STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 28

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 28, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 783 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2162 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1868 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1829
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 27, 2006

Dow... 12,121.79 -158.38 (-1.29%)
Nasdaq... 2,405.92 -54.34 (-2.21%)
S&P 500... 1,381.90 -19.05 (-1.36%)
Gold future... 647.10 +11.70 (+1.81%)
30-Year Bond 4.62% -0.01 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% -0.01 (-0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE DOLLAR

While America celebrated Thanksgiving, foreign exchange markets behaved in an unruly fashion with the U.S. Dollar Index precipitously dropping to 83.60 – falling out of a range between 85.10 and 85.71 which had held for some four weeks between October 26 and November 21.

The following is a synopsis of the Dollar’s predicament - derived largely from the Privateer's most recent weekly newsletter.

This precipitous drop in the Dollar was conveniently attributed, by the mainstream financial press, as reaction to yet another Chinese monetary official making the case for diversification of sovereign Chinese forex reserves – which had ballooned to $U.S. 1 Trillion on November 6.

"Firstly, long-term interest rates are falling (meaning lower returns on bond investments). Secondly, the exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets," Wu said.

Sounds like a credible explanation, doesn’t it?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Briefing Forecast -6.0%
Market Expects -5.0%
Prior 8.3%

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Nov
Briefing Forecast 105.0
Market Expects 106.0
Prior 105.4

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
Briefing Forecast 6.15M
Market Expects 6.14M
Prior 6.18M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

17. Durable Goods Orders fall 8.3% (YEEEEKKKKSSSS!(

U.S. Sept. durable-goods orders revised up to 8.7% vs. 8.3% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. electronics orders down 10.2% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. transportation orders down 21.7% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute
ago

U.S. Oct. core capital equipment orders down 5.1% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. durable-goods orders ex-transportation down 1.7% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. durable-goods shipments up 0.6% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

Biggest decline in durables orders since July 2000 - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. durable goods orders fall 8.3% vs. -4.8% expected - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 28, 2006 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

18. Durable orders fall 8.3% in October, most in 6 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5F1D2AA1%2D98A3%2D4412%2D8CB3%2DBB88CFA86E0E%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by falling order for new airplanes, demand for U.S.-made durable goods fell 8.3% in October, erasing September's 8.7% gain, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. It was the biggest drop in orders for durable goods since July 2000. New orders for civilian aircraft plunged 44.5% last month. Excluding transportation goods, orders fell 1.7%. Orders for core capital goods fell 5.1% in October, the first decline in six months. The 8.3% decline was much greater than the 4.8% drop expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

[Ghost Dog]

34. Consumer confidence declines in Nov

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061128/bs_nm/usa_economy_confidence_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell in November as Americans grew more pessimistic about the job market, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment fell to 102.9 in November, from 105.1 in October.

Economists polled by Reuters on average had forecast a November reading of 106.0.

"A tighter labor market and a more guarded short-term outlook have combined to curb consumers' confidence in November," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

"Despite this retreat in confidence, the overall level of confidence remains favorable and continues to suggest that the economy will expand throughout the first half of next year," Franco said in a statement. <-- :eyes: huh?

It was the lowest reading on the index since August's 99.6.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

35. Consumer confidence unexpectedly falls in Nov.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1128Economy28-ON.html
Associated Press
Nov. 28, 2006 08:09 AM

NEW YORK - Worries about the job market chipped away at Americans' confidence in the economy in November, a private research group said Tuesday, boosting concerns about the important holiday shopping season.

The New York-based Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 102.9 in November from a revised reading of 105.1 in October and was the lowest since August's 100.2. Analysts had expected a reading of 106.

"A tighter labor market and a more guarded short-term outlook have combined to curb consumers' confidence in November," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, in a statement. But she added that despite the retreat, "the overall level of confidence remains favorable and continues to suggest that the economy will expand throughout the first half of next year." -.- Weird. But I guess we're inured by now...

[spotbird]

36. Unexpectedly?

What is unexpected is that it is as high as it is.

[AnneD]

40. You should see the

University of Michigan report-they must have lithium in the water to go with those funny cigaretts they smoke.:eyes:
No wait, they must be surveying Gross Point.:eyes::eyes:

[54anickel]

38. Existing Home Sales Rise, Prices Fall

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061128/homes_sales.html?.v=5

Sales of Existing Homes Post Small Increase but Prices Post Record Decline


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes posted a tiny increase in October but the median home price fell by a record amount. Analysts forecast more price declines in coming months as the once-booming housing market undergoes a painful correction.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that existing home sales edged up 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million last month. It was the first increase after seven consecutive monthly declines.

However, the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

It marked the third straight month that median prices have fallen compared with the same period a year ago, the longest stretch of such declines on record. The median is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he expected home prices to continue falling for the rest of the year as sellers, accustomed to the booming market conditions of previous years, reluctantly cut their prices.

"Many buyers remain on the sidelines," Lereah said. "After a period of price adjustment, we'll see more confidence in the market and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007."

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise to $60.66 a barrel

LONDON - Oil prices rose Tuesday following a report that the Saudi oil minister hinted
OPEC could further reduce output, and heating oil and natural gas rose on forecasts of cold weather in the United States.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 34 cents to $60.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. January Brent crude at London's ICE Futures exchange rose 52 cents to $60.96 a barrel.

A day earlier, prices rose more than $1 a barrel after an attack on an oil facility in
Iraq, which shut the flow of crude oil to a major refinery.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil gained 0.73 cent to $1.7125 per gallon, unleaded gasoline fell 0.37 cent to $1.5900 a gallon and natural gas rose 6.8 cents to $8.066 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Alaska to cut Point Thomson oil leases

JUNEAU, Alaska - Exxon Mobil Corp. is reviewing its legal options in the wake of Alaska's decision to strip it and other oil companies of their leases in the North Slope's Point Thomson oil and gas field.

The state said Monday it was revoking the leases after finding Exxon Mobil failed to come up with a viable plan for developing the field's vast reserves.

Exxon Mobil spokeswoman Susan Reeves said the company was disappointed.

"Exxon Mobil has complied with the Point Thomson lease agreements, the unit agreement and all Alaska statutes and regulations. Any litigation by the state to take back the Point Thomson leases is likely to be protracted," Reeves said.

Other oil companies being stripped of their leases include BP PLC, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061128/ap_on_bi_ge/alaska_oil_5

[Ghost Dog]

30. Oil above $60 as winter approaches

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39049.4113888889-885138870&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Oil prices traded above $60 a barrel on Tuesday, building on gains in the previous session prompted by forecasts for cold weather on the US East coast by the weekend. Sentiment was also supported by comments from China that it would aim to replenish its strategic reserves when oil prices were relatively low. Beijing is thought to have accumulated only a small portion of the 100m barrels that it requires for the first phase of building an oil stockpile. India is considering a possible cut in retail fuel prices in response to political pressure from the government’s communist allies. in June, petrol prices were raised by 9.2 per cent and diesel prices by 6.6 per cent as the government attempted to limit losses for state-run retailers who are not alowed to raise prices without state permission.

/. Sorry, northern-hemisphere-oriented here, most of us.

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures higher after strong losses

LONDON - U.S. stock market futures inched higher on Tuesday following the sharp losses to start the week, with trader attention turning to data on durable-goods orders and existing-home sales and a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.9 of a point at 1,384.60 and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat at 1,779.00. Dow industrials rose 11 points.

U.S. stocks finished sharply lower on Monday on continued pressure for the dollar, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. downbeat sales forecast and concerns over Google Inc.'s valuations. The Dow industrials lost 158 points, the S&P 500 dropped 19 points and the Nasdaq Composite lost 54 points.

International stock markets also lost ground on Tuesday. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong tumbled 2.9 percent, while the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo lost a more modest 0.2 percent. European stocks were flat to lower in late morning trading.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061128/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street_40

[ozymandius]

6. YouTube Coming Soon to Cellphones

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 27 — YouTube is coming to mobile phones — or, to be more precise, a small slice of YouTube is coming to some Verizon Wireless phones.

While its explosively popular Web site is free, YouTube’s phone-based version will require a $15-a-month subscription to a Verizon Wireless service called VCast. And instead of choosing what to watch from a vast library of clips, VCast users will be limited to an unspecified number of videos selected and approved by the companies.

Still, the deal, which the companies plan to announce on Tuesday, marks the mobile-phone debut of YouTube, the video-sharing service owned by Google that many say is already changing the media landscape.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/technology/28tube.html?_r=1&ref=technology&oref=slogin

[ozymandius]

7. Global economic group cuts US growth forecast

DUBLIN -- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecast for US economic growth and expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next year, according to a draft of its latest estimates.

The Paris-based group, in its semi annual economic outlook, by contrast is urging the European Central Bank to keep raising rates as Europe's expansion continues and cautioning the Bank of Japan against lifting borrowing costs before deflation is beaten.

The group reduced its forecast for US growth to 2.4 percent next year from the 3.1 percent prediction in May, accounting for a bigger downturn in US housing markets than anticipated. Home building will continue to decline for "several more quarters," the group said in the draft.

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/11/28/global_economic_group_cuts_us_growth_forecast/

[ozymandius]

8. Ford Pledges Major Assets in Financing

DEARBORN, Mich., Nov. 27 — Executives at the Ford Motor Company have insisted they are willing to bet the company’s future on a turnaround plan put in place earlier this year.

On Monday, they essentially did just that, mortgaging nearly all of Ford’s domestic assets — its plants, office buildings, patents and trademarks — along with stakes in Ford Credit and Volvo, to raise $18 billion.

Ford will use the money, which includes cash and an expanded line of credit, to cover several years of restructuring costs. Under a plan called the Way Forward, Ford expects to eliminate more than 40,000 jobs and close more than a dozen plants.

While other auto companies — including General Motors, earlier this year — have put up manufacturing equipment and other types of collateral over the years to secure loans, Ford has never done so in its 103-year history.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/business/28ford.html

[acmejack]

12. Do you think we should read much into the fact

That it was the Domestic Assets that Ford was willing to gamble here?

[ozymandius]

9. Delta to Allow Retired Pilots to Expand Bankruptcy Claim

Delta Air Lines said yesterday that it had agreed to give its retired pilots an additional $719 million in unsecured claims in its bankruptcy case to help them recoup losses from the termination of the pilot pension plan.

The agreement, which has the support of Delta’s committee of unsecured creditors, would increase the retired pilots’ unsecured claims to roughly $800 million if approved by Federal Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

What retired pilots will actually receive from those claims will not be known until Delta emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection because unsecured creditors generally receive only a fraction of what they are owed.

-cut-

Delta has received court approval to terminate its pilots’ pension plan. Once the plan is terminated, the federal government’s pension insurance agency will take it over and pay Delta pilots who retire a benefit that in many cases will be less than what the pilots expected. Pilots who are already retired also stand to lose some benefits.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/business/28air.html

[ozymandius]

10. Massachusetts Attorney General Is Suing Over `Big Dig' Collapse

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Massachusetts Attorney General Tom Reilly announced a lawsuit against 15 companies including Bechtel/Parsons-Brinkerhoff stemming from a ceiling collapse in Boston's ``Big Dig'' tunnels that killed a woman in July.

The companies named in the civil suit, which is being filed on behalf of the state as well as the Massachusetts Highway Department and Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, were involved in the ``management, design, construction and oversight of the Interstate 90 tunnel,'' which was part of the $14.6 billion Big Dig project, Reilly's office said in a press release.

-cut-

The Big Dig project routes Interstate 93 under downtown Boston in a tunnel and ties the roadway to Interstate 90 and Logan International Airport. Aside from July's fatal collapse, the project has been beset by flooding, debris falling on the roadway and cost overruns. In May, six men were indicted on charges they sold bad concrete to builders.

Reilly's civil lawsuit, which will be filed tomorrow in Suffolk County Superior Court, alleges negligence against the companies and claims that Bechtel/Parsons-Brinkerhoff was grossly negligent. The attorney general, who lost the Democratic nomination for governor, wouldn't say how much in damages the state was seeking from the companies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7ys.K.cRlVA&refer=us

[AnneD]

20. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. This story has hit a particular raw nerve with me. I wrote about this some time ago but because of our drop ins, I'd like to say it again.
Americans are excellent craftsmen. The skill and quality put into the work is on par with others. For example, my brother is not just a welder, he is a master welder and a boiler maker. He has had a long and varied career. One of the things he did which he is the proudest was building subs for the Navy. He not only built, but supervised. He always told me, with great pride, that none of his seams would give way because of poor craftsmanship. He would check other welders work-and he was a tough judge. He said that his team operated with the knowledge that someones life depended on that weld.

He was recently hired to do some important welding on some bridges in Az. The boss loved his work and his work ethic and frequently said that he wished he could clone him. Gradually the work was drying up for him, even though it was a big project. Mind you, my brother lives in Colorado on his horse ranch and was staying with Mom during the week. He finally ask the boss. While he loved my brother's work, he actually said to my brother's face that he could hire several illegal aliens for what he paid my brother. My brother complained about the quality of their work. The boss said that by the time there was a problem with it, everyone would be long gone. I needn't tell you the string of profanities that came out of my brother's mouth, but it would have made the guys in Bridgeport blush.

The dig was done on the cheap and some innocent person paid with their life. The attorney general is right to say a crime was committed. The description of how these overhead bolts were 'glued' and welded in is a crime of greed and it needs to be prosecuted not just to the welders, but to the bosses and owners.

And while I am on a :rant:, let me tell you about that fire at the half way house in Missouri. I work frequently as a Nurse in long term care (they are the only folks that still maintain 8 hour shifts). That was a crime too. If I am understanding right-they had 2 staff for all those 32 residents. One of the 10 killed was a worker. And to top it off the guy operating the place, a fellow by the name of Dupont, was previously convicted of Medicare/Medicaid fraud. In case of a fire, how can 2 folks safely get 32 folks out. It is beyond any two folks abilities. They say the fire was hot and burnt the building down to the cinders. Guess these folks don't have any experience with oxygen. If they did, they would have retro fitted a sprinkler system. The gov is right; it is a crime scene, just like the big dig. I just hope they get the right criminal.

I wish I could tell you that this is the exception, but it is not. This is why I never work nights at a Nursing home (the poor staffing in general and nights in particular).

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Ghost Dog]

32. What you have to say is very profound, it seems to me, AnneD.

Let us all, around the world, attempt to support political systems that can serve to support and to promote:

* Intelligent economies;

* Inspired while at the same time pragmatic research & development

* "Divine" art; and, of course,

* Fine, first-class quality craftsmanship (and craftswomanship, of course).

:hi: - I hope you're enjoying the 'international' perspectives I'm able to provide here (still from offshore NW Africa - the Canary Islands) from time to time.

Interesting times...

[AnneD]

37. Ghost Dog.....

I love the different perspectives, esp your posts. It keeps us from being so insulated. We live in an informational ghetto here-unless you use the internet.

One of the things I enjoyed was reading about the Shakers. I remember that they always did the best they could at whatever they set about to do. One of the best quotes was that when they set about building a chair, they built it as if an angel would sit upon it. I found that divine quality assurance comforting.

[Ghost Dog]

51. Yes indeed. Shakers, Quakers,

and the United Fruit Company (not to mention Disneyland).

Hmm. I sense the beginnings of a slightly polemical essay on the history of the Americas coming on.

Maybe I'll sleep on it and let's see :silly:

... Used to be, the (once high-quality) wealth of the USA (unlike further south) was (more-or-less) spread around, available to all, with a little risk and hard work. Now, the 'neoconomic' ( also here) approach turns all that history on its head, it seems: who cares how shoddy is the work as long as a few, a very few, can grow extremely rich?

Banana economics, with no sense of history, indeed...

[AnneD]

60. When we travel....

I love to buy from local craftsman. I am seldom dissapointed and love to pay a good price without the middle man. When I buy that Indian silk sari, I pay the lady that sews it for me and she pays her workers (housewives supplementing their husbands meagar income). She buys the fabric from the local textile mill, which inturn keeps that skill alive. I'll buy a basket from the woman squatting by the side of the road making baskets. I will buy garlic rope from the farmer that has obviously brought his goods into town to sell after harvesting. It is not free trade but it is fair trade, and I feel good about my purchase.

My all time fav purchase? A beautiful shawl that some woman in northern India spent a year stitching a beautiful design on. It looks like it is woven in, until one looks very closely. It is truly a work of art. It would feed her family for a year.

[NotGivingUp]

53. i'll be thinking of your brother's story every time i cross a bridge

which is quite often here in florida. how do we put an end to all of this insanity and greed?

[ozymandius]

11. Cyber Monday, you're no Black Friday

There are plenty of happy holiday myths: Santa Claus, elves, flying reindeer, toys that come fully assembled.

Now you can add "Cyber Monday" to that end-of-year fantasy list. Another year has come and gone and, as many predicted, by late in the day on the West Coast, Cyber Monday appeared to be just another busy holiday shopping day.

Retailers, of course, have breathlessly promoted the first Monday after Thanksgiving as a crucial day for online shopping, the day Web cash registers were supposed to be stuffed as bargain hunters got an early jump on holiday gift buying. But in all the effort to hype the day, somebody forgot to tell consumers.

"We didn't see any unusual (traffic) on the site," said Craig Berman, an Amazon.com spokesman, who added that the company's biggest day last year was December 12.

http://news.com.com/Cyber+Monday,+youre+no+Black+Friday/2100-1038_3-6138764.html

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.42 Change -0.08 (-0.10%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Durable Orders And Housing Data Look To Keep Dollar Moving

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_Durable_1164669799683.html

US Durable Goods Orders (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Orders) (Ex Transport)
Consensus: -5.0% 0.2%
Previous: 8.3% (R) 0.5% (R)

Outlook: Durable goods sales look to post sharp declines through October, as September’s 6-year highs are unlikely to be sustained through the medium term. Much like through the previous month, however, the headline figure will obscure the more important Ex Transport growth number. Excluding volatile sales of airplanes and other large-ticket transport items, durable goods sales will likely add 0.2 percent on the month. Though this is a far cry from June’s 1.8 percent growth, it would represent the second consecutive month of a positive change for an otherwise volatile number. Perhaps more importantly, the figure likewise represents the first piece of solid US economic data since recent dollar declines. Traders will likely watch for any surprises as a confirmation of the dollar-bearish trend or likelihood of an imminent reversal.

Previous: Headline durable goods growth hit 6-year highs through September, as a large number of airplane orders pushed the overall figure to a whopping 8.3 percent change on the month. Of course, these multi-billion dollar deals inaccurately skewed the more important ex-transport health measure, which added 0.5 percent through the same period. Analysts will look to upcoming figures to provide clearer indication of future trends, as especially volatile recent month-to-month changes produce an unclear picture of underlying demand growth.


US Consumer Confidence (NOV) (15:00GMT; 10:00EST)

Consensus: 106.0
Previous: 105.4

Outlook: Economists predict that consumer confidence improved in the month of November, as low energy prices and a resilient labor market improved optimism in the world’s largest economy. The US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said recently that the average retail price nationwide for regular unleaded gasoline has been about $2.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter, down from an average of $2.83 a gallon in the third quarter. With consistently low energy costs, the US consumer has considerably more purchasing power at his or her disposal, as the October reading of Personal Income is anticipated to gain 0.5 percent. Many economists hope that strong consumer confidence and subsequent spending will offset declines in real estate values. As such, it will be important to watch for any surprises in the important barometer of consumer health in the US economy.

Previous: American consumers indicated they were less optimistic in October, as the Conference Board’s index of sentiment unexpectedly dropped to 105.4 from a revised reading of 105.9 in the month prior. Uncertainty regarding US upcoming mid-term elections, a worsening situation in Iraq, and concerns of a housing market crash left households pessimistic. As a result, retail sales slipped 0.2 percent during the month of October, despite falling oil prices, which typically lends strength to consumption figures. Given that the consumer spending sector accounts for 70 percent of GDP, it will be critical to watch whether it can rebound in Q4. As such, traders will watch for further developments in the measure of optimism of the country’s 300 million-strong consumers.


US Existing Home Sales (OCT) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
(Sales) (MoM)
Consensus: 6.15M -0.6%
Previous: 6.18M -1.9%

Outlook: The housing market, which has quickly become one of the most pressing issues for the world’s largest economies, will receive another update with October’s used home sales report. Expected to slip another 0.6 percent, expectations continue to dim as the sector falls deeper into the worst slump in 15 years. Looking to related economic data, the fundamentals supporting this dour consensus become obvious. Consumer optimism found a ceiling according to the Conference Board’s measurements for the same month. Consumers are increasingly concerned as the housing slump wicks wealth away from housing values, while at the same time additions to payrolls grow slighter each month. Conversely, the unemployment rate slimmed down to 4.4 percent, the lowest level in five-years. Furthermore, recent housing data has been sprinkled with indications of cheaper prices as developers try to move inventory and mortgage rates start to back off on expectations of an eventual rate cut from the fed sometime in 2007. However, when all is said and done, the best forecast for the existing sales report may come from the Housing Starts read for the same month. Starts dropped a massive14.6 percent to a 1.486 million unit pace in October. What’s more permits dropped a record ninth consecutive month to the lowest level since 1997 over the same period. If housing statistics continue to drop below expectations, the group of releases may quickly become the most influential for dollar traders and further exacerbate the currency’s recent weakness.

Previous: Existing home sales fell for the sixth consecutive month in September. Falling 1.9 percent from the previous period, the 6.18 million annual unit pace was the lowest level in the NAR’s proprietary housing report in nearly three years. Breaking down the statistics of the report, sales of single family homes dropped 14.2 percent from a year ago, offering a bleak view of the health of the overall market. On the other hand, inventories and sales components of the read are starting to show a few of the positive side-effects of a weak headline number. With sales of both new and existing homes falling across the board, basic economics suggest that realtors and developers will respond in order to salvage their businesses. Acting as expected, inventories over the month fell 2.4 percent to a 7.3 month supply; while prices for single-family homes dropped 2.5 percent from a year ago, the biggest drop since 1969. Despite this silver lining, the improvement has yet to find its way into the sales reports; and may not unless consumer income and confidence levels pick up in the months ahead.

...more...

Dollar Breaks To New Lows

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Breaks_To_New_Lows_1164654525553.html

Volatility looks as if it is charging to life for the majors as price action takes out major technical levels to set up the fundamentally intense week ahead. In the low liquidity environment over Thursday and Friday of last week, big moves were easily leveraged in the currency markets.

However, now that American and Japanese market participants are back at their screens, the filled out ranks are making an attempt at stabilizing the dollar before the economic calendar can dictate a more reliable direction. Against the euro, the greenback plunged to a new 20-month low, to 1.3180, in the opening hours of Asian session trade. Since then, the pair has fallen back to 1.3085, but most action seems contained by the 1.31 figure. The break in the British pound paring was even more interesting as a 23-month high for GBPUSD has clearly taken out previous resistance. A 1.9470 high has gradually given up 165 points of its three-day advance, but 1.94 now seems the level of interest to balanced market forces. Not to be ignored, the Swiss franc took advantage of the dollar sell off to move all the way to 1.2015 against the dollar, a five-and-half month low. With the least convincing move, the USDJPY has rebound from three-month lows at 115.40 in the early trading hours back above 116 for the first green bar for the dollar amongst the four.

The landscape for the FX markets may have shifted for the long-run with the accumulated effects of economic indicators, technical formations and capital flows. From a technical standpoint, the dollar has been pushed to new lows against many of its most liquid majors. Most notable amongst the dollar contractions were the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY pairs. Some level of caution remains however in the dollar index; which, though breaking 84.25 support in the most recent run, still has to deal with a floor eyed at 83.50. On the other hand, clearing the initial hurdles in the majors may have tipped the scales and provided the market the ability to build momentum in bigger runs. Whether this is the case or not will also be reflected in measures of current market volatility as well as implied volatility. The thin liquidity last week was undoubtedly the trigger the technical fireworks, with fewer traders able to leverage a strong rally. Now that the market is back to full capacity, it will remain to be seen whether the market volatility will retain its new levels with new trends forming after the recent breaks.

The economic calendar set for this week could play a big hand in helping the market decide its level of activity. Though there were no scheduled economic releases on board for Monday, the dollar was already feeling the fundamental effects of holiday spending. As the final two months of the year account for an estimated 20 percent of annual sales, the strong reports have set up high expectations for November and December consumer spending indicators like the government’s personal spending and retail sales gauges. According to a recent poll, holiday spending was 19 percent higher than a year ago. Looking ahead, it doesn’t take long for the data dam to break. Tomorrow, the register includes reports of durable goods orders, consumer confidence and existing home sales. Durable orders are expected to print lower in October and consumer sentiment higher in the following month; but housing may prove to be the defining read for the day as the specific market looks to define spending, wealth and overall growth in the economy in the coming months.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

21. (WAPO): World economy switches engines as US shudders: OECD

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/28/AR2006112800163.html

PARIS (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is running out of steam but Europe's resurgence and Asia's awakening will prevent the world's economy from derailing as it did after the stock market crash of 2000, the OECD said in a report on Tuesday.

"Rather than a major slowdown, what the world economy may be facing is a rebalancing of growth across OECD regions," said Jean-Philippe Cotis, chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In a twice-yearly Economic Outlook, the OECD forecast growth decelerating next year to 2.5 percent across its 30 mainly rich, industrialized member countries from 3.2 percent this year, and regaining some speed in 2008.

China, India and other fast-growing emerging economies such as Russia would keep going healthily and Europe's comeback this year contributed toward a "rebalancing" of global demand and output which mitigated the impact of a U.S. slowdown that would have spelled trouble for all in decades past.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

22. Asian shares close mostly lower after Wall St fall

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/feeds/afx/2006/11/28/afx3207788.html

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Shares across the Asia-Pacific region closed mostly lower after Wall Street had its worst day in more than four months overnight on a weaker dollar and concerns about the strength of the retail industry, dealers said.

Tokyo shares closed mixed after bargain-hunters stepped in, the market having plunged in the morning following the falls on Wall Street, dealers said. Investors were cautious while they awaited the release of industrial production data for last month for clues about the health of the economy, dealers said. The blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed 30.12 points or 0.19 pct lower at 15,855.26, after touching a low of 15,653.69. The broader TOPIX index of all first-section issues closed 2.10 points or 0.14 pct higher at 1,555.11.

...

Australian shares ended sharply lower, with investor sentiment dampened by the the large sell-off in US shares overnight when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.46 points, or 1.29 pct, to 12,121.71, dealers said. They said bank shares continued their correction while selling of leading resource stocks added to the day's significant fall.

The S&P/ASX 200 lost 67.9 points or 1.25 pct to close at 5,384.3. The benchmark index closed off the day's low of 5,368.6 and below the high of 5,435.4.

Hong Kong shares had dropped by over 2 pct in afternoon trade on profit taking and Wall Street's fall, dealers said. At 3.27 pm the Hang Seng Index was down by 416.71 points or 2.17 pct to 18,787.30,

In mainland China, A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed mixed amid profit taking in the wake of the weak performance by the Hong Kong market, with banks and steel makers hit, dealers said. The Shanghai A-share Index shed 8.85 points or 0.41 pct to 2,142.30 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 0.43 points or 0.09 pct at 493.41.

Seoul shares closed lower following Wall Street's sharp decline, with continued profit-taking by foreign investors dampening overall sentiment, dealers said. Large cap IT, financial and telecom stocks led the decline. The KOSPI index closed down 13.66 points or 0.96 pct at 1,411.47, after moving between 1,404.67 and 1,413.71.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

23. Japan's key Nikkei index falls on tumble in U.S. stocks

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061128/kyodo/d8llue3g0.html

(Kyodo) _ Japan's key Nikkei stock index declined Tuesday following an overnight tumble in U.S. stocks and the yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar, although a large portion of its morning losses was trimmed by buying on domestic demand-related issues in the afternoon.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost 30.12 points, or 0.19 percent, to end at 15,855.26. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 2.10 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,555.11.

Tokyo stocks fell sharply in the morning due to the tumble in U.S. stocks while the recent bearishness of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, including the Japanese yen, also weighed on the market, brokers said.

They said foreign brokerages' sell orders placed before the opening, which topped buy orders by a large volume, also pressed the market.

But the key Nikkei index reversed course as stocks got a boost in the afternoon from investors hunting for bargains in domestic demand-related issues, they said.

"Market sentiment reversed as basically there was a common understanding in the market that Tokyo stocks had been oversold and that they were undervalued," said Yuya Yamaguchi, manager of the equity marketing department at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

24. BOJ Fukui:To raise rates not too late or too early

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061128:MTFH98245_2006-11-28_06-13-50_T141249&type=comktNews&rpc=44

NAGOYA, Japan, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Tuesday he saw the need to adjust interest rates to minimise economic swings, adding that the central bank would raise rates "not too late or too early."

Fukui provided few fresh hints on the timing of the next rate hike, including the possibility of a policy change in December, repeating that the decision would depend largely on the economy and that future rate hikes would be done gradually.

"We can minimise economic swings in the future by appropriately adjusting very low rates at some point," Fukui told told a meeting of local business leaders in Nagoya, central Japan.

"In that sense, an adjustment in interest rates, not as a tightening step but a step to prolong economic expansion, is unavoidable."

"We are trying to do this not too late or too early," he added during a question-and-answer session at the meeting with local business leaders.

Many traders expect the BOJ to raise the overnight call rate target to 0.5 percent from the current 0.25 percent by March, with most betting on a move in January. But some still see a policy shift at the BOJ's next meeting on Dec. 18-19.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

26. Indian shares fall on U.S. worries

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-11-28T164356Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-278068-2.xml

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian shares fell 1.25 percent on Tuesday, their biggest percentage fall since early October, as investors dumped technology stocks amid concerns of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, while Colombo stocks posted a record close.

India's 30-issue benchmark BSE index dropped 171.64 points to end at 13,601.95 points, its lowest close since Nov.20, with 25 stocks in the red. It had hit a record high on Monday, when it also posted its 12th record close in 19 sessions.

"This is the start of a bearish phase and the market may fall further to 13,200 or 12,950 levels," said Niranjan Singh Shekhawat, a technical analyst with HDFC Securities.

"There was a crucial support at 13,625, which has been breached, I guess aggressive traders are seen going short."

Technology firms suffered the most and pulled down the index, which is still up about 5 percent so far in November, after U.S. stocks had fallen on signs of weakness in economic activity.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

25. Steamroller economy unlikely to slacken - report

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-11/28/content_745309.htm

(AP) SHANGHAI - China's sizzling economy shows few signs of slowing, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, said in a report released Tuesday that raised its growth for this year to 10.6 percent from 9.7 percent.

Workers labor on a construction site in Beijing Sunday Nov. 26, 2006.
Although China's economic growth is expected to moderate slightly to 10.3 percent in 2007, it will rebound to 10.7 percent in 2008, the Paris-based group of 30 industrialized countries said in its latest global economic outlook report. Its earlier forecast for growth in 2007, issued in May, was 9.5 percent.

China said its economy grew 10.4 percent in the July-September quarter from the same period of 2005, down from 11.3 percent growth rate in the second quarter, China's fastest expansion in a decade.

The report warned that China risks slowing growth too much if it imposes stronger controls on lending, controls Beijing has said are needed to relieve strains resulting from excessively fast growth and overinvestment in some sectors, such as real estate.

The report put China's inflation rate this year at 2.2 percent, down from its earlier forecast of 3.4 percent. Inflation is forecast to drop to 1.8 percent in 2007 and to edge up to 2 percent in 2008.

The report echoed calls from Washington for China to let its tightly currency, the yuan, gain value against the U.S. dollar more quickly.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

27. German Dec. GfK Consumer Climate Indicator At Near 5-year High

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061128\ACQRTT200611280229RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0070.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

(RTTNews) - German consumer climate indicator stood at 9.4 for December, the GfK survey showed Tuesday. The indicator moved up from a revised reading of 9.3 for November. Earlier, the November reading was estimated at 9.2. The December reading is the highest value since November 2001, the Nurnber-based GfK said. Economists expected the metric to climb to 9.4 for December from the initial 9.2 level for November. The indicator for economic situation outlook gained 3.4 points to 10.3. The gauge for income expectations shed 6.6 points.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

28. Euro nears 20-month high against dollar

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39049.395-885137377&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

The euro traded close to a 20-month high against the dollar and hit an all time peak against the yen on Tuesday as European policymakers played down the impact of the recent rise in the single currency. The euro gained 0.1 per cent to $1.3140 against the dollar, within sight of the 20-month peak around $1.3180 it hit on Monday, and gained 0.2 per cent to Y152.73 against the yen, having risen to an all-time high of Y152.82 earlier in the session.

French politicians laid out their position very clearly regarding the euro’s recent strength on Monday, with both Thierry Breton, the French finance minister, and Christine Lagarde, the French trade minister, voicing their concerns over its effect on eurozone growth. However, analysts said it was noticeable that they have not yet been joined by other eurozone finance ministers. Indeed, on Tuesday, Karl-Heinz Grasser, Austria’s finance minister said euro strength was “nothing special at all”, adding that it reflected the strength of the eurozone economy.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

29. European stocks fall to 5-week low, hit by US data

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-11-28T134954Z_01_L28177259_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-URGENT.XML

LONDON, Nov 27 (Reuters) - European shares extend losses on Tuesday, falling to a five-week low after U.S. durable good orders dropped sharply in October.

By 1340 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> was down 0.5 percent at 1,421.51, falling to its lowest intraday level since Oct. 11.

London's FTSE 100 index .FTSE, the French CAC-40 <.FCHI> and Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> were all down 0.5 percent.

"The figures are disappointing. The numbers show that the drive of the U.S. economy is fading," said Rainer Sartoris, economist at HSBC.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

39. Europe hits 7-week low as euro strengthens

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39049.5163425926-885146054&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European bourses ended negative for a fifth straight sessions, but recovered losses sustained earlier when weak US durable goods and consumer confidence data rattled Wall Street. Renewed nervousness about the dollar’s weakness against the euro also weighed as the single currency notched up a fresh 20-month high against the struggling greenback.

Carmakers continued to suffer: DaimlerChrysler fell 0.7 per cent to €43.96, BMW lost 0.3 per cent to €41.72 and Renault eased 0.3 per cent to €91.25. But Volkswagen bucked the trend, jumping 2.5 per cent to €82 amid talk that Porsche was taking advantage of the stock’s recent weakness to build up a stake. Porsche shares gained 0.3 per cent to €854.55. Nokia fell 1.4 per cent to €15.30 after the Finnish mobile phone handset maker cut its profitability targets. Mittal Steel fell 2.7 per cent to €31 after Credit Suisse cut its 2007 forecasts for the world’s top steel company due to a deteriorating steel market outlook. Insurer Generali put on a late spurt to close 3.5 per cent higher at €32.29, the best performance in the FTSE Eurofirst 300, amid talk that it could be a bid target.

...

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 slipped 0.3 per cent to 1,425.35, a seven-week low. In Paris, the CAC 40 dipped slightly into the red, falling 0.1 per cent to 5,306.24 while the Xetra Dax shed 0.3 per cent to 6,281.68 in Frankfurt.

/..

[54anickel]

57. Russia strangling its economy, says OECD

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20839553-2703,00.html

RUSSIA'S bureaucracy is corrupt, its health system is in crisis and the expansion of the state into the private sector bodes ill for the country's future, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

In an analysis of Russia's prospects, the OECD survey provides a damning critique of the country's efforts at reform and gives a stark warning of the state's aggressive intervention in strategic industries, notably the expansion of gas monopoly Gazprom.

Structural reform of the Russian economy is slowing, the OECD says, with modest achievements over the past two years.

But government intervention is accelerating in sectors regarded as strategic, such as oil, aviation, power generation, cars and finance.

"Increasingly, policy seems to have been focused not on market reforms but on tightening the state's grip on the commanding heights of the economy. This bodes ill for Russia's growth prospects," the OECD says.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Sterling hits 2-year high vs soft dollar, scales $1.95

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=ukPoundRpt&storyID=2006-11-28T154911Z_01_L28136829_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STERLING-CLOSE.XML

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Sterling scaled the $1.95 level on Tuesday for the first time in two years, as a plunge in U.S. durable goods orders for October kept the dollar under heavy downard pressure.

The durable goods data lifted the implied chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the first quarter next year to more than 50-50, according to interest rate futures markets.

Relatively high-yielding sterling was among the main winners amid the dollar's broad selloff but was also supported by positive sentiment provided by merger and acquisition activity.

/...

[54anickel]

43. The U.S. Dollar Was Last Week's Biggest Turkey

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=60671

While Americans were busy digesting their Thanksgiving feasts, the rest of the world was barfing up dollars. As a result of our massive trade deficits, foreigners certainly have their bellies full of them. This week’s action in the Forex markets indicates that they may have finally eaten their fill. Unfortunately, the bad taste will likely linger as the dollar’s rout has only just begun.

As American consumers hit the stores this Black Friday, few will have noticed that the most significant mark-down occurred in the value of their currency. If anything can be said to have been blackened this Friday it’s the U.S. dollar. While the media remains focused on the dollars Americans are irresponsibly spending, the real story lies in the loss in value of those dollars that foreigners are foolishly saving. The losses are particularly more pronounced among foreign central banks, most notably China, whose foreign exchange reserves, the vast majority being U.S dollars, recently eclipsed 1 trillion. When foreigners finally decide that they have had enough, their reluctance to accumulate additional dollars will mean that America’s perpetual shopping spree will finally come to a screeching halt.

Last week the U.S. dollar was carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey. Against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen, the dollar lost 3%, 2.2%, 2% and 1.8% of its value respectively. To put those declines into perspective, in terms of the euro the Dow Jones’s 60 point plus decline this week translates into the equivalent of a 320 point decline when measured in euros. In fact, year to date the Dow is only up by about 3.5% when priced in euro’s, compared to its 14.5 % advance when measured in depreciating U.S. dollars. From its high in 2000, the euro price of the Dow is down by over 27%. In terms of gold, the world’s only legitimate money, the picture is even worse. Priced in gold the Dow is off better than 50% from its 2000 peak, and actually down over 7% thus far this year. So much for Wall Street’s phony rally!

At the risk of over using the term, one conundrum is the relative strength in the bond market given the dollar’s recent weakness. From our creditors’ perspectives, the only thing worse than holding dollars is holding future claims to dollars, which is what bonds in fact represent. When foreigners begin factoring ten percent plus annual dollar declines into U.S. bond yields, bond prices will head south fast.

It also never ceases to amaze me how U.S. investors can be so fixated on stock prices yet remain oblivious to what those prices actually denote. Stock prices of course represent quantities of dollars. Therefore, true stock market values actually depend on the purchasing power of the dollar. Concentrating on the former while ignoring the latter is one of the biggest mistakes most investors make.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

49. More...

(From last Fridays's SMW - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2628505#2628870 )

- Same article, from this source: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2006/1124.html

Unfortunately the technical outlook for the dollar, and by extension that of the entire U.S. economy and the financial markets it supports, is rapidly deteriorating. The dollar Index, now trading near 83.5, has broken though some key support levels and the next test will likely be its all time record lows of just under 80. If that test fails, as it most likely will, look out below. Once the dollar moves into uncharted territory, the selling could intensify, with the dollar index trading below 70 in short order. My ultimate target for that index is 40, which would literally cut the dollar’s value in half. I think the entire move could occur in just two years. Again, putting that decline into perspective, it is the equivalent of over a 6,600 point decline in the Dow. Of course this assumes the Fed finally gets religion and Congress and the President heed its sermon. If not, and hyperinflation ensues, the dollar index could fall far lower, perhaps even breaking into the single digits before bottoming out.

/...

See also 'big picture' currency charts here: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2006/1124.html

eg. USD index:



... (more currency charts) ...

The charts of other major currencies are provided to give frame of reference to the dollar and its fate. The Euro and Swissy could be considered anti-dollars in that the Euro appears to be the primary challenger to the world's reserve currency and the Swiss Franc is commonly thought of as a note that represents everything that the American debt note no longer does. Then we have the "commodity" or "resource" currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars. I do not see a whole lot of bullish there and if I were a commodity bull I would be taking note and using caution beyond the near term. Finally, the slap happy Japanese Yen, which despite official efforts to the contrary, maintains a bullish stance to these eyes.

As always, we will watch for signs of hyperbole in the mass public mind set and remain aware that the dollar's reign as a functional reserve currency may not be over quite yet. We will also watch the Yen for a bullish turnaround, which would have global liquidity implications. The story the currencies are telling, at least to this writer's eyes is one where we get a strong anti-dollar drum beat in the near-term rejuvenating the "inflation trade" even as "commodity" currencies top out or continue to deteriorate, the dollar reverses off major lows, the Yen rises and we enter a period of slowing economic growth and a contraction in the global economy. It is either that or if the US Dollar breaks 80, we are talking Banana Republic or worse, Weimar.

/...

[54anickel]

50. Thanks GD! I missed last Friday completely and never did make it

back around to check the thread. I did get a heads up on the buck from Schiff's e-mail newsletter last week, but with all the holiday hustle around here I didn't get the chance to follow up or catch up until yesterday. Telling ya, miss a few days and you miss alot lately! Seems we are at some major tipping point. They might be able to hold it off until we're into the new year but something smells nasty in the wind these days.

[54anickel]

44. Dollar at 20-month euro low; up vs. yen

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B90553A4F%2D602D%2D4757%2DAE72%2D755E43F588CE%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a 20-month low against the euro Tuesday after a government report showed demand for U.S.-made durable goods declined much more than forecast last month.

But the U.S. currency pared losses versus the euro and edged slightly higher versus the yen after data showed an unexpected increase in sales of existing U.S. homes in October and a solid reading on the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

"The dollar is battling back now on a combination of better than expected housing sales and a solid print from the Richmond fed index," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. "The improvement in the existing-home sales is the key since the housing market is seen as the major negative for the U.S. economy."

snip>

The dollar showed little reaction to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the economy is still on track to expand at a moderate pace over the next year without slowing too much. He also said that the inflation is already "better behaved of late" and should continue to slow gradually.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

54. Greenspan: Not Concerned On Dollar As Long As Economy Flexible (n/t)

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061128\ACQRTT200611281359RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0920.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

[UpInArms]

14. Appeals court says trader should stay in jail

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-28T005136Z_01_N27178018_RTRIDST_0_TRADER-APPEAL.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court ruled on Monday that Martin Armstrong, a former trader accused of bilking Japanese investors out of up to $1 billion, should stay in jail for failing to produce relevant assets and records.

But the court also ordered a new judge to handle the case, representing a minor victory for Armstrong, who has been held in Manhattan's Metropolitan Correctional Center for almost seven years for contempt of court.

Armstrong was charged in 1999 of bilking investors out of up to $1 billion to cover trading losses over four years in the 1990s, taking money from them but not investing it in U.S. government securities as promised.

In the ongoing civil suit against Armstrong, a court-appointed receiver ordered the former trader to produce corporate records and $16 million worth of rare coins, gold bullion bars, and other assets belonging to companies Armstrong controlled, most notably Princeton Economics International.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Indiana: AM General Layoffs - 160 jobs

http://www.fox28.com/News/index.php?ID=8732

Layoffs will happen at A.M. General. Company officials confirmed Monday 160 people will be laid off on January second.

They told the union this could happen back in October.

AM General hopes to move the affected people into other positions at the plant... but they won't know until the first of the year if that will happen.

[UpInArms]

16. Paccar firm plans big Tennessee layoffs - 667 jobs

http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2006/11/27/daily6.html?surround=lfn

Peterbilt Motors Co. is planning to reduce production and staff at its truck manufacturing facility in Madison, Tenn., in late January.

In a letter sent Monday to the Dislocated Worker Unit of the Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development, plant manager Larry Vessels said a "permanent reduction in force in excess of 500 employees is expected" at the plant if "business conditions remain at current levels."

The United Auto Workers Local 1832 office in Madison said 667 workers would be let go effective Jan. 26.

According to Nashville Business Journal research, the Madison plant employed about 1,100 people last year. The plant has been operating since 1969.

"The Madison plant will be reducing its build rate in late January and adjusting its staffing accordingly," says Andrew Wold, treasurer for Peterbilt parent Paccar Inc., which is based in Bellevue.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Negative bias persists in pre-market trading as the futures market continues to languish near morning lows. Aside from the disappointing read on Oct. durable goods adding to concerns about the pace of economic growth, oil prices building on yesterday's gains near $61/bbl are also acting as an offset to a welcome decline in borrowing costs. The yield on the 10-year note is near nine-month lows (4.48%) as more evidence that two years of rate hikes have run their course reinforce expectations that a slowing economy may prompt policy makers to lower interest rates next year.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures trade pulls back following weak economic data and now suggests an even lower open for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Durable orders fell a larger than expected 8.3% in October (consensus -5.0%) -- the biggest drop in six years, while nondefense capital goods orders excluding transportation, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell 5.1%. The 10-year note, which was down slightly ahead of the report, has rebounded and is now up 7 ticks to yield 4.49%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Early indications suggest some of the nervousness tied to yesterday's widespread sell-off may carry over into this morning's open. With little in the way of corporate news, other than Boeing's (BA) receipt of a $5.7 bln order from Air Berlin, buyers remain sidelined in anticipation for some notable economic data and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (12:00 ET) to set a more definitive tone to today's action. Up first is Durable Orders at 8:30 ET while Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales data will be released at 10:00 ET.

[bagrman]

31. -ZERO- Amount of Enron Files left over after Sept 11th

All of the government files on Enron were in WTC 7 when it fell down due to a fire.

Latr

[54anickel]

41. Bernanke: Economy Slowing As Expected

Bernanke: Economic Slowdown Unfolding As Expected but Risks Remain to Outlook

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061128/bernanke.html?.v=6

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that risks from inflation or a worse-than-expected housing slump could further complicate things for an economy that already is in slowdown mode.

"The deceleration in economic activity currently under way appears to be taking place roughly along the lines envisioned," Bernanke said in his most extensive comments on the economy since the summer. The slowdown in overall activity mostly reflects the housing slump, he said. As the economy cools, inflation also should continue to gradually ease over the next year or so, the Fed chief added.

Yet, "substantial uncertainties" surround the Fed's outlook, Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the National Italian American Foundation in New York.

The slowdown in the once sizzling housing market could turn out to be deeper than expected, putting an even greater drag on overall economic activity. Or, Bernanke surmised, economic growth could rebound more strongly than expected, which could lead to a flare-up in inflation.

"A failure of inflation to moderate as expected would be especially troublesome," he said.

Overall inflation has showed signs of improving in recent months as once surging energy prices have calmed down. However, "core" prices -- which exclude energy and food and are closely watched by the Fed -- still remain "uncomfortably high," Bernanke said. Looking ahead, Bernanke said he expects those core prices to moderate gradually over the next year or so.

But he made clear the Fed will be keep a close eye on the matter, especially on labor costs, which can spark inflation if they grow rapidly.

more...

[54anickel]

45. U.S. Treasurys flatten as Bernanke speaks

Fed chief is optimistic about productivity, says inflation risks persist

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5EC84F52%2DDC2D%2D41F2%2D8FCA%2D42C45FB3527D%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices gave up gains to trade at nearly flat levels Tuesday afternoon, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted moderate growth with higher productivity and an upside inflation risk.

Another Fed official, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said rates may be needed to keep inflation under control. The bond market abhors inflation because it eats into the value of fixed-income instruments.

Early price gains also were dented by an unexpected increase in existing-home sales last month; signs of economic strength encourage investors to eschew low-risk instruments like bonds for riskier assets with a potential for higher returns.

snip>

"Yields settled back down to pre-speech levels after a slight pop on the more inflammatory references to inflation risks in both Bernanke's and Plosser's speeches," according to Action Economics.

snip>

Much of his speech appeared designed to gently dampen two of the major fears about the economic outlook-- that the housing market would push the economy into a full-fledged recession, or that inflation pressures were like a smoldering campfire, seemingly controlled but ready to burst up in the next strong wind.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

52. Bernanke: Inflation still a threat

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/28/news/economy/bernanke.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. economy is poised to expand at a moderate rate and "uncomfortably high" core inflation should slow, but inflation risks are "primarily to the upside," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

"Over the next year or so, the economy appears likely to expand at a moderate rate, close to or modestly below the economy's long-run sustainable pace," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Italian American Foundation in New York.

"Core inflation is expected to slow gradually from its recent level," he said. Still, he added, "the risks to the (inflation) forecast seem primarily to the upside."

"Given the current level of inflation, a failure of inflation to moderate as expected would be especially troublesome," Bernanke said.

The Fed distributed the text of Bernanke's remarks to reporters in Washington. Bernanke is not expected to answer questions after speaking.

The U.S. central bank chairman warned that "substantial uncertainties" surround the outlooks for both growth and inflation.

"Whether any further policy action against inflation will be required depends on the incoming data and in particular on how these data affect the (Federal Open Market Committee's) medium-term forecasts of both inflation and output growth," Bernanke said.

/...

[54anickel]

42. 1:20 check in

Dow 12,112.89 8.82 (0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,401.35 4.57 (0.19%)
S&P 500 1,383.26 1.36 (0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.5250% 0.0130
30-yr Bond 4.6070% 0.0110
NYSE Volume 1,532,032,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,206,143,000

1:00 pm : The major indices are now trading in split fashion as Bernanke's prepared remarks come off a bit more hawkish than the market was expecting. Albeit saying "the drag on the economy from the motor vehicle and housing sectors will gradually diminish" and that "inflation pressures might be diminishing somewhat," the Fed Chairman has also noted there are "substantial uncertainties" surrounding the outlook for both growth and inflation. Investors are also taking a cautious cue from a brief reversal in Treasuries after Bernanke said "the level of the core inflation rate remains uncomfortably high." DJ30 -6.41 NASDAQ -3.20 SP500 +1.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/1302/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1434/1723/808 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway. All three of the major averages are in positive territory, but the Dow and Nasdaq continue to vacillate above and below the flat line with little sense of direction. The lack of buying conviction is understandable since investors are in a wait-and-see mode until details from Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech on the economic outlook are released in a few minutes. DJ30 +0.72 NASDAQ +0.01 SP500 +2.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1494/1428/992 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1289/1864/714 mln

12:00 pm : A day after selling off in noticeable fashion, stocks are recouping some of those losses midday. However, market gains are modest at best as upcoming testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke at 12:30 ET and rising oil prices continue to underpin a cautious tone following this morning's batch of mixed economic data.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that demand for U.S.-made durable goods fell a larger than expected 8.3% in October, marking the biggest decline in more than six years. Core capital goods, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell for the first time in six months. Since business investment has been strong for several years, providing significant support to GDP growth, evidence of an easing has reinforced the possibility that real GDP forecasts for Q4 and early 2007 may have to be revised to below 2%.

Be that as it may, with Fed officials recently stating that "housing activity is likely to remain a substantial drag on economic growth over the next few quarters," a report showing that sales of existing U.S. homes rose for the first time since February has offered some relief as it plays into the soft landing scenario. Even though the housing market is still weak, the surprising 0.5% increase to a 6.24 mln annual rate suggests that the market may indeed be bottoming now that mortgage rates have leveled off.

Of the six sectors trading higher, Energy is providing the bulk of market support. However, its 1.8% gain in sympathy with a 1.0% rise in oil prices ($60/90/bbl) leaves investors struggling to view the sector's history as a large contributor to earnings growth on the S&P 500 as an offset to the adverse impact rising oil prices can have on consumer sentiment, especially now that the holiday shopping season is upon us and after investors also got wind earlier of an unexpected decline in consumer confidence. BTK -0.2% DJ30 +5.36 DJTA -0.8% DJUA +0.6% NASDAQ +1.29 R2K +0.3% SOX -0.5% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +3.42 XOI +1.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1387/1502/870 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1248/1874/612 mln

11:30 am : The S&P 500 continues to sport a modest gain but the Dow and Nasdaq still cling to the smallest of intraday gains. Further appreciation in oil prices now has the Energy sector up 2.0% on the day and closing in on the Telecom sector's leading year-to-date advance of 23%. Crude for January delivery is now up 1.3% and above $61/bbl on the same news that drove up the commodity yesterday -- forecasts calling for colder than normal temperatures next week, talk of a potential OPEC production cut at the December 14 meeting, and a weak dollar. DJ30 +10.81 NASDAQ +0.62 SP500 +3.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1371/762 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1227/1837/530 mln

11:00 am : The indices extend their reach to the upside, with the Nasdaq becoming the latest of the majors to inch into the green. Of the seven sectors now trading in positive territory, Energy (+1.7%) is leading the charge and its history as a large contributor to earnings growth on the S&P 500 is acting as an offset to the adverse impact rising oil prices can have on consumer sentiment. Turnarounds in Tech and Financials are also providing some notable leadership, but their minimal gains provide little conviction on the part of buyers and their lackluster attempts to recoup two days of profit taking.DJ30 +9.01 NASDAQ +0.09 SP500 +3.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1410/1373/602 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1183/1850/404 mln

10:30 am : The major averages improve their stance within the last 30 minutes, as evidenced by turnarounds in the Dow and S&P 500, after investors digest today's last batch of economic data. With growth concerns being the market's pre-occupation of late, as evidenced by an unexpected decline in consumer confidence, existing home sales rising for the first time since February has offered some relief. Even though the housing market is still weak, a surprising 0.5% increase to a 6.24 mln annual rate in sales of existing U.S. homes suggests that the market may indeed be bottoming now that mortgage rates have leveled off. DJ30 +5.04 NASDAQ -4.27 SP500 +2.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1734/942/394 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1419/1505/248 mln

10:00 am : The indices continue to languish in the red as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Of the seven sectors losing ground, Consumer Discretionary is pacing the way as concerns that holiday spending will be soft continue to linger. Retailers are also under pressure as oil prices hitting two-week highs exacerbate consumption concerns. Despite a 1.4% rebound in Boeing (BA 88.60 +1.23), which inked a $5.7 bln order from Air Berlin, the economically-sensitive Industrials sector ranks as today's second worst performer following the durable goods disappointment. The absence of leadership from Technology and Financials also leaves investors questioning the sustainability of recent market gains. DJ30 -29.08 NASDAQ -11.68 SP500 -2.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1585/881/132 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1298/1097/58 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks open lower across the board as renewed concerns about the pace of economic growth exacerbate Monday's bearish disposition tied a sense the market is overextended on a short-term basis. Earlier, the Commerce Dept. showed that demand for U.S.-made durable goods fell a larger than expected 8.3% in October (consensus -5.0%). That marked the biggest decline since July 2000 and nearly erases the 8.7% surge in September. Core capital goods, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell for the first time in six months. Since business investment has been strong for several years, providing significant support to GDP growth, evidence of an easing reinforces the possibility that real GDP forecasts for Q4 and early 2007 may have to be revised to below 2%.DJ30 -27.20 NASDAQ -9.76 SP500 -2.78 NASDAQ Vol 90 mln NYSE Vol 48 mln

[54anickel]

46. The bond market's dirty secret - A whiff of scandal threatens the Treasury repurchase market.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/12/11/8395437/index.htm?postversion=2006112809

Fortune Magazine) -- Like greenbacks in a mattress, government bonds enjoy a reputation as a fail-safe investment. The integrity of the $4 trillion-plus U.S. Treasury market is essential, because it keeps investors, particularly big foreign players, pumping cash into the debt-laden federal coffers.

Treasury yields are the benchmarks for corporate debt, mortgages and car loans, so any disruption in the market could have a wide-ranging economic effect.

Just such a disruption occurred on Nov. 3, when several newspapers reported that Philip Smith and Robert Fischetti were in negotiations with UBS (Charts) to leave the bank's trading desk amid rumors that the Securities and Exchange Commission was scrutinizing the bank for manipulating the Treasury repurchase, or "repo," market.

snip>

UBS is one of the 22 investment banks that buy bonds directly from the Federal Reserve and resell them to customers, including mutual funds, pension funds, foreign investors and others. The members of this club, which include Lehman Brothers (Charts), Cantor Fitzgerald and Mizuho Securities (Charts), also use the bonds as collateral for loans.

One of the privileges that come with being a primary dealer is an in-depth knowledge of who is scouring the market for a particular bond - and therein lies temptation.

Sometimes a dealer with big brokerage and lending operations (let's call it Bank A) will learn that a rival (Bank B) is going to need a certain issue by a certain date. Bank A can quietly try to snap up a big portion of that issue. Then, when Bank B goes into the market trying to find those bonds, it will encounter a dearth of sellers and will be inclined to pay a premium for them.

more...

[Roland99]

58. The love of money is the root of all evil...

well, at least in the US.

[54anickel]

47. Market warning from those in the know - Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/market-warning-those-know/story.aspx?guid=%7B8B5D12C8%2D451F%2D4EF7%2DB697%2DA8FB3D3D2B90%7D&siteId

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- If George Muzea is right, Monday's decline is just the start.

Muzea, who runs Reno-based Muzea Insider Consulting Services, has been negative on the market for just two weeks -- the first time he has been bearish since July 24, when he turned positive.

Muzea makes market calls based on the activity of corporate insiders. He's considered the grandfather of the insider-tracking industry, generally keeping a low profile to all but his high-paying hedge fund clients.

We speak every now and then. When we spoke last week he gave me an earful that I only wish now I had published then. (Such is life! The Thanksgiving break was calling.) But, according to Muzea, this is likely the beginning of a sharp and steep decline not unlike the one that hit the market last spring -- and maybe worse.

The only thing he doesn't know is whether, as is often the case, he is a month or two early. The wild card on timing, he says, is the impact 401k money will have inflows in January, which could give the market one last gasp into early spring. He'll know, he says, if insiders stop selling early in the year.

more...

[54anickel]

48. Relaxed about risk: Wall Street's gains may be a case of irrational equanimity

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/333247dc-7dbc-11db-9fa2-0000779e2340.html

The US equity markets sailed with equanimity into last week's Thanksgiving break. A strong rally has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average index gain about 15 per cent since midyear, bringing with it similar rises in the developed and emerging worlds and a rash of acquisitions.

But the data used by market professionals to show the level of anxiety in the market are perplexing. On the face of it, despite great uncertainty over the direction of the US economy, nobody is worried about anything.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Vix index, one popular measure of volatility, infers levels of anxiety from what investors are prepared to pay through the options market to hedge against future volatility in share prices. The Vix hit an all-time low last week. Volatility in the foreign exchange and credit markets is similarly at very low levels.

There is also little sign of risk being priced into securities. The extra yields, or "spreads", that investors receive for buying relatively risky paper such as emerging market debt, "junk" corporate bonds or the stocks of smaller companies, are all at or near historically low levels. This is out of kilter with the US Treasury bond market, arguably the most sensitive to the economy. It is signalling a sharp slowdown next year.

Normally, investors require a higher yield on longer-term bonds. This is logical, as there is greater uncertainty further into the future. When long-term yields are lower than short-term yields (known as an inverted yield curve), it implies that the market expects an imminent worsening of conditions and lower interest rates.

more...

[54anickel]

55. 3:36 and everybody's happy! Nuttin to worry bout!

Dow 12,142.62 20.91 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,413.71 7.79 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,387.53 5.63 (0.41%)
10-yr Bond 4.5090% 0.0290
30-yr Bond 4.5960% 0.0220
NYSE Volume 2,254,923,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,709,801,000

3:30 pm : A renewed wave of buying interest now has the indices flirting with their best levels of the day. The S&P 500 is pacing the way with a 0.4% gain as late-day buying efforts in Treasuries push yields lower and restore some enthusiasm in the rate-sensitive Financials sector. The Dow, though, is barely hovering in positive territory as 16 of its 30 components still post losses. DJ30 +13.75 NASDAQ +5.36 SP500 +5.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1697/1353/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1898/1.22 bln

3:00 pm : Equities are still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, but the Nasdaq has garnered just enough momentum within the last few minutes, due largely to a turnaround in the Technology sector, to turn positive. Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.01 +1.21) soaring 4.7% and more than recovering all of the 3.9% it lost on Monday is the most noticeable catalyst providing influential support. Apple Computer (AAPL 91.18 +1.64) surging nearly 2.0%, after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $108 from $95 is also contributing to the improvement on the tech-heavy Composite. DJ30 -7.78 NASDAQ +0.71 SP500 +3.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1612/1417/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1286/1970/1.12 bln

2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as investors continue to find few catalysts to push the indices more aggressively in either direction. The S&P 500 is still the only major average posting a gain but all three remain stuck in neutral which, considering economic data that were overall disappointing and another rise in oil prices, can be viewed as a positive for the bulls since there's still a prevailing sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis.DJ30 -5.94 NASDAQ -3.03 SP500 +1.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1704/1297/1.37 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1492/1742/1.03 bln

2:00 pm : Little has changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. It is worth noting, though, that a recent turnaround in Telecom now leaves sector leadership evenly matched. However, since Telecom is among the least influential of the 10 economic sectors, its improvement has had little impact on the broader market even though two of the sector's nine constituents (e.g. T, VZ) are also Dow components. DJ30 -12.58 NASDAQ -4.93 SP500 +0.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1692/1284/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1489/1717/954 mln

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade around the unchanged mark as there still isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE still hold a slight 17-to-14 edge over decliners while decliners outpace advancers by a slim 15-to-14 edge on the Nasdaq. A split ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite. DJ30 -16.59 NASDAQ -4.88 SP500 +0.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1562/1403/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1402/1780/882 mln

1:00 pm : The major indices are now trading in split fashion as Bernanke's prepared remarks come off a bit more hawkish than the market was expecting. Albeit saying "the drag on the economy from the motor vehicle and housing sectors will gradually diminish" and that "inflation pressures might be diminishing somewhat," the Fed Chairman has also noted there are "substantial uncertainties" surrounding the outlook for both growth and inflation. Investors are also taking a cautious cue from a brief reversal in Treasuries after Bernanke said "the level of the core inflation rate remains uncomfortably high." DJ30 -6.41 NASDAQ -3.20 SP500 +1.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/1302/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1434/1723/808 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway. All three of the major averages are in positive territory, but the Dow and Nasdaq continue to vacillate above and below the flat line with little sense of direction. The lack of buying conviction is understandable since investors are in a wait-and-see mode until details from Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech on the economic outlook are released in a few minutes. DJ30 +0.72 NASDAQ +0.01 SP500 +2.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1494/1428/992 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1289/1864/714 mln

[54anickel]

56. Minyanville's daily Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11683

[UpInArms]

59. doing the happy dance as I sweep up the floor - it's all good!

Dow 12,136.45 14.74 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,412.61 6.69 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,386.72 4.82 (0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.509% 0.029

NYSE Volume 2,656,833,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,030,587,000

After selling off in noticeable fashion yesterday, stocks garnered just enough bargain-hunting interest and leadership from some key sectors to finish on an upbeat note amid a mixed batch of economic data, hawkish Fed speak and rising oil prices.

With nothing of note on the earnings calendar and a lack of evidence to justify follow-through selling interest on the heels of Monday's drubbing, the market on Tuesday turned to economic releases and afternoon commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke to set a more definitive tone for trading.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that demand for U.S.-made durable goods fell a larger than expected 8.3% in October, marking the biggest decline in more than six years. Core capital goods, which provide a clearer read on underlying business capital investment, fell for the first time in six months. Since business investment has been strong for several years, providing significant support to GDP growth, evidence of an easing reinforced the possibility that real GDP forecasts for Q4 and early 2007 may have to be revised to below 2%. That, in turn, prompted even more consolidation in the economically-sensitive Industrials sector.

Nonetheless, with Fed officials noting at their last meeting that "housing activity is likely to remain a substantial drag on economic growth over the next few quarters," a report showing that sales of existing U.S. homes rose for the first time since February offered some relief as it plays into the soft landing scenario. In fact, with Bernanke saying today that "the effects of the housing correction on real economic activity are likely to persist into next year," the surprising 0.5% increase in existing home sales to a 6.24 mln annual rate suggests that the market may indeed be bottoming now that mortgage rates have leveled off.

Of the eight sectors closing in positive territory, Energy provided the bulk of market support. Its 1.9% advance in sympathy with a 1.1% rise in oil prices toward $61/bbl left investors more focused on the sector's history of generating strong profit growth for the S&P 500 than the adverse impact higher oil prices can have on consumer sentiment. That was especially important given the festering concerns about a soft holiday shopping season and after investors also got wind earlier of an unexpected decline in consumer confidence.

Technology also provided some notable upside leadership. The sector got its biggest boost as a sense that yesterday's 3.9% sell-off in Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.03 +1.23), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, was overdone prompted a rebound to the tune of 4.8%. Apple Computer (AAPL 91.81 +2.27) surging 2.5%, after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $108 from $95, was another source of sector support. DJ30 +14.74 NASDAQ +6.69 SP500 +4.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1478/1611/1.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1160/2128/1.50 bln

3:30 pm : A renewed wave of buying interest now has the indices flirting with their best levels of the day. The S&P 500 is pacing the way with a 0.4% gain as late-day buying efforts in Treasuries push yields lower and restore some enthusiasm in the rate-sensitive Financials sector. The Dow, though, is barely hovering in positive territory as 16 of its 30 components still post losses. DJ30 +13.75 NASDAQ +5.36 SP500 +5.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1697/1353/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1898/1.22 bln

3:00 pm : Equities are still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, but the Nasdaq has garnered just enough momentum within the last few minutes, due largely to a turnaround in the Technology sector, to turn positive. Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.01 +1.21) soaring 4.7% and more than recovering all of the 3.9% it lost on Monday is the most noticeable catalyst providing influential support. Apple Computer (AAPL 91.18 +1.64) surging nearly 2.0%, after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $108 from $95 is also contributing to the improvement on the tech-heavy Composite. DJ30 -7.78 NASDAQ +0.71 SP500 +3.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1612/1417/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1286/1970/1.12 bln