WP: Allen and Webb in Virtual Tie, Post Poll Says

[mcg]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/14/AR2006101401128.html

" Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) and Democratic challenger James Webb are virtually tied in a race that could shift the balance of power in Washington and which reinforces the differences between Northern Virginia and the rest of the commonwealth, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Allen gets 49 percent, compared with 47 percent for Webb, within the 3 percentage point margin of error for the poll conducted over three days last week. With few respondents saying they are undecided and most seemingly locked in for their candidate, the poll indicates that the candidates' strategies for turning out supporters will be vital and that changes in the national political climate could tilt the outcome. ... "

[SoCalDem]

1. Personally I cannot see how Allen is within 15 points

I actually see the "close" part of the poll as a cover for when he "wins".. :puke:
hope I'm wrong

[Eric J in MN]

2. All the companies which poll Virginians have been bribed?

I care about election fraud, but I don't think these polls of the VA US Senate race are a fraud.

[w4rma]

10. Allen has money, name recognition and incumbency.

This race is within Webb's reach now. It's time for the final sprint to the finish line. It will be a photo finish.

[aggiesal]

4. I agree,

How can this guy make such racist remarks and not only is he within 15%, but he's ahead by 2%.
This means Allen will win by 6%-7%

[LostinVA]

12. How the heck does this mean Allen will win by 6%???

Fuzzy math or expectations? I'm not being snarky, I want to know.

The governor's race was exactly the same, and Kaine won. There are alot of "undecideds," which I'm banking on.

[aggiesal]

21. It's the e-voting machines.

I feel that the e-voting machines are capable of flipping votes at least 6%.
I've seen as much as 8% on seats the GOP really wants.
So being 2% down, with a 6% flip, will be about a 7-8% loss.

I only hope I'm wrong, but this does happen.

[TheWraith]

29. It's Virginia.

The people who object to racist commentary were already voting for the other guy.

[Mojambo]

3. What kind of machines do they use in VA?

Because this is the kind of race that's going to be stolen.

[lynne]

7. Depends on what precinct you're in -

- my precinct uses a toggle type machine - where you flip a lever for your choice - that has been in use for the past 30 + years. They began introducing electronic/computer machines in the past few years but don't have enough to go around. I prefer the toggle type.

[LostinVA]

13. WE have the toggle type, but I know people who use the "ATM" type

[Eric J in MN]

5. "The Northern Va. Factor"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/14/AR2006101401128_3.html

"Webb would win handily if the election took place only in Northern Virginia, claiming 56 percent of the vote there to Allen's 42 percent, the poll shows. But Allen would win easily in the rest of the state, besting Webb by almost 10 points."

========

If he loses, is there a Republican-held House seat from Northern Virginia which James Webb could run for in 2008?

[LostinVA]

14. That's bull

I don't live in NOVA, and live within a huge blue area. There are lots of blue and purple areas outside of NOVA. And, there are lots of RED areas in NOVA, too. I'm getting tired of the stereotype that everyone who doesn't live by DC are a bunch of Freepers. That's far from the truth. It's not "North vs. South," is rural vs. urban, educated vs. uneducated -- just like everywhere else.

I also disagree that NOVA is the key: the Navy vote in the east is the key.\, imo.

[Eurobabe]

18. Yeah, this totally discounts C'ville and Richmond

very large blue voting blocs. There are other areas close to C'ville that we saw flip to purple in '04. Don't fail to look outside VA suburbs!!

[LostinVA]

20. The two areas I was specifically thinking of

And, some of the redder counties outside of these areas went purple the last two election cycles... Fluvanna went less red, for example... and parts of Greene.

All these people on these threads who say how red Richmond is...? Maybe Henrico County, but not Richmond!

I wish people would remember the Civil War was a loooong time ago, and the demographics of Virginia (and also NC) have really changed the last 20 years -- and keep on changing more every year.

[spooky3]

24. I agree the Post should not lump all of VA outside NoVA together

and that rural vs. urban is the biggest factor accounting for redness vs. blueness. You are also right that some parts of NoVA are more purple or red (e.g., Spotsylvania, although I think this is changing as more and more people move there and it becomes more urban). However, there is a huge size effect that I think WaPo was trying, awkwardly, to point out. Charlottesville (with a population of less than 200,000 in the metro area) is much smaller than NoVA, which has more than two million residents (I think--DC has only about 600K, Maryland suburbs around 1.5-2 mill; WV much smaller; metro area total 5.2 mill in mid 2005, which may not include the outermost NoVA communities), is growing more rapidly than anywhere else in the state IIRC, and even the Loudoun County people thought to fit the Rethug exurb types have voted blue in the last two elections. By sheer numbers NoVA is overwhelming the other areas of VA. Also, I believe Richmond and the Tidewater area, which are more urban, are also more purple/red than NoVA is. For example, VA Beach, which is the largest community in Tidewater, is pretty red, even though other parts of Tidewater are blue. While Tidewater is also growing, it is still smaller than NoVA, and I believe Richmond is considerably smaller. There are just tons of people in NoVA with no sign of stopping, and I think pundits continue to be surprised with the outer NoVA suburbs poll more blue than they expect.

Population stats by metro area:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_metropolitan_areas

It makes you wonder why the journalists or pollsters aren't reporting the results more accurately or examining the #s more analytically. Laziness?

[Eurobabe]

31. IIRC, Bush barely won precincts in Albemarle Co. in 2004

that had been considered safe Red. Rapidly changing demographics + people gettin' wifty to these nutbags. Virginia is a changing state...let's hope that Webb is the new Senator come November!! Unfortunately, my absentee ballot this cycle is for OHIO, working on getting that state in the Blue column, and removing the red tide. Next cycle I may be in VA again. :) :hi:

[Stinky The Clown]

28. I agree with you .......

The Navy vote in Tidewater and the more general military vote elsewhere. I have a feeling they're going to favor Webb over Allen.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mcg]

8. In Richmond people still talk of the "war of northern aggression",

that's what they call the Civil War. I heard this first-hand
and thought "they must be kidding". But no, they weren't, and
they made a point to bring it up because us yankees were down
there on business. A lot of Virginia is the deep south.
There's still a 'cold civil war' going on.

[LostinVA]

16. I know huge amounts of people from Richmond, and none talk that way

And, they are FROM the Richmond area. NOne of them are Freepers either. Even the more consecrative ones aren't racist.

Virginia isn't anywhere's near the Deep South. And, there is not a "cold civil war" going on among the populace. There's a group of whackjobs who are still living it, and they are the same people whop live up North and in the WEst who act and think that way. People, it is NOT a "southern" thing anymore -- it is a mindset. God. Most of VA is definitely NOT the South. I saw Charlottesville North, another poster said in another thread Roanoke NOrth. Good lord.

I grew up in NJ, and where I grew up was/is the most Freeper, racist, disgusting place I've ever livedd... and I've lived all over NC and in Central VA since 1982.

Good grief. The misinformation on this board is bonkers.

[brentspeak]

22. D.U.M.B. post

[LetsThink]

9. Allen Has Money....... M. O. N. E. Y. --- Actually, He Has Stock.....

Options that are worth..... someone has reported they are worth $1.1 million, contrary to Allen's assertion that they are worthless. Did Bloomberg value them? Thought I had read this somewhere.

By the way, how can anyone vote for someone who doesn't know his workplace rules after several years on the job? And..... those tax attack ads he's running on FOX - total fabrication that are engineered to look just like a regular news piece. It's even hard to read the Allen campaign line at the bottom of the ad... 'Course one could argue they fit right in with the rest of Fox News slant anyway......

How can the general public even consider someone who tends to skirt along the legal/factual boundaries like that on everything? You don't really know what the man stands for or what he'll actually do, if he is voted another four years in the Senate.

[LostinVA]

17. How could women, gays, blacks, blue collar people vote for Bush?

Same reasons.

[Alexander]

25. Senate terms are 6 years. nt

[LostinVA]

11. It's as bad as the governor's race -- my nerves are shredded

[Fluffdaddy]

15. After November 2004 I no longer trust Polls

[Eurobabe]

19. Who's got the MO, and whose got Diebold?

That's the million dollar question.

[spooky3]

23. k&r for good news

[goclark]

26. The fix is in ~ notice

how all of a sudden, there are "close" races when two weeks ago they were not even close.

[IndianaGreen]

27. Allen can count on the votes of the "Jesus Camp" voters

They vote GOP because that's what they have been brainwashed into believing Jesus wants them to do.

[fujiyama]

30. Anyone know

what the polls were saying about the VA gov. race last year? I know they were extremely close as well - showing the repuke with a slight lead for part of the way near the end.

This is great news. Allen was leading by a lot earlier. Part of VA is reaaaally braindead, but the northern part is pretty well educated. Hopefully Warner can campaign for Webb. After all, he's not running for president now.

[Eurobabe]

32. Oh there are many areas of VA that are NOT braindead

Please don't think that NOVA is the only area that thinks. Thank you! :hi:

[fujiyama]

33. Don't worry

There are smart and decent people everywhere, and I realize that. Hell, I'll say that even some of the braindead people are decent in some ways (but smart in terms of being informed, likely not).

However, I'll admit that sometimes I make some broad generalizations based on voting demographics, but I really do have to hand it to those progressive folks that stick it through extreme RW areas.

[Zynx]

34. We started to pull a little ahead right about now.

I think we were up a point or two at this point. Kaine built a three point lead by the end in most polls and then did better than that on election day.

[stepnw1f]

35. That Many Bigots in Virginia

Wow! Somehow I seriously doubt it...