STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 13

[ozymandius]

Monday November 13, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 798 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2147 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1853 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1814
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 10, 2006

Dow... 12,108.43 +5.13 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,389.72 +13.71 (+0.58%)
S&P 500... 1,380.90 +2.57 (+0.19%)
Gold future... 630.10 -6.70 (-1.06%)
30-Year Bond 4.69% -0.04 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.59% -0.05 (-1.01%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Another Look at Dow Theory and Cycles

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Briefing Forecast -$49.0B
Market Expects -$47.0B
Prior -$47.4B

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise at start of new week

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices rose Monday on expectations of higher demand and
OPEC production cuts.

Light sweet crude was up 12 cents at $59.71 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. December Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange was up 24 cents at $59.95 a barrel.

Oil prices have tumbled from a July high above $78 a barrel, trading in a range of $57-$61 over the past five weeks.

-cut-

Still, the IEA also forecast a 2.6 percent jump in fourth-quarter global energy demand, citing high consumption in the United States. The agency noted U.S. consumption was being compared with figures when the impact of Hurricane Katrina and mild weather curbed demand a year ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Oil down 1 percent, stuck in six-week range

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell one percent on Monday after an early rally toward $60 ran out of steam and prices returned to the middle of a six-week trading range.

-cut-

"There's nothing really driving the market, so we may be hovering around $60 until the U.S. stock numbers on Wednesday," said Steve Rowles, analyst at Hong Kong-based CFC Seymour. "$60 seems to be where
OPEC wants the price."

Oil gained just 0.6 percent over last week, touching a two-week high of $61.33 before the International Energy Agency's monthly report of a huge build in third-quarter stocks and reduced demand for OPEC oil sparked profit-taking on Friday.

The adviser to 26 industrialized nations said stockpiles in top consumer nations filled at a rate of 1.15 million barrels per day (bpd), the biggest third-quarter rise since 1991, after demand in the first nine months grew more slowly than expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061113/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_2

[ozymandius]

5. Anadarko Selling Gulf of Mexico Discovery

HOUSTON — Anadarko Petroleum Corp., one of the nation's largest independent energy exploration and production companies, said late Sunday it will sell its Genghis Khan discovery in the Gulf of Mexico for $1.35 billion to owners of the adjacent Shenzi field.

The Shenzi group includes BHP Billiton Ltd., Hess Corp. and Repsol YPF SA.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4330173.html

[ozymandius]

18. Alaska governor's pipeline plan halted

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - -- A judge barred Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski from bypassing the legislature to sign a deal for a natural gas pipeline with oil companies before leaving office next month.

Murkowski, whose term comes to an end Dec. 4, threatened last month to sign a deal with ConocoPhillips (Charts), BP PLC (Charts) and Exxon Mobil (Charts) for a pipeline project to cost more than $20 billion without legislative approval because he believes that Alaska needs to act quickly.

In a ruling issued late Thursday, state Superior Court Judge Niesje Steinkruger sided with the state legislature and said the Republican governor would violate state law if he unilaterally executes a contract with the oil companies.

-cut-

Further, the lawmakers made clear, according to the judge, that the oil and gas tax changes and other policy changes in the proposed contract would require legislative approval.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/11/news/economy/alaska.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006111112

[ozymandius]

6. China's foreign trade volume hits new high

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Monday the country's foreign trade in the first ten months rose 24.1 percent year-on-year to hit 1.425 trillion U.S. dollars, surpassing the volume for the whole of 2005.

MOC figures show the value of export and import increase 26.8 percent and 20.9 percent to 779.29 and 645.66 billion U.S. dollars respectively, leaving a trade surplus of 133.63 billion U.S. dollars.

Previous MOC reports forecast a 2006 trade surplus of more than 150 billion U.S. dollars, a record.

The report noted the difference in the growth rate for imports and exports had narrowed this year.

http://english.people.com.cn/200611/13/eng20061113_321065.html

[Ghost Dog]

28. Economic decline in Asia next year feared

http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/14/d61114050664.htm
Afp, Hong Kong

Asia's regional economy could see a period of contraction next year with a currency crisis, a widening wealth gap, rising protectionism and bird flu posing longer-term threats, a study by a regional think-tank warned Monday.

Based on a survey of opinion leaders and the views of a panel of experts, the Pacific Economic Co-operation Council forecasts regional growth of 5 percent this year slowing to 4.3 percent next year.

The bulk of the decline is expected to be linked to the contraction of the United States' mighty economy, where demand for Asia-produced products is due too weaken.

...

While the report says Japan's once faltering economy was back on the up and looking likely to stay that way, China was becoming a concern as its booming economy threatened to overheat and a decline in American demand for its goods posed the possibility of a hard landing.

Economic growth and globalisation, the report says, has planted the seeds of possible strife in the near-term as wealth disparities increase political tensions throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

Also, it warns, energy security and the increasing scarcity of resources such as water -- with 300 million people in China with no access to potable water -- are becoming hot topics that the region is going to have to get to grips with.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

29. What Global Economic Slowdown?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2006/db20061113_446448.htm?campaign_id=rss_as
France and Japan may have hit some rough patches, but the global economy still looks plenty solid heading into 2007

As far as economic news goes, Nov. 10 was a pretty rough day. On that day, both France and Japan put out reports that showed much more softness in their economies than experts had been forecasting. France, the Eurozone's second-biggest economy after Germany, reported that its economic growth had ground to a halt in the third quarter, down from 1.2% in the second quarter. The abrupt slowdown prompted economists at Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Commerzbank (CRZBY), and the Royal Bank of Scotland all to slice their estimates for European growth.

Halfway around the world, Japan chimed in with its own bad news. The Japanese government reported that core machinery orders fell 7.4% in September, instead of rising by 2.5% or so as the markets had been expecting. It's the first decline in two months and raises questions about a possible downturn in capital expenditure in the months ahead. Another disturbing sign: Japan's household spending in September dropped a whopping 6% from the previous year—the ninth straight month of declines and the biggest fall in nearly five years. Consumer-confidence surveys in the past two quarters have shown a growing pessimism among the public at large.

The reports raise some serious questions: How bad is this going to get? And are we headed for a global economic slowdown? The short answer: The global economy overall is still plenty healthy, despite softness in a few regions.
Oil-Price Relief

China remains a key engine for growth, with economic expansion expected at 10% in 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. And for every disappointment, there has been a positive surprise, such as the 26% GDP growth expected in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan.

This year looks like it will finish up with the world as a whole growing faster than its long-term trend—about 3.9%, estimates Global Insight, a Lexington (Mass.)-based economic forecaster. Next year will be a bit slower, but only a bit. Global Insight is looking for world GDP growth of 3.3%. That's what it calls a "soft landing."

Why is the global economy still looking solid? The drop in oil prices, from the high $70s last summer to around $60 a barrel now, is a big factor. Another crucial factor is sound management of the economy by the world's central banks. The Federal Reserve and its counterparts kept inflation in check even when oil prices were shooting up, so they don't need to take drastic action to chill their economies in order to avoid runaway prices.

/ oh yeah...

[ozymandius]

7. Billionaires set sights on L.A. Times

NOV. 12 1:31 P.M. ET Like a train wreck or a car accident, when rich people do battle, everybody stops to watch.

Billionaires Ronald Burkle, Eli Broad and David Geffen haven't taken off the gloves but all signs point to them fighting for ownership of their troubled hometown newspaper, the Los Angeles Times. The fortunes of the Times, the nation's fourth-largest daily newspaper, are being watched closely by a newspaper industry beset by sales, staffing cutbacks and circulation drops.

-cut-

The Tribune's ownership of the Times has been rocky. Disputes between the paper's leaders and its corporate owners over costs and profits has led to the dismissal of two Times publishers and two editors. The latest to leave was editor Dean Baquet, who quit last week.

Tribune signaled its willingness to sell all or part of the company in September after being pressured by several large shareholders -- among them the Chandler family that sold the Times to Tribune for $6.5 billion -- angered by its lagging stock price and sagging circulation.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8LBMH5O0.htm

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.20 Change +0.32 (+0.38%)

Dollar Dives On Diversification Discussion

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_Dives_On_Diversification_Discussion_1163396238663.html

None of the key drivers in last week’s trade were economic in nature. The Democrats surprise sweep of Congress on Tuesday kicked of the anti-dollar rally, but the event that really pushed it into high gear was the off the hand comment by PBOC Chief Zhou that the central bank was considering “lots of options” regarding its inventory of 1 Trillion of dollar reserves. Talk of possible move by Chinese into the euro spurred the EUR/USD to trade through the 1.2900 figure for the first time since August but the pair could not hold that level for long.

On the economic front consumer credit contracted sharply to the worst level since 1994 indicating that the US consumer is clearly retrenching right before the critical upcoming Christmas shopping season. On the bright side, the Trade deficit improved marginally but as Business week so presciently noted, “Sometime next year—perhaps around Christmas 2007, if current trends continue—the U.S. will hit a milestone. For the first time in recent memory, the cost of imported goods and services will exceed federal revenues. In other words, Americans will soon pay more to foreigners than they do to their national government.”

All the more reason why this week’s TICS data which will be released on Thursday will be crucial in determining the direction of near term trade. Last month TICS printed at $116 Billion producing a surplus far in excess of that necessary to offset the deficit. If the trend persists the EUR/USD rally will likely be capped as the structural concerns will tabled for another month. If however, the flow of funds dries up, dollar woes could just be starting. Prior to TICs , Retail Sales will set the stage on Wednesday. Market is already negative looking for -0.4% print, so any upside surprise could create a short term boost for the greenback. – BS

...more...

US Assets Falter After PBoC Comments

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/US_Assets_Falter_After_PBoC_1163206630558.html

As an empty economic calendar laid in wait for the US markets open, the usually inactive overnight sessions were given the opportunity to drive treasury futures and the dollar on comments from the People’s Bank of China. Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said at a two day conference in Frankfurt that China will continue with plans to diversify the nation’s reserves out of US dollars and other assets. Though he said they were not currently selling the greenback, the reassurance of such intentions stoked fear in US security holders. Such concern is expected as the PBoC’s more than $1 trillion reserves are the largest in the world. Zhou went on to stress that the diversification would be a gradual process as ‘dumping’ dollars would stress the economy of one of their largest trade partners and cause large losses on their own books as they would be unloading in a selling market. However, the fact that these remarks are not unique was another reason the US overnight session was readily reacting to the news. Russia has announced it would reduce its holdings of US dollars from 70 percent to an estimated 40 percent, Italy has said it would trim its 85 percent down to 63 percent and many others are following the trend. With all of the ‘plans’ to unload dollar denominated assets, both treasury futures and the dollar crosses turned lower until more pressing news could take the yoke.

...more...

[ozymandius]

13. Greenscam's Fed sought to hide the dollar's collapse

by adopting as policy the discontinuation of the M3 money supply reports.

Regulars here know this already. I'm just saying so that everyone knows what a hack Greenscam was for 18 years as Fed chief - and continues to be.

[ozymandius]

9. KB Home Ousts Its Chief and 2 Others

The longtime chief executive of KB Home, one of the nation’s largest home builders, resigned under pressure on Sunday night and agreed to return $13 million in profit from backdated stock options, the company said.

Two other KB Home executives were also ousted, including the head of human resources, whom the company said worked with Bruce E. Karatz, the company’s chairman and chief executive, to set the dates for stock option grants.

Mr. Karatz had served the company for 34 years and was credited with turning the once troubled company into a home building powerhouse. His resignation came after an internal investigation found that stock options were dated incorrectly. The company, which is based in Los Angeles, said that it was cooperating with investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies.

-cut-

The review found that company had misreported several unspecified grant dates for options issued between 1998 and 2005. Mr. Karatz will repay the company about $13 million in profit he would not have made had options been dated correctly. Under the terms of his employment contract, he could be entitled to at least $61.9 million in severance alone, but the terms of his departure are still under negotiation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/13/business/13home.html?ref=business

[Maeve]

10. Note the cartoon---some of you might not know radfringe

But she kept this thread going before ozy and before me--the basic layout, from * Countdown to daily cartoon and term "piehole alert"--all hers. (calling the updates "blather" was my idea, btw) And yeah, it really used to be true that whenever Dubya talked, the markets tanked...so he stopped talking during market hours!

Salute! :patriot:

[ozymandius]

14. Hail Maeve queen of Connaught!

Good to see you here again. :toast:

It should also be known that radfringe is seeking a regular publication circuit for her cartoons. I wish her success for marketing her talents.

[AnneD]

19. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Always good to know one's history. I love this thread. It keeps me up to date in regards to economic trends.

I have never decided it Dubya was 1)evil incarnate 2)trusting but naive or 3)stupid beyond belief. I have settled on number 3. He just got 'thumped' in the general election. They had all the photo ops and he talked about all the bipartisan and he was going to 'kiss and make up in a new spirit of bipartisanship'. So what is his first action......try to cram Bolton down the Senates throat. Less than 48 hrs after he got his ass handed to him and he is still acting like a stupid beyond belief spoiled brat. This was the guy they could only get in on a recess nomination. What a putz. I hope he has plenty of red markers-he just THINKS being president was hard work.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[radfringe]

23. got me blushing...

thanks all - I do read and follow this thread.. internet-police at work make it difficult to do more than pop in and out, occassionally throwing in my 2-cents...

and a shamless plug for my toons: http://www.comicssherpa.com/site/feature?uc_comic=cscwc

[UpInArms]

11. KB Home Ousts Its Chief and 2 Others - Illegal Backdating of Options

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/13/business/13home.html?ex=1321074000&en=091298cc0214ff5d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The longtime chief executive of KB Home, one of the nation’s largest home builders, resigned under pressure on Sunday night and agreed to return $13 million in profit from backdated stock options, the company said.

Two other KB Home executives were also ousted, including the head of human resources, whom the company said worked with Bruce E. Karatz, the company’s chairman and chief executive, to set the dates for stock option grants.

Mr. Karatz had served the company for 34 years and was credited with turning the once troubled company into a home building powerhouse. His resignation came after an internal investigation found that stock options were dated incorrectly. The company, which is based in Los Angeles, said that it was cooperating with investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies.

Mr. Karatz is the latest chief executive to be toppled by the so-called options backdating scandal, which also brought about the removal last month of William W. McGuire of the UnitedHealth Group.

Wall Street observers had surmised that Dr. McGuire and Mr. Karatz would be able to withstand the scrutiny of an internal investigation because of their impressive track records, but the fact that both have stepped aside may put increasing pressure on corporate boards to take a hard look at their leaders.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. That Giant Sucking Sound: Company Ross Perot Built Is Now Hiring, in Mexico

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/13/business/worldbusiness/13perot.html?ei=5088&en=cd818cea5401664c&ex=1321074000&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1163422817-oD1W0mpM1F/lO5gV91HMQw

MEXICO CITY, Nov. 12 — Remember Ross Perot’s “giant sucking sound”?

The Texas billionaire and onetime presidential candidate railed against the North American Free Trade Agreement in the early 1990s, arguing that it would create a “giant sucking sound” of good American jobs pulled to low-wage Mexico.

But things change. Last week, Mr. Perot’s Texas company announced that it was hiring — in Mexico.

The Perot Systems Corporation, which manages information technology for companies, is setting up a technology center in Guadalajara where it expects to employ 270 engineers by the middle of next year.

Neither Mr. Perot, who is now chairman emeritus of the company he founded in 1988, nor his son, Ross Perot Jr., the company’s chairman, was on hand for the announcement in Guadalajara Thursday. But a company spokesman, Joe McNamara, said that lower pay for engineers was only one of several reasons Perot Systems decided to set up in Mexico.

“Guadalajara is a fast-developing technology center in Mexico,” he said. “There’s room to grow.” The company is also looking at other places in Mexico to set up new operations, he said. “Mexico is a very important strategic location for us,” he said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

15. Stock Futures Up at Start of Week

LONDON (AP) -- U.S. stock futures edged higher on Monday, with election news receding into the background and inflation back in the spotlight ahead of key data later this week.

Dow Jones futures were recently up 12 points, S&P 500 futures were unchanged and Nasdaq futures rose 2 points.

-cut-

Of stocks in focus, there's a handful of companies unveiling quarterly results, including Tyson Foods and Dick's Sporting Goods.

KB Home late Friday said CEO Bruce Karatz is leaving after the conclusion of a stock-option grant price probe. He'll repay the company $13 million.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061113/wall_street.html?.v=2

[ozymandius]

16. Speaker Pelosi, We've Got BIG Economic Problems, Pt. 3 Recession

bonddad's diary

A Slowing Economy
To top off the problems of a fiscal situation in tatters and an international trade deficit, the US economy is clearly slowing possibly moving into a recession.

GDP growth has decreased from over 5% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the third to 1.6% in the third. While there is great debate within the economic community regarding what will happen in the coming quarters, consider the following.

Merrill Lynch and the Federal Reserve are both saying the possibility of a recession are increasing:

The U.S. economy is ``on a knife's edge,'' and growth may slump to less than a 2 percent pace next year unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. economists.

``Our recession-risk indicator is now at 51 percent odds for an actual economic downturn in the coming year,'' writes David A. Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, in a note today. The last time the indicator registered that high was in the recession year 2001. product growth, adjusted for inflation, compared with Rosenberg's forecast of 2 percent growth in 2007 (the blue line). The 10-year trend in real GDP growth is shown in green.

In addition, we have the following problems:

The housing market - which subtracted a full percentage point from 3rd quarter growth - is still falling. Housing starts have dropped 25% from their high in 2005, new home prices year over year changes are currently negative, existing home prices year over year changes are falling fast, inventory levels are shy high and undercounted, residential construction has fallen five months straight, and the US consumer is already in debt up to his eyeballs -- household debt over 90% of GDP and over 120% of disposable income.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/13/75447/315

[ozymandius]

17. Mr. Paulson goes to Washington

(Fortune Magazine) -- When President Bush confessed that he was stunned by the GOP's "thumpin' " in the midterm elections, he also announced his intention to stay in the domestic policy game - with Treasury Secretary Henry M. "Hank" Paulson Jr. as his running back. Now, with the Democrats set to take control of Congress, Paulson is positioned to emerge as the most important Republican economic figure in Washington. The former Goldman Sachs (Charts) CEO, initially reluctant to accept the job, has brought to the office in a mere four months an aura of gravitas that eluded his two predecessors. Just as important, he has cultivated ties to leading Democrats - something sorely lacking inside the Bush White House. Paulson also provides the deepest relationship with official China of any American in public life, giving him a unique vantage for shaping the global economic landscape and aiding on critical foreign policy concerns, such as stopping a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Still, Washington isn't Wall Street - and it remains an open question whether this dealmaker, known for his rigid discipline and follow-through, can break through the partisan stalemate and make Bush's last two years in office count for something. At the top of Paulson's to-do list: a renewed charge to reform Social Security and Medicare, which officials describe as a massive unfunded liability. But in a wide-ranging interview with FORTUNE two days after the election, Paulson also revealed his negotiating strategy with China, his plans to block Democratic tax hikes, and his intention to revisit corporate-governance standards. An avid conservationist, Paulson is active in administration policies to halt "America's addiction to oil," as President Bush has put it, by promoting alternative energy.

Managing editor Andy Serwer and Washington bureau chief Nina Easton sat down with Paulson in his 19th-century Treasury Department suite overlooking the White House. On the wall behind Paulson hung a pair of Impressionist paintings from the department's collection; in front, a massive portrait of Alexander Hamilton. Paulson has infused this sedate setting with signs of his adventure-filled personal life: photos recording his travels to exotic locales (and his odd passion for snakes), and a wall filled with wildlife shots taken by his wife, Wendy, who once led bird walks in New York City's Central Park. As the 6-foot-1 Paulson leaned into his answers, it was clear that the intensity behind his climb from gridiron star at Dartmouth to an $800 million man hasn't cooled.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/11/magazines/fortune/paulson.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2006111208

[54anickel]

22. I dunno Ozy, I'm not liking what he said on corporate-governance standards.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it - we'll have to see what he has to say next Monday.

snip>

What's your view on Sarbanes-Oxley, and what sort of reforms do you think are needed in the capital markets?

There are a number of committees that are studying this, and we'll look carefully at what any committee says. But I've been spending a fair amount of time here at Treasury and with the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - with Ben Bernanke, Chris Cox, Reuben Jeffery - thinking through these issues. I will be making some remarks on this topic in New York on the Monday before Thanksgiving.

Care to preview those remarks for us?

What I would say to you is that the capital markets are a cornerstone of our economic success in this country. They play an important role in job creation and prosperity. In terms of business scandals, you would have to go back a long time - maybe to the Depression - to find a comparable period. We had a great deal of fundamental reform and regulation: Sarbanes-Oxley, the listing rules. Virtually all of it was well intentioned and based upon sound principles, and in totality I think it went a long way toward helping restore confidence in the markets.

I care about making sure we have markets that are strong but that regulation is not overly burdensome. I don't believe we're going to need new legislation. I think that the things we want to accomplish can be accomplished through implementing the existing regulation differently.

And then I think there are some other things, which are much more fundamental and difficult, that we're going to have to think about and deal with over a much longer period of time, but that are very important and don't lend themselves to easy answers.



On edit, I had to add this part of the last paragraph...Kissinger quote about who controls the money comes to mind again

...the more integrated any country is into the global economic system, the higher the cost of any disruption, political tension, military tension, or whatever. So China has a great stake in continued economic growth around the world, and instability is the enemy of that growth.

[ozymandius]

20. Markets are open for bidness.

9:42
Dow 12,108.35 Down 0.08 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,396.85 Up 7.13 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,381.84 Up 0.94 (0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.601% Up 0.015
NYSE Volume 152,041,000
Nasdaq Volume 125,547,000

[54anickel]

21. 10 Stocks Rising on Unusually High Volume

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/volume111306_article1.html

Investors often spend countless hours scouring charts with a dozen technical indicators, or they dig through piles of financial statements in search of the next big stock market winner.
What’s the alternative? Get back to the basics and let the market tell you which stocks big investors are buying.

A stock moving higher on a big increase in trading volume is often a sign of institutional demand. It’s the professional buying from the big guns such as mutual funds, banks and insurance companies that really drives up a stock’s price. These players are so big that it may take them weeks or months to build a position in a stock. So it’s important to pay attention when a stock begins rising in expanding volume.

IBD’s volume percent change calculation alerts investors to unusual increases in trading volume. It doesn’t look at the absolute number of shares traded, but the percentage increase relative to a stock’s average daily trading volume.

For example, if a stock with a 50-day average daily trading volume of 500,000 shares suddenly trades 1 million shares, that’s a volume percentage of 100%. In Stocks On The Move on the home page of Investors.com, it’s common to see stocks trading higher with volume percent changes of 500%, 600% or more. The continuously updated screen also lists stocks falling in big volume, a sign that big investors are unwinding their positions.

Every day, stocks show up in “Most Active” lists even though their trading volume was below average. Last week, for example, General Electric appeared on an NYSE Most Active list because it traded nearly 18 million shares. But its 50-day average volume was 23.7 million shares. So it really wasn’t active at all because trading volume was below average.

more...


Here's the list. Sure ain't nothing there jumping out at me to buy. :shrug: Nothing like feeding the herd mentality though.:eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/volume111306.html

[54anickel]

24. When the Home Cookie Jar is Empty

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=60222

snip>

Increases in consumer borrowing pushes up economic spending and corporate profits and is far more powerful than wage or salary increases. To put it simply, when a dollar is borrowed, the full amount can be spent; when a dollar is earned, taxes need to be paid so depending on your tax rate, you’re left with about $.60 - $.80 cents.

snip>

If you read the financial press, you’ll know that new home prices have already been marked down almost ten percent. The markdowns do not even include incentives being offered such as free swimming pools, granite counter tops, or free maintenance for a year. It would be a miracle if the prices of old existing homes didn’t follow the same path down in price.

Some of our clients who work in the distressed arena and buy crappy mortgages have reviewed large nationwide portfolios of existing homes that are up for sale because of mortgage default. Their findings indicate that prices are already down 8 – 20 percent on average across the country! Remember, based on actual history of past real estate bubbles, the housing price drop is almost certain to take 2 to 3 years before it hits bottom.

snip>

Including the tax effect mentioned above, Americans will need a wage increase of about 20 percent to make up for a loss of purchasing power if home equity extraction goes away. (I sincerely doubt Americans can expect this type of raise from their generous employer next year.)

I must humbly admit that I can’t be certain what is going to happen, particularly in the future. However, I do know that specialty retailers can’t get sales up; Ford, GM, and Chrysler can’t figure out how to sell cars and auto production needs to be scaled back in the 4th quarter of 2006, and the 1st quarter of 2007; Home Depot is starting to sell general household goods because home owners are scaling back on home improvements; Wal-Mart’s sales are off and they have declared a major price war with Target, Best Buy (and any other retailer that wants to sell to mid-America) this Christmas season.

Don’t forecast; do the arithmetic yourself. Companies that either sell to the consumer or manufacture goods will be left scratching their heads as they scramble to find ways to get the consumer to spend. They’ll be hiring less people and cutting back on production and investment. Home builders have already halted new home construction in an over-saturated market. Less spending means fewer jobs. Even after taking $250 billion out of the house in the 3rd quarter, GDP was only up 1.6 percent so when the home equity extraction ends, GDP will go negative! When this happens, we’ll all have to sit back and see how the childish consumer reacts when the Home Equity Cookie Jar is Empty.

more...

[54anickel]

25. U.S. stocks turn higher on Fed-official's remarks on the economy

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/061113/d10a492d57d0387d8e66ba16d6b5ac52.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned higher Monday, buoyed by reports of a Fed-official's upbeat view on the economy, with a decline in the price of oil further boosting market sentiment.

snip>

A number of factors are behind gains, according to Jim Awad, chairman of Awad Asset Management.

"The market is getting more comfortable with the Democratic win. They're looking forward to a strong Christmas and a good earnings season while oil continues to go down, which is a tax cut for consumers," Awad said.

He added that remarks from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher that the U.S. economy is growing "forcefully" only serve to ratify investors' bullish sentiment.

"It's a good cocktail for stocks but there is a lot of data coming this week. Whatever you get today is subject to a reality check almost every day this week," he said. See Economic Preview.

snip>

The U.S. dollar extended gains after the Fed's Fisher offered an upbeat view on the U.S. economy. His remarks lowered the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates anytime soon. See Currencies.

more....

[54anickel]

26. Are private buyouts good for the economy?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1113/p01s01-usec.html

The new birth of Burger King Corp. this year delivered the beef to the investing public: Under private management, the long-struggling company turned a corner and then made shares available on the New York Stock Exchange.

But the managers kept some major side orders to themselves. They took out a big loan and paid themselves a $367 million dividend and other fees as well. In all, they extracted cash worth about one-sixth of Burger King's market value.

That's one whopper of a payout, and it's not unusual these days.

Increasingly, investors with deep pockets are banding together to form "private equity funds." Just as the leveraged buyout firms did in the 1980s, they are buying up companies, restructuring them, and then selling them back on public stock exchanges - often for a supersized profit.

snip>

Hardly a week goes by without more major deals being announced. Meanwhile, the very success of these buyout funds is attracting billions more dollars from investors - raising the prospect of many more buyouts in coming months. In essence, the wealthy are deciding that if you want to make money in stocks, the stock market isn't the place to do it.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

30. Private equity: Under the microscope

http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8150169
Nov 9th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Regulators put buy-out firms under scrutiny, but market forces may well be a tougher challenge for this booming investment sector

FIRST it was hedge funds, now private-equity firms. From the executive suites of Europe's biggest companies to the bureaucratic cubicles of Washington, DC, there are growing calls for stricter oversight of buy-out firms, which lately have marched from one big takeover to another. The most recent (though failed) bold stroke—a €40 billion ($51 billion) offer for Vivendi of France by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts—has galvanised critics, who claim good corporate citizens are under siege.

Now the regulators are weighing in. On November 6th Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) issued the first in-depth review of private equity by a top supervisory body. Its preliminary conclusions are that the biggest buy-out firms and their lenders deserve closer surveillance in several areas, but pose no broad risk to the financial system. The European Central Bank has also voiced concern over the growing exposure of banks to debt-hungry buy-out vehicles; but it, too, sees no cause for panic.

In America, the world's largest private-equity market, the Department of Justice is said to be expanding its investigation of “club” deals, in which big firms have teamed up to launch large bids. The worry is that they may be anti-competitive. Suddenly private-equity lawyers are popping up everywhere.

As a growing number of pension funds and insurance firms take leading stakes in private-equity firms, the future of the sector may rest more with market forces than with regulators. Here, too, things look a bit murkier. For one thing the days of cheap money cannot last forever—though they have proved more enduring than many had thought possible. And the growth in the number of funds chasing a finite number of assets also creates problems. It makes targets more expensive, requiring more debt to make a purchase. Once acquired, companies are held for shorter periods than in the past, leaving less time to knock them into shape.

So far it is hard to detect a slowdown. The number of buy-out deals surged to 2,677 in 2005 (with a value of about $326.5 billion), up from about 1,200 deals (worth about $108 billion) in 2002, according to Thomson Financial, a data provider. The pace has picked up this year, with more than $542 billion in deals done.

/... So, maybe not such a cosy club any longer?

[radfringe]

27. hope you have been following this daily thread in GD

yeah, I know sometimes GD is like a WWF cage match - without the cage...

might want to keep an eye on this and read through the links:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2703033

it's going to cause a whole lotta shaking across the boards

[54anickel]

32. Thanks Radfringe. Heard about the spinoff quite a while ago, then

all of a sudden *crickets*. Gee, wonder what the rush is all about? Bwahaha :evilgrin:

Let the investigations begin!!!

[Ghost Dog]

31. America's economy: Down but not out

http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8150206
From The Economist print edition
It's not the election, stupid. The big question on Wall Street is the economy

RARELY have Wall Street's seers been so split. Not only are they divided about where the economy is headed, they even disagree about how it is faring today. Pessimists, such as Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, reckon output is slowing from its already desultory pace of 1.6% a year in the third quarter and that recession is imminent. Optimists say GDP growth is rising after a weak summer. After analysing bond, equity and credit markets, Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley recently argued that the risk of recession was only 13%, down from 19% a month before.

How can opinion be so divided? The glib answer is that America has two economies: residential construction and car production are in a slump, but the rest is still chugging along. Such resilience is why the jobless rate fell to 4.4% in October, its lowest since 2001, and why both wages and hours worked grew smartly. But how sustainable that is depends on whether the sectoral declines worsen and spread.

Whether you look at housing or manufacturing it is hard to avoid some pessimism. Despite Alan Greenspan's recent declaration that the worst of the housing bust is over, the evidence suggests otherwise. The pace of decline in residential construction may (perhaps) have peaked, but the size of inventories and the weakness of demand suggest builders will be cutting back for many months yet, and that prices have farther to fall.

Stephen Roach, also of Morgan Stanley and a well-known contrarian, points out that less than a third of the run-up in construction spending over the past decade has been reversed. As a share of GDP, residential investment is still far above its long-term average (see chart). And even if the worst is over for house builders, it may not be for the construction industry as a whole. Up to now, non-residential construction—the building of offices and shopping malls—has been booming. But September's figures suggest that this, too, is losing steam. And the cuts are finally translating into fewer jobs. Overall, the construction sector shed 26,000 jobs in September. More lay-offs seem inevitable.

The news from manufacturers is also likely to get worse rather than better. Industrial production was flat in August and fell in September. Surveys of purchasing managers in October bode ill for the coming months. Carmakers are slashing production to reduce big inventories. The housing bust is hitting too. The production of housing-related goods—such as appliances and furniture—has fallen.

/...

[54anickel]

37. Inventories, Price Cuts May Halt U.S. Technology Stocks' Rally

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9ZPm3GL7YqA&refer=us

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of U.S. technology companies may end an almost four-month rally as falling demand leads to ballooning inventories and price cuts.

Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of processors, and other semiconductor stocks received ratings cuts from Merrill Lynch & Co. and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in the past two weeks. Analysts at the brokerage firms said demand hasn't met their expectations as economic growth falters.

``With the slowing economy, it's going to be tough'' to sustain excitement caused by new products such as Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Vista software, said Keith Maher, who helps manage $16 billion at BB&T Asset Management Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina. ``The odds are we're going to get a pullback.''

snip>

Optimism about U.S. stocks slid from a nine-month high last week on concern growth in the world's largest economy will slow, a weekly survey by Investors Intelligence showed. The percentage of bullish newsletter writers slipped to 52.1 percent in the week ended Nov. 3 from 53.7 percent a week earlier.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6 percent last quarter, the weakest since the first three months of 2003. The slowdown has weighed on earnings and forecasts at technology companies going into the holiday shopping season.

Third-quarter profit growth averaged 10.7 percent for the 56 technology companies in the S&P 500 that reported as of Nov. 8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The figure, adjusted to account for each company's market value, is lower than for every other industry group except consumer staples and health care.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Japan's economy: Pitching for growth

http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8139932
From The Economist print edition
Shinzo Abe—and the economy—may be more vigorous than they look

THE school of Japan-watchers that keeps an eye on the country's economy chiefly out of a morbid interest in terminal decline has stopped dwindling. It has even taken on new adherents of late. For signs are mounting that the recovery that began in 2002 has slowed—or even, some say, gone into reverse.

The chief worry is that what started as a recovery driven by exports (chiefly to China), and then expanded to one led by business investment, has failed to spread to households, whose spending remains sluggish. Prices still flirt with deflation (see chart). And some economists predict that figures published on November 14th will show that the economy actually shrank in the third quarter.

This exacerbates a deeper unease: a belief that the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has more interest in foreign affairs than in tackling the domestic rigidities that constrain Japan's potential to grow. The belief was reinforced by his energetic diplomacy over North Korea in his first month in office. But he was being written off even before that, either on the grounds that he lacked the reformist instincts of his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, or that he lacked the authority to push through unpalatable reforms, with important upper-house elections due next July.

Is this growing uneasiness justified? Mostly not. Take the economy first. Certainly, its anaemic performance marks this recovery as out of the ordinary, but then it follows long years of extraordinary distress. Habits are hard to change. So even though households now have more income—because companies are hiring more, and raising overtime and bonuses—this has not shown up in consumer spending. Alarm mounted last week when the main survey of household spending recorded a plunge in September of more than 6% compared with a year earlier. Yet this fall is too big to be credible; the survey (like early GDP numbers and other Japanese statistics) is notoriously unreliable.

Meanwhile, expectations are rising, even if habits have not yet caught up. Households' estimates of future inflation and property prices have climbed since the spring. People are not spending gaily, but they are starting to remove money from risk-free havens and invest it again. Deflation had killed the appetite for risk. There are other signs that the recovery is still broadly on track, even if it has, as in 2004, hit a soft patch. The latest bank lending figures seem to confirm this: though growth slowed in October, the year-old recovery in bank lending is still intact.

/...

[54anickel]

34. Is the Time Still Right for Foreign Bond Funds?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/12/business/yourmoney/12bond.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=yourmoney&adxnnlx=1163436867-Zd91CwVYz6SuA5zMHjgKOQ

AMERICAN investors have become quite enamored of foreign stocks in recent years, but they haven’t fallen nearly as hard for foreign bonds.

Roughly 90 percent of the money that Americans have poured into international mutual funds this year has gone into stock funds, according to AMG Data Services; as for domestic investments, Americans have put roughly 70 percent into bond funds.

Neglecting foreign bond funds may be shortsighted. Many bond experts say that a little foreign diversification can be good for the fixed-income side of a portfolio — and can help smooth out returns if there’s a decline in the dollar.

That said, some experts caution that this may not be the best time to put new money into foreign bonds. In particular, they say that investors shouldn’t expect foreign bond funds to keep outpacing domestic bond funds as much as they have so far this year.

Funds that invest in emerging-markets debt have returned more than 8 percent this year, while a broader foreign bond fund category has returned more than 4 percent. Funds that buy long-term United States Treasury issues, meanwhile, have struggled to eke out 1 percent, according to Morningstar.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

35. CorpGovActivist: Halliburton Hastens to Complete KBR Spinoff

CorpGovActivist: Halliburton Hastens to Complete KBR Spinoff: James Baker Drives the Getaway Car: DU thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2703033

[54anickel]

38. Leaving Halliburton's Nest

http://www.smartmoney.com/Bookrunner/index.cfm?story=20061113

snip>

This week there are nine IPOs scheduled to price, three of which should be on your radar screen. Shares of NYMEX Holdings, Allot Communications and KBR are all, in my opinion, likely to deliver above-average returns to IPO buyers. Certainly one of the more interesting deals is KBR.

KBR is the largest U.S. global engineering, construction and services company supporting the energy, petrochemicals, government services and civil infrastructure sectors. KBR, formerly Kellogg Brown and Root, was formed in 1901. The company has built more than half of the world's liquefied natural gas production capacity and ranks in the top-10 largest government defense contractors world-wide. In 2003, as a result of class-action litigation stemming from its asbestos and silica operations, subsidiaries of KBR filed for Chapter 11 protection. In 2005, the company was reorganized and in January 2006, a permanent injunction was issued enjoining further asbestos claims against KBR and its affiliates. KBR is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Halliburton (HAL: 32.17, +0.38, +1.2%). Post-offering, HAL will own approximately 81% to 83% of the 163.4 million outstanding common shares.

The offering consists of 27,840,000 shares at a price range of $15 to $17. Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and UBS Invest Bank are managing the sale. The IPO is scheduled to price on Tuesday, for trading on Wednesday.

For the nine months ended Sept. 30, the company posted $7.12 billion in revenues and $125 million in net income. That's down from $7.42 billion in revenues and $184 million in net income for the same period in 2005. As of Sept. 30, the company carried approximately $800 million in debt, the bulk of which is owed to its parent in the form of intercompany notes. The net proceeds of this offering are earmarked to pay down these notes.

Approximately $3.6 billion of KBR's $7.12 billion in revenues year-to-date was derived from an exclusive, noncompetitive U.S. government contract relating to Iraq known as LogCapIII. That's a decrease from fiscal year 2005 when revenues from this contract totaled $5.4 billion. The company expects those contract revenues to continue to decline as LogCapIII approaches completion in 2007. The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that they will solicit competitive bids for the LogCapIV contract, opening up speculation as to whether KBR will land the deal again.

more...

[54anickel]

36. Are High Credit Ratings Just a Thing of the Past?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/11/business/11charts.html?ref=business

IS it a good thing to have a high credit rating?

More and more corporations have their doubts that the answer is yes. There are still companies with solid balance sheets, but they tend to be the older and the more staid. New companies see little value in that.

“You have an incredible amount of liquidity sloshing around in the market,” said Diana Vazza, the head of global fixed-income research for Standard & Poor’s, the bond rating company.

Much of that money is seeking higher returns, and is thus willing to accept higher risks. That willingness to buy has meant that borrowers with dubious credit end up paying relatively little for the money.

Of the companies receiving their first ratings from Standard & Poor’s this year, fewer than 10 percent received investment grade.

The median rating for all American nonfinancial companies is now BB, or relatively high-quality junk. A decade ago, the median rating was BBB, an investment grade rating.

Then, as can be seen in the accompanying charts, 41 percent of all American corporate borrowers earned ratings of A or better; now the figure is 16 percent. Then, 23 percent earned ratings of B or worse; now the figure is 39 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Heading into the final hour 3:05

Dow 12,139.56 31.13 (0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,403.56 13.84 (0.58%)
S&P 500 1,385.32 4.42 (0.32%)
10-yr Bond 4.6030% 0.0170
30-yr Bond 4.7030% 0.0110
NYSE Volume 1,902,286,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,391,139,000

3:00 pm : Sellers remain a reluctant bunch heading into the final hour of trading as a renewed wave of buying interest lifts the indices toward afternoon highs. As evidenced by continued enthusiasm throughout the Technology sector (+1.0%), the Nasdaq is again outpacing its blue chip counterparts to the upside. It is worth noting that the tech-heavy Composite's best performers are also leaders in their respective markets and providing some notable leadership on the broader market as well: INTC (+2.2%), DELL (+3.3%), GOOG (+1.0%), QCOM (+2.2%), AMAT (+3.0%), ORCL (+1.2%), SUNW (+2.5%), SYMC (+2.7%), and NVDA (+4.8%).DJ30 +39.62 NASDAQ +16.38 SOX +1.7% SP500 +5.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1307/1697/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1419/1821/1.05 bln

2:30 pm : Stock market climbs a bit higher within the last 30 minutes, finding some added momentum as oil prices retrace session lows going into the close of trading on the NYMEX. Crude for December delivery is 1.8% near $58.50/bbl, which is helping retailers pare some of their losses. Also worth noting is the ability by the Energy sector to shrug off oil's decline and continue to provide upside leadership. Among the sector's biggest gainers is Chevron (CVX 70.73 +1.19), which is up 1.7% at a new all-time high. DJ30 +29.37 NASDAQ +14.16 SP500 +4.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1374/1613/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1712/948 mln

2:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive. However, Technology and Industrials are the only sectors posting some convincing gains. To wit, Health Care is now only up 0.2%, and much of that is attributed to Merck (MRK 43.46 +0.34) benefiting from a regulatory setback for Novartis (NVS 58.32 -1.04). Financials and Energy are also trading higher, but further deterioration in Consumer Staples is acting as somewhat of an offset.DJ30 +29.05 NASDAQ +10.36 SP500 +3.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1435/1535/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1643/1548/870 mln

1:30 pm : Indices appear to be settling back into a relatively narrow trading range. However, while all three major averages continue to post modest gains, market breadth has recently turned mixed. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE now hold a slight 16-to-15 edge over advancers while advancing issues outpace declining issues by a 15-to-13 margin. DJ30 +26.17 NASDAQ +11.21 SP500 +3.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1387/1559/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1614/1582/804 mln

1:00 pm : The market is still trading in positive territory, but a recent reversal in Consumer Discretionary has removed some notable leadership and now leaves the indices hitting afternoon lows. The sector has been getting support today from Homebuilding, as investors applaud the surprise resignation of KB Home's (KBH 44.83 +1.01) CEO amid an options backdating investigation. Publishers have also been a bright spot amid reports that Gannet (GCI 60.03 +0.87) has become interested in bidding for Tribune Co. (TRB 32.50 +0.47). However, without the absence of retailers, which has recently slipped into the red, the sector has followed suit. Aside from tomorrow's Q3 report from Home Depot (HD 36.37 -0.27) underpinning some concern, investors will also sift through the latest update on Retail Sales (8:30 ET) to get a read on the health of the consumer, especially heading into the all-important holiday season.DJ30 +25.75 NASDAQ +11.46 SP500 +3.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1288/1643/946 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1395/1772/730 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the overall proceedings as traders work their way through the New York lunch hour. Eight out of 10 sectors continue to post gains, with Consumer Staples and Utilities as the only areas failing to participate in today's follow-through buying efforts. It is worth noting that since both areas attract investors in part for their defensive characteristics, higher growth areas like Technology and Financials continue to garner added interest, especially against a backdrop of reasonable valuations and an improved interest rate outlook. DJ30 +39.62 NASDAQ +13.08 SP500 +4.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1264/1629/848 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1488/1669/650 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks are off their best levels but still posting modest gains midday as plunging oil prices, upbeat analyst commentary and some reassuring Fed speak help investors overlook early nervousness.

Albeit stumbling out of the gate, the market's underlying bullish tone has since resurfaced to extend last week's impressive performance. Among the most obvious reasons behind the improved sentiment has been an extension of Friday's 2.6% sell-off in oil prices. Crude for December delivery is down 1.8% near $58.50/bbl amid concerns that warm-weather forecasts for the week will curb demand for heating fuel. More notably is the fact that Energy, even in the face of oil's decline, has recently turned positive and is among the eight sectors trading higher.

Pacing the way and providing the bulk of early leadership, though, is Technology. Intel (INTC 20.92 +0.34), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, is the Dow's best performer (+1.7%) after it was added to Citigroup's Recommended List. Also providing notable sector support is Qualcomm (QCOM 36.12 +0.88), which is up 2.5% after Motorola (MOT 21.58 +0.20) said it will use QCOM's chips in their new 3G handsets, while Dell (DELL 25.36 +0.47) is up 1.9% after Deutsche Bank raised their price target to $28.

Aside from oil's pullback making transportation stocks more attractive, the Industrials sector is getting an additional lift after Citigroup also added General Electric (GE 35.42 +0.25) to its Recommended List. Despite weakness in Treasuries lifting bond yields across the curve, the rate-sensitive Financials sector is gearing up for the second-biggest week for IPOs this year. Another influential leader to the upside is Health Care, as Goldman Sachs adding Humana (HUM 53.00 +1.00) to its Conviction Buy List and an analyst upgrade on Express Scripts (ESRX 63.88 +1.47) help to renew some interest in last week's worst performing sector.

Separately, investors have gotten an additional vote of confidence after a notably hawkish Fed official -- Dallas Fed President Fisher -- said earlier that the U.S. economy is growing "forcefully." DJ30 +39.46 DJTA +0.7% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ +12.86 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.2% SOX +0.8% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +4.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1280/1571/732 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1416/1678/552 mln

[UpInArms]

40. closing the shop

Dow 12,131.88 23.45 (0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,406.38 16.66 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,384.42 3.52 (0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.605% 0.019

NYSE Volume 2,407,291,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,807,511,000

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday, but the bears again failed to prevent the market's underlying bullish tone from resurfacing to extend last week's solid gains. Since there were no earnings or economic reports of note scheduled until Tuesday, investors benefited from upbeat analyst commentary, plunging oil prices and some reassuring Fed speak.

With the S&P 500 Semiconductors Index still ranked as one of this year's biggest laggards, Citigroup upgrading the group to Overweight helped Technology provide a floor of support for all three of the major averages. Intel (INTC 21.00 +0.42), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio and today's best performing Dow component, surged 2.0% after it was added to Citigroup's Recommended List. Qualcomm (QCOM 36.21 +0.97) climbing 2.8%, after Motorola (MOT 21.13 -0.25) said it will use Qualcomm chips in its new 3G handsets, and Dell (DELL 25.49 +0.60) surging 2.4% after Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $28 provided additional sector support.

Among the other seven sectors trading higher, Industrials also provided some notable leadership. Aside from oil's pullback making transportation stocks more attractive, the Industrials sector got an additional lift after Citigroup added General Electric (GE 35.39 +0.22) to its Recommended List

Extending Friday's 2.6% sell-off, crude for December delivery fell 1.7% to $58.58/bbl amid concerns that warm-weather forecasts for the week will curb demand for heating fuel. More notably, though, was the Energy sector's resilience in the face of oil's decline.

With this week earmarked as the second biggest for IPOs this year, investment banks generated some additional buying interest and helped the rate-sensitive Financials sector shrug off rising interest rates. Among all 12 of the components in the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index gaining ground, Lehman Brothers (LEH 73.44 +1.38) was among the best performers, which was understandable since it is the only underwriter involved in all three of this week's potential blockbuster deals: Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ), Nymex Holdings (NMX), and KBR Inc. (KBR).

Consumer Discretionary was also in focus. Homebuilders recouped some of its year-to-date losses as investors applauded the surprise resignation of KB Home's (KBH 44.72 +0.90) CEO amid an options backdating investigation. Publishers were an even brighter spot amid reports that Gannett (GCI 59.87 +0.71) has become interested in bidding for Tribune Co. (TRB 32.45 +0.42).

Also, with investors questioning the degree to which consumer spending will hold up during the upcoming holiday season and whether inflation remains under control, notably hawkish Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher saying that the U.S. economy is growing "forcefully" offered investors an additional vote of confidence. DJ30 +23.45 DJTA +0.9% DOT +0.9% NASDAQ +16.66 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +0.4% SOX +1.5% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +3.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1302/1758/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1512/1777/1.33 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks continue to put together a respectable advance, especially considering the host of economic data that will have market-moving potential over the next few sessions. However, market gains are modest at best and much of today's interest is being driven by investors looking for bargains. To wit, Semiconductors, Semiconductor Equipment, Internet Retail, Forest Products and Education Services are among this year's worst performing S&P industry groups but are ranked among today's top ten performers. DJ30 +30.69 NASDAQ +14.21 SP500 +4.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1337/1682/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1542/1700/1.12 bln