Cell phones put pollsters 'in a muddle'

[LiberalFighter]

Link Online article shows it posted 12/30 but was in 12/31 print edition

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But when an FCC order went into effect last month giving consumers the right to keep their numbers when changing to a new company, the intermixing of landline and wireless numbers confounded the polling industry.

Now, even if pollsters dial what used to be a land line and it turns out to be wireless, they can be sued. The industry has no easy way of distinguishing cell numbers from wired numbers.

Exclusion of a particular socioeconomic, political, racial, geographic or other group can skew poll results, because a reliable poll must draw responses at random from as wide a field as possible.
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The last paragraph of the article states "Polling experts agree that the problem is minimal for now." I would disagree with that. First, who are the polling experts? If the polling experts making the statement are in the business of conducting polls why would they create doubt in their business? Second, cell phones have been around for a long time now and that has to skew the polls. In light of that we should not be dishearten when they come out with their polls.

[Ready4Change]

1. People with cells but no land line

I know plenty of people who no longer have a land line, having switched their communications completely to their cell phones.

So, have the latest polls been biased to a less techically savvy demographic due to this effect already?

[kclown]

2. In a word, yes n/t

[JanMichael]

3. No personal landlines for me. Been that way for three years.

Needless to say I've never been polled on my mobile.

So yes.

EDIT: I have at least 10 friends/co-workers who are the same. Almost all Tech people and mostly all anti-Bush and pretty Liberal.

[TankLV]

8. I am one of them.

Been at least 2 years now.

And they're cheaper than a land line now.

No roaming or long distance charges.

[chasqui]

10. I am one of them

No need for a land line, if you have a cell phone and Cable broadband.
Sock it to the local phone company - they have an obsolete business model. Pretty soon it will also be the cable company, as soon as Verizon gets its act together re. wireless broadband.

[daleo]

4. Response rates in surveys are becoming a big problem

The university that I work for often does surveys of various sorts (or is involved in consortia that do surveys), and response rates are always a concern. Between survey fatigue, call screening, differentials in who is home at different times, and now this, getting a truly random sample is becoming more and more difficult.

Every good survey reported should include the response rate as well as the sample size, but they rarely do. Also, push polling, question order, biased phrasing and other deliberately manipulative techniques put many results into question. Unfortunately, we can trust survey data less and less as time goes on.

[RUexperienced]

5. This problem has been growing for years

but the pollsters don't want to talk about it.

Caller ID and privacy features also are making it difficult.

The only thing pollsters can now say is that "64 percent of Americans- who don't use caller ID or have a land line- feel that Howard Dean is .................."

[w4rma]

6. correction: "… who have a land line *and* don't use caller ID …" (n/t)

[RUexperienced]

7. Its kind of like taking a poll of DUers who have no plans

on New Year's Eve. A lot of fun, but maybe not too representative of the population.

[Melsky]

9. I never thought about that before

I only have a cell phone too. My land line is only to connect to the net.