(RW) Montealegre: "We are going to the second round!" (Nicaragua elections)

[IndianaGreen]

Facts: No new vote totals have been posted since Monday morning. The vote count is frozen with only 14% of the ballots counted, according to the following links:

La Prensa

http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2006/noviembre/05/noticias/portada/

Or 40%, according to El Nuevo Diario

http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/

The rightwing candidate, US-backed Montealegre, is now saying that there is going to be a runoff:

Montealegre: "Vamos a segunda vuelta"

El candidato de la derechista Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense (ALN), Eduardo Montealegre, aseguró hace unos minutos que habrá una segunda vuelta en contra del Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional y que no existe un ganador según el conteo rápido proporcionado por un organismo de observación electoral que no identificó.

http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2006/noviembre/05/noticias/ultimahora/154545.shtml

My translation:

Montealegre: "We are going to the second round!"

The candidate of the rightist Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), Eduardo Montealegre, confirmed a few minutes ago that there is going to be a second round against the National Sandinista Liberation Front, that there is no winner by the quick count accoridng to an unindentified member of an electoral observer organization.

[David in Canada]

1. I have 62% of precincts reporting...

From the Consejo Supremo Electoral (CSE; Supreme Electoral Council).

Link here: http://www.elecciones2006.net.ni/escrutinio/general_p.html

This seems to be the most up-to-the-minute results site on the Internet.

It seems that Mr. Ortega has possibly peaked with his strongholds being mostly in.

Right now the results are:

Ortega: ~ 39%
Montealegre: ~ 31%

I think a run-off is not out of the question.

Combined, the votes for Mssrs. Montealegre and Rizo are ~ 54%. IF, IF, IF Mr. Ortega doesn't secure the votes necessary for a first-round victory, he is TOAST in the run-off.

While many Nicaraguans are not right-wing, many have bad memories of the Ortega era. The FSLN would likely garner more support with a fresh face as the future presidential nominee.

[IndianaGreen]

2. BBC is reporting on Tuesday that a runoff is a possibility

Last Updated: Tuesday, 7 November 2006, 01:46 GMT

Nicaragua poll points to Ortega

Nicaragua's former leader, Daniel Ortega, has a clear lead in the country's presidential election.

The one-time revolutionary has 38.7%, eight points ahead of his conservative rival Eduardo Montealegre, results from 61% of polling stations show.

Washington has warned that Nicaragua could lose American aid if Mr Ortega - a US foe in the 1980s - is elected.

Mr Ortega needs to win 40% of votes, or 35% and a five-point margin, to win outright and avoid a second round.

<snip>

Mr Montealegre dismissed the partial results, saying he would face Mr Ortega in a run-off.

"No-one has won here," he said. "We are going to a second round."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6117704.stm

[Casablanca]

6. A runoff is now out of the question.

Ortega is now at 40.04% of the vote according to this link: http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2006/noviembre/05/noticias/portada/

Felicidades a le nueva Presidente Ortega!

[arcos]

7. No it is not...

Check your link, it is from November the 5th... only 14% of the vote was in at that time. Although Ortega is now down to 38.6% with 61% in, he is still over 5% ahead of Montealegre, so for now he seems to be President elect. However, Montealegre is only 2.65% away from forcing a runoff... this is getting unlikely considering nearly 2 thirds of the votes have been counted, but statistically it is still possible. Lets hope not, because otherwise he will certainly lose in the runoff.

http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2006/noviembre/07/noticias/portada/

[arcos]

8. The FSLN will never allow that as long as Ortega is alive...

They even kicked out Herty Lewites, an extremely popular former mayor of Managua, because he wanted to challenge Ortega for the nomination.

[Peace Patriot]

3. Mexico redux. There needs to be some serious investigation into why

rightwing voters seem to come out of the woodwork, at the last minute, and turn things around in any elections that Bushites have their dirty fingers in, including our own.

It's not because they have to work, is it?

[IndianaGreen]

4. Many of the tactics used by GOP in Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004

to suppress votes and alter the vote count, we saw used in Mexico and now in Nicaragua. The Bush regime has used the National Endowment for Democracy to funnel money to the Calderon campaign in Mexico, and $18 million dollars to the Sandinista opposition in Nicaragua, including Montealegre.

Lucky for Mexicans and Nicaraguans, the US military is bogged down in Iraq, being decimated in fact, so Bush no longer has the luxury of having troops at his disposal to send to Latin America to put down popular rebellions.

[arcos]

5. It has been frozen at 62% for nearly a day...

http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2006/noviembre/07/noticias/portada/

Ortega: 38.59%
Montealegre: 30.94%
Rizo: 22.93%

[Robbien]

9. That is getting to be standard, a freeze in counts then the RW wins

This will be the third or fourth time this has happened in Latin America.