Debate Fallout Has No Immediate Impact on Clinton Poll Position

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: Rasmussen Reports

Friday, November 02, 2007

Tuesday night’s debate was not Hillary Clinton’s finest moment of the campaign season, but there has been little or no immediate damage to her standing in the national polls. In fact, if anything, support for Clinton has ticked up a bit since she stumbled on an answer to questions about drivers licenses for illegal aliens.

Data from the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that on the two nights following the debate (Wednesday and Thursday) Clinton held a 45% to 18% lead over Barack Obama. For Clinton, that’s an improvement from Monday and Tuesday nights when her lead over Obama had been 40% to 24%. John Edwards was at 10% on the first two nights and 12% on Wednesday and Thursday. Bill Richardson went from 5% to 7% during the same time frames.

Caution must be used in interpreting these results for several reasons.

First, the sample sizes are very small—447 Likely Primary Voters on the first two nights and 435 on the second two nights. The margin of sampling error for each set of data is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. So, Clinton’s gain and Obama’s decline may be nothing more than statistical noise. However, it is fairly safe to conclude that Obama did not immediately gain any ground.

Second, while there was no immediate impact, it is possible that Obama and Edwards will find a way to capitalize on the Clinton stumbles between now and the Iowa caucuses on January 3. In fact, general public awareness of the debate performance may continue to grow on its own over the coming weeks. Additionally, there may be a general election impact as Senator Clinton’s answer supported two enormously unpopular concepts (drivers licenses for illegal immigrants and the comprehensive immigration reform that failed in the Senate).

Third, while there is little or no national fallout from the debate, the impact may be different in early voting state. Clinton currently leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Rasmussen Reports will conduct additional polling in these states over the next two weeks.

Separate survey data shows that political pundits and junkies are likely to overestimate the immediate impact of Clinton’s debate performance. Much of the nation was simply not paying attention....

Read more: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/debate_fallout_has_no_immediate_impact_on_clinton_poll_position

[OwnedByFerrets]

1. I am so

fucking tired of these "polls" that dont reflect what I hear real life people say, and that dont even closely reflect straw polls that are taken in real life events. Thom Hartmann held his Friday straw poll today and the results were 44:1 for Edwards over Clinton. This is much more in-line with my unofficial poll taking.
I just cannot make myself trust "Official" polls any longer.ymmv

[aquart]

11. Most of the population aren't at your "events."

Or hadn't you noticed?

[OwnedByFerrets]

12. How do you explain NATIONAL radio show results

then??

[MethuenProgressive]

2. "support for Clinton has ticked up" No doubt about it. And there's this:

From the OP:
"Separate survey data shows that political pundits and junkies are likely to overestimate the immediate impact of Clinton’s debate performance."

Does Iowa even get MSNBC?

[FatDave]

9. We get MSNBC.

We even have running water and electricity now, too!

[Carrieyazel]

3. Yes, but what's the impact among the Independents, moderate Repubes

who vote in large numbers in a general election?? From what I've seen, the latest negative Hillary coverage has been killing her among these groups. Apparently, Democrats are living in a different world, and won't acknowledge what's going on among the general electorate. That's too bad, because its given us some lousy nominees in the past, who failed to get any significant crossover votes and ended up losing the general election. If Hillary joins that list, we deserve the horrible outcome.

[MethuenProgressive]

5. see below:

Public Gives Clinton Best Odds of Being Elected President

[MethuenProgressive]

4. Gallop shows: Public Gives Clinton Best Odds of Being Elected President

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102481/Public-Gives-Clinton-Best-Odds-Being-Elected-President.aspx#3

I suppose someone will say Gallup is 'rigged'...

[Mark E. Smith]

7. It is a conspiracy you know

There's a straw poll that proves it.


:silly:-{quack!}

[Gman]

6. I didn't think it would matter

no one watches those debates anyway.

[ccpup]

8. this says it all

"Separate survey data shows that political pundits and junkies are likely to overestimate the immediate impact of Clinton’s debate performance."

DU is not the Voice of America and I suspect most of the country was completely tuned out of the Debate and are getting info here and there of it's aftermath. I also think that many families are just too damn busy trying to put "food on their families", in the words of *, to even begin thinking about paying attention right now.

It's easy on DU to immediately crow from the rooftops "that's it! she's done! she's cooked! ain't gonna happen no how no way for her now!", but the reality is that people aren't really paying attention yet and, therefore, this DU attitude isn't going to be reflected in the Polls.

[brooklynite]

10. If that was a stumble, she could use more of them...

As a result of everyone "beating up" on Hillary, she got nearly half the debate time, kept her cool, had an answer for almost every question, and got toughened up for what the Republicans will throw at her.