STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 6

[ozymandius]

Friday October 6, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 838 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2109 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1815 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1776
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 5, 2006

Dow... 11,866.69 +16.08 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq... 2,306.34 +15.39 (+0.67%)
S&P 500... 1,353.22 +3.00 (+0.22%)
Gold future... 575.50 +8.80 (+1.55%)
30-Year Bond 4.76% +0.04 (+0.85%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.61% +0.04 (+0.94%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

7 DOW DOGS

Although the Dow is hitting all time highs in nominal dollar terms, not all of the 30 Dow stocks are in bull markets. The bull market is largely being led by the financial stocks within the 30 Dow Stocks. Some key Dow stocks are in long term technical peril in spite of a rally in the index to all time highs. Some, such as Alcoa are also in short term technical peril.

Below is a 5 year weekly chart of Alcoa. Alcoa topped at the end of 2003 before correcting from a high of about 38 all the way down to 22 in early October 2005. Alcoa then enjoyed a sharp rally almost back to its old high, but it ran out of gas at 36 in June of 2006. Since then, while the market has rallied, Alcoa has been in a fairly consistent downtrend. This stock is an early reporter of their earnings, and given the level of upside generated by upside earnings reports, this is not a stock to “fool with” at this time.

-cut-

With the rip-roaring rally enjoyed by General Motors since early 2006, it’s hard to believe that this stock is in the throws of a vicious bear market. The 5-year, and long-term charts make this observation more apparent. The publicity on which this stock is trading is typical of an overheated market. As I penned here a couple of years ago, auto stocks have, for the most part, always been heartbreakers to long term investors. Personally, I don’t think that Chinese manufacturers are going to have any difficulty figuring out the secret of the Chevy Cavalier and competing with GM. The key technical level for GM is 35. Once the secular bear market asserts itself again, GM and its balance sheet and its pension obligations are going to be vulnerable.

-cut-

Similarly Microsoft is a Dow Industrial stock that previously enjoyed the technology stock market bubble. It is now at a level where further advances would represent a successful climbing of the stock market bubble. While this could happen, current precedent suggests it is unlikely. Former technology darlings Amazon and Yahoo have thus far failed to scale this mountain. While E-bay and Apple did scale the tech bubble and exceed their former highs, unlike Microsoft, these companies were agile and dynamic. Microsoft is a mature company and it is unlikely that it can produce the excitement it did in the past, even in today’s market.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

He goes on to discuss Elliot Wave theory.

[acmejack]

10. And he can't spell throes?

[54anickel]

30. Autumn Chills the Goldilocks Economy

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=58869

snip>

The September 28, 2006 release of Q2 2006 GDP and national economic data has confirmed more skeptical outlooks and spurred hardened optimists to new levels of creativity. Consensus estimates from private sector economists of 2.8% GDP growth and advanced estimates of 2.9% growth were disappointed as the Commerce Department announced actual growth of 2.6%. The Fed-preferred price index for personal consumption expenditure- excluding food and energy- increased 2.9% in Q2 down from 3.0% in Q1. Thus, our present goldilocks economy most recently displayed a 3% drop in the rate of price increase and a 53% decline- quarter over quarter- in GDP growth. This must be why indexes are soaring and the soft landing, benign inflation environment expectation has become dominant! What of corporate profits, long a bright spot in our economy?

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $22.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $175.6 billion in the first quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments)--the internal funds available to corporations for investment--increased $1.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $125.3 billion in the first.(2)

It is fair to say that the corporate profit picture is defined by deceleration in Q2. This was particularly true for non-financial corporations that underwent a rather profound reversal of profit fortunes across the quarter. Reported domestic profits for non-financial corporations dropped by $32.8 billion in Q2 on the heels of a strong $94.5 billion increase in Q1. The profit picture, while still a relative strong spot in the economy, is less hot than it has been. The most recent data, like the first cold winds of autumn, are a reminder that winter is approaching. Stagnant earnings, pressured private consumption, decelerating profit growth and robust price inflation are showing up in the macro data.

So we are left to ponder a widely popular consensus on the economy that is influencing equity performance. It runs as follows: eureka! The Fed has stopped tightening and the economy is still growing well and highly profitably. Of course growth and profitability are still in respectable shape- particularly the later. However, they have remarkably cooled of late. Much like rate increases. When rate increases slow we celebrate the end of inflation risk, despite the price change metrics reported. When GDP and profit numbers slow, we refocus on their strength in long run, global comparisons. Thus, the goldilocks consensus is sustained. The economy is not too hot, not too slow and just right!

Remember the Goldilocks story? Cool days and warm porridge lure Goldi into the bears’ house. There are two endings to the fairly tale. In the friendly version she wakes and flees in terror. In the harsher version she is eaten by the bears. Either way, advocates of the goldilocks economy may have much to learn from the fable they have invoked. Cooler data may be driving them to follow in goldilocks’ footsteps. It might be just right now, but there is trouble lurking in the near future! After all, the bears return in all the versions of the story.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports

8:30 AM Average Workweek Sep
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Sep
Briefing Forecast 115K
Market Expects 120K
Prior 128K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Sep
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.7%
Prior 4.7%

3:00 PM Consumer Credit Aug
Briefing Forecast $10.0B
Market Expects $5.5B
Prior $5.5B

[UpInArms]

14. 8:30 reports: GAAAA!!! Payrolls rise 51k - talk about MEASLEY!!!

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY TO 33.8 HOURS

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.2%

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. FACTORY JOBS DOWN 19,000; RETAIL DOWN 12,000

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. CONSTRUCTION JOBS UP 8,000, REAL-ESTATE JOBS FLAT

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.6% VS 4.7% IN AUG.

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP REV 188,000 VS 128,000 PREV

8:30 AM ET 10/6/06 U.S. SEPT. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 51,000 VS 123,000 EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

16. U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls up 51,000, lowest since Katrina

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5580C0A6%2DF15F%2D4D9E%2DB87E%2D76157C2B3347%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Job growth decelerated to its slowest pace since the hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast last year, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 51,000 in September lower than the 123,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. But the separate household survey showed more strength. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.6% in September from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.7%. In addition, there were 62,000 more jobs created in July and August that previously estimated. Average hourly earnings increased 4cents, or 0.2% to $16.84. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 4.0% in the past year. The average workweek held steady at 33.8 hours, in line with expectations.

[Nimrod2005]

24. Miserable crap...I hope Howard Dean does an ad talking about

the stupid so called booming economy. And you know, they are all $6.12/hr positions.

[UpInArms]

36. Bush calls Sept. jobs report 'good news'

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6EF9AEFC%2D36B3%2D404F%2DBDE3%2DF992F432273F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The September unemployment report was "good news" and a sign that the U.S. economy remains strong, President Bush said Friday. "The national unemployment rate is down to 4.6%, we have added 6.6 million new jobs since August 2003. Wages are going up and energy prices are falling," Bush told reporters in a brief statement after meeting small business owners. "I'm pleased with the economic progress we're making," Bush said.

[Nimrod2005]

40. Dummy lying bastard....KO needs another commentary!!!

Or Franken's book the lying liers...etc.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls under $60, investors doubt OPEC

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell below $60 on Friday as investors doubted OPEC's resolve to carry out supply cuts and focused instead on brimming fuel stockpiles in top consumer the United States.

A senior OPEC delegate told Reuters on Thursday of OPEC plans to remove 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from oversupplied markets as soon as possible.

"It is a big surprise to the market that OPEC has not been prepared to formally announce the decision to cut," said Frederic Lasserre, head of commodity research at SG CIB Commodities.

"It looks like it may take some time for OPEC to decide how to allocate this cut and that is bearish, not bullish."

more

[ozymandius]

4. What's Next for Oil Prices?

Has crude oil found a safety net?

After surging to an all-time closing high of some $77 a barrel in mid-July, the front-month contract for light, sweet crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange took a header. A calmer-than-expected hurricane season, a temporary halt to the ratcheting-up of tensions between Iran and the West, the end of summer driving season, a significant new oil discovery in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and a host of other factors conspired to push oil over the edge, and it dived more than 23% to a seven-month low this week of less than $59.

Analysts who had once briefly felt free to discuss openly, without fear of mockery, the possibility of $100-a-barrel oil -- a level that would have topped oil's inflation-adjusted record high of $98.58 set in April 1980 -- were suddenly talking about the chances of oil falling to $30 or less.

-cut-

The question is: Will we see another price record? The answer is no. And predictions of $100 per barrel are unfounded. Market fundamentals do not support such a price. A military strike against Iran is unlikely, though some form of an embargo is possible. Still, the impact of such an embargo would be limited. Oil prices might spike on the news of the embargo. But they will retreat quickly as traders realize its impact is minimal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116007411626183972.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[ozymandius]

8. Conspiracy Theories Abound as Oil Prices Fluctuate

In mid-May with gasoline prices at $2.95 a gallon and rising, 15 percent of Americans listed high fuel prices as their top concern, outstripping terrorism. And much of the public seemed ready to vent its wrath on President Bush and the Republican-led Congress.

By early September, though, with the nationwide average at $2.73 a gallon and falling, only 5 percent of those polled said that the price of gas was the single most important issue, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Since then, the price of gasoline has fallen even further, now down about 70 cents a gallon from its peak in August -- with only a month before the elections.

Coincidence?

-cut-

But politics have always flowed with oil. Here are some of the leading theories, and some possible explanations, for what is happening in the volatile oil markets.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/05/AR2006100501907.html

lots to say about "Bandar Bush"

[UpInArms]

29. Nov Crude @ $59.60 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $6.28 mln btus

10:12 AM ET 10/6/06 NOV. CRUDE FALLS 43 CENTS TO $59.60/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:12 AM ET 10/6/06 NOV. NATURAL GAS DOWN 2.8 CENTS, OR 0.4%, AT $6.28/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

46. OT yet related to oil - The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gu

The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=NAZ20061001&articleId=3361

Editor's note

We bring to the attention of our readers, this carefully documented review of the ongoing naval build-up and deployment of coalition forces in the Middle East.

The article examines the geopolitics behind this military deployment and its relationship to "the Battle for Oil".

snip>


The naval buildup is coordinated with the planned air attacks. The planning of the aerial bombings of Iran started in mid-2004, pursuant to the formulation of CONPLAN 8022 in early 2004. In May 2004, National Security Presidential Directive NSPD 35 entitled Nuclear Weapons Deployment Authorization was issued. While its contents remains classified, the presumption is that NSPD 35 pertains to the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Middle East war theater in compliance with CONPLAN 8022.

These war plans must be taken very seriously.

The World is at the crossroads of the most serious crisis in modern history. The US has embarked on a military adventure, "a long war", which threatens the future of humanity.

In the weeks ahead, it is essential that citizens' movements around the world act consistently to confront their respective governments and reverse and dismantle this military agenda.

What is needed is to break the conspiracy of silence, expose the media lies and distortions, confront the criminal nature of the US Administration and of those governments which support it, its war agenda as well as its so-called "Homeland Security agenda" which has already defined the contours of a police State.

It is essential to bring the US war project to the forefront of political debate, particularly in North America and Western Europe. Political and military leaders who are opposed to the war must take a firm stance, from within their respective institutions. Citizens must take a stance individually and collectively against war.

more...



Edit to add this video link on the site - Polical Satire: BUSH's REAL STATE OF THE UNION
http://globalresearch.ca/audiovideo/presaddress1.wmv

[ozymandius]

5. Wal-Mart rolls out $4 drugs

Generic prescription drugs at $4 for a month’s supply scored a hit in Tampa, so Wal-Mart decided to open the program statewide starting today instead of next year.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. expects to offer its prescription-drug discounts in most states this year after expanding the low-cost program from a test market to all of Florida, ahead of schedule.

-cut-

But customer demand was strong — Wal-Mart said it filled 36,000 new prescriptions within 10 days of the Sept. 21 launch of the program in the Tampa Bay area — prompting Florida officials to ask the company to accelerate the program. Executives announced the statewide rollout at a news conference Thursday in Orlando with Gov. Jeb Bush.

-cut-

Walgreens Co., one of the nation’s biggest drug store chains, will not cut prices. Spokesman Michael Polzin said 95 percent of Walgreens customers have prescription insurance, and the Deerfield, Ill.-based chain has seen no significant effect on its Tampa pharmacies from Wal-Mart’s launch there.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061006/NEWS01/61006001/1075

[Nimrod2005]

25. I am happy to see, I hope Target follows soon.....This will help

many many people, poor people and seniors.

[ozymandius]

6. Steelworkers go on strike at 16 Goodyear plants

AKRON, Ohio -- The United Steelworkers of America went on strike yesterday against Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., saying the company is not offering a fair and equitable contract.

The union, which represents about 13,000 hourly workers at 12 Goodyear plants in the United States, last went on strike against the Akron tiremaker for 19 days in 1997. The union also staged a four-hour walkout in 1994.

Also affected are an estimated 2,000 workers at four Goodyear plants in Canada. Pickets were being set up in front of Goodyear's corporate headquarters.

Goodyear said it is implementing contingency plans and is willing to continue bargaining.

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/10/06/steelworkers_go_on_strike_at_16_goodyear_plants/

[Jose Diablo]

52. Population explodes

as the price of rubbers go through the roof.

[ozymandius]

7. Ghosn's U.S. prospects fading

DETROIT Carlos Ghosn of Renault appears to have missed his chance to fashion a global alliance that can mount a formidable challenge to Toyota, and he might need to wait years for another opportunity.

Ghosn, who heads the automakers Nissan and Renault, has made it clear that he wants to add a North American partner. But after negotiations with General Motors fell apart Wednesday, the only other logical candidate to join Ghosn's alliance, Ford Motor, is no longer eager to bring him aboard.

Ford's chairman, William Clay Ford Jr., attempted to hire Ghosn as chief executive last year and called Ghosn during the summer to get next in line if things did not work out with GM. Since then, Ford has named a new chief executive, the former Boeing executive Alan Mulally, and now a person with knowledge of Ford's plans said the company had lost interest in pursuing an alliance.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/05/business/ford.php

[Eugene]

45. Kerkorian Aide York Resigns From GM Board After Alliance Fails

Kerkorian Aide York Resigns From GM Board After Alliance Fails

By Doron Levin and Jeff Green

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Jerome York, an aide to billionaire investor
Kirk Kerkorian, resigned from General Motors Corp.'s board after the
automaker failed to support Kerkorian's proposal for an alliance with
Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co.

The resignation of York, 68, was disclosed today in a U.S. regulatory
filing by Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. that noted the automaker's
rejection of the alliance. Tracinda also said it decided not to buy
additional shares of GM.

The departure comes two days after directors at GM, the world's largest
automaker, rebuffed Kerkorian and signaled their continued backing for
Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner's plan to cut $9 billion in costs
by the end of this year and trim more than 30,000 U.S. union jobs.
York was named to GM's board in February after pushing to speed up
efforts to recover from last year's $10.6 billion loss.

-snip-

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1qxAeAuEUwg&refer=home

[Nimrod2005]

9. Good morning folks. I am saying we add no more than 75K jobs...nt

[UpInArms]

13. Gambler's Anon Mtg: Derivative traders see Sept US payrolls at 103,340

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-06T120950Z_01_N06292553_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Traders are betting on Friday that U.S. employers added about 103,340 jobs in September in the final round of five derivatives auctions this week, according to median bets tallied by the firms holding the latest auction.

On Thursday, an afternoon auction implied that traders expected payrolls grew by 116,210 jobs, they said.

The result on the auction Friday morning was the lowest so far, and below the median 125,000 increase among analysts polled by Reuters earlier this week.

August nonfarm payrolls grew 128,000.

<snip>

A significant number of traders are betting on a relatively low number, with just over 50 percent of bets in the Friday derivatives auction pointing to payrolls additions of 100,000 or below.

Some traders and analysts scaled back their initial forecasts on September job growth after ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected 78,000 hiring last month by private employers.

...more...

[Nimrod2005]

27. Gambled and lost I guess........Should have taken the under.

[ozymandius]

11. early morning numbers

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8.

FTSE...6013.90...+9.40...+0.2%.
DAX...6086.12...+10.84...+0.2%.

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.01 Change +0.12 (+0.14%)

Dollars Ease Into NFPs

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollars_Ease_Into_NFPs_1160130481844.html

Trading is predictably range bound ahead of US NFP’s due 12:30 GMT later today with EUR/USD trading slightly below 1.2700 while USD/JPY has risen once again above the 118.00 figure. Yen’s weakness is due in part to lackluster readings from the index of Coincident indicators which printed at 77.8% below the forecast of 88.9% while the LEI component registered a gain of 20% against 10% expected. The currency was also weighed down by remarks from new economics Minister Ito who stated that yen weakness is supporting the Japanese economy. Mr. Ito’s words were taken by the market as a signal that Japanese authorities are unconcerned about yen’ recent decline against both the euro and the dollar and are therefore unlikely to actively intervene in the market to manage its movements. Finally, the geo-political risks of North Korea’s nuclear test scheduled for this week-end also sparked speculative flows out of the yen as traders preferred to stand aside until North Korea completes its exercise. We continue to believe that once the latest dramatics from North Korea are over, the markets will refocus on relative valuations. To that end, we do not believe that European officials will be nearly as nonchalant about yen’s decline against the euro as their Japanese counterparts. If the EUR/JPY once again lodges above the 150 level, the Europeans are likely to escalate their rhetoric significantly. With global currency exchange imbalances now wildly favoring Japanese businesses the other G-3 players will not tolerate the situation for long and therefore USD/JPY risk lies to the topside rather than the downside.

Meanwhile, the marquee event of the day is US NFP’s. However, the key to the report may not lie with the jobs number, but rather with average hourly earnings reading. With unemployment rate at a modest 4.7%, wage growth becomes far more critical to future health of the US economy especially in light of the fact that housing which has been a major contributor to US consumer spending in the form of Mortgage Equity Extraction is no longer an easy source of funds. Thus, assuming that the NFP print within a few thousand jobs of the 100K barrier, the direction in the EUR/USD for the rest of the day may well be driven by the subcomponents of the report rather than the headline number.

...more...

Will Payrolls Matter for the US Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Will_Payrolls_Matter_for_the_1160081745183.html

US Dollar



The big question tomorrow is not whether payrolls will come out over or under but whether it will come out significantly away from the market’s forecast to cause a meaningful reaction in the US dollar. We, like most traders are hoping for a big divergence since the quiet range trading in the major currency pairs has lasted too long that it has become painful. Taking a look at what we call the leading indicators for payrolls, the odds are more in favor of a weaker release over a stronger one (see our special NFP Preview report on www.dailyfx.com for more details). Yet with the short term sentiment in the market at the moment more pro dollar than anti dollar, this suggests that the market is banking on a number that will still indicate decent growth in the US economy. The Federal Reserve is far from raising interest rates which means that a strong number between 120 and 150 will probably only lead to a dollar rally that tests the currency’s recent highs against the Euro (1.2625) and the Japanese Yen (118.40). Further strength beyond that may be difficult. On the other hand, the market is waiting for a sign that could push the Fed to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. They do not expect to see that tomorrow, which is why the dollar is holding on strong. However if payrolls sink below 100k, we could see a sharp dollar sell-off that has the possibility of continuing onto the summer’s low. Either way, we are just hoping for a big move that can set the tone for fourth quarter trading. Meanwhile we want to point out a story in the FT today about Vega Asset Management, which we mentioned yesterday. The latest report indicates that the hedge fund’s assets are now down to $1 billion from a high of $12 billion. The meltdown of hedge funds is a big reason why we believe that despite what Bernanke and Kohn said yesterday, the Federal Reserve is leaning far closer to an interest rate cut than a rate hike at this point.

...more...

[54anickel]

49. Wierd buck chart today. Dives on jobs then bounces right back up

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 86.50 Change +0.61 (+0.71%)

Settle Time 13:00 Open 85.92

Previous Close 85.89 High 86.65

Low 85.79 2006-10-06 14:22:12, 30 min delay

Were they pricing in a drop in US rates before this? If they were it surely wasn't evident in the price, been pretty range bound most of the summer. :shrug:

[54anickel]

56. Dollar Posts Biggest Gain Since July After Employment Report

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2tfiyRjVb9s&refer=us

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted the biggest gain since July against the yen and euro after a government report showed the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in September.

Evidence of quicker economic growth prompted traders to pare bets the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates early next year, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors.

``The labor market is a bit stronger than the market expected,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``The report may push the market to question that it may be too early to discount a rate cut. The dollar gets some support here.''

The dollar rose 1.1 percent, the most since July 12, to 118.99 yen at 11:09 a.m. in New York from 117.71 yen yesterday. The U.S. currency touched 119.10 yen today, the highest since 119.19 on March 13. It increased to $1.2585 per euro from $1.2694. The U.S. currency broke through the $1.26 level for the first time since July.

more...

[HughBeaumont]

15. 51,000 jobs created this month.

Gee, only 100 thousand more cashier jobs and you can break even.

What does this make . . . nine straight months of underperformance?

Hey, SOMEone has to keep these CEOs fed.

[TheWatcher]

21. Do they report these numbers just for entertainment purposes these days?

They stopped reporting any real, relevant data so long ago I wonder why they bother.

You can be sure that 51,000 number is a tad, to be diplomatic, "optimistic."

I'd feel better if they just made stuff up.

Oh, wait.....

[AnneD]

31. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: How can you have this long a stretch of poor job creation and still have a 'great' economy. I envision the average American consumer on an ice flo, trying to stay upright. All around them you can hear the ice cracking and poping. All it will take is one more wave to send them in the water to drown (high gas price, increased interest rate, mortgage rate increase, illness, unemployment). I don't care what those sock puppets in the Bush admin or WS say....we are in a bear market and are about to tip over).




Happy hunting and watch out for the bears...

[HughBeaumont]

34. See, when they say "GREAT Economy!" . .

. . . they mean "great for their CEO and shareholders (who are, essentially, CEOs)". This is pretty much a jobless economy, devoid of any true strength because the "betters" closed all the factories and import/export the degree-required jobs as well. With no manufacturing and industrial might, you're not only unable to gainfully employ everyone regardless of intelligence, you're also leaving yourself high and dry should there come a time where real defense and the industries to build that defense are needed. Getting to be that you're either going to need a Masters or a PhD to file papers or you're slinging garbage.

The Unemployment Rate is yet another sham used to prop up the Pretzeldent.

[UpInArms]

17. Housing slowdown costing jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BC7804D8B%2DEA7B%2D4875%2D8ECC%2D341AB3EF5E07%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. housing slowdown is beginning to be felt in the job market.

The number of workers employed in residential construction dropped by 13,000 in September, while the total hours worked in construction plunged by 1.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Softer hiring and hours worked were also seen in related industries, such as manufacturing of wood products, mineral products and furniture, the government said.

Total employment in construction rose by 8,000 as nonresidential builders added to their payrolls.

The rest of the jobs report was on the weak side. The number of new jobs created dropped to 51,000 in September, the lowest since last fall's hurricanes, and less than half of the expected 123,000.

The number of hours worked in the economy fell by 0.1% in September, including a 1% drop in hours worked in durable-goods manufacturing.

Of 278 industries, 51.4% were hiring in September, the slowest proportion since September 2005. In manufacturing, only 40.5% of 84 industries were hiring.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Treasuries turn lower after September jobs report

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-06T123723Z_01_NYG000378_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. government bond prices turned lower on Friday after a weaker-than-expected September employment report, but which showed an upward revision to August's payrolls number.

Non-farm payroll jobs rose by 51,000 in September, far below economists' median forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 125,000. But August payrolls were upwardly revised to a rise of 188,000.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> fell 4/32 in price for a yield of 4.63 percent, versus 4.60 percent just before the report and versus 4.61 percent late on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely to their prices.

[UpInArms]

19. Futures cut chances of Fed rate cuts on payrolls

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-06T123723Z_01_CHB000219_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-JOBS-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures turned lower in the wake of Friday's September payrolls report, which showed U.S. job creation was weaker than expected but included a big upward revision for August.

Futures now fully price a steady federal funds rate at the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and chances of a rate cut in December <FFF7> slipped to 8 percent from 12 percent just before the data.

The Labor Department said 51,000 non-farm payroll jobs were created in September, far below Wall Street forecasts for 125,000, but August job growth was at 188,000 against the original 128,000.

[Mnemosyne]

20. Great toon Oz! Thanks for all

you and marketeers do!:toast:

[UpInArms]

22. Consumer mood: Good, but not ecstatic

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061006/ap_on_bi_ge/ipsos_consumer_confidence

excerpt:

The RBC Cash Index, based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos, showed that confidence clocked in at 83.1 in early October.

That was down from September's reading of 93.7 — a seven-month high_ when sinking gasoline prices gave a big lift to Americans' spirits.

<snip>

Gasoline prices have dropped further over the month and the Dow Jones industrials have soared to new record highs, but that didn't translate into a boost in confidence in October. Why?

"There are always the usual nagging doubts. ... Is it real? Is it sustainable? People are sort of saying `We don't want to get too optimistic,'" said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

And, there's still some anxiety among consumers about how sharp of a slowdown will occur in the housing market, and the magnitude of the cooling in the overall economy, analysts said. Those were factors restraining confidence in October, they said.

<snip>

President Bush's approval rating on the economy is at 40 percent among all adults surveyed in an AP-Ipsos poll. That remains near his lowest ratings. The poll showed that people trusted Democrats to do a better job of handling the economy than Republicans.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. pre-opening blather

09:06 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.5. The futures market has weakened in the wake of the jobs report as participants are concentrating on the below-consensus nonfarm payrolls gain as a sign the economy may be slowing in a more appreciable manner than is now believed. We disagree with that view and think the payrolls number is simply offering a perfect excuse to take some money off the table from the market's short-term overbought condition.

08:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.8. The jobs report showed a lower than expected nonfarm payrolls gain of 51K (consensus 120K), but there was an upward revision to the prior month to188K from 128K. The two months together average just about 120K. Hourly earnings rose 0.2%, which was below the 0.3% consensus estimate and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.7%. Altogether the data won't change expectations that the Fed will refrain from raising rates again at this month's FOMC meeting, so we consider this really to be a neutral report.

08:04 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Based on action in the futures market, the cash market is currently slated to start the session on a downward note. The negative disposition is being driven by a burgeoning sense that the market is overbought on a short-term basis and due for a pullback of some sort. The early indication can't be taken for granted, though, knowing that the September jobs report will be released at 08:30 ET.

[Nimrod2005]

26. Oh man, I guess we won't see DOW 12,000....I had wanted to see us

Hit the 12k mark...Nice round number.

[UpInArms]

28. 10:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,819.47 47.22 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,293.52 12.82 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,345.79 7.43 (0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.661% 0.053

NYSE Volume 393,985,000
Nasdaq Volume 283,110,000

10:00 am : The major indices remain on the defensive, pressured by a lack of leadership to the upside. At this juncture, all ten economic sectors are showing a loss for the session, but none are down more than 1.00%. By the same token, there isn't a single Standard and Poor's industry group that is up more than 1.00%. The retreat has been orderly in nature and reflects more of a profit taking move than a move that marks a clear shift in sentiment. In other words, participants took notice of the smaller than expected payrolls gain, but it hasn't incited any real fear about the state of the economy.DJ30 -47.62 NASDAQ -12.48 SP500 -7.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1770/651/228 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2069/575/245 mln

09:45 am : As expected the stock market has started the session on a weak note. The catalyst for the slide has been the lower than expected nonfarm payrolls gain of 51K (consensus 120K) for September that, reportedly, is fueling concerns about the economy slowing in a more appreciable manner than had been believed. Briefing.com isn't buying that argument and thinks the jobs report is serving more as an excuse to take profits from the market's strong run of late than anything else. A closer look at the payrolls data reveals that it wasn't as weak as the headline made it appear. To wit, the prior month saw a large upward revision to 188K positions that put the two-month average right in line with the consensus estimate, and the household survey showed a 271K gain in employment (hence, the downtick in the unemployment rate to 4.6%). As noted in our Page One column, such an increase would be highly unlikely if labor market conditions really did deteriorate in September.DJ30 -42.10

[54anickel]

32. Wonder what prompted Inc.com to re-run this story?.....

U.S. Falls From Top Spot in Global Competitive Rankings

http://www.inc.com/criticalnews/articles/200610/global.html?partner=yahoofeed

Despite a surge of entrepreneurial activity, years of running budget deficits have knocked the United States from its top spot on a closely-watched ranking of the world's most competitive nations.

Citing "large macroeconomic imbalances," the World Economic Forum, a global policy group based in Geneva, ranked the United States in sixth place on this year's Global Competitiveness Index, the group announced on Sept. 26.

The annual index is based on economic data, as well as surveys with more than 11,000 business leaders in 215 countries.

Switzerland ranked No. 1, up from No. 4 last year, as a result of its "sound institutional environment, excellent infrastructure, efficient markets and high levels of technological innovation," the report said.

snip>

Could it be this next line?

Lopez-Claros said that business activity in these countries clearly benefited from "rule of law, an efficient judicial system, and high levels of transparency and accountability within public institutions."

[54anickel]

33. Blame the Weatherman: Hurricane Warnings Led to Bad Market Bets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZ6fnqtMQbks&refer=exclusive

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The weatherman got it wrong again, and this time he disrupted more than a picnic.

In May, U.S. government and private forecasters warned of another dire Atlantic hurricane season. Coming on the heels of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the forecasts kept oil prices near a record for months. They scared away some insurance investors in a year the companies may end up turning in higher profits. And hedge funds like Amaranth Advisors LLC gambled big that natural gas prices would climb -- and lost.

No hurricanes have struck the U.S. coast so far this year, deflating natural gas prices. This week, one of the most closely watched forecasters, Colorado State University, said it had overstated the hurricane risk. The bungled forecasts shed light on what happens when energy traders, investors and, in some cases, the news media, rely too heavily on an inexact science.

``That's the nature of the game when it comes to forecasting,'' says Philip Klotzbach, the 26-year-old research associate who is the lead author of the Colorado State hurricane report. ``We did the best we could with the information we had.''

Colorado State, based in Fort Collins, is part of a cottage industry of weather forecasters, from governments and universities to private firms. A U.S. National Weather Service Web site lists 322 ``commercial weather vendors.''

Their reports are pored over by traders in the $6 billion-a- day natural gas futures market, insurers calculating what to charge policyholders, investors judging how much to pay for insurance stocks and, of course, by coastal residents.

more...

Wagers to benefit from your neighbor's plight of chaos, destruction and death...I dunno, sounds so B.C.E.-ish to me. Do you suppose they now blame God for their neighbor's good fortune? :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

35. Bundesbank boosts sentiment for gold market

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/15eeae1a-5493-11db-901f-0000779e2340.html

Germany’s Bundesbank said on Thursday that it does not plan to sell any gold from its reserves for a third year, giving a significant boost to sentiment in the gold market after recent sharp falls in prices.

This news means that European central banks are unlikely to reach the 500 tonne Central Bank Gold Agreement sales quota for a second year in succession as they re-evaluate the importance of gold’s role in their foreign exchange reserves.

snip>

With gold prices down by more than 10 per cent since the start of September and more than 20 below their 26-year peak in May, much of the recent weakness was put down to uncertainty over how much gold central banks would sell before the end of the second year of the CBGA on September 26.

snip>

The European Central Bank on Wednesday provided an update for the market over how much gold was sold last month but this appears to have created more confusion than clarity.

The ECB’s update provides a value for the sales rather than volume and this was further complicated by a revaluation of the gold sold.

Analysts trying to work out the final position have come up with differing figures, which have opposing implications for the outlook for gold prices.

more....

[54anickel]

37. Vega Select Investors Seek Return of $400 Million, People Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aASUXKZ1pNHo&refer=us

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Vega Select Opportunities hedge fund, known for making bets on bonds, received redemption requests for as much as $400 million after falling almost 11 percent last month, investors said.

Vega Select started September with $1 billion of assets, down from $2.2 billion at the end of 2004, said two investors, who declined to be identified because the information isn't public. The fund, the biggest managed by Madrid- and New York- based Vega Asset Management LLC, has dropped almost 17 percent this year, hurt by losing wagers that bond prices would decline, according to a letter sent to the company's clients.

``Clearly, we and the portfolio manager aren't pleased with the recent performance,'' wrote Michael Mann, president of the firm's Vega Securities LP affiliate in New York, yesterday in the letter. ``The Vega organization remains strong and stable.''

Vega's stumble occurred during a tumultuous month for hedge funds. Amaranth Advisors LLC, based in Greenwich, Connecticut, was forced to liquidate after losing $6.5 billion in the natural-gas market. Pirate Capital Management LLC, a $1.8 billion firm in Norwalk, Connecticut, said it would close to new clients after half of its 10-person investment staff quit.

Vega, founded in 1996 by Ravi Mehra, Robert Slutz and a team of traders from Banco Santander Central Hispano SA, oversees so-called macro funds, which try to exploit broad economic trends, primarily by trading bonds and currencies. The firm now manages about $3 billion, down from a peak of $12 billion in 2004, the investors said.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. More Good News! Banta: Facility closures, consolidation to impact 500 jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0279F199%2DD71F%2D4E8E%2DAA1A%2DA80A2AB92789%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Banta Corp. (BN : 48.05, -0.05, -0.1% ) on Friday identified facilities that it will close or sell as part of previously announced strategic initiatives, and said a total of 500 positions will be impacted by the plans. Banta said it will close its facilities in Eden Prairie, Minn. and Spanish Fork, Utah by the end of the year. The company also said it will sell its direct-marketing printing plant in Danbury, Conn. In addition, three book fulfillment facilities in Wisconsin will be closed and consolidated into a new and larger fulfillment center, Banta said. In September, the company said it expected savings from the initiatives to total $27 million in 2007 and about $35 million in 2008. The company also said it sees related pretax charges of $9 million this year and $19 million in 2007.

[54anickel]

39. Banks' love affair with hedge funds

Large banks are eager to manage their own hedge funds, despite recent blowups like Amaranth.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/news/companies/banks_hedgefunds/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Hedge funds have come under fire in recent days, owing in part to the recent $6 billion Amaranth debacle. But the regulatory run-ins aren't scaring off large banks, which increasingly are turning to hedge funds as a way to create serious growth.

As increased competition for deposit growth and a flattening yield curve continues to put pressure on profits, banks are eager to attract high net-worth clients and diversify their profit stream.

And while banks like Goldman Sachs (Charts) and Morgan Stanley (Charts) have had success in their prime brokerage units, which cater in part to servicing hedge funds, analysts say the big bucks lie in the management of actual hedge fund assets.

Just look at the numbers: Hedge fund managers collect 2 percent of the assets under management regardless of the fund's profitability. If a fund shows a profit, its managers receive an additional 20 percent as a performance fee.

For the banking industry, which is concerned about dwindling profits and higher interest rates, that type of fee structure is particularly appealing, analysts said.

snip>

The banking industry is in the business of gathering money wherever it may exist," said Bove. "If the money now exists in hedge funds, it's incumbent on the banking industry to get into that business."

But banks are doing more than just getting in to the business. They're now becoming leaders within the hedge fund industry.

Banking titans Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan (Charts) Asset Management - through JPMorgan's majority stake in Highbridge Capital Management - are currently the largest hedge fund firms in the United States, according to a recent survey by industry magazine Absolute Return.

more....

Hmmm, I dunno if it's the call of profits alone on this one. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan...that thin veil between the big 3 and the CB comes to mind again. Could this be some sort of "pre-emptive, containment" move?

[54anickel]

41. Bring On the Bears

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/06/opinion/06sauer.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

SHORT sellers occupy a position in the stock market like that of predators in nature: necessary but unloved. Corporations, which like to see their stock always rising, despise these traders, who borrow shares and sell them in the expectation that the price will fall soon and they’ll make a profit. There are signs, however, that these vilified traders might be coming into a measure of respect for the critical balance they provide in a market frequently dominated by the puffery of companies and sell-side analysts.

The short sellers’ skeptical scrutiny of companies they feel are overpriced has led them to uncover many of the major financial frauds of recent years. Yet they continue to be burdened by a regulatory scrutiny of their own actions that springs more from rumors than fact. In the 1930’s, short selling was hobbled by restrictions intended to prevent the “bear raids” many thought then (but few think now) underlay the market collapse of 1929. These included the “uptick rule,” which prohibits short sales when the price of a stock is in decline.

In an unusual (and laudable) effort to measure whether a long-lived regulation actually works, the Securities and Exchange Commission recently completed a pilot program to suspend the uptick rule for a third of the stocks on the Russell 3000 index and compare their performance to stocks still subject to the rule.

At a meeting of prominent economists held by the commission last month, consensus held that price restrictions on short selling were a regulatory anachronism of no benefit to the market. Stocks freed from the uptick rule had shown no greater vulnerability to momentum selling than the control group. A few panelists, in fact, uttered the heresy that bear raids are now so uncommon that they no longer need be of concern to regulators.

No such view was expressed, however, regarding the flip side of the bear raid: the “pump and dump,” a scheme in which someone promotes a worthless stock he owns, then sells it as gullible investors fall for the promotion. Panelists noted that these schemes remain commonplace, particularly among small-cap stocks, with fax and spam e-mail messages joining more traditional methods to tout toxic stocks.

They also suggested that the first line of defense against such schemes has not been the S.E.C., which acts slowly when it acts at all, but rather the much disdained short seller. By putting their money where their mouths are, short sellers are the only market participants with an incentive to deflate bubbles and inject pessimistic information into the market.

more...

And THIS is the game they want you to invest wager your retirement fund.

[54anickel]

42. FLOYD NORRIS: Backdating vs. deception

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/05/business/norris06.php#

Some call it spring-loading. Others call it fraud.

A big question mark over the current investigations of options- granting practices is whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will restrict itself to clear cases of backdating - saying options were issued months before they really were - and let the spring-loaders walk.

Spring-loading is the granting of options just before good news is going to be released that will send the stock price higher. (It is related to "bullet dodging," the practice of delaying the issuance of options until bad news lowers the price.)

Spring-loading differs little from an executive's using inside information to buy stock or stock options in the market before the good news is disclosed to all. But an executive who receives spring-loaded options gets the stock at the old price if he wants it and can avoid the purchase if the stock later falls back.

The law appears to indicate that spring-loading is legal if a company's board of directors knows what is going on and decides to grant the options. Both board and executive have the same information.

Even then, if the SEC wants to be vigilant, some think that it could move unless a company makes clear that it is spring-loading when it issues the options, something few do.

"If the board knows, it is not a violation, but it is a serious disclosure problem," Harvey Goldschmid, a former SEC member, said last week at a Columbia University conference.

snip>

And what about the little guy who's money is being used?

It could be argued that a board is just granting a bonus in the form of clearly valuable options, rather than in cash that could be used for other purposes. But the fact remains that shareholders were told the options were granted at market value - not at values that insiders knew would be well below market value once the news came out. They were, in other words, deceived by their directors.

If the SEC does not bring spring- loading cases, it could indicate that the commission, sensing hostile political winds, is shying away from strong enforcement. That would be sad.

more...

[54anickel]

43. Mortgage rates decline for 10th time in 11 weeks

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/real_estate/mortgage_rates/index.htm?postversion=2006100511

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage rates fell for the 10th time in 11 weeks, though the drop was slight this week, according to a survey released Thursday.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.30 percent for the week ending Oct. 5, down from 6.31 percent, according to Freddie Mac's (Charts) Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.98 percent.

The 15-year FRM averaged 5.98 percent this week, unchanged from last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.54 percent. This is the lowest 15-year FRM rates have been since March.

Rates for five-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) came in at 6.00 percent this week, unchanged from last week, the lowest they've been in six months. A year ago, they averaged 5.48 percent.

One-year ARMs averaged 5.46 percent, down from 5.47 percent last week. A year ago, the one-year ARM averaged 4.77 percent. The one-year ARM also reached a six-month low.

"Mortgage rates fell to a six-month low this past week, and, not surprisingly, home refinancing rose 18 percent last week, accounting for almost half of all mortgage applications," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, in a statement.

more...

[TrogL]

44. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-09-05 Tuesday, September 5 0.900009 USD
2006-09-06 Wednesday, September 6 0.904814 USD
2006-09-07 Thursday, September 7 0.900982 USD
2006-09-08 Friday, September 8 0.893575 USD
2006-09-11 Monday, September 11 0.891583 USD
2006-09-12 Tuesday, September 12 0.893975 USD
2006-09-13 Wednesday, September 13 0.893575 USD
2006-09-14 Thursday, September 14 0.896218 USD
2006-09-15 Friday, September 15 0.893495 USD
2006-09-18 Monday, September 18 0.895335 USD
2006-09-19 Tuesday, September 19 0.890551 USD
2006-09-20 Wednesday, September 20 0.887154 USD
2006-09-21 Thursday, September 21 0.892857 USD
2006-09-22 Friday, September 22 0.895175 USD
2006-09-25 Monday, September 25 0.895817 USD
2006-09-26 Tuesday, September 26 0.896138 USD
2006-09-27 Wednesday, September 27 0.896861 USD
2006-09-28 Thursday, September 28 0.900252 USD
2006-09-29 Friday, September 29 0.896781 USD
2006-10-02 Monday, October 2 0.896539 USD
2006-10-03 Tuesday, October 3 0.892061 USD
2006-10-04 Wednesday, October 4 0.886054 USD
2006-10-05 Thursday, October 5 0.88739 USD


Current values

Last trade 0.8892 Change -0.0011 (-0.12%)
Previous Close 0.8901 Open 0.8909
Low 0.8880 High 0.8935


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at .8870 would open the door for a larger- degree decline during October. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.




Analysis

CBC Radio 1 reported (IIRC) 75,000 new part-time jobs, mostly in the service sector but a loss of 15,000 full-time jobs. Not good. Rapidly falling oil prices are questioning the logic of the massive development in the oil sands.

[54anickel]

47. 12:58 update - red is the color for the day

Dow 11,823.07 43.62 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,295.73 10.61 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,346.64 6.58 (0.49%)
10-yr Bond 4.7000% 0.0920
30-yr Bond 4.8430% 0.0820
NYSE Volume 1,386,326,000
Nasdaq Volume 933,533,000

12:30 pm : The indices suffered a noticeable dip in the past half hour that is largely the result of news surrounding General Motors (GM 30.58, -2.55). Specifically, Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. has made it known that it doesn't plan to pursue the purchase of an additional 12 million shares of GM's stock after the auto maker terminated its alliance discussions with Renault and Nissan. It was also noted that Kerkorian's lieutenant Jerome York resigned his position as a GM board member. The pullback in GM shares has driven the auto group into the position of being one of the worst-performing areas in the market today.DJ30 -47.86 NASDAQ -14.12 SP500 -7.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1875/953/855 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2303/808/1.22 bln

12:00 pm : All eyes were on this morning's September employment report, and in a relative sense, the report proved to be a disappointment. The point of contention was the 51K increase in nonfarm payrolls that was well below the consensus estimate of 120K. As one might expect, the headline triggered reports about economic slowdown concerns being at the heart of today's losses.

In essence, the payrolls report simply provided an excuse to take some profits following the market's strong run of late, because on closer inspection, it wasn't as disappointing as it seemed.

Mitigating factors included an upward revision to the prior month's nonfarm payroll gain to 188K from 128K and the recognition that the household survey showed a 271K jump in payrolls. Such strength in the latter survey would be highly unlikely if labor market conditions really did deteriorate in September. Meanwhile, the average payroll gain between August and September was very much consistent with the consensus estimate for September.

The Treasury market perhaps serves as the best reminder today that the report wasn't weak as Treasuries are getting clipped across the curve on the notion that upward payroll revisions will mean a Fed easing will come later rather than sooner. The 10-year note at this juncture is down 17 ticks, bringing its yield up to 4.67%.

In terms of the stock market, it has struggled to get anything going because of a general lack of sector leadership and a burgeoning sense that the indices are due for a pullback of some sort given their strong run of late. The energy sector (-1.30%) is pacing the retreat. Once again, it is being pressured by the slide in oil prices (-$0.83 at $59.20).

The drug store stocks are another pocket of noticeable weakness as news of a potential legal settlement that will likely invite lower prescription drug prices is compounding concerns about earnings prospects that were already at the forefront for investors after Wal-Mart said yesterday it will accelerate the launch of its $4 generic drug prescription pricing.DJ30 -27.85 NASDAQ -11.85 SP500 -6.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1764/1010/758 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2162/930/1.04 bln

11:30 am : Little change since the last update as the major indices continue to absorb modest losses. Like any other session, there are notable winners and losers. On the winning side is Global Signal (GSL 55.06, +4.96), which is up 10% after agreeing to be acquired by Crown Castle (CCI 34.02, -0.73). Micron (MU 15.76, -1.78), meanwhile, is on the losing side after failing to impress investors with its fiscal fourth quarter report.DJ30 -17.85 NASDAQ -6.87 SP500 -4.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1793/963/652 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2172/834 /869 mln

11:05 am : True to its recent form, the market is showing resilience in the face of selling activity. The current recovery effort is a case of most stocks working their way back from larger losses. We have also started to see some leadership emerge from a sector standpoint as both telecom services (+0.22%) and basic materials (+0.12%) have moved into positive territory for the day. Have noticed, too, that the latest rebound try has coincided with a larger drop in oil prices, which are now down $0.80 at $59.23 per barrel on speculation OPEC members aren't likely to make good on production cut announcements.DJ30 -23.77 NASDAQ -7.18 SP500 -5.04 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1741/948/584 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2193/762/682 mln

10:30 am : Indices remain near their worst levels of the session as buyers have kept to the sidelines. If slowdown concerns were really at the heart of today's retreat, it stands to reason that defensive-oriented sectors like consumer staples (-0.58%), health care (-0.52%), and utilities (-0.65%) would be exhibiting relative strength. As it so happens, each is underperforming the SandP 500 (-0.51%) at this point while the growth-oriented technology sector (-0.36%) is faring better on a comparative basis. Separately, bonds are getting hit on reports that participants in that market are disappointed that the September employment report, when combined with upward revisions to prior reports, didn't bolster the case for an easing sooner rather later. DJ30 -46.26 NASDAQ -13.16 SP500 -6.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1828/785/395 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2223/632/489 mln

[54anickel]

48. Bernanke Passes The Buck 10/05/06

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=990

In a speech at the Economics Club in Washington, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke warned America to save more and spend less to preserve our standard of living for the long-term. The core of his message that we must improve fiscal discipline and the quality of our education is not new; his advice will also be applicable as long as we have politicians and schools. The speech is more striking for what was not mentioned – namely the Fed’s role in this process.

We know that the retirement of baby boomers poses enormous challenges. Bernanke expressed the urgency of fiscal policy reform to pave the way for either greater government revenues or lower expenses. It seems like everybody likes to talk about the need for greater savings, but no politician wants to have it take place while they are in office. The reason is simple: in the short-run, greater savings tend to come with less spending: increased savings could signal a recession.

Bernanke is not a lawmaker, he is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In this role and in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Board, he oversees monetary policy. Monetary policy should be primarily concerned with preserving purchasing power by setting interest rate and money supply targets. And while not mentioned in Bernanke’s speech, the Fed has an enormous influence over the spending and savings habits of both consumers and government. Overly accommodating monetary policy pushed consumers into debt after the technology bubble burst. Shortsighted fiscal policy has also contributed to the poor state of the American consumer (“lower taxes get more money into consumers’ pockets”), but the Fed has plenty of its own housecleaning to do before scolding politicians that they behave, well, like politicians.

In our view, the right medicine to foster savings and investments would be for the Fed to tighten money supply through higher interest rates, by imposing stricter lending standards and directly reducing money supply through market intervention. The Fed is best positioned to encourage savings and investments, to put a dampener on consumption. Small cuts in consumptions now could preserve much more painful cuts in the future.

Why doesn’t the Fed prescribe his medicine rather than passing the buck to Congress? Because the economy is too leveraged, too interest rate sensitive. As consumers nowadays buy just about everything on credit and have loads of debt, higher interest rates today hit them harder than they would have twenty years ago. Indeed, the current interest rate environment has already started to deflate the housing market and has put in motion an economy that may slide into recession. Increasing interest rates sufficiently to force a cut in consumption risks inducing deflation and a depression.

more...

[54anickel]

50. North Korea May Carry Out Nuclear Test This Weekend (Update5)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoakXuLFzung&refer=home

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea may test its first nuclear bomb this weekend, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi said in Washington, according to a government official in Japan.

``Regarding the nuclear issue, there are several views, but it is possible they will carry it out as soon as this weekend,'' Yachi told U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said today in Tokyo, speaking on condition of anonymity.

North Korea announced on Oct. 3 it will conduct a test without giving the timing, prompting calls by South Korea, China and Japan to abandon the plan and return to six-nation talks on dismantling its nuclear weapons program.

``It is important the international community sends a strong message to North Korea,'' Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters in Tokyo. A North Korean nuclear test would prompt Japan and the international community to take a ``severe stance,'' he said.

snip>

North Korea's threat as an exporter of weapons technology to terrorists or so-called rogue states would increase with a test, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said.

``North Korea is a known proliferator of weapons technologies,'' Rumsfeld said yesterday at the Pentagon, according to a Defense Department transcript. ``They've announced they have nuclear weapons. People have to be concerned that a proliferating nation might proliferate weapons of that type.''

more....

[54anickel]

51. 2:36 watching the red paint dry

Dow 11,846.92 19.77 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,302.19 4.15 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,349.14 4.08 (0.30%)
10-yr Bond 4.6960% 0.0880
30-yr Bond 4.8370% 0.0760
NYSE Volume 1,845,016,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,227,939,000

2:30 pm : Not much change since the last update, which means the indices continue to trade modestly below the flat line. At this point, stocks are trading largely on their own accord as the Treasury market closed early for the Columbus Day holiday. Why the bond market needs a day-and-half to honor the founder of America is beyond us, but just so you know, that market will be closed all day on Monday as well. The stock market, for its capitalist part, will be open for a full day of trading.DJ30 -29.37 NASDAQ -7.08 SP500 -5.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1756/1172/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2140/1050/1.05 bln

2:00 pm : The market has spent the entirety of the session in negative territory, but it has refused to buckle in the midst of the selling activity. Its resilience can be attributed to an underlying sense of bullishness that is built on the belief the Fed will be successful in engineering a soft landing. Some will argue that the September jobs report threw the Fed's acumen into question, but Briefing.com isn't part of that group. In our estimation, the September employment report, and the revisions to prior data, support the soft landing argument and validate the belief the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates at this month's FOMC meeting. DJ30 -32.01 NASDAQ -6.07 SP500 -4.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1790/1121/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2202/961/959 mln

1:30 pm : The indices remain underwater, which is how they have traded since the opening bell. Unlike past sessions, there hasn't been much participation from buyers, which is evident in A/D lines at the NYSE and Nasdaq that favor decliners by a wide margin. Within the Dow, General Motors (GM 31.43, -1.70) tops the list of laggards and is followed by Caterpillar (CAT 67.35, -0.89) which is under pressure after Agco (AG 24.29, -1.96) cut its third quarter earnings expectations.DJ30 -44.74 NASDAQ -9.71 SP500 -6.69 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1801/1086/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2232/919/901 mln

1:00 pm : The fallout from the GM news appears to have run its course for the broader market, which has steadied since the prior report. Overall, though, there just hasn't been a lot of conviction on the part of buyers today who recognize the market is due for a pullback of some sort after rallying 10.0% from the July low. Basic Materials (+0.19%) is the only sector sporting a gain today while energy (-1.19%) is the only sector moving more than 1.00%. DJ30 -42.74 NASDAQ -10.20 SP500 -6.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1935/938/944 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2367/789/1.36 bln

12:30 pm : The indices suffered a noticeable dip in the past half hour that is largely the result of news surrounding General Motors (GM 30.58, -2.55). Specifically, Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. has made it known that it doesn't plan to pursue the purchase of an additional 12 million shares of GM's stock after the auto maker terminated its alliance discussions with Renault and Nissan. It was also noted that Kerkorian's lieutenant Jerome York resigned his position as a GM board member. The pullback in GM shares has driven the auto group into the position of being one of the worst-performing areas in the market today.DJ30 -47.86 NASDAQ -14.12 SP500 -7.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1875/953/855 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2303/808/1.22 bln

[54anickel]

53. Check the 3:00 blather - wtf?

3:00 pm : The market is putting up a good fight to close the week on a positive note as buyers have emerged late in the session. The roster of economic sectors shows more green now than it has all day, as four sectors are now on positive ground. The influential technoogy sector (+0.03) is included in that bunch, and while its gain is negligible, its resilience today is not considering the tech sector has rallied 1.7% this week alone. The energy sector (+0.22%), meanwhile, has pivoted from the weakest area today to one of the strongest on no specific news.DJ30 -19.21 NASDAQ -1.19 SP500 -3.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1499/1437/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1982/1199/1.14 bln

3:15 numbers - Green? Ahhh, by sectors. :eyes:

Dow 11,831.63 35.06 (0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,301.25 5.09 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,347.92 5.30 (0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.6960% 0.0880
NYSE Volume 2,071,881,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,401,942,000


Advances & Declines
NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 1,335 (40%) 1,415 (46%)
Declines 1,850 (55%) 1,523 (49%)
Unchanged 173 (5%) 159 (5%)
Up Vol* 730 (37%) 593 (45%)
Down Vol* 1,203 (62%) 647 (49%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (1%) 86 (6%)
New Hi's 135 120
New Lo's 15 43

[stop the bleeding]

55. WTf is right

the NAZ is above it's open
the DOW is below and the S&P.......

[54anickel]

54. Budget Deficit Drops to $250 Billion

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6130616,00.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - The federal budget deficit estimate for the fiscal year just completed has dropped to $250 billion, congressional estimators said Friday, as the economy continued to fuel impressive tax revenues.

The Congressional Budget Office's latest estimate is $10 billion below CBO predictions issued in August and well below a July White House prediction of $296 billion.

The improving deficit picture - Bush predicted a $423 billion deficit in his February budget - has been driven by better-than-expected tax receipts, especially from corporate profits, CBO said.

The 2005 deficit registered $318 billion; the record $413 billion deficit was posted in 2004.

At $250 billion, it would be the lowest since the $158 billion figure in 2002, the first deficit following four years of surpluses.

The CBO estimate continues a positive trend on the deficit after a grim deficit performance during President Bush's first term, and comes despite soaring war costs and $50 billion in emergency spending for hurricane relief.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,850.21 16.48 (0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,299.99 6.35 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,349.58 3.64 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.696% 0.088

NYSE Volume 2,475,116,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,705,942,000

4:20 pm : The September employment report was the market's focal point on Friday and what it saw didn't generate too much concern. Granted a lower than expected increase of 51K in nonfarm payrolls was disappointing in its own right, but when coupled with the sharp upward revision to August payrolls (to 188K from 128K), it conveyed a message that the labor market is still solid and that the Fed will again refrain from raising interest rates at this month's FOMC meeting.

Overall, it was a fairly neutral report. The market's performance suggested as much, as the indices suffered only modest losses despite being up big for the week entering Friday's session.

From a corporate standpoint, the big item of the day was an early-afternoon report that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. had indicated it won't pursue the purchase of an additional 12 million shares of General Motors' (GM 31.05, -2.08) stock after the auto maker terminated its alliance discussions with Renault and Nissan. In addition, it was noted that Kerkorian's lieutenant Jerome York resigned from GM's board.

The aforementiond news triggered a knee-jerk dip in the indices that carried them to session lows, but they soon bounced back in a reflectection of the market's underlying bullish bias.

The Treasury market, on the other hand, didn't have any bounce today as it sold off hard in the wake of the employment report. The explanation for the weak showing was tied to a feeling of disappointment that the upward revision to nonfarm payroll employment suggested an easing from the Fed was likely to happen later rather than sooner. The benchmark 10-year note fell 23 ticks, bringing its yield up to 4.69%.

The jump in Treasury rates acted as an impeding factor for stocks, which started the day in negative territory and stayed their until the closing bell. The Nasdaq for its part came within a tenth of a point of turning positive before it got met with profit-taking resistance.

There wasn't any strong leadership on the day, which was evident in the fact that no economic sector moved more than 1.00%. Materials (+0.51%), telecom services (+0.20%), and energy (+0.15%) were the only sectors that ended higher; meanwhile, the influential financial sector (-0.40%) underperformed in conjunction with the spike in market rates.

Held back by General Motors, the auto group was the worst-performing industry in the SandP 500. Another notable laggard was the drug retail group, which got clipped further on reports that a potential legal settlement might lead to lower prescription drug pricing. That's good news for consumers, but not for the drug retailers' earnings prospects.

As a reminder, the Treasury market will be closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day, but the stock market will be open for a full day of trading. Next week also will mark the start of the third quarter earnings reporting period when Alcoa (AA 27.74, +0.17) reports its results after the close on Tuesday.DJ30 -16.48 NASDAQ -6.35 SP500 -3.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1720/1291/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2090/1134/1.50 bln

3:30 pm : The Nasdaq was less than a tenth of a point away from turning positive when its recovery try was met with resistance. The end result is that it remains in negative territory, along with the other indices, with a half hour to go in the trading session. Looking ahead to next week, the third quarter earnings reporting period will officially begin with Alcoa's (AA) report after Tuesday's close. Operating earnings for the SandP 500 are expected to be up 14%, which would mark the 13th straight quarter of a double-digit gain. DJ30 -36.66 NASDAQ -5.19 SP500 -5.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1396/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1897/1277/1.25 bln

Have a great weekend everyone - hope I am more visible next week :hi:

[Clarkie1]

58. Look for the S & P 500 to trade in the 1400-1450 range by 1st quarter 2007

1250 or below should be considered a definite buying opportunity in the interim. If that does not occur, dollar cost averaging is always a good bet.