Spin alert:: AP:Unemployment Rate Falls, Payrolls Grow

[FreeStateDemocrat]

Unemployment Rate Falls to 5-Year Low of 4.4 Percent, Payrolls Grow by 92,000

WASHINGTON Nov 3, 2006 (AP)— The unemployment rate dropped to a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October as employers added 92,000 new jobs flashing a picture of a strong labor market as the midterm elections draw near.

The latest report, released Friday by the Labor Department, showed that the civilian unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point from 4.6 percent in September. It marked the third month in a row that the politically prominent jobless rate declined.

The tally of new jobs added to the economy in October fell short of economists expectations for an increase of around 125,000 positions, however. Nonetheless, job gains in both August and September turned out to be much stronger than previously estimated and that took a lot of the sting out of October's less-than-expected payroll performance. (Cont'd)


This is a very mixed bag of indicators and BS stats if read deep enough but it is being played up very positively in the lead and headline. Odd factor is that the accompanying photo shows a sign for employment at a McDonald's as an indication of the great employment opportunities in our "robust" economy:

A hiring sign is posted at a McDonald's restaurant in Mountain View, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2006.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2626219&page=1

[requiem99]

1. This is the biggest bullshit ever. Sure, there are jobs: WALMART, MCDONALDS, AND GAS STATIONS

Thats about it. I went back to being a student I was so sick of being unemployed in Bush's economy. I'm living day to day on student loans right now, but that's not going to last forever. I will probably end up having to work at Walmart, even though I have 3 years of professional experience in my field (computer science) as well as professional certification. There just aren't good jobs available.

[humbled_opinion]

9. Networking and Computers took a big hit under Bush...

Maybe you should look into a contractor position with EDS. They got a huge Navy contract for the NMCI. They employ all over the U.S. check them out http://www.eds.com/sites/nmci/

[requiem99]

11. Are you insane? I'm never EVER working for the government.

Not even Democrat controlled. Never. Unless we see some widespread reform and this country takes on governance I am proud to support.

[humbled_opinion]

12. Well..

They are a civilian contractor on a government bid contract. Somebody got to do it right? and I figured since you said you were using up your loan money you might really need the help...If you would rather sit home then look for work whether it is government job or not then you my friend are part of the problem not the solution.

[requiem99]

16. Someone's got to do it, but that someone isn't me.

Even McDonalds and Walmart are better than federal work. Just imagine an atheist working as a pastor in a christian church and you'll get the idea of where I stand. Right now I think the federal government is a runaway monster of special interests, corruption, and pork, and I'd rather be poor with a clean conscience than be rich and a part of it.

[jayctravis]

30. ...In other news, chocolate rations will be increased 30%.

[acmejack]

2. Stand by for revised numbers the eighth of November...

[NOLADEM]

3. The sign in the window is all you need to see to know what these assholes call progress

Working at McDonalds is for high school kids, those with Downs Syndrome, and Ghetto moms. It is NOT a career.

Trying to push the expectations down a bit, eh pigs?

I would sooner kill myself than work at McDonalds.

If this is progress, we are FUCKED.

[humbled_opinion]

13. You are another part of the problem....

Lots of hard working people at MCdonalds et,al fast food restaraunts don't dengrade them just because you wouldn't do the job. There are also management positions in those career fields...I also take exception to your handicap rude remark...

I wouldn't shovel shit for half the politicians in Washington on either both side of the aisle but we have many here that would jump at the chance.

[William Bloode]

26. Now thats an asinine position.

Many folks have had to work for McDonald's, some even made a decent career of it. Not everyone will, or wants to go to college, others it's the best they can do. To degrade them is just a pretty low shot.

I would not work there either. I in fact did everything i could in my life so i would not have to take a job as such, even with my 8th grade education, and criminal record. But i'll be damned if i would ever degrade someone who had the will to do something i could not stomach.

Also i would like to say thank you from all out hispanic brothers and sisters here who work these jobs for your fine opinion of them.

[Bitwit1234]

4. New Jobs

Wonder if the trickle down will start a flood and by Monday we will have 10 million new jobs......well the UNEXPECTED drop in unemployment...anything is possible.

Sure would like to send quite a few republicans to the unemployment line, those squatting in bush's administration and congress.

[corporatemedia]

5. The first investigation should be: The BS from the BLS. n/t

[Robbien]

6. What lying liars

They expected jobs of 125,000 but got jobs of 92,000!

Oh that's okay, they lie, the numbers for the previous two months were great.

Bull.

[tritsofme]

8. Yes, because it makes sense to fudge numbers

For previous months, but not the current one. :eyes:

[TheWatcher]

21. Pooh-pooh it all you want

The government has been fudging the numbers not on just these statistics, but most of them for quite awhile now.

But if living in your Rose-Colored World of Blind Trust in State Sponsored Propaganda helps you sleep at night, then I suppose we should all just fall in line for your sake, and partake in the false comfort of "they don't do things like that."

[tritsofme]

25. If I can fudge numbers wholesale

Wouldn't it just be a lot easier and politically savvy to fudge the headline number?

[0rganism]

20. isn't 125k less than the minimum for keeping up with work-force growth?

I don't recall exactly what the "magic number" was, but I think it was about 140,000 per month.

[TahitiNut]

23. See post #10

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2594682&mesg_id=2594749

[cap]

36. i think it's more like 300K/month..

[EFerrari]

7. Thank you, Authorized Propaganda!

:hi:

[TahitiNut]

10. FACT: Employment has NEVER increased above an average rate since 2000!

The despicable, lying scum in the media and Bushoilini regime have peddled their Pollyanna myths over and over and over. The fact of the matter is that every claim of 'improvement' in employment is a LIE: In absolutely no month during Bush/Cheney has employment increased at an average or above rate as seen over the last 50 years!

The fact of the matter is that the number of people employed rises with the population. The most conservative measure of an average increase during the post-WW2 years is about 2.0%. Absolutely every month's change in employment since Bush/Cheney took office has been below average!

Every goddamned time these lying bastards blow aritficial sunshine up our skirts, they claim increases only in comparison to the abysmal levels of employment in the period between 2001 and 2003 - depths of economic disenfranchisement unheard of since the Great Depression!

LYING to American workers is adding insult to injury!




Even a caveman should be able to CLEARLY see the decimation of the working class in the US ... and this doesn't even include the rape of employee compensation levels!





Please note that GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT has not suffered the rape and decimation of private emplyment, and indeed has almost kept pace with the increasing population being served. After all, even if we turn our teachers into baby-sitters for the parents who can't survive unless they work for two incomes, that means the number of teachers (government employees!) must keep pace with population.


:grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

[primavera]

14. It's all about the numbers you pick

I was starled to find that one of the most commonly used measures of unemployment was the number of applying for the first time for unemployment benefits. Suddenly, you don't have to count all of the unemployed people who have been laid off more than once or whose benefit periods have elapsed; those people are no longer considered part of the official unemployment rate, but are rather considered to have voluntarily departed from the work force. Convenient way of counting, don't you think? Really clarifies just how full of shit statistics are unless you know how they're defining their terms.

[TahitiNut]

17. "U3" is the most common measure of unemployment.

HOWEVER ... people who are doing occasional day labor or part time jobs (often near minimym wage) are NOT regarded as 'unemployed'. Nor are those who haven't "actively looked for work" in the prior 3-4 weeks of the survey. The underemployed and those who've exhausted (what they regard as) all their option in looking for work just aren't counted. These are 'throwaway' people in a fascist state. The 'cheap labor' corporatists are happy to exploit economic refugees ("undocumented migrants") from Mexico and other oppressive countries ... and, in so doing, import economic oppression.

[CAcyclist]

34. Right, but when Clinton was in office, they didn't use this method

They only started using this method when Reagan was president and Bush Sr, continued it. Clinton had them include the unemployed who were still actively looking for a job even if their benefits had run out. As soon as Bush Jr., got into office, this reversed back to the Reagan/Bush way of counting the unemployed.

[Jack Rabbit]

15. !!

KRCG, Jefferson City, Missouri

[louis-t]

18. 92,000, eh? Still at a net jobs loss.

Not even close to keeping pace with jobs needed.

[Duer 157099]

19. You know what the relevent statistic would be?

The total dollar amount of all paychecks received divided by the population of the country.

Period.

That should be an easy number to figure out.

[TahitiNut]

24. Here ...

[Duer 157099]

29. depends if "per capita" refers to "workers"

not clear to me if this is just analysis of the work force. If so, it's still not the relevent statistic that would address *real* unemployment/underemployment

[TahitiNut]

31. Yes. It does. It's people on W-2's ... workers (and executives, too.)

In this case, 'capita' essentially means "head" or "person". Thus, "per capita" means on average per individual.

[Duer 157099]

33. Let me rephrase

(never mind)

[electprogdems]

22. i so sick of this shit

The other day i was up at the local storefront mall, tons of help wanted signs - most stating things like "competitive wage!!!". You know what that meant, it meant they pay .30 cents above minimum wage. Which works out to $16,000 yearly - woo fucking wooo !!!!!

[mnhtnbb]

28. And no benefits

[mnhtnbb]

27. They have been making up 'revised' numbers for months.

[Yavin4]

32. Here's My $.02 Explanation

The jobs that are being created pay so little that a sizeable number of workers are indifferent between working and not working. Thus, you get a huge number of "discouraged workers" who don't show up in the UE stats.

Let's say you're unemployed and the only jobs in your area pay $5.15 an hour. There few places in America where anyone could rent an apartment on that little money, so why work at all?

[Up2Late]

38. That's part of it, see my post below for more PLUS...

...one thing that a lot of people have forgotten is, when Clinton was President, the Congress frequently Extended the State Unemployment benefits of the people in the "Long-time Unemployed" category, several times!

But when the Congress, under Bush, had the chance to do the same thing in 2003 (which would have taken effect in 2004) they declined to do so.

So, why does that matter? Well, for me here in Georgia (and I think it works this way in most other states), when my 20 weeks of Unemployment ran out, Georgia stopped reporting me as Unemployed! That don't mean I wasn't, but as far as the State and Fed bean-counters were concerned, the unemployed in Georgia just dropped by one.

Btw, most states have longer unemployment benefits than Georgia.

[Yavin4]

40. Technically, The UE Rate Is Not Tied to Benefits...However...

Not extending benefits can lead to more discouraged workers or workers who will take temp jobs, and VOILA! a lower UE rate.

The UE rate is based on a telephone survey, and if you worked a temp within two weeks of the survey, even if said temp job is one day, then you are counted as employed. Or, if the available jobs pay so little that there's really no incentive to work and you stop looking, then you are counted as out of the labor pool entirely.


Now, let's say they extend benefits. Then, people would hold out for better paying jobs and look more aggressively. More people looking, then a higher UE rate. Also, they're less likely to take a temp job, so again, they'd show up in the UE rate.

[Up2Late]

35. Marketplace (APM radio show) just said that the 4.4% is based on...

...(these are their words) "...the highly volatile telephone "household survey" which also reported 437,000 new jobs last month..." as compared to the 92,000, and she added, "...but only someone running for office believes those numbers..."

This is all BS "fuzzy Math" as * liked to say while running against Al Gore.

I also heard NPR report today (but they only mentioned this part once so far) that the "Upward Revisions" for September and August happened when they added in "The Self Employed!!!"

Hell, they missed me then, by that standard, I'm self-employed! Problem is, there's no money in it.

[cap]

37. people know the difference between 4.4% under Clinton vs 4.4 under Bush

even visually...


Everyone was flush... There were hiring signs everywhere. Signing bonuses galore. Recruiters dialing a company's exchange and then randomly hitting extensions to try and get anyone.

Americans were petting and cooing over gobs of stuff in the mall. People were working hard and too much because they thought they could really make it. Hell, I was almost driven off the road a number of times because someone was behind the wheel falling asleep coming home from working their tail off. No problem with work ethic then.

Want ad pages 1/4" inch thick. How about that for a measure of unemployment?

[Up2Late]

39. Yup, I remember all that too, plus, here in Atlanta we have a Free Weekly...

...called Creative Loafing that has Want Ads. Back in the 1980's and 1990's the CL Want Ads were 10 to 20 pages for Full-time jobs, now all of the Job Want Ads are less than 2 pages.