STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 22

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 22, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 789 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2156 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1862 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1823
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 21, 2006

Dow... 12,321.59 +5.05 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,454.84 +2.12 (+0.09%)
S&P 500... 1,402.81 +2.31 (+0.16%)
Gold future... 628.70 +6.60 (+1.05%)
30-Year Bond 4.66% -0.02 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.58% -0.02 (-0.37%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

WEEKLY CHARTS

SUMMARY

Last week we said, "The prior week's action allows for a rather brief comment; the indicators are pointing up and thus, more upside action could very well be in the cards. However, both the chart pattern and the negative divergences from the technical indicators strongly suggest that a top of some sort may be in the making. Consequently, caution, and flexibility are a "must" at this point."

This week, "caution and flexibility are a must," but the indicators are pointing higher, and the up-coming week is characterized by positive seasonality. Therefore, the odds do favor higher prices; if the positive tendencies unfold according to the historical precedent, we ought to see a rally of 200/250 points in the Dow, 20/25 points in the SP, and 40/50 points in NASDAQ.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/18
Briefing Forecast 310K
Market Expects 310K
Prior 308K

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov
Briefing Forecast 92.3
Market Expects 93.0
Prior 92.3

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/17
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 1283K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

10. Initial Claims rise 12,000 to 321,000

U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 14,000 to 2.45 mln - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 22, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. 4-week avg. initial jobless claims up 3,000 to 317,000 - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 22, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims rise 12,000 to 321,000 - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 22, 2006 - 1 minute ago

[54anickel]

15. Stocks Fall on Consumer Sentiment Survey

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061122/wall_street.html?.v=12

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street gave up early gains and moved lower Wednesday after a widely watched measure of consumer sentiment revealed Americans are less confident going into the holiday shopping season.

News of a dip in the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment turned the market around after Dell Inc.'s strong earnings had given stocks a lift in light pre-Thanksgiving activity. The university's index of consumer sentiment fell to 106.0 this month from October's 10.7.3, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said new applications for unemployment benefits last week rose by a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 321,000. However, the more stable four-week moving average of claims, while high, is about the same as a year ago.

If consumer confidence is sagging going into the holiday season, the great concern is that retailers, and in turn, manufacturers, will suffer a drop in business. And since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth, the rest of the economy could be affected.

more...

[54anickel]

17. Survey: Consumers likely to cut holiday spending

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/11/22/survey_consumers_likely_to_cut_holiday_spending/

WASHINGTON -- Consumers are a bit more inclined to cut back on holiday spending than in recent years, concerned about energy costs and credit card debt.

A moderate rise in holiday spending, weaker than in the past few years, is expected as a result, the Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association said yesterday in their annual survey.

When respondents were asked whether they intended to spend more or less this season, 32 percent said less compared with 30 percent in the 2005 survey. Eighteen percent said much less, up from 13 percent.

By contrast, 15 percent said they would spend more this year, close to last year's 14 percent, while 52 percent said they would spend about the same, little changed from 51 percent.

"Our experience with this survey is consumers tend to say they will spend less than they actually do, and our overall survey findings are slightly weaker than last year," said Bill Hampel, chief economist of the credit union association. "This suggests many households will feel financially 'hung over' in a couple of months unless they do something about it now."

more...

[54anickel]

30. Parents Ponying Up for Pricey Toys

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061122/retail_pricey_toys.html?.v=2

My Robotic Pony and Other Pricey Toys: This Year, Toy Makers Are Pulling Out the Stops

WASHINGTON (AP) -- You better watch out: this holiday shopping season could be one of the priciest ever as the most tech-laden and expensive gifts for kids of all ages, from the $299 animatronic pony Butterscotch to a $300 pinball machine, show up at your neighborhood Wal-Mart or Target.

Even if Santa doesn't leave the elusive $500 Sony PlayStation 3 under your tree, there's still Hasbro's $249 Nerf Showtime Hoops, a basketball "gaming system" with an electronic scoreboard and a recorded voice that can announce whether your child has launched a "brick" or hit "nothin' but net!"

Or you can go to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to pick up a red Ford Mustang Power Wheels, a $250 battery-operated car for children 3 years old and up. The Mustang is a Wal-Mart exclusive made by Mattel Inc.'s Fisher-Price division, though many other models can be found at other retailers, such as Toys "R" Us.

"Every Christmas season, there's more expensive toys," Scott McCall, Wal-Mart's chief toy officer, says. This year, toymakers are pushing prices up even more, he added.

Toys have gotten more expensive for several reasons, industry executives and analysts said. The demand is there: Parents have shown a willingness to spend more on children's gifts. Meanwhile, toy companies are able to make more sophisticated toys because computer chips and robotics keep getting cheaper. The companies can then charge more for those high-tech toys.

more...

[54anickel]

16. U.S. crude supply up; gasoline supplies rise: Energy Dept.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-crude-supply-up-gasoline/story.aspx?guid=%7B1C710C32-5364-412E-B956-9F2B81A5E52F%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude supplies rose 5.1 million barrels to 341.1 million for the week ended Nov. 17. Motor gasoline supplies rose for the first time in six weeks, up 1.4 million barrels at 201.7 million. Distillate inventories stocks fell for a seventh-straight week, down 1.2 million barrels to total 133.8 million barrels. Following the news, January crude fell by 62 cents to $59.55 a barrel.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices drop to $59.94 a barrel

LONDON - Crude-oil prices dropped Wednesday as traders awaited the weekly U.S. oil inventory report, a day after climbing above $60 a barrel on news of temporary supply disruptions.

Analysts are expecting the weekly report to show that U.S. supply of gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, dropped for the seventh straight week.

"Day-to-day events and commentary will continue to push prices up and down in the short term, but until something new of significant fundamental import surfaces, prices will most likely remain fairly close to the current range," said John Kilduff at Fimat USA.

Light sweet crude for January delivery fell 23 cents to $59.94 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. On London's ICE Futures exchange, January Brent was down 26 cents to $60.13 a barrel.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Gasoline prices see abnormal rise

As travelers prepare to hit the road for Thanksgiving, the trip is getting more expensive: Gasoline prices increased during the last week in most of the country, led by California and the other West Coast states, a federal report showed Monday.

Refinery maintenance and tight supplies drove the uncharacteristic mid-November surge as the price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in California rose 3.1 cents to $2.495, the third straight weekly increase, according to the Energy Department's weekly survey of filling stations. The price was 4.2 cents higher than in the same period in 2005.

Motorists in the Pacific Northwest were hit even harder, however, driving West Coast prices up 3.5 cents as a whole to $2.473 a gallon, up 4 cents from the previous year.

Nationally, retail gasoline prices rose 0.7 cent to $2.239 for the week, 3.8 cents above the price in 2005. It was the second consecutive increase and the third in the last four weeks.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas21nov21%2c1%2c688619.story?coll=la-headlines-business

[54anickel]

9. Abnormal? Sheesh, it's a freakin' holiday! It would be abnormal if the

price didn't creep up!!! Why do they even bother trying to make up an excuse for the practice that's been going on for as long as I can remember.

[Roland99]

12. It's been freaky in the last week. Oil dropped below $56/bbl and gas went UP $0.20.

Now, oil is pushing $60/bbl and gas has been trickling down in price.

[ozymandius]

5. Have a great day at the Casino and a wonderful holiday!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's time for me to tend to family and holiday bidness. My wish is that your holiday weekend as is happy and stress-free as possible.

Ozy :hi:

[feminazi]

6. Thanks, Ozy

And the same wishes to you.

I, for one, am thankful for the SMW that you regulars contribute to every day.

:yourock:

[54anickel]

7. Profits at a Peak?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=60538

On the surface, it seems that there are diametrically different views at work in the markets. While the rising bond prices and the falling commodity prices apparently suggest underlying distinct economic bearishness, the sudden surge in stock prices and persistent record-low credit spreads appear to reflect very optimistic expectations about the economy.

The turn in the bond market started in June with yields of 10-year Treasury notes at 5.25%. A decline to 4.7% generated a 5% return for investors within just three months. Annualized, this comes to a return of 20%. Take further into account that there is generally heavy leverage involved, multiplying this return between 10-20 times.

Considering further that this rate of decline of long-term rates has occurred against the backdrop of a firmly inverted yield curve, implying that expenses of carry trade exceed current yields, the strength of this move seems a bit surprising. The quick capital gains, though, have richly offset these interest expenses - for the time being. But to maintain these highly leveraged positions, it will need at least one of two things: either a further sharp fall in long-term rates providing new capital gains or rate cuts by the Fed reducing the costs of carry trade.

More surprising is the new bull run of the stock market in the face of an economic slowdown. Approaching recessions have always tended to depress stock markets in expectation of falling profits. Well, there is a tremendous difference between past and present experience.

Past recessions were all triggered by true monetary tightening, hitting both the economy and the markets. The current economic downturn is unfolding against the backdrop of unmitigated monetary looseness. While the Fed has raised credit costs from unusually low levels, it has done nothing to tighten credit. Its expansion has kept accelerating.

more...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.80 Change -0.44 (-0.52%)

Dollar Weaker After White House Downgrades Growth Prospects

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar_Weaker_After_White_House_1164193839970.html

Dollar weakness continued is Asia and European trade today in the wake of White House announcement that growth estimates for both 2006 and 2007 would be pared down. The Bush administration curtailed its projections for 2006 from 3.6% to 3.1% while 2007 estimates were revised downward from 3.3% to 2.9%. Acknowledging the slowdown in housing, Edward Lazear chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors stated, “The housing market, as you know, it has been hit, I think, harder than most of us had expected.” The news resuscitated dollar bear’s arguments of a US slowdown and took focus away from the much anticipated strong start to the US Christmas shopping season.

Yen was the biggest beneficiary of this news, as the unit ignored its own lackluster data gaining 70 points from yesterday’s New York close. With US growth anticipated to slow the interest rate differential between the two currencies may now contract, prompting many traders to bail out of their carry trade positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in both countries.

The EUR/USD was also boosted today by supportive eco data from the Euro-zone where French Consumer spending showed a nice rebound in October to 0.9% gain from a -2.7% decline the month prior. The news bodes well for Q4 GDP numbers and suggests that the anemic Q3 results released yesterday were a one off result driven primarily by temporary dampening effects of rising energy costs. EZ Industrial orders also proved to be an upside surprise, retreating less than expected at -1.3% vs. -2.4% projected.

With the EUR/USD now within striking distance of its long term resistance at 1.2900 further progress may be limited unless of U of M data prints materially worse than expected stoking speculation that the US consumer spending may in fact be weaker this Christmas season.

...more...

Dollar Falls on the Prospect that Rising Oil Prices Could Hurt Holiday Spending

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Falls_on_the_Prospect_1164146859664.html

US Dollar – Even though the holiday shopping season is at the top of everybody’s minds, the market could not ignore the fact that oil prices have creeped back above $60 a barrel. Bad weather in Alaska has forced the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System to reduce their shipping volumes by 35 percent while Marathon Oil was forced to shut one of their platforms in the North Sea after a gas leak. Since having remained below $60 for all of last week, the pop higher in crude prices at a time when the weather is turning colder in the Northeast is reminding traders of how far prices have fallen over the past few months. The fear is that if oil continues to climb, it could deal a blow to the liberal spending that is expected of consumers this holiday season. This will continue to be the market’s main focus with Black Friday and Cyber Monday right around the corner. Even though the Redbook retail sales report showed a smaller rise in same store sales over the past week, the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index jumped 1.2 percent. These are leading indicators of what may be to come on Friday, but we will not have to wait long to get a true sense of how holiday shopping will fare this Christmas season as everyone heads to the stores later this week. Federal Reserve officials continue to be persistently hawkish with Governor Warsh reiterating that inflation remains “uncomfortably elevated.” The minutes from Fed meetings held in October indicate that this sentiment is quite unanimous although core inflation is not high enough to warrant a rate hike. The one takeaway point from the Fed is that they will not be adjusting rates anytime soon. Trading should grind to a halt after noontime tomorrow as US traders leave early for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

...more...

[spotbird]

13. Who would have thought

oil prices would increase immediately after the election? Not me, that's for sure.

[54anickel]

21. Still dropping

Last trade 84.47 Change -0.77 (-0.90%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.26

Previous Close 85.24 High 85.27

Low 84.44 2006-11-22 10:27:19, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

22. Gold futures climb above $630 to a more than one-week high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-climb-above-630/story.aspx?guid=%7B7A778459%2D0808%2D4DEC%2D8909%2DAAF2524D564D%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold was last up $2.70 to $631.40 an ounce after trading as high as $633.30, the contract's highest level since Nov. 10. "Dollar weakness continues to boost sentiment in gold with the yellow metal building for a test of the $628-$630 resistance band," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. December silver was up 4 cents at $13.125 an ounce after peaking at $13.185 -- a level it hasn't seen since Sept. 6. December copper added 2.25 cents to stand at $3.138 a pound, its loftiest level since Nov. 10. January platinum sank $62.10, or 5.1% to $1,157 an ounce, extending losses from Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

11. US home loan demand falls, first dip in three weeks

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-22T120108Z_01_N22471107_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 22 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for the first time in three weeks despite a dip in mortgage rates to their lowest level since January, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and purchasing loans, for the week ended Nov. 17 decreased 3.7 percent to 623.6 from the previous week's 647.5.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.13 percent, down 0.02 percentage point from the previous week, and well below a four-year high of 6.86 percent touched in June. Interest rates were also below year-ago levels of 6.26 percent.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at its lowest level since the week ended Jan. 20 when it reached 6.04 percent.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index, widely considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales, fell 2.8 percent to 401.4. The index was substantially below its year-ago level of 472.3.

...more...

[54anickel]

14. 10:37 numbers and blather

Dow 12,314.70 6.89 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,455.81 0.97 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,402.89 0.08 (0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.5760% 0.0020
30-yr Bond 4.6640% 0.0060
NYSE Volume 582,091,000
Nasdaq Volume 445,240,000

10:30 am : Early momentum continues to fade as an unexpected decline in consumer sentiment takes the wind out of the market's sails. According to the recent release of a study compiled by the University of Michigan, sentiment inched lower to 92.1 in late November from a reading of 92.3 earlier in the month and below the 15-month high of 93.6 registered in October. Even though the data do not correlate well with short-term consumer spending trends, and the report still showed that lower gasoline prices and more jobs are helping to offset concerns about the slowdown in housing, the timing of today's report -- heading into one of the busiest retail shopping days of the year (Black Friday) -- has resulted in a knee-jerk reaction that now leaves the major averages trading in split fashion. DJ30 -13.78 NASDAQ -0.31 SP500 +0.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1415/1189/344 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1121/1762/216 mln

10:00 am : The indices remain on the offensive as all 10 economic sectors are now posting gains. While Technology (+0.5%) is the focal point today following Dell's solid Q3 report, it ranks second to Materials (+0.9%). The sector is getting a lift from Dow component Alcoa (AA 29.86 +0.67), which opened up more than 2% after announcing plans to slash 10% of its global workforce. Also noteworthy is a rebound in Financials. Albeit posting only a modest gain, renewed enthusiasm for banks and continued momentum in brokerage stocks have helped bring back some much needed leadership in the S&P 500's most influential sector, helping the bulls keep a four-month rally intact. DJ30 +10.49 NASDAQ +6.39 SP500 +3.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 914/1450/136 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 912/1594/54 mln

09:40 am : With respect to the indication provided by futures trading, the open has pretty much gone off as expected with stocks opening on a positive note. The Nasdaq is registering some early outperformance, getting its biggest boost from a 10% surge in shares of Dell (DELL 27.32 +2.50). Last night, Dell topped Wall Street estimates, garnering multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases. Since Dell was a source of concern for investors after delaying its report last week, its Q3 surprise is lending some additional comfort since growth concerns within the influential Tech sector have placed tech valuations under the microscope of late. DJ30 +10.57 NASDAQ +6.91 SP500 +1.73 NASDAQ Vol 76 mln NYSE Vol 38 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.2. Futures indications are off their best levels but are still setting the stage for stocks to open slightly higher. Even though it has been some time since trading in the U.S. has been dictated by action in foreign markets, gains of more than 1.0% on the Nikkei and Hang Seng overnight may also be contributing to the positive disposition in U.S. equity markets fueled primarily by Dell's solid Q3 results.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. After a two-day hiatus of anything of note on the economic calendar, investors are sifting through the latest update on labor conditions which was compiled during the same week as the November payrolls data. Weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 321,000 (consensus 310,000). However, the initial response has so far been muted as investors set their focus on the final sentiment reading for November (10:00 ET) to gain insight into the moods of consumers since Friday officially marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures versus fair value suggest stocks will open on an upbeat note. Acting as the main catalyst behind early buying efforts is a better than expected Q3 earnings report from Dell (DELL), which has garnered multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases. The bellwether, which was a source of concern for investors after delaying its report last week, is indicated to open nearly 9% higher, keeping the influential Tech sector front and center going into the Thanksgiving holiday.

[54anickel]

18. China’s poorest worse off after boom

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e28495ce-7988-11db-b257-0000779e2340.html

China’s poor grew poorer at a time when the country was growing substantially wealthier, an analysis by World Bank economists has found.

The real income of the poorest 10 per cent of China’s 1.3bn people fell by 2.4 per cent in the two years to 2003, the analysis showed, a period when the economy was growing by nearly 10 per cent a year. Over the same period, the income of China’s richest 10 per cent rose by more than 16 per cent.

“Preliminary analysis on Chinese data indicates that average income of the bottom decile went down slightly between 2001 and 2003, whereas all other income categories saw significant increases,” said Bert Hofman, the bank’s lead economist in China.

“Our analysis suggests that a considerable number of people below the poverty line were hit by an income shock – they only kept up consumption by spending their savings.”

The findings challenge the basis of government policies aimed at narrowing the country’s politically sensitive wealth gap.

Hu Jintao, China’s president, who came to power in 2002 and is likely to win a second five-year term next year, has made narrowing the gap between rich and poor a centrepiece of his administration’s economic policies.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Have you got your $87? (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty112206.html

-- These days I am paralyzed, consumed with dread at the unfolding economic drama, although I am somewhat mollified by the news that Total Fed Credit was down by a microscopic $400 million last week. So the Fed, I am somewhat relieved to note, is not going crazy with creating new excesses of money and credit with this particular method.

They did take the time to issue another $2.5 billion in actual cash, which seems weird, because when I go up to strangers and ask for money, they tell me they don't have any money. And then, when I get home, the family asks me for money, and I tell them the same thing! Like I said; weird!

And speaking of cash, which seems to be all anyone talks about around here anymore, Cash in Circulation is up $26 billion from this time a year ago, which is about $87 per man, woman and child in America, or about $350 for a family of four. You got yours? Me, neither.

And foreign central banks are still slopping around in the tons and tons of dollars that they end up with, as dollars are the principal export of the United States, to the tune of $850 billion a year in the trade deficit alone. And as these foreign central banks end up with the dollars until all the vaults and drawers and cabinets and closets are full of them, and they got rid of a few of them last week by putting another whopping $7.6 billion into their holdings of government and agency debt at the Fed, mostly because there isn't anything else to do with so damned much money, even though I generously offered to let them deposit the money with the First Mogambo Bank Of Earth (FMBOE), proudly serving this whole sector of the galaxy for almost three of your earth weeks, but they won't even return my calls.

But if you want to see something really, really eye-popping, then Savings/Other Deposits in the banks is the place to go, as they were up an astonishing $228 billion last week! In one week! This is huuuUUUuuuuge! A quarter of a trillion bucks appeared like magic in accounts at the banks! In one week! I guess this must be the arrival of the temporary Treasury accounts money that was recently authorized. But wow!

more...

[54anickel]

20. Memories of 1929 - Part II - "They were like God"

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-10.html


After the tremendous bull run of the 1920's, the stock market became very volatile during its topping process in the fall of 1929. On September 5th, influential economist Roger Babson gave a speech predicting a crash, saying "Sooner or later, a crash is coming and it may be terrific!" He had been saying the same thing -- and been widely ignored -- for the past two years, but on that September day his words finally caught hold. The market fell 3% by the close of trading and market players, forever looking for a scapegoat, called it the "Babson break." Over the next few days, prices stabilized but continued their downward drift, becoming extremely volatile in the latter days of September. Stocks rose and fell like a roller coaster, with neither rhyme nor reason to the fluctuations.

Rubin Cain was a stock salesman in 1929, having started his new job near the all time peak. He shared his experience in the PBS documentary "The Crash of 1929"


REUBEN L. CAIN, Stock salesman, 1929: I remember well that I thought, "Why is this doing this?" And then I thought, "Well, I'm new here and these people" -- like every day in the paper, Charlie Mitchell would have something to say, the J.P. Morgan people would have something to say about how good things were -- and I thought, "Well, they know a lot more about this market than I do. I'm fairly new here and I really can't see why it's going up."

But then, when they say it can't go down or if it does go down today, it'll go back tomorrow, you think, "Well, they really are like God. They know it all and it must be the way it's going because they say so."
You can hear the earnestness in his voice as he speaks, and you can easily imagine him as a young man believing wholeheartedly in the words of the financial powers-that-be of his era. In the end, those Gods of the 1920's were proven to be mere mortals, as the Great Crash melted into the Great Depression.


* * *
Who are our God's today? Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and the institution of the Fed itself come to mind. "They know it all," we think. They won't let the collapsing housing market kill the economy. We know this to be true "because they say so." Interestingly, just a few days ago an article came out titled "Greenspan Not Omniscient." Greenspan actually had a terrible forecasting record as a private consultant before taking over at the Fed, as William Rutherford points out in his book Who Shot Goldilocks.

more...

[54anickel]

23. 1:18 check in - slow day for the markets

Dow 12,312.13 9.46 (0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,460.29 5.45 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,403.34 0.53 (0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.5680% 0.0100
30-yr Bond 4.6510% 0.0070
NYSE Volume 1,374,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 969,389,000

1:00 pm : The indices are still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, with the blue chip averages still vacillating around the unchanged mark. Meanwhile, investors have recently received confirmation that Tracinda Corp has been selling shares of General Motors (GM 31.31 -1.27). In an SEC filing, Tracinda disclosed a 7.4% (42 mln share) stake in GM, down from the 9.9% (56 mln share) stake disclosed on October 6, saying that on November 20 it agreed to sell 14,000,000 shares of common stock in a private transaction for $33.00 per share. Be that as it may, speculation surrounding Tracinda reducing its stake in GM have largely been priced into the auto maker's stock.DJ30 -5.47 NASDAQ +5.86 SP500 +1.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1550/1314/882 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1431/1699/710 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as traders make their way through the New York lunch hour and kick off what is expected to be a quiet afternoon session. It is worth noting, though, that Financials and Industrials have recently slipped into the red; but the impact on the broader market has been minimal so far since both sectors have been relatively unchanged for the last hour. DJ30 -5.85 NASDAQ +5.50 SP500 +0.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1534/1317/799 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1451/1661/638 mln

12:00 pm : The major averages are still trading in split fashion midday as investors weigh some upbeat corporate news and plunging oil prices against an unexpected decline in consumer sentiment.

The biggest story of the day has been Dell (DELL 27.22 +2.40). Last night, the tech bellwether topped Wall Street estimates, garnering multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases. Since Dell was a source of concern for investors after delaying its report last week, its Q3 surprise has lent some additional comfort since growth concerns within the influential Tech sector have left some questioning the sustainability of tech valuations.

With AAA estimating 38.3 mln Americans to travel 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday, oil prices have been another focal point this morning. However, investors are having a hard time embracing a 2.7% drubbing in black gold heading into one of the busiest retail shopping days of the year (Black Friday) since the commodity's sell-off diminishes the Energy sector's earnings potential. Crude for January delivery is trading at $58.50/bbl after the EIA reported a large increase in weekly crude supplies and a surprise build in gasoline inventories.

Investors are also dealing with the University of Michigan showing that sentiment inched lower to 92.1 in late November from a reading of 92.3 earlier in the month. Even though the data do not correlate well with short-term consumer spending trends, and the index still remains near a 15-month high after showing that lower gasoline prices and more jobs are helping to offset concerns about the slowdown in housing, the timing of today's report has removed much of the market's early momentum.

Separately, billionaire Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp planning to raise its stake in MGM Mirage (MGM 54.12 +5.12) to as much as 61.7% via a tender offer for $825 mln has fueled interest throughout the casino space. However, concerns that Tracinda is paring its position in General Motors (GM 31.48 -1.13) to finance the MGM tender offer has pushed the auto maker to one-month lows. In fact, as today's worst performer on the Dow (-3.5%) again, it is offsetting a 3.6% surge in fellow Dow component Alcoa (AA 30.25 +1.06), which announced plans to slash 10% of its global workforce. Alcoa is a big reason Materials is turning in the best performance among the eight sectors posting gains. BTK -0.4% DJ30 -5.89 DOT +0.7% NASDAQ +6.81 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.1% SOX +1.0% SP400 +0.03% SP500 +1.33 XOI -1.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1415/1388/714 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1271/1797/568 mln

11:30 am : The indices remain mixed as split sector leadership continues to dictate this morning's action. Of the eight sectors trading higher, Materials and Tech are still pacing the gains, but Financials relinquishing most of its intraday advance and now relatively unchanged for the day is stalling buying efforts. The absence of more notable leadership from the likes of Health Care and Industrials is also making it difficult for the bulls to offset the 1.2% pullback in Energy.DJ30 -4.41 NASDAQ +5.63 SOX +0.7% SP500 +1.16 XOI -1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1426/1313/610 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1233/1782/472 mln

11:00 am : The market bounces off its worst levels of the day as oil prices continue to tumble. Crude for January delivery is now down more than 2.0% and back below $59/bbl after the EIA reported a large increase in weekly crude supplies and a surprise build in gasoline inventories. While oil's decline has removed the likelihood of the profit engine that is Energy (-1.2%) from providing any upside leadership, commodity traders erasing nearly all of yesterday's 2.3% surge in oil is renewing some relief. After all, lower gas prices bode well, not just for consumers gearing up for holiday shopping, but more notably for the 38.3 mln travelers AAA expects to travel 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday. DJ30 -6.09 NASDAQ +2.87 SP500 +0.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1483/1208/482 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1337/1634/346 mln

10:30 am : Early momentum continues to fade as an unexpected decline in consumer sentiment takes the wind out of the market's sails. According to the recent release of a study compiled by the University of Michigan, sentiment inched lower to 92.1 in late November from a reading of 92.3 earlier in the month and below the 15-month high of 93.6 registered in October. Even though the data do not correlate well with short-term consumer spending trends, and the report still showed that lower gasoline prices and more jobs are helping to offset concerns about the slowdown in housing, the timing of today's report -- heading into one of the busiest retail shopping days of the year (Black Friday) -- has resulted in a knee-jerk reaction that now leaves the major averages trading in split fashion. DJ30 -13.78 NASDAQ -0.31 SP500 +0.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1415/1189/344 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1121/1762/216 mln

[54anickel]

24. Platinum Falls Most in More Than 6 Years as Investors Doubt ETF

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4ja1FMUwn0A&refer=home

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum slumped the most in more than six years in London, declining from a record, as some investors doubted the prospect of an exchange-traded fund being introduced for the precious metal.

Platinum, used in jewelry and car-exhaust systems, dropped when the talk of an ETF attracted skepticism that supply may not be enough to support a fund similar to those already available for gold and silver. So-called ETFs purchase and store metal, allowing investors to trade assets without owning them.

An ETF would be ``disruptive'' because the platinum market is ``very narrow,'' John Sheldrick, finance director of Johnson Matthey Plc, the world's biggest distributor of platinum-group metals, said in an interview today. ``It would lead to more volatility.''

The platinum market is moving closer to a match between supply and demand after eight years of deficit. The shortfall this year will be 20,000 ounces, compared with 70,000 ounces in 2005, Johnson Matthey said in its Nov. 14 market review.

``I am a firm believer in ETFs, but profitability for an ETF for platinum would swing enormously in a small and illiquid market,'' Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services, said by telephone from Sydney today. ``It's dangerous to trade platinum at the moment as the volatility is unbelievable.''

Platinum for immediate delivery fell $81.50, or 6.5 percent, to $1,170 an ounce in London at 11:30 a.m. A close at that level would make it the biggest one-day drop since August 2000. The metal jumped as much as 11.9 percent to record high of $1,402.50 yesterday.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Transatlantic split over loan credit derivative ‘cancellability’

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ecbca05e-78cf-11db-8743-0000779e2340.html

An influential group of credit portfolio managers has called for a fundamental change in the burgeoning market for loan-related credit derivatives.

The appeal brings risk managers from some of the world’s largest lending institutions into a debate that has caused a split between the US and European markets.

In a letter to derivatives dealers released on Tuesday, the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers calls for the inclusion of “cancellability” provisions in standard documentation for loan credit default swaps, which provide a kind of insurance against non-payment of corporate loans.

Most CDS instruments stay in force even if the underlying debt is repaid. The IACPM wants to have the option of buying loan CDS that are cancelled if the underlying loan is repaid, something that happens more frequently with loans than with bonds.

Standard documentation for loan CDS in the US was launched without this option in June.

more...

[54anickel]

26. GM extends losses as Kerkorian sells

Union chatter on contract talks also pressures automaker

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gm-hit-union-chatter-kerkorian/story.aspx?guid=%7B0D9F4273-058B-4F5C-AFFC-1BF057771AA8%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. shares extended losses Wednesday, skidding to a double-digit decline this week after top individual shareholder Kirk Kerkorian disclosed in a filing that he sold 14 million shares.

Concerns that the giant automaker is headed toward a tough round of union contract talks also pressured the stock over the past few days.

In midday trading, the Dow component was down another 3.3% to $31.53, having started the week at $35.37.

Kerkorian said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that, after the recent transaction in which he sold the 14 million shares at $33 each, his stake in the company is now 7.4%, down from 9.9%.

Shares of the Detroit-based GM closed off 4.6% at $32.61 on Tuesday, retreating after United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger said the union plans to fight to defend terms in its existing deal when contract negotiations kick off in July.

The thorniest of these issues looks to be the controversial "jobs bank" program, under which laid-off workers continue to draw nearly full pay and benefits.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Dangerous Toys Still on Store Shelves

Parents Can't Trust Government to Protect Their Children

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/11/safer_toys.html

Despite decades-old laws requiring safer toys and other children's items, many hazardous toys are still being sold in stores across the country, according to the 21st annual toy safety survey released by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group (U.S. PIRG).

"While we can report substantial progress after more than two decades of advocacy on behalf of America's littlest consumers, U.S. PIRG's researchers still found trouble in toyland," said U.S. PIRG Research Director Alison Cassady, the author of the report.

According to the most recent data from the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), almost 73,000 children under the age of five were treated in emergency rooms for toy-related injuries in 2005. Twenty children died from toy-related injuries last year.

"Even one toy-related death is too many, because these deaths are preventable," said Cassady.

The 21st annual U.S. PIRG Trouble in Toyland report offers safety guidelines for purchasing toys for small children and provides examples of toys currently on store shelves that pose potential safety hazards.

U.S. PIRG's research focused on several categories of toy dangers:

• toys that pose choking hazards,
• toys with powerful magnets,
• toys that contain lead, and
• toys that pose strangulation hazards.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Wal-Mart boycott called off

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5717572

UPDATE -- A Wal-Mart Black Friday boycott is being called off. The conservative group The American Family Association asked its supporters not to shop at Wal-Mart this Friday and Saturday because of the retailer's support of gay rights groups.

The boycott was canceled after Wal-Mart agreed to stay away from controversial causes. The company released a statement saying it remains committed to diversity but says it will no longer make contributions to highly controversial issues.


Wal-Mart may face holiday boycotts
Conservatives hit retailer for its support of gays :eyes: :grr:

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/11/22/wal_mart_may_face_holiday_boycotts/

NEW YORK -- A conservative group that had called on supporters to boycott Wal-Mart's post-Thanksgiving Day sales to protest the retailer's support of gay-rights groups withdrew its objections yesterday.

The American Family Association, which had been asking supporters to stay away from Wal-Mart on Friday and Saturday -- two of the busiest shopping days of the year -- said it was pleased that Wal-Mart had pledged in a statement to stay away from controversial causes.

Wal-Mart said it would make changes in the way it contributed to groups, earmarking funds only for specific causes it supported, such as workplace equality, rather than giving unrestricted gifts.

A prominent gay-rights leader, Joe Solmonese of the Human Rights Campaign, said the change was minor and praised Wal-Mart for sticking with its commitments to diversity and equality despite the threats from the American Family Association.

"I don't see it as backpedaling by Wal-Mart," Solmonese said. "I think the AFA failed, and thought to themselves, 'Let's declare victory and hope nobody notices.' "

However, another group critical of Wal-Mart was skeptical.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Advanced Medical recalls lens solution on contamination problems

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1427898.html

NEW YORK, November 22 (newratings.com) – Advanced Medical Optics Inc (AVO.NYS) Tuesday recalled Complete MoisturePlus contact lens solution due to possible eye infections, while reducing its profit forecast for 2006. The company’s share price declined nearly 9% after the announcement on Tuesday.

Advanced Medical Optics said that it was withdrawing around three million units of its contact lens solution from across the world, following complaints of bacterial contamination in some lots that were manufactured in China and sold in Japan. The recalled units included 18 lots distributed in the US, the Santa Ana, California-based company said. Production at the Chinese unit has been stopped till the whole plant is cleaned and sanitized, Advanced Medical Optics added. The company lowered its 2006 earnings forecast to $1.30-$1.40 a share, from the earlier guided $1.85-$1.90. Advanced Medical Optics expects to incur expenses of $35-$40 million to complete the recall, remedy the contamination problem and restore the product’s market share.

[54anickel]

31. Closing - just for the record. Everyone's in the black

Dow 12,326.95 5.36 (0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,465.98 11.14 (0.45%)
S&P 500 1,406.09 3.28 (0.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.5680% 0.0100
30-yr Bond 4.6510% 0.0070
NYSE Volume 2,284,711,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,617,877,000

4:20 pm : As expected, trading action in the market appeared as if the tryptophan-induced comas that typically accompany the consumption of Thanksgiving Day turkey came a day early as trading among the majority of large-cap names looked a bit sedated.

The Dow fluctuated around the flat line, as investors weighed another restructuring at Alcoa (AA 30.43 +1.24) against confirmation that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp sold 14 mln shares of General Motors (GM 31.09 -1.52) this week. The underlying bullish tone responsible for lifting blue chips nearly 10% over the last four months resurfaced late in the day, however, to sideline the bears just enough to inch the Dow into the green.

The S&P 500 was also a bit sluggish all day, having posting gains in 10 out of the last 12 sessions. The S&P 500 traded essentially in a two-point range all day, but a late-day turnaround in the influential Financials sector helped the broader market to more than merely ride the coattails of a 9% surge in shares of Dell (DELL 27.13 +2.31) into another winning session.

Last night, Dell topped Wall Street estimates, garnering multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases and helping the Nasdaq continue its outperformance. Since the tech bellwether was a source of concern for investors after delaying its report last week, its Q3 surprise provided some additional comfort since growth concerns within the sector had left some questioning the sustainability of tech valuations. Some upbeat analyst commentary boosting shares of Yahoo! (YHOO 28.53 +1.39) 5.1% and renewed enthusiasm in chip stocks gave the Technology sector an additional boost.

With AAA expecting 38.3 mln Americans to travel 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday, and millions more expected to preserve Black Friday's reputation as one of the busiest retail shopping days of the year, falling oil prices were another focal point Wednesday. Crude for January delivery fell 1.5% to $59.27/bbl after the EIA reported a large increase in weekly crude supplies and a surprise build in gasoline inventories.

Fortunately for investors initially struggling to look past an unexpected decline in consumer sentiment, oil's decline eventually helped participants look past the absence of leadership from one of the biggest contributors to earnings growth on the S&P 500 over the last several quarters -- Energy. DJ30 +5.36 NASDAQ +11.14 SP500 +3.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1502/1502/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1262/1987/1.28 bln

3:30 pm : After briefly turning positive, the Dow is back below the flat line with only 30 minutes left in the trading day. Even if the blue-chip index does garner enough momentum to close in positive territory, which is very likely given the underlying bullish tone seen in stocks over the last four months, it is worth noting that below average volume due to the holiday-shortened week lends little conviction behind the day's action no matter what the outcome. To wit, the NYSE did not see 1.0 bln shares exchange hands until 30 minutes ago while the Nasdaq didn't eclipse the 1.0 bln share mark until 2:00 ET. DJ30 -1.70 NASDAQ +10.54 SP500 +2.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1451/1499/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1292/1928/1.08 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to move in a sluggish manner as the blue chip averages remain range bound. The tech-heavy Composite, though, has recently broken out of its narrow range and is now up 0.4%. However, it's not all that surprising to see the Nasdaq continue to outpace the Dow and S&P 500 to the upside since it has done so for three straight months and is on pace to do so again this month, enjoying a November gain of more than 4.0%... so far.DJ30 -2.14 NASDAQ +10.25 SP500 +2.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1555/1401/1.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1411/1793/996 mln

2:30 pm : The market is still trudging along, with the Dow fighting to keep losses to a minimum while the S&P 500 clings to the smallest of gains. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line. All afternoon, advancers on the NYSE have held the same 17-to-14 edge over decliners while declining issues on the Nasdaq have held the same 15-to-13 margin over advancing issues. While a greater number of decliners typically reflects a bearish bias, the Nasdaq continues to post a modest gain as a more than 2-to-1 ratio of up to down volume, due in large part to nearly 70 mln Dell shares already exchanging hands and with the bellwether being up 10%, paints a more accurate picture. DJ30 -9.07 NASDAQ +6.98 SP500 +1.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1563/1360/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol

2:00 pm : Equities continue to trade sideways with few catalysts to send them more aggressively in either direction. To put things in perspective with respect to the lack of conviction on the part of buyers and sellers, consider that the S&P 500 has essentially traded in a 2-point range all day. As has been the case since the start of the session, Alcoa (AA 30.57 +1.38) sits atop the Dow's list of winners, but 16 out of 30 components still posting losses leaves the Dow in jeopardy of closing out the week on a downbeat note.DJ30 -6.17 NASDAQ +6.87 SP500 +1.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1528/1389/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1453/1721/846 mln


Have a great holiday! :hi:

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OllieLotte]

33. Depends where you live.

Some markets I'm sure there is a bubble. Others no.