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Is Rafael Correa just paying lip-service to defaulting on foreign debt or is he serious? Washington is taking a wait-and-see approach
A leftist economist who has vowed to break off free-trade talks with the U.S. and advocated defaulting on the country's foreign debt has been elected president of Ecuador. But there is no telling whether 43-year-old Rafael Correa will remain in office long enough to carry out the platform that swept him to victory: Ecuador has had seven presidents in the last 10 years, several of them removed by its congress or forced out by violent street protests after just days or months in office.
Correa, running as an independent in a country where traditional political parties are widely discredited, won 57% of the vote to defeat billionaire banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, a populist. But Correa has no political base in Ecuador's congress, and that means he has a tough road ahead: He campaigned on a promise to dissolve the congress and convene a special assembly to completely rewrite Ecuador's constitution, but the congress is likely to block that initiative. "This is a president who will face possible impeachment at every turn," says Patrick Esteruelas, a Latin America analyst for the Eurasia Group, a New York risk consultancy.
Describing himself as a "close friend" of Venezuela's firebrand President Hugo Chávez, Correa is the latest leftist candidate to win at the polls in Latin America, where voters seem increasingly frustrated with the inability of governments to reduce the poverty that afflicts nearly half of the continent's people, in spite of high world prices for oil and other commodities produced in the region. In early November, Nicaraguans elected former Sandinista revolutionary Daniel Ortega, also friendly with Chávez, and with Cuban leader Fidel Castro, as president. By electing Correa, a political outsider, Ecuadorans made it clear that they are frustrated with corruption and incompetence among their country's political class.
...Correa's election further complicates Washington's relations with South America. Correa has said he will cancel a lease for a U.S. military air base on Ecuador's Pacific Coast that is used for drug-interdiction flights when the agreement expires in 2009. "Correa's discourse was strongly critical of the private sector and of foreign influence on Ecuador, which isn't very promising," says Peter DeShazo, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Andean Affairs. DeShazo says Washington is likely to take a wait-and-see approach with Correa, encouraging him to adopt moderate policies and hoping that he doesn't align himself too closely with Chávez, who in a recent U.N. speech referred to President George W. Bush as the "devil."
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2006/db20061128_612667.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index