The G.O.P. also faces a stark drop-off in support from evangelicals and men, according
to a new survey.
Sunday, Nov. 05, 2006
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME
shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big
advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 - their ability to motivate supporters to go
out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic
about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of
Republicans respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel
that way.
Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark drop off in support among what is usually a
core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of
people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight
percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls
indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush.
A third factor running against the GOP is an improvement in men's attitude towards
the Democrats. Males provided much of the Bush victory margin in 2004: the President
55% of the male vote while John Kerry won 44%, according to exit polls. For the 2006
midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting
Republican candidates and 47%. Women in the TIME poll support Democratic candidates
by a lopsided 59% to 33% for Republicans.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1555024,00.html