STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 24

[ozymandius]

Friday November 24, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 787 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2158 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1864 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1825
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 22, 2006

Dow... 12,326.95 +5.36 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,465.98 +11.14 (+0.45%)
S&P 500... 1,406.09 +3.28 (+0.23%)
Gold future... 635.40 +0.30 (+0.05%)
30-Year Bond 4.65% -0.01 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.57% -0.01 (-0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

ECONOMIC REPORTS AND WHITE HOUSE SAY ECONOMY WILL SLOW

Investors are jamming the exit doors for the U.S. dollar this morning as three economic reports came out with a negative bias, with the only positive report coming from the Energy Department. Stock prices are struggling to move higher from yesterday’s close and bond prices are catching a modest bid to push yields lower with the economic slowdown moving into the spotlight. Most investors, including myself, expected lower volatility today going into the holiday weekend, but this development in the foreign exchange market is quite significant. The dollar is really getting whacked! Yesterday the U.S. dollar index closed at 85.12, but this morning it gapped-down to open at 84.77 and is still getting pounded lower to 84.32, touching a six-month low versus the euro.

The first surprise that seemed to have the biggest impact on the dollar was the increase in unemployment claims from 309,000 to 321,000. Analysts’ consensuses were looking for a number closer to 310,000. To add fuel to the fire, Alcoa announced they would be sending another 13,000 workers to the unemployment lines with a reduction of workforce. The unemployment numbers hit the dollar, but stock futures were not affected much.

Thirty minutes before the bell rang on the floor of the NYSE the University of Michigan released their index of consumer sentiment. Last month the index had a reading of 93.6 and analysts were expecting 93.3 for November, but the number came in lower than expected at 92.1. The slumping consumer confidence numbers aided the dollar decline, but this time around stock futures also moved lower.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[acmejack]

3. The post election revisionism.

We knew it had to come. These people's numbers have become a complete joke. Everyone knows the first set of figures they release never have any credibility whatsoever!

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rebounds towards $60 after drop

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose towards $60 a barrel on Friday in trade muted by the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend, after tumbling on a rise in stockpiles in the world's top oil consumer.

Prices had dropped nearly $1 on Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed crude stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels last week, much more than expected, adding to already ample supplies.

"It's been pretty weak recently so maybe a rally is not unexpected," said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Financial. "In general, prices have got further to fall."

U.S. crude was up 48 cents at $59.72 a barrel. London Brent gained 54 cents to $59.89 at 1110 GMT.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.68 Change -0.76 (-0.90%)

Carry Trade Liquidation Hits the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Carry_Trade_Liquidation_Hits_the_1164232768669.html

US Dollar – Traders banked their four day rolls at the close of business yesterday and began a massive liquidation out of carry trades that sent the US dollar sliding to its lowest level against the Euro in 14 months. Just as everyone has settled into the notion that it would be a quiet trading week, volatility spiked and currencies began to move. Given that many US and Japanese traders have left early for the holidays, which is quite common this time of the year, the lack of significant liquidity is sure to have played a major role in today’s exaggerated price action. The dollar’s biggest drop was against the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, both of which are very popular carry trades. Looking ahead, we want to warn that the combination of a depreciating dollar and a bleaker US economic outlook could resurrect talk of reserve diversification by central banks. This was the same case in 2004 when talk of reserve diversification was at its peak as the Euro surged from 1.22 to 1.3660 in a matter of 3.5 months. With the market so dollar bearish, any talk of reserve diversification could take the EUR/USD above 1.30. According to an interesting price study that we published as a special report today on DailyFX.com, over the past 20 years, the US dollar depreciated against the Euro 15 out of those 20 years during the month of December. The seasonality is even more apparent if we zoom into the past 12 years, where there were only two instances that the US dollar managed to rally in the last month of year. Meanwhile only minor economic data was released today. Weekly mortgage applications dropped last week by 3.7 percent, erasing most of the prior week’s gains. Jobless claims ticked higher, bringing the 4 week average to 317k, which signals that payrolls could be a bit softer in November. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence index was also revised down from 92.3 to 92.1 as consumers were slightly less optimistic about the current economy.

...more...

SSI - Extreme Short Positioning Signals Dollar Weakness

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/fxcm_speculative_sentiment_index/SSI___Extreme_Short_Positioning_1164234980286.html

EURUSD - The ratio of speculative longs to shorts is negative 4.05 as 80% of the currently open orders are short. Traders positioning flipped to net short in October and has remained negative since then, coinciding with a substantial 300 pips appreciation in the currency pair. Today, long orders are 24% lower than yesterday and 19.7% weaker since last week. Short orders are 25.4% higher than yesterday and 35.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.1% stronger than yesterday and 23.2% above its monthly average. The SSI signals more EURUSD strength since historically the ratio has been working as contrarian indicator and has been particularly accurate during trending markets

<snip>

USDJPY - The ratio of longs to shorts is 1.42 as 58.7% of the currently open orders are long. The USD/JPY sentiment has remained mostly net short since June 2006 but recently flipped to net long ahead of the cruel carry trade unwind on Wednesday. Long orders are 39.1% higher than yesterday and 78.2% stronger since last week. Short orders are 19.0% lower than yesterday and 20.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.3% stronger than yesterday and 18.2% above its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI signals further USDJPY weakness.

...more...

Seasonality: How Does the US Dollar Perform Over the Month of December?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Seasonality__How_Does_the_US_1164235705336.html

As many technical analysis traders will attest, patterns have and do form in the financial markets. The definition of Seasonality is that patterns occur predictably at given times of the year. Therefore it should come as no surprise then that there is also an interesting pattern in the US dollar’s behavior in the month of December.


Euro – US Dollar (EUR/USD)

Over the past 20 years, historical analysis indicates that from December 1st to December 31st, the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar 15 out of 20 times, which is roughly 75 percent of the total sample. The seasonality is stronger if we zoom into the last 12 years where the currency appreciated 10 out of the 12 samples. (Synthetic euro prices were used prior to January 1999). There are many reasons to explain this, but the most obvious may be year end repatriation out of US dollar assets. More specifically, the data indicates that the Euro gained on average, 3 percent during the positive months and lost just 1.41 percent during the negative months. This suggests that even if we have a strong holiday shopping season in the US, first off, the effect on the currency may not be seen until January and secondly, any optimism about potential sales that is generated in December may not be reflected in the US dollar’s price action that month.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

7. China Raises Red Flag On Dollar

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/2006/11/24/dollar-china-wu-markets-currency-cx_po_1124markets01.html

Americans may be spending their dollars with merry abandon as the Christmas shopping season begins this Black Friday, and that might be a good short-term strategy: the greenback slid on the foreign exchange markets after a Chinese central banker expressed fears about depreciation of the U.S. currency.

“The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for East Asian reserve assets," wrote Wu Xiaoling, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, in an academic paper. Wu is ranked by Forbes as the 35th-most-powerful woman in the world.

By early in the London afternoon, the euro cost $1.3081, up from a $1.2951 close on Thursday. American markets were shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. The British pound rose to $1.9319 from $1.9156. The dollar also fell to 115.72 yen from 116.14 and to 1.2100 Swiss francs from 1.2234.

Underscoring the potential for U.S. inflation in a depreciating dollar, an ounce of gold cost $645.60, up from $630.80 on Thursday.

Wu’s comments marked the second time this month that a Chinese central banker had made dollar-wary comments. On Nov. 9, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, was quoted as saying that China has plans to diversify its assets into “many instruments,” presumably moving away from the dollar.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

9. Euro hits 19-month high as dollar sinks

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39045.2492592593-885009881&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

The dollar sank across the board on Friday, with the euro hitting a 19-month high against the US currency on rising eurozone interest rate expectations, while comments from China also caused heavy selling. The single currency rose as high as $1.3085 against the dollar, exceeding its previous high of the year by more than a cent. Recent economic data has indicated continuing strength in the eurozone economy, while the US appears to be heading towards a slowdown. German consumer prices looked likely to add to this picture as six of the country’s states reported rising inflation trends. Added to Thursday’s stronger-than-expected Ifo business confidence survey, interest rate expectations moved in favour of further gains for the euro. “There is scope for further advances in the interest rate market in our view, with risks to the European Central Bank rate outlook on the upside,” said Henrik Gullberg at Calyon investment bank. “This should further the bullish euro environment.”

/..

[Ghost Dog]

10. Bourses under pressure from euro surge

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39045.3298263889-885013049&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Export-oriented stocks came under heavy fire in Europe on Friday as the euro rose to its highest level against the dollar for 19 months. Industrial sectors such as carmakers suffered the biggest falls, while financials were hit by concerns that equity market losses could hurt profits. The euro briefly pushed above the $1.31 level to hit its highest level against the dollar since April 2005 amid widespread expectations that eurozone interest rates have further to rise. The strength of the single currency sparked fears about profitability at Europe’s leading exporters, particularly the carmakers. DaimlerChrysler, the German-US manufacturer, fell 2.2 per cent to €45.36, while Volkswagen lost 2 per cent to €81.32, Peugeot fell 1.9 per cent to €47.60, BMW shed 2.3 per cent to €43 and Fiat gave up 2 per cent to €14.21. By midday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 1 per cent at 1,447.19, while the Xetra dax in Frankfurt was 1.3 per cent lower and the CAC 40 in Paris was off 0.9 per cent.

[Ghost Dog]

11. Tokyo stocks fall sharply on heavy selling on exporters

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061124/kyodo/d8lj9lio0.html

(Kyodo) _ Tokyo stocks fell sharply Friday as exporters' shares suffered heavy losses on concerns that a strong yen against the U.S. dollar would trim their earnings, and selling eventually spread to stocks in other sectors.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost 179.63 points from Wednesday, or 1.13 percent, to end at 15,734.60. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was down 14.83 points, or 0.96 percent, to 1,538.04. The market was closed Thursday for a national holiday.

The benchmark Nikkei briefly fell to the lowest level since late September. Stocks remained volatile throughout the day amid slow trading ahead of weekend.

Carmakers, high-tech and other export-oriented issues took a beating as the U.S. dollar fell to a two-month low Friday in Tokyo, trading mostly in the lower 116 yen level.

/...

[spotbird]

12. That's the thing

if the international markets are falling as well, will the dollar loss offset the decline in the foreign asset?

There is no hope for the little guy who only wants to protect his retirement account.

[Ghost Dog]

15. What to Expect for the US Dollar on Monday

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/What_to_Expect_for_the_1164392166518.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

US Dollar – The last few trading days were suppose to be quiet with most US and Japanese dealers out for the holiday. However it has proven to be anything but that. In fact, we have not seen this degree of volatility in at least a month. The US dollar has completely melted down with the Euro and British pound hitting a yearly high against and the Japanese Yen hitting a 2 month high. The triggering of stop loss orders on Friday has intensified carry trade liquidation in a low liquidity environment. The EUR/USD’s move from 1.2975 to 1.3075 in 10 minutes at the European open is a clear confirmation that flow rather than fundamentals is to blame. There was no US data released today and the financial markets that were open all closed early because of the holiday. Comments from Chinese officials about the need for more flexibility in the Yuan and the country’s currency policy are certainly not helping. Interestingly enough, this was exactly what happened in 2004 as well. The US dollar began to breakdown after two weeks of consolidation on the eve before Thanksgiving. Then on Thanksgiving Day, the EUR/USD rallied 100 points. The move extended even further on the Friday after Thanksgiving and on the Monday when everyone returned from their holidays, the move actually failed to extend much further. Instead, the pair consolidated for a few days as EUR/USD longs took more profits off the table while traders that were short banked their massive losses and quietly licked their wounds. Unlike the past week, we do have a very busy trading week ahead of us. There are a number of central bank officials speaking from around the world including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who will be talking about the US economic outlook. Data wise, we are expecting data from the manufacturing and housing market sector along with consumer confidence and third quarter GDP.

Euro and Swiss Franc – In the last two trading days, the EUR/USD has surged over 200 points. The currency pair is now trading above what we suspect is the European Central Bank’s comfort zone. With only 7 trading days to go before the ECB meeting, if the EUR/USD does not fall back below 1.30, the central bank has no choice but to signal to the market that the December rate hike will be their last and that 3.50 percent interest rates is the peak. Not only does the strong Euro pose a risk to growth, but it also relieves inflationary pressures, which will give the ECB a good reason to shift gears. German exporters actually attempted to downplay the move by saying that they have no problem with the Euro above 1.30, but they do want to see the ECB take action if the currency manages to rally up to 1.40. Whether German exporters like it or not, the strength of the Euro will have an impact on their businesses. Just as New Zealand reported a record trade deficit yesterday due to the strength of the kiwi, we expect the Eurozone to also begin to see deteriorating economic data, particularly as it pertains to trade. Economic data released this morning confirmed that inflationary pressures are indeed subsiding with German import prices falling for the second month in a row. French business confidence also came out softer, which is hardly a surprise given the recent trend of weaker economic data. What was surprising was the uptick in the German IFO report on Thursday. Businesses were more optimistic about the future which indicates that they expected a continued acceleration in economic activity. In the week ahead, The Eurozone is also releasing a number of key data releases such as French and German unemployment, German retail sales, Eurozone CPI as well as regional PMI surveys. Meanwhile the Swiss Franc has also staged an impressive rally today, confirming that carry trade liquidation is the main theme in the markets. EUR/CHF has sold off for seven consecutive days, which is something that we have not seen since the beginning of the year and is particularly rare for a currency that usually range trades. The week ahead also delivers a busy calendar for the tiny country, with the KoF leading indicators, CPI and GDP the most important releases.

British Pound – The weakness of the US dollar has pushed the British pound higher for the sixth straight trading day despite slightly weaker GDP data this morning. Even though the quarterly growth rate remained unchanged at 0.7 percent, the annualized growth rate fell from 2.8 to 2.7 percent, led primarily by a decrease in consumer spending and a sharp drop in exports. It seems that the strength of the British pound may also be catching up to the economy. However unlike the Eurozone, the UK is less export dependent which means that the strength of its currency should have a smaller effect on the economy. There are only a handful of releases for the UK next week, most of which are housing related.

Japanese Yen – The Japanese Yen is now trading on the 115 handle against the US dollar, which is something that we have not seen since the beginning of September. The fact that the Japanese Yen actually sold off against every other currency indicates that the liquidation is primarily out of dollar based carry trades. There are a number of speeches by Bank of Japan officials next week that can decide whether we will see a near term bottom in USD/JPY. If Fukui and Noda reiterate the comments made by BoJ member Fukuma overnight, then we could see support come into the currency pair. Fukuma said that there is no preset timing with regards to monetary policy. The BoJ is continuing to play this game of giving the market a little and then taking it all back, which hurts their credibility.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The commodity currencies are also stronger as commodity prices tick higher. The $10 rise in gold is particularly beneficial for the Australian dollar while the possibility of tax cuts suggested by Canada’s Finance Minister last night has helped to cause a massive rally in the Canadian dollar. Even though the trade deficit in New Zealand hit a horridly new record high, the rise in the other commodity currencies has pushed the Kiwi higher as well. The main economic releases from the commodity bloc next week will be trade data from Australia and Canada along with Canada’s GDP and employment reports.

[Ghost Dog]

16. THE U.S. DOLLAR IS THE WEEK'S BIGGEST TURKEY

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2006/1124.html

While Americans were busy digesting their Thanksgiving feasts, the rest of the world was barfing up dollars. As a result of our massive trade deficits, foreigners certainly have their bellies full of them. This week’s action in the Forex markets indicates that they may have finally eaten their fill. Unfortunately, the bad taste will likely linger as the dollar’s rout has only just begun.

As American consumers hit the stores this black Friday, few will have noticed that the most significant mark-down occurred in the value of their currency. If anything can be said to have been blackened this Friday it’s the U.S. dollar. While the media remains focused on the dollars Americans are irresponsibly spending, the real story lies in the loss in value of those dollars that foreigners are foolishly saving. The losses are particularly more pronounced among foreign central banks, most notably China, whose foreign exchange reserves, the vast majority being U.S. dollars, recently eclipsed 1 trillion. When foreigners finally decide that they have had enough, their reluctance to accumulate additional dollars will mean that America’s perpetual shopping spree will finally come to a screeching halt.

...

At the risk of over using the term, one conundrum is the relative strength in the bond market given the dollar’s recent weakness. From our creditors’ perspectives, the only thing worse than holding dollars is holding future claims to dollars, which is what bonds in fact represent. When foreigners begin factoring ten percent plus annual dollar declines into U.S. bond yields, bond prices will head south fast.

It also never ceases to amaze me how U.S. investors can be so fixated on stock prices yet remain oblivious to what those prices actually denote. Stock prices of course represent quantities of dollars. Therefore, true stock market values actually depend on the purchasing power of the dollar. Concentrating on the former while ignoring the latter is one of the biggest mistakes most investors make.

Unfortunately the technical outlook for the dollar, and by extension that of the entire U.S. economy and the financial markets it supports, is rapidly deteriorating. The dollar Index, now trading near 83.5, has broken though some key support levels and the next test will likely be its all time record lows of just under 80. If that test fails, as it most likely will, look out below. Once the dollar moves into uncharted territory, the selling could intensify, with the dollar index trading below 70 in short order. My ultimate target for that index is 40, which would literally cut the dollar’s value in half. I think the entire move could occur in just two years. Again, putting that decline into perspective, it is the equivalent of over a 6,600 point decline in the Dow. Of course this assumes the Fed finally gets religion and Congress and the President heed its sermon. If not, and hyperinflation ensues, the dollar index could fall far lower, perhaps even breaking into the single digits before bottoming out.

/...

See also 'big picture' currenvy charts here: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2006/1124.html

eg. USD index:



...

The charts of other major currencies are provided to give frame of reference to the dollar and its fate. The Euro and Swissy could be considered anti-dollars in that the Euro appears to be the primary challenger to the world's reserve currency and the Swiss Franc is commonly thought of as a note that represents everything that the American debt note no longer does. Then we have the "commodity" or "resource" currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars. I do not see a whole lot of bullish there and if I were a commodity bull I would be taking note and using caution beyond the near term. Finally, the slap happy Japanese Yen, which despite official efforts to the contrary, maintains a bullish stance to these eyes.

As always, we will watch for signs of hyperbole in the mass public mind set and remain aware that the dollar's reign as a functional reserve currency may not be over quite yet. We will also watch the Yen for a bullish turnaround, which would have global liquidity implications. The story the currencies are telling, at least to this writer's eyes is one where we get a strong anti-dollar drum beat in the near-term rejuvenating the "inflation trade" even as "commodity" currencies top out or continue to deteriorate, the dollar reverses off major lows, the Yen rises and we enter a period of slowing economic growth and a contraction in the global economy. It is either that or if the US Dollar breaks 80, we are talking Banana Republic or worse, Weimar.

/...

[UpInArms]

5. pre-opening blather (bloody and thin)

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.3.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.7. Still looking like a significantly lower open.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.5: Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.2. Futures show no sign of resilience in early trading. There is little market moving news. Oil is up about $0.60 to $59.90 a barrel.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.6. The stock market is reflecting a nervous tone as the holiday shopping season begins. Futures are sharply lower despite any significant market moving news. The dollar is lower, but that has not been a market factor for a long time. There are no economic or earnings releases today.

[UpInArms]

6. 9:32 and plunging

Dow 12,260.86 66.09 (0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,450.82 15.16 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,399.59 6.50 (0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.546% 0.022

NYSE Volume 60,716,000
Nasdaq Volume 44,150,000

[spotbird]

8. Blame game

This will be blamed on fears caused by the incoming Democratic congress.

[UpInArms]

13. 12:22 EST numbers and blather - not so red now

Dow 12,298.11 28.84 (0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,463.94 2.04 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,403.76 2.33 (0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542% 0.026

NYSE Volume 648,406,000
Nasdaq Volume 519,731,000

12:00 pm : Indices falter as oil pops back over $60 a barrel on talk of another minor OPEC production cut in December. The NYSE actives list is led by Lucent (2.60 +0.01) as the Wall Street Journal online discussed the CEO's recovery plan. Time Warner (20.54 +0.23) and United Microelectronics (3.43 +0.22) follow although there are now news items on either today. Nasdaq actives are led by Sirius Satellite (4.28 -0.01) and Level 3 Communications (5.15 -0.06), followed by usual suspects Intel, Sun Microsystems, and Microsoft.DJ30 -34.36 NASDAQ -2.98 SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1472/1305/473.2 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1267/1731/597.6

11:30 am : The indices continue to climb toward unchanged in fairly boring action. Commodity sectors in general are the strongest, againstwhich there are no significantly weak sectors but rather a broad array of sectors that are down slightly. Nasdaq and NYSE now both show more advancing issues than declining issues. DJ30 -21.23 NASDAQ -0.01 SP500 -1.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1389/404.9 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1259/1706/513.9

11:00 am : Volatility remains surprisingly low given the light volume. Nevertheless, the resiliency shown in recent weeks is apparent again today, as the indices have firmed steadily after lower open. Most noteworthy is that there was little follow-through selling. Advancers now lead decliners on the NYSE. There has been very little intra-day news driving the market, and no major sector moves since the open. The 10-year bond yield has dropped to 4.53%, approaching the important 4.5% level. DJ30 -17.06 NASDAQ -1.61 SP500 -1.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1103/320.9 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1358/1513/407.2

[UpInArms]

14. closing numbers and blather

Dow 12,280.17 46.78 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,460.26 5.72 (0.23%)
S&P 500 1,400.95 5.14 (0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.548% 0.02

NYSE Volume 834,935,000
Nasdaq Volume 681,501,000

1:15 pm : It was a very quiet day in the stock market. The indices all opened significantly lower. The dollar dropped sharply in European trading. That knocked European stocks lower and produced a negative tone for the US open. There were no economic releases or earnings reports, and virtually no corporate news.

The markets began to claw their way back through the day, reflecting the resilience that has been apparent in recent weeks. The S&P and Nasdaq went briefly positive, but then got knocked back on talk of another round of OPEC oil production cuts in December. That pushed oil back above $60 a barrel and stock indices retreated to post modest losses on the day. There was also a quick bout of selling at the close, a relatively uncommon event in recent sessions.

Volume was understandably light today, but there was not much associated volatility. There were few stocks that were caught up in day trading pushes, and the most active lists ended with few surprised or big movers.

Gold stocks were the biggest gainers today, benefitting from the weak dollar. Commodities in general fared well. Amongst the S&P sectors, utilities were up 0.14% and materials 0.07%. Those were the only two up sectors.

Retail stocks were weak, perhaps on concerns that it will be a mixed season for holiday shopping. Early reports today focused on discounting from major retailers. Wal-Mart (47.90 -0.13 ) and Target (57.35 -1.07 ) ended the day lower. Among the S&P sectors, healthcare at -0.48% was weakest, followed by consumer discretionary at -0.43% due to the retailers. Energy, although oil stocks were up early, ended with a decline of 0.28%.

The consumer staples sector ended -0.29%, information technology -0.22%, financials -0.26%, industrials -0.31%, and telecommunications -0.01%. There were few major market movers in the sectors. DJ30 -46.78 NASDAQ -5.72 R2K -0.08%% SOX -0.39%% SP500 -5.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 658.8/1278/658.7 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1312/1753/831.1

12:30 pm : The markets have stabilized heading into the final half hour of trading on this shortened day. Next week the focus will remain on reports from retailers. The only earnings reports of note will be from Dollar General and Heinz. The economic calendar is a bit more exciting, with durables goods orders and existing home sales reports on Tuesday, a GDP revision and new home sales data on Wednesday, the PCE deflator on Thursday, and the ISM index on Friday. DJ30 -25.71 NASDAQ -1.44 SP500 -2.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1486/1315/540.9 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1312/1722/675.4

Hoping everyone has a great weekend :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

17. WARNING: Expect Reports Of A Bad Black Friday For Retailers

(Late update: advice to navigators) DU observation/comment thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2796308

If my store is any indication, expect the nation's retailers to announce a slower-than-expected Black Friday sales day.

I was at my Wal-Mart store when the doors opened at 5 a.m. today. It was the usual mob scene, with people literally running into the store to grab whatever items were on sale - HDTVs, toys, dvd players, ect.

It was a madhouse for about 2 hours, then, suddenly, the flow stopped.

It became just another busy day. Busy, but not unbelievable like I was expecting.

Right before I left I saw the manager looking into the computer to see what sales were. At 4 p.m. the store had done just over $400,000.

"Really bad," is what he said to me.

Sales were down from last year. We were expecting to break a million, but it looks like the store will struggle to get $600,000.

/..