 4 days have been exhausted
by 4:30 the 2nd day. They had received 368 papers (with 10 lines each).
This is their message to the international observers--- the CNE has not
given us enough! Is this possible? Has there been a miscalculation? The CNE
gives out sheets equal to 66% of registered voters in each area (and does
so at the rate of 25% per day--- although it is possible to request more in
the early days if they are exhausted quickly). Is the problem that in a
heavy opposition area more than 66% would come to sign against Chavez. Yes,
possible-- the hatred is high here. In that case, the CNE rule is biased
against heavily skewed areas. On the other hand, people can sign anywhere
against Chavez! So, a shortage of papers can show up anywhere the
opposition wants--- if it wants. Does this suggest what the opposition's
strategy will be--- to claim on the last day that there are many people who
could not sign? We note that those who come to this location to sign are
being directed to other centres in the area.
At the next site in this area, one also characterised by
high-rises (but not as nice on the outside), we find that they were given
340 sheets and have 140 left. (We are learning to focus on numbers and not
on how well people sign their names.) I ask how many of the 200 were used
the first day and how many used the 2nd day. I am told 95 the first day and
52 the 2nd (about the ratio of the two days that seems characteristic). Um,
but that doesn't add up! What about the other sheets (53, for the
numerically-challenged)? Oh, those are for the itinerant forms. Huh? Yes,
those are the ones taken out on the street. Are these taken with
representatives of the pro-government parties overseeing this? Yes,
generally. Generally? What prevents fraud? (The basic justification for the
itinerant sheets is the existence of the infirm at home and people in
hospitals.) I have my translator find the representative of the government
party there. Is this true that itinerant forms go out without any
representative of the chavists? Yes, she answers--- she tries to go with as
many as possible but can't always. But, she trusts them--- they've been so
correct in everything else. At 6pm, a group of chavists on motorcycles
arrives to check the forms before they are handed in. Too late, I think.
This point about the itinerant sheets is critical as more and more reports
have come in about people in hospitals pressured to sign.
Day 3 (Sunday) begins and we ride off to Miranda State (about 45
minutes). Nothing happening at the first site. A few people sitting around.
Maybe it's too early (9:30) on a Sunday morning. No, we don't get out of
the buses; we are told that they are closed. They finished their sheets.
(Are more coming or did they use all 100%? Not clear.) We go to a 2nd
location. There are 4 tables, all occupied, and a queue of 5 people. Here,
the opposition people tell us that out of the 200 papers assigned for the 4
days they used 90 sheets the first day and 69 the second. The chavist
representative present indicates that there were 850 signatures the first
day and 545 the second. It's hard to understand the discrepancies for the
2nd day-- if there are no errors, 90 sheets would suggest a minimum of 891
signatures; and 69 sheets, a minimum of 681 signatures. (Maybe there were
lots of errors on Saturday.) We learn, too, that 36 sheets have been set
aside for itinerant (9 per day). Hmm. 36 sheets out of 200--- 18%; quite a
few sick people here.
We go off to a 3rd centre. There are 5 tables, 3 are occupied, and
there is no queue. We learn that 67 papers were used the first day (642
signatures) and 38 (358) the second; this is out of a total of 238 assigned
for the 4 days.Here, we get to see the Sumate card in use. People are given
the Sumate card (the one which says they have chose the peaceful route out
of the crisis of Venezuela), their fingerprint is placed on the spot for
stamping it and they are given a sticker ('YA firme') which they can put on
the card. I see several younger people take the card and get it stamped. (I
get my own card and YA firme sticker--- one for the scrapbook.)
International observers are incensed by the use of these cards which are
being demanded by employers, so we sign a denunciation for presentation to
the CNE.
Our next centre (still in Miranda--- an opposition stronghold) is
La Casona, an upscale pink-bricked shopping mall. Here they tell us
immediately that their papers are finished. They had 200 for the 4 days.
150 went the first day and the rest the 2nd day by 4:00.(There's a bit of a
discrepancy because they tell us they used 1319 the first day and the rest
(681), the second; again, the numbers don't quite add up--- how do you get
681 signatures on 50 sheets of 10 lines each?) They say they are not
entirely finished because they are waiting for 2 itinerants to return. They
are complaining that the CNE made a mistake and didn't give them enough---
everyone here wants to sign and we only got 66%, we are told. Still, the
fact that people can sign anywhere and that this is a shopping mall may
explain why these are exhausted. Those who come here are being directed to
other centres in the area (although the opposition coordinator says these
other centres will soon be exhausted, too). Here as elsewhere in Miranda,
it is very hard to find the chavist scrutineers--- they are vastly
outnumbered. One itinerant returns while we are there, and there is a
massive battle because the chavist who accompanied him has challenged 4
names. How many signed up on sheets of itinerants here? 350 (and that is
before counting the sheets of the two itinerants who had been out). So, at
least 17.5% of the total. Must be an epidemic.
Next centre in Miranda is Plaza Bolivar. Again, the key questions
become numbers. The opposition says they are supposed to get 198 sheets but
they were only given 150, that they had used these up (not counting what
the itinerants were doing) Further, they won't get any more. When it is
pointed out that 150 was 3/4 of their total and that they would be entitled
to 50 more tomorrow, a furious argument breaks out between representatives,
observers, etc. It's all happening very fast, and I look from face to face.
I miss the subtitles. We leave shortly after it is established that they
can get 50 more.
I decide to pass on the afternoon trip. The pattern is clear, and
I am more interested in learning about the charges of fraud that are
emerging from the government side (something you don't get on the bus or at
the signature tables). In fact, I have concluded that this business of
being an international observer is a bit like seeing through a glass
darkly--- we see only appearances and not what is actually happening. How
many people are signing several times at different places? How many forged
identifications? How many sheets are being slipped in when no one is
looking? We can have suspicions that something is not quite right, and we
can identify specific abuses (as with the use of the Sumate cards and the
problem of unregulated itinerants), but there is absolutely no way that it
is possible for us to have any idea of the scope of problems at all. This
is something to remember when you hear of representatives from the Carter
Center or other observer bodies talk about how smoothly and properly this
process is going. I return and turn on the TV and see a person from the
Carter Center (from California) say exactly this--- it is all going very well.
Incredible stories of fraud now on TV. I'll pass these on in the
next note. There have been confrontations and tables shut. The border with
Colombia shut at places because of fraud at border areas.
in solidarity,
michael
---------------------
Michael A. Lebowitz
Professor Emeritus
Economics Department
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6
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