WP: Democrats, on the Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content//article/2006/11/04/AR2006110401177.html/countdown.html

Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.

In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. Republicans virtually concede 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.

The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need to gain six seats to take control of that chamber. A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.

In governors' races, Democrats are likely to emerge with the majority for the first time in 12 years. Five states are almost certain to switch parties, including the key battlegrounds of New York, Massachusetts and Ohio. Four races are too close to call, but only one -- in Wisconsin -- is held by a Democrat.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six percentage point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections.

[Pierzin]

1. OMG, that is so awesome! I was so close to losing it!!

I listened to Mike Malloy s friday show and I thought of a thread I saw asking, how close to losing it are you?? - if Dems don't take a majority?

AMericans are stupid, of that there can be no doubt, but come on, this rubber stamp congress is completely insane!

[Zambero]

2. Great news from Idaho (ID-01)

In a new poll Larry Grant(D) has pulled ahead of Bill Sali (NR = Nutcase Republican) by 4 percentage points. When "soft" support is factored out, Grant's lead grows to 6%. A week ago, Sali led by 2%, so the trend sure looks good. In this poll 25% are still undecided, which is a large number this late in a campaign. One theory is that most of these are Republicans who rarely if ever vote for a Democrat but are none too happy about voting for Sali, who is way off the rails both personally and politically. There could be a whole lot of GOP abstentions, which indirectly helps Grant.

The Otter-Brady Governor's race is also looking good. Democrat Brady has now opened up a 5-point lead over Otter. Again, up until this point, Otter had a slight lead. If this momentum holds, deep red Idaho will be turming a shade of purple!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/3/02834/5942

[kurth]

3. I talked to a RW neighbor today

His exact words: "I voted for the little jerk twice, he's such a disappointment. I'm not going to waste my time anymore."

[fearnobush]

4. Montana Senate: Tester (D) 50% Burns (R) 46%

November 3, 2006

Montana offers another Senate race where a Republican who had been closing the gap in the final weeks may be falling a bit short. With only a few days left in the election, Republican Senator Conrad Burns now trails Democrat Jon Tester 50% to 46% (see crosstabs). <http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/November%202006/MontanaSenate.htm>

[Clarkie1]

12. And more great news in Montana stats...

"Forty-eight percent (48%) are certain they will vote for Tester, 43% are certain they'll pick Burns."

I still say it's down to Virgina and Missouri...if we win those two, we win the senate (and I'm feeling good about our chances in both).

[AlCzervik]

5. Ohio--"The killing fields" thats priceless.

[MGD]

17. If history tells us anything, it tells us that, as Ohio goes, so to does the country tend to go.

It's gonna be a blood bath in the HOR. I'm not convinced we'll take the Senate though. Impeachment proceedings originate in the HOR however should it come to that.

[Bumblebee]

6. The poll itself is actually total BS. 43% approval? Who are they kidding?

That's why it's also only 6% advantage on Congress races. Very different from both the NYT and Newsweek.

[bilgewaterbill]

8. This whole poll sucks! Look at the questions. I wish I hadn't. nt

[Bumblebee]

9. I think they know themselves it's an outlier. That's why they are not spinning

it as a jump in his popularity and their headline is much grimmer than their poll. They have lemons like that quite often...

[MeDeMax]

7. not sure which Ohio house they are talking about ...

Ohio, the swing state that assured Bush's second-term victory, has turned into a Republican killing field.
Republicans face the loss of the governorship and a Senate seat, and five GOP House districts are in danger of
switching. Republicans fear the loss of other statewide races and at least one house of the state legislature.

Ohio house of reps would be great, but we dont have any poll data on it.

But I love to hear our great state being referred to as a "Republican killing field".

[lfairban]

10. Dems could take 3 out of 4

A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.

http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2006/11/03/cq_1776.html

Dems ahead in Missouri, Virginia and Montana. There is maybe an even chance they could take all three.

[knight_of_the_star]

11. Montana's ours

Last time I checked, esp. when you cross-reference it with the other polls, Montana is most likely going into our column. That means of Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee, we only need two out of the three to win the Senate outright.

Currently we have 44. Santorum, DeWine, and Chafee are out so we will be at 47. With Montana it's 48, so if we get 2 out of 3 we're at 50 even, over the top thanks to Bernie Sanders. If we get all three then Lieberman ceases to be a potential problem if he wins.

[Clarkie1]

14. I'll take Virginia and Missouri.

I'm feeling confident about those two these days.

[aggiesal]

19. I was going to mention ...

50 Dems
48 Repubs
2 Independents.

With Bernie Sanders independent swinging towards (D),
and Lieberman swinging towards (R) on war issues, and (D) on social issues.

I hate the fact that Lieberman is getting in over Lamont.
Lieberman could become an outright tool of the Repubs because
it was their money that would get him elected.

[Clarkie1]

13. I believe we will take all three.

[Kablooie]

15. I can hardly see what kind of reaction Bush has the next day.

Organ grinder Rove will certainly cook up some fancy dancing for chimpy to do.

[MGD]

16. It will be interesting to see how he takes the news, won't it?

I'll bet Nexium is in short supply in D.C. these days.

[lovuian]

18. The only way they will win is if they cheat or Marshall Law

from another 9/11 event...

The American's are pretty ticked off