Clinton Slips in Iowa Poll

[spotbird]

Source: Washington Post




By Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, November 19, 2007; 5:01 PM

The top three Democratic contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key fronts, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama gets the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared to 26 percent for Clinton, 22 percent for former senator John Edwards and 11 percent for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The results are only marginally changed from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the course for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama -- and harbingers of concern for Clinton.


Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

[derby378]

1. The lesson learned? Pride goes before a fall...

Now the Hillary campaign has to act like it actually wants to win this thing.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

2. I just read that

One part that stood out most to me was this:

Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55 percent reported that a "new direction and new ideas" are their top priority, compared with 33 percent who favored "strength and experience." That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change and 39 percent experience.

[shaniqua6392]

3. I sure hope we are right that a "new direction, etc."

will not come back and bite us in the ass because he does not have experience.

[Maven]

4. Nor does he offer real change.

Only the rhetoric of change.

But I guess a lot of people are buying it.

[eyeontheprize]

6. You might have a point,

who do you think does represent change?

[Maven]

10. For my money?

Dennis Kucinich, without a doubt.

[eyeontheprize]

5. He has about as much as Clinton

I've never accepted that her husband's job qualifies as experience.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

7. Actually, I wasn't looking at that with any one candidate in mind

I was simply looking at how the past few months have strengthened their feelings for a new direction and new ideas.

Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55 percent reported that a "new direction and new ideas" are their top priority, compared with 33 percent who favored "strength and experience." That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change and 39 percent experience.

[L0oniX]

12. Can anyone be worse than Bush? Hard to imagine that.

[humbled_opinion]

22. AHEM ! ...

Maybe not worse it is hard to imagine.. Maybe not as moronic, In fact the country could not exist with another Bush... However, Clinton is from the same mold and is just as divisive a political figure as Bush. Imagine the hatred that the Repukes will spew with her in the WH. To them she is Satan incarnate. America really needs a fresh change. It needs Obama or Edwards they are the fresh candidates the ones that speak to real americans not D.C. punditry.

[Andy823]

27. I agree

I am an Edwards supporter, but Obama is my second choice. I think either one will give us more "change" than Clinton will, and that is what this country needs right now, a "change"! Not a "little" change, or a long drawn out process of "trying to change, but big change, and it needs to start from day one for the next president.

Big corporations need to know that the "people" have spoken, and politicians need to know that if they don't do the will of the people, they will be looking for a new job. Lobbyists need to be removed from the halls of congress "no lobbyists on the floor when congress is in sesseion! We need new, tougher laws on the money that congress gets from the lobbyists, and every penney they get needs to be made public for everyone to see.

[humbled_opinion]

38. In Fact

Obama recently gave a speech about making all information available on the internet to have an American Discussion before passing laws or signing executive orders. He said that he would make any congressional lobbying action open and viewed by the public no more secret energy meeting in the VP office... I love it... It would make avg Americans feel like they were part of their government again.. A govt of by and for the people.

[calteacherguy]

24. What experience does Clinton have?

I've never understood that argument.

And Obama has experience community organizing, teaching constitutional law, and being a U.S. Senator. Plus, he has a better feel for the rest of the world because he's lived it.

What kind of experience do you want???

[MrMonk]

8. Six weeks from now, I'll care.

Isn't it too early to parse differences of 4%?

[suston96]

9. The details.......

No change in Hillary from back in July in the Post poll. Not leaving Hillary, it seems. Obama got his jump from Edwards.

NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 30 27
Hillary Clinton 26 26
John Edwards 22 26

It wasn't Hillary who "slipped". It was Edwards.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_111907.html

[Yukari Yakumo]

29. Oh... nice catch.

Hill isn't slipping at all. Instead Edwards is spiraling downward and Obama is snarfing up his former supporters.

[earthlover]

33. Then it was not smart of Hillary to attack Edwards in the debate!

More people leaving edwards for Obama as a result I would guess.

[sueh]

11. Off to the Greatest Page...

Finally, the MSM has to pay attention to the fact that the primary process is just beginning and the possibility that Hillary may not win in Iowa.

[earthlover]

34. Hillary won't win iowa....she will not win a single primary. nt

But after losing all the primaries, the media will say....quite predictably...that Hillary is still standing, there was no knockout punch....Hillary proves that she is the front runner....sarc

[sallyseven]

13. Washington Post and ABC

Very fair and balanced. Gotta trust that combo. I don't trust either of them. Washington Post and ABC are republican apologist.

[Joanne98]

14. Edwards is going to win!

[Voltaire99]

15. ABHRC: Anybody But HRC

Any slip of hers is a joy.

We may not be able to get her in leg irons at the Hague for abetting the neocons on Iraq. But we can keep her out of the White House. That may be the most important function both Obama and Edwards can now serve in the poisoned post-democratic landscape: foiling Clinton by damaging her campaign irreparably.

[EV_Ares]

18. If it is change the people really want, then it is not going to be Hillary

in the White House. A long way to go to see who is going to come out of this in both parties.

[downindixie]

16. I had rather have a honest man in office

who makes mistakes than idiot in office who doesn't know he made a mistake!

[Auggie]

17. I want one who will represent people -- not corporations.

[OhioChick]

35. You and Me Both. n/t

[speedoo]

19. So much for inevitability.

Fortunately, people in Iowa are paying attention, and discerning between hype and reality.

[humbled_opinion]

20. America really does want ...

and really does need Change... Obama/Edwards.... Vote for change ..

[CANDO]

21. Iowans, please-please-please don't saddle us with Hillary.

I don't hate her. I think she makes for a very good Senator. I just don't think she is what this country needs. I can't stand this Bush/Clinton cycle we are stuck in. And I think she would govern from the center right just as her husband did on so many issues. And the corporate media is doing all they can to shove her down our throats, because they know the hatred for her will guarantee all the distraction they need for the status-quo to prevail. Obama or Edwards will work wonders for this nation to get back on solid progressive footing. And I think a Hillary administration would doom us to Congress flipping back to the right. It may not be her fault, but she has too many negatives to exploit.

[DutchLiberal]

26. I don't think Obama and Edwards are really progressive.

The closest they come, is *sounding* progressive... occasionally.

[humbled_opinion]

39. I kind of understand where you are coming from being a Dennis supporter

myself ... but Obama and Edwards are more likely to carry the General and although Dennis is the more progressive candidate if he doesn't make it to the General at least Obama should offer him a high level cabinet position

[DutchLiberal]

51. If he doesn't make it, I wouldn't know who to support, really.

I had written off Edwards because of his vote for the Iraq War Resolution, but at least he appeared to have learned from his mistake because it seems he wants to avoid war with Iran at all costs (unlike HRC). But his anti-corporations rhetoric sounds phony to me, given his involvement in hedge funds and his past of taking corporate money.

I considered Obama, because at least he didn't have the baggage of the vote for the Iraq War (although he voted to continue to fund the war) and he seemed the most progressive after Kucinich-Gravel-Edwards (although I never considered Gravel a serious candidate), but after what he did with the 'cured gay man' (forgot his name), I wouldn't vote for him.

Maybe Biden. He is intelligent and has a lot of experience. But what does experience mean if you still let Bush convince you to vote for IWR?

Luckily, I don't have to, because I'm not allowed to. :P

Obama will never offer him a high cabinet position. Nor will Edwards or any other candidate. They don't like Dennis. He forces them to take more progressive stances, at least in the primaries, at least in their rhetoric and they hate that.

[lovuian]

23. Didn't you know the Polls would tighten up

Its Anybody's election

[MannyGoldstein]

25. Resistance is Fut... Uh... Oh @#%&!

Polls mean virtually nothing at this point - but it's amusing anyway.

[natrat]

28. good i hope that republican freak gets her ass kicked down to the gutter perverbially

[humbled_opinion]

40. LOL...

[Yukari Yakumo]

30. Something odd about WaPo's polls...

Here's something interesting...

In regards to the earlier poll, the adjacent polls tell different stories.

University of Iowa (most likely caucus goers only) (8/5) - Edwards 26.0%, Clinton 24.8%, Obama 19.3%
Hart (D)/McLaughlin (R) (8/3) - Edwards 30%, Clinton 22%, Obama 18%
ABC/WaPo (7/31) - Obama 27%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 26%
ARG (7/30) - Clinton 30%, Edwards 21%, Obama 15%
Research 2000 (7/25) - Edwards 27%, Clinton 22%, Obama 17%

Iiiiinteresting. Back then, WaPo showed Obama with a slim lead. However, all the other polls showed him way behind. Only ARG showed Clinton leading, the rest had Edwards ahead.

Now for today...

WaPo (11/18) - Obama 30%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 22%
KCCI Des Moines (11/14) - Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, Edwards 21%
ARG (11/14) - Clinton 27%, Obama 21%, Edwards 20%

Hmmm...

Now, if the past is any indication, WaPo's numbers for Edwards and Clinton is about on par with the rest, but WaPo's numbers for Obama are way over-inflated. I'm tempted to say it is happening again.

[creeksneakers2]

31. I'm happy to see that if Hillary loses votes

she loses them to Obama and not Edwards.

[Evergreen Emerald]

32. I would like to know the date of the polls. I think they reflect the

prior debate and ensuing massive negative publicity of Clinton. I wonder, since she rebounded after the last debate if there will be a change in a few weeks. And, if so, I expect Biden to gain as well as Clinton with both Obama and Edwards declining.

[NoodleyAppendage]

36. Thank the non-existent cloud being! Slide to oblivion baby...

With Clinton out of the way we actually have a better than 50/50 chance of taking the WH in 2008. Cold fact, but true and most around here and in the country know it.

J

[humbled_opinion]

41. Yep and sad to say that with Clinton winning the Primary we virtually have no

chance at taking the WH in 08.... She is very divisive and would drag the party down in the election... All her bagage is enough for any responsible Democrat to pass on her.... Its time for REAL CHANGE... OBAMA/EDWARDS....

[NoodleyAppendage]

44. Not to mention that the Repuke playbook for 2008 is Clinton-centric.

It would be quite hard for the Repukes to attack Obama without appearing racist (which they are), which in turn will only inflame the African-American vote for Dems.

J

[Scriptor Ignotus]

37. glad to see it

but I don't trust any of these polls.

[DWilliamsamh]

42. GOOD!!!

THANK GOD!! People are finally waking up to the FACT that she has only 8 years in the Senate and is one of the biggest corporate whores in the Democratic party. Funds raised by Rupert Murdoch? Are you kidding me? She's slightly left of Joe Lieberman. I hope this is the start of a long winter of discontent for Ms. Clinton.

[Ken Burch]

43. Shouldn't the headline of this thread be "Obama LEADS Clinton in Iowa"?

I'm not an Obama supporter at this point, but it DOES matter that the poll shows him with more support than HRC.

[onetinsoldier]

45. hillary in the white house

the main reason i am against hillary getting the nomination and being elected is the unbelievable hate ,discord and rancor it will unleash from the wingnuts,it will be 24/7 of hate radio and tv,it will paralize the country

[leftynyc]

49. How about

the unbelievable hate ,discord and rancor she creates right here on the left? Frankly, I don't think anyone would be safe from the hate from the right - it's just their way.

[regnaD kciN]

46. Silly Iowans...

...don't you realize Hillary is INEVITABLE????? :sarcasm:

[allisonthegreat]

47. signs of things to come...

boo ha!

[boricua79]

48. good

I'd much rather see someone like Edwards or Obama win Iowa....and even still, I'd rather see someone like Kucinich or Dodd in the White House.

But, if the odds are on the side of Edwards, Clinton, and Obama, I'd rather that the other two be more lucky.

As much as I'd like to be part of the "return to the Clinton years" and "a first woman president" bandwagon, something about Hillary really strikes me as not positive. To paraphrase Stephen Colbert, I just don't feel her in my "gut".

[BenDavid]

50. TO ALL HRC SUPPORTERS:

Let the Obama folks have their place in the sun for today....But know of all the polling done from folks like nbc, cbs,cnn, fx, rasmussen, etc etc HRC leads in all those polls....The one thing to look for is the time period this poll and others were taken. All polling was done during the same time frame. So, ABC has obama ahead by 4. Hey that is okay.....BUT

When ABC takes their next poll and it shows HRC back in the lead I want the say uproar and coverage, but we all know this will not happen. When a news organization like CNN I will use as an example makes this a top story, they belittle their own polling, and do not even put up their own polling to show the race in Iowa is in flux....Oh you can believe the msm will make a hell of a story with this and disregard their own poll showing HRC ahead.

So, let the Obama folks have their day in the sun because they have been in the dark for so long I say everyone needs a lil sunshine and today will be about the only day Obama will see light... Now notice the date of the following polls:

KCRG-TV9 Iowa Poll Results - November 19 2007 Hillary Clinton 27%

Barack Obama 25%

American Research November 19th Clinton 27% Obama 21%



Ben David

[ckramer]

52. People finally realized that Hillary is a closet republican in many ways

Vote Obama!

[ckramer]

53. Obama and John should join force!

A winning ticket!