France's Sarkozy keeps poll lead before election

[DuaneBidoux]

Source: PARIS (Reuters)

PARIS (Reuters) - French presidential frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy has maintained his lead over Socialist rival Segolene Royal before Sunday's second round election, opinion polls released on Monday showed.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL302367220070430

---

France is poised to elect a right wing pro-Bush president. Unfortunately the socialist candidate is not great but Sarkozy has embraced Bush from the beginning.

[bikebloke]

1. Reliable polls?

I was wondering how reliable the polls are in France. With big business and media behind Scare-kozy, would they slant the polls in his favour? They already attempted to keep the Sego/Bayrou debate off the air.

[Laughing Mirror]

3. Scarekozy! LOL!!

That's a good one. That describes him perfectly. Too bad it doesn't readily translate into French.

I don't know how reliable the polls are either, but they certainly are depressing.

I wouldn't put any dirty tricks past Sarkozy's ruling Scare Party. Recall their recent pre-election jiggling of unemployment figures to a low 8.4% even though the actual correct figure was a less pretty 8.8%, the figure the EU correctly cites.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Polls from the first round were pretty close

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/04/19/leading.pair.reut/

[Laughing Mirror]

7. When you look behind the numbers at the latest poll, it is surprising

For those keeping score: LH2 has Sarkozy at 52%, Royal 48%. As for the voters each candidate can hope to pick up from Bayrou's UDF almost 19% in the run-offs: IFOP has Royal picking up 57% of Bayrou's UDF voters, Sarko 43%, while LH2 has Royal at 55% and Sarko at 45%. It was 50-50 on April 22.

About 20% of the voters are still undecided.

As for how Royal and Sarko will split far right-wing Le Pen's 10% in the run-offs, IFOP has Royal getting 11%, Sarko 89%, while LH2 has Royal getting 26%, Sarko 74%. Of course, the reason Sarkozy did as well as he did do in the run-offs (31%) was because of a large number of Le Pen's Front National voters crossing over and voting for him. Sarkozy had stolen a lot from Le Pen, his xenophobic program and language, and it worked for many of Le Pen's voters, but not the die-hards.

[Solo_in_MD]

2. It looks like Sarkozy has it won

Bear in mind that right wing to France means liberal to the US. Also the entire basis of French foreign policy is opposition to the US and maintaining their neo colonial relationships in Africa. He would not be a poodle.

[Bicoastal]

5. Either way, it's a lose/lose situation for the Right Wing.

They wouldn't want Segolene the Socialist in power, but if their kind were in power, they would dearly miss their right to rag on the French.

[july302001]

17. Sarko is not a U.S. Republican

Good post. Too many people interpret "rightist" in France to mean B*sh-bot. It's definitely not so.

Chirac is a member of Sarkozy's party. Chirac sure didn't follow the U.S. Republican Party line!

If Sarko is elected, France will most definitely keep national health care and will stay very much a secular society.

If the succession goes from Chirac to Sarkozy, France will remain proudly independent of the U.S. and Great Britain - - as it should. The last thing on Sarko's mind is a trip to D.C. to brown-nose with GWHWB Jr.

To be honest, Segolene Royal is "nice, but incompetent." She's kinda clueless. If elected, she would do a lot more harm to France, just through mistakes and silly policies than Sarko would.

I kind of liked Francois Bayrou...too bad he got eliminated in the first round of voting.

[Doctor_J]

29. "rightist" in Europe = Moderate Dem in US

You'd have to go back to the 40's to find a ruling party in Europe as right-wing as today's GOP

[Stockholm]

32. Some call him the Thatcher of France

It is difficult to translate European politics into US politics. Sarkozy would probably be closer to a UK conservative than a republican. One has to admire the way he has turned away from Chirac and the rest. Will be interesting to see just how far he will go to lure the Le Pen-voters to him.

My heart says Royal but I fear Sarkozy might win this election.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Laughing Mirror]

8. The ruling party in France is Sarkozy's right wing party, UMP

It has been this way for 12 years. The UMP is definitely not socialist.

[renegade000]

11. You're right,

I seriously wish some people would bother to actually learn the facts before they automatically interpolate based on their own biased worldview. Granted, the entire political spectrum is shifted somewhat leftward in Europe relative to the US, but still, you're right, to call the UMP socialist is just plain wrong.

[Laughing Mirror]

12. I think somtimes people mistake Europe's broad social security system, available health care, etc ..

for some kind of advanced socialism, when these rights are taken as a given in Europe, whether the country is run by the right wing, such as in France, or by the left, as in Spain. It seems to be a concept hard for many American citizens, who have no real socialized health care system, to understand. But it is true that there is a social safety net in Europe that does not exist in the US. Not even far-right xenophobe Le Pen would ever consider taking away those fundamental rights, at least not from the French citizens, although for the millions of unwanted immigrants, yes.

[Solo_in_MD]

9. He is not really right wing as compared to the US

Here he would be left of center

[bikebloke]

10. A neocon

My impression is that he's not typical of Europe's right, who are closer the the center-left. Scare-kozy seems a younger version of Le Pen. Just sneakier about it. Let's hope if he does get in, that there are enough checks and balances to prevent too much damage. But then look at how our "checks & balances" protected us from Little Lord Prissy Pants & Co.

[sabbat hunter]

13. how much power

does the president of France have?

not a whole lot

"The President has a degree of direct executive power, but most executive power resides in his appointee, the Prime Minister. The cabinet globally, including the Prime Minister, can be revoked by the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, through a "censure motion"; this insures that the Prime Minister is always supported by a majority of the house."

"The President names the Prime Minister, presides over the gouvernement (cabinet of ministers), commands the armed forces, and concludes treaties. The President may submit questions to national referenda and can dissolve the National Assembly.

All his powers are subject to countersigning ("contreseing") by the Prime Minister, except in a few cases such as the dissolution of the National Assembly.<5>

In certain emergencies the President may assume special, comprehensive powers.<6> However, in normal times, the President may pass neither legislation nor regulations, though, of course, if the Parliament is from his political side, he may strongly suggest the adoption of certain legislation, or request his Prime Minister to take such or such regulation.

However, when the President's political opponents control parliament, the President's dominance can be severely limited, as he must choose a Prime Minister and cabinet who reflect the majority in parliament, and who will implement the agenda of the parliamentary majority. When parties from opposite ends of the political spectrum control parliament and the presidency, the power-sharing arrangement is known as cohabitation"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_France



which party controls the parliament in france right now?


peace

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Sarkozy's party controls the parliament

He was the Interior Minister until about a month ago, when he resigned to fight the election. The UMP has 357 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly.

[LeftishBrit]

25. He isn't a neocon, whatever else he is

No one in France is a neocon in the American sense, not even LePen. The real right-wingers in France are ultra-nationalist and the last thing they'd want to do is play second fiddle to American (or any other country's) imperialist adventures. Of the American politicians that I know about, the one who probably most resembles LePen is Pat Buchanan (I believe Buchanan has even written favourably about LePen); and he is in a different, if equally vile, category to the neocons.

As for Sarkozy, he does seem to be more economically right-wing than most French Conservatives; and there are some concerns that he would lead France too much down a Thatcherite path with regard to the economy. This is the big worry about him, from a Europaean perspective. But he does not seem to be ultra-hawkish with regard to foreign policy; and he is certainly not going to jump onto Bush's sinking ship with regard to the war.

[Hieronymus]

21. It's been said that Sarkozy is more Liberal than a US Democrat.

It frightens me that he is so close to Bush though. Chirac is of the same party and cons have been calling Chirac a Socialist.
I'd prefer Royal.

[endarkenment]

14. no

By the way of the major industrialized nations the french have the highest per hour productivity. Democratic Socialism is working just fine in France. As others have noted, the ruling party is Sarkovsky's party. Nice try though.

[Selatius]

16. France is not democratic socialist. It's economy is a mixed bag.

The bulk of French workers do not work within the construct of worker co-ops or work in state-run enterprises. The bulk of French workers work for somebody else in privately owned firms. You could call it more social democratic in nature, but hardly democratic socialist. If you showed me an economy where most workers are also collective owners in the firms they work in, I'll tell you that you found a socialist economy or one that came very close to it in practice.

[endarkenment]

30. I did not mean a pure socialist system.

I meant the more general meaning of a modern mixed economy with an extensive welfare system and pervasive public regulation of the economy.

[yava]

18. down with French socialists

but is it a bad thing that minimum wage in France is 10 $ as opposed to about 5 $ in the US, together with quasi-free health care for all, free schools and nearly free registration at universities, a 150 $/month automatic housing aid to all students?
And yet it is a capitalist country and a democracy currently well respected and not involved in a war of occupation, in contrast to its past colonial practices.

The much mentioned unemployment at 8.8% is in fact less severe than previously as there is a lot of fraud in unemployment benefit claims and immigration and women in France are working almost as often as men (as opposed to Japan and even the US). My guess is that the adjusted unemployment figure would be closer to 6% (of people truly looking for a job and not just pocket money).

In addition, things appear to be getting better, less homeless visible on Paris streets, more business etc.

So, is this really a good time for France to join the Neocon-.. alliance?

[magnus_r]

22. Who would want to do business in France..

.. when the top income tax rate is 50% ? You do the hard work to set up your own business, and the govt simply walks away with 50% of your money ! And then there are taxes for everything else. You sneeze you cough you pay taxes. So why would you want to set up a business or employ people? And the French wonder why their unemployment is so high.

[Selatius]

33. Bah, 50% is nothing. In the 1950s and 1960s, The top US tax rates were 70 percent or higher

During World War 2, the richest people in the country paid a whopping 94 percent tax rate to pay for the war.

But most of those upper tax brackets were aimed at the very wealthy, as opposed to small businesses, and the US economy was performing a lot better than than now, instead of stagnating wages for middle and lower class workers like today. French unemployment is not much different than ours.

The only difference is the Bureau of Labor Statistics underreports unemployment here in the US to make politicians in Washington look good.

[LeftishBrit]

24. What 'current socialist politics?'

Chirac is a Conservative. The government has been Conservative for quite a few years now.

French mainstream Conservatives generally resemble moderate Democrats in America, and have little in common with Bush. But they are not *socialists*.

[tabasco]

26. LMAO !!

You just demonstrated your extreme ignorance!

Nicely done, Old Chap. :rofl:

Back to Limbaugh's stupidity with you!

[Joanne98]

15. The French are getting e-voting machines!

The polls have to match the future phoney numbers.

[daleo]

19. I think Royal will win

The U.S. media always predicts a right wing win, and they are usually wrong. I will be a contrarian, on the strength of that reasoning.

[Canuckistanian]

20. There WILL be more rioting in the ethnic neigborhoods of Paris if he gets in

In fact, he's the reason why so many immigrant youths are voting.

They want him OUT.

[AX10]

23. At least I don't have to vote in this race.

I am not fond of either of the two choices. Sarkozy is really slightly to the left of Bill Clinton. However, he seems too much on making France "America Jr" just as Steve Harper wants to do with Canada.

[hogwyld]

28. Call me a hopeless optimist...

I still think "Sego" can pull this out. Sarko would be a * wannabe by trying to destroy the unions, roll back worker protections, and declare war on immigrants. Hopefully, Sego will re-emphasize the socialist dream that was once France. Re-nationalize the electricity, gas, and transportation sectors, and for Gawd's sake, bring back the 35 hour work week so that people can actually spend time with their families. Emphasize education, and the superiority of their cultural achievments. Don't let France become another nation dictated by hate, but by hope.

[NNguyenMD]

31. wait, I thought the french bitterly hated bush? why would they want to elect some bush poser

[Flagg]

34. Because not everything in France is about Bush

[DuaneBidoux]

35. You're right, everything is not about Bush. But it is hard to underestimate how much he is detested

[Rosa Luxemburg]

36. I thoght the French would have more sense than to elect another neocon