STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 15

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 15, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 704 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2243 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1947 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1907
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 14, 2007

Dow... 12,741.86 +87.01 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq... 2,488.38 +28.50 (+1.16%)
S&P 500... 1,455.30 +11.04 (+0.76%)
Gold future... 672.00 +3.50 (+0.52%)
30-Year Bond 4.83% -0.08 (-1.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.73% -0.08 (-1.74%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

A Bird's Eye View of the U.S. Consumer
7th Inning Stretch or 9th Inning?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Last week I looked at housing and its importance as a major contributing factor in GDP in the current economic expansion, which has turned from a tailwind into a headwind as residential fixed investment has contracted. I mentioned that the housing sector, as well as the consumer, are the two key areas one needs to monitor in order to discern whether a mid-cycle slow down or a recession will evolve. Last week's commentary showed the housing situation and cautioned readers from believing in financial pundits calling for a bottom. Frank Barbera has done a great deal of technical and analytical work into the housing sector, specifically the subprime lenders and I would highly recommend readers take a look at his past three WrapUps (Barbera Archive 01/30, 02/06, 02/12). This week’s commentary looks at the health and trends of the U.S. consumer and housing’s influence on the consumer and economy.

The Importance of the Consumer Expenditures on GDP

A picture is worth a thousand words and the following chart does an excellent job in illustrating the importance of consumer expenditures on GDP.

-see chart-

U.S. consumption accounted for just over 60% of GDP in the early 1950s and middle 1960s and has currently risen to 70%. What the figure above also illustrates is that total household debt increased dramatically to finance the increase in U.S. consumption. The figure above shows that consumer spending habits determine 70% of GDP and their willingness to take on more debt plays a very important role in their consumption. The contribution of consumption to GDP contracts in recessions as well as the 84/85 and 94/95 mid-cycle slow downs before reaccelerating higher.

-cut-

Employment

For the sake of stating the obvious, the more people employed the more people earning income to contribute to the aggregate consumption and vice versa. Previous mid-cycle slow downs (84/85, 94/95) saw a contraction in the year-over-year (YOY) rate of change in employment, though the rate of change remained positive while previous recessions saw a negative YOY rate. Coinciding with a decrease in employment trends was a decrease in personal incomes with a greater contraction in personal income YOY rates during the previous two recessions than in the previous two mid-cycle slow downs.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

64. Sea Change, the Wealth of the World is Rotating

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/andros021307.html
09 February 2007 by Ty Andros

This is one of the most shocking charts (courtesy of the NY times) I can ever recall seeing, it is one that spells eventual doom for one group of Global Sovereign market participants, and boom for another! This is the shifting sand's of Globalization and wealth. This is as they say in business the "bottom line." This is a major shift of Wealth from the developed economies of the world to the emerging world. The developed countries of the world are in position for a real catastrophe, and the emerging markets are emerging at a far greater rate then previously believed. Interest spreads between the two are at historic lows and now we can see why, they have MONEY in the bank, if a hiccup comes in the global economy they are prepared to service their creditors. Their debts are at historical lows, and their savings at historic highs. The developed nations conversely are extremely vulnerable to a liquidity crisis, as they are in the opposite position of debts at historic highs and savings and investment at historic lows. It is clear why the G8 is creating liquidity as quickly as possible; debt is very, very deflationary.



Now lets look below at the balance sheet of the top emerging nations courtesy of the financial times, that as a percentage of GDP, debt is half the levels of the developed world, where onbalance sheet obligations run from 60 to 150% of GDP. These figures do not include future pension obligations and in the case of the United States does not include off balance sheet borrowing of the Surpluses from the Social Security trust funds. In 1992 these emerging group ran a cumulative deficit of 547 billion dollars, but by 2005 ran a surplus of $248 billion, in 2006 and 2007 these surpluses only grew. A good example is Nigeria, which is a turbulent nation, but it has virtually wiped out its foreign debt obligations. And as you can see the other emerging economies have retired mountains of foreign debt obligations as well. Considerably reducing their potential of economic instability from external borrowing. And they have Trillions of dollars, and yen and Euros of savings in the bank.

Who hold the CARDS? aka the creditors of the western world? China, Russia, India, The Middle East, Venezuela, Iran, etc. These countries are willing suppliers of goods, raw materials and services, but I don't see one of them as actual friends of the West. In fact, one could argue, that its payback time and the emperor (ie, Europe and America) has no clothes. As a example of the power shift look no further than Russia as it stares down western Europe with regularity. If these high saving, budget surplus emerging powerhouse nations ever quit or reduce their appetite for the developed country credit offerings or currencies, you can expect quite a plunge in bonds and considerably higher interest rates.

The credit requirements of the developed world just to keep up the outstanding obligations and current spending is astronomical. The external debt payments of the industrialized world to these emerging markets have more than doubled in the last three years. And at the rate the developed world are debasing their currencies, their credit offerings are bombs. It is one of the principle reasons asset markets are skyrocketing, a good portion the new money the emerging world are receiving is not going into these fixed income assets, they are now going into assets to protect themselves from the global money printing machines. And those same assets can just reprice as the currencies they are priced in debase.

When looking at the average growth rate in the developed world and then looking at the credit and money growth in those same countries we can also see that the developed world is creating almost 4 dollars of new credit obligations for every dollar of GDP growth. Borrow four to make one? Is not a recipe for sustainable growth!! Every dollar of debt must be paid for with future earnings. Those deficits and credit obligations are calls on future earnings. The anemic growth has to service growing mountains of debt in the developed world, and the roaring growth in the emerging markets services ever dwindling obligations! The seeds of growth are savings, they have it, and the developed world doesn't.

These are the seeds of Protectionism in the west. Politicians and their citizens in the west will recoil sooner or later as they become poorer and poorer, and their suppliers become wealthier and wealthier. The politicians in Washington keep encouraging reckless behavior such as Mortgage equity withdrawals and increased borrowing by consumers to just keep the party going. It is a recipe for reelection now and disaster later. A game of kick the can down the road.

The developed world is also not prepared to meet the challenge of Globalization in a number of other areas as well; the US has dumbed down their schools courtesy of the public schools and teachers unions who refuse to measure themselves against their global competitors. The United States has had a negative savings rate for the last two years, and so has none of the seed corn of capital formation. Go to www.youtube.com and watch man on the street interviews, on subjects ranging from Global warming, terrorism, geography, the constitution, and almost any subject you can imagine, the ignorance of the US population is frightening, just as the politicians wanted, so as to better manipulate the population.

But you better be careful what you wish for, as you might get it good and hard. The laws of unintended consequences are kicking in as because of the lack of savings, education and training the US is totally unprepared to meet the challenges of Globalization. Of course, France, Italy, Germany and much of central Europe fall into many of these categories as well, but at least their populations save money. But the man on the street is not informed, and mislead by a liberal media. Politicians can just pin the tail on the donkey of the foreign devils, not their lack of practical solutions to the problems, they prefer political ones implemented to pay back their campaign contributors, to the detriment of the constituents.

/plenty more...

"...mislead by a liberal media" Say again? :eyes:

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jan
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jan
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/10
Briefing Forecast 310K
Market Expects 315K
Prior 311K

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Feb
Briefing Forecast 10.0
Market Expects 11.0
Prior 9.1

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Dec
Market Expects $60.0B
Prior $68.4B

9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.4%

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan
Briefing Forecast 81.7%
Market Expects 81.7%
Prior 81.8%

12:00 PM Philadelphia Fed Feb
Briefing Forecast 2.0
Market Expects 4.0
Prior 8.3

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

28. 8:30 reports: (initial claims at 357,000!!!)

11. U.S. continuing jobless claims at 1-year high of 2.56mln
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

12. 'Small portion' of jobless claims increase due to weather
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

13. U.S. Jan imported capital goods prices fall 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

14. U.S. Jan. imported petroleum prices fall 7.3%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

15. U.S import prices up 0.1% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

16. U.S. Jan. export prices rise 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

17. U.S. Jan. import prices ex-fuels up 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

18. U.S. Jan. import prices fall 1.2% vs. -1.1% expected
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

19. U.S. 4-wk avg. jobless claims up 17,500 to 326,250
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

20. U.S. weekly jobless claims up 44,000 to 357,000
8:30 AM ET, Feb 15, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

[Ghost Dog]

30. Jobless Claims Increase to 17-Month High

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-02-15-08-36-08

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week by the largest amount in 17 months, reflecting in part an increase in layoffs due to frigid winter weather.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims rose to 357,000 last week, the highest level since late November. The increase of 44,000 claims from the previous week was the biggest one-week increase since Sept. 10, 2005, when claims soared in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast.

The four-week moving average for claims rose to 326,250 last week, the highest level in nine weeks and an indication that conditions in the job market have softened.

Part of the increase in jobless claims last week was due to a blast of frigid weather in the Midwest and Northeast, which triggered higher layoffs in such industries as construction.

Many analysts believe that the unemployment rate, which edged up from 4.5 percent to 4.6 percent in January, will keep rising to perhaps a peak of 5 percent later this year as the economy slows under the impact of previous credit-tightening by the Federal Reserve.

[Demeter]

41. Frigid Winter Weather--New Euphemism for Plunging Profits and Sales!

Pull the other one, willya? I don't want to be unfair and unbalanced!

[Ghost Dog]

31. New York factory activity rebounds sharply in Feb.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-york-factory-activity-rebounds/story.aspx?guid=%7BB75119A7%2DB575%2D4607%2D8D48%2DC6AB500FD7BF%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing activity in the New York area in February rebounded after two straight soft months, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.

The bank's Empire State general business conditions index rose to 24.4 in February from 9.1 in January. The index has slipped in December and January after peaking at 25 in November.

The increase was unexpected. Economists were forecasting the index to slip to 8.7, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

In February, new orders and shipments increased and unfilled orders moved out of negative territory.

The prices paid index moderated. The employment indexes increased.

In February, 41% of the businesses surveyed reported that conditions had improved, while 17% said conditions had deteriorated.

/...

[54anickel]

37. I don't know why, but while reading that article I had this vision of a

cheesecake factory. :shrug: Must be time for breakfast.

[Ghost Dog]

73. Philadelphia Area Manufacturing Stalls in February

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aumdkKU33uM0&refer=worldwide

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region stalled this month as orders declined and shipments weakened.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to 0.6 in February from 8.3 in January, the bank said today. A number greater than zero signals an expansion.

Industrial production in the U.S. fell by the most in more than a year last month as companies sought to hold down inventories of cars and construction supplies, the Fed reported earlier today. The Philadelphia Fed's report contrasts with a similar survey for New York released today showing that manufacturing accelerated more than forecast this month.

``Underlying manufacturing activity is probably broadly stagnant at the moment as the inventory adjustment nears its end,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. ``We expect to see factory output pick up steam in the months ahead.''

Economists expected the Philadelphia index to fall to 4.1, the median of 58 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 2.5 to 12.

Nationwide industrial production declined 0.5 percent last month, following a 0.5 percent December increase, a separate Fed report showed today.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about four-fifths of industrial production, fell 0.7 percent last month, the biggest decline since October, after rising 0.8 percent.

/...

[AnneD]

33. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Guess the benefits, like being carried on the payroll, have lapsed in the automotive industry. Wall Street, in their typical head up their ass attitude, will hail this as proof of American companies lean and mean management and stocks will go up :eyes:

I loved that cartoon. I was staying at the Washington Court Hotel where the Korean delegation was staying. It was the top floor of the casinos folks. People schmoozing with the high rollers. But outside there was a dedicated group of very nice protesters...mainly Korean with some Americans. They targeted anyone looking Korean-and that was many of the guests. The funniest part of the protest was when they were taking a break and they did an in line massage of the neck and shoulders of the protesters beside them....at that point, the police were ready to jump in the line with them. I admire them-they were out there the entire time. They kept reading what this bill do to their country and workers. They are just as upset as we are. Only the multinationals benefit from this. The rest of us are left with crumbs.

Well, I hope todays news doesn't upset those beautiful minds in DC- it may be a cold slash of reality on Wall Street.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

36. Foreigners Buy Least U.S. Assets Since January 2002 (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2vnNgfY6PyE&refer=home

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. attracted the least investment in its long-term assets in December in almost five years as foreigners sold stocks and Americans sent a record amount of money abroad.

Total purchases of equities, notes and bonds dropped to a net $15.6 billion, from a revised $84.9 billion in November, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. Including short- term securities, such as Treasury bills and so-called non-market transactions such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $11 billion.

The figures, which fell short of economists' forecasts, may prompt the dollar to extend its decline. U.S. residents accelerated their purchases of foreign assets as growth abroad picked up pace. Germany's economy grew at the fastest pace in six years in 2006 and Japan is recording its longest expansion since World War II.

``More and more U.S. investors are starting to invest abroad,'' Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said before the report.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices flat in Asia

SINGAPORE - Oil prices were flat in Asian trading Thursday after dropping more than 1.8 percent in the previous session on data that showed a less-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories for distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel oil.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery inched up 1 cent to $58.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange midmorning in Singapore.

Brent crude contract for March delivery fell 1 cent to $57.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

The contract on Wednesday tumbled $1.06 to settle at $58.00 a barrel after the U.S.
Department of Energy reported that distillate fuel stocks fell by 3 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected supplies to fall by 4.3 million barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Ghost Dog]

19. (UK) Court ruling deals blow to nuclear plans

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/76c6d25c-bce5-11db-90ae-0000779e2340.html

The UK government's nuclear energy strategy was thrown into disarray on Thursday morning when environmental campaign group Greenpeace won a legal victory in London's High Court. A judge ruled that the government's consultation process during a review of energy policy last year had been "very seriously flawed" and "procedurally unfair". Mr Justice Sullivan said that, as a result, Greenpeace's application for a quashing order should succeed.

The judgment, given in oral rather than written form because of the urgency, comes just weeks ahead of a planned government energy white paper in March, which had been expected to give the go-ahead to new nuclear plants.

Buoyed by the government's indications last July that a new generation of nuclear power stations should be built and run by the private sector, nuclear companies have already been positioning themselves for the contract work which they expect to result. Last July, in the wake of the energy policy review, Alistair Darling, trade and industry secretary, told parliament that nuclear power had to be part of Britain's energy supply over the next 40 years to avoid over-reliance on imported gas and to meet ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions.

Nuclear power currently provides about 19 per cent of the country's electricity supply, but its share is due to fall to 7 per cent in the next two decades as old plants are decommissioned.

In a judicial review challenge heard earlier this month in the High Court, lawyers for Greenpeace argued that the consultation process leading up to that indicative green light given for new nuclear plants was seriously flawed. Mr Justice Sullivan agreed, finding that information on two critical issues – the economics of new nuclear building and the disposal of waste – had been inadequate during the consultation period, and that information of any substance only emerged after this had concluded.

...

The judge’s decision is a blow to Tony Blair, the prime minister, who had wanted to implement reforms paving the way for a new generation of plants, replacing reactors that are due to be decommissioned, before he left office later this year.

The DTI said in a statement: “This judgement is about the process of consultation, not the principle of nuclear power. We will of course consult further.” It added that the government would “press on” with the publication of the white paper, but gave no details of timing.

“Over the next two decades the UK is likely to need around 25 gigawatts of new electricity generation capacity. We need as much os this as possible to be low carbon. Everyone involved in this debate needs to answer how we do that. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away. A balanced approach is needed - a greater role for renewables and other lower carbon sources allied to a strong focus on energy efficiency is we believe the right one,” the statement said.

Greenpeace said ministers should “go back to the drawing board”.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

22. OPEC keeps 2007 oil demand growth forecast broadly unchanged

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=ea160f9a-5240-49c0-9020-48a9295f0c39

LONDON (AFX) - OPEC kept its oil demand growth forecast broadly unchanged for this year, but warned if warmer weather returns over the coming weeks, it might have to reduce its demand forecast going forward.

OPEC said while it sees 2007 oil demand growth at 1.2 mln bpd or 1.5 pct - broadly unchanged from its prior 1.25 mln bpd forecast - it has revised down its first-quarter demand growth forecast for OECD countries by 0.1 mln bpd. It added should warm weather return to the northern hemisphere over the next couple of weeks, it may have to reduce its forecast for world oil demand growth by a further 0.2 mln bpd. "Consequently, the revised figure for total world oil demand growth may only reach 1 mln bpd," said OPEC. It added this would be the case despite healthy growth in China and improved growth in the Middle East.

The cartel also kept its 2006 demand growth estimate unchanged at 0.8 mln bpd or 1 pct. However, it revised down its estimate for non-OPEC supply last year by 78,000 bpd to 49.5 mln bpd.

For 2007, the cartel sees non-OPEC supply averaging 50.7 mln bpd, an increase of 1.2 mln bpd over the previous year but a downward revision of 173,000 bpd from the prior forecast. "The revisions are principally due to lower expectations for Mexico, Canada, USA and Kazakhstan," said the cartel.

It added while the weather remains the 'wild card' for oil demand this year, the weaker-than-expected performance in non-OPEC supply could offset the forecast decline in demand.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

56. EU agrees to 10 percent bio-fuel quota for new vehicles by 2020

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070215/afp/070215133749eco.html

BRUSSELS (AFP) - The 27 EU member states have reached a conditional agreement that bio-fuels should constitute at least 10 percent of fuels used in new vehicles by 2020.

EU energy ministers agreed that the 10 percent minimum target "be achieved by all member states for the share of biofuels in overall EU transport petrol and diesel consumption by 2020 to be introduced in a cost-efficient way."

They said the 10 percent target was binding but subject to bio-fuels being available in sufficient quantities for commercial use, and for the necessary legal changes to be made.

...

The ministers, who held talks in Brussels, also agreed to increase the use of renewable energy to 20 percent of the EU's total energy consumption by 2020. The current level is just seven percent.

This second objective is non-binding, a fact which will disappoint the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, which first proposed the measures in a wide-ranging policy paper last month aimed at moving the bloc towards a common energy policy.

/..

[54anickel]

60. Oil Prices Sink

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/oil_prices.html?.v=14

Thursday February 15, 11:30 am ET
Oil Prices Tumble, Extending Decline of Previous Session


NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices fell further Thursday, extending their decline of a day earlier when the government reported a weaker-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories of distillate fuel.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid $1.24 to $56.76 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract shed $1.06 a barrel on Wednesday to settle at $58 after the Energy Information Administration reported that distillate fuel stocks -- which include diesel fuel and heating oil -- fell by 3 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a bigger pull of 4.3 million barrels.

The inventory data "was a disappointment," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA. "It's not surprising that the downward momentum continues from Monday."

But for a brief bounce on Tuesday, oil prices have been on the decline all week.

The government's inventory report on Wednesday showed a drop in both crude oil and gasoline stockpiles, surprising analysts who, on average, expected to see increases in inventories of both. Most of last week's decline in distillate stocks came from the drop in heating oil inventories, as a cold snap in the Northeast boosted heating demand.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Chrysler to cut 13,000 jobs, faces possible sale

DETROIT/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE) said on Wednesday it would cut 13,000 jobs at its Chrysler operation in North America and indicated it could sell or spin off the money-losing unit, which would unwind a troubled 9-year-old merger between Chrysler and Mercedes.

The world's No. 5 automaker said it would shut two Chrysler plants as part of a strategy to make the business profitable by 2008 as it focuses more on building fuel-efficient cars, a sector of the market dominated by its Japanese rivals.

The automaker will also cut North American production capacity by 400,000 units through 2009.

The announcement -- the biggest shake-up of the group since Germany's Daimler-Benz AG and Chrysler Corp joined forces in 1998 -- sent DaimlerChrysler's share price surging to its highest point in more than four years.

more

[Ghost Dog]

13. Toyota surges as European car sales rise in Jan

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH04073_2007-02-15_08-49-45_L15548633&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

FRANKFURT, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Japan's Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) boosted European car sales by more than a fifth in January, overtaking DaimlerChrysler and helping the overall market edge up 1.1 percent, industry data showed on Thursday. Fiat (FIA.MI: Quote, Profile , Research) also extended its winning ways with a 5.2 percent gain in new car registrations, while Japan's Nissan Motor (7201.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) and its French partner Renault (RENA.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) saw sales continue to decline.

Overall new car registrations climbed to 1.29 million units in January despite a 10.5 percent drop in Germany -- normally the continent's largest car market -- after a three-point hike in German value-added tax rates at the start of the year. Gains in Italy, Britain, France and Spain helped take up the slack, as did a sharp upturn in central Europe, Brussels-based carmakers group ACEA said. "While the EU15 market stagnated (+0.1 percent), new EU member states' registrations surged by 16.6 percent," it pointed out, adding that calendar quirks had flattered sales in some markets by adding an extra working day.

...

Toyota group registrations advanced 20.5 percent to 82,404 units, paced by 20.5 percent growth at the Toyota brand but with premium arm Lexus not far behind at 19.8 percent. Including Russia and Turkey, European sales of its Yaris small car leaped by more than a third in January, while its RAV4 compact sport utility vehicle boosted sales 174 percent, a company spokesman said.

Toyota monthly sales pulled ahead of DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research), whose registrations fell 2.3 percent year on year. A 2.3 percent gain in Mercedes-Benz brand registrations could not offset a drop of nearly half in Smart brand sales ahead of the launch of its second-generation two-seat car.

DaimlerChrysler shares nevertheless rocketed up more than 5 percent to their highest level since May 2002 on Wednesday's news that it was reviewing all options for its loss-making Chrysler division that could lead to a sale or spinoff. The stock was up 5.1 percent at 54.13 euros by 0833 GMT while the DJ Stoxx European car sector index <.SXAP> gained 2.2 percent. Daimler is the heaviest-weighted stock in the index, which itself is nearing a 10-year high.

...

U.S. carmakers had a good month. Ford Motor (F.N: Quote, Profile , Research) group registrations grew at twice the market rate, helped primarily by its premium brand Volvo, which swelled 23 percent. Ford brand sales edged down, while Jaguar and Land Rover slumped. Brisk demand for Opels and Vauxhalls plus double-digit growth for the entry-level Chevrolet brand helped General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) registrations move up 7.6 percent despite weaker Saab sales.

Market leader Volkswagen's (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) strong run in 2006 ran out of steam. Its group registrations slipped 3.8 percent in January, led lower by a 9 percent fall at the Volkswagen brand. Skoda registrations gained 14 percent.

Renault's market share retreated to 8.0 percent from 8.7 percent a year ago as registrations fell 7.5 percent. That put it behind Fiat, whose share moved up to 8.7 percent thanks to new models and a strong month in its home market of Italy. Nissan registrations dropped 11.5 percent, taking its share below 2 percent ahead of a new model offensive.

South Korean manufacturers had a mixed month, with Hyundai (005380.KS: Quote, Profile , Research) registrations up 2.8 percent but Kia (000270.KS: Quote, Profile , Research) down 7.3 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

46. Chrysler spinoff seen as likely option - analysts

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH15010_2007-02-15_15-27-21_L15501917&type=comktNews&rpc=44

FRANKFURT, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Spinning off Chrysler on the stock market may be easier and faster than finding someone to buy the loss-making North American arm of DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research), analysts said on Thursday.

Indian or Chinese carmakers eager to expand into the world's biggest car market might find Chrysler an attractive opportunity, and a handful of European carmakers could use some of its spare capacity.

But Chrysler's unionised workforce, unfunded health and pension liabilities, and hefty losses will make investors think twice about taking on any financial exposure, they said.

...

In a research note, Dresdner said separating Chrysler from its German parent seemed possible because the official German document for reporting the legal obligations of DaimlerChrysler AG makes no mention of Chrysler's healthcare liabilities.

"The absence of Chrysler's 15.8 billion euros in unfunded healthcare obligations would thus not weigh on Daimler post a de-merger. We believe the remaining 2.6 billion pension obligations would not hinder a de-merger decision," it added.

/...

[ozymandius]

5. Ex-Enron officials get probation after cooperating (justice not served)

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A U.S. judge sentenced two former Enron energy traders involved in the scheme to manipulate California energy prices to two years' probation and a $10,000 fine each on Wednesday after they cooperated with authorities in the case.

Former Enron executive Jeffrey Richter pleaded guilty in February 2003 to conspiracy to commit wire fraud in connection with Enron's power trading schemes in California. Timothy Belden, Enron's former top West Coast energy trader, made a similar plea in October 2002.

a little more

[UpInArms]

20. 2 Enron Traders Avoid Prison in Sentences

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/15enron.html?ex=1329195600&en=0f87ecd2816557ed&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A third trader is expected to be sentenced next month for his role in the scheme, which fraudulently sent California energy prices soaring, causing energy shortages and rolling blackouts.

Internal company records describe how Mr. Belden’s trading unit took power out of California at a time of rolling blackouts and shortages and sold it out of state to elude price caps, according to documents obtained by investigators.

Enron bought California power at cheap capped prices, routed it outside the state, then sold it back into California at inflated prices, authorities said. The sham trades were designed to circumvent California’s caps on wholesale energy.

The crisis played a role in Pacific Gas & Electric’s bankruptcy and will leave California consumers paying abnormally high electricity prices for years.

[Ghost Dog]

6. Japan's economy grows at annual 4.8% in October-December qtr

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070214/kyodo/d8n9q3kg0.html

(Kyodo) Japan's economy grew at an annualized 4.8 percent in real terms in the October-December period of 2006, the government said Thursday.

The growth corresponds to a 1.2 percent expansion in gross domestic product from the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report.

The growth rate figures were higher than the average market forecast of an annualized 3.8 percent rise or a 0.9 percent quarterly increase.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

7. Japan's economy grows 1.2 percent in December quarter

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070215/afp/070215003842business.html

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's economy grew by an unexpectedly strong 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, or an annualised pace of 4.8 percent, helped by gains in consumer spending, the government said.

The fast clip marked a significant improvement on the three months to September, when the world's second-largest economy had expanded by a tepid 0.1 percent from the previous quarter, according to the latest estimates.

The data lent support to the Bank of Japan's case for a rise in its super-low interest rates from 0.25 percent, although market views are divided on whether the central bank will make a quick move at its meeting next week.

Market forecasts had been for Japan's gross domestic product to grew by 0.9 percent in the quarter to December, or at an annualised pace of 3.8 percent.

Helping to drive the sharp pick-up in growth, private consumption grew by 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 from the previous three months, reversing the 1.1 percent loss seen in the third quarter. Consumer spending makes up about 55 percent of Japan's gross domestic product but has struggled to keep pace with the wider economic recovery here.

Brisk spending by companies on new plants and equipment also contributed to faster economic growth. Non-residential investment, which is nearly equal to corporate capital spending, rose by 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from the previous term's 0.8 percent expansion.

For 2006 as a whole, Asia's largest economy expanded by 2.2 percent, picking up steam after growth of 1.9 percent in 2005, the Cabinet Office said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Keen interest in Japan’s fourth-quarter figures

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1be9fc96-bc9b-11db-9cbc-0000779e2340.html

For an economy supposedly in its longest period of post-war expansion, an awful lot of attention is being paid to Thursday’s announcement of Japanese fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Interest is high because, in spite of five years of continuous growth, Japan’s economy has not yet pulled decisively away from a decade of falling prices and anaemic growth. That was underlined by a particularly bleak third quarter which showed the economy limping along at an annualised 0.8 per cent. Domestic consumption, the recovery’s missing link, shrank an alarming 3.7 per cent, provoking much tortured discussion about the impact of the weather.

...

First, economists want to discover how sharp a rebound the economy has made. Their predictions range from an annualised 3-4 per cent, although the third quarter could be revised up, reducing the size of the bounce-back. More fundamentally, observers want to take the temperature of an economy that is still not entirely back to health. Many people, including officials at the Bank of Japan, have focused on the disappointing pace at which record profits have fed through into higher wages and stronger consumption.

...

The second reason for poring over tomorrow’s GDP release is to discover how dependent Japan is on a weak yen. Put another way, when will domestic consumption finally take up the slack as an economic engine?

The weak yen has become the focus of criticism from European and US manufacturers. Some politicians tried, but largely failed, to bring the topic into formal talks at last week’s meeting of G7 finance ministers. The yen is at 20-year lows in real terms and has undoubtedly helped exporters. In the third quarter, the contribution of net exports to growth was 1.7 per cent. In other words, without net exports, the economy would have shrunk by 0.9 per cent. Macquarie calculates that yen weakness over the past year is worth roughly a half point cut in interest rates.

Exports are expected to make a similar contribution to fourth-quarter numbers. The difference is that consumption should have rebounded. But economists say even a fairly hefty bounce, say of an annualised 4 per cent, would not indicate consumption was robust. Rather it would mean consumption in the second half of last year was flat – hardly the cue for a song. Focus on consumption is important not only for one’s assessment of the state of Japan’s real economy. It is also pivotal to the central bank’s interest rate policy. The bank’s main scenario for economic progress calls for profits being transmitted via wages to consumption.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

9. Japan's economy to continue posting sustained growth: Ota

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070215/kyodo/d8n9rjfg0.html

(Kyodo) Economic and fiscal policy minister Hiroko Ota said Thursday Japan's economy will continue posting sustained growth though personal consumption remains sluggish.

At a news conference after the release of October-December gross domestic product data, Ota said the government wants the Bank of Japan to support the economy from the monetary side.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

11. Strong GDP boosts Tokyo stocks and yen

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3b673a8e-bca0-11db-9cbc-0000779e2340.html

The Japanese government’s release of economic growth numbers for the October-December quarter sparked an explosive day of trading in equities and currencies.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average continued bounding towards a seven-year high, rising 144.59 points, or 0.81 per cent, to hit 17,897.23, a mark last reached in May 2000. Strong buying of the yen prompted the Japanese currency to surge against both the dollar and the euro.

In early morning trading, the yen ticked up 0.9 per cent against the greenback, rising from the 120.75 level to 119.80 in the space of about an hour’s trading. The yen slipped back to the 120.10 level over the course of a calmer afternoon. The yen gained 0.63 per cent for the day against the euro, reaching 157.70. Tokyo dealing rooms expect strong yen-buying when European traders absorb the Japanese GDP numbers.

...

Traders said that the figures would likely be used by the Bank of Japan to justify an interest rate hike at its next monetary policy meeting.

In equity trading, the GDP figures were taken as hard evidence that the recovery of the Japanese economy now includes a strong element of domestic growth. Where in previous sessions buying action had focused on big exporters such as Sony and Canon, attention shifted Thursday to Japan’s blue-chip retailers. That drove the broad Topix Index 0.65 per cent higher to end the day at 1,776.71.

Department stores led the Nikkei’s gainers in the morning and afternoon sessions, with Takashimaya jumping 10.03 per cent to Y1,690, Marui rising 7.28 per cent to Y1,533 and Mitsukoshi surging Y42 yen, or 7.75 per cent, to Y584.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

15. GLOBAL ECONOMY-Japan GDP surges, Europe's shines, U.S. simmers

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH08121_2007-02-15_11-46-18_L15704357&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2

PARIS, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Japan led the large industrialised economies with 1.2 percent growth in the final quarter of 2006 and Europe was hot on its heels while the U.S. economy seemingly settled back into a less inflationary stride.

After reassuring words from U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke, Tokyo published a report showing a major rebound that lifted the yen, sent Japanese shares to new highs and set markets alight with talk of an imminent interest rate rise. For Europe, the yen rise, though nothing stunning, offered the prospect of relief for exporters struggling for years with Japanese firms helped by a weak currency -- an issue raised by the Europeans at talks among the G7 powers last weekend. But one potential problem replaced another as the euro rose versus the dollar in the wake of a Senate hearing where Bernanke said he expected a moderate U.S. economic expansion in 2007 and 2008, and that the inflation danger may be receding.

...

That drove U.S. stocks and bonds up but the dollar down as markets took the words to mean U.S. official interest rates, far higher than in Europe and Japan, might be cut later in the year.

...

The basic economic picture compounded by Japan's GDP release was the one the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have been predicting -- a "rabalancing" of global growth where Japan and Europe do more. "Outside the United States, economic activity in our major trading partners has continued to grow briskly," Bernanke said. "The strength of demand abroad helped spur a robust expansion in U.S. real exports, which grew about 9 percent last year."

Japan's 1.2 percent rise in fourth-quarter gross domestic product was due in part to a recovery in personal consumption and beat forecasts for a rise of about 0.9 percent quarter-on- quarter in the last three months of 2006.

...

Euro zone GDP rose 0.9 percent in the same period, led by Germany and helped by a major rebound in Italy, and U.S. GDP rose by roughly the same amount, according to the latest U.S. Commerce Department estimates, issued at the end of January.

..

A Reuters poll of 49 traders and analysts in Tokyo's foreign exchange and bond markets after the GDP data showed 24 expected the BOJ to raise rates to 0.50 from 0.25 percent at a policy meeting next week, while five expected a rate rise in March.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

16. European stocks drift lower amid mixed earnings

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-02-15T112932Z_01_L15210970_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2

LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - European stocks drifted lower by midday on Thursday as investors ploughed through a pile of mixed earnings reports that raised doubts about whether corporate profits would continue to grow apace this year. At 1105 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares was down 0.2 percent at 1,544.65 points, down from a six-year high of 1,550.19 touched earlier in the session.

Norwegian telecoms group Telenor (TEL.OL: Quote, Profile , Research) led losers with a 7-percent decline after results disappointed, though it forecast strong growth this year. Belgian drug and chemical maker Solvay (SOLBt.BR: Quote, Profile , Research) fell more than 4 percent, hurt by a decline in pharmaceutical earnings. Dutch peer Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS: Quote, Profile , Research) lost 2.4 percent as it missed forecasts, and Swiss engineering group ABB (ABBN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) slipped 3.4 percent.

Analysts said the rapid growth in profits of the past few years was proving difficult to replicate. "We've seen rapid earnings growth that can't be sustained indefinitely," said Brewin Dolphin chief strategist Mike Lenhoff. "Now we're seeing the transition from that kind of growth to more sustainable levels, and people are having to lower their sights." But Lenhoff added that markets would be forgiving as long as the Fed kept rates on hold. "European shares are plugged into what the U.S. Federal Reserve does, and Chairman Bernanke's comments yesterday were quite upbeat on growth and inflation," he said.

...

Among major national indexes, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE was down 0.17 percent, France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> was down 0.04 percent, and Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> was flat.

...

Strong results, and the appointment of a new chief executive, boosted shares in Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) by more than 3 percent. But there were losers elsewhere in the banking and financial sector. French bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) slid 3.3 percent after its results highlighted concerns over the performance of its retail banking arm. Rival Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) also disappointed. Dutch financial services group ING (ING.AS: Quote, Profile , Research) dipped 0.8 percent as a weak performance in its banking division took the shine off strong insurance.

A clutch of upgrades lifted DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's fifth-largest carmaker, by 5.3 percent, as investors continued to warm to Wednesday's news that it was weighing options for its loss-making Chrysler unit that could lead to a sale or spin-off. "We believe the key short-term share price driver is the sustained possibility that CEO Dieter Zetsche will sanction a divorce from Chrysler," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

26. ECB says Germany has gained competitiveness since EMU; Spain has lost ground

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=9f9eb566-1968-4a39-8a99-d133da05e48b

FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said Germany has gained competitiveness since the launch of the euro, but Spain and Ireland have become significantly less competitive.

The ECB has calculated a set of harmonised competitiveness indicators for euro zone countries, taking account of national inflation rates and economies' sensitivity to exchange rate moves.

The competitiveness indicator for Germany improved by 2.7 pct between the first quarter of 1999 and the final quarter of last year, the ECB said in its February monthly bulletin. Finland's indicator also improved 2.7 pct, while the Austrian indicator improved 2.0 pct.

But indicators for all other euro zone countries deteriorated.

The indicator for Ireland worsened 17.0 pct and that for Spain 11.2 pct.
The ECB said persistent inflation differentials appear to have played a major part in changes in competitiveness.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

27. UK retail sales drop sharply

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php/news/reuters/2007/02/15/business/uk-retail-sales-drop-sharply.html&template=/business/feeds/story_template.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Plunging clothing and furniture purchases pushed British retail sales down at their sharpest rate in four years in January, but economists said another interest rate hike was still on the cards.

Sales volumes fell 1.8 percent last month, confounding forecasts for a 0.1 percent gain and more than reversing December’s 1.1 percent surge, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.

The decline came even though prices were on average 0.4 percent lower than a year ago, the heaviest discounting by retailers since July last year.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

61. Europe closes lower as French banks weigh

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39128.4894560185-889592415&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European equity markets were lower on Thursday as losses for French banks followed results from BNP Paribas, offsetting gains for fashion and luxury goods groups and carmakers. Banks eased following concerns over the French retail banking division of BNP Paribas. The bank beat forecasts with its fourth-quarter net profit, although operating profit was a little softer than expected due to unforseen costs related to its takeover of Italy’s BNL last year. BNP Paribas fell 3.8 per cent to €83.70. Société Générale, which fell in the previous session as similar concerns were raised after it reported full-year results, was down a further 1.7 per cent to €135. Credit Agricole shed 2.6 per cent to €32.25. Swiss bank Credit Suisse however, gained 3.5 per cent to SFr91.80 after reporting record fourth-quarter profits that easily beat market forecasts, thanks to a 130 per cent rise in trading revenues. By the close, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.2 per cent to 1,545.62, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was flat at 6,958.62, the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.1 per cent to 5,720.88 and London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.2 per cent to 6,433.3.

[Ghost Dog]

62. FTSE holds around six-year highs

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39128.4909143519-889592669&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

London equities stayed around six-year highs on Thursday, with a strong newsflow lifting Diageo and Reed Elsevier, but fading bid talk around Wolseley led to losses for the stock. Shares in Reed, the Anglo-Dutch publishing company, were 6.6 per cent higher at 644.5p after it reported a 7 per cent rise in adjusted earnings per share and confirmed plans to sell its Harcourt US educational operations. Diageo was 2.4 per cent higher at 1045.5p after the brewer of Guinness and Smirnoff vodka lifted full-year profit guidance as it reported interim results in line with forecasts. The company said its sales of premium whiskies in the US were strong, helping its spirits operations increase net sales by 8 per cent. On the downside, shares in Wolseley fell 2.3 per cent to 1376p after reports of bid interest in the plumbing and heating goods supplier faded. Traders said the rumours sparked a wave of short-covering in the stock. The FTSE 100 closed higher by 0.2 per cent at 6,433.3, with the mid-cap FTSE 250 up 0.3 per cent at 11,574.6.

[Ghost Dog]

24. Singapore Budget Addresses Widening Income Gap, Forecasts Robust Economic Growth For 2007

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20070215\ACQRTT200702150750RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0451.htm
&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD
&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

(RTTNews) - Singapore's economy is poised for another year of positive growth in 2007 on the strength of a strong and diverse investment pipeline and record-high tourism arrivals, expected to support the government's upgraded growth forecast of 4.5% to 6.5% for 2007. Singapore saw over S$13 billion of overseas investments last year and a record high 9.7 million visitors to Singapore boosted the retail, hotels, and food and beverage sectors.

Singapore's Second Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam unveiled his country's national budget for 2007-08 Thursday that seeks to address the growing problem of income disparity while slashing corporate tax rate, raising sales taxes and offering cash handouts to citizens.

In a move to enhance the city-state's competitiveness, the government will lower the corporate tax rate by 2 percentage points from 20% to 18%, Shanmugaratnam said, which narrows the gap between the Southeast Asian city-state and rival Hong Kong's 17.5%. The move would cost the government S$800 million a year and will be effective from the 2008 tax assessment year. However the government would raise additional revenue of S$1.5 billion a year by increasing taxes on goods and services by 2 percentage points to 7% from July 1, Shanmugaratnam said. Part of it will be used to fund welfare programs, he said.

...

On the employment front, robust growth resulted in jobs galore for Singaporeans - with nearly 180,000 new jobs created in all industries and average wages rising by 3.2%. More than half of these new jobs were taken up by Singaporeans.

Shanmugaratnam forecast a positive outlook for the city-state in 2007 but warned that a possible US economic slowdown or major upheaval in global markets arising out of political turmoil or bird-flu posed external risks to the trade-dependent S$210 billion. Singapore had raised its 2007 growth target to a range of 4.5% to 6.5% from a previous forecast of 4%-6% which is slower than the 7.9% growth recorded last year. The lower forecast is largely due to a projected slowdown in global demand for electronics, Singapore's main export.

Shanmugaratnam singled out tackling income disparity as one of Singapore's most pressing challenges that has been widening in recent years as more low-skilled jobs are made redundant by technological upgradations or moved to countries with cheaper labor. "Globalization brings with it challenges for Singapore. We face a worsening of our income distribution and slow or no growth at the lower end. Not just over the last few years or now, but this will be with us for several years to come," Shanmugaratnam said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

25. Singapore strong in mixed year for Asian market

http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2007/February/15e.asp

Singapore experienced the highest residential property price rises in Asia during 2006, reports the Global Property Guide...

Singapore experienced the highest residential property price rises in Asia during 2006, with 9.5% real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises, reports the Global Property Guide.

Other winners in Asia's property market were South Korea and the Philippines which experienced 9.3% and 9.1% real house price increases respectively. The data was drawn from the Global Property Guide House Price Indices, the biggest collection of residential property price indices.

Singapore’s strong 2006 GDP growth rate, at 7.9%, pushed up demand for Singapore property. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index rose by 10% (9.5% in real terms) in 2006.

South Korea also saw a strong rebound in property prices, despite continued efforts by the government to depress the market. The Kookmin Bank’s house price index rose 11.6% in Dec. 2006 (9.3% in real terms) from a year earlier.

In the Philippines, strong economic growth and reduced inflation contributed to the continued recovery of the real estate sector. In addition, demand from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and dual citizens has been strong, pushing prices up. Luxury condominium prices in the Philippines rose 15% (9% in real terms) in 2006, following an 11% nominal price rise in 2005, according to Colliers International.

Japan and Hong Kong are laggards

Japan’s residential property market continued to fall in 2006, despite repeated attempts by the media to portray the market as rallying, reports the Global Property Guide. Nevertheless, the residential urban land price index registered a smaller fall in 2006 (-2.8%) compared to last year (-4.7%).

Hong Kong’s property market turned negative (-2.13%) in 2006, after impressive gains in 2004 (27%) and 2005 (8%). Higher interest rates in the US, mirrored directly in Hong Kong, were a major cause of the downturn.

Taiwan’s messy political crisis seems to have frozen residential prices, with 0% appreciation during 2006. In real terms, Taiwan experienced a decline in house prices during 2006 (-1.7%). During three years prior to the second quarter of 2006, Taiwan’s Sinyi house price index rose 17%.

In Malaysia, house prices did not to keep pace with inflation. Malaysian house prices today are at the same level as 1995, in real terms.

Thailand saw the end of its strong post-Asian crisis property market recovery, as the political crisis impacted the economy. House prices moved up just 1.9% in 2006 (-2.4% in real terms), after 2005’s price increase of 7% (1.5% in real terms), and 2004’s rise of 9% (6% in real terms).

Indonesia managed to reduce 4Q 2006 inflation to 6% from 16% during the first three quarters. With the house price index registering a 6.6% increase in 2006; house prices rose by 0.5% in real terms.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

83. India: No overheating of economy: Kamal Nath

http://www.hindu.com/2007/02/16/stories/2007021605591200.htm

NEW DELHI: The Government would attempt to ease supply side pressures that were leading to inflation through a more liberal import and fiscal regime. "Prices are rising because supply has not kept pace with demand in a rapidly growing economy. We are trying to see where these supply gaps are coming from. If the need arises, imports will be made more flexible," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said here on Thursday.

Though he accepted that inflation had gone beyond expectations, Mr. Nath did not agree that the higher rate recorded in recent times indicated overheating of the economy. The cuts in prices of diesel and petrol were the latest tools to reduce the inflation rate. They were preceded by a ban on wheat and milk export and freer import of maize.

Asking the manufacturers to keep prices under control, Mr. Nath said the Industry Ministry had identified cement, metals and paper as some of the products that were behind the rise of inflation. Some steps were taken in the case of cement and the Government was considering further easing of import of ferrous and non-ferrous metals.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

84. India's Economy Races Forward Despite Inflation Concerns

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-02-15-voa43.cfm
By Anjana Pasricha New Delhi 15 February 2007

Pasricha report - Download 468k audio clip Listen to Pasricha report audio clip

As India's economy grows at a scorching pace, high inflation and rising food prices are beginning to hurt the poor. Anjana Pasricha reports from New Delhi, the government says it is taking steps to moderate prices.

Durgawati earns $50 a month working as a part-time cleaning maid in Gurgaon, a posh area on Delhi's outskirts. A recent $5 raise in her salary means little to her.

Durgawati says despite the salary increase, she has had to cut down on the food she buys for her family, because prices of everything from lentils and grains to vegetables and milk have risen hugely in the last year.

Office workers walk near the Mumbai Stock Exchange building, in Mumbai (file photo)
Office workers walk near Mumbai Stock Exchange building (file photo)
India's booming economy has raised the standard of living for the 300 million-strong middle class. But the vast proportion of the country's poor are grappling with the inflation that has accompanied the boom. Inflation currently stands at more than 6.5 percent - its highest level in two years.

Property prices in some cities have more than doubled and apartment rentals are up by more than 50 percent in the last two years. The stock markets have risen more than fourfold over the past four years. Prices of steel and cement are at all-time highs.

The rising prices are causing concern that the economy may be overheating. For millions of poor people like Durgawati, a recent government forecast that the economy will grow at more than nine percent for the second year in a row has little meaning.

Inflation has begun to hit the headlines, however, and the government has gathered its top economic advisors to deal with the problem. It says lowering prices is a "key short-term priority."

Import duties on items such as cement and edible oils have been cut. The central bank has raised interest rates to curb a wave of buying on credit. There is also a proposal to lower fuel prices, which are partly blamed for stoking inflation. Economists are looking for these measures to have an impact over the next several months.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

85. US Lawmakers Seek to Crack Down on Foreign Sweatshops

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-02-14-voa85.cfm

U.S. lawmakers are considering legislation that would bar U.S. companies from profiting from the use of foreign sweatshops and other unfair labor practices abroad. A Senate panel conducted a hearing on the issue Wednesday, as VOA's Deborah Tate reports from Capitol Hill.

Members of a Senate subcommittee heard first hand from those who witnessed abuses at overseas factories that produce goods for U.S. companies.

Sk Nazma is a former textile worker in Bangladesh, who - along with the labor rights group, Bangladesh Workers' Solidarity Center - has been investigating the labor practices of a company called Harvest Rich in that country, where clothing is sewn for the U.S. firms, Walmart, Haynes, and J.C. Penney.

When she began the research in June, she discovered that hundreds of children, some as young as 11 years old, were illegally working at Harvest Rich, sometimes for up to 20 hours a day.

"Before clothing shipments had to leave for the United States, there are often mandatory 19 to 20-hour shifts from 8:00 a.m. to 3:00 or 4:00 a.m," she said. "The workers would sleep on the factory floor for a few hours before getting up for their next shift in the morning. If they did anything wrong, they were beaten every day."

She said the workers were often on the job seven days a week, with only two days off a month. They were paid $3.20 a week.

Betty Fuentes, a worker in Colombia's flower industry, was employed at a plant owned by the U.S. company Dole. She talked about workers being exposed to hazardous pesticides, the firing of sick workers, forced pregnancy testing for women and strong-arm union busting tactics by companies. She also spoke through a translator.

"Workers in Colombia's flower industry are faced with low wages, long working hours and poor and illegal company practices," she noted.

Charles Kernaghan, executive director of the National Labor Committee, an advocacy group that focuses on worker rights, told the committee he is particularly concerned about labor practices in Jordan and China.

/more...

[ozymandius]

8. End of the affair for commodities

Institutional investors have fallen out of love with commodities in spite of growing optimism about global growth, according to a monthly survey of fund managers by Merrill Lynch.

Managers have become more negative about commodities after falls in oil and metals prices over the past six months, while growing more positive about equities.

-cut-

For the past two years, the fund managers polled by Merrill believed the global economy to be between its mid- and late-cycle stages, moving towards a period of slowing growth, lower liquidity and rising volatility and risk.

-cut-

With this has come fresh enthusiasm for equities. Ms Olney said other classes such as high-yield bonds and commodities were seen as overvalued, while perceptions of equity valuation improved last month.

more

[Ghost Dog]

49. Tin hits fresh high, copper seen in ranges

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH11049_2007-02-15_13-28-17_L15399588&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2

LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Tin hit a new high on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday and copper was seen trading in ranges ahead of holidays in China next week, analysts said.

...

Three-month copper <MCU3> was up 1.7 percent at $5,820 a tonne by midsession, versus $5,725 at Wednesday's close. Prices earlier touched $5,885, their highest since Jan. 25.

"There is a lot of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) interest in the markets at the moment," an LME floor trader said.

Tin <MSN3> was at $13,050 against $12,650, and just shortly after the official rings it hit a fresh high of $13,125. Fuelling prices were supply concerns in Indonesia, where most of PT Koba Tin's furnaces were shut down by police.

Copper stocks in LME warehouses stand at around 215,350 tonnes or over four days of world consumption, up 450 on Thursday. The inventory figures the market would be watching are deliveries in or out of Asia as a signal of Chinese imports in the pre-New Year holiday period, a Deutsche Bank report said.

...

"We forecast average copper prices of $5,000 in 2007 and $3,800 in 2008," analyst Andrew Keen at Bernstein Research said in a report.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange will be closed for the Lunar New Year holidays from Feb. 17 to 25 and will re-open on Feb. 26.

The value of Chile's copper exports soared 41.5 percent in January from the previous month despite copper prices falling by around 9 percent since the beginning of the year. This could suggest a significant increase in copper production from the world's largest producer.

LME aluminium <MAL3> was up $5 at $2,840/2,841. "If aluminium breaks through $2,900 it wouldn't take long before it hits $3,000, but it is a long way away," the floor trader said.

...

Nickel <MNI3>, which rose 4.4 percent on Wednesday was up $1,125 or 3 percent at $38,600. Total stocks, at 3,990 tonnes, have risen by a third over the past week or so, but over half of that is earmarked for delivery, leaving just 1,896 available.

Lead <MPB3> was at $1,727/1,730 against $1,680, underpinned by Xstrata's (XTA.L: Quote, Profile , Research) force majeure at its Northfleet smelter. It touched a session high of $1,740 earlier, nearing its contract high of $1,785 recorded on December 12.

Zinc <MZN3> was up 2 percent at $3,370 versus $3,305.

/...

[54anickel]

54. Meanwhile gold gets smacked - Gold futures' retreat capped by dollar

World Gold Council reports record demand during 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-retreat-dollars-weakness/story.aspx?guid=%7BB0BC8D8F%2D28AA%2D4768%2D90F6%2D060B1C8A72DF%7D&dist=moreover

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures edged lower Thursday morning, but declines were limited as the dollar continued to weaken after a mixed batch of U.S. economic data.

The benchmark gold contract added more than $3 an ounce gain in Wednesday's session.

"This hesitation in gold has taken place despite a series of seemingly auspicious news for the precious metal," said Jon Nadler, an investment-products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

"The sharply lower industrial production and capacity utilization numbers point to contraction in the economy and the more worrisome news of net capital outflows amid a steep decline in fresh inflows has to have dollar bulls on the run once more," he said, in e-mailed commentary.

"Perhaps the news offset each other, as lower economic growth might dampen metals demand, while a declining currency would certainly stimulate it," Nadler said.

snip>

Industrial demand was the highest ever at 458 tons, and investment demand was 7% higher than in 2005 in tonnage terms and 45% higher in dollar terms, said the World Gold Council, an advocacy organization funded by the world's leading gold miners. (There's that worth less buck again)

more...

[Ghost Dog]

63. Maund on Gold & Silver

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund021407.html

We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy. The open question now therefore is whether gold will go on to break above $680 soon, which would be expected to lead to a rapid run at last year’s highs in the $730 area, or whether it will first react back towards the third fan line, which happens frequently after a breakout from one of these 3-arc fan patterns.



Gold has had a significant runup in the 5-week uptrend that began at the early January lows, and is now substantially overbought as shown by its Stochastics, making it vulnerable to a short-term reaction, especially as it is still in a zone of strong resistance, which would actually be a positive development in a sense, as long as it didn’t go too far, as it would unwind the overbought condition and thus put gold in better position to stage a convincing breakout. The RSI and MACD lines are not seriously overbought, on the other hand, and given that an overbought condition as shown by Stochastics can persist for a considerable time, gold may just go ahead and break above $680 soon anyway, overbought or not. Should gold react soon it is important that it does not break below the 3rd fanline and below the upper trendline shown on the long-term chart below. At this point in time these lines are crossing at about $630, with the 200-day moving average just beneath, making this an important support level where we would expect the price to find support on any short-term reaction.

<snip, 6-year chart (well worth contemplating), commentary...>

The dollar is worth taking a look at here as a resolution of the current standoff in the dollar will likely determine whether gold breaks higher or reacts back to the $635 area.



<snip commentary...>

Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year’s highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright.

On the 1-year chart we can see how silver has made steady, measured progress within an uptrend that began after the December and early January sell off. This uptrend has brought the price back up to the broad zone of heavy resistance between about $13.50 and last year’s highs around $15. As we can see on the 1-year chart, periods of gradual ascent have in the past been followed by severe, if short-lived reactions, and after a 5-week gradual uptrend back into the zone of heavy resistance, the risk of another such sharp reaction is clearly increasing. The lack of dynamism on this advance is not liked and is viewed as increasing the risk of a short-term reaction. Silver could still break higher here, and may even gather the momentum to break clear above last year’s highs, but it is viewed as more likely that it will react first, probably back to the dotted uptrend line shown, an event that would be expected to synchronize with gold retreating back to support at its third fanline currently at about $635.

<snip chart...>

It is the dollar that holds the key to what happens next. The standoff in the dollar that has been going on for weeks, described in the Gold Market update, is due to be resolved soon, and the way the dollar breaks out will determine the immediate fate of gold and silver.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

86. UPDATE 5-Base metals soar as bulls dominate sentiment

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=breakingFundsNews&storyID=2007-02-15T200223Z_01_L15399588_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-METALS-UPDATE-5.XML
Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:02 PM GMT

LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Worries about supplies from Indonesia pushed tin prices to a record high on Thursday and copper saw a 5-week peak as investors, sensing a change in sentiment, piled into base metals, traders said.

Nickel hit a new record high at $39,350 a tonne, lead saw its highest level -- $1,750 -- since December 12, when it hit a contract high of $1,785, and zinc touched a two-week peak of $3,435.

However, the rally sparked by fund buying in the morning session was later undermined by data from the United States showing a 0.5 percent drop in January industrial production.

"Commodity trading advisors (funds) were in buying, really going for it. This week has been a lot more positive for metals," a LME trader said. "But U.S. data cast a pall over the market in the afternoon."

/...

[ozymandius]

10. Microsoft settles Iowa antitrust case

DES MOINES, Iowa - Microsoft Corp. on Wednesday settled a class-action lawsuit filed on behalf of thousands of Iowans who bought the company's programs between 1994 and 2006. Terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed.

The lawsuit sought more than $330 million from Microsoft for allegedly engaging in monopolistic and anticompetitive conduct that caused customers to pay more for software than they would have if there had been competition.

Microsoft denied the allegations, saying Iowa customers received quality products at fair prices.

-cut-

Both sides agreed the settlement will include making money available to buy computers and software for Iowa schools.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/technology/16702974.htm

[ozymandius]

12. Dell makes key executive appointment

Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell on Wednesday made his first major change since retaking leadership of the computer maker two weeks ago, creating a new global operations group aimed at reducing product costs.

The unit consolidates manufacturing, supply chain and procurement activities, Round Rock, Texas-based Dell said. It will be led by Michael Cannon, the president and chief executive of Solectron Corp. He will join Dell on Feb. 26.

Dell, who reclaimed the title of CEO on Jan. 31, is shuffling executives and making changes to revive sales and profit.

http://www.latimes.com/technology/la-fi-dell15feb15,1,5769402.story?coll=la-headlines-technology

[54anickel]

47. Dell's saga: When facts don't matter

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/DellsSagaWhenFactsDontMatter.aspx

snip>

Furthermore, the computer maker announced in the same news release that it wouldn't make the consensus estimates for this quarter, which was the case in three out of the previous four quarters. The quarter in which Dell actually won at beat the number -- last quarter -- was one in which it didn't produce any financials. Dell hasn't been able to produce financial information for a couple of quarters, thanks to the continuing Securities and Exchange Commission investigation of possible "misstatements in prior financial reports, including issues related to accruals, reserves and other balance-sheet items that may affect the company's previously reported financial results." That's quoting from Dell's Sept. 11, 2006, news release.

Readers may recall that in the past 18 months, Dell's strategy was to gain market share, then boost profitability, then gain market share, then boost profitability again. Along the way, Dell decided not just to be the "direct model" but also to open retail outlets. There is nothing that the company hasn't tried. All of which demonstrates that it's obviously in disarray.

Thus, I assumed that when the stock reopened Feb. 1 (after being halted the night before), it would be hammered. But I was wrong, as it was immediately up 8% -- having never even down-ticked, although by day's end some sanity did prevail, as the stock closed flattish.

Naturally, folks chose to ignore the recent data -- showing that Windows Vista has not only not stimulated personal-computer sales but has frozen them -- as they rallied behind the battle cry that founder Michael Dell is back now and that he will return the company to its former glory. The rather large fly in that ointment is that Michael Dell never left the company. He and Rollins had essentially been co-CEOs. All the problems and miscues that have occurred at Dell have been a function of Michael Dell's mistakes, not someone else's.

Dynamic duo in deep doo-doo?

more...

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.17 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

Dollar Pummeled Since London Open With Help From US Data And Bernanke

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Pummeled_Since_London_Open_1171478985042.html

Sentiment and speculation seemed to be a stronger force in the currency market Wednesday morning than actual data. When the US calendar started to release its retail sales data and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments, the already initiated dollar slide accelerated.

Marking the dollar move in dramatic effect, EURUSD broke its month long range seen at 1.3050 in a 125-point rally to 1.3050. Also playing with an easily recognizable range, USDCHF kept its floor in after the 110-point drop bounced off of 1.2370. The British pound took advantage of a weakened dollar to rally a massive 190 points to within arms reach of 1.9650. Finally, USDJPY wasn’t nearly as consistent in its 75-point slide as yen traders held off ahead of the impending Japanese GDP report.

Unlike yesterday’s trade report, Wednesday’s data found quite a bit of fanfare among the FX ranks. Offering satisfaction to short-term traders, the day’s indicators were somewhat mixed. MBA reported a 1.2 percent pick up in mortgage approvals last week, though those related to purchases actually dropped for the second consecutive week. Also over looked in the hoopla was the Business inventory and sales numbers. Inventories passed the month unchanged, the first such incidence of such since July of 2005, though sales jumped 1.4 percent. This is an encouraging relationship that supports some economists’ theory that the manufacturing sector has throttled back on production in order to burn off the inventory glut that was built through the first half of 2006. Amid all the ‘hard’ economic data, the most closely watched gauge was the Commerce Department’s read on January retail sales. Already expected to slow, purchasing activity actually stalled for the month on drops in auto and gas receipts. The value of gasoline sales dropped 0.7 percent along with prices while the auto sector reported a 1.3 percent slip. On the other hand, spending on furniture and consumer goods rose, suggesting the average American would continue to support growth into the new year.

While there were plenty of easily-read indicators available for dollar trading, the market was more taken by the less concise risk associated with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Offering the best chance for momentum in the currency market, the opening statement from the central banker triggered the biggest move across the majors. After allowing some time to digest the lengthy text, the market honed in on the specific phrase that there are initial signs that “inflation pressures are beginning to diminish.” This dovish tilt specifically attacks one of the last bastions dollar bulls have for expecting a return to rate hikes by the end of the year. Aside from this outlook on inflation though, the rest of the data was not too far out of the Fed’s customary stance. Bernanke repeated his projection of a possible positive turn in housing and the consumer’s ability to foot the bill for economic growth. Even his cautionary inflation flag was still flying while his core PCE projection for the year held at 2 to 2.25 percent. Since much of the language in the testimony reflected what Fed members have preached for months now, the dollar began to hit support in anticipation of the second wave of data due tomorrow.

...more...

US Dollar - A Deeper Look into Bernanke Comments

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___A_Deeper_1171493086579.html

US Dollar – On Valentines Day, the Senate Banking Committee showed their love for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke by applauding him for doing a good job of managing the US economy. This is a welcome shift from the attack and criticism that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan usually receives when he sits in the same chair. However even though the Senate was light on Bernanke, he was not as light on the US dollar. Traders were looking for the Fed Chairman to signal that another rate hike is needed in the near future but instead, Bernanke took a more moderate stance on inflation and warned that the housing market remains a drag on growth. These comments sent the US dollar tumbling and the move triggered a long awaited break in the EUR/USD. For the past month, the EUR/USD has remained trapped between 1.2865 and 1.3065; today’s break took the currency pair to a high of 1.3151 before retracing. To clarify, Bernanke was not pessimistic about the outlook for the economy. In fact, he believes that consumer spending will continue to grow solidly and that even though inflation pressure could diminish the risks are still tilted to the upside. The main takeaway message from Bernanke is the same message that he left us with at the FOMC meeting in January, which is that they need to see more data before deciding what to do next with interest rates. The next monetary policy announcement is not until March 21st. There will a great deal of new information on how well the economy and the housing market are doing between now and then so if the economy does improve, a rate hike in March is not out of the question. Bernanke specifically said that he wants to see how well new and existing home sales fare in the spring before drawing any conclusions. On other topics, Bernanke sided with Treasury Secretary Paulson on Japan by saying that they are not manipulating their currency. He is not worried about dollar diversification and noted that fourth quarter GDP will most likely be revised downwards. Meanwhile this morning’s retail sales and business inventories were non-events. Retail sales growth was flat in the month of January, which was weaker than expected. Excluding autos however, sales increased by a more than expected 0.3 percent. Retail sales for December was revised higher which indicate that the trend is still up. Business inventories were unchanged in December, which was right in line with expectations. November’s numbers were revised down from 0.4 percent to 0.2 percent. Bernanke’s testimony has set a moderately dollar bearish tone but the excitement has not ended. We are still expecting the Empire State survey, the Treasury’s report on Net Foreign Purchases of US securities, industrial production, Philly Fed and the NAHB housing market index tomorrow. Bernanke will also be testifying once again to the House Committee where he will undergo another round of questioning.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

29. Pound Falls To Majors On Lower Retail Sales Data

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20070215\ACQRTT200702150808RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0495.htm
&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD
&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

(RTTNews) - The pound dropped to a one-month low against the yen and softened to other major currencies following the release of a report showing that UK retail sales fell unexpectedly in January.

...

Thursday morning, the pound gave back early gains to the dollar after the release of British retail data. After climbing to a one-week high of 1.9678, the sterling fell sharply to touch 1.9566 at 7:30 am Eastern. Comments offered on Wednesday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fueled speculation about a possible US rate cut, driving the dollar lower. In addition to more testimony from Bernanke on Thursday, traders will look to import prices and manufacturing data for guidance.

The news that UK retail sales fell unexpectedly in January drive the pound lower to the euro. After drifting higher to .6679 in early trading, the pound dropped sharply to hit .6711 by mid-morning. Trading took place amid the release of the European Central Bank's February monthly report.

/..

[54anickel]

35. FOREX-Dollar falls to 6-week lows on capital flows data

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=3d6e30c3-ac7f-45cc-bd6f-462b6213a4a1

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a six-week low against a basket of major currencies on Thursday after a report showed a net outflow from U.S. capital markets in December.

The euro <EUR=> rose to six-week high of $1.3158 from around $1.3130 before the data. The dollar fell to 120.00 yen from around 120.10, edging closer to a one-month low at 119.79 hit overnight.

The Treasury Department said the United States saw a net outflow of $11 billion in December, nowhere near enough to cover the country's trade deficit for that month.

[Ghost Dog]

48. Dollar extends losses vs yen, down 1 pct

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-02-15T155219Z_01_NYJ000199_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-11-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell sharply against the yen on Thursday, touching its lowest level in more than a month and extending losses after data showed the first net outflow from U.S. capital markets in December since mid-2005.

The dollar's fall against the yen <JPY=> gained momentum after the trigger of automatic sell orders placed below 120 yen, traders said. The dollar was down more than 1 percent on the day at 119.51 yen, on track for its biggest daily fall in almost three months.

/...

[54anickel]

52. Today's Pfenning - Inflation Risks Diminishing?

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1227

snip>

About 9 AM Central Time yesterday morning, a note flashed across my screen from a trader friend that was very closely following the Bernanke economic update... He said... "Bernanke says inflation risks diminish"... I was shocked! I quickly looked over to the currency trading screens, and the euro was taking off for a flight over 1.31! It had already booked a 1/2-cent gain on the disappointing Retail Sales number, but that move had nothing on this jump over the 1.31 fence!

So... Big Ben thinks inflation risks have diminished, or are diminishing... GIVE ME A BREAK! Is there a new report that the markets are privy to that Big Ben perused before giving his testimony? Are tea leaves involved? How about tarot cards? ( I think that's what they are called.) Anyway, you get the picture... So, now we have a Fed chairman that just makes stuff up? GREAT! NOT! Big Ben went on to say some other stuff... But nothing that moved the markets like a "inflation risks diminish" statement!

He's fallen into a trap... The oil/energy trap... His counterpart over at the European Central Bank (ECB) hasn't fallen into this trap, he fully recognizes that the price of oil was temporarily weaker... He also, like me, recognizes the "powder keg" in the Middle East that could set off oil prices going to $100 at any time...

Oh well... I think Big Ben was simply setting us up for a rate cut this summer, if not before... It's my opinion that the Fed isn't anywhere near to being "out of the woods" with regards to inflation... But, then I don't use tea leaves or tarot cards!

OK... So euro owners thank you, Mr. Bernanke...

Overnight, Japan posted a much better than expected 4.8% GDP for the 4th QTR... OK... I'm not going to sit here and say "I told you so," no wait, I just did! I told you that Japan's economy was kicking tail and taking names later, and the Bank of Japan should have raised rates at either of the last two meetings. That 4.8% growth rate is the fastest quarter of growth in over 3 years! This isn't Australia... This isn't Germany... This is the 2nd-largest economy in the world, growing at 4.8%! Yes, Virginia, there is global growth... And all the other central banks around the world have done what they needed to do to keep inflation from entering into the picture, except... The Bank of Japan!

more...

[Ghost Dog]

58. Dollar trims losses vs euro after Bernanke comment

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH16087_2007-02-15_16-05-06_NYJ000200&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:05am ET

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar trimmed losses against the euro on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. inflation must be well controlled for the U.S. expansion to continue.

The euro fell as low as $1.3130 <EUR=> from about $1.3160 after Bernanke's comments.

Bernanke, in his second day of congressional testimony, also said the U.S. economy was much stronger than many people initially thought.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

72. Bernanke challenged on inflation concern

http://www.startribune.com/535/story/1004642.html

WASHINGTON -- The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee took aim today at the Federal Reserve's belief that inflation rather than slow growth poses the greatest risk to the economy.

Rep. Barney Frank told Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke he was a "little puzzled" by Bernanke's position, arguing that prospects of slower growth seemed to him to be equally as important a risk as the possibility of a flare-up of inflation.

Frank, D-Mass., said he found the central bank's identification of inflation as the bigger risk "troubling."

Bernanke, appearing before Frank's panel to deliver the Fed's semiannual report to Congress, defended the Fed's assessment of the inflation threat. "In order for this expansion to continue in a sustainable way, inflation needs to be well controlled," the Fed chairman insisted.

The tense exchange was a tiny bump in an otherwise smooth and cordial hearing where Bernanke fielded wide-ranging questions on the nation's record-high trade deficit, trade competition from China, concerns about widening economic inequality between high- and low-income workers, and the strain on the country's balance sheets with a massive wave of retiring baby boomers.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

74. Dollar Collapses Under Data Downpour

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Collapses_Under_Data_Downpour_1171561528882.html?engine=rss&keyword=article
Thursday, 15 February 2007 16:45:22 GMT

For the third consecutive session, the dollar has been pummeled in the currency market. While the previous two days have evolved from the cumulative effects of Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s commentary and technicals, fundamentals easily took over Thursday.

The symbolic dollar pairing, EURUSD added modestly to yesterday’s breakout by pushing all the way to 1.3170 before retracing. Taking note, Swiss franc traders followed the anti-dollar sentiment by pushing USDCHF below the 1.2385 range bottom with an extension to 1.2340. On a similar note, USDJPY finally broke through its own floor seen at 120 in 100-point peak to trough move to 119.40. Finally, the British pound, troubled by its own disappointing data, lost 120 points against the dollar to act as the black sheep of the group.

Market-moving economic indicators were in abundance Tuesday – a solid way to keep volatility boosted in the wake of Bernanke’s first round testimony on the Hill yesterday. While the central banker will make a second go today before the House of Representatives, few expect his comments to drift into uncharted territory after side-stepping so many prying senatorial questions. Instead, traders have found there way to manufacturing and inflation numbers to light the dollar’s path. First thing this morning, factory activity shook the market to life with the only positive read for the entire morning. Expected to improve modestly with a 10.6 print, the indicator instead reported the biggest positive jump since July of 2005. Since the manufacturing sector has struggled over the past few months with national and regional gauges marking on-again, off-again contractionary periods, this indicator bodes very well for the fragile recovery in GDP. This indicator also helped to offset the backward looking industrial production number. According the government’s numbers, factory activity last month actually dropped 0.5 percent, the biggest contraction in 15 months.

Looking outside the manufacturing sector, the rest of the session’s data was even more convincing for dollar bears. With the political heat on the trade accounts mounting, today’s TICS report will not go over too well. According to the government’s numbers, net foreign investment in US assets dropped to its lowest level since January of 2001. Waning interest in Treasuries, corporate bonds and equities has left the TICS number well short of funding the physical trade deficit. Changing gears, inflation speculators will be revaluating their CPI outlooks after a weaker than expected report from the import price index. The volatile price gauge reported a 1.2 contraction in prices in January, while annual growth decelerated to 0.1 percent. When looking within the statistics it was easy to see that the energy group heavily influenced the overall indicator. Excluding the 7.3 percent drop in petroleum prices and other fuels, prices actually rose 0.3 percent on average for the month. Now, the market will hold its breath to see whether gasoline exacted the same influence on the consumer basket. Also notable for the day, the weekly initial claims number has darkened the sentiment surrounding one of the US economy’s best performing sectors - labor. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 10th jumped to 357,000, the most since the final week of November. Much of this surprising rise is being attributed to the effects of the harsh winter storms that have hit the Midwest and Northeastern regions of the United States. However, it is hard to associate the highest level of continuing claims in over a year on temporary effects.

/...

[ozymandius]

18. Washington inaugurates new dollar coin series

Dollar coins have gone clunk with the American public, but maybe that's about to change.

Today, the U.S. Mint is issuing a gold-color "Presidential Dollar" coin that it hopes will appeal to collectors and consumers, unlike the wallflower Sacagawea and Susan B. Anthony dollar coins.

-cut-

Presidents Day coins

The George Washington coin reaches banks today, in time for Presidents Day on Monday. Coins depicting John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison are due out later this year. Four additional presidents will be honored each year for a decade. Each president's coin will be minted only once, during a single 10-week period. Only presidents who have been dead at least two years will be depicted.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/02/15/DOLLAR.TMP

[54anickel]

39. More dead president heads - wonderful. I'd be both surprised and

disappointed if these take off only based on the re-design. What would that say about the "mentality" of this nation? I really liked the Sacagawea, and would give them to kids as gifts or tips (for score keepers at horseshoe tournies) - they loved 'em and most could tell me her story (unlike most adults).

Hubby always has a pocketful that he gets as change from the vending machines at work. Now I suppose his pocket will be full of dead president heads instead. How sad. :eyes:


NYT has a loooong story, video and lots of reader's opinion on it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/15dollar.html?_r=1&ei=5094&en=73d39692ee98fab3&hp=&ex=1171515600&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1171551468-Whfcw6wk6BlO3EVWM3IiKQ

snip>

This time the Mint has taken a new approach to designing the coins as well as promoted them with the retailers, banks and transit systems that will play the biggest role in making the coins circulate effectively.

But the x-factor in any dollar coin catching on is the possible withdrawal of the dollar bill, an issue that for now remains unaddressed by Congress, the Treasury or the Federal Reserve Board.

snip>

The striking portraits, in three-quarter view, are larger than on past coinage, and another novelty is the use of edge lettering for the first time since the 1930s: “E Pluribus Unum,” “In God We Trust” and the date and mintmark are cut in tiny letters into the outer rim.

The technology needed for this edge lettering, which was mandated by Congress, was planned and installed in just nine months, according to Richard R. Robidoux, the plant manager at the Philadelphia Mint.

The new dollars are also being burnished and treated with a chemical to make them stay shiny longer.

snip>

In a few weeks, production of the Washington design will end, and John Adams will step into the limelight, succeeded later this year by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. Meanwhile, the Mint will continue producing Sacagawea dollars, since Congress stipulated that a third of each year’s total production must continue with the old design.

snip>

Most vending machines and transit ticket machines were refitted to take dollar coins after the Sacagawea’s debut in 2000. Indeed, the vending industry is eager to recoup its costs and is hoping for increased sales from having higher denomination coins in use, in addition to saving $200 million to $300 million annually that is lost because of difficulties with paper dollars.

snip>

Before making any decision to withdraw the dollar bill, Congress, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve would have to re-examine all the costs involved, both to the government and to the public. The psychological barrier to withdrawing the greenback, a global symbol of America’s economic might, is obvious. The financial issue is subtler.

Dollar coins cost about 20 cents each to make, but last for up to 30 years; bills cost only about 4 cents each, but must be replaced every 18 to 22 months. That's what a buck is worth - 4 cents, So it will never be entirely worthless!!! Phew, and here I was worried.

more....

[AnneD]

45. The coins stop at......

Gerald Ford. I am surprised the Ron Regun folks folks aren't kicking up a storm. They won't be happy until his face is on Rushmore.


edited for sarcasm
Bad News/Good News Clinton and Bush won't be in your pants :spray:

[54anickel]

50. when they have to add extra zeros to our currency, I wanna see

Raygun, Greenspin and Dimson caricatures inside each one of those zeros! That's the only premise I'd agree to having Raygun's mug on our $$$.
But hey, nobody's asking me. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

68. You are

so wicked.....I love it. Personally, the way we collect series in this country-I thik is a not so veiled attempt to have us hold our own currency. :rofl:

[ozymandius]

71. Since the basic shape is a circle

I wanna see a peace sign and other progressinve circular icons gracing the new silver dollar.

[54anickel]

79. This would be cool, but hypocritical under the current mal-admin

Maybe we could go with a sports motif for now - baseballs, basketballs, soccer balls, golf balls, etc.

Then again, these would be refreshing - and could have multiple meanings :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

81. Love it!

Educational coins. It also lends itself to factoids like:

Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11.
Iraq possessed NO weapons of mass destruction.
GW Bush drinks his own blood. Really!

[AnneD]

89. Bad Ozy

bad boy.:spray:
It's Cheney that drinks blood. He and Greenspin have Bloody Marys every Wed. afternoon.

[54anickel]

98. Heh-heh, I would have just stopped after the word "drinks". Sort of a fill in the blank

lesson.

[UpInArms]

21. Masco (plumbing parts) to Cut 8,000 Jobs After Quarterly Loss

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/15home.html?ex=1329195600&en=70266b80f545fa2c&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

The Masco Corporation, the maker of Behr paint and Delta faucets, posted its first loss in five years and is laying off about 16 percent of its work force as a result of a slump in the housing market.

The company also forecast that its 2007 profit would be lower than analysts anticipated.

The fourth-quarter loss was $187 million, or 49 cents a share, compared with net income of $173 million, or 41 cents a share, a year earlier. Masco, based in Taylor, Mich., said further weakness in the housing market might push 2007 earnings to $1.50 a share or less, including unspecified charges for the job cuts.

Masco will have cut 8,000 jobs by the end of the first quarter, including 1,000 salaried positions, the chief executive, Richard A. Manoogian, said in a conference call. Fewer sales at the Lowe’s Companies and Home Depot and the slowdown in new home construction, which accounts for 40 percent of Masco’s sales, hurt revenue in the fourth quarter.

...more...

[llmart]

70. Oh, just what Michigan needs right now............

more job cuts!

[UpInArms]

23. A Guilty Plea for Options Backdating

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/15options.html?ex=1329195600&en=da188f1cffcdf288&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

The founder and former head of Take-Two Interactive Software, the maker of the Grand Theft Auto video games, pleaded guilty to falsifying records in a stock-option-backdating scheme and agreed to help state authorities investigate the company, the Manhattan district attorney said yesterday.

The former executive, Ryan A. Brant, pleaded guilty to a felony and agreed to pay $7.3 million in penalties to New York State and to the Securities and Exchange Commission, with which he also settled charges related to backdating of options.

The state charge carries a penalty of up to four years in prison, but Mr. Brant could receive probation if he helps the district attorney investigate Take-Two, which has faced legal and regulatory inquiries in recent years.

<snip>

Mr. Brant is the son of Peter M. Brant, the newsprint magnate and an original investor in Take-Two.

According to the district attorney’s office, Mr. Brant, who was chairman and chief executive of Take-Two, which is based in Manhattan, received 10 backdated options grants for 2.1 million shares from 1997 to 2003.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. Greenspan says economic growth means working longer

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070214.wgreenspan0214/BNStory/Business/home

TORONTO — North American productivity has slowed substantially because the continent is at the top of the game in terms of technological development, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told a Toronto audience Tuesday.

As a result, new gains are hard to come by, he said in the video conference. “We are at the cutting edge of technology, as are you , and we don't have the capability of borrowing technology from others,” he said.

Since population growth is dwindling, the implications of slower productivity include lower levels of economic growth in the next couple of decades, he said.

In the United States, that means growth of about 2.5 per cent a year. The only thing society can do to increase that rate of growth is to push baby boomers to work well past the age of 65, he said.

snip>

Generally, he was upbeat about the stability of the world's most powerful economy, saying capital markets seem ready to finance a massive U.S. current account deficit. Even if some foreign central banks start selling U.S. dollar reserves, he said there is enough liquidity in the world these days to keep the global economy running smoothly. “We can absorb the adjustment,” he said. :eyes:

more...

[AnneD]

34. Yeah.....

"we can absorb the adjustment," .....Our slaves will just work longer hours with less pay.......

My kingdom for a wooden stake and garlic.

[54anickel]

38. Group says deregulation not helping poor (TX electric)

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4555116.html

Low-income customers are not benefiting from electric deregulation, according to a consumer advocacy group, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now.

The group called on the Legislature to reinstate low-income consumer discounts, permanently ban summer shut-offs for low-income consumers, and ban the use of credit scores to determine whether a customer has to pay a deposit.

"When people say switch and shop around, it's hard for everyone, but it's a lot harder for people with back bills they can't pay and bad credit scores," said Ginny Goldman, an organizer for ACORN in Houston.

The group surveyed 646 consumers who visited its centers in Dallas and Houston.

It found that 63 percent of customers in Houston and 74 percent of customers in Dallas didn't know they could switch electric companies.

Many who switched found prices were still unaffordable and either had a disconnect notice or had been terminated, according to ACORN.

more...

[AnneD]

53. This is so true....

we tried to go green with renewable energy (slightly higher but we wanted to be green). We got turned down-forget that we pay our utilities every month and are on a plan to pay off out debts. The differences between companies in Houston are not that much-but then I knew that in deregulation....the customer is the one that gets screwed. Dereg. doesn't work in a public trust situation.

[54anickel]

40. 10:31 and all in the black - so far, so good

Dow 12,753.55 11.69 (0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,492.79 4.41 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,455.67 0.37 (0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.70% 0.03
30-yr Bond 4.7970% 0.0290
NYSE Volume 546,806,000
Nasdaq Volume 444,297,000

10:30 am : With the bulk of industry leadership succumbing to early consolidation, a renewed wave of buying interest within the last 30 minutes now has seven out of 10 sectors in positive territory. Caterpillar (CAT 67.64 +1.48) surging 2.2% after announcing a huge $7.5 bln stock buyback has helped the Industrials sector turn positive and is the biggest reason behind the Dow briefly hitting a new intraday record high.

Technology, though, is providing the bulk of early support as investors continue to scoop up large-cap tech names (e.g. MSFT +2.0%, CSCO +2.1%, INTC +1.6%, GOOG +1.2%, QCOM +7.6%, DELL +2.2%, YHOO +4.5%, and AMAT +4.8%). DJ30 +11.82 NASDAQ +3.51 SOX +0.8% SP500 +0.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1383/1261/354 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1301/1543/200 mln

10:00 am : With Fed Chairman Bernanke surprising Wall Street yesterday with a more dovish tone, investors are waiting to hear what he'll say over the next few hours, beginning momentarily, with regard to diminished inflationary pressures and the current stance of policy fostering sustainable economic growth. Even though his testimony is widely expected to mirror Wednesday's, the Q&A session will be closely watched to see if he stays on message and doesn't offer up any surprises to what the market concluded a day earlier as a more neutral stance for the Fed. DJ30 +4.57 NASDAQ -1.37 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1426/1058/176 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1289/1348/78 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks open relatively unchanged as mixed economic news on the heels of a two-day rally and ahead of more remarks from Bernanke offer little incentive to keep buying efforts intact. The NY Empire State Index rebounded from a 19-month low, which is good news for struggling manufacturing sector. However, an unexpected drop in Jan. Industrial Production due largely to a 0.7% decline in the key manufacturing component is disappointing, as it takes away from the optimism of the December data.DJ30 -1.88 NASDAQ +1.50 SP500 -0.62 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 48 mln

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Stocks still look to open on a relatively flat note as investors sift through yet another piece of economic data. January Industrial Production unexpectedly fell 0.5% (consensus 0.0%) while Capacity Utilization checked in at 81.2% (consensus 81.7%); but investors are waiting for Bernanke's second day of testimony to perhaps set a more definitive tone to today's action.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trade continues to improve and now points to a slightly positive start for the indices. Caterpillar (CAT) recently announcing a huge $7.5 bln stock buyback puts the Dow component up nearly 3% in pre-market action. Helping the tech-heavy Nasdaq early on is Qualcomm (QCOM), which is surging 6% after being upgraded at Oppenheimer. However, with Fed Chairman Bernanke heading back to Capitol Hill today (10:00 ET) and more data to digest on the economic calendar, there is very little conviction on the part of buyers' current attempts to extend two days of hefty gains.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.1. Early indications improve but still point to a slightly lower open for the cash market as mixed economic data so far aren't enough to curb the temptation to lock in recent gains. The February NY Empire State Index rose to a healthy 24.4 (consensus 11.0), rebounding from its lowest reading in 19 months; but the focus now turns to this afternoon's Philly Fed survey to provide an even better read on regional manufacturing conditions. Initial claims rose a larger than expected 44K to 357K (consensus 315K). Bonds have strengthened in response to the data, as the 10-year note is now up 7 ticks to yield 4.70%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.2. After recovering all of last week's declines in one session, now leaving the three major indices up more than 1.2% for the week, it's not surprising to see stocks taking a breather this morning. With the Nasdaq leading the two-day rally and still pacing the majors for the year, Nasdaq 100 futures understandably are succumbing to the bulk of early profit-taking efforts.

Investors are also showing some reserve ahead of economic data. First out will be updates on labor conditions, e.g. initial claims, and manufacturing activity, e.g. NY Empire State Index, at 8:30 ET.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.3.

[54anickel]

42. Dark side of the housing boom: Shoddy work

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/13/magazines/moneymag/construction.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007021413

(Money Magazine) -- Less than a year after moving into her new 2,100-square-foot house in Lenexa, Kans., Susan Sabin has strung up lemon lights in her front window.

The lemons, she says, go perfectly with the home's most prominent features: jammed doors, warped windows, bent pipes and cracked walls. "The house is essentially splitting in two," says Sabin.

At the peak of the recent housing boom, home buyers scooped up a million newly built homes every year while homeowners poured more than $200 billion into renovations. But now stories of shifting soil, leaky roofs, damaged stucco and other construction defects abound.

Though many builders have worked to improve the quality of their houses over the past decade, says Alan Mooney, president of Criterium Engineers, a national engineering firm, the building frenzy also opened the door for unskilled labor, unscrupulous contractors and untested products.

"When everyone is out there building as fast as they can, that does result in more defects," he says.

more...

[AnneD]

55. Both my step dad and brother

are craftsmen-Dad is a builder/carpenter and Brother is a welder. Both have bitched to no end about how folks hire cheap immigrant labour, do a shitty job and could care less, because when you discover it, they are long gone. Too bad she didn't read DU....'cause I've mentioned this on more than one occasion. I'm telling you folks-most of these new homes are crap-esp those built during the bubble years. Take a strict building inspector or a great carpenter in with you to inspect. When I build or buy, you bet I'm taking the guys along with me.

[ozymandius]

77. I've worked construction jobs and renovated old houses - really old houses.

I've seen first hand how a house should be built with quality lumber, sistered floor joists, substantial headers over windows and doors and the like. What I've seen so much of late is pure crap. Some people get miffed when they discover a builder used cheap, chalky "contractor grade" paint. I've seen finished work on new housing that should cause the contractor's license to be revoked.

I've seen nail pops in drywall inside a building that is only six months old. I've seen drywall srews inappropriately used to the degree that a water pipe is perforated. Warped walls. Kitchen cabinets that are only eleven inches deep (most dinner plates will not fit). Ungrounded electrical wiring - a fire hazard.

Even plywood has been replaced with crappy old chipboard that, when wet, crumbles into fluff only fit for hamster cages.

[AnneD]

90. OMG...

:wtf: Plywood replaced by particle board :wow: Some inspector needs to have their license pulled.

[54anickel]

43. Kerry Eyes Fed Pool for Sickest Workers

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/8695442/c_8700709?f=home_todayinfinance

With an eye towards making it more attractive for small businesses to provide health insurance benefits, Sen. John Kerry plans to introduce a bill to create a federal reinsurance pool to help employers pay for the care of seriously ill employees.

Under Kerry's proposal, which he touted during his 2004 presidential bid, the federal government would pay back employers for a percentage of workers who have extremely high health-care expenses. "The high costs of treating the sickest patients are driving up the price tag for everyone else and taking a huge toll on business," Kerry said during a meeting of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee, which he chairs. "Just 1 percent of the population accounts for over 20 percent of health-care expenses."

His 2004 proposal required employers to pay for premiums for up to $50,000 of health-insurance coverage. The rest would be considered "catastrophic" and be paid for by the reinsurance pool. Kerry estimates his plan could save businesses $1,500 per employee.

The catch: in exchange for getting help from the government, employers would have to provide health benefits to their employees and fund preventative programs, such as cancer screenings. Currently, 61 percent of firms with fewer than 50 employees offer their workers health insurance, according to Tarren Bragdon, director of health reform initiatives at the Maine Heritage Policy Center.

A reformed health-care system would give small businesses "access to functioning insurance markets, it would ensure that they and their employees receive adequate care when they need it, and it would improve the affordability of offering and purchasing insurance," Kerry said. Without the president's support for an overhauled system, Congress needs to introduce piecemeal legislation to help small businesses with their insurance premiums, he added.

President Bush recently introduced a health-care proposal that would tax employer-provided benefits above a certain level, discouraging more employees from requesting what Bush called "expensive, gold-plated plans." That idea, however, would put a burden on a small business, according to Kerry. "If just one employee gets sick, the insurance premium would easily exceed the amount of the deduction, thereby imposing tax penalties on all the workers or causing the small business to drop coverage all together," he said.

more...

[acmejack]

44. Loans warning raises concerns over sub-prime market

A savage sell-off has swept through the credit derivatives market for sub-prime mortgages since HSBC and New Century Financial delivered a bitter pill to investors last week.

The financial institutions' warning of difficulties with their portfolios of loans to American borrowers has sent credit derivative investors running for cover. And while the market for credit derivatives on sub-prime mortgages might be small, the extent of the sell-off has raised concerns about the vulnerability of the broader structured finance world.

The cost of buying insurance against default on sub-prime mortgage bonds issued in 2006, as measured by a key index, has soared. The ABX index reflects market views, expressed in basis points, of the general credit risk of the underlying securities.

The ABX index for bonds, rated BBB-, has soared about 300bp higher since last week's news, reflecting a perceived increase in risk, and pushing the index to a record level above 960bp, signalling an alarming rise in investor concern over the potential losses on 2006 mortgage bonds.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0e9f6a24-bbd0-11db-afe4-0000779e2340.html

[54anickel]

51. Wonder who's buying?

From your article...

What this means is that while there are hedge funds and mortgage originators lining up to take bearish views on the sub-prime mortgage market and on the state of US housing in general, there are very few investors willing to take the other side of the trade. :shrug:

[54anickel]

57. OT - The Build-a-War Workshop

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/021007F.shtml

The New York Times | Editorial

Saturday 10 February 2007

It took far too long, but a report by the Pentagon inspector general has finally confirmed that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's do-it-yourself intelligence office cooked up a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda to help justify an unjustifiable war.

The report said the team headed by Douglas Feith, under secretary of defense for policy, developed "alternative" assessments of intelligence on Iraq that contradicted the intelligence community and drew conclusions "that were not supported by the available intelligence." Mr. Feith certainly knew the Central Intelligence Agency would cry foul, so he hid his findings from the C.I.A. Then Vice President Dick Cheney used them as proof of cloak-and-dagger meetings that never happened, long-term conspiracies between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden that didn't exist, and - most unforgivable - "possible Iraqi coordination" on the 9/11 attacks, which no serious intelligence analyst believed.

The inspector general did not recommend criminal charges against Mr. Feith because Mr. Rumsfeld or his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, approved their subordinate's "inappropriate" operations. The renegade intelligence buff said he was relieved.

We're sure he was. But there is no comfort in knowing that his dirty work was approved by his bosses. All that does is add to evidence that the Bush administration knowingly and repeatedly misled Americans about the intelligence on Iraq.

To understand this twisted tale, it is important to recall how Mr. Feith got into the creative writing business. Top administration officials, especially Mr. Cheney, had long been furious at the C.I.A. for refusing to confirm the delusion about a grand Iraqi terrorist conspiracy, something the Republican right had nursed for years. Their frustration only grew after 9/11 and the C.I.A. still refused to buy these theories.

more...

[54anickel]

59. Russia's Great-Power Strategy

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=471

Most speeches at diplomatic gatherings aren't worth the time it takes to listen to them. On rare occasion, a speech is delivered that needs to be listened to carefully. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave such a speech over the weekend in Munich, at a meeting on international security. The speech did not break new ground; it repeated things that the Russians have been saying for quite a while. But the venue in which it was given and the confidence with which it was asserted signify a new point in Russian history. The Cold War has not returned, but Russia is now officially asserting itself as a great power, and behaving accordingly.

At Munich, Putin launched a systematic attack on the role the United States is playing in the world. He said: "One state, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way ... This is nourishing an arms race with the desire of countries to get nuclear weapons." In other words, the United States has gone beyond its legitimate reach and is therefore responsible for attempts by other countries -- an obvious reference to Iran -- to acquire nuclear weapons.

Russia for some time has been in confrontation with the United States over U.S. actions in the former Soviet Union (FSU). What the Russians perceive as an American attempt to create a pro-U.S. regime in Ukraine triggered the confrontation. But now, the issue goes beyond U.S. actions in the FSU. The Russians are arguing that the unipolar world -- meaning that the United States is the only global power and is surrounded by lesser, regional powers -- is itself unacceptable. In other words, the United States sees itself as the solution when it is, actually, the problem.

In his speech, Putin reached out to European states -- particularly Germany, pointing out that it has close, but blunt, relations with Russia. The Central Europeans showed themselves to be extremely wary about Putin's speech, recognizing it for what it was -- a new level of assertiveness from an historical enemy. Some German leaders appeared more understanding, however: Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier made no mention of Putin's speech in his own presentation to the conference, while Ruprecht Polenz, chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, praised Putin's stance on Iran. He also noted that the U.S. plans to deploy an anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic was cause for concern -- and not only to Russia.

Putin now clearly wants to escalate the confrontations with the United States and likely wants to build a coalition to limit American power. The gross imbalance of global power in the current system makes such coalition-building inevitable -- and it makes sense that the Russians should be taking the lead. The Europeans are risk-averse, and the Chinese do not have much at risk in their dealings with the United States at the moment. The Russians, however, have everything at risk. The United States is intruding in the FSU, and an ideological success for the Americans in Ukraine would leave the Russians permanently on the defensive.

The Russians need allies but are not likely to find them among other great-power states. Fortunately for Moscow, the U.S. obsession with Iraq creates alternative opportunities. First, the focus on Iraq prevents the Americans from countering Russia elsewhere. Second, it gives the Russians serious leverage against the United States -- for example, by shipping weapons to key players in the region. Finally, there are Middle Eastern states that seek great-power patronage. It is therefore no accident that Putin's next stop, following the Munich conference, was in Saudi Arabia. Having stabilized the situation in the former Soviet region, the Russians now are constructing their follow-on strategy, and that concerns the Middle East.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

65. Full Text Of Putin's Speech To The Munich Conference On Security Policy

http://www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.php?menu_2007=&menu_konferenzen=&sprache=en&id=179

[Ghost Dog]

66. Putin Uses Persian Gulf Trip To Boost Russian Role In Arab World

http://www.payvand.com/news/07/feb/1171.html

February 13, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- It is rare for foreign leaders to be received in such pomp in Saudi Arabia, but Russian President Vladimir Putin was greeted by King Abdullah himself.

Putin brought along a sizable entourage: the head of the state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom, Aleksei Miller; Russian Railways head Vladimir Yakunin, a number of other oligarchs, and some high-ranking Muslim officials.

Most important of those was Tatar President Mintimer Shaimiyev and Vagit Alekperov, the head of the petrochemical giant LUKoil and the only Muslim among the Russian oil magnates. In keeping with local tradition, all female members of the delegation and journalists wore chadors specially tailored for the visit by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Putin completed his historic three-day visit to the Middle East on February 13, after visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan.

Talks Behind Closed Doors

On the surface, no big agreements were reached, although Yakunin did pledge to build a railway between Mecca and Medina.

Addressing Saudi businessmen and financiers, Putin called on them to open Saudi banks in Russia. Putin also promised that Russia would help Saudi Arabia develop a national nuclear program as well as launching several Saudi satellites in addition to the seven already boosted into orbit by a Russian missile in 2005.

For their part, the Saudis promised to allow LUKoil and other Russian companies greater access to Saudi energy projects and to continue talks on buying Russian arms, including the advanced T-90 tanks.

Although the majority of the talks were behind closed doors, many Russian observers believe that the two sides were discussing a future energy strategy -- in particular, plans for a gas cartel.

Gas Cartel

That was the focus of Putin's trip to the tiny Qatar, which is the third-largest producer of natural gas after Russia and Iran.

The plans for such a gas cartel, which first emerged during Putin's visit to Algeria in 2005, are still on the drawing board, but it potentially could include Russia, Qatar, Algeria, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela.

...

Increasingly Assertive

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Carpenter says, Russia appeared weak as it sought to establish a new, post-communist identity. Now Moscow wields economic power through its vast reserves of natural resources, particularly gas and oil.

Carpenter says it's time the U.S. government began treating Russia with more respect and caution than it has in the past 15 years.

"There developed an attitude in Washington that we could pretty well barge into a traditional Russian sphere of influence, and Moscow could do nothing about it. That attitude has to change," he says. "We are still, by far, the leading power in the international system, but Russia has made it abundantly clear that it's no longer content to be treated as a third-rate power. And that's pretty much what Washington had been doing for a good many years."

Carpenter says Russia is not now strong enough to make it a counterbalance to the United States. But its influence is growing, and Washington should recognize that.

/plenty more...

[Ghost Dog]

67. CFR backgrounder: U.S.-Russia Interests on Collision Course

http://www.cfr.org/publication/12645/usrussia_security_interests_on_collision_course.html?breadcrumb=%2F
Author: Lionel Beehner, Staff Writer

February 14, 2007

* Introduction
* A Demand for Respect
* Withdrawing from the ABM Treaty
* Countering Antimissile Moves
* Fueling Russia’s New Complacency
* Moscow Seeks Friends Elsewhere
* Tensions over the “Near Abroad”
* The Limits of Personal Ties

Introduction

U.S.-Russia relations during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tenure have seesawed between mutual cooperation and confrontation. Recently tensions have escalated over American moves to establish an antimissile shield, further expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and encourage the installation of pro-Western governments across Eastern Europe, Moscow’s former sphere of influence. During a biting speech at a recent international security conference in Munich, Putin accused Washington of creating a unipolar world, reviving a nuclear arms race, and demonstrating an “almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations.” Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates disputed accusations the United States was reverting back to a Cold War-like atmosphere of bilateral relations.

...

Indeed, Russian foreign policy has taken on a more assertive and anti-Western tone in recent years. The reason, claims Harvard’s Goldman, stems from the “realization that Russia is now stronger relative to Europe and the United States than at anytime in its history.” Russia is swimming in cash; it holds the world’s third largest holdings of gold and convertible currencies. “Eight years ago the vaults were empty,” Goldman says. “Now there’s been this metamorphosis from bankruptcy to robustness.” But its booming economy—roughly 7 percent annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the past few years—has been primarily buoyed by soaring global oil prices.

Russia boasts the world’s largest known reserves of natural gas. Moscow has used its energy supplies to wrest higher gas prices and more favorable transit rights from many of its energy-dependent neighbors. The Kremlin has imprisoned energy tycoons like former Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky who fell afoul of its brand of see-no-evil politics. It has revised production sharing agreements (PSAs), signed with foreign consortiums during the unsteady days of the 1990s, to develop oil fields near the Sakhalin Islands. Its bully-like moves were met with opprobrium from the international community. Vice President Dick Cheney, on a May 2006 visit to Lithuania, slapped Russia’s wrist for using energy as “a tool of intimidation and blackmail.” Last year’s CFR Task Force report found that U.S.-Russia relations were “headed in the wrong direction.”
Moscow Seeks Friends Elsewhere

One unintended consequence of Putin’s tough talk and downturn in U.S.-Russia relations is a shifting of alliances. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Putin “did more in a single speech to unite Europe and America than anything we could have done in a decade.” Yet Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, hesitated to go that far.” Some of criticism echoed complaints made by European politicians about Washington’s alleged ‘unilateralism,’” he said. Other experts say Russia’s more assertive, anti-Western foreign policy may increasingly push Moscow into the arms of countries with similar foreign outlooks (i.e. China and Iran).

The growing importance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)—whose members include China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan—is one manifestation of this security reconfiguration. Begun as a sleepy mechanism to demilitarize China’s borders a decade ago, the SCO has slowly morphed into a powerful player in an energy-rich region teeming with terrorists and drug pushers. The Shanghai club is retooling its mission statement to include counterterrorism operations, intelligence sharing, and even election monitoring. Meanwhile, the orientation of its members is increasingly aligning to project a more united front that experts say is, if not hostile to, then outwardly suspicious of U.S. military, economic, geopolitical interests in Central Asia. Iran, currently an SCO observer, is clamoring to join the club.

Indeed, Russia-Iran relations continue to irk Washington. Moscow supplies Tehran with assistance to develop its civilian nuclear energy program. Russian engineers helped build the $8 billion nuclear reactor at Bushehr, set to go online later this year. There is also talk of forming an OPEC-like oil cartel between Iran and Russia, which could drive up global oil prices. But perhaps most worrisome to U.S. policymakers is the burgeoning Russian arms trade to Iran. Since 1992, Russia has sold Iran hundreds of major weapons systems. The total value of arms transfer agreements between Iran and Russia ballooned from $300 million between 1998 and 2001 to $1.7 billion between 2002 and 2005.

/more...

[54anickel]

69. Thanks for those links GD. I'll have to read them later tonight when not

so distracted. (Right now I'm trying to finish up an assignment that's due tonight.)

[54anickel]

75. Dow, Nasdaq Advance in Early Afternoon Trading After Ben Bernanke Tempers View on Inflation

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/wall_street.html?.v=20

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street pushed higher Thursday on the likelihood of interest rates remaining steady for a while, even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tempered his take on economic growth and inflation.

Bernanke said the economy may grow faster than anticipated, dampening some of the investor enthusiasm over his forecast a day earlier of cooling growth and easing inflation. But Thursday's comments were still fairly benign and overall market sentiment remained upbeat, just less eager than on Wednesday as the reality set back in that the direction of interest rates will ultimately depend on future data.

The prospect of a rate hike looked pretty dim, though, after economic reports released Thursday that showed a big jump in unemployment claims last week, a huge drop in industrial output in January due to large cutbacks and layoffs in the auto industry, and weaker-than-expected manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.

"The Fed is still data-driven, so we will be looking at the data in the ensuing months," said Jim Herrick, manager of equity trading at Baird & Co. "There's a strong possibility we'll continue this uptrend."

more...

[54anickel]

76. 1:42 update

Dow 12,764.37 22.51 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,493.29 4.91 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,456.11 0.81 (0.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.69% 0.04
30-yr Bond 4.7950% 0.0310
NYSE Volume 1,484,876,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,216,672,000

1:30 pm : Equities continue to run in place just above the flat line with few catalysts to send them noticeably higher. The market is digesting some additional Fed Speak. However, St. Louis Fed President Poole not commenting on interest rates or monetary policy provides little ammunition for either the bulls or the bears to weigh in with their bias about current valuations.DJ30 +16.18 NASDAQ +4.27 SP500 +0.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1499/1447/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1360/1824/766 mln

1:00 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as traders make their way through the New York lunch hour. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 17-to-13 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. A similarly neutral ratio of up to down volumes further underscores the market's struggles to more aggressively build on two days of solid gains.DJ30 +18.75 NASDAQ +3.60 SP500 +0.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1491/1442/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1375/1761/690 mln

12:30 pm : As presaged in the last comment, the latest read on regional manufacturing activity has influenced today's trading action. At the top of the hour, the Philadelphia Fed index checked in with a reading of just 0.6% (consensus 4.0), nearly showing contraction for the fourth time in six months and initially pushing stocks to afternoon lows.

Most of the survey's indicators were lower this month than in January. However, with the prices paid component holding at relatively low levels, stocks have almost as quickly bounced back in sympathy with an extended rally in Treasuries. The 10-year note is now up 13 ticks to yield 4.68% as traders continue to price in the manufacturing sector's ongoing struggles. Earlier, a report showed that industrial production in January fell by the most in more than a year. DJ30 +16.18 NASDAQ +3.22 SP500 +0.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1561/1350/966 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1442/1668/632 mln

12:00 pm : All three indices are trading in positive territory midday; but gains are modest at best as investors digesting more commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke weigh another decline in oil against mixed economic data and a sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis. After recovering all of last week's declines in one session, now leaving the three major averages up more than 1.2% for the week, it's not surprising to see stocks taking a bit of breather today.

Investors have had a plethora of economic reports to sift through. The NY Empire State Index rebounded from a 19-month low, which is good news for struggling manufacturing sector. However, an unexpected drop in Jan. Industrial Production, due largely to a 0.7% decline in the key manufacturing component, was disappointing, taking away from the optimism of the December data. The market's focus now centers on whether today's Philly Fed, which will be out momentarily, will support the Fed's belief that the current stance of policy fostering sustainable economic growth.

Sector leadership remains split. The day's best performing sector is Consumer Staples, due in part to reports that Anheuser-Busch (BUD 51.77 +1.54) merger talks with InBev. However, the sector's defensive characteristics further underscore the lack of conviction on the part of buyers that recent gains are sustainable with the S&P 500 already up 2.6% just six weeks into the year.

Oil trading near session lows supports the Fed Chairman recently citing lower energy prices as a contributor to decelerating inflation pressures. Crude for March delivery is down 1.2% near $57.20/bbl as warm weather forecasts prompt further consolidation in the commodity. However, a subsequent sell-off in the Energy sector (-1.1%) is acting as an offsetting factor. DJ30 +14.98 NASDAQ +3.71 SP500 +0.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1536/1353/840 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1388/1681/540 mln

11:30 am : The major averages are still struggling to gain much traction after such a healthy two-day sprint for stocks across the board. Meanwhile, investors remain glued to the ongoing Q&A session with Fed Chairman Bernanke; but the absence of any surprises thus far has resulted in minimal conviction on the part of those questioning the sustainability of recent market gains.

Fortunately for the bulls, the positive underlying tone built yesterday on the assumption the Fed is less likely to raise rates anytime soon is keeping consolidation efforts in check.DJ30 +10.57 NASDAQ +2.02 SP500 -0.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1540/1289/690 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1454/1563/430 mln

11:00 am : Recent buying efforts have run out of steam as the indices are back to trading in split fashion. Meanwhile, oil prices have spiked to session lows. Crude for March delivery is now down 1.8% and below $57/bbl as warm weather forecasts prompt further consolidation in the commodity.

However, while oil's pullback plays into Bernanke recently citing lower energy prices as a contributor to diminishing inflation, a subsequent sell-off in the Energy sector (-1.4%) is currently acting as an offset.DJ30 +2.97 NASDAQ +0.18 SP500 -1.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1498/1271/540 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1365/1588/330 mln

[ozymandius]

78. Here's what the Trading Club is doing.

1:53
Dow 12,766.37 Up 24.51 (0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,493.29 Up 4.91 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,456.17 Up 0.87 (0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.698% Down 0.032
NYSE Volume 1,528,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,248,686,000

edited for the blathery headbump with 54anickel

:hi:

[54anickel]

80. Head bumps are always nice! Great minds and all that. n/t

[ozymandius]

82. on the cusp of the Witching Hour

2:58
Dow 12,773.18 Up 31.32 (0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,496.37 Up 7.99 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,457.17 Up 1.87 (0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.70% Down 0.03
NYSE Volume 1,833,299,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,506,715,000

2:30 pm : After being down more than 2.0% and slipping below $57/bbl earlier, a late-day rally in oil now has the March contract on pace to settle in positive territory. While the market’' resilience to volatile trading in oil prices of late remains noteworthy, the fact that Energy is failing to pare any of its 1.0% intraday decline leaves the indices mired in their relatively tight trading ranges.DJ30 +26.64 NASDAQ +6.88 SP500 +1.34 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1504/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1889/900 mln

[Ghost Dog]

87. Highlights from Bernanke's testimony

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/14/news/economy/bernanke_highlights.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007021416

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Following are selected comments from the question and answer session of the semi-annual testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress.

Bernanke was speaking before the Senate Banking Committee.

On inflation

"We haven't had much information on inflation since just two weeks ago, but the recent readings on inflation have been encouraging."

On employment

Asked whether the economy was reaching full employment: "Clearly we are much closer today than we were a few years ago."

On housing market

"I would emphasize that the signs of stabilization are tentative."

"It's early to say that this problem is over. So far the economy has reasonably adapted to this adjustment in the housing market."

On the yen and currency manipulation

"The Treasury and the Federal Reserve have expressed a view that exchange rates ought to be determined in free and open markets. As best as we can tell, the yen's value is being determined in a free, open, competitive market. There is no evidence of any intervention going on. The last time the Japanese purchased dollars was in March 2004. The behavior of the yen appears to be consistent with the monetary policy they are conducting, which in turn are closely related to the state of their domestic economy. So we don't see any manipulation or intervention in the value of the yen.

Bernanke: Economy healthy, but...

/more...

[54anickel]

88. Bwahahaha - look what comes up on a google of "bush economy" today

NY Times Insists Economy Isn't as Good as It Appears
Reporters rely on discredited housing bubble storyline, comparison to tech bubble of 1990s.

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2007/20070213115856.aspx

The day after President Bush’s economic advisers released their official 2007 economic forecast – a story shunted to page C3 – The New York Times cast a pall on the economy, comparing current events to the economy of the pre-dot-com crash of 2000-2001.



The Business Day front pager entitled, “This Expansion Looks Familiar,” suggested that a tenuous “housing bubble” is a cause of the economy’s current strength, a media storyline that has not come to fruition despite five years in the making.



“It’s striking how similar they are,” reporters Eduardo Porter and Jeremy W. Peters quoted Northwestern’s Robert J. Gordon of the 1990s and 2000s economic expansions.



Though the first expansion lasted five more years, the Times was quick to discount this one. “Few economic forecasters expect the current growth cycle to have the length and vigor of the 1990s boom, which continued for 10 years from trough to peak,” read the story.



The reporters turned to a former Clinton adviser to cast a dark cloud on the economy.

more....



And this from Robertson's CBN:
Liberal Lies: Tales from Mainstream Media
By Paul Strand
CBN News

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/104527.aspx



CBNNews.com - One of the biggest successes of the Bush administration has been a thriving, rapidly-growing economy.

But most Americans don't get a chance to know that if they get their news from the major media.

It wouldn't be overstating it to say America's enjoyed a boom economy during most of the Bush presidency.

In fact, a report this week from China's leading news agency points out the U.S. economy has expanded for five straight years now.

But that's not something Americans are likely to hear or read in their own major media.

Or the fact that 7.4 million jobs have been created during the Bush years and unemployment is at just 4.6 percent.about as low as it's likely ever to get.

more....


http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&ncl=1113635872

A lot different than what Dogpile digs up. So, what's up with Google anyway?

[citizen snips]

91. Dow Finishes Up 23, Nasdaq Finishes Up 9

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its February rally Thursday, growing confident that interest rates will hold steady even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tempered his forecast of slowly cooling growth and inflation with a reminder that price pressures remain a concern.

The Dow Jones industrial average stretched its three-day advance to more than 200 points, the first such jump since August 15-17 last year, and had its second straight record close. The rally, triggered Tuesday by signs of an uptick in mergers and acquisitions, was given new life Thursday by a report that the world's two largest beermakers, InBev SA and Anheuser-Busch, are considering joining forces.

The bustle of takeover talk coupled with Bernanke's comments to Congress have helped send stocks soaring. Bernanke's comments Thursday were similar to a day earlier, but he added that inflation could once again pick up, which reminded investors that a rate increase isn't out of the question. That note of caution limited the market's climb.

The prospect of a rate hike looked pretty dim, however, after most of the economic reports released Thursday. The reports showed a big jump in unemployment claims last week, a huge drop in industrial output in January due to large cutbacks and layoffs in the auto industry, and weaker-than-expected manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/wall_street.html?.v=38

[citizen snips]

92. Sector Snap: Brewers Surge

NEW YORK (AP) -- As talk of a merger between Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. and European counterpart InBev SA galvanized beer stocks Thursday, analysts considered whether a union could boost the country's biggest brewer.

Both InBev and Anheuser-Busch have declined to comment on the speculation, sparked by a report in Sao Paulo business daily Valor Economico. The newspaper cited an unidentified source saying InBev had held preliminary merger talks with its U.S.-based rival.

Bank of America Securities analyst Bryan Spillane said the likelihood of a merger was unclear, but that it would be consistent with Anheuser-Busch's desire to "look more aggressively at creating new revenue streams to offset the moderation in its core domestic beer franchise."

U.S. consumers have forsaken domestic beers in favor of trendy spirits drinks and imports, forcing American brewers to pursue acquisitions or new products to take back market share

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/beer_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[Ghost Dog]

97. Yeah. Classic defensive 'bad times' stocks, there. n/t

[citizen snips]

93. Sector Wrap: Railroads Sidetracked

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of the nation's railroads finished lower on Thursday, halting three days of gains by the group.

Shares of CSX Corp. fell $1.33, or 3.1 percent, to close at $40.77. On Wednesday the stock reached a new 52-week high of $42.53, capping a run-up of 13.6 percent over three days.

Shares of Union Pacific Corp. the nation's largest railroad, lost $2.25, or 2.2 percent, to close at $102.24, while shares of western rival Burlington Northern Santa Fe gave up 72 cents to close the session at $82.93. Shares of Norfolk Southern Corp. surrendered 71 cents to finish the day at $51.54. All the stocks trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

The slide happened after a Citigroup analyst on Thursday cut CSX to "Hold" from "Buy" because of its run-up.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/railroads_sector_wrap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

94. Grains Mixed, Soybeans Move Higher

CHICAGO (AP) -- Soybean futures advanced and grains ended mixed Thursday on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for March delivery rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.53 1/4 a bushel; March corn fell 3/4 cent to $4.07 1/2 a bushel; March oats fell 3 1/4 cents to $2.37 1/2 a bushel; March soybeans rose 8 1/4 cents to $7.58 3/4 a bushel.

Beef futures finished mixed and pork futures declined on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

April live cattle rose .13 cent to 96.40 cents a pound; March feeder cattle fell .35 cent to $1.0045 a pound; April lean hogs fell .17 cent to 68.70 cents a pound; March pork bellies fell 2.35 cents to $1.0470 a pound.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/board_of_trade.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

95. Copper Futures Hit 1-Month High

NEW YORK (AP) -- Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded to their highest level in over a month on Thursday amid strong technical support and an influx of Chinese buyers.

Most-active March copper settled up 8.7 cents at $2.6640. During the session the contract rose to $2.69, its highest level since Jan. 11.

Man Financial analyst Edward Meir said in his daily research report that improving Chinese demand has helped to boost copper prices. In particular, he pointed to data showing that China's January imports of refined copper and copper alloy were up 70 percent from the same month a year ago.

April gold settled down 60 cents at $671.40 a troy ounce. March silver settled down 0.3 cent at $13.962 an ounce.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/commodities_review.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

96. Chips Snap: Photronics, Techwell Fall

NEW YORK (AP) -- Semiconductor stocks inched up modestly in Thursday's trading, despite disappointing earnings results from both Photronics and Techwell.

Photronics Inc., a maker of photomasks used in the semiconductor industry, said Wednesday first-quarter profit fell 19 percent, after a new semiconductor and flat-panel display designs were delayed. Excluding a one-time gain, the company earned 13 cents per share, while analysts expected earnings of 16 cents per share, according to a Thomson Financial survey.

First Albany analyst Auguste Richard said the slight first-quarter miss was mainly driven by weak industry conditions, and predicted the cycle may be close to bottoming out.

Still, investors sent shares of Photronics, which have traded between $13 and $20.50 over the last 52 weeks, down $1, or 6.1 percent, at $15.32 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/sector_snap_semiconductors.html?.v=1

[54anickel]

99. Stopping by to turn out the lights - here's the closing for the records

Dow 12,765.01 23.15 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,497.10 8.72 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,456.81 1.51 (0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.71% 0.02
30-yr Bond 4.8040% 0.0220
NYSE Volume 2,497,497,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,029,468,000

4:20 pm : After recouping all of last week's declines in one session (yesterday), leaving the major averages up more than 1.2% for the week and the Dow at historic highs, it wasn't surprising to see stocks look a bit tired throughout most of the session Thursday. Federal Chairman Bernanke was finishing up his second day of testimony to Congress and the day's scheduled economic data were a mixed bag.

Be that as it may, the momentum fueled by diminishing fears of a possible rate hike kept sellers sidelined for one more day as the bulls held on to close the Dow at record levels for the 29th time since October.

Caterpillar (CAT 67.62 +1.46) was the blue-chip index's best performer (+2.2%) as investors applauded its board's approval of a huge $7.5 bln stock buyback. Fellow Dow component Boeing (BA 91.71 +1.77) was another winner, surging 2.0% to an all-time high after confirming a UPS order for 27 freighters. The same couldn't be said for the rest of the Industrials sector, though, which finished relatively flat as an analyst downgrade on CSX Corp (CSX 40.75 -1.35) and mixed economic data left investors questioning valuations.

Before the bell, the February NY Empire State Index rebounded from a 19-month low, which initially provided good news for the struggling manufacturing sector. However, an unexpected drop in January Industrial Production and a disappointing read on the Philly Fed survey acted as offsetting factors.

Of the eight sectors closing higher, Consumer Staples paced the way. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.36 +0.49) surged 1.0% following reports that The Gates Foundation increased its stake about 50% to 1 mln shares last year. Anheuser-Busch (BUD 51.74 +1.51), which is reportedly in merger talks with InBev, also lent some support.

Another defensive-minded sector providing leadership but inadvertently lending less conviction behind today's follow-through efforts was Health Care. HMOs were among today's best performing S&P industry groups (+2.7%) after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in UnitedHealth Group (UNH 53.61 +1.97). Biotech was also in focus as billionaire investor Carl Icahn disclosing a 2.8 mln stake in MedImmunne (MEDI 33.16 +1.91) helped offset a Q4 earnings shortfall from Biogen Idec (BIIB 48.00 -2.49).

Technology also provided some notable leadership, getting a lift from analyst upgrades on Qualcomm (QCOM 41.31 +1.65) and Network Appliance (NTAP 40.30 +1.89).

After falling to as low as $56.65/bbl earlier (-2.3%), a late-day rally in oil closed the March contract relatively unchanged. While the market's resilience to the volatile trading in oil of late has been noteworthy, the fact that Energy failed to participate in paring any of its 1.0% intraday decline further underscored the lack of energy investors as a whole had after a healthy two-day sprint for the market. A Q4 earnings shortfall from Baker Hughes (BHI 65.26 -6.68), the day's worst performing S&P 500 constituent (-9.3%), also weighed on Energy. DJ30 +23.16 NASDAQ +8.72 SP500 +1.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1514/1522/1.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1352/1900/1.36 bln

3:30 pm : The indices continue to trade sideways with only 30 minutes left in the trading day. Buyers still have the upper hand, and follow-through after two impressive days of gains is commendable; but even though the fundamentals remain modestly bullish, we believe the market is getting ahead of itself. As a reminder, since aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500 is slowing to between 5% and 7%, P/E multiples need to expand in order for stock market to build on recent gains. That is highly unlikely in an environment of profit deceleration, flat interest rates and talk of a correction ready to resurface should incoming data run counter to Bernanke's surprisingly dovish tone.DJ30 +26.27 NASDAQ +7.25 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1495/1537/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1384/1862/1.07 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to creep higher, but below average volume is again lending little conviction on the part of buyers. The NYSE has yet to see more than 1.0 bln shares trade hands. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq holds a slight edge over its blue-chip counterparts. The Dow is at historic highs, but it is getting all of its modest 32-point advance from three components.

Boeing (BA 91.56 +1.62) is surging 1.8% to an all-time high after confirming a UPS order for 27 freighters. Caterpillar (CAT 67.70 +1.54) is 2.3% after announcing a huge $7.5 bln stock buyback while United Technologies (UTX 69.21 +1.04) is up 1.5%.DJ30 +31.96 NASDAQ +7.39 SP500 +1.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1400/1600/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1308/1923/970 mln

2:30 pm : After being down more than 2.0% and slipping below $57/bbl earlier, a late-day rally in oil now has the March contract on pace to settle in positive territory. While the market’' resilience to volatile trading in oil prices of late remains noteworthy, the fact that Energy is failing to pare any of its 1.0% intraday decline leaves the indices mired in their relatively tight trading ranges.DJ30 +26.64 NASDAQ +6.88 SP500 +1.34 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1504/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1889/900 mln