NYT/AP: Black Friday Sales Up 6 Percent From '05; Wal-Mart is exception

[DeepModem Mom]

Black Friday Sales Up 6 Percent From '05
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: November 25, 2006

NEW YORK (AP) -- The nation's retailers had a strong start to the holiday shopping season, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that tracks sales at mall-based stores. One big exception was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which said it expects to report same-store sales in November below its already lackluster forecast.

According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 45,000 mall-based retail outlets, total sales rose 6 percent to $8.96 billion on Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, compared to the same day a year ago.

''Although we anticipated a solid consumer turnout for Black Friday, this data shows an even larger increase than expected as consumers proved they were willing to spend,'' said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, in a statement.

Wal-Mart, however, estimated it will post a 0.1 percent decline in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, in November. That's slightly below its original projections for flat sales for the month, compared to the year-ago period. The results cover the four-week period that ended through Friday. Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health.

J.C. Penney Co. said in a separate statement released Saturday that the holiday shopping season was ''off to a good start.''...

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Black-Friday-Sales.html

[NMMNG]

1. Poor Wal-mart

:rofl:

[lizerdbits]

2. Boo hoo!

I feel so bad for Walmart! :eyes:

[CueST]

3. Surely

that little website snafu didn't help. I, for one, am losing TONS of sleep... :sarcasm:

[aquart]

7. website snafu? what did I miss?

[OhioChick]

17. Here you go:

Online traffic stalls Wal-Mart's Web site
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003446852_bizbriefs25.html

[newyawker99]

19. Hi CueST!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[CueST]

24. Thank you kindly.

Pleasure to be here, amongst likeminded friends.

[OHdem10]

4. A Greenspan once explained

you can get a good picture of how the economy is really
doing by watching how WalMart, Jacque Penne', Sears, and the 1st
level Federated Stores.Primarily WallMart Sears and Penneys.
If these stores are doing really well, then MainStreet is
doing fine--If not doing so well, neither is Mainstreet.

[w4rma]

12. Greenspan is a corporatist. That kind of fallacy gives cover to people who

want to boost the profits of big business (Wall Street) and don't care about wiping out the vast majority of the small, ****Main Street**** businesses.

[maryallen]

13. What Main Street?

My town has nothing but empty shells where stores once flourished.

Wal-Mart had NOT a little part in creating that situation.

[TexasLawyer]

5. sales v. profits

It's important to look at whether and to what extent increased sales contribute to retailer profits.

Many of the give-aways and come-ons that were used to entice thousands of shoppers were loss leaders, sold at no profit or at a loss to the store.

[Tempest]

20. Although sales are up, profits are going to be down

Stores heavily discounted this season. Some stores had up to 60% off on a wide variety of goods, mostly in the high profit electronics section.

[targetpractice]

6. Ha Hah!

[skids]

8. So in other words, sales flatlined.

6% is about the real rate of inflation (some would argue up to about 8%).

So this means sales were flat, for those of us who know the value of a dollar.

[smoogatz]

9. On the rare occasion I venture into our local Wal Mart

looking for some item not available anywhere else in town, I'm always surprised by how down-at-the-heels it looks; the aisles are narrow and sometimes poorly stocked, the lighting isn't so great, and it's not dirty so much as grubby--as if it hasn't had anything more than a superficial wipe-down since opening day. The customers never look happy, and the shopping experience is in no way "fun." Given my druthers, and all politics aside, I'd go to Target (or a locally owned retail establishment) every time.

[THUNDER HANDS]

10. i called it...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2796308&mesg_id=2796308

[rocktivity]

11. CANCEL CHRISTMAS!

Yesterday, I wondered if Walmart was the only store that saw a dip in sales--now I've got the answer. First Election '06, and now this? I'm getting my Christmas presents a month early!

:bounce:
rocknation

[The Count]

21. You're one of them anti-Christmas fiends O'Really warned me about?

Now I know the danger is real! ;-)

[rocktivity]

26. Oh, that's FINE talk coming from a vampire!

:rofl::rofl::rofl:
rocknation

[The Count]

27. I'll have you know I like any night, silent or not!

So there!

[EVDebs]

14. High gas prices and overextended, huh ? But the stock is "up"

so all those heirs are livin' large. And that's what counts. (<---that should be a question, but it's not).

[Barrett808]

15. But isn't this largely due to extraordinarily early and large discounts?

Can this really be sustained through the "shopping season"?

[VegasWolf]

18. That is EXACTLY the question. These are very savvy shoppers going after

huge discounts, not the average joe binge shopping. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out AND as Texas Lawyer says, it depends on real profit after discounts. Last year started off well, but stores had to keep offering deep discounts the entire season to keep customers coming in. The end was a wash.

[Barrett808]

28. Economist Nouriel Roubini agrees:

Recession Watch: A Few More Data Points and Analyses
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 26, 2006

Here are some news and analyses from the Thanksgiving weekend.

- Wal-Mart Same-Store Sales Down 0.1% in November: Wal-Mart may be the canary in the coal mine for the US consumer.
Join Our Team

- Recession Risk Rising above 50% according to the Fed Yield Curve Model as discussed in a new study by the Federal Reserve of San Francisco

- Recession: The Stage is Set says Richard Arvedlund, Founder, Cypress Capital Management in an interview with Barron.

- Dollar Drops to 20-Month Low Against Euro on Speculation Growth Is Slowing

- Foreclosures hit a new high in October

- Web sales down on Black Friday

- Beware: Heavy store traffic doesn't mean huge sales

So, what should we make of the preliminary (not final yet) data that Black Friday sales were up 6% relative to 2005? Data for one day are of limited value. Also, given the very aggressive discounting of some items (electronics especially) by some major retailers one would have expected a surge in demand given the special and temporary sales going on over the weekend.

The issue is whether the surge in spending in one day is a signal of a persistent increase in spending over the holiday season or a signal of intertemporal shift forward of some holiday sales that will leave the rest of the holiday season weak. I read the evidence as consistent with the latter hypothesis based on the following facts:

- 57% of consumers did not shop during the Thanksgiving weekend;

- "fewer people shopped, with about 140 million visiting stores during the four days including Thanksgiving, down from 145 million last year";

- consumers snapped only heavily discounted sales items and literally ignored all the rest: ``It was shocking because people were only buying doorbusters,'' said Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates. Employees with his New York-based consulting and investment-banking firm visited 50 retailers over the weekend. ``You can't have people just come in and buy doorbusters and leave.'';

- the National Retail Federation said that sales during November and December may rise 5 percent relative to last year. But with CPI inflation hovering close to 4% y-o-y this represents only a 1% real increase in sales.

And, as reported by Bloomberg, expect further bad news from the housing market this coming week: "The erosion of the nation's housing market extended into the fourth quarter, posing a risk that the weakness will permeate the rest of the U.S. economy"

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/159479

[LiberalFighter]

16. Easy solution 4 WalMart - replace their stores with new stores

[jmowreader]

22. Call me suspicious of these numbers

ShopperTrac RCT only deals in mall-based stores. This means you're dealing with a lot of real small shops, plus a relative handful of fairly high-end department stores, plus Sears.

Wal-Mart isn't in RCT's stats. Neither are Target, the Kmart part of Sears Holdings, Best Buy, Circuit City, any of the office supply megachains, either Lowe's or Home Depot...you know, a SUBSTANTIAL part of the retail economy.

I kinda expected to see these results from RCT because, except for Sears and the jewelers, those shops don't specialize in ultra-spendy items. Go into...oh, the Gap. What's a pair of pants at the Gap? Thirty to fifty dollars for most of their styles (I went to their website--my pants get torn to hell in short order at work, so I buy Target Specials) and that's not overly outrageous as a gift. Especially because the mall stores discount shit a TON on Black Friday.

If you add the RCT numbers into a big soupcon of retail sales figures--mall, big box, mom & pop--you'll probably find that Black Friday was a down day compared to last year, and it was suckin' last year. Thanks, George.

[tanyev]

23. Guess those fundies really are heeding the call to boycott Wal-Mart.

They'll certainly take credit for it.

[sandnsea]

25. Wal-mart is dingy and nasty

I had to go in one yesterday because it was the only store between here and where I needed to be to pick up stuff for an unexpected visit with grandkids. The store was nearly empty, and dirty and nasty as well. Not even a pleasant shopping experience anymore. Depressed low-income people, who aren't making out in Bush's economy, aren't exactly fun to shop around.

[KSU Wildcat]

29. Myself.. I do not need Walmart

and all of their bargains and cheap shoddy merchandise. But I am more fortunate than a lot of other people. A lot of not so well to do people do. I can well understand their plight. When I was going to school and paying off student loans I had to stretch the dollar. I shopped at Walmart and other discount stores.

There is a need for Walmart and other discount stores as well as the upper end stores. I went shopping yesterday and noticed the Walmart parking lot was full and the mall where I do most of my shopping was crammed full of people shopping.

They may have not been making much money but they were doing a whale of a business.