STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 29

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 29, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 782 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2163 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1869 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1830
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 28, 2006

Dow... 12,136.45 +14.66 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,412.61 +6.69 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,386.72 +4.82 (+0.35%)
Gold future... 637.30 -3.30 (-0.52%)
30-Year Bond 4.60% -0.02 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.51% -0.03 (-0.64%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

DAILY CHARTS

Summary

Yesterday's decline took the indices pretty close to the bottom of their rising channels; at the same time, volume increased considerably. Today, the indices bounced from channel support on decreasing volume and mediocre breadth. Consequently, the odds still suggest that ultimately, channel support will not hold. In that case the decline will continue for up to an additional three trading days taking the major indices down to the first downside targets (see table below). On the other hand, if channel support does hold against the odds, then we ought to be looking for a re-test of the most recent highs within a couple of days.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Barnaby]

5. I'm inclined to agree

I expect stocks to go through downside supports today and continue lower. Gold's rise looks to have been stopped by resistance at 642, but silver seems to have strenghth- go figure. The dollar still sucks.

Or maybe I just need more coffee.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM GDP-Prel. Q3
Briefing Forecast 1.8%
Market Expects 1.8%
Prior 1.6%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Prel. Q3
Briefing Forecast 1.8%
Market Expects 1.8%
Prior 1.8%

10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct
Briefing Forecast 1010K
Market Expects 1050K
Prior 1075K

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/24
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 5161K

Nov 29 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[54anickel]

38. Fed's Beige Book

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2006/20061129/default.htm

Most Federal Reserve Districts reported continued moderate growth since the last report. However, New York and Richmond observed that growth accelerated, whereas Dallas said the pace of activity continued to decelerate from high levels, and Atlanta described activity as mixed.

Despite continuing softness in automobile and housing-related sales, most Districts reported that consumer spending increased during October and early November, and the retail sales outlook for the holiday season was cautiously optimistic. According to most reports, growth in other service-producing industries remained generally solid. Manufacturing activity was positive overall, with the weakest reports concentrated among auto and housing-related producers. Reports on housing markets continued to indicate an overall decline in single-family home sales, and there were some reports of lower home prices. Indicators of single-family construction continued to weaken in most Districts. However, housing demand continued to be strong in a few specific markets, and nonresidential activity generally improved. Many Districts noted a continued slowing in mortgage lending, while reports on other lending were mixed. Some Districts reported a slight increase in delinquencies.

A number of Districts continued to report that labor markets were tight, especially for high-skilled occupations. Wage growth remained generally moderate, although some Districts gave accounts of stronger wage pressures for some specialized professions. Most Districts reported that prices moderated for construction materials and energy products.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Crude Oil Futures Surge on Falling Fuel Supplies, Cold Weather

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axyrXOsNjbsw&refer=home

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to the highest in almost two months after a government report showed that U.S. supplies of heating oil fell as below-normal temperatures moved toward the eastern U.S., indicating an increase in fuel use.

Heating-oil inventories fell 1.06 million barrels to 59.1 million last week, leaving stockpiles the lowest since August, the Energy Department said. Crude oil and gasoline inventories also declined, the report showed. The Northeast is forecast to be hit by a cold-weather system next week. The region uses 80 percent of U.S. heating oil.

``This isn't one of those mixed reports with a build in one category and a draw in others,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``This report paints a consistent picture with declines across the board.''

snip>

Supplies of distillate fuels, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 1 million barrels to 132.8 million, the report showed. An increase of 500,000 barrels was expected.

snip>

Refineries operated at 88.1 percent of capacity last week, up 1 percentage point from the week before, the report showed. Refiners in November typically start units closed for maintenance as they prepare for increased fuel demand in the winter months.

``We need to see refiners get up to 90 percent or higher to allay some of our supply concerns,'' said James Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

more...

[54anickel]

40. U.S. Economy: Home Sales Drop, Stockpiles Increase (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1bKa7kPn8vA&refer=home

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may head into 2007 in weaker-than-expected shape after reports showed October new- home sales fell for the first time in three months and stockpiles at companies jumped last quarter.

Purchases of dwellings declined 3.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.004 million from a 1.037 million rate in September that was slower than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Rising inventories were responsible for an upward revision in economic growth to 2.2 percent last quarter, the department also reported.

The numbers show few signs of the scenario sketched by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who predicted yesterday that growth will pick up in the coming year and that inflation remains a greater threat than a slackening expansion. The Fed said today that most of its districts ``reported moderate growth'' in October and early November.

``It's not very promising for next year,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. ``The damage we've already seen in housing will spread to further weakness in the economy.''

The supply of unsold homes at the current sales pace rose to 7 months' worth. New-home sales had been expected to decline to a 1.049 million rate from September's originally reported 1.075 million pace, according to the median of 64 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $61 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices hovered around $61 a barrel Wednesday as the market considered forecasts for colder weather in the United States and next month's OPEC meeting.

In less than two weeks, the front-month crude-oil futures contract has climbed by more than $5 a barrel, but prices are still trading within a range that has been roughly in place since the start of October.

Oil traders' focus is on supply, with just two weeks before a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the approach of the Northern Hemisphere peak demand period. They were also watching for Wednesday's weekly U.S. government data release, which is expected to show across-the-board inventory gains.

-cut-

Barely two weeks ago, on Nov. 17, the December contract settled and expired at $55.81 a barrel.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Caspian oil field to produce 25% more

Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan oil field will produce 25 per cent more oil than expected once it hits peak production, international companies developing the field have found.

News that the field, the largest and most important discovered in more than 30 years, will yield significantly more than than the 13bn barrels forecast is a breakthrough as dwindling world oil supplies and problems accessing oil-rich countries such as Iraq raise doubts about meeting rapidly increasing demand.

The Financial Times has learnt that peak production of the Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea, due at the end of the next decade, is expected to be 1.5m barrels a day, 25 per cent higher than published estimates. The field, operated by Eni, Italy’s biggest oil and gas group, is expected to pump this amount each day for more than 10 years, meaning it will yield 10 per cent more reserves than currently assumed.

-cut-

The field’s partners include Total of France, Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips of the US, Inpex of Japan and KazMuneiGaz. Steamy summer conditions, winter temperatures of -40 degrees centigrade, a sensitive environment and high quantities of poisonous hydrogen sulfide make Kashagan perhaps the world’s most complicated field.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f860ff6a-7d7d-11db-9fa2-0000779e2340.html

[4dsc]

33. WOW!!! (Not)

A whole whopping 13bn barrel forecast(versus the orginal bill of perhaps 200BN). SO let's review, the world uses about 30BILLION barrels per year..

To bad this will not even come close to making up for the oil depletion rates of the rest of the world's oil fields.. And with worldwide oil production peaking within the next 5 years, we are all so screwed!!

[Roland99]

36. Interesting how they keep finding increases in oil finds *AND* increasing the cost of oil, too.

Nice racket.

[ozymandius]

6. U.S. mortgage applications fell in latest week: MBA

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week with the number of business days truncated by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted index of total mortgage applications declined 3.9 percent in the week ended November 24 to 599, its lowest level since October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The four-week moving average for the applications index rose by 1.1 percent to 622.8.

Mortgage applications were pulled down by a drop in loan refinancing, MBA data showed.

-cut-

Economists say such data suggest the worst of the year's housing slump has passed. The purchase index had dropped to 375.6, the lowest level in the current downturn, from around 500 a year earlier.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061129/bs_nm/usa_economy_mortgages_dc_1

[RawMaterials]

17. U.S. to freeze mortgage loan limit

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Tuesday that it would freeze the size of so-called conforming loans that carry lower interest rates after U.S. home prices fell in October for the first time in 13 years.

The average price of a U.S. single-family home fell 0.2% to $306,258 in October from a year earlier, the first decline since 1993, OFHEO said. The average home price is tallied by using data from 14,729 loans made by 82 different lenders.

OFHEO sets the limit of loans that can be bought by government-chartered mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac based on year-over-year changes in October home prices. The agency will freeze the conforming-loan limit at $417,000 and defer for one year the reduction mandated by law to reflect the October price decline, OFHEO Director James Lockhart said in a statement. The U.S. housing market is flooded with unsold properties because potential buyers are waiting until prices stop falling.

"We made this decision so as not to disrupt the end-of-the-year pipeline of mortgages or the market for mortgage-backed securities," Lockhart said.

Home resales rose 0.5% in October to 6.24 million at an annualized pace, the National Assn. of Realtors said Tuesday.


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ofheo29nov29,1,2691519.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

HMM PP team getting ready to mess with housing?

[54anickel]

31. Rather like the "enabling" of an alcoholic, isn't it? n/t

[spotbird]

24. October home sale prices sink

The average price of a house sold in the region last month fell 4.7 percent compared with a year earlier, driving the average for the year below last year's levels.

.....

The drop was biggest in Northern Kentucky, where the average price fell 8 percent, to $149,404 from $162,506.

The average price fell 6 percent in Southeast Indiana, to $162,250 from $172,586, and 4.1 percent in Southwest Ohio, to $170,492 from $177,794.

.....

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061129/BIZ01/611290348/1076/BIZ

[ozymandius]

7. Weak US 'to hit global growth'

World economic growth will slow to its weakest level in four years in 2007, dragged down by a US slowdown, a global think tank has predicted.

Growth will slow to 2.5% in 2007 from 3.2% this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said.

But a strong performance from Europe and Asia will offset US weakness.

"Rather than a major slowdown, what the world economy may be facing is a rebalancing of growth," the OECD said.

-cut-

'Rebalancing'

"Recent developments point to an unwinding of cyclical differences, with activity having slowed in the United States and Japan, and gathered speed in Europe," OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6191088.stm

[ozymandius]

8. Stock futures rise before GDP report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures rose slightly on Wednesday before figures on third-quarter economic growth, which could be revised higher, suggesting continued corporate profit growth.

The Commerce Department was scheduled to release revised gross domestic product data at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT). In addition, the Federal Reserve's beige book at 2 p.m. ET could shed light on the economy and outlook for interest rates.

-cut-

"It looks like the market is going to open up today," said Jason Henninger, a portfolio manager at McQueen, Ball & Associates, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. "When the GDP number comes out, it is likely to be adjusted upward. If that holds true, then the market could hold on to some momentum here."

-cut-

Investors were particularly concerned about the outlook for interest rates after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech on Tuesday that the U.S. economy is poised to expand at a moderate rate but that risks of higher inflation still remain.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061129/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_32

[RawMaterials]

23. Economy growing faster than thought

Third quarter GDP is revised up to 2.2 percent growth rate, higher than 1.6 percent original estimate, easily topping forecasts.
November 29 2006: 8:43 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy grew at a much faster pace in the third quarter than originally estimated, the government reported Wednesday.

The gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at a 2.2 percent annual growth rate, much better than the 1.6 percent rate in the government's original estimate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a revision up to only 1.8 percent.

The report's key inflation measure, the so-called core PCE deflator which measures prices paid by consumers for goods other than food and energy, was up only 2.2 percent, down from the 2.3 percent increase in the original reading, suggesting that the better than expected growth can take place without increased price pressure.


http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/29/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2006112908

[AnneD]

49. In what country is this happening

cus it sure isn't happening in my hood.

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.39 Change +0.26 (+0.31%)

Dollar Recoups Some Losses

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar_Recoups_Some_Losses_1164798823555.html

Complete reversal of news from Japan tonight as Industrial Production registered much stronger than expected results jumping 1.6% vs. estimates of a -0.4% contraction. The gains were driven by the auto sector which is enjoying unprecedented competitive advantages in both North America and Europe due to yen’s weakness against both the greenback and the euro. The sharp rise instantly revived talk of a BoJ rate hike in December with the latest Reuters poll reporting that 14 out 33 economists expect the Japanese central bank to tighten. However, as we noted yesterday the Japanese economy is schizophrenically divided into a very robust corporate sector and an anemic consumer base. The BoJ is unlikely to act until it can be relatively confident that consumer sentiment will perk up. To that end Thursday’s jobless figures, overall household spending report and CPI data could all make or break the case for a December rate hike. For the time being the market has its doubts as USD/JPY retraced nearly all of its losses in early European trade after the initial surprise in IP results, wore off.

Meanwhile in Switzerland, economic data was not nearly as rosy, as the the KOF index of leading economic indicators missed badly to the downside printing at 1.73 versus 1.90 expected. The month prior was revised downward as well from 2.00 to 1.95. This was the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the KOF suggesting that Swiss growth may have peaked. The news is unlikely to effect SNB widely expected decision to raise ratesby another 25 basis points to 2.00% at the next scheduled SNB directorate meeting on December 14th but it may impact future policy actions in Q1 of 2007 especially if Swiss GDP growth slows markedly. With Swiss rate hikes already lagging the pace of tightening by the ECB, the Swissie continued to be pressured in European trade with EUR/CHF flirting once again with the 1.5900 figure.

The dollar, however managed to stage a mild comeback, as commentary from French FinMin on the dangers of a high euro and general profit taking helped to push the EUR/USD to 1.3150. But greenback longs looking for a turn need to be careful. Dollar bulls desperately need some positive economic news to stem the tide of losses and alter market sentiment and unless the GDP figures and New Home Sales numbers print better than expected the anti-dollar momentum express will likely roll on.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

19. EUR Fell Heavily To Yen, Slightly Higher To CHF And Lower Against Other Majors Late Tuesday

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061129\ACQRTT200611290156RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0073.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

(RTTNews) - The European currency made a steep fall against the Japanese Yen late evening New York Tuesday following the Japanese industrial production data for October. Against the Swiss Franc, euro was largely uncertain but trended slightly lower against other major currencies. Lately, into the small Wednesday hours, euro has made a few advances against most majors but has been continuing sideways against the yen. No key economic data are expected for the day from European economy.

Following various US economic data, euro crossed 1.32 against greenback earlier on Tuesday. Into the late deals of the day, euro was declining slightly. Euro is still sitting near its 20-month high set early Friday against its US counterpart.

The European currency trended slightly lower into the late evening deals of New York Tuesday but made a sharp surge by about 6:45 pm. Pair dropped soon after but spurted north again. But from 1.3216, euro weakened steadily and entered a choppy trend by around 10 pm ET. EUR/USD continued the same trend into the overnight trading but lately, made a few advances. Pair was worth 1.3198 as of 1:45 am Eastern Time, Wednesday.

During the late Tuesday New York trading, European currency trended lower versus sterling. Moving down off 0.6764 quoted at 5:10 pm, pair entered a range that limited between 0.6754 and 0.6757 by about 11:00 pm ET. Into the small Wednesday hours too, pair continued the same range. But of late, pair ticked up by a few pips. As of 1:45 am Eastern Time, a euro collected 0.6757 GBP. British October M4 and net consumer credit data are expected later in the morning.

Intra-day Tuesday, the European currency strengthened to a new multi-year high crossing 153 but lost heavily following Japanese economic release at 6:45 pm. Moving down off 153.43, pair collected as low as 152.52 by about 10:00 pm, made a few advances after that and has been moving sideways, of late. As of 1:45 am Eastern Time, a euro was worth 152.71 JPY. It was Japanese October industrial production data that pushed euro heavily lower against its Japanese counterpart late Tuesday.

Against the Swiss Franc, euro made a few advances during the late evening deals of Tuesday. Off 1.5880 at 8 pm, pair edged lower but entered an uptrend thereafter. As of 1:45 am Wednesday, a euro was worth 1.5883 Swiss Francs.

European currency made a sharp surge against its Canadian counterpart at about 7:00 pm Tuesday. Moving off 1.4909, pair fetched as high as 1.4958 shortly after and then steadied lower. Into the midnight hours, made an edge higher and thereafter, moved sideways. Of late, EUR/CAD drifted higher by a few points and as of 1:45 am ET, a euro was worth 1.4952 CAD. Several Canadian economic data are expected later in the morning.

[54anickel]

35. Will China Lead A Stampede Out Of The US Dollar?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/nov292006.html

The $2 trillion per day foreign exchange market never sleeps. Yet for the past six months, the big-3 central banks, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan managed to lull the currency markets into a deep trance. Since last May, the big-3 central banks corralled the US dollar to within a 3% to 5% trading range against the British pound, the Euro and Japanese yen.

The big-3 central banks utilized their three major weapons, (1) relentless jawboning, (2) Japanese threats of intervention, and (3) coordinated rate hikes, telegraphed far in advance to avoid any nasty surprises in the markets. But the big-3’s spell-binding magic act began to wind down on November 25th, when Chinese deputy central banker Wu Xialong jolted the foreign currency markets, warning other Asian central bankers of the future risk of a US dollar devaluation.

Beijing is having second thoughts about the composition of its $1 trillion portfolio of FX reserves, with 70% held in low yielding US fixed income securities. “Firstly, long-term US interest rates are falling. Secondly, the exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets,” Wu said.

snip>

The Bush administration grants Beijing free and unfettered access to US consumer markets, in return for massive Chinese purchases of US bonds. But since Beijing decoupled the yuan from the rigid peg of 8.27 /US$, the yuan has appreciated by 5.6% to 7.835 per US dollar. That’s translated into a 10% loss for Beijing’s holdings of 10-year US Treasury notes when converted back into Chinese yuan.

snip>

Forward traders in Hong Kong predict the dollar will fall another 4% to 7.53 yuan within the next 12-months. US Treasury chief Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will meet with Chinese officials on Dec 14-15th in Beijing. The yuan had its largest monthly gain in September, when Paulson held talks in Beijing with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

more...

[RawMaterials]

10. Bernanke Scrutinizes Labor Costs for Signs of Faster Inflation

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a new source of inflation may be emerging in rising wages and salaries even as energy prices retreat.

He gave no indication in a speech yesterday that the central bank may reduce interest rates in response to slowing economic growth. Instead, Bernanke said policy makers are watching to see whether companies pass on pay increases to customers, which would raise the prospect of faster inflation.

``Bernanke put much more emphasis on inflation risks arising from unit labor costs than we have heard to date,'' said Laurence Meyer, the Washington-based vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC and a former Fed governor. Elevated inflation and low unemployment ``limit the Federal Open Market Committee's worries about a period of below-trend growth.''

Wages and benefits paid to American workers rose 1 percent last quarter, the most since 2004, the Labor Department said last month. In other areas, cost pressures are easing. Oil prices are down about 22 percent from a high of $78.40 on July 14 and the median sales price of previously owned homes fell by a record last month, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.

Compensation is increasing as unemployment falls. The jobless rate dropped to a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October even as economic growth slowed in the last two quarters.

snip..

Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat in line to be chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview yesterday on CNBC that he is ``troubled to hear'' that Bernanke is more concerned about inflation than an economic slowdown.

Bernanke was careful to couch his warnings on labor costs as an unresolved question, noting that higher wages need not be inflationary.

If corporations absorb wage increases by reducing their profit margins, then workers would enjoy gains in income without pushing up prices. Higher incomes in that case may be welcome to the Fed because they would stimulate consumption.

``Workers would capture a greater share of the fruits of the high rate of productivity growth seen in recent years,'' Bernanke said. ``The data on costs, margins, and prices in coming months may shed some light on which of these two scenarios is likely to be the better description of events.''

Companies have been able to maintain profit margins, according to calculations by Bloomberg News using figures compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A measure of private-sector wages as a share of gross corporate profit margins was 51 percent in the second quarter, matching the post-World War II low reached in the first quarter.

``It's too early to tell if higher labor costs are being passed on to consumers,'' said Amar Mann, an economist at the western regional office of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in San Francisco. ``The concern is'' that compensation exceeds gains in productivity, or the amount that workers produce per hour, he added.





http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXNlBtyo9XPQ&refer=us

[Ghost Dog]

18. Some Questions for the Fed Chairman

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2006/db20061128_835313.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5

Were Ben Bernanke's largely positive comments during a speech in New York too optimistic?

by Peter Coy

Ben Bernanke gave a speech on the economy on Nov. 28 in New York, but afterward he exited via a side door without taking questions. Last I saw them, the Federal Reserve chairman and his posse were piling into black cars and zooming down Fifth Avenue, blue lights flashing. Oh, well. If Bernanke had stayed around for questions, here are some of the things I would have liked to know from the man with a grip on the nation's money spigot:

What makes you so cheerful about the economic outlook?

In your speech to the National Italian American Foundation at the Pierre Hotel, you said, "Over the next year or so, the economy appears likely to expand at a moderate rate, close to or modestly below the economy's long-run sustainable pace." That would be a little under 3%, which is pretty good considering what's going on these days. Housing continues to weaken. Consumer confidence is below expectations. And on Nov. 28, the Census Bureau announced that orders for durable goods fell 8.3% in October, more than expected. The bearish Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist of High Frequency Economics, said that your remarks on GDP growth, housing, capital spending, and so forth, are "only plausible if the data are viewed through deeply tinted rose lenses." So why the good cheer?

What house prices have you been looking at lately, Dr. Bernanke?

Here's what you said about house prices: "There can be little doubt that the rate of home-price appreciation has slowed significantly for the nation as a whole." That is what I'd call an understatement. Prices are outright falling by several measures, though not all. In fact, shortly before your speech, the National Association of Realtors announced that the median sales price for existing homes in October was 3.5% lower than the median a year earlier. That's not just a "slowing" of "appreciation." (Unless, of course, you regard depreciation as just appreciation with a minus sign in front of it, which may be what you were thinking.) It's true that the Realtors' numbers are skewed by a downscale shift in the mix of homes sold. Even so, that was the biggest annual decline since the Realtors started collecting numbers in 1968.

Where's the inflation you talked about?

/couple more questions...

[AnneD]

28. What is the most telling...

are the readers questions. Seems like we on this board aren't the only skeptical ones.:rofl: Some how I would feel more reassured if this guy had done some real world labour. Until then, I will try to keep my tongue in check. :sarcasm:

[Ghost Dog]

11. Japan's industrial production soars, boosting rate hike case

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061129/afp/061129053932eco.html

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's industrial output unexpectedly shot up in October as car and semiconductor manufacturers ramped up production, the government said, lifting expectations of higher interest rates.

Output grew 1.6 percent from the previous month, much better than market expectations for a 0.4 percent fall and an earlier government projection of a 0.2 percent drop, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed.

The gains erased a sharp decline in September which had spooked the markets, with the index rising 7.4 percent year-on-year to reach a record high of 107.8.

Wednesday's data "offset anxiety among investors on the outlook of the Japanese economy which was caused by weak figures during this summer," NLI Research Institute senior economist Yasuhide Yajima said.

"If the consumer prices due this week and a US manufacturing index on December 1 turn out to be better than expected, I think it is plausible that the Bank of Japan will raise its key rate in December," Yajima said.

The market is braced for the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate of borrowing to 0.50 percent either next month or in early 2007, the first rate hike since July when it ended its unorthodox five-year policy of zero interest.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Yen jumps on surprisingly strong Japan output data

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061129:MTFH26157_2006-11-29_06-13-57_T151860&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The yen jumped against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday on surprisingly strong Japanese industrial output data that bolstered expectations for the Bank of Japan to bump up interest rates as soon as December.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

13. Nikkei closes above 16,000 for first time in week

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061129:MTFH26098_2006-11-29_06-09-25_T134610&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average topped 16,000 for the first time in more than a week on Wednesday, gaining 1.4 percent after stronger-than-expected industrial output data boosted a wide range of stocks including Canon Inc. (7751.T: Quote, NEWS, Research).

The data encouraged investors to buy back shares in manufacturers such as Canon and companies that rely on domestic demand, such as Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.T: Quote, NEWS, Research).

The Nikkei <.N225> advanced 220.94 points to 16,076.20, closing above the psychologically key 16,000 mark for the first time since Nov. 17.

The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> gained 1.6 percent to 1,580.10.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

16. Asian Stocks Climb to Six-Month High as Toyota, PetroChina Gain

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aVvt95aBx.uQ&refer=stocks

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed to a six-month high, led by Toyota Motor Corp. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc., after Japan's industrial production rose to a record and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. growth will pick up next year.

``The biggest economies in the world are still growing, and that's got to be good for everybody,'' said Hans Kunnen, who helps oversee $70 billion at Colonial First State in Sydney. ``There had been so much concern about the U.S. economy dragging down stocks.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.7 percent to 134.42 as of 3:15 p.m. in Tokyo, set to close at its highest since May 17. All 10 industry groups gained. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.4 percent to 16,076.20.

...

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.7 percent after yesterday's biggest point decline since the Sept. 11 terror attacks. Esprit Holdings Ltd. advanced on speculation gains in the euro will boost European revenue. Markets rose around the region, except in the Philippines and Pakistan.

...

``Bernanke's remarks helped ease concern that U.S. consumers may lose the wealth effect coming from their homes and cut back on spending,'' said Kim Hyung Chan, who manages about $600 million at KTB Asset Management Co. in Seoul. :eyes:

/...

[Ghost Dog]

21. Modest rebound for Europe’s bourses

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39050.2704282407-885179598&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European equity markets moved higher by mid-morning on Wednesday, staging a modest recovery after five consecutive days of trading losses.

Bid speculation continues to swirl around the German carmakers sector as investors question Porsche’s intentions towards Volkswagen. Porsche, up 2.2 per cent to €873.48, has been stakebuilding in VW, 3 per cent higher at 84.52, but has denied that it is interested in mounting a full takeover. However, speculation is growing that Porsche wants to gain control of Audi from VW in order to extend its luxury brands and to save manufacturing costs.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 gained 10.7 points or 0.7 per cent at 1,435.69 while the German Xetra Dax added 39.7 points or 0.6 per cent at 6,320.38 and the French CAC 40 increased 31.7 points or 0.6 per cent at 5,337.52.

[Ghost Dog]

22. FTSE reverses losing streak

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39050.3140625-885182100&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

London equities moved higher on Wednesday following six consecutive sessions of losses.

...

In London, financial services stocks rose amid fresh takeover speculation.

...

By midday, the FTSE 100 rebounded 38.9 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 6,065.3, after a fall of 2.9 per cent over the last six sessions. The mid-cap FTSE 250 surged 162.9 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 10.659.1.

/..

[texpatriot2004]

14. Love the toon nm

[RawMaterials]

15. Pensions: The holy grail of the asset classes

In recent years, financial markets have found ways to trade everything from the outcome of elections to the weather. But one risk has defeated the best minds in the business - the risk faced by pension funds that their members will live longer than expected.
"It is the holy grail," says Dan Ozizmir, head of insurance-linked securities at Swiss Re. "It's a risk facing everyone, not just insurers and pension funds but governments, corporations and individuals."

snip


Historically, the main option has been to transfer the risk of a closed scheme to an insurance company, using the pension fund's assets to buy annuities to pay the promised benefits.

As more companies have looked to take this route, a raft of new insurance vehicles have been set up in the UK to compete for the business with the traditional providers of such "bulk annuities", such as Prudential and Legal & General, as well as new entrants among established insurers. Most recently, Goldman Sachs announced plans to set up such a vehicle.

Some bankers say it is inevitable that the capital markets will also play a role in taking on longevity risk. Caitlin Long, head of the insurance solutions group at Credit Suisse, says: "Capital markets to trade longevity and mortality risk will develop soon. There is simply not enough capital in the life insurance industry to absorb the entire longevity exposure in pension plans."

It is likely that the new entrants will be keen to sell off some of their longevity risk into the capital markets. Lord Turner, who is a director of one the new vehicles, Paternoster, said it could at some stage be an issuer of liquid instruments carrying longevity risk.

Moreover, some established insurers are eager to reduce their exposure to longevity as they are to other risks.

snip..

More fundamentally, say the sceptics, while everybody seems to want to get rid of longevity risk who wants to buy it?

After all, in recent years, it has been a one-way bet, with longevity steadily increasing, ahead of expectation, causing huge losses for the holders.

But Rob Procter, who with fellow former Morgan Stanley analyst Espen Nordhus, runs a London-based hedge fund, Securis Investment Partners, investing insurance risks, says there are now competing views about future longevity.

Their fund is part of the flood of hedge fund money looking for investments that are uncorrelated with leading financial markets.

Longevity risk represents a potentially huge new asset class. "There are plenty of people who want to be on the other side of the longevity risk if it is priced correctly," says Mr Procter.

But there's the rub, according to Julia Coronado, US economist at Barclays Capital in New York. She is sceptical that investors will offer a price that is sufficiently attractive for pension funds. She is particularly doubtful that much of a liquid market will develop in the US where longevity risk is less of an issue because fewer pension schemes have inflation-linked benefits. In addition, many companies are succeeding in transferring the risk to individuals by offering lump sum payout options. The regulatory climate also makes US pension schemes very nervous of innovation. Mr Ozizmir also believes that pricing remains a problem at the moment but says the longer term potential is clear. "It could be one of the largest asset classes in the world. But its going to take time."



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061129/bs_ft/fto112920060627466332

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Or should I say 'Mourning Marketeers' It seems these folks are having the same problems that philosophers have had for centuries, 'What is the value of a human being?'. This is a very meaty article and I gave it a once over, but I need to cogitate on it and the implications. Thanks RawMaterials.

The only thing that comes close it the insurance policies (death) that companies use to secretly take out on workers. Considering one company was Wal Mart and considering their health insurance benefits...the concept is questionable. I can see potential for abuse, but maybe it is just me. I am going to need another :donut: and think over this one.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

43. Nearly half of Ford workforce accepts buyout

...transferring the risk to individuals by offering lump sum payout options

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15953806/

About 38,000 Ford Motor workers, or close to half of the troubled carmaker's US blue-collar workforce, have accepted early retirement and severance packages as part of its turnaround plan.

The response to the buyout offer is well above the target set in September, when Ford unveiled an accelerated version of its Way Forward recovery plan.

Analysts said the response would enable Ford to achieve significantly higher cost savings than the plan's goal of $5bn by 2008.

Together with similar packages offered by General Motors, Delphi, the bankrupt parts maker, and other suppliers, the acceptances at Ford mean that close to 100,000 unionised workers will leave the Detroit-based auto industry between the start of this year and autumn 2007. Thousands of salaried workers are also set to clear their desks.

The exodus has contributed to rising unemployment in states such as Michigan and Ohio, raising concerns about potential long-term social dislocation. Michigan's October jobless rate of 6.9 per cent was the highest of any state.

On the other hand, the departures have already forced GM and Delphi to hire thousands of lower-paid temporary workers to minimise disruption in production.

more...

[54anickel]

46. Hundreds of International Truck employees offered buyouts

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/16124328.htm

As many as 400 employees of International Truck and Engine Corp. may leave the company under a “voluntary separation” agreement International has offered its non-union employees.

If employees take the deal they will receive a severance package based on length of employment of up to 26 weeks of pay and insurance benefits.

“We are just looking at our staffing situation.... We’ve had several large programs coming to a conclusion,” said Jeff Benzing, communications manager for International in Fort Wayne.

Benzing said International had no set goal for how many employees it hoped would accept the deal, and he said he would not comment on whether layoffs will follow in January.

snip>

Another reason for the downsizing action is a downturn in the trucking industry expected to begin in early 2007 when new Environmental Protection Agency emissions requirements take effect.

more...

[AnneD]

48. I think

our theme song is Bruce Springsteins My Hometown

I was eight years old and running with a dime in my hand
Into the bus stop to pick up a paper for my old man
I'd sit on his lap in that big old Buick and steer as we drove through town
He'd tousle my hair and say son take a good look around,this is your hometown
This is your hometown
This is your hometown
<snip>
Now Main Street's whitewashed windows and vacant stores
Seems like there ain't nobody wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks
Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming backto your hometown
Your hometown
Your hometown
Your hometown

Last night me and Kate we laid in bed
Talking about getting out
Packing up our bags maybe heading south
I'm thirty-five, we got a boy of our own now
Last night I sat him up behind the wheel and said son take a good look around, this is your hometown.

One of my fav's

[54anickel]

50. Anne, did you catch this one on the hospital closings?

Plan Could Close 20 or More New York Hospitals

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/29/nyregion/29hosp.html?ex=1322456400&en=7c08722a4489a517&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A long-awaited plan to shrink New York State’s hospital industry landed yesterday with force, with proposals that could effectively eliminate 20 or more hospitals and thousands of jobs, and make dozens of other hospitals shrink, merge or take on new roles.

The recommendations by the Commission on Health Care Facilities in the 21st Century go far beyond the nine hospital closings and downsizings that state officials reported late Monday, after being briefed by the commission. Several other hospitals would cease to exist through mergers or conversion to new uses, and more could be eliminated if they refuse to merge.

In addition, the commission reached deep into the particular operations of many individual institutions, ordering them to eliminate specific numbers of beds, telling some to eliminate psychiatric, substance abuse or maternity wards, and in some cases directing others to take on those functions.

The changes would mark an epochal shift in an industry that, person for person, is much bigger in New York than in other states, and traditionally has fiercely resisted shrinkage. But hospitals are also in worse financial shape in New York than in any other state, having lost money for eight consecutive years.

more...

[AnneD]

56. Yes I did....

some of it totally makes no sense. It seems like they want to shift a public trust to a private enterprise (gov hospitals to private hospitals). It seems like the prescription drug plan-the only one's that made out were the Drug companies.

On paper, it looks like one big disaster. Like taking an omelet and trying to make eggs.
I can understand the need for some single emphasis hospitals like say a psych hospital, but some of what they plan sounds dangerous. I can see folks dying in transit. And what about something major, like a pandemic. Now some hospitals can take overflow but in this plan, that doesn't look possible.

You can't superimpose the business model on the hospital. They can be made to be more efficient yes, but they really shouldn't be cut. You don't cut fire stations because there are no fires during the month. When you need them, there is no substitute. Same with hospitals. I can't tell you how many hospitals have seen an increase in their ER and have to go to drive by status. Or they can't take patients because they are too cheap to have enough Nurses available.

I am slated to work at a skilled Nursing Unit and yet I am seldom called to keep up my skills. When I am called, I am expected to drop my life and answer at the last minute (they called me 2 days before a shift over the Thanksgiving holiday and expect me to cancel things). Just in time may work as an inventory method but it is not a way to staff a hospital.

I feel for the folks in NY. I am not worried about the staff, but once you let these folks go....they're gone.

[Ghost Dog]

20. New York Fed appoints Goldman's Dudley -WSJ

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-11-29T063536Z_01_N29428118_RTRIDST_0_NYFED-DUDLEY.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is appointing one of Wall Street's best known economists to a key job overseeing financial markets, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Wednesday.

The bank is expected to announce on Wednesday that William Dudley, currently an advisory director of investment bank Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), will become executive vice president for markets on Jan. 1, succeeding Dino Kos, the WSJ reported.

Dudley, 53 years old, had spent a decade up until last year as chief U.S. economist for Goldman, the WSJ said.

The New York Fed's markets chief is manager of the central bank's "open market account", responsible for implementing the central bank's interest-rate decisions through operations in the bond and money markets. He also oversees foreign-exchange intervention on behalf of both the Fed and the Treasury.

/..

[54anickel]

34. Now that's making me nervous! All those early meetings between

the Treasury (under Snow) and Wall Street experts, that BS of needing to sell a "new economy" to the "unsophisticated" general public (non-bankers) and now this latest development.

[AnneD]

51. It makes no difference....

Snow job or blow job....we 'unsophisticated' are going to 'get it' soon enough.

[ozymandius]

25. 10:04 snapshot

Dow 12,193.33 Up 56.88 (0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,431.35 Up 18.74 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,394.42 Up 7.70 (0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.491% Down 0.018
NYSE Volume 383,553,000
Nasdaq Volume 314,864,000

09:40 am : Strong follow-through buying seen in stocks at the onset of trading as a preliminary read on Q3 GDP reduces fears of a significant slowdown in the economy. Earlier, the Commerce Dept. reported an upward revision in Q3 GDP growth, to 2.2% (consensus 1.8%) from 1.6%. Since the data back Fed Chairman Bernanke's upbeat comments yesterday on the economy and offer more evidence that the soft landing is on track, the bulls have returned to restore enthusiasm for equities following Monday's broad-based pullback. DJ30 +37.41 NASDAQ +15.61 SP500 +5.35 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 42 mln

[ozymandius]

26. updating blather

10:00 am : The indices continue to sport solid gains as all 10 economic sectors are trading higher. Pacing the way to the upside is Telecom (+1.5%), fueled by analyst upgrade on Dow component Verizon Communications (VZ 34.83 +0.43). Upside leadership from influential areas like Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary -- all of which are up 0.6%, is also providing some notable support in the early going. Tech is getting its biggest lift from a 1.8% surge in Intel Corp (INTC 21.35 +0.37), which won a patent-infringement lawsuit. A 2.0% gain in shares of Dell (DELL 27.48 +0.53) and Apple Computer (AAPL 92.78 +0.97), which initially gapped up to challenge its November high of 93.16 after Bear Stearns raised their price target on the stock to $100, are providing additional sector support. DJ30 +52.55 NASDAQ +14.82 SP500 +6.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 619/1797/218 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 573/2181/94 mln

[JNelson6563]

29. Thank god we turn a blind eye to bad news

Markets in the US are looking good in spite of it all. Japan has the world's number 1 auto maker, no suprise to see them doing well. China is kicking our ass in every way and the American worker is screwed.

Julie

[54anickel]

30. The End is Never the Same (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2006/20061127-Mon.html#anchor3996

* What’s new

Drawing comfort from a benign inflation outlook, financial markets are convinced that central banks pose little risk of a classic interest-rate-led endgame. However, just because cycles of the past have been terminated by interest rate pressures, that need not be the case in the current cycle.


* Conclusions

Three possibilities — none of them driven by interest rates — have the potential to trigger a cyclical endgame: (1) A post-housing-bubble shakeout in the US could derail the American consumer and a still US-centric global economy. (2) The renewed decline in the dollar is a reminder of the possibility that massive global imbalances could lead to a disruptive rebalancing of the world economy. (3) A pro-labor shift in economic policies could occur — reflecting a backlash over growing inequalities of income distribution; a post-election US is especially vulnerable, but there are similar risks in Europe, China, and India.


* Market implications and risks

Awash in liquidity, financial market participants have no compunction about putting more and more money to work in what they perceive to be benign circumstances. I have my doubts. The risk is that investors are trapped in the past — unprepared for an outcome that could be very different from the inflation- and interest-rate-led endgames of earlier cycles.


DETAILS

We are all creatures of habit. That’s true of economists, investors, policy makers, and politicians — all of whom look to signs from the past as guides to the future. That leaves us captives of history, whether we like it or not. I have great respect for history and spend a lot of my time reading it. But I have long been struck by the flaws of autoregressive thinking — extrapolating on the basis of recent trends and looking for guidance from historical patterns to predict the future. Time and again, we learn that no two cyclical endgames are alike. Yet time and again, we draw the wrong inferences from patterns of earlier periods. This is one of those times.

On one level, the world is in the midst of a very benign cyclical climate. At work is a remarkably constructive inflation climate. Absent the normal tendency of a cyclical upsurge in inflation, there appears to be no need for central banks to take the proverbial punchbowl away — to borrow from the imagery of former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin. A lot has been made about the recent updrift in core inflation — hitting 2.9% for America’s core CPI, 2% in the Euro-zone, and a fractionally positive reading in a long deflationary Japanese economy. But let’s face it, by standards of the past 35 years, these are excellent outcomes. In that context, the “normalization” response of central banks is a far more tolerable course of action than the wrenching monetary tightenings that have wreaked such havoc on cycles of the past. Awash in liquidity, financial market participants have no compunction about putting more and more money to work. Absent the primary peril of past cycles, goes the argument, there seems to be little to fear in the current cycle.

Yet this time is different. Sure, that’s the classic “ah ha!” — code words for ever-cynical investors to ignore anything that follows. But it’s important to understand the corollary of this reaction — namely that nothing ever changes. That’s where I have a serious problem. Consider globalization — the most important mega-force of our lifetime. This is the first time that the powerful disinflationary forces of globalization have had a major impact on the endgame of a modern-day business cycle. Consider IT-enabled technological change; this is the first time that revolutionary breakthroughs in connectivity, miniaturization, and software programming have shaped the cyclical endgame. Consider ever-mounting global imbalances — a disparity between current account surpluses and deficits that has reached a record 6% of world GDP. This is the first time that imbalances of this magnitude have threatened the global economy and world financial markets. Consider also the gap between record returns on capital and the sharply depressed rewards of labor in the developed world; it’s been a long time since the potential social and political consequences of such tensions were in play. I could go on and on — underscoring the unprecedented growth in synthetic securities (i.e., derivatives), the doubling of the global labor supply traceable to the emergence of China, India, and the former Soviet Union, rapidly aging populations in the developed world, unfunded retirement and medical-care liabilities, and surging M&A and LBO activity. The point is that it makes no sense whatsoever to ignore the truly unique features of the current climate. Those who dismiss such possibilities because of the legendary lore of four words — “this time is different” — do so at great peril, in my view.

much more...

[54anickel]

32. Your Only Friends (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/nov292006.html

I spent most of last week turning off alarms in the Formidable Mogambo Bunker (FMB), as the plunge of the dollar set off all kinds of the damned things, all blanging and clanging and ringing and buzzing, including the alarms that I installed as backups to the primary alarms in case they failed, and now who in the hell knows where the switches are to turn them all off? Not me, it turns out!

I remember that my Fabulous Mogambo Idea (FMI) at the time was that the deafening din would provide that extra little bit of tension and stress that would put that extra little bit of adrenaline in the blood, which would obviously befit the situation if all those alarms went off, as it meant that, in an old West reference, it was "Dog-eat-dog time at the OK Corral!"

For one thing, the Treasury increased the national debt by a whopping $55 billion since November 1! As scary as that is, the Fed is back to its old tricks, and Total Fed Credit jumped by $4.1 billion last week, meaning that the banks are being flooded with credit again, so that banks can loan money, so that the money can add to the bidding up of prices of stuff, which is nowadays defined as "stocks, bonds, houses and size of government."

The temporary good news is that the Fed's, and all the world's, monetary excesses have pretty much gone into stocks, bonds, houses and government, and everything is having a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful, especially since price inflation in stocks, bonds, houses or size of government are not considered to be actual evidence of, you know, inflation.

Perhaps this explains why Doug Nolan, in his Credit Bubble Bulletin at PrudentBear.com, reports that Bloomberg's John Fraher writes “Billionaire George Soros said there’s a danger that a ‘private-equity bubble’ could burst, threatening the global financial system. Soros said that private-equity firms are channeling excessive liquidity in the global economy into the financial markets."

Well, memo to George Soros: "Well, duh!"

more...

[Roland99]

37. "Treasury increased the national debt by a whopping $55 billion since November 1"

Yikes!

[54anickel]

41. BA jets grounded after radiation discovered at Heathrow (WTF 4 weeks later)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2478451,00.html

Three British Airways aircraft were grounded tonight at Heathrow Airport after police and scientists investigating the murder of Alexander Litvinenko discovered traces of radiation on two planes.

The Home Office said that radiation tests were being carried out "to assess if there is any risk to public health" as BA announced it was trying to contact hundreds of passengers who travelled on four flights between Moscow and London in the last week of October and first week of November.

BA said in a statement that three B767 short-haul aircraft, used on European routes, had been grounded for forensic examination after tests found "very low traces of a radioactive substance on board two of the three aircraft".

"British Airways has been advised that this investigation is confined solely to these three B767 aircraft, which will remain out of service until further notice," the airline said. "British Airways understands that from advice it has been given, the risk to public health is low."

snip>

So far eight people with suspicious symptoms are being assessed by a specialist clinic to see if they have been contaminated. More than 1,100 people have called a national helpline worried that they could have been exposed to polonium, traces of which have been discovered at least six locations in London already.

more...

[54anickel]

42. The Fed cries wolf, but Mr Market isn’t listening

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/644269.cms

NEW YORK: Federal Reserve officials are getting a first-hand lesson in the law of diminishing returns: Try as they might, they can’t seem to get the same mileage from their hawkish rhetoric.

In the past few months, every time a policy maker found a waiting platform, he or she used the opportunity to remind us that the Fed is more concerned about rising inflation than slowing growth.

Their words had predictable results. The prices of interest-rate futures contracts that reflect expectations of Fed policy sank, wiping out the gains registered on weak economic data.

The gyrations have been large. The June Eurodollar futures contract rallied 43 basis points from 94.72 on September 18 to 95.15 on October 4. The gains were completely reversed over the next three weeks as various Fed officials reiterated their concerns about inflation accelerating or failing to retreat from its current unacceptably high levels.

Then something strange happened. The market stopped listening. While June Eurodollars have yet to scale their former heights, they haven’t revisited their September/October lows in the face of repeated reminders of the risks of inflation from the Fed.

more...

[ozymandius]

44. PPT making up for lost time.

Dow 12,226.41 Up 89.96 (0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,432.23 Up 19.62 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,399.23 Up 12.51 (0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521% Up 0.012
NYSE Volume 2,705,362,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,866,749,000

These are the closing numbers. Some settling may occur.

[54anickel]

45. Pfizer to cut US sales force 20 percent

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8LMRVE01.htm

Pfizer Inc.'s decision to cut 20 percent, or 2,200 jobs, from its U.S. sales force may trigger other companies to slash their own ranks of representatives, ending an expensive and not especially efficient arms race, analysts said.

On Tuesday, Pfizer said it would cut the jobs as part of a cost-cutting program to transform the company into a more nimble organization as it struggles with sluggish sales.

Analysts applauded the move, which they speculated could save Pfizer between $400 million and $500 million annually. But beyond the benefits for Pfizer, analysts hoped other companies would consider paring back their own expensive sales forces as some of them face patent expirations and lackluster pipelines.

In recent years, drug companies have added sales staff but analysts have questioned whether having hordes of representatives repeatedly visiting doctors was economical because patients' health plans play a crucial role in what drugs are prescribed. Patients will often ask a doctor to prescribe a treatment on their health plans' preferred drug list because the copayment is lower.

Pfizer's marketing prowess is renowned in the industry and analysts said its competitors were reluctant to cut their own sales staffs when they had to contend with the might of the world's largest drug company. Now that may change.

more...

[AnneD]

57. FYI

they are the giant in the industry. Look for cut backs in other drug companies to start being announced. There is sure to be a shake up here.

[54anickel]

47. Dollar General to shut down 400 stores, names new President

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1433190.html

NEW YORK, November 29 (newratings.com) – Discount retailer Dollar General Corp (DG.NYS) Wednesday announced its plans to close nearly 400 stores, while naming a new president.

The Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based company said that David Bere would become the new president and chief operating officer, with effect from December 4. The company said that it has devised a plan to improve its profitability, which would cost nearly $138 million and include the closure of 400 stores, layoffs and significant markdowns. David Perdue, Dollar General’s CEO, said, "These strategic changes are designed to enhance the shopping experience for our customers and put the company on a solid foundation for profitable and sustainable growth in the future." "We expect these changes will ultimately strengthen our store base, improve our long-term profitability and create value for our shareholders," Perdue added.

[AnneD]

52. That's rich

"These strategic changes are designed to enhance the shopping experience for our customers and put the company on a solid foundation for profitable and sustainable growth in the future." "We expect these changes will ultimately strengthen our store base, improve our long-term profitability and create value for our shareholders," Perdue added.

Enhance the shopping experience? Everytime I come out of most dollar stores I feel like I need a shower. Talk about bottom feeding.

[ozymandius]

54. Maybe if they would stop selling poisonous crap then people would want to shop there.

Check out the "food" selections next time you're there. It's full of partially hydrogenated this-n-that. In a word: poison. This is what gets sent to discounters' shelves for poor people to eat. While toxic ingredient formulations seem to be diasappearing elsewhere, there's plenty to be had in the poor neighborhoods where one's sure to find a Dollar General store.

[ozymandius]

53. It's official:

The stock market is merely a "trading club" with no relation whatsoever to our collective economic reality.

Dow 12,226.73 Up 90.28 (0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,432.23 Up 19.62 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,399.48 Up 12.76 (0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521% Up 0.012
NYSE Volume 2,729,679,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,946,006,000

4:20 pm : For a second straight day, the bulls returned to recoup some of the extensive losses that stocks endured on Monday, closing the major averages near session highs. Today's anecdote for another recovery consisted of a stronger than expected upward revision to Q3 GDP growth, some upbeat corporate news as well as strong leadership from all 10 economic sectors.

With investors still preoccupied with the pace of economic growth, the Commerce Dept. showed the U.S. economy grew a faster than expected 2.2% pace (consensus 1.8%), up from an advance read of 1.6%, without stoking inflation. A measure of inflation watched by the Fed was revised lower to 2.2% from 2.3%. Since the GDP data support Fed Chairman Bernanke's upbeat comments a day earlier on the economy and offer more evidence that the soft landing is on track, the underlying bullish tone responsible for lifting stocks virtually unabated since mid July resurfaced. To wit, advancers on the NYSE enjoyed a nearly 4-to-1 margin over decliners while those on the Nasdaq held a 2-to-1 advantage.

From a sector standpoint, Energy (+2.9%) again provided the bulk of market support, as its potential to generate strong profit growth for the S&P 500 helped investors look past oil's potential inflationary characteristics. Crude for January delivery closed up 2.4% at $62.46/bbl following unexpected declines in weekly distillate and gasoline inventories. To wit, Exxon Mobil (XOM 76.06 +1.90) and Chevron (CVX 71.49 +1.61) surged to new historic highs.

The Consumer Discretionary sector also provided some notable leadership, getting a lift from several areas. Publishers advanced amid reports that billionaire and former AIG CEO Maurice Greenberg is eyeing a takeover of New York Times (NYT 24.74 +1.71). Another one of the day's best performers on the S&P 500 was Tiffany & Co. (TIF 38.20 +2.27), which surged more than 6% after topping Wall Street expectations and issuing upside EPS guidance for fiscal 2007. In fact, with a plethora of November same-store sales reports hitting the wires tomorrow morning, Tiffany's solid report provided some comfort. Homebuilders also provided sector support as investors looked past a 3.2% in new home sales and focused more on the fact that median prices rose 1.9% in October after falling sharply in September.

Separately, the Beige Book to be used at the Fed's December 12 policy meeting showed that consumer spending in most districts increased during October and early November and that the retail sales outlook for the holiday season was "cautiously optimistic." While the report initially had little impact on stocks, most districts reporting continued moderate growth without evidence of growing inflation pressures eventually helped provide a floor of support for investors dealing with oil prices closing above $62/bbl for the first time in two months. As a reminder, Fed Chairman Bernanke noted yesterday that some of the factors that pushed up core inflation in the recent past -- in particular, energy prices -- "appear likely to be more neutral in the coming year, and inflation expectations remain contained." DJ30 +90.28 NASDAQ +19.62 SP500 +12.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 994/1998/1.83 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 704/2602/1.44 bln

[UpInArms]

55. billionaire and former AIG CEO Maurice Greenberg is eyeing a takeover of New York Times

someone is going to have to hold my hair on this one

:puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke:
:puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke::puke:

that is one evil sumbitch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_R._Greenberg

Kissinger's buddy

[AnneD]

58. I would...

but I'm trying to hold mine. Truly an evil sumbitch.
:puke::puke::puke::puke::puke: