STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 12

[ozymandius]

Thursday October 12, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 830 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2115 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1821 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1782
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 11, 2006

Dow... 11,852.13 -15.04 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,308.27 -7.16 (-0.31%)
S&P 500... 1,349.95 -3.47 (-0.26%)
Gold future... 576.50 +0.30 (+0.05%)
30-Year Bond 4.91% +0.03 (+0.70%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.78% +0.04 (+0.76%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Financial Liquidity, Interest Rates & Commodity Prices

The broad stock indexes have struggled in the red throughout the morning with earnings season off to a bumpy start. Alcoa’s earnings came in lower than expected yesterday after the bell and this morning Monsanto disappointed with bigger losses than expected following a surprise increase in revenue for the quarter. Revenue for Monsanto grew by 9% to $1.39 billion and analysts expected a loss of 21 cents per share, but the company actually lost 27 cents per share. With the Dow Industrials hitting new highs, the big-cap stocks appear to be priced for perfection. Earnings season is off to a difficult start.

-cut-

Some analysts believe the worst is over for the real estate markets, while many believe this is only the beginning of bigger problems for real estate. My take on the overall situation is that the Fed will use the housing weakness, the bond market rally, the correction in commodity prices, and whatever else they need to FAKE a deflation in the first and second quarters next year. This will give them a green light to open the floodgates of liquidity with lower interest rates and a big increase in the supply of money. They know they must inflate or die! I do not believe our policy makers will allow the deflationary pressures that have persisted in Japan for the last decade. Furthermore, I believe the bond market has been deliberately ramped higher, especially on the long end of the curve to provide a soft landing for the housing markets. To get a good perspective of the EXTREMES we are facing in order to push interest rates lower, please check out this short article by Pinank Mehta, “An ‘interesting’ Picture Of The US Bond Market.” Statistically, it’s pretty tough to argue with what he has to say:

“THIS IS THE MOST ALARMING PICTURE I HAVE SEEN IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS SINCE SOME TIME.”

The points to note are:

• The current Long "Open" Interest in 10-year US treasury bond is greater than SIX Standard Deviations (12 SIGMA)!!!!!!! (The odds of a 6-Sigma event are one in 500 million or 1.37 million years, so it will be exponentially higher for a 12 Sigma event.)
• This level is unprecedented.”

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Notice how “traders” are lowering bond prices just prior to the auctions in order to increase demand for the scheduled debt sales. I have noted this pattern in the U.S. Treasury market for quite a long time. Tomorrow, Japan’s Ministry of Finance will sell $2 trillion yen ($17 billion) of five-year notes. ALSO PLEASE NOTE the same exact thing happened in U.S. Treasuries. The last few days Treasuries have sold-off thereby increasing the yields to make our debt auction more attractive tomorrow when the U.S. Treasury will sell $8 billion in ten-year TIPS. For me it’s comical to hear the U.S. financial press suggest Japanese traders are lowering bond prices to make their debt auction more attractive, but something like that could never happen here in the USA where the invisible hands of the free markets set the prices. Now go back and look at the chart of unprecedented record open interest in bond futures….Six standard deviations from the norm is statistically enormous!!! It tells me some outside entities are using some massive leverage to “influence” our supposedly free markets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/07
Briefing Forecast 310K
Market Expects 312K
Prior 302K

8:30 AM Trade Balance Aug
Briefing Forecast -$66.0B
Market Expects -$66.5B
Prior -$68.0B

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/06
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 3355K

2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

[UpInArms]

20. 8:30 reports in: Surprise!

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE CONTINUING CLAIMS 2.44 MILLION

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $22.0 BLN

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 5,000 TO 2.44 MILLION

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $66.4 BLN

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 313,250

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 4,000 TO 308,000

8:30 AM ET 10/12/06 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP WIDENS 2.7% TO RECORD $69.9 BLN

[UpInArms]

21. Surprise! U.S. trade gap in August sets new record of $69.9 bln

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B58CEC59E%2D2FD4%2D4D4E%2D8B95%2DD6960AAAB93C%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 2.7% in August to a record $69.9 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The widening of the deficit surprised economists. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the deficit to narrow to $66.4 billion from $68.0 billion in July. For the first eight months of the year, the trade deficit widened to $522.8 billion, ahead of last year's record pace of $457 billion. Imports rose faster than exports in August. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $22.0 billion in August, compared with $18.5 billion in the same month last year. The U.S. imported a record $26.7 billion in goods from China in August.

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 4,000 to 308,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD5CCA892%2D11D0%2D4EDD%2D964D%2D6EC07943BD4E%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly in the latest week after falling for two consecutive weeks. The Labor Department said 308,000 people filed unemployment claims the week ending Oct. 7. Continuing unemployment claims rose by 5,000 to 2.44 million, their highest level since Sept. 9. Initial claims came in below economists' estimates of 312,000. Initial claims for the week ending Sept. 30 were revised to 304,000 from 302,000.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices remain under $58 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices edged up Thursday after settling at their lowest level this year in the previous session as market participants awaited the release of a weekly U.S. petroleum supply snapshot.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose 26 cents to $57.85 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell on Thursday by 93 cents to settle at $57.59 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Dec. 19, as doubts grew that there is a consensus within
OPEC for an immediate output cut.

November Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange in London rose 16 cents to $58.81 a barrel.

Since July, the cost of crude oil has plunged by more than 25 percent amid rising global inventories, concerns about slowing economic growth and a milder-than-anticipated hurricane season.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Eco-Kremlin: Russia targets energy giants

Three big foreign-run projects are under fire for violating environmental standards. What's Moscow really after?

MOSCOW – Western firms developing Russia's rich oil and gas fields are facing sweeping allegations of environmental abuses. But critics say the charges are a thinly veiled Kremlin power play to renege on 1990s-era contracts now seen as unfavorable for Russia.

Four key projects, all controlled by foreign companies, are under pressure to hand over shares to a Russian state-owned partner or face potentially crippling financial penalties.

The Russian side, supported by environmental groups, insists that the ecological concerns are real. But experts say the government is leveraging those concerns to give a state-run company control over the projects.

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Last month, Russia's Natural Resource Ministry suspended the environmental operating license for Sakhalin-2, a giant international consortium led by Royal Dutch Shell that has invested $20 billion so far in the venture. Expected to bring liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Sakhalin Island to Asia and the US by 2008, the project received environmental clearance in 2003, but Russian officials now say there are massive violations.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1011/p06s02-woeu.html

[ozymandius]

5. Indonesia revokes Exxon gas deal

Exxon has spent $350m (£189m) exploring the field but is finding the gas costly to extract and difficult to sell.

Indonesia's oil minister has said that state energy firm Pertamina could be given the rights to develop the field.

Exxon insists that its contract to develop the site runs until 2009, and that it has made "significant" progress in finding a buyer for the gas.

Indonesia needs to bring the field online quickly to boost its dwindling gas output, and analysts expect the dispute to be resolved.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6039466.stm

[ozymandius]

6. America's dirty secret: India becomes the gasoline gusher

Sitting on the edge of the water in the Gulf of Kutch on India's western shore is one of America's dirty secrets. A mass of steel pipes and concrete boxes stretches across 13 square miles (33sq km) - a third of the area of Manhattan - which will eventually become the world's largest petrochemical refinery.

The products from the Jamnagar complex are for foreign consumption. When complete, the facility will be able to refine 1.24m barrels of crude a day. Two-fifths of this gasoline will be sent 9,000 miles (15,000km) by sea to America.

-cut-

The company's ambitions in Jamnagar have helped India move from being a net importer to an exporter of refined petroleum products. "We want to make a statement that India can be an industrial giant. Jamnagar is a refinery for the world, based out of India," said Hital Meswani, executive director of Reliance Industries. "In the mid-90s when this project was conceived, no one believed it would work. We were told there was too much capacity, returns were not great and every management consultant we hired told us don't bother."

-cut-

Having built from scratch the world's third-largest refinery complex, stage two in the Reliance plan is to double capacity by 2008. Other companies and nations have woken up to the potential of refining. Saudi Arabia's national oil company, Saudi Aramco, is planning a 400,000-barrel-a-day refinery. Mexico, alarmed by how much crude oil it exports and gasoline it imports, is also planning a refinery capable of processing 250,000 barrels of crude a day.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/india/story/0,,1892584,00.html

[ozymandius]

8. The Peak Oil Crisis: Turning Points

From a peak oil perspective, the last couple of weeks seemed pretty quiet. Oil prices continued to drift down into the $50s amid gloats from peak oil skeptics. The Dow Jones climbed to all-time highs, in part, due to optimism the "oil bubble" had finally burst and there would be lower inflation and lower interest rates ahead. Alaskan oil production returned to normal levels and financial analysts spoke enthusiastically about the "new frontier" of deep-water oil. The geopolitical world was quiet. Iran, Lebanon, Nigeria, and Venezuela— everywhere one looked there were no imminent threats to oil supplies.

-cut-

Currently, the most important oil story is the impending OPEC production cut of 1 million barrels a day (b/d). This plan, however, has been in the works for the last two weeks without an official announcement, thus leading to suggestions that OPEC cannot reach an actual agreement on a production cut. Several OPEC members —Iran, Venezuela, Indonesia, and Nigeria— are already producing well below their quotas. As these countries are straining to maintain production, many doubt they would actually cut exports by an amount necessary to drive up prices.

Other OPEC members are currently above their quotas and could easily afford some temporary revenue loss. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, however, are highly dependent on the US for their security in a very dangerous part of the world. Washington is adamantly opposed to OPEC cutting production at this time as higher gas prices is the last thing the Administration wants to see prior to the mid-term elections.

Thus, current efforts at a quota cut may or may not result in actual production cutbacks and higher prices, at least for the next month. What is interesting in all this is that there seems to be the beginnings of a consensus within OPEC that $60 a barrel is the new price floor to be defended by quota cuts. There are, however, major implications of a $60 a barrel price floor on oil. While $60 oil may sound great to Americans, prices like this effectively make petroleum products unaffordable in many poorer countries. For people living in these countries, the oil age is nearly over.

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=359&Itemid=33

[54anickel]

17. China's Oil Imports Surge to Record High

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061012/china_oil_reserves.html?.v=1

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's oil imports surged to a record high 3.3 million barrels a day in September, the government reported Thursday, as the country recently began filling its newly built strategic oil reserves.

Preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed crude oil imports jumped 24 percent over the same month a year earlier to 13.5 million metric tons (15 million U.S. tons) in September.

That would be an all-time high for any month, beating the 13.2 million tons of crude oil China imported in January, said David Hurd, a Beijing-based oil and gas research analyst at Deutsche Bank.

China recently completed construction of a storage facility in Zhenhai, a city south of Shanghai, the first of four planned strategic oil reserves. Filling of those tanks began in August with a shipment of Russian crude from the Urals, state media reported earlier this week.

China is the world's second largest consumer after the United States and construction of a state-controlled crude oil reserve is viewed as a strategic priority. Until now, Chinese oil companies have held between 10-30 days of oil stocks, but the country as a whole has not kept emergency reserves.

Eventually, Beijing is expected to stockpile up to 100 million barrels of petroleum, or the equivalent of a month's national consumption. The U.S., Japan and other countries have similar reserves.

more...

[ozymandius]

25. New York crude hits near 10-month low

LONDON (AFP) - New York crude oil has hit 57.24 dollars per barrel, a low point last reached on December 19, 2005, amid market scepticism over an
OPEC output cut and before publication of weekly US energy inventories data, dealers said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, slid 35 cents early Thursday to reach the level in electronic deals before the official opening of the US market. It later stood at 57.37 dollars.

New York crude has now shed 27 percent in value since striking a record high 78.40 dollars in mid-July.

In London on Thursday, Brent North Sea crude for November delivery sank 30 cents to 58.35 dollars per barrel in electronic trading, having earlier dropped to 58.16 dollars -- remaining close to 2006 lows.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks seen starting higher on profits, oil

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures inched higher on Thursday, suggesting a stronger opening on Wall Street, as higher-than-expected corporate profits and a pullback in oil prices to the lowest level this year bolstered confidence about corporate profits.

Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. (Nasdaq:COST - news) rose 0.5 percent in European trading after the company said fourth-quarter profit rose, beating its lowered forecast.

A slew of economic data on Thursday, including weekly jobless claims, international trade figures and the Federal Reserve's beige book of economic conditions could provide clues about the health of the economy and direction for interest rates.

more

[ozymandius]

9. AT&T's purchase of BellSouth faces a fight at the FCC

Democrats on the Federal Communications Commission said Wednesday that they would push for significant conditions on AT&T's (T) purchase of BellSouth after the Justice Department cleared the deal with no conditions.

The FCC was scheduled to consider the $78.5 billion deal Thursday, but late Wednesday the agency pulled the item from the agenda and scheduled a commission meeting for Friday for a possible vote on the deal.

The FCC did not say why it was delaying a vote. "We are committed to evaluating merger applications fairly and in a manner consistent with the public interest," agency spokesman Clyde Ensslin said in a statement. "We are continuing to work to complete our AT&T and BellSouth merger review in a timely manner."

-cut-

Michael Copps, the commission's other Democrat, said the "Justice Department has packed its bags and walked out on consumers and small businesses by refusing to impose even a single condition in the largest telecom merger the nation has ever seen." He added, "It's all the more important for the FCC to ensure that consumer interests have a seat at the table."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/telecom/2006-10-11-att-fcc_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA

[ozymandius]

10. Americas: Earnings rattle Wall Street

NEW YORK U.S. stocks fell Wednesday for the first time in three sessions after the third-quarter earnings season opened with disappointing reports from companies including Alcoa, the aluminum maker, and Federal Reserve policy makers raised concern about continuing inflation.

"You've got an economy that seems to be slowing down a bit, and you've got inflation that they're not convinced is completely under control," said Thomas Garcia, head of trading at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico. "Investors were looking for a little bit of language hinting" that central bankers might ease rates at the beginning of next year.

-cut-

Stocks have swung between gains and losses this week amid concern that profit growth is decelerating and that forecasts have been too optimistic.

According to Thomson Financial, earnings are expected to have risen by at least 10 percent for the 13th straight quarter in the July to September period. Still, analysts are reducing profit estimates for U.S. companies.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/11/bloomberg/bxus.php

[54anickel]

11. Appetite for foreign equities growing in US

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b9397d3a-58c5-11db-b70f-0000779e2340.html

US equity investors have shifted a record proportion of their funds into foreign share markets this year as investors chase returns from overseas and emerging markets which have been outstripping those on Wall Street.

Of the $4,800bn in equities held by US mutual fund investors, $811bn, or 17 per cent, sit in funds containing foreign companies, according to AMG Data Services, which monitors mutual fund flows.

"This is the highest percentage of international securities holdings by domestic mutual funds on record," Robert Adler, AMG's president, said yesterday.

It also represents a doubling of this share since August 2000.

AMG data also show that of the $124bn invested so far this year into US equity mutual funds, including exchange traded funds, fully $110bn, or 89 per cent, has gone into funds investing in overseas companies.

more...

[54anickel]

12. European Bonds Are Starting to Curve to Inversion

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=akZSUg80K2ys

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The conundrum that has blurred the U.S. bond market in the past year, with short-term interest rates climbing above longer-term borrowing costs to invert the yield curve, may become a feature of Europe's fixed-income landscape.

For the first time in almost six years, the rate on benchmark euro interest-rate futures contracts has dipped below 10-year bond yields. The levels crossed two weeks ago, measured by the contract closest to settlement and the benchmark German debt security.

Two forces may combine to produce an inverted European yield curve -- and a profit bonanza for traders and investors willing to take the gamble by selling short-dated notes in favor of owning longer-term bonds. That trading strategy has paid off handsomely in the U.S. bond market in the past year.

Rampaging money-supply growth may prompt the European Central Bank to add to the five interest-rate increases it has implemented in the past 10 months, driving its main lending rate above the 3.5 percent level currently anticipated in the futures market as the peak for borrowing costs.

In the bond market, meantime, the prospect of a slowing U.S. economy will restrain yields in the Treasury bond market, which typically set the tone for government debt securities around the world. Higher ECB rates plus stable or declining bond yields could produce a curve inversion in Europe in the coming months.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Price war erupts as Bank of America offers free online stock trades

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/brokerage/2006-10-11-free-trades_x.htm

Bank of America (BAC) stunned the online brokerage industry Wednesday by offering free stock trades to anyone who has $25,000 in a checking, savings or money market account at the bank. That came just days after Ontario, Calif.-based upstart Zecco.com offered free trades to anyone with a $2,500 account.
Online brokers suddenly find themselves under attack in a price war. That's a reversal of the dot-com boom, when online brokers such as TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and E-Trade (ET) stormed Wall Street by offering commissions just a fraction of those charged by big brokers.

And now the likes of E-Trade and Ameritrade could be pressured to come up with their own free-trade offers, says David Trone, analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton. That prospect didn't appear to sit well with shareholders Wednesday, as shares of the online brokers tanked. TD Ameritrade fell 12%, E-Trade slid 9%, and Schwab (SCHW) lost 5%.

Free commissions have been offered before by companies such as Freetrade.com and a unit of American Express (AXP) (now Ameriprise), but with little success. Ameriprise no longer has the offer and added a $4-a-trade fee for those who originally signed up. Freetrade.com, which TD Ameritrade acquired, has been replaced by a $5-a-trade no-frills service. TD Ameritrade found that offering free trades "doesn't gain significant market share," says TD Ameritrade spokeswoman Katrina Becker.

snip>

And the cost of handling trades has plummeted to the point that offering free commissions is doable, says Jeroen Veth, CEO of Zecco.com. Typically, brokers pay just $2 to put a trade through. He says that cost is easily made up in other ways, such as collecting interest on cash in customer accounts or providing fee services, such as options trading. "Is the timing right? I think so," he says.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.07 Change -0.06 (-0.07%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Trade Figures Line Up For US, Canada, Japan

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__Trade_Figures_1160605345949.html

US Trade Balance (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: -$66.7B
Previous: -$68.0B

Outlook: The US trade deficit looks to narrow in August, as higher exports and slowing imports will likely boost the number above July’s all-time lows. Indeed, the vast majority of economists predict that falling oil and natural gas prices will limit the dollar value of energy imports, while increased manufacturers’ orders show signs that outflows will pick up on the month. According to a Bloomberg News report, only of 13 of 65 of analysts surveyed expect tomorrow’s number to match or fall below all-time lows, while the rest hope for moderate gains. Risks to the median prediction remain to the upside, as slowing domestic demand will almost certainly damper purchases of foreign goods. This may actually prove bearish for the US dollar, however, if the slowdown in demand is sharper than expected—thereby worsening outlook on overall US growth.

Previous: The US trade balance unexpectedly fell to a new record-low, as a progressively higher energy bill lifted imports, while exports fell for the first time in 5 months. The $68 billion dollar figure was substantially lower than expected, with median forecasts calling for a $65.5 billion deficit. Analysts at the time claimed that the figure was unlikely to post any substantial improvements, but a more recent moderation in the price of key commodities will likely limit further gains in imports. Likewise significant, a falling US dollar would probably boost international purchases of US goods. We await tomorrow’s release to see if July’s falling export figure was simply an anomaly or the start of a new trend.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. Chavez's Push for UN Council Seat Sets Up a Showdown With U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aHbR19zyxptU&refer=latin_america

snip>

Venezuela is pushing for a seat on the Security Council for the next two years, arguing that its independent voice is needed on the UN's principal policy-making panel. The U.S. is lobbying for Guatemala to get the spot that will go to a Latin American nation in an Oct. 16 vote of the General Assembly.

``They are playing hardball,'' said Mexican Ambassador Enrique Berruga, whose government backs Guatemala. ``Having the Americans support your candidacy is a double-edged sword. But Chavez delivered a polarizing speech, and many believe it would not be a good idea to have them on the Security Council.''

snip>

``The non-permanent members become a leader in their region,'' said Edward Luck, a former UN consultant who runs the Center on International Organization at Columbia University in New York. ``It is a platform for getting up and causing trouble, and now that the U.S. has made it a major struggle, if Venezuela wins it is a slap in the face of the U.S.''

Getting Tough

Diplomats say Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is directing a global lobbying campaign by U.S. envoys in foreign capitals, contending that Venezuela doesn't belong on the council. While the U.S. is keeping the effort discreet to prevent a backlash against Guatemala, it is ``getting tough behind the scenes,'' Peruvian Foreign Minister Jose Garcia Belaunde said.

Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, has picked up support from China, Russia and most Arab nations, among other UN members.

Chavez, 52, whose Sept. 20 speech to the UN General Assembly came a day after Bush addressed the body, called the U.S. ``the greatest threat looking over our planet.'' Asked last week about the speech, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said Chavez's ``conduct demonstrated exactly what we're concerned about.''

more...

[UpInArms]

16. IBM moves key US unit to China

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061012/bs_afp/chinausbusinessitcompanyibm

SHANGHAI (AFP) - Computing giant IBM Corp said it was transferring its chief purchasing operations to China, a move that highlights Asia's growing importance in the global supply chain.

The decision to transfer its chief procurement office from New York to Shenzhen marks the first time the headquarters of a global IBM division has been located outside the US, the company said in a statement on Thursday.

The leading American technology and software group began shifting its Asia-Pacific headquarters from Tokyo to China's commercial hub of Shanghai in 2004, a process it completed earlier this year.

It also has major research, software, hardware and computer services operations in India which make it that nation's sixth largest technology-related employer.

The addition of its global procurement office to Shenzhen, where it has operated for over a decade and many of its 1,850 employees in Asia are based, is aimed at reshaping the company's supply base in the region, IBM said.

...more...[/i[

[UpInArms]

18. US election war of words erupts over economy

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061011/bs_afp/useconomybudget

WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush put the US economy front and centre of crucial elections, lauding new data that showed the budget deficit tumbling to its lowest point since 2002.

Bush's announcement, less than a month before the mid-term congressional elections, sparked angry counter-claims from opposition Democrats who accused his Republican administration of "reckless" economic mismanagement.

The Treasury said the federal budget deficit was trimmed to 248 billion dollars in the 2006 fiscal year ended last month, down 71 billion from the prior year's figure of 319 billion.

Critics argued however that the shortfall was among the largest ever and that Bush had squandered the surplus he inherited.

<snip>

Some critics say the deficit figures are skewed because they include Social Security receipts that are effectively pledged for future retirement costs. If these receipts are excluded, the deficit would be a mammoth 434 billion dollars for the just-ended fiscal year.

...more...



09/29/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86

[54anickel]

24. The good news: the Bush economy (Bwahahaha!!!)

Sorry, I couldn't help myself....

http://blogs.washingtontimes.com/insiderpolitics/?p=632

With all the problems President Bush and the Republicans face, this is as good a time as any to focus on one of their biggest success stories — the American economy.

The economy’s performance isn’t getting the respect it deserves, but just five weeks before the election, it is winning rave notices on Wall Street and from ordinary investors on Main Street.

Consider what’s been happening lately:

snip>

More importantly, it is way, way below the $424 billion deficit that the White House predicted in its February budget.

At this pace, Bush will be way ahead of his promise to slash the deficit in half by the end of his second term. The reason for the deficit’s speedier decline: lower tax rates that led to much stronger economic growth, higher employment, and a modest brake on discretationary spending increases.

These have been rough times for our country, what with the war on terror, disastrous hurricanes, sky-high oil prices, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq against terrorist forces. But the American economy has proven to be resiliant, relentless and fundamentally on healthy ground.

[54anickel]

19. OT - Dear Leader Brings It On

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601010_robert_scheer_dear_leader_brings_it_on/

Well, Bush showed them, didn’t he?

Over the past six years, our “my way or the highway” president blew up a crucial nonproliferation agreement which was keeping North Korea’s plutonium stores under seal, ended bilateral talks with Pyongyang, squashed Japan’s and South Korea’s carefully constructed “sunshine policy,” which was slowly drawing the bizarre Hermit Kingdom back into the light, and then took every opportunity to personally insult the country’s reportedly unstable dictator because it played well politically at home.

If you shun them, they will shape up—this was the essence of President Bush’s non-diplomacy, as it was in regards to Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The result? Cold War-style brinkmanship that has left the United States helpless.

The policy options left are dumb and dumber: Either passively accept Pyongyang’s defiant threats and ability to slip weapons-grade plutonium around the world, or launch an invasion that could spark a devastating attack on Seoul.

Thank you, Mr. President. I feel so much safer now that we have a wannabe cowboy in charge of the free world.

more...

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I just can't take it anymore. I grew up in in Texas and have relatives scattered throughout the west. I come from a long line of cowboys (in fact my brother is al REAL cowboy more days of the year than not). I am tired of thia yah hoo besmirching the good name and memory of cowboys and cowgirls. He isn't even good enough to lick their perfumed footware. Most folks don't remember, but there is a Cowboy Code. Read it and you'll see how far from grace our CIC (chimp in charge)has fallen.

Cowboy Code (by Gene Autry)

The Cowboy must never shoot first, hit a smaller man, or take unfair advantage.

He must never go back on his word, or a trust confided in him.

He must always tell the truth.

He must be gentle with children, the elderly, and animals.

He must not advocate or possess racially or religiously intolerant ideas.

He must help people in distress.

He must be a good worker.

He must keep himself clean in thought, speech, action, and personal habits.

He must respect women, parents, and his nations laws.

The Cowboy is a patriot.

And with all of the current events that are happening, I would like to suggest that our theme for today be....."Back in the Saddle Again".

Happy Trails, happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

30. That brings back memories.

I remember when Gene Autry died. I was on the radio then and hosting a music show. Word came of Mr. Autry's passing late one afternoon. I had just barely enough time before the end of my shift to run down the hall and pull our CD with Erich Kunzel and the Cincinnati Pops providing the background music to Gene Autry's narrative of the Cowboy's Code.

He was an old man when the recording was made. One could tell he meant every word of it. What a class act.

[AnneD]

32. Gene Autry was ....

a hero to me too. So was Roy Rogers, Dale Evans and Clayton Moore. I count myself lucky to have had them put before me as role models and actually meet three of the four. They took their job seriously, on or off the screen. They never turned a kid down. They lived long, happy, and productive lives.

My best memory....my 6 year old daughter, dressed up as a cowgirl with her stick horse and six shooter singing 'Back in the Saddle Again' at the elementary talent show. Every other girl there was singing Selena and dressed to match. She was a class act too.

The Cowboy (Cowgirl) Code are good rules to live by and have served to guide many in our family.

Thanks for sharing that memory Ozy.

[54anickel]

23. Transmeta sues Intel over chip design patents

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/technology/15738818.htm

Setting up a David-vs.-Goliath legal battle, Transmeta sued Intel on Wednesday, claiming the chip giant infringes on its patents for low-power chip designs.

The suit claims that a number of Intel's microprocessors -- including its current flagship Core 2 Duo -- violate 10 of Transmeta's patents for designing power-efficient chips. Transmeta filed the lawsuit in federal court in Wilmington, Del.

If Transmeta is successful, it could collect royalties and damages from Intel on products that have generated more than $100 billion in revenue to date. The lawsuit also gives Intel a legal headache in addition to the antitrust lawsuit filed in June 2005 by Sunnyvale-based Advanced Micro Devices.

The legal brawl is a departure in strategy for Santa Clara-based Transmeta, which has avoided litigation. But the company's executives said they knew this might happen when they changed their strategy from making chips to licensing their technology about 18 months ago.

``We did not take this step precipitously and did so only after long discussions with Intel,'' said Art Swift, chief executive of Transmeta.

Chuck Mulloy, a spokesman for Intel in Santa Clara, said the company had not yet reviewed the lawsuit and would not comment.

more...

[ozymandius]

26. 10:44

Dow 11,917.60 Up 65.47 (0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,325.80 Up 17.53 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,356.48 Up 6.53 (0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7680% Down 0.0160

NYSE Volume 575,005,000
Nasdaq Volume 470,322,000

10:30 am : Major averages are extending their reach to the upside as sellers remain a reluctant bunch. To wit, the Consumer Staples has pared its losses since the last update and is now adding to this morning's leadership. Consumer Discretionary, though, is now among the most influential areas behind the market's momentum. Aside from a 2.4% surge in McDonald's (MCD 42.25 +1.00), the sector is getting a lift from Harley-Davidson (HOG 63.70 +0.55), which topped analysts' expectations on record revenue and EPS and is adding 20 mln shares to its stock buyback plan. Yum! Brands (YUM 57.50 +2.93) reported a 20% rise in Q3 earnings, also supportive of the sector's expectation to turn in 24% profit growth, and raised its full-year outlook. DJ30 +61.56 NASDAQ +16.23 SP500 +6.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 667/1956/346 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 669/2195/216 mln

[Tace]

28. The Masses Have Never Thirsted For Truth (Mogambo)

(I posted some of this article in SMW late yesterday. I figure I'll repost in today's thread so more people will see it)

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

snip

-- If you want a real piece of Federal Reserve stupidity, then tune in to Marketwatch.com to read what Fed chief Ben Bernanke said in a speech about the lack of household savings in America: "Unfortunately, many years of concentrated attention on this issue by policymakers and economists have failed to uncover a silver bullet for increasing household saving." Hahaha! What a moron!

I have a Hot Mogambo Tip (HMT) for this Bernanke birdbrain: How about not constantly increasing money and credit, which makes the monetary aggregates go up, which makes prices go up, which strains the family budget so that they have to spend more and more (and thus can save less and less) just to stay at a standard-of-living standstill? How about trying that for a change, you Fed morons?

And as if to underscore my fear, consumers now owe so much money that they are even having a hard time going deeper into debt! As astonishing as that sounds, [e-mail] email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it reports that, "consumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in August, compared with a 4.3 percent rate of increase in July. Borrowing in the category that includes credit cards rose at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in August, following a gain of 4.7 percent in July." Nevertheless, "Total consumer debt rose $4.99 billion at an annual rate to an all-time high of $2.35 trillion in August."

As proof, all you have to do is stand around my living room for a few minutes and listen to the family whining about how they are hungry and cold because I can't afford food or electricity this week since I went into debt to get a new set of golf clubs. They say they can't understand my "selfishness," and my "conceit," and blah blah blah. In response, I patiently tell them that I did it because, as Russ Winter's xanga.com quotes Gustave Le Bon from his 1896 book "The Crowd," I am sure that my poor golf scores have nothing to do with me, a lack of talent or "complete inability to learn," which is the stupid opinion of so many stupid golf teachers. It is all just a matter of having (pay attention here) the correct equipment, as the salesman assured me with this awesome and convincing sincerity. The actual quote was, "The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim."

more

http://www.worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=331&Itemid=1

[ozymandius]

29. 1:19 numbers and blather

Dow 11,916.72 Up 64.59 (0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,326.74 Up 18.47 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,357.57 Up 7.62 (0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7600% Down 0.0240
NYSE Volume 1,352,066,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,048,624,000

1:00 pm : As if Costco Wholesale (COST 54.01 +3.94) couldn't climb any further, the stock continues to make fresh session highs after recently forecasting 15-19% profit growth for fiscal 2007 and is among the biggest gainers (+7.9%) on the Nasdaq as well as the best performing S&P constituent. Nonetheless, the major averages remain in a holding pattern to see if today's Beige Book will offer the ideal perspective on economic conditions that the bulls continue to price into equities.DJ30 +70.15 NASDAQ +17.29 SP500 +7.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 810/2091/958 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 759/2391/724 mln

12:30 pm : Market is off its morning highs entering the lunch-hour session, but is still holding onto the bulk of its gains. In fact, it appears stocks are settling into a relatively tight trading range until the 2:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book, which is the day's last scheduled piece of economic data. The report is used by policy makers to formulate their views on business conditions compiled from the 12 regional Fed banks and will be looked at for clues as to how lower energy prices are impacting the economy.DJ30 +71.30 NASDAQ +17.01 SP500 +7.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 811/2052/858 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 731/2388/650 mln

[AnneD]

31. Costco....

is building a new store close to my work. They were so shrewed to put it there. This area is affluent and has lots of cutsie little shops and a few grocery store, but there just is not a larger store in the area. Due to all the office spaces and homes, there is not that much available land for a big store. They bought our school administration building (paying handsomely and allowing the district to pay for our new building outright with cash to spare). That store will make money hand over fist and the folks around here can't wait til it opens. Wall Street hates Costco because the Costco CEO shows up most CEO's up for the greedy, incompetent, nitwits they are-and he does it at a fraction of their salary AND treats his employees decently in the process. And they promote from within too. Costco is run the way a business should.

[ozymandius]

33. just before the close

Dow 11,945.78 Up 93.65 (0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,345.01 Up 36.74 (1.59%)
S&P 500 1,363.02 Up 13.07 (0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7780% Down 0.0060
NYSE Volume 2,364,040,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,938,311,000

3:30 pm : The market continues to hit new highs as buyers remain in total control going into the final stretch. Aside from strong earnings reports and more proof the Fed will again leave rates unchanged when it meets in a couple of weeks adding to an already bullish tone, it appears as though those that thought otherwise are fleeing to cover their short positions, exacerbating the market's broad-based move to the upside. At its intraday high just minutes ago, the Dow was within 40 points of hitting the 12,000 mark. DJ30 +107.11 NASDAQ +35.85 SP500 +13.69 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 803/2195/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 746/2512/1.19 bln

[ozymandius]

34. sweeping the floor and turning out the lights

Dow 11,947.70 Up 95.57 (0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,346.18 Up 37.91 (1.64%)
S&P 500 1,362.83 Up 12.88 (0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7780% Down 0.0060
NYSE Volume 2,514,365,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,056,768,000

4:20 pm : Stocks rallied across the board Thursday as investors embraced a much improved earnings picture and more evidence the economy is on track for the Fed's much-desired soft landing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another new record and came within striking distance of hitting 12,000 while the Nasdaq turned in an even stronger performance (+1.6%).

With regard to the tech-heavy Composite's impressive performance, it was actually a discounter -- Costco Wholesale (COST 53.93 +3.86) -- that provided the biggest spark of bargain hunting interest on this year's poorest performing index among the majors. Costco soared nearly 8% after it topped Wall Street's expectations and forecasted 15-19% profit growth for fiscal 2007.

Also keeping the Consumer Staples sector in focus was PepsiCo (PEP 62.92 -0.94). That company posted a 71% jump in Q3 earnings and boosted its full-year outlook. Its encouraging report reinforced our Moderately Bullish market view and kept the S&P 500 on pace for a 13th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth. However, with PepsiCo up 9.2% in Q3 and hitting an all-time high on September 27th in anticipation of a strong quarter, the stock sold off as did a lot of other defensive names as investors rotated into more growth-oriented areas.

To wit, Technology was the most influential leader of the 10 sectors closing to the upside. Renewed enthusiasm for beaten-down chip stocks coupled with continued momentum in the Nasdaq's most influential component and the fifth most heavily-weighted constituent on the S&P 500 -- Microsoft (MSFT 28.22 +0.68) -- were among the biggest reasons behind broad-based strength on all three indices.

Also helping the Dow eclipse the psychological 11,900 barrier for the first time ever was McDonald's (MCD 42.39 +1.14), a suggested holding in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio. The stock surged nearly 3% to a multi-year high after boosting its Q3 EPS outlook following better than expected Sep. same-store sales. Lending further credence behind our recent upgrade of the Consumer Discretionary sector to Market Weight was a better than expected Q3 report and raised FY06 guidance from Yum! Brands (YUM 59.07 +4.50), which turned in the day's best performance (+8.3%) on the S&P 500.

Finally, if a handful of better than expected earnings news across a wide array of industry groups wasn't enough to keep the Q3 rally intact, the Fed's Beige Book provided the ideal perspective on economic conditions that has been priced into equities over the last couple of months. Even amid "widespread cooling" in the housing market, the roadmap to the next Fed meeting (Oct. 24-25) showed that most districts reported "few signs of increased pricing pressure," while it was also noted that "wage growth around the nation was generally modest," "consumer spending increased more quickly" and that "manufacturing activity remained generally strong in most Districts." DJ30 +95.57 NASDAQ +37.91 SP500 +12.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 715/2329/2.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 689/2581/1.55 bln