(New CNN) Poll: Democrats hold 58-38% edge over likely congressional voters

[bluestateguy]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/06/monday/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The percentage of likely voters who plan to vote for Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections increased in the past week, and those voters supporting Democrats also seem less likely to change their minds before casting ballots, according to a CNN poll conducted over the weekend.

Democrats hold a 58 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning, compared to the 53 percent to 42 percent advantage reflected in the poll a week ago. Pollsters asked people who identified themselves as being likely to vote which party's candidate they would you vote for in their congressional district if the election were being held today.

On this question, the poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In the so-called "poll of polls," which averages the results of five national surveys, the Democrats have a 53 percent to 41 percent margin over the Republicans.

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[ruggerson]

1. Good news

this should be all over cable news this AM

[GOPBasher]

2. Holy crap that's awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought they were closing the gap. Please, please, please let this be true.

[oldtime dfl_er]

3. The "closing the gap" bs is being spread

in anticipation of certain races being stolen. Dontcha think?

[ruggerson]

4. That's why this needs to get play

a 20 point spread is hardly closing the gap :)

[Teaser]

8. works for us, though

"closing the gap" prevents us from getting complacent.

[dchill]

32. Yeah, I think it....

and I suspect it. And I pretty much expected it.

[cautiouslywaiting]

5. That is good news

But let's hope that it doesn't make voters complacent. We only win if we get people to the polls.

[xyboymil]

6. YES!! Great to hear!..............

[Jawja]

7. But, but, but

I thought the GOP was closing the gap? :shrug:

[CANDO]

9. So where is ABC's numbers coming from?

Last night on the evening news they were saying the race is narrowing and within 8 points if I remember correctly. ABC must really be in the tank for Bushco.

[mistertrickster]

18. Yup, that's what NPR kept saying all day yesterday. Even had a Pew

guy on talking about Kerry's gaffe hurting dems.

They're on message, as always.

[THUNDER HANDS]

10. polls schmolls

what matters is the on-the-ground field operations of both parties.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

11. Why did

Stephanapolus on ABC say that the race is tightening and it's just an 8% spread ? For now I trust CNN.

[Beetwasher]

12. The ABC and Pew Polls WERE BULLSHIT and PURPOSELY SKEWED

The internals of those two polls were totally fucked, with more Repubs sampled than Dems. I can't believe it was accidental either.

[David__77]

13. Pew equally sampled Democrats and Republicans.

That's probably really off in the current period, but it should out of accuracy be noted that previous polls showing a bigger lead did the same thing with partisan composition. Polls are inherently "all over the place" The "scientific" nature of them is very limited. Taking an average, weighting for obvious weaknesses, is the best way. Doing so, Democrats do seem to enjoy a more than decent lead that has not been enjoyed since at least 1992.

[grytpype]

17. They say they changed the LV model because Repugs are getting more likely to turn out.

Which caused the numbers to shift in the Repug direction. I don't think there was really any change in public opinion toward the Repugs.

[mistertrickster]

19. Ah ha . . . trying to predict who will vote. Like trying to predict which

race horse will win.

Not scientific.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. THIS IS WHAT I WANT TO HEAR!!!

[whirlygigspin]

15. Poll: Democrats hold 58-38% edge over likely congressional voters

can someone go post this in freeperland, I would but im allergic

[jillan]

16. I was beginning to think that the GOP found a way

to rig the polls.
To set the stage for the voting machines.

phew!

[AIJ Alom]

20. oops ! So much for the GOP closing the gap. The only gap

I see them closing is reality: Democratic controlled Congress and a resurgence in oversight of an administration gone astray.

[mvd]

21. Great to see!

Looks like Rasmussen is the only poll to show any bump for the Repukes/Bush after the Saddam verdict - so far, I'm breathing a sigh of relief. I wasn't completely convinced that people wouldn't be that stupid.

[VegasWolf]

22. That's no sweat for Diebold to fix. Check out this video based on the work

of the Princeton CS guys.

http://diebold.cf.huffingtonpost.com/DieboldElections/Diebold.html

[0rganism]

24. It might be too big for anything BUT a Diebold "fix"

At 20 points, voter suppression tactics, saturation attack ads, fundy GOTV rallies, and poor urban precinct infrastructure upkeep aren't going to swing it. The GOP has to bit-shift the bean counting to win this one.

[cosmicdot]

26. hopefully ...

but, keep in mind Ohio 2005

swings of 25%-35% over night were made to defeat election reforms which were overwhelmly expected to pass by a poll known for accuracy; who would expect on one initiative for 25% undecideds to all vote against the measure?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brad-friedman/the-staggeringly-impossib_b_10589.html

hopefully, CNN is placing this poll info on another page other than its "CNN's Wire" World/Europe page

As encouraged as I may want to be, I remember the mood on election day in 2004: Kerry was winning, and winning big. Throughout the day, the news was that Kerry was winning and winning big (which he was; which he did; just the results didn't match reality).

It's hard not to be anxious. As a social security person, I'm extremely worried.

[William Bloode]

23. Fuckin A right!

Wondeful to hear after all the "it's getting closer" shit from yesterday. I love it! :woohoo:

[kestrel91316]

25. Oh, my.

:wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow:

[DeepModem Mom]

27. CNN Poll: Americans favor Democrats on the issues

Poll: Americans favor Democrats on the issues

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A majority of Americans said issues such as the Iraq war, the economy and terrorism would head in the right direction if the Democrats won control of Congress on Tuesday, according to a CNN poll released Monday.

A majority, 58 percent, said that a Democratic Congress would move the economy in the right direction, compared to 43 percent who said a Republican Congress would help the economy, according to the telephone poll of 1,008 adult Americans, which was carried out Friday through Sunday by Opinion Research Corp.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said a Democratic Congress would move the Iraq war in the right direction, compared to 34 percent who said a Republican Congress would do the same.

Fifty-five percent said a Democratic Congress would move the country in the right direction on the issue of terrorism, compared to 47 percent who said that a GOP Congress would do the right thing on terrorism.

On the question of taxes, Democrats bested Republicans 49 percent to 37 percent when those surveyed were asked who would do a better job....

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/06/poll.congress/index.html

[Ignacio Upton]

28. Was part of this taken on Sunday?

If so, then maybe we can gauge the Saddam verdict better.

[DeepModem Mom]

29. The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday. nt

[NOLADEM]

30. Stories like this show that our failure to constantly hold Congress and the WH is leadership failure

Americans agree with us on the issues. The failure of our party and party leadership to effectively communicate that fact is so very sad.

[W.E.B. Du Bois]

31. The Average of Several Polls Indicates Dems are up by 11%

Check the average here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/?poll_id=22